Framework for assessing probability of exceeding a specified liquefaction-induced settlement at a given site in a given exposure time

This paper presents a framework for assessing the probability of exceeding a specified liquefaction-induced settlement at a given site in a given exposure time. This framework deals not only with the effect of liquefaction (in terms of settlement) but also with probabilistic characterization of all possible ground motions at a given site (in terms of a joint distribution of a_max and M_w). Additionally, a new concept, referred to herein as liquefaction-induced settlement hazard curve, is introduced for assessing the annual rate of settlement exceedance at a given site. This settlement hazard curve concept has the potential to be a very useful tool in the field of geotechnical earthquake engineering. Satisfactory results are obtained in the demonstration examples analyzed with the proposed framework. Whereas the proposed framework is simple and effective, further refinements to this framework, especially on the treatment of epistemic uncertainty, are warranted.     

A genetic algorithm approach for assessing soil liquefaction potential based on reliability method

Deterministic approaches are unable to account for the variations in soil’s strength properties, earthquake loads, as well as source of errors in evaluations of liquefaction potential in sandy soils which make them questionable against other reliability concepts. Furthermore, deterministic approaches are incapable of precisely relating the probability of liquefaction and the factor of safety (FS). Therefore, the use of probabilistic approaches and especially, reliability analysis is considered since a complementary solution is needed to reach better engineering decisions. In this study, Advanced First-Order Second-Moment (AFOSM) technique associated with genetic algorithm (GA) and its corresponding sophisticated optimization techniques have been used to calculate the reliability index and the probability of liquefaction. The use of GA provides a reliable mechanism suitable for computer programming and fast convergence. A new relation is developed here, by which the liquefaction potential can be directly calculated based on the estimated probability of liquefaction (P _L ), cyclic stress ratio (CSR) and normalized standard penetration test (SPT) blow counts while containing a mean error of less than 10% from the observational data. The validity of the proposed concept is examined through comparison of the results obtained by the new relation and those predicted by other investigators. A further advantage of the proposed relation is that it relates P _L and FS and hence it provides possibility of decision making based on the liquefaction risk and the use of deterministic approaches. This could be beneficial to geotechnical engineers who use the common methods of FS for evaluation of liquefaction. As an application, the city of Babolsar which is located on the southern coasts of Caspian Sea is investigated for liquefaction potential. The investigation is based primarily on in situ tests in which the results of SPT are analysed.     

A study on the identification of liquefaction-induced failures on ground surface based on the data from the 1999 Kocaeli and Chi-Chi earthquakes

One of the major causes of earthquake damage is liquefaction. However, it doesn't result in severe harm unless it leads to ground surface damage or ground failure. Therefore, prediction of potential for ground surface damage due to liquefaction is one of the important issues in microzonation studies for liquefaction-induced damage in areas with high seismicity. In 1985, based on a database compiled from Chinese and Japanese earthquakes, Ishihara considered the influence of the non-liquefied cap soil on the occurrence or non-occurrence of ground failure (mainly sand boiling), and proposed an empirical approach to predict the potential for ground surface damage at sites susceptible to liquefaction. However, some investigators indicated that this approach is not generally valid for sites susceptible to lateral spread or ground oscillation. In this study, a contribution to improve the approach by Ishihara is made. For the purpose, an index called liquefaction severity index (LSI) and data from two devastating earthquakes, which occurred in Turkey and Taiwan in 1999, were employed. The data from liquefied and non-liquefied sites were grouped and then analysed. Based on the observations reported by reconnaissance teams who visited both earthquake sites and the results of the liquefaction potential analyses using the filed-performance data, a chart to assess the potential for ground surface disruption at liquefaction-prone areas was produced. The analyses suggest that the procedure proposed by Ishihara is quite effective particularly for the occurrence of sand boils, while the bounds suggested in this method generally may not be valid for the prediction of liquefaction-induced ground surface disruption at sites susceptible to lateral spreading. The chart proposed in this study shows an improvement over the Ishihara's approach for predicting the liquefaction-induced ground surface damage. The microzonation maps comparing the liquefaction sites observed along the southern shore of Izmit Bay and in Yuanlin, and the surface damage and non-damage zones predicted from the proposed chart can identify accurately the liquefaction (sand boiling and lateral spreading) and no-liquefaction sites.     

