Stochastic-fuzzy multi criteria decision making for robust water resources management

All realistic Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problems in water resources management face various kinds of uncertainty. In this study the evaluations of the alternatives with respect to the criteria will be assumed to be stochastic. Fuzzy linguistic quantifiers will be used to obtain the uncertain optimism degree of the Decision Maker (DM). A new approach for stochastic-fuzzy modeling of MCDM problems will be then introduced by merging the stochastic and fuzzy approaches into the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) operator. The results of the new approach, entitled SFOWA, give the expected value and the variance of the combined goodness measure for each alternative, which are essential for robust decision making. In order to combine these two characteristics, a composite goodness measure will be defined. By using this measure the model will give more sensitive decisions to the stakeholders whose optimism degrees are different than that of the decision maker. The methodology will be illustrated by using a water resources management problem in the Central Tisza River in Hungary. Finally, SFOWA will be compared to other methods known from the literature to show its suitability for MCDM problems under uncertainty.     

Elision and Infiltration Waters in the Northern Caspian

Elision and infiltration groundwater of the Northern Caspian basin are described. It is shown that a zone of elision brines with a high formation pressure exists under the Caspian Sea. These brines are shown to penetrate from below the Caspian Sea into the underground beds, carry fluids, and facilitate the formation of hydrocarbon fields.     

Formulation of the Caspian Sea’s legal regime using a joint zone approach

The legal regime of the Caspian Sea has been determined under Treaties 1921 and 1940 by and between Iran and former Soviet Union. In fact, we are neither to explain it nor to determine. As understood from the provisions therein, the exploitation and use of the Caspian Sea by both countries are based on the Condominium. However, there is a 10-nautical mile strip as exclusive fishing areas which have been allocated to the states under the 1940 treaty. It means that Soviet Union and Iran may benefit the marine livings resources out of that strip on an equal manner. This right also includes the seabed and underlying bed. So, the legal regime of this sea may be based on a 10-nautical mile exclusive region for all five states and the remaining part as common and joint area under an agreement until an explaining and supervising organization is established to exploit and supervise over living and non-livings resources.     

Macro- and microelements in the interstitial water of deep-water areas of the Southern and Middle Caspian Sea

The results of determinations of macro- and microelement concentrations (Mn, Fe, Ba, Sr, Rb, Si, Pb, and U) in the interstitial water in four cores of bottom sediments sampled in the deep-water areas of the Southern and Middle Caspian Sea are compared with the concentrations of these elements in the free water of the Caspian Sea. The data obtained amplify the present-day concept on the geochemical and ecological states of the sea.     

A Nonlinear Model of Level Variations in the Caspian Sea

A new thermophysical mechanism of the Caspian Sea level variations is proposed. The mechanism incorporates the effect exerted on the dynamics of the water budget of the Caspian Sea by the nonlinear dependence of the evaporation rate on the moistening of the basin.     

The response of river mouths to large-scale variations in sea level and river runoff: Case study of rivers flowing into the Caspian Sea

Regularities in the response of the mouths of major rivers, flowing into the Caspian Sea, to large-scale variations in its level and river water runoff and sediment yield are considered. Changes in the morphological structure and hydrological regime of the Volga, Terek, Sulak, Ural, and Kura mouths have been analyzed in both geological past and separately for three modern periods: a considerable drop in Caspian Sea level before 1978, its abrupt rise in 1978–1995, and a relative stabilization in the subsequent years. Specific features were identified in the hydrological-morphological processes in different mouths, caused by the differences in river sediment yields, and the slopes of delta surface and mouth nearshore beds. Some theoretical and methodological approaches were verified in the analysis and evaluation of the processes under consideration. The obtained results of studies of the mouths of rivers flowing into the Caspian Sea can be regarded as examples and analogues in the assessment of processes, which take place at the mouths of other Russian and world rivers at present and can take place in the future under anticipated natural and anthropogenic variations in sea level and river runoff.     

Long-Term variations in water levels in the Volga mouth area and their dependence on the Caspian Sea level variations

Long-term water level variations in the Volga mouth area and the effect exerted on them by the river’s flow and the Caspian Sea’s level variations are considered. Quantitative relationships were identified between the mean annual water levels at different gages in the mouth and the sea level. A backwater component was isolated in the long-term variations in water level in the Volga mouth area. Relationships between the daily water levels in the mouth and the Caspian Sea’s level at fixed water flow in the delta apex are presented. The magnitude and the propagation distance of backwater from the sea into the delta are specified. The responses of the mouth areas of rivers emptying into the Caspian Sea to sea level variations in the past century are compared.     

