SLEUTH城市扩展模型的应用与准确性评估

基于多时相TM遥感影像,利用SLEUTH模型对沈阳市1988~2004年间的城市扩展过程进行了模拟。采用ROC曲线、多分辨率误差估算和景观指数3种方法对SLEUTH模型在总体预测能力、城市扩展数量、空间位置和空间格局上的模拟准确性给予全面定量评估。结果表明,SLEUTH模型具有可信精度,对城市扩展总体趋势拟合较好,但是对城市扩展空间位置的预测和城市空间格局的表达还有待于提高。     

中国地级市收缩识别及其驱动力分析

以全国地级市行政单元内的常住人口增长率作为城市收缩量化标准,从国家、胡焕庸线、四大经济区3个不同尺度分别识别2000-2010年,中国地级市收缩情况,并进行二元logistic回归分析探讨其收缩原因。结果表明:2000-2010年,中国共有86个地级市发生收缩;胡焕庸线以东地区的收缩地级市数量远高于胡焕庸线以西地区的,中部的湖北省和西部的四川省地级市收缩现象最为突出;显著影响中国地级市收缩的因素有以下5点:人口老龄化、城市初期经济发展水平与速度、居民人均收入、产业结构变化及城市内部环境和社会服务设施的优劣,地级市收缩原因表现出明显的地域差异性。     

夜间灯光遥感对城市发展类动能与相似性评估

评估城市发展水平与制定城市规划和城市发展政策息息相关.已有研究表明人口、国内生产总值(GDP)等统计数据和夜间灯光遥感数据能够用来衡量城市发展水平,但大多研究只关注城市发展总量,忽视了发展速度对城市发展的影响.因此,本文基于2012年—2019年Suomi NPP-VIIRS(Suomi National Polar-...     

城市群经济发展水平综合评价指标体系及方法研究—以中原城市群为例

在全球化和区域经济一体化的背景下,区域之间的竞争已经演变成以中心城市及其周边紧密结合所形成的城市群之间的竞争.城市群已经成为区域参与全球分工、竞争和合作的重要经济实体.本文构建了城市群经济发展水平综合评价指标体系,利用AHP法确定了各指标的权重,提出了综合评价模型.以中原城市群为例,利用2004年和2007年两个发展时...     

Understanding the interplay between bus,metro, and cab ridership dynamics in Shenzhen,China

The most common mass transit modes in metropolitan cities include buses, subways, and taxicabs, each of which contribute to an interconnected complex network that delivers urban dwellers to their destinations. Understanding the intertwined usages of these three transit modes at different places and time allows for better sensing of urban mobility and the built environment. In this article, we leverage a comprehensive data collection of bus, metro, and taxicab ridership from Shenzhen, China to unveil the spatio‐temporal interplay between different mass transit modes. To achieve this goal, we develop a novel spectral clustering framework that imposes spatio‐temporal similarities between mass transit mode usage in urban space and differentiates urban spaces associated with distinct ridership patterns of mass transit modes. Five resulting categories of urban spaces are identified and interpreted with auxiliary knowledge of the city's metro network and land‐use functionality. In general, different categorized urban spaces are associated with different accessibility levels (such as high‐, medium‐, and low‐ranked) and different urban functionalities (such as residential, commercial, leisure‐dominant, and home–work balanced). The results indicate that different mass transit modes cooperate or compete based on demographic and socioeconomic attributes of the underlying urban environments. Our proposed analytical framework provides a novel and effective way to explore the mass transit system and the functional heterogeneity in cities. It demonstrates great potential for assisting policymakers and municipal managers in optimizing public transportation facility allocation and city‐wide daily commuting distribution.     