Evaluation of generalized linear models for soil liquefaction probability prediction

A soil deposit subjected to seismic loading can be viewed as a binary system: it will either liquefy or not liquefy. Generalized linear models are versatile tools for predicting the response of a binary system and hence potentially applicable to liquefaction prediction. In this study, the applicability of four generalized linear models (i.e., logistic, probit, log–log, and c-log–log) for liquefaction potential evaluation is assessed and compared. Eight liquefaction models based on the four generalized linear models and two sets of explanatory variables are evaluated. These models are first calibrated with past liquefaction performance data. A weighted-likelihood function method is used to consider the sampling bias in the calibration database. The predicted liquefaction probabilities from various models are then compared. When liquefaction probability is small, the predicted liquefaction probability is sensitive to the regression models used. The effect of sampling bias is more marked in the high cyclic stress ratio region. The eight models are finally ranked using a Bayesian model comparison method. For the generalized linear models examined, the logistic and c-log–log regression models are most supported by the past performance data. On the other hand, the probit and c-log–log regression models are much less applicable to liquefaction prediction.     

FOSM在水平场地液化概率评价中的应用

为了更好地进行场地液化评价,将可靠度理论引入水平场地液化概率评价中。以标准贯入试验(SPT)实测数据的统计分析结果为基础,用一次二阶矩法(FOSM)建立水平场地液化概率评价模型,分析了测试数据变异系数对抗液化安全系数与液化概率的影响,并建议了水平场地液化概率评价标准。实例分析表明,新建水平场地液化概率评价模型各参数的物理意义与统计指标明确,相比传统的确定性分析方法,不仅能判定液化的发生与否,还能给出液化发生的概率,这为进行基于风险分析的抗震设计提供了可能。     

Assessing probability of surface manifestation of liquefaction at a given site in a given exposure time using CPTU

This paper is a follow-up to a previous paper on the subject of liquefaction potential index (LPI), a parameter that is often used to characterize the potential for surface manifestation of liquefaction at a given site subjected to a given shaking level (represented by a pair of peak ground surface acceleration a_max and moment magnitude M_w). In the previous paper by Juang and his coworkers, the LPI was re-calibrated for a piezocone penetration test (CPTU) model, and a simplified model based on LPI was created for computing the conditional probability of surface manifestation of liquefaction (P_G). In this paper, the model for this conditional probability P_G is extended into a complete framework for assessing the probability of surface manifestation of liquefaction in a given exposure time at a given site subjected to all possible ground motions at all seismic hazard levels. This new framework is formulated and demonstrated with an example site in 10 different seismic regions in the United States.     

Explicit integration of bounding surface model for the analysis of earthquake soil liquefaction

This paper presents a new plasticity model developed for the simulation of monotonic and cyclic loading of non‐cohesive soils and its implementation to the commercial finite‐difference code FLAC, using its User‐Defined‐Model (UDM) capability. The new model incorporates the framework of Critical State Soil Mechanics, while it relies upon bounding surface plasticity with a vanished elastic region to simulate the non‐linear soil response. Stress integration of constitutive relations is performed using a recently proposed explicit scheme with automatic error control and substepping, which so far has been employed in the literature only for constitutive models aiming at monotonic loading. The overall accuracy of this scheme is evaluated at element level by simulating cyclic loading along complex stress paths and by using iso‐error maps for paths involving change of the Lode angle. The performance of the new constitutive model and its stress integration scheme in complex boundary value problems involving earthquake‐induced liquefaction is evaluated, in terms of accuracy and computational cost, via a number of parametric analyses inspired by the successful simulation of the VELACS centrifuge Model Test No. 2 studying the lateral spreading response of a liquefied sand layer. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Historical sand injections on the Mediterranean shore of Israel: evidence for liquefaction hazard

The abundant silt and sand along the coastal plain of Israel have long been considered susceptible to liquefaction, but previous searches have failed to find field evidence for it. We report the first finding of typical liquefaction features and silty sand injections in trenches that were excavated behind a fourth century Byzantine dam on the Taninim Creek, some 850 m inland of the Mediterranean shore. The trenches revealed a series of flame-shape injections of silty sand that penetrate the overlying clay-rich soil. The injections are largest and most frequent within several meters of the point where the dam is badly damaged on the seaward side, which we interpret as a possible result of a large wave. Three features make the sand injections special: (1) their lower extent is commonly asymmetric with dominant southeastward vergence, away from the breach in the dam, (2) zigzag shapes characterize the upper parts of many injections, and (3) the size and frequency of the injections diminish gradually with distance from the dam until they completely disappear some 100 m away from it. We suggest that the sand injections can be explained by overpressure that was induced either directly by earthquake shaking or by a tsunami wave that breached the dam, filled the reservoir behind the dam and increased the pressure on the water-saturated silt and sand layers and triggered liquefied sand injections. The movement of water sloshing back and forth in the lake accounts for the zigzag shape of the injections. The similarity to structures that were observed in Thailand after the great 2004 tsunami and other palaeotsunami observations lead us to prefer the tsunami origin of the liquefaction features. Based on the stratigraphic position, the archeological context, and the historical accounts, we suggest that an earthquake of November 25, 1759 is the most plausible trigger of the sand injections, either directly or via earthquake-induced tsunami. The observations demonstrate the vulnerability of the densely populated coastal plain to liquefaction.     

