顾及地标与道路分支的行人导航路径选择算法

提出顾及地标与道路分支的行人导航路径选择算法。该算法能够利用地标降低导航路径的复杂程度,帮助视觉正常的行人确认当前位置以及是否偏离了当前路径。实验表明,本算法能够较好地平衡导航路径的三种优化目标:行程距离、路径复杂度以及路径地标数量。与最短路径算法相比,该算法选择的路径具有较低的复杂度与较高的路径地标密度。     

绝对空间定位到相对空间感知的行人导航研究趋势

相对空间比绝对空间更易于被人理解。行人导航本质是以相对于人的导航环境视觉与空间等相对语义来动态引导行人的过程,即相对导航。目前,GIS导航理论以绝对定位与空间建模为基础,没有充分理解人对相对语义的认知差异,缺乏基于相对语义的导航理论模型。首先,总结了以绝对空间定位与表达为基础的行人导航研究,提出了相对空间感知的行人导航研究新方向。然后,剖析了相对导航研究的理论研究需求,如:行人相对导航数据采集与建模、行人导航环境相对语义的提取、行人导航行为的自动感知分析、行人导航的多感官交互机制、行人导航路径选择与确认机制等。最后,展望了未来行人导航研究与重要创新的3个阶段。     

Development of a GIS-based decision support system for assessing land use status

The objectives of this study are to assess land suitability and to predict the spatial and temporal changes in land use types (LUTs) by using GIS-based land use management decision support system. A GIS database with data on climate, topography, soil characteristic, irrigation condition, fertilizer application, and special socioeconomic activities has been developed and used for the evaluation of land productivity for different crops by integrating with a crop growth model—the erosion productivity impact calculator (EPIC). International food policy simulation model (IFPSIM) is also embedded into GIS for the predictions of how crop demands and crop market prices will change under alternative policy scenarios. An inference engine (IE) including land use choice model is developed to illustrate land use choice behavior based on logit models, which allows to analyze how diversified factors ranging from climate changes, crop price changes to land management changes can effect the distribution of agricultural land use. A test for integrated simulation is taken in each 0.1o by 0.1o grid cell to predict the change of agricultural land use types at global level. Global land use changes are simulated from 1992 to 2050.     

Development of a GIS-based decision support system for assessing land use status

IntroductionAgriculturallandusepatternsandtheirchangesaretightlyrelatedwithagriculturepolicyandfoodsecurityissuesundergrowingfooddemand,assess mentofglobalclimatechangeimpactsonagricul ture,environmentalissuesduetotheintensificationofagriculturallandusessuchaswaterpollution,soildegradation,andrecentlywaterscarcityissues.Soasustainableandholisticplanningandmanage mentoflandresourcesshouldcombineallthesere latedinformationwithefficienttoolsforassessmentandevaluationinordertopermitbroad ,interact…     

Spatial shopping behavior during the Corona pandemic: insights from a micro-econometric store choice model for consumer electronics and furniture retailing in Germany

During the COVID-19 pandemic, e-commerce’s market share has increased dramatically, a phenomenon attributable to not only lockdowns but to voluntary changes in shopping behavior as well. The current study examines the main determinants driving shopping behavior in the context of both physical and online store availability, and investigates whether specific drivers have changed during the pandemic. The study aims to test whether fear of infection and mandatory wearing of face masks in shops have influenced consumer channel choice. The empirical analysis focuses on two product types (consumer electronics, furniture), with empirical data collected via a representative consumer survey in three German regions. The statistical analysis was performed using a hurdle model approach and the findings are compared to those of a study related to pre-pandemic shopping. The results show that the determinants of shopping behavior have largely not changed. Channel choice can be explained by shopping attitudes, age, and partially, by place of residence of consumers. Store choice is determined primarily by shopping transaction costs and store features. Fear of infection and the mandatory wearing of face masks exhibit minimal influence on channel choice, if any. The importance of cross-channel integration of stores/chains has decreased significantly, while average travel times for in-store purchases have declined.

     

Simulating Complex Adaptive Geographic Systems: A Geographically Aware Intelligent Agent Approach

The objective of this paper is to present a spatially explicit agent-based simulation framework with a supporting software package to explore complex adaptive geographic systems. This framework is particularly suitable for modeling entities that are contextually aware, knowledge driven, and adaptive because it represents them as geographically aware intelligent agents. Fundamental advances in the explicit representation of contextual information, knowledge structures, and learning processes are needed for modeling intelligent agents situated within geographic systems. The representation of these agents requires the integration of agent-based models, machine learning, and GIS. Existing software packages for agent-based modeling, however, often provide insufficient support for this integration. The agent-based simulation package presented here is specifically designed to achieve such integration by assisting the development of agent-based models from the simulation framework. Object-oriented modeling techniques were used to implement this simulation package, which includes four modules: simulation, visualization, learning, and geoprocessing. In particular, the learning and geoprocessing modules facilitate the representation of adaptive behavior in agents within spatially explicit environments. The utility of the agent-based simulation package is illustrated using two simulation models: one of adaptive elk behavior and another of pedestrian movement. The successful design of the simulation models suggests that the modeling framework with the supporting software package is well suited to the resolution of complex adaptive geographic problems.     

