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1.
This geoarcheological study investigates soil stratigraphy and geochronology of alluvial deposits to determine Holocene landscape evolution within the Hot Creek, La Jara Creek, and Alamosa River drainage basins in the San Juan Mountains of Colorado. Geomorphic mapping and radiocarbon dating indicate synchronicity in patterns of erosion, deposition, and stability between drainage basins. In all three basins, the maximum age of mapped alluvial terraces and fans is ~ 3300 cal yr BP. A depositional period seen at both Hot Creek and the Alamosa River begins ~ 3300 to 3200 cal yr BP. Based on soil development, short periods of stability followed by alluvial fan aggradation occur in the Alamosa River basin ~ 2200 cal yr BP. A period of landscape stability at Hot Creek before ~ 1100 cal yr BP is followed by a period of rapid aggradation within all three drainages between ~ 1100 and 850 cal yr BP. A final aggradation event occurred between ~ 630 and 520 cal yr BP at La Jara Creek. These patterns of landscape evolution over the past ~ 3300 yr provide the framework for an archeological model that predicts the potential for buried and surficial cultural materials in the research area.  相似文献   

2.
The use of landscape evolution models in mining rehabilitation design   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Landscape evolution models can be useful tools for the evaluation of rehabilitation designs for post-mining landscapes. When calibrated for the erodible material, landscape evolution models can predict sediment loss over entire landscapes (i.e. tonnes/hectare/year), method of erosion (i.e. slope wash, gullying) and also where on a hillslope erosion is likely to occur. The models provide the ability to examine simple hillslopes through to complex whole landscapes. These models can also be used for a probabilistic risk assessment of rehabilitation design for high-risk situations such as tailings dams. Importantly, unlike other erosion models they allow the eroded landscape to be visualised. This paper outlines the capabilities of the SIBERIA landscape evolution model for the rehabilitation of mining landscapes and proposes a probabilistic approach for risk assessment and site stability.  相似文献   

3.
During the Neogene and Quaternary, tectonic and climatic processes have had a profound impact upon landscape evolution in England and, perhaps as far back as 0.9 Ma, patterns of early human occupation. Until the Late Miocene, large-scale plate tectonic processes were the principal drivers of landscape evolution causing localised basin inversion and widespread exhumation. This drove, in places, the erosion of several kilometres of Mesozoic cover rocks and the development of a regional unconformity across England and the North Sea Basin. By the Pliocene, the relative influence of tectonics on landscape evolution waned as the background tectonic stress regime evolved and climatic influences became more prominent. Global-scale climate-forcing increased step-wise during the Plio-Pleistocene amplifying erosional and depositional processes that operated within the landscape. These processes caused differential unloading (uplift) and loading (subsidence) of the crust (‘denudational isostasy’) in areas undergoing net erosion (upland areas and slopes) and deposition (basins). Denudational isostasy amplified during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (c.0.9 Ma) as landscapes become progressively synchronised to large-scale 100 ka ‘eccentricity’ climate forcing. Over the past 0.5 Ma, this has led to the establishment of a robust climate record of individual glacial/interglacial cycles enabling comparison to other regional and global records. During the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition and early Holocene (c.16–7 ka), evidence for more abrupt (millennial/centennial) scale climatic events has been discovered. This indicates that superimposed upon the longer-term pattern of landscape evolution is a more dynamic response of the landscape to local and regional drivers.  相似文献   

4.
The Frome near Stroud is an unusual example of a Cotswold stream that flows west, against regional topographic and geological dips. As a result, a deeply incised and irregularly indented valley has been carved through a succession of Jurassic strata of varying competencies and permeabilities. The landscape has been modified by intense, locally variable periglacial erosion during Devensian times, resulting in a number of characteristic landforms including landslip, valley bulging, and limestone cambering. This study assesses the importance of spring and river discharge upon the sculpting of such a unique landscape. An extensive discharge survey of 67 hillside springs has revealed two well defined springlines that form at stratigraphical interfaces. Groundwater issues in greater abundance from the lower, Inferior Oolite, aquifer; discharge here is more regular throughout the year. Groundwater flow is a function of the regional SE strata dip, and of the heavily fissured character of the limestone, which provides rapid preferential flow pathways. Discharge of the River Frome was measured at four localities and cannot be explained by a simple model using upstream drainage area, as the channel can run completely dry over limestone in summer. The position of the springs has influenced the development of a line of settlements along the valley sides, as well as the proliferation of industry in the valley floor, with mills sited at points of high stream power. Geology affects valley shape, width, and orientation; the structure of the jointed limestone aquifer guides spring discharge and the orientation of many dry valleys.  相似文献   