A conceptual approach for assessing the impact of climate change on groundwater and related surface waters in cold regions (Finland)

A literature review of the impacts of anticipated climate change on unconfined aquifers is presented, along with a conceptual framework for evaluating the complex responses of surface and subsurface hydrology to climate variables in cold regions. The framework offers a way to conceptualize how changes in one component of the system may impact another by delineating the relationships among climate drivers, hydrological responses, and groundwater responses in a straight-forward manner. The model is elaborated in the context of shallow unconfined aquifers in the boreal environment of Finland. In cold conditions, climate change is expected to reduce snow cover and soil frost and increase winter floods. The annual surface water level maximum will occur earlier in spring, and water levels will decrease in summer due to higher evapotranspiration rates. The maximum recharge and groundwater level are expected to occur earlier in the year. Lower groundwater levels are expected in summer due to higher evapotranspiration rates. The flow regimes between shallow unconfined aquifers and surface water may change, affecting water quantity and quality in the surface and groundwater systems.     

A Bayesian approach to calibrating apatite fission track annealing models for laboratory and geological timescales

We present a new approach for modelling annealing of fission tracks in apatite, aiming to address various problems with existing models. We cast the model in a fully Bayesian context, which allows us explicitly to deal with data and parameter uncertainties and correlations, and also to deal with the predictive uncertainties. We focus on a well-known annealing algorithm [Laslett, G.M., Green, P.F., Duddy, I.R., Gleadow. A.J.W., 1987. Thermal annealing of fission tracks in apatite. 2. A quantitative-analysis. Chem. Geol., 65 (1), 1-13], and build a hierachical Bayesian model to incorporate both laboratory and geological timescale data as direct constraints. Relative to the original model calibration, we find a better (in terms of likelihood) model conditioned just on the reported laboratory data. We then include the uncertainty on the temperatures recorded during the laboratory annealing experiments. We again find a better model, but the predictive uncertainty when extrapolated to geological timescales is increased due to the uncertainty on the laboratory temperatures. Finally, we explictly include a data set [Vrolijk, P., Donelick, R.A., Quenq, J., Cloos. M., 1992. Testing models of fission track annealing in apatite in a simple thermal setting: site 800, leg 129. In: Larson, R., Lancelet, Y. (Eds.), Proceedings of the Ocean Drilling Program, Scientific Results, vol. 129, pp. 169-176] which provides low-temperature geological timescale constraints for the model calibration. When combined with the laboratory data, we find a model which satisfies both the low-temperature and high-temperature geological timescale benchmarks, although the fit to the original laboratory data is degraded. However, when extrapolated to geological timescales, this combined model significantly reduces the well-known rapid recent cooling artifact found in many published thermal models for geological samples.     

Problems in the application of the SSHAC probability method for assessing earthquake hazards at Swiss nuclear power plants

From 2000 to 2004 a large scale probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PEGASOS) was created and performed as a research project, sponsored by the Swiss NPP utilities to improve the assessment methodology for seismic risk in support of the plant-specific seismic PRAs. The project followed the methodology of the SSHAC [Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC), 1997. Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. NU-REG/CR-6372] procedures at its most elaborate way—level 4. Before practical implementation was to occur, a detailed review was performed including validation tests and analysis of uncertainty propagation. This paper presents the main results of the review. The review revealed that current PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis) methodology as based on logic trees, in conjunction with the SSHAC procedures, potentially leads to a significant overestimation of the seismic hazard in areas with low seismic activity due to the inherent possibilities of unconstrained accumulation of uncertainties. The preliminary results of the project did not pass any of our logical geological–scientific benchmark tests used in our attempts to perform a validation process of the PEGASOS analysis method. Some of the problems encountered are of generic nature and shall be studied carefully before making the decision of whether or not the Swiss nuclear power industry will adopt the recommended use of SSHAC-procedures as a basis for the evaluation of the seismic hazard for individual nuclear power plant seismic PRA without correction.     