A Framework and Software Tool to Support Collaborative Landscape Analysis: Fitting Square Pegs into Square Holes

For landscape models to be applied successfully in management situations, models must address appropriate questions, include relevant processes and interactions, be perceived as credible and involve people affected by decisions. We propose a framework for collaborative model building that can address these issues, and has its roots in adaptive management, computer‐supported collaborative work and landscape ecology. Models built through this framework integrate a variety of information sources, address relevant questions, and are customized for the particular landscape and policy environment under study. Participants are involved in the process from the start, and because their input is incorporated, they feel ownership of the resulting models, increasing the chance of model acceptance and application. There are two requirements for success: a tool that supports rapid model prototyping and modification, that makes a clear link between a conceptual and implemented model, and that has the ability to implement a wide range of model types; and a core team with skills in communication, research and analysis, and knowledge of ecology and forestry in addition to modelling. SELES (Spatially Explicit Landscape Event Simulator) is a tool for building and running models of landscape dynamics. It combines discrete event simulation with a spatial database and a relatively simple modelling language to allow rapid development of landscape simulations, and provides a high‐level means of specifying complex model behaviours ranging from management actions to natural disturbance and succession. We have applied our framework in several forest modelling projects in British Columbia, Canada. We have found that this framework increases the interest by local experts and decision‐makers to participate actively in the model building process. The workshop process and resulting models have efficiently provided insight into the dynamics of large landscapes over long time frames. The use of SELES has facilitated this process by providing a flexible, transparent environment in which models can be rapidly implemented and refined. As a result, model findings may be more readily incorporated into decision‐support systems designed to assist resource managers in making informed decisions.     

基于多项Logit模型的土地覆被分层分类方法研究

探讨了一种利用多项Logit模型分层提取土地覆盖专题信息的方法。考虑客观存在的异物同谱现象,构建分层分类体系,针对不同层的地物类别选取不同的预测变量构建多项Logit模型,分步骤地提取各地物类专题信息。将此方法应用于美国蒙大拿州中部地区的土地覆盖专题信息提取,结果表明,该方法较常规的使用同一组特征变量构建单一模型一次性地划分所有地物类的方法在总体分类精度上有了明显改善。     

Exploring differences of visual attention in pedestrian navigation when using 2D maps and 3D geo-browsers

ABSTRACT

Despite the now-ubiquitous two-dimensional (2D) electronic maps, three-dimensional (3D) globe viewers, or 3D geo-browsers such as Google Earth and NASA World Wind have gained much attention. However, the effect of such interactive 3D geo-browsers on spatial knowledge acquisition and decision-making is not well known. This study aims to explore the potential benefits of using interactive 3D geo-browsers in three processes of pedestrian navigation (self-localization, spatial knowledge acquisition, and decision-making) in digital environments. We employed eye tracking to show differences of visual attention in pedestrian navigation between a 2D map (Google Map) and a 3D geo-browser (Google Earth). The results indicated that benefits and drawbacks of 3D representations are task dependent. Participants using the 3D geo-browser had an extensively visual search resulting in significantly longer response time than the 2D participants for spatial knowledge acquisition, whereas 3D users performed a more efficient visual search and resulted in a better navigation performance at complex decision points. We speculate that the inefficient knowledge acquisition when using the 3D geo-browser was most probably due to information overload and obstructed views. Landmarks in photorealistic 3D models assisted recall of spatial knowledge from mental maps, which contributed to efficient decision-making at a complex turning point. These empirical results can be helpful to improve the usability of pedestrian navigation systems.     

Latent lifestyle preferences and household location decisions

Lifestyle, indicating preferences towards a particular way of living, is a key driver of the decision of where to live. We employ latent class choice models to represent this behavior, where the latent classes are the lifestyles and the choice model is the choice of residential location. Thus, we simultaneously estimate lifestyle groups and how lifestyle impacts location decisions. Empirical results indicate three latent lifestyle segments: suburban dwellers, urban dwellers, and transit-riders. The suggested lifestyle segments have intriguing policy implications. Lifecycle characteristics are used to predict lifestyle preferences, although there remain significant aspects that cannot be explained by observable variables.