5.
Central Queensland lies on the passive margin of eastern Australia and owes its landscape to processes that began following rifting and opening of the Tasman Sea. The modern landscape is the result of long-term processes of landform development, and the landforms themselves are the evidence of these processes. Hence, interpreting their significance provides an understanding of long-term landscape evolution. Along the eastern Australian coast, numerous rivers drain into the sea but among these, there are two that stand out: the neighbouring Fitzroy and Burdekin Rivers in central Queensland. These two streams have by far the largest catchments of any rivers along the eastern seaboard of Australia. The Burdekin and Fitzroy catchments contain widespread remnants of Cenozoic deposits, which accumulated predominantly in fluvial and lacustrine environments established during the Palaeogene. Alluvial sediments were supplied by erosion of nearby uplands, and accumulated in depressions and basins on a prior land surface. Volcanic activity also resulted in large lava flows in central western areas. Water was the main agent of sediment transport, distributing unconsolidated deposits along the drainage networks of the time, some of which were directed inland. It is inferred that during the Palaeogene, the divide between coastward and inland draining streams was further to the east than it is at present. Several basins were located west of the former coastal divide, and were characterised by continental environments of deposition in a generally westward drainage system. With continued accumulation of sediments, individual basins overflowed and merged to form a widespread flat-lying Palaeogene landscape that concealed an earlier land surface on which bedrock was more extensive. In the Early Cenozoic, there was a change from the depositional phase that resulted in the continental sequence, to an erosional phase that developed the modern landforms. The change from deposition to erosion probably started during the Palaeogene. Erosion continued through to the present, re-exposing parts of the basal Palaeogene sequence and earlier Mesozoic land surface. The erosional phase that shaped the landforms of the modern Burdekin and Fitzroy catchments can be explained by slowly evolving drainage basins in the interior being captured by small coastal streams—the predecessors of the Burdekin and Fitzroy Rivers. The coastal streams were short and steep in comparison with those in the interior, allowing a more active erosional environment along the coast. As the coastal streams expanded, the drainage divide moved rapidly westwards. Stream capture began a phase of regional erosion, which transported large quantities of sediments to the coast. The sediments contributed to coastal and nearshore features similar to the Holocene high sea-level examples at the mouth of the Burdekin River in the north, and the Fitzroy Delta and the Keppel Coast in the south. Large volumes of sediments were also transported beyond the present coast during low sea-levels of the Cenozoic, forming similar coastal features and contributing to a major eastward bulge on the central Queensland continental shelf. The emptying of continental basins has paralleled the development of the continental shelf bulge from the coast to the Marion Plateau.  相似文献   

6.
The recent evolution of the north German Basin (NGB), which is presently a low-seismic area, was partly affected by glacial loading and unloading of the ice masses. Major stresses acting within the NGB are induced by the North-Atlantic ridge push, the ongoing Alpine collision, and the post-glacial rebound of Fennoscandia. Present-day horizontal stresses within the NGB are directed generally NW–SE, but fan and bend north of 52°N towards NNE. Major basement faults are directed NW–SE, minor faults NE–SW and NNE–SSW, and are clearly detectable in geomorphological and satellite lineaments. Furthermore, the drainage pattern and the distribution of lakes in northern Germany follow exactly block boundaries and, hence, mark zones of present-day subsidence. The understanding of the post-glacial morphology and reactivation of faults requires a view into the very heterogeneous crust and upper mantle below the NGB. The re-adjustment of the individual fault blocks during post-glacial relaxation of the lithosphere leads to differential, crust-dependent uplift and, probably, to the formation of Urstrom valleys. The Urstrom valleys and terminal moraines in northern Germany appear to parallel the major tectonic lineaments and lithospheric “block” boundaries. The lithospheric memory is expressed in the post-glacial landscape evolution of the NGB.  相似文献   