Analytical definition of collapse surface in multiaxial space as a criterion for flow liquefaction occurrence

Prediction of flow liquefaction occurrence in multiaxial stress space is presented in this paper. The closed-form relation analytically attained by means of Dafalias-Manzari constitutive equations gives the flow stress ratio as a function of model parameters, state parameter, direction of undrained loading and especially initial condition of consolidation. These proposed flow condition can predict the occurrence of flow liquefaction initiated by any loadings whether the soil is consolidated isotropically or anisotropically. Suggested predictions are compared with the results of triaxial tests performed on Hostun RF sand. The results show that increasing consolidation stress ratio leads to flow stress ratio increase.     

Modification of the liquefaction potential index and liquefaction susceptibility mapping for a liquefaction-prone area (Inegol,Turkey)

Although some liquefaction assessment methods were proposed to evaluate the liquefaction potential of sandy soils, the conventional method based on the standard penetration test (SPT) has been commonly used in most countries and in Turkey. However, it alone is not a sufficient tool for the evaluation of liquefaction potential. The liquefaction potential index was proposed to quantify the severity of liquefaction. Nevertheless, the liquefaction potential index and the severity categories do not answer the question: "Which areas will not liquify?" Besides, the categories do not include a "moderate" category; on the other hand, the "high" and "low" categories are included. This situation is also contrary to the nature of classification schemes. In this study, the liquefaction potential index and the liquefaction potential categories were modified by considering the existing form of the categories based on the liquefaction potential index. While the category of low was omitted, the categories of moderate and "non-liquefied" were adopted. A factor of safety of 1.2 was assumed as the lowest value for the liquefaction potential category of non-liquefied. In addition, the town of Inegol in the Marmara region became the case study for checking the performance of the liquefaction potential categories suggested in this study.     

A geochemical and statistical approach for assessing heavy metal pollution in sediments from the southern Caspian coast

The nearshore marine environment of the Caspian sea is a major repository for toxic metals originating from various sources. Since the persistent toxic metals pose serious health risks this research concentrated on investigating the concentrations and spatial distribution of metals in the nearshore sediments along the Iranian coast of the Caspian sea. Fourteen sampling sites were selected along the coast and approximately 400 g of surficial sediments were obtained. Samples were sieved and three grain size fractions from each sample plus fourteen bulk samples were selected for the analysis of metals. Laboratory analysis of the samples utilized the Cold Acetic protocol, followed by Inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy. The statistical techniques were used to analyze all obtained data. Linear regression analysis demonstrated that grain size of the sediments was not a major factor controlling the concentrations and spatial distributions of heavy metals. Box and Whisker plots emphasized that metal concentrations were not homogeneously distributed. Discriminant analysis was also proved to be useful in identifying geographic areas where heavy metal concentrations occur along the coast.     

A one-dimensional integral approach to calculating the failure probability of geotechnical engineering structures

This study focuses on the geotechnical engineering structures with implicit or unknown expressions of performance functions. A one-dimensional integral approach (ODIA) consisting of sampling, evaluation of statistical moments for multivariable functions, probability density function fitting, and simple integration of failure probability was developed through system integration. A convergence study of an illustrative example was conducted, and the error analysis revealed that the accuracy of ODIA is equivalent to that of the second-order reliability method. Applications of ODIA to a slope and surrounding rock of an excavation were presented to further confirm the accuracy, efficiency, and practicability of the approach.     

最近20年地震中场地液化现象的回顾与土体液化可能性的评价准则

回顾了1994年美国Northridge地震、1995年日本阪神地震、1999年土耳其Kocaeli地震、1999年台湾集集地震、2008年中国汶川地震、2010年智利Maule地震、2010～2011新西兰Darfield地震及余震、2011年东日本地震中大量的、不同类型的液化实例调查与研究,发现这些地震的液化具有以下特点：（1）罕见的特大地震（Mw9.0）使远离震中300～400 km的新近人工填土发生严重的大规模液化;（2）特大地震（Ms8.0、Mw8.8）使远离震中的低烈度Ⅴ～Ⅵ度地区发生严重液化;（3）海岸、河岸附近地区的新近沉积冲积、湖积土,填筑时间不到50年的含细粒、砂砾人工填土,容易发生严重液化;（4）天然的砂砾土层液化发生严重液化;（5）发生了深达20 m的土层液化现象;（6）松散土层液化后可以恢复到震前状态并再次发生液化;（7）高细粒（粒径≤75 ?m）含量≥50%或高黏粒（粒径≤5 ?m）含量≥25%的低-中塑性土严重液化,对介于类砂土与类黏土之间的过渡性态土,有时地表未见液化现象;（8）液化土层的深度较深或厚度较小时,容易出现地面裂缝而无喷砂现象;有较厚的上覆非液化土层时,场地液化不一定伴随地表破坏。液化实例证明,第四系晚更新世Q3地层可以发生严重液化;黏粒含量不是评价细粒土液化可能性的一个可靠指标;低液限、高含水率的细粒土易发生液化,采用塑性指数PI、含水率wc与液限LL之比作为细粒土液化可能性评价的指标是适宜的。综合Boulanger和Idriss、Bray和Sincio、Seed和Cetin等的液化实例调查与室内试验研究成果,建议细粒土液化可能性的评价准则如下：PI ＜12且wc/LL＞0.85的土为易液化土,12＜PI≤20和/wc/LL≥0.80的土为可液化土;PI ＞20或wc/LL＜0.80的土为不液化土。     

