Policy making for renewable energy in India: lessons from wind and solar power sectors

It is clear that developing countries will have to be part of the global mitigation effort to avoid ‘dangerous climate change’, and, indeed, many of them are already undertaking significant actions on multiple fronts to help address this problem, even if they have not yet taken on legally binding commitment under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Since the deployment of GHG-mitigating technologies is already a significant part of this effort and likely to be even more so in the future, drawing lessons from existing programmes can help accelerate and enhance the effectiveness of this deployment process. Accordingly, this article aims to examine the deployment of wind and solar power in India, paying specific attention to the role of public policy in incentivizing and facilitating this deployment, how these policies have evolved over time, what has shaped this evolution, and what the learning has been over this period. Through this analysis, the intention is to draw out key lessons from India's experience with deployment policies and programmes in these two sectors and highlight the issues that will need to be given particular consideration in the design of future domestic policies and international cooperation programmes to enhance the move towards climate-compatible development in India. Many of these lessons should also be relevant for other developing countries that are attempting to balance their climate and developmental priorities through the deployment of renewable energy technologies.     

Modelling long-term HFC emissions from India's residential air-conditioning sector: exploring implications of alternative refrigerants,best practices,and a sustainable lifestyle within an integrated assessment modelling framework

India's growing role in the global climate debate makes it imperative to analyse emission reduction policies and strategies across a range of GHGs, especially for under-researched non-CO₂ gases. Hydrofluorocarbons' (HFCs) usage in cooling equipment and subsequent emissions are expected to increase dramatically in India with the phase-out of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) as coolants in air-conditioning equipment. We focus on the residential air-conditioning sector in India and analyse a suite of HFC and alternative coolant gas scenarios for understanding the implications for GHG emissions from this sector within an integrated assessment modelling framework. We find that, if unabated, HFC410A emissions will contribute to 36% of the total global warming impact from the residential air-conditioner sector in India in 2050, irrespective of the future economic growth trajectory, and the remaining 64% is from energy to power residential air-conditioners. A move towards more efficient, low global warming potential (GWP) alternative refrigerants will significantly reduce the cumulative global warming footprint of this sector by 37% during the period 2010–2050, due to gains both from energy efficiency as well as low GWP alternatives. Best practices for reducing direct emissions are important, but only of limited utility, and if a sustainable lifestyle is adopted by consumers with lower floorspace, low GWP refrigerants, and higher building envelope efficiencies, cumulative emissions during 2010–2050 can be reduced by 46% compared to the Reference scenario.

Policy relevance

Our analysis has important implications for Indian climate policy. We highlight that the Indian government's amendment proposal to the Montreal Protocol is a strong signal to the Indian market that the transition away from high GWP refrigerants towards low/zero GWP alternatives will happen sooner or later. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency should extend building energy conservation code policy to residential buildings immediately, and the government should mandate it. Government authorities should set guidelines and mandate reporting of data related to air-conditioner coolant recharge frequency and recovery of scrapped air-conditioner units. For contentious issues like flammability where there is no consensus within the industry, the government needs to undertake an independent technical assessment that can provide unbiased and reliable information to the market.     

气候变化、植被改变及人类用水与黄河流域水循环的研究进展

受气候增暖和人类活动的双重影响,黄河流域的水循环正在发生显著变化,水资源供需矛盾突出。陆地水循环是一个复杂的非线性系统,为清晰认识水循环变化的全貌,并合理高效利用有限的水资源量,需要综合考虑水循环各个要素之间的协同变化机制。同时,在“人类世”背景下,黄河流域水循环研究必须考虑人类活动的影响,主要包括植被变化和人类用水,其中人类用水主体为农业灌溉。自从实施生态恢复工程以来,黄土高原植被覆盖明显改善的同时也引发了对径流、蒸散发、降水、土壤湿度以及地下水的一系列影响,且研究结论还存在一些争议,但黄土高原植被覆盖改善使得该地区蒸散发量增加基本达成共识,大多数研究支持植被改善减少径流的结论。黄河流域的农业灌溉方式主要为大水漫灌,其对地表蒸散发、地表水及地下水多个过程具有重要影响。本文主要针对黄河流域的水循环研究,讨论相关研究进展以及发展方向。     

从气候变化的新视角理解灾害风险、暴露度、脆弱性和恢复力

不断变化的气候可导致前所未有的极端天气和气候事件。这些事件能否构成灾害,在很大程度上取决于脆弱性和暴露度水平。虽然无法完全消除各种灾害风险,但灾害风险管理和气候变化适应的重点是减少脆弱性和暴露度,并提高对各种潜在极端事件不利影响的恢复力,从而促进社会和经济的可持续发展。全面的灾害风险管理要求更加合理地分配对减灾、灾害管理等方面所付出的努力。过去的主流是强调灾害管理,但目前减灾成为关注焦点和挑战。这种主动积极的灾害风险管理与适应有助于避免未来的风险和灾害,而不仅仅是减少已有的风险和灾害,同时这也是灾害风险管理和气候变化适应更加紧密联系的一个背景。灾害风险管理促进气候变化适应从应对当前的影响中汲取经验,而气候变化适应帮助灾害风险管理更加有效地应对未来变化的条件。     