7.
罗书文  杨桃  邓亚东  吕勇  吴克华  孟庆鑫 《地质通报》2023,42(10):1652-1665
从地文期角度,分析桂林岩溶地貌的发育演化过程,为研究岩溶地貌发育演化规律及探讨岩溶地貌保护利用和可持续发展提供科学依据。通过调查区内地层、地貌的空间展布特征,塑造地貌营力(水系)变化,结合区内构造发展史及岩相古地理环境变化等要素,对桂林地貌发育演化过程的地文时期进行解析。研究表明,①中三叠世—白垩纪晚期,由地壳升降运动引起海进海退,为研究区现代岩溶地貌发育奠定了物质基础和地势基本构架;②古新世—上新世,区内发育的内陆断陷、凹陷盆地,为现代岩溶地貌发育水动力奠定了地形条件;③渐新世末期,广西南部断块构造异常显著,区内向南流的水系溯源侵蚀能力加强,使阳朔与桂林水系贯通(漓江的形成),在水文效应下塑造了桂林现代岩溶地貌景观。因此,根据区内地质演化史、外部营力变化(水系)、地貌特征等要素,桂林岩溶地貌发育演化分为猫儿山期、山盆期和漓江期3个地文期。  相似文献   

8.
吴运鹏  杨蓉 《第四纪研究》2021,41(6):1574-1583

地貌形态是构造活动、气候变化和地表过程相互作用的结果。在构造活跃地区,控制地貌演化的因素已有大量讨论,而在构造沉寂地区,相关研究却相对缺乏。常山港是钱塘江南源,其流域盆地位于扬子地块东南缘。新生代以来区内构造运动并不活跃,岩性、地貌较为复杂,河流网络显示出非稳态特征。文章以常山港流域为研究对象,探讨构造沉寂地区控制地貌演化的因素,并使用积分方法对常山港流域进行地貌分析,提取出河道参数X以及河道标准化陡峭指数(ksn),进而从X图中提取出河道裂点与河道ksn的空间分布,将其与区域内的断裂分布进行比较。结果显示,河道裂点和河道ksn与断裂无显著关系,现今常山港流域范围内构造活动性弱,但众多河流裂点的出现说明地貌演化尚未达到稳定状态。河道ksn空间分布与岩性单元分布的对比结果显示,河道ksn与岩性差异显著相关,表明岩性是现今控制常山港流域地貌演化的主要因素。

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9.
黄龙钙华景观形成及演化趋势研究   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
黄龙景区因拥有钙华源泉、彩池、滩流、瀑布等景观而享誉世界,其钙华景观的稳定性也为世人所关注。文章通过对与钙华景观形成密切相关的地质环境,特别是水循环系统动态变化及区域钙华景观成长演化历史的研究,认为黄龙钙华景观现状稳定性较好,但正处于缓慢的、反复的衰退过程,只要采取适当的措施可以延缓其衰退。  相似文献   

10.
Kachchh possesses a fault-controlled first-order topography and several geomorphic features indicative of active tectonics. Though coseismic neotectonic activity is believed to be the major factor in the evolution of the landscape, detailed documentation and analysis of vital landscape features like drainage characteristics, bedrock gorges and terraces are lacking. The present study is a site-specific documentation of gorges developed in the central part of the mainland Kachchh. We analyzed and interpreted four gorges occurring on either side of Katrol Hill Fault (KHF). The Khari river gorge is endowed with six levels of bedrock terraces, some of which are studded with large potholes and flutings. Since no active development of potholes is observed along the rivers in the present day hyper-arid conditions, we infer an obvious linkage of gorges to the humid phases, which provided high energy runoff for the formation of gorges and distinct bedrock terraces and associated erosional features. Development of gorges within the miliolites and incision in the fluvial deposits to the south of the KHF indicates that the gorges were formed during Early Holocene. However, ubiquitous occurrence of gorges along the streams to the south of KHF, the uniformly N40‡ E trend of the gorges, their close association with transverse faults and the short length of the exceptionally well developed Khari river gorge in the low-relief rocky plain to the north of KHF suggests an important role of neotectonic movements  相似文献   