Manifestation of Remote Sensing Data in Modeling Urban Sprawl Using the SLEUTH Model and Brute Force Calibration: A Case Study of Sana’a City, Yemen

Sana’a the metropolitan capital of Yemen, has experienced rapid spatial growth and uncontrolled development for decades. In the absence of a means to forecast and predict urban growth trends, planning and urban policy decisions have been found wanting. In this study the SLEUTH (Slope, landuse, exclusion, urban extent, transportation and hillshade) model which has been widely and successfully applied in developed countries, has been applied to predict the spatial urban sprawl pattern from 2004–2020 in Sana’a. This was to provide the necessary forecast for better planning and decision making. The model performed well as per the calibration coefficient values. The results showed that there will a 29 % increase in spatial urban sprawl growth during the modeling period. Growth of the sprawl will be mainly at the edges of the urban boundary, there will also be a wide area of scattered urban clusters. Factors that will have major influence on spatial expansion of the city will be diffusion, natural and internal growth, slope (that will hinder spread) and transportation (along which most of the urban sprawl will occur). The study also provides an insight into how the SLEUTH model performs in a poorly planned urban environment as compared to the planned and controlled environment where it has been applied.     

基于NPP-VIIRS夜光遥感数据的京津冀城市群空间结构变化分析

本文基于NPP-VIIRS夜光遥感数据对京津冀城市群2015—2019年的空间结构进行分析,通过灯光值统计、城市位序-规模法则、空间关联测度等方法探究京津冀城市群空间结构及时空变化特征,结合城市总体规划浅析时空变化的原因。结果表明：①京津冀城市群灯光总量整体呈上升趋势,北京市和天津市的灯光增长率最高,其次为河北省廊坊市和石家庄市。②灯光集中分布在高位序城市北京和天津,中小城市不够发达。从时间序列上看,中小型城市快速发展,京津冀各城市有趋于ZIPF理想状态分布的态势。③随着区域交通一体化的推进,城市间的关联度整体增强,北京市与天津市的总体关联度占主导地位,但北部城市与中南地区的交通联系不足,关联度较弱。     

浙江城市群人口与用地规模的时空分异结构演变研究

结合夜间灯光与城市统计数据,应用城市位序-规模法则及人地异速生长模型,初步分析了浙江人口分布及人地关系,考虑到人口增长的特征,提出了加入滞后效应的修正模型,对浙江城市群长期的发展展开了动态研究.研究结果表明,浙江城市群结构体系较为成熟,但是随着经济发展,城市首位度逐步提高,人口逐渐呈现聚集状态;浙江城市群中的杭州、宁波...     

京津冀城市群空间集聚与扩散发展态势

城市群已经成为我国城镇化的主要载体,城市群的发展不仅主宰着国家经济发展的命脉,也主导着中国新型城镇化的未来,因此,城市群已成为当前城市与地理科学的热点研究领域,不同学科学者分别从各自的学科角度展开相应研究,且大多为针对发展较早的长三角、珠三角城市群的研究,但针对京津冀城市群的空间要素的发展特征及其发展态势的实证研究尚不多见。京津冀城市群是除长三角、珠三角城市群之外的国内第三大经济体,是我国北方重要的城镇密集区,也是我国的政治、文化和科技中心。因此,本研究从人口、经济、产业三大空间要素入手,重点分析京津冀城市群空间要素集聚与扩散的发展特征及其发展态势,以期丰富对我国城市群空间结构及形态的实证研究。     

Spatial Differences in Multi-Resolution Urban Automata Modeling

The last decade has seen a renaissance in spatial modeling. Increased computational power and the greater availability of spatial data have aided in the creation of new modeling techniques for studying and predicting the growth of cities and urban areas. Cellular automata is one modeling technique that has become widely used and cited in the literature; yet there are still some very basic questions that need to be answered with regards to the use of these models, specifically relating to the spatial resolution during calibration and how it can impact model forecasts. Using the SLEUTH urban growth model ( Clarke et al. 1997 ), urban growth for San Joaquin County (CA) is projected using three different spatial grains, based on four calibration routines, and the spatial differences between the model outputs are examined. Model outputs show that calibration at finer scaled data results in different parameter sets, and forecasting of urban growth in areas that was not captured through the use of more coarse data.     