Fine-scale simulation of spatial population distribution by coupling GA–ABM and big data: A case study of Dongguan,China

Capturing spatial population distribution can offer useful information for urban planning to promote reasonable population distribution and allocate urban resource. Agent-based model (ABM) based on the modeling idea of “bottom-up” can offer the ability to simulate the complex individual behaviors that generate spatial population distribution. Previous ABMs were unable to be extended for simulation of spatial population distribution at a fine scale due to the shortage of fine characterization of the urban environment and the calibration of agents' behavior. This study filled these gaps by proposing a genetic algorithm-ABM (GA–ABM) for fine-scale simulation of spatial population distribution in a manufacturing metropolis. In this model, the employment and residential choice behaviors of agents were defined by the labor economic theory and discrete selection model. Multisource geospatial big data such as enterprise points-of-interest big data and building footprints data were used to finely characterize the labor market and urban environment to reflect the impact of agents' employment choices on their residential decision. Furthermore, the grid-scale population investigation big data were combined with the GA to calibrate the agents' residential decision behaviors. The proposed model was used in Dongguan, the typical manufacturing metropolis in China. As a comparison, the expert-experience-based method-ABM (EEBM–ABM) was also conducted by using the same data set. Through the comparison of the results produced by these two models, it was demonstrated that the model coefficient calibrated by GA could effectively reflect the agents' residential decisions. The calibrated GA–ABM is more capable than EEBM–ABM in simulating spatial population distribution in a manufacturing metropolis. Hence, the proposed model can be used to simulate spatial population distribution in a manufacturing metropolis which helps the urban planner to conduct scientific urban planning.     

土地利用变化模拟模型及应用研究进展

元胞自动机CA(Cellular Automata)和多智能体ABM(Agent-Based Model)模型是土地利用格局和演化模拟的主流方法,两者在模拟自然因素影响和人文驱动机制方面具有突出优势,为LUCC研究提供了重要的工具。当前,ABM无论在模型构建还是应用研究方面,CA和ABM均取得了显著进展。论文从数据基础、模拟尺度、CA转换规则挖掘、ABM行为规则定义、CA和ABM的耦合4个方面梳理土地利用模拟模型和方法的研究进展。并总结这些模型在虚拟城市模拟与理论验证、真实城市模拟与规划预测以及多类用地模拟与辅助决策等方面的应用。最后,总结土地利用模拟模型在精细模拟和全球变化研究方面存在的局限性,认为未来发展将主要集中于解决从2维模型向3维模型发展、大数据与规则精细挖掘以及大尺度模拟与知识迁移等问题。     

基于时空棱镜和活动场所吸引率的目的地选择研究

提出了一个在GIS环境下利用时空棱镜确定可达的活动场所位置组,再由活动场所内外条件特性及其位置特点提供的吸引率决定最终活动目的地的选择。讨论了在GIS环境下时空棱镜的操作定义,通过分析影响人们选择目的地的几项因素,提供了计算活动场所吸引率的数学公式。并在MAPGIS软件平台上予以实施,通过宁波一小城区中的生活购物行为例子,进行了检验。     

An integrated environment for developing knowledge-based spatial decision support systems

Knowledge-based spatial decision support systems (KBSDSS) incorporate heuristic reasoning, and analytical and spatial modelling capabilities to support decision making in resource and environmental management. They are able to provide the assistance for both the structuring and formulation of the spatial problem, and the design and execution of a solution process by automatically integrating different types of models and data. This paper presents a KBSDSS development environment, which connects a GIS tool (ARC/INFO) with an expert system tool (CLIPS) and a hypertext diagramming tool (HARDY). ARC/INFO provides capabilities for spatial data handling. CLIPS is used to develop knowledge bases and heuristic reasoning. HARDY is used to represent spatial problems in terms of diagrams that can then be translated into a CLIPS knowledge base for evaluation. The development environment allows users to structure their problems and develop models for particular requirements and domains.     

Evaluating the Usability of a Tool for Visualizing the Uncertainty of the Future Global Water Balance

We describe the development of software that is intended to enable decision makers (and their scientific advisors) to visualize uncertainties associated with the future global water balance. This is an important task because the future water balance is a function of numerous factors that are not precisely known, including the historical climatology, the model of potential evapotranspiration, the soil water holding capacity, and the global circulation models (GCMs) used to predict the effect of increased CO₂ in the atmosphere. In developing the software, we utilized the principles of usability engineering. In our case, we utilized six steps: prototype development, evaluation by domain experts, software revision, evaluation by usability experts, software revision, and evaluation by decision makers. Although this approach led to an improved piece of software, decision makers should have been involved earlier in the software design process, possibly at step two (instead of the domain experts). Decision makers found the notion of uncertainty discomforting, but their positive comments regarding the software suggest that it could prove beneficial, especially with improvements in spatial and temporal resolution. One interesting characteristic of our approach was the utilization of a wall-size display measuring 25 x 6 feet. The wall-size display engendered great interest, but determining whether it is truly effective will require a study that directly compares it with more traditional approaches.     