11.
丁智强  王平  李玉辉 《第四纪研究》2021,41(6):1546-1557

洼地是喀斯特地形分化的元地形,定量化阐述洼地与整体地貌之间的协同演化对于揭示喀斯特地貌空间结构差异及其差异演化的动力学机制具有重要意义。将地理信息系统的数字地形分析与戴维斯地貌循环论、面积-高程法结合,以盘龙河-泸江喀斯特流域为研究对象,探讨从古夷平面向阶梯状地形格局转变背景下喀斯特地貌的分异规律及其动力学机制。结果显示:1)从上游、中游到下游,洼地的数量分别为8145个、5636个、1883个,平均密度分别为1.96个/km2、1.23个/km2、0.61个/km2,平均深度分别为22.6 m、34.9 m、12.8 m;峰丛数量分别为9094个、7281个、5710个,平均密度分别为2.19个/km2、1.59个/km2、1.86个/km2,平均高度分别为29.3 m、47.8 m、26.1 m。2)从流域汇口到源头可划分为堆积孤丘平原、构造侵蚀花岗岩中山、斜坡峰丛谷地、溶原缓丘-断陷盆地和构造溶蚀亚高山这5个地貌区,对应的平均坡度分别为16.8°、23.5°、22.4°、12.5°、19.8°,平均起伏度分别为311 m、605 m、393 m、170 m、323 m。3)流域平均面积-高程积分值为0.352,洼地平均积分值为0.508,属溶原背景下的回春型壮年晚期地貌,5个地貌区的区域面积-高程积分值分别为0.147、0.425、0.510、0.355、0.397,洼地面积-高程积分值分别为0.116、0.302、0.598、0.481、0.278。反映高原隆升形成的梯级坡降奠定了盘龙河-泸江流域差异性喀斯特地貌发育的基础,即海拔梯度上的结构动力学和水系发育带来的流域汇流、侵蚀溶蚀顺水力坡度变化,具体过程是洼地的发育和合并。从区域积分值和洼地积分值的大小关系,结合各地貌区内的海拔、坡度、起伏度特征和野外地质地貌调查,认为当洼地面积-高程积分值大于区域面积-高程积分值时,洼地强烈新生和扩张,地貌向起伏度增大的青年期发展;反之洼地发育减弱或停滞,地貌向夷平蚀低的准平原化发展。由此可见,洼地面积-高程积分值可作为喀斯特区地貌演化动力增强或减弱的定量化指标。

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12.
This study presents a multiproxy record of Holocene environmental change in the region East of the Pechora Delta. A peat plateau profile (Ortino II) is analyzed for plant macrofossils, sediment type, loss on ignition, and radiocarbon dating. A paleosol profile (Ortino III) is described and radiocarbon dated. A previously published peat plateau profile (Ortino I) was analyzed for pollen and conifer stomata, loss on ignition, and radiocarbon dating. The interpretation of the latter site is reassessed in view of new evidence. Spruce immigrated to the study area at about 8900 14C yr B.P. Peatland development started at approximately the same time. During the Early Holocene Hypsithermal taiga forests occupied most of the present East-European tundra and peatlands were permafrost free. Cooling started after 5000 14C yr B.P., resulting in a retreat of forests and permafrost aggradation. Remaining forests disappeared from the study area around 3000 14C yr B.P., coinciding with more permafrost aggradation. The retreat of forests resulted in landscape instability and the redistribution of sand by eolian activity. The displacement of the Arctic forest line and permafrost zones indicates a warming of at least 2–3°C in mean July and annual temperatures during the Early Holocene. At least two cooling periods can be recognized for the second half of the Holocene, starting at about 4800 and 3000 14C yr B.P.  相似文献   

13.
Paul Stangl 《GeoJournal》2008,73(3):245-253
Recent geographical literature has given extensive consideration to monumental landscapes and collective memory. Vernacular landscapes have been given limited attention, though they too bear testimony to collective memory. The vernacular and monumental are intertwined in urban space, and ambiguity and fluidity mark their border, yet their distinction remains significant. The monumental sustains collective memory, linking the past, present and future. The vernacular provides spatial forms for the routines of everyday life. Yet, professionals and critics often interpret and present the vernacular as a symbol of collective memory, or a monument, rather than recognizing that collective memory in the vernacular is critical when centered on the complex relation between space and lived experience. The case study of Berlin during post-WWII reconstruction as well as the reconstruction following reunification demonstrates consistency in problems arising from treating the vernacular as the monumental.  相似文献   