Beyond scarcity: Rethinking water,climate change and conflict in the Sudans

This article develops a new framework for understanding environment-conflict relations, on both theoretical grounds and through a qualitative historical analysis of the links between water and conflict in the states of Sudan and South Sudan. Theoretically, the article critiques the dominant emphases on ‘scarcity’, ‘state failure’ and ‘under-development’ within discussions of environmental security, and proposes an alternative model of environment-conflict relations centring on resource abundance and globally-embedded processes of state-building and development. Empirically, it examines three claimed (or possible) linkages between water and conflict in the Sudans: over trans-boundary waters of the Nile; over the links between internal resource scarcities and civil conflict; and over the internal conflict impacts of water abundance and development. We find that there exists only limited evidence in support of the first two of these linkages, but plentiful evidence that water abundance, and state-directed processes of economic development and internal colonisation relating to water, have had violent consequences. We conclude that analysts and policymakers should pay more attention to the impacts of resource abundance, militarised state power and global political economic forces in their assessments of the potential conflict impacts of environmental and especially climate change.     

极端天气气候事件变化对荒漠化、土地退化和粮食安全的影响

土地是人类赖以生存的重要资源,在受气候变化影响的同时其状况变化也在气候系统中起着关键作用。IPCC最新发布的气候变化与土地特别报告（SRCCL）系统反映了关于荒漠化、土地退化、可持续土地管理、粮食安全和陆地生态系统碳通量方面的最新科学认知,并探讨了如何进行更加可持续性的土地利用和管理以应对与土地相关的气候变化问题。文中从极端事件变化及其影响的角度,结合SRCCL与其他相关文献,予以分析和总结。结果表明,在全球变暖的背景下,极端天气气候事件的变化已经并将继续影响荒漠化和土地退化进程并对粮食安全造成冲击;而土地对气候系统的反馈作用,又会加剧气候变化并提高极端事件发生的概率和严重程度。面对气候变化尤其是极端事件给土地带来的巨大压力,必须坚持可持续的土地管理,通过减少包括土地和粮食系统在内的所有行业的排放,才有可能实现到21世纪末将全球平均升温控制在相对工业化前水平2℃以内的目标,以减轻气候变化对土地和粮食系统的负面影响。     

Engaging communities in climate adaptation: the potential of social networks

There has been a growing recognition regarding the use of social networks to engage communities in government actions. However, despite increasing awareness of social networks, there is very limited evidence for their application in relation to climate policy. This study fills this gap by assessing the potential of social networks for engaging local communities in climate adaptation policy, drawing on a case study of the Shoalhaven region in Australia. Participants from key representative groups were recruited using a purposive snowball sampling technique (N?=?24). By mapping knowledge acquisition and diffusion networks in relation to climate adaption at the local scale, this study identified key nodes within the networks. Findings demonstrate that although climate adaptation information was acquired from a diverse range of sources, the sharing knowledge networks were far more dispersed. Furthermore, although 165 knowledge sources were identified, three nodes had coverage cross the entire network, and as such acted as boundary spanners within the sharing network. This research demonstrates the utility of social network analysis to reveal the underlying knowledge networks and structures that influence community engagement pathways and in doing so outlines key implications in relation to engaging local communities in climate policy and action.

Policy relevance

The rapid development of adaptation as a mainstream strategy for managing the risks of climate change has resulted in the emergence of a broad range of adaptation policies and management strategies globally. However, the success of these initiatives is largely dependent on their acceptance and uptake by local communities, which to date remains a significant challenge. Accordingly, policy makers require novel approaches to overcome barriers to community engagement so as to enhance the likely success of community engagement pathways. This article demonstrates the value of using social network analysis to reveal the underlying knowledge network structures. This approach makes it possible to identify key individuals within a community who can disseminate adaptation information quickly across broad geographic ranges. By utilizing this approach, policy makers globally will be able to increase the extent to which adaption initiatives are accepted and adhered to by local communities, thus increasing their success.     