The Co‐evolution of Residential Segregation and the Built Environment at the Turn of the 20th Century: A Schelling Model

To what degree does the built environment of cities shape the social environment? In this article we use a Schelling‐like agent‐based model to consider how changes to the built environment of cities relate to changes in residential segregation by income and ethnicity. To develop this model we exploit insights from a high resolution historical GIS which maps 100% of the population of Newark, NJ in 1880. Newark in 1880 had a complex social landscape characterized by areas of significant social and economic segregation and areas of relative integration. We develop a Schelling model capable of reproducing these residential patterns. We use this model to explore the decentralization of housing, a specific phenomenon associated with the demise of the walking city in the late 19th century. Holding agent preferences constant, but allowing the landscape of the Schelling model to evolve in ways that reflect historical changes to the built environment, produces changes to the social landscape that are also consistent with history. Our work suggests that changes in residential segregation do not necessarily imply changes to individual attitudes and preferences. Changes in residential segregation can be generated by changes to the built environment, specifically the geographic distribution of housing.     

南昌市二手房价格影响因子的空间异质性

以安居客网站爬取的2018年10月894个南昌市住宅小区二手房价格为研究对象,利用地理加权回归模型探讨了建筑特征、邻里特征、区位特征等方面各影响因子对住宅价格的作用差异.研究结果表明:1)地理加权回归(GWR)模型的拟合结果优于OLS模型,将回归系数结果空间可视化发现南昌市二手房价格影响因子具有空间异质性.2)不同因子...     

基于新闻中地名共现网络的中原城市群中尺度结构特征探测

本文以中原城市群为研究区,构建了新闻中地名共现网络,并搭建了探测城市网络社区结构和核心-边缘结构的方法框架。结果表明：①中原城市群被划分为5个社区,省级界线在虚拟网络空间城市的交互中起到了较大的阻碍作用;②在河南省城市所组成的核心-边缘结构中,核心城市围绕郑州呈斜"L"形分布;③中原城市群内郑州的中心地位较突出,洛阳的副中心地位不明显,整体多中心水平较低。基于以上结果,本文从区域规划、城市角色定位等方面给出了建议,对于中原城市群的一体化集成与发展有一定的促进作用。     

Modelling future impacts of urban development in Kuwait with the use of ABM and GIS

During the last six decades, Kuwait has experienced rapid and unprecedented population growth with only a small increase in the urban areas. The alarming rise in urban density in Kuwait has caused issues for the residents' lifestyles, the economy and the environment. These issues have been aggravated by urban planning which perpetuated a city‐centric urban form without modelling the impacts of current patterns of urban growth. A spatial model using Agent Based Modelling (ABM) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) is proposed to model disaggregate future changes in land‐use patterns given forecast population estimates and planning policies. The two main impacts considered are housing shortage and traffic congestion, as these are the two most significant social impacts for Kuwaitis. This article discusses the design methodology and parameterization of the ABM and the agent groups. It characterizes urban growth by rules for different citizen groups, historical growth patterns and the influence of decision‐makers. The model is validated against data for the period 1995‐2015 and simulations run to 2050; the results predict that continued city‐centric growth will aggravate the problems, with more than 50% increase in housing shortage and congestion unless the government intervenes to rectify the situation.     

成渝城市群城市建设用地扩张格局及规模体系分析

基于1990—2018年六期城市建设用地监测数据,本文利用城市用地年面积增长率指数、公共边测度、核密度估计、位序-规模法则等方法,刻画成渝城市群扩张演化特征及其发展规律,并对城市群规模体系进行分析。结果表明:成渝城市群城市建设用地扩张呈先快后慢的趋势,空间上呈"中部高速,南北低速"的特点,建设用地扩张密度高值主要集中在成都、重庆二市且城市群内部连片发展不明显。城市群新增城市用地呈现无序蔓延态势,并未趋于紧凑。2000—2010年,成渝城市群规模分布极化,呈现明显的双核首位特征,2010年后规模分布由非均衡趋于均衡。     

Study on forecast scenarios for simulation of future urban growth in Shenyang City based on SLEUTH model

The SLEUTH urban growth model was used to simulate future urban growth patterns and to explore potential environ-mental impacts of urban development under different conditions of development in Shenyang City, China. The SLEUTH model was calibrated with historical data (1988-2004) extracted from a time series of TM satellite images, and the future growth was pro-jected out to 2030 assuming three different policy scenarios: (1) current trends scenario (Scenario CT), (2) regional policy and ur-ban planning sce...     