气压对观测井水位的影响及校正方法

地下水监测能为有效管理地下水资源提供重要信息。大气压力对观测井水位有着重要影响,正确地分析这种影响可以有效判别地下水的流向,判断含水层的性质、识别井筒存储效应（well bore storage effects）和井薄壁效应(well skin effects), 计算包气带中空气的扩散度等。随着现代化监测仪器的推广使用,高质量的监测数据为分析气压对观测井水位的影响提供了基础和保障。系统分析了不同类型含水层中井水位对大气压力的响应模式,并对校正气压对水位影响的方法进行了分析和讨论。最后,以北京平原区两口监测井为例,运用多元回归反卷积方法分析了气压对井水位的影响,并对井水位进行校正。结果表明该方法能有效地分析和校正观测井水位中的气压影响。     

Geological and archaeological evidence for post-Roman earthquake surface faulting at Cibyra,SW Turkey

The NE–SW-trending Burdur–Fethiye fault zone is one of the major active fault zones of southwestern Turkey and the ancient city of Cibyra is located on this zone. Segments of the Burdur–Fethiye fault zone have ruptured in the historical period and during the 20th century. A detailed investigation in the ancient city of Cibyra showed the presence of faults sinistrally offset sitting rows of the stadium up to 50 cm. In addition, there are broken corners of blocks, collapsed walls, broken columns, and tilted and toppled blocks in existing major buildings in the city centre. Field observations showed that fractures and associated damage at Cibyra were produced by a post-Roman earthquake, possibly during the 417-A.D.-earthquake which had an intensity of 9 on the MSK scale.     

A possible continuum theory for densification and liquefaction of saturated sand

A previously developed continuum theory of granular media is applied to the problems of densification and liquefaction of saturated sand. An expression for the free energy of saturated sand is developed. The process of densification of sand subjected to cyclic shear stress is studied and several expressions for an increase of the solid volume fraction are obtained and discussed. The problem of the initial liquefaction of saturated sand samples under cyclic shear stress is then considered and several criteria relating the shear stress amplitude, over-burden pressure, time to liquefaction, and physical properties of the sand sample are established. Some semiempirical relations for field applications are also presented.     

A new approach for estimating the transverse surface settlement curve for twin tunnels in shallow and soft soils

Increasing demand on infrastructures has led to increased attention to shallow soft ground tunneling methods in urbanized areas. Especially in metro tunnel excavations, it is important to control the surface settlements which are observed before and after excavation, which may cause damage to surface structures. Unlike motorway, sewage and other infrastructure tunnels, metro tunnels generally have to be excavated as twin tunnels and must have a larger diameter. Metro tunnels also have shallow depth. Due to their shallow depth, metro tunnels generally have been constructed in weak rocks or weak soils in cities. The construction of twin tunnels will generate ground movements which have the potential to cause damage to existing surface and subsurface structures. To solve this settlement problem, experts have used the Earth pressure balance machine (EPBM) and the slurry balance machine. In such excavations, especially in twin tunnels, the main challenges for constructers are estimating the maximum surface settlement, controlling the interaction of transverse surface settlement and shaping the settlement curve. Incorrect estimation of these parameters can lead to significant problems above the tunnels and in nearby structures. This paper focuses on surface settlement measurements, on the interaction of twin tunnel transverse surface settlement and on the relationship between shield parameters and transverse surface settlement for parallel tunnels using EPBM shields in clay and sand soils in shallow depth. Also, a new equation is proposed for estimating the transverse settlement curve of twin tunnels. The results from this proposed equation are compared with the results of field observations. The transverse settlement curve values obtained from the proposed equation have good agreement with the actual results for the Otogar–Kirazli metro case studies.