Climate adaptation and development: Contradictions for human security in Gambella,Ethiopia

It is clear that we need a climate adaptation policy agenda that is sensitive to the special political, social, and ecological circumstances of highly vulnerable regions, most of which are located in the African Sahel. While the existing literature on climate variability and climate change makes important theoretical contributions on development, vulnerability, and adaptation more broadly, with few exceptions it has not acknowledged that contradictions arise in addressing insecurities via the implementation of development, vulnerability reduction, and adaptation programs. An empirical assessment of how such contradictions are both driven by and negotiated in such programs is particularly useful if we are to design a more robust and grounded adaptation agenda. In this article, we focus on the paradigmatic case of Gambella in Ethiopia, a region that lies near the bottom of many development indices, but has also been the site for recent efforts to reduce climate vulnerability through village and agricultural modernization programs. Drawing on recent research in the region and on these programs, we demonstrate how the politics of development and adaptation lead to differential and contradictory impacts on four arenas of human security (a) elements of water security, (b) temporal aspects of water security and livelihoods security, (c) personal, state and community security, and (d) differentiated geographies economic security which privilege the national and international scale. The result of this complex political economy is that responses have served to increase rather than decrease tensions in the region.     

Decision making under uncertainty in climate change mitigation: introducing multiple actor motivations,agency and influence

Climate change mitigation has two main characteristics that interact to make it an extremely demanding challenge of governance: the complexity of the socio-technical systems that must be transformed to avoid climate change and the presence of profound uncertainties. A number of tools and approaches exist, which aim to help manage these challenges and support long-term decision making. However, most tools and approaches assume that there is one decision maker with clearly defined objectives. The interaction between decision makers with differing perspectives and agency is an additional uncertainty that is rarely addressed, despite the wide recognition that action is required at multiple scales and by multiple actors. This article draws inspiration from dynamic adaptive policy pathways to build on current decision support methods, extending analysis to include the perspectives and agency of multiple actors through a case study of the UK construction sector. The findings demonstrate the importance of considering alignment between perspectives, agency and potential actions when developing plans; the need for mobilizing and advocacy actions to build momentum for radical change; and the crucial influence of interaction between actors. The decision support approach presented could improve decision making by reflecting the diversity and interaction of actors; identifying short-term actions that connect to long-term goals and keeping future options open.

Key policy insights

• Multiple actors, with differing motivations, agency and influence, must engage with climate change mitigation, but may not do so, if proposed actions do not align with their motivations or if they do not have agency to undertake specific actions.

• Current roadmaps, which assume there is one decision maker with control over a whole system, might overstate how effective proposed actions could be.

• Decision making under deep uncertainty needs to account for the motivations and agency of diverse decision makers and the interaction between these decision makers.

• This could increase the implementation and effectiveness of mitigation activities.

     

Power interplay between actors: using material and ideational resources to shape local adaptation plans of action (LAPAs) in Nepal

Deliberation over how to adapt to short or long-term impacts of climate change takes place in a complex political setting, where actors’ interests and priorities shape the temporal dimension of adaptation plans, policies and actions. As actors interact to pursue their individual or collective interests, these struggles turn into dynamic power interplay. In this article, we aim to show how power interplay shapes local adaptation plans of action (LAPAs) in Nepal to be short-term and reactive. We use an interactional framing approach through interaction analyses and observations to analyse how actors use material and ideational resources to pursue their interests. Material and ideational resources that an actor deploys include political authority, knowledge of adaptation science and national/local policy-making processes, financial resources and strong relations with international non-governmental organizations and donor agencies. We find that facilitators and local politicians have a very prominent role in meetings relating to LAPAs, resulting in short-termism of LAPAs. Findings suggest that there is also a lack of female participation contributing to short-term orientated plans. We conclude that such power interplay analysis can help to investigate how decision making on the temporal aspects of climate adaptation policy takes place at the local level.

Key policy insights

• Short-termism of LAPAs is attributed to the power interplay between actors during the policy design process.

• Improved participation of the most vulnerable, especially women, can lead to the preparation of adaptation plans and strategies focusing on both the short and long-term.

• It is pertinent to consider power interplay in the design and planning of adaptation policy in order to create a level-playing field between actors for inclusive decision-making.

• Analysis of dynamic power interplay can help in investigating climate change adaptation controversies that are marked by uncertainties and ambiguities.

     

Coping with food crises: Lessons from the American Dust Bowl on balancing local food,agro technology,social welfare,and government regulation agendas in food and farming systems

This paper examines four broad policy and public responses to the American Dust Bowl in the 1930s as a way of exploring how society today could address our own “food crisis”. More particularly, in the Dust Bowl some argued that solutions would be found by engineers and farmers who would develop new ways of watering dry fields. A second group believed that inappropriate political and economic incentives had led to bad farming practices prior to the drought and this contributed to wide-spread erosion. To this group, the best solutions included governmental regulation of farm practices. A third group focused on the welfare of individuals, arguing that creating a social safety net to protect marginalized families was the highest priority. Finally, there were commentators who advocated for a smaller scale, ecological, and holistic approach to farming. Today, the same four perspectives are present