Hydrological and morphological processes at river mouths of the Caspian Sea Region as possible analogs of expected changes of mouths of other rivers in Russia and the world

Present changes in the regime and structure of mouths of rivers, which empty into the Caspian Sea, are discussed. The similarities and differences of these processes at the mouths of different rivers of the Caspian Region were revealed. Assessment was made of the impact of changes in river water runoff and sediment load and in the Caspian Sea level as well as the nearshore zone relief and local hydraulic engineering activities on the processes under study. Anomalous features of the processes occurring at the mouths of the Volga and Terek rivers were revealed and explained. Hydrological and morphological processes typical of the present mouths of the rivers of Ural, Sulak, and Kura were revealed; these processes could be accepted as universal and possible analogs in assessing the expected changes at the mouths of other rivers in Russia and the world in the XXI century.     

Studying Long-term Variations in the Caspian Sea with the Use of the Theory of Stochastic Differential Equations

Nonlinear mechanisms of long-term variations in the Caspian Sea level are described. It is shown that with account taken of the dependence of the evaporation depth from the Volga basin surface on soil moisture content and the dependence of the evaporation depth from the sea surface on its level, we obtain a fundamentally new (chaotic) oscillation mechanism with several attraction levels. The stochastic differential equations describing the water budget of the sea basin and the sea proper and the respective solutions of the Fokker–Planck–Kolmogorov equation are shown to have stationary bimodal density of the level probability. The random process, characterizing the sea level variations at a nonlinear dependence between the evaporation rate and the level is found to be non-Gaussian. Noise-induced transitions, caused by nonlinear evaporation processes are described. A new nonlinear stochastic theory describing the Caspian Sea level variations and based on predicted physical effects is suggested.     

Present-day changes in water consumption in the Caspian Sea basin

Indices characterizing the withdrawal of water resources in the basins of rivers flowing into the Caspian Sea and the use of these resources in different economic sectors in 1970–2003 are analyzed. The dynamics of disposal of wastewaters and collector-drainage waters is discussed. Tendencies in changes in the volumes of consumptive water use in the basins of individual rivers and the Caspian Sea as a whole are identified.     

Variations in wind direction and speed from arctic to the Caspian Sea as a manifestation of modern climate changes

The regularities in present-day variations in the wind speed vector are examined at 18 stations along the section from Kola Peninsula to the Caspian Sea. Data on long-term variations in the major climate-forming factors and climatic parameters are generalized. The statistically significant tendency toward a considerable decline in the wind speed with a maximum module and the most frequent wind speeds of zonal, mostly western, directions (this tendency has been revealed earlier for the eastern coast of the middle and southern Caspian Sea) was found to hold for the greater part of the European Russia. Possible causes of present-day climate changes and their manifestations at the regional level are analyzed. A possible mechanism of present-day climate changes is proposed     

The Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea and the New-Euxinian basin of the Black Sea

The Late Pleistocene history of the Caspian and Black seas is considered. It is suggested that the New-Euxinian basin was to a great degree due to the penetration of the Caspian water through the Manych depression into the Black Sea during the Caspian-Early Khvalynian transgression.     

Nonlinear dynamics of level variations in the Caspian Sea

Caspian Sea level variations, which have several equilibrium states, are studied by the methods of the theory of nonlinear dynamic systems. Normal monthly values of sea level according to data collected at Makhachkala gauge from 1900 to 2000 are considered. The diagnostic characteristics of dynamic chaos are used to show that sea level variations have some properties of series with chaotic behavior. A model of level variations in the Caspian Sea, comprising a system of water balance equations for the sea basin, the dynamics of river runoff, and water balance of the sea itself, is proposed. Equation of a nonlinear oscillator is derived and shown to have solutions with chaotic regimes at some combinations of parameters.     

Biomass development and production created by microorganisms of lower trophic levels in the caspian sea ecosystem: Analysis of mathematical modeling results

The biohydrochemical features of the Caspian Sea ecosystem were estimated for its ten water areas with the use of a mathematical model describing the transformation of compounds of organogenic elements (C, Si, N, and P) and taking into account the morphometric characteristics of the water areas and long-term mean monthly values of the major characteristics of the aquatic environment. Variations in the estimated concentrations of mineral and aggregated biogenic substance fractions, microorganism biomasses (heterotrophic bacteria, three phytoplankton groups and two zooplankton groups) in different water areas of the sea were analyzed. The formation conditions of microorganism biomasses in different water areas are characterized by the analysis of their bioproductivity estimates based on evaluated internal biogenic substance fluxes.     

Regime of water balance components of the Caspian Sea

The results of studying the hydrological regime of the Caspian Sea and its basin climate in observation period 1945–2010 are generalized. The results of analysis of the regime of precipitation, air temperature in the Caspian Sea basin and its level, as well as Volga runoff in periods of Caspian Sea level rise and drop are given. The conformity in variations of the trends in Caspian Sea level its basin climate is demonstrated, and the direction of further studies is substantiated.     