Spatial Prediction of Landslide Hazard Using Logistic Regression and ROC Analysis

An empirical modeling of road related and non‐road related landslide hazard for a large geographical area using logistic regression in tandem with signal detection theory is presented. This modeling was developed using geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing data, and was implemented on the Clearwater National Forest in central Idaho. The approach is based on explicit and quantitative environmental correlations between observed landslide occurrences, climate, parent material, and environmental attributes while the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves are used as a measure of performance of a predictive rule. The modeling results suggest that development of two independent models for road related and non‐road related landslide hazard was necessary because spatial prediction and predictor variables were different for these models. The probabilistic models of landslide potential may be used as a decision support tool in forest planning involving the maintenance, obliteration or development of new forest roads in steep mountainous terrain.     

Testing for similarity in area‐based spatial patterns: Alternative methods to Andresen's spatial point pattern test

Andresen's spatial point pattern test (SPPT) compares two spatial point patterns on defined areal units; it identifies areas where the spatial point patterns diverge and aggregates these local (dis)similarities to one global measure. We discuss the limitations of the SPPT and provide two alternative methods to calculate differences in the point patterns. In the first approach we use differences in proportions tests corrected for multiple comparisons. We show how the size of differences matters, as with large point patterns many areas will be identified by SPPT as statistically different, even if those differences are substantively trivial. The second approach uses multinomial logistic regression, which can be extended to identify differences in proportions over continuous time. We demonstrate these methods by identifying areas where pedestrian stops by the New York City Police Department are different from violent crimes for 2006–2016.     

城市典型要素遥感智能监测与模拟推演关键技术EI北大核心CSCD

城市典型要素遥感智能监测与模拟推演的理论、方法与应用,对于国土空间规划与管理,城市规划与综合治理,区域决策与管理等均具有关键支撑作用。针对覆盖要素和驱动要素复杂非线性,本文研发了协同多源遥感数据的智能识别方法,实现了精细化高可信覆盖要素分类;协同遥感、POI兴趣点和时空大数据等多源数据,有效探测和识别了要素变动的驱动力。在此基础上,开展了空间演变机理挖掘、空间统计建模、启发式智能建模,并应用于土地利用、城市扩张、生态演变、碳储量等。同时,研发了聚焦城市生长推演的UrbanCA平台以及聚焦多类土地利用变化推演的Futureland平台,集成了自主研发的模拟推演系列方法并以长三角为主要区域进行了验证。     

Modeling the spread of spatio-temporal phenomena through the incorporation of ANFIS and genetically controlled cellular automata: a case study on forest fire

Abstract

Virtual representation and simulation of spatio-temporal phenomena is a promising goal for the production of an advanced digital earth. Spread modeling, which is one of the most helpful analyses in the geographic information system (GIS), plays a prominent role in meeting this objective. This study proposes a new model that considers both aspects of static and dynamic behaviors of spreadable spatio-temporal in cellular automata (CA) modeling. Therefore, artificial intelligence tools such as adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and genetic algorithm (GA) were used in accordance with the objectives of knowledge discovery and optimization. Significant conditions in updating states are considered so traditional CA transition rules can be accompanied with the impact of fuzzy discovered knowledge and the solution of spread optimization. We focused on the estimation of forest fire growth as an important case study for decision makers. A two-dimensional cellular representation of the combustion of heterogeneous fuel types and density on non-flat terrain were successfully linked with dynamic wind and slope impact. The validation of the simulation on experimental data indicated a relatively realistic head-fire shape. Further investigations showed that the results obtained using the dynamic controlling with GA in the absence of static modeling with ANFIS were unacceptable.     

Modeling Alternative Sequences of Events in Dynamic Geographic Domains

A model that emphasizes possible alternative sequences of events that occur over time is presented in this article. Representing alternative or branching events captures additional semantics unrealized by linear or non‐branching approaches. Two basic elements of branching, divergence and convergence are discussed. From these elements, many complex branching models can be built capturing a perspective of events that will take place in the future or have occurred in the past. This produces likely sequences of events that a user may compare and analyze using spatial or temporal criteria. The branching events model is especially useful for spatiotemporal decision support systems, as decision‐makers are able to identify alternative locations and times of events and, depending on the context, also identify regions of multiple possible events. A branching events viewer application is presented illustrating a case study based on a tornado response.