14.
武陵山地区出露着层层叠叠,形似宫殿、堡垒,且与沟壑相嵌、具有较强观赏和开发利用价值的一类红色岩溶地貌景观。通过野外调查和资料分析,掌握此红色岩溶景观的分布范围,分析其发育的区域地质背景、地层岩性、地质构造及溶蚀作用等主要影响因素,以进一步解析其形成过程。结果表明:武陵山地区红色岩溶景观的形成经历了沉积成岩、抬升剥蚀、土下溶蚀成景三个主要演化阶段。  相似文献   

15.
利用DGY孔沉积物的岩性、粒度及孢粉分析资料,探讨了太湖平原碟形洼地沉积物记录的8 000年以来植被演化、气候波动,流域地貌环境的演变及其对海平面波动的响应。孢粉记录表明:本区距今8 000~5 000年木本植被由以落叶阔叶乔木和针叶乔木为主变为落叶阔叶乔木和常绿阔叶乔木为主,气候由温和略干转为暖热湿润;距今5 000~4 000年森林退缩,气候温和偏干;距今4 000年左右出现低温事件;距今4000~3000年木本植被以常绿阔叶乔木为主,气候温暖湿润;距今3 000年以来木本植被主要为常绿阔叶乔木、落叶阔叶乔木和针叶乔木,气候总体温暖湿润,有波动变凉干趋势。岩性、粒度及孢粉记录综合显示本区距今8 000~5 000年发育潟湖相泥质粉砂,反映流域环境开放、与海连通;距今5 000~4 000年发育淡水沼泽,未受海水作用,反映水域缩小、流域环境封闭;距今4 000~3 000年水域扩大,并出现海水倒灌,反映内低外高的碟形洼地已经形成;距今3 000年以来,发育湖沼平原,发生数次海水倒灌,反映碟形洼地地貌的进一步发育。  相似文献   

16.
利用DGY孔沉积物的岩性、粒度及孢粉分析资料,探讨了太湖平原碟形洼地沉积物记录的8000年以来植被演化、气候波动,流域地貌环境的演变及其对海平面波动的响应。孢粉记录表明:本区距今8000~5000年木本植被由以落叶阔叶乔木和针叶乔木为主变为落叶阔叶乔木和常绿阔叶乔木为主,气候由温和略干转为暖热湿润;距今5000~4000年森林退缩,气候温和偏干;距今4000年左右出现低温事件;距今4000~3,000年木本植被以常绿阔叶乔木为主,气候温暖湿润;距今3000年以来木本植被主要为常绿阔叶乔木、落叶阔叶乔木和针叶乔木,气候总体温暖湿润,有波动变凉干趋势。岩性、粒度及孢粉记录综合显示本区距今8000~5000年发育潟湖相泥质粉砂,反映流域环境开放、与海连通;距今5000~4000年发育淡水沼泽,未受海水作用,反映水域缩小、流域环境封闭;距今4000~3000年水域扩大,并出现海水倒灌,反映内低外高的碟形洼地已经形成;距今3000年以来,发育湖沼平原,发生数次海水倒灌,反映碟形洼地地貌的进一步发育。  相似文献   

17.

地貌过程的定量化表达已成为构造地貌学研究中的一种趋势。基于ASTER GDEM数据,运用GIS空间分析技术,本文获得了钱塘江流域87个子流域的地貌参数,包括面积-高程积分(HI)、面积-高程积分曲线(HC)、坡度、流域不对称度(AF)、流域盆地形状指数(Bs)等。进一步结合流域内地层特征与自然地理背景,探讨了钱塘江流域地貌演化阶段以及流域内主要断裂(江山-绍兴断裂、球川-萧山断裂和马金-乌镇断裂)的相对活动性。结果表明:1)HI值在小尺度范围内主要反映岩性差异,在大的空间尺度下则可能主要与构造活动性有关;2)相对于HI指数,AF和Bs更有助于揭示构造活动性的空间差异;3)基于AF、Bs、坡度、HI等的分析,认为江山-绍兴断裂和球川-萧山断裂北段的活动性要弱于南段,而马金-乌镇断裂南、北段构造活动性差异不显著;4)多种地貌计量指标的分析结果(HI=0.217、|AF-50|=4.27、Bs=0.77)均显示钱塘江流域处于地貌演化的老年阶段。