Current Variations in the Wind Speed Vector and the Rate of Evaporation from the Caspian Sea Surface

Regularities in the rearrangement of the surface atmospheric circulation in the Caspian Sea region are studied. It is found that during the current rise in the Caspian Sea level, a statistically significant decrease in the wind speed modulus occurred (mainly in autumn and winter winds of zonal directions). This caused a decrease in the rate of evaporation in the region. The results of this study testify to a need for developing a deterministic model of current variations in the Caspian Sea water regime at varying global and regional climate.     

A hydrologic contribution to risk assessment for the Caspian Sea

The Caspian Sea (CS), the world's largest inland sea, may also be considered as large-scale limnic system. Due to strong fluctuations of its water level during the 20th century and the flooding of vast areas in a highly vulnerable coastal zone, economic and environmental risk potentials have to be considered. Since the major water input into the CS is attributed to the Volga river, the understanding of its long-term flow process is necessary for an appropriate risk assessment for the CS and its coastal area. Therefore, a top-down approach based on statistical analyses of long-term Volga flow series is pursued. For the series of annual mean flow (MQ) of the Volga river basin during the 20th century, a complex oscillation pattern was identified. Analyses for multiple gauges in the Volga river basin and Eurasian reference basins revealed that this oscillation pattern resulted from the superposition of oscillations with periods of ∼30 years (MQ) in the western part of the Volga river basin, and ∼14 years (flow volume of snowmelt events) and ∼20 years (flow volume of summer and autumn) in the eastern part of the Volga river basin (Kama river basin). Almost synchronous minima or maxima of these oscillations occurred just in the periods of substantial changes of the Caspian Sea level (CSL). It can thus be assumed that the described mechanism is fundamental for an understanding of the CSL development during the 20th century. Regarding the global climate change, it is still difficult to predict reliably the development of the CSL for the 21st century. Consequently, we suggest an ongoing, interdisciplinary research co-operation among climatology, hydrology, hydraulics, ecology and spatial data management.     

Numerical Simulation of the Caspian Sea Circulation Using the Marine and Atmospheric Research System

The Marine and Atmospheric Research System (MARS) for the Caspian Sea meteorological characteristics is presented, which is implemented in Zubov State Oceanographic Institute. It includes computation of the atmospheric forcing with the Weather Research and Forecasting model, as well as computation of currents, sea level, temperature, salinity and sea ice with the Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model and the computation of wind wave parameters using the Russian wind-wave model. The results are presented on verification of the hydrometeocharacteristics simulated with the MARS for the Caspian Sea. As well, the retrospective simulation of the thermohydrodynamic characteristics in this basin is performed with MARS for the ice-free period 2003–2013. The important features of the Caspian Sea circulation are shown.     

History and Causes of Variations in the Caspian Sea Level: the Miopliocene, 7.1–1.95 Million Years Ago

It is shown that the awareness of the regularities and causes of variations in the Caspian Sea level from the moment of its origin as an isolated lake basin in the Late Miocene (7.2 mln years ago) is of great importance for paleohydrology. Out of the seven principal hydrologic stages of the Caspian Sea history, four stages are considered in this paper: two lake stages (the Late Miocene and Middle Pliocene), the intermediate stage when the Caspian and Zanklinian basins were connected, and the stage of the Manych runoff. An important fact in the Caspian Sea history is emphasized: penetration of the Akchagylian fauna forebears into the Caspian Sea Basin through the Black Sea and the nowadays nonexistent Kuban–Terek Channel (between 5.3 and 3.3 mln years ago). Three phases of penetration of the Mediterranean Zanklinian fauna into the Caspian Basin are recognized. The channel became closed during the Middle Pliocene phase of the Great Caucasian Range elevation (3.3–2.5 mln years ago). This isolation of the Caspian Basin caused the formation of the Great Akchagylian Lake. Its water washed out the New Manych Channel 2.5 mln years ago. From this moment on, the events that occurred in the Caspian Basin and in the Black and Mediterranean seas can be correlated in greater detail, link by link, within the 413-thousand-year period of water abundance.     

Basic Aspects of a Methodological Approach to Assessing the Seismic Resistance of Soils

A method is proposed for assessing the seismic resistance of soils, involving the analysis of seismic data (with soil conditions taken into account), the choice and specification of amplitude–frequency spectrum parameters, experimental studies of soil samples with specified cyclic load parameters, analysis of the dependence of soil behavior on the overload factor, and calculating the ultimate overload factor based on the comparison of accepted and ultimate effect levels. The paper gives the results of practical application of the developed approach to assessing the seismic resistance of a shelf area in the Northern Caspian Sea.