A comparative study on four major cities in Northeastern Thailand using urban land density function

Urban land density is an important factor to understand how cities expand. An “Inverse S-shape Rule” was implemented for the first time to analyze urban land density in Northeastern Thailand using the four cities Khon Kaen, Udon Thani, Nakhon Phanom, and Nong Khai as study sites. Land density function was tested using different data classification techniques from previous studies. Each city was investigated over two different time periods between 2002 and 2015. Declining pattern characteristics of metropolitan area density outward from city centers can be quantified by fitting the parameters to urban land density functions. An inverse S-shape function was identified as the best data fit. The four selected cities showed conventional density variation for decline in urban land area from city centers to outlying areas. Overall trend indicated that cities became more compact over time since the density differences between the urban core and urban fringe were greater with increasing infilling growth within the urban boundary. All four cities increased in size over time; however, the increasing amount of built-up land in the surrounding rural areas did not follow the same trend in each case. Some functional parameters required careful interpretation because of the linear shape of the city as in the case of Nakhon Phanom. Using highly detailed urban data resulted in lower densities of urban areas compared to the conventional pixel-based classification, and this affected the overall shape of the inverse S-shape function. The fitted parameters and their changing trends indicated that the urban land density function was useful for understanding urban form and urban sprawl in Thailand. Results can be used to develop a specific framework for other cities with similar attributes in the future.     

基于Creator/Vega的居民小区仿真系统的实现

虚拟现实为真实景观的再现提供了有效手段,对于城市规划和城市的可持续发展有着非常重要的意义.本文以城市居民小区为原型,Creator、Vega为开发平台,采用层次型数据结构,完成了小区仿真模型的构建以及优化,并实现了小区的实时漫游.     

基于DMSP-OLS和珞珈一号夜光遥感影像的粤港澳大湾区城市空间格局演变

夜光遥感影像数据可有效反映城市空间格局变化。本文基于1992—2012年的DSMP-OLS夜光遥感影像和2018年的珞珈一号遥感影像,利用分层阈值法提取粤港澳大湾区内各城市建成区;通过计算平均灯光强度、平均灯光增长速率、城市建成区面积、城市建成区增长速率、城市重心、城市重心偏移距离等一系列指数,揭示区内各城市的空间格局演变过程。研究结果表明:①1992—2018年,粤港澳大湾区的城市规模大幅增长,沿珠江口两侧形成了以澳门、广州、深圳和香港为核心的倒“U”形城市群,并呈辐射状向周边扩张。②以珠江口为界,粤港澳大湾区东部各个城市的发展水平整体高于西部各个城市,广州、深圳、香港等核心城市发展水平明显高于江门、肇庆、惠州等外围城市。③1992—2018年,粤港澳大湾区建成区的增长速率由小变大,最后逐渐趋于稳定,2002—2007年是城市扩张最迅猛时期。④1992—2018年,粤港澳大湾区的各城市重心迁移方式表现为3种类型:持续向区域中心迁移;持续向相邻城市邻接区迁移;持续向海洋方向迁移。大部分城市的重心迁移方向呈“震荡”特征。     

云南漾弓江流域城乡聚落形态信息提取与分形分析

利用 1996年 2月和 1999年 11月的TM影像 ,通过对漾弓江流域的遥感影像的光谱特征分析 ,建立地物光谱模型 ,提取区域城乡聚落的时空分布信息。在此基础上 ,根据分形几何理论计算漾弓江流域城乡聚落不同时段空间形态的分形维数 ,从其变化分析流域内聚落空间形态的特征。结果表明 ,欠发达地区城乡聚落空间形态具有分形现象 ,并且城市与农村集镇的分形维数变化不一致 ,1996年丽江地震和 1998年大丽线的开通加速了丽江城和鹤庆城的发展 ,使其形态趋于复杂、不稳定性增大。