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18.
Re-evaluation of the river history, palaeosurface levels and exhumation history in northern Switzerland for the last 10 million years reveals that distinct morphotectonic events about 4.2 and 2.8 million years ago (Ma) caused major reorganisation of river networks and morphosculpture. As a result of the earlier formation of the Swiss Jura, potential relief energy in the piggy-back North Alpine Foreland Basin (NAFB) of northern central Switzerland south of the Jura fold belt was built up after 11–10 Ma. It was suddenly released by river capture at about 4.2 Ma when the Aare-Danube was captured by a tributary of the Rhône-Doubs river system which rooted southeast of the Black forest. This event triggered rapid denudation of weakly consolidated Molasse sediments, in the order of about 1 km, as constrained by apatite fission track data from drillholes in the NAFB. Likely mechanisms of river capture are (a) headward erosion of Rhône-Doubs tributaries, (b) uplift and rapidly increasing erosion of the Swiss Alps after about 5.3 Ma, and (c) gravel aggradation at the eastern termination of the Jura fold belt in the course of eastward and northward tilt of the piggy-back NAFB. A morphotectonic event between 4.2 and 2.5 Ma, probably at about 2.8 Ma, caused a phase of planation, accompanied by local gravel aggradation and temporary storage of Alpine debris. Between 2.8 and 2.5 Ma, the Aare-Rhône river system is cannibalised by the modern Rhine River, the latter later connecting with the Alpine Rhine River.  相似文献   

19.
Ages of channels of the anastomosing upper Columbia River, south‐eastern British Columbia, Canada, were investigated in a cross‐valley transect by 14C dating of subsurface floodplain organic material from beneath levees. The avulsion history within the transect was deduced from these data, and morphological stages in channel development were recognized. Additionally, floodplain sedimentation rates were established. The new data demonstrate that the upper Columbia River is a long‐lived, dynamic anastomosing system. Results show that anastomosis at the study location has persisted since at least 2700 cal. years BP, with avulsions occurring frequently. At least nine channels have formed in the studied cross‐valley transect within the past 3000 years. Channel lifetimes from formation to abandonment appear to be highly variable, ranging from approximately 800 to 3000 years. Log jams provoking avulsions and/or silting up of old channels are proposed as reasons for this variability. Long‐term average floodplain sedimentation rates appear to be significantly lower than previously proposed by Smith (1983, Int. Assoc. Sedimentol. Spec. Publ., 6, 155–168). A long‐term (4550 years) average of 1·75 mm year?1 (after compaction) was based on 14C dates, while a short‐term sedimentation rate of 0·8 mm was determined for a single, relatively small, seasonal flood in 1994 using sediment traps. However, short‐term sedimentation rates vary considerably over the floodplain, with levees aggrading up to four times faster than floodbasins. Channels of the upper Columbia River anastomosed reach follow a consistent pattern in their development, with each stage being characterized by different morphology and processes. Channel evolution comprises the following succession: (1) avulsion stage, in which a crevasse splay channel deepens by scour and levee sedimentation; (2) widening and deepening stage, in which bank slumping and bed scouring dominates; (3) infilling stage, in which either channel narrowing (bank accretion) or channel shallowing (bed accretion) takes place; and (4) abandonment stage, in which the residual (remnant) channel is filled exclusively by silt, clay and organic material. Vertical stacking (super‐ imposition) of active channels on recent channel‐fill sand bodies is a notable feature of the upper Columbia River, which suggests that reoccupation of residual channels is a common process.  相似文献   

20.

基于三维热-动力学数值模拟(Pecube),本研究分别采用稳定地形、高原-稳定地形以及高原-动态地形3种模型重建了青藏高原东南缘临沧花岗岩地区晚始新世以及中中新世时期的地貌演化过程。反演结果揭示了在新生代早期(晚始新世),只有高原-稳定地形模拟的结果能够约束研究区冷却-剥露过程,并论证了该时期发生强烈构造抬升的事件,正是因为此次抬升事件,使得高原东南缘地区古高度接近或达到现今状态;中中新世时期,澜沧江侵蚀下切约1 km,对原有的高原地貌进行了进一步改造,从而形成现今的地貌格局。该模型结果验证了青藏高原东南部的构造隆升主要发生在新生代早期,这与侧向挤出模型的预测相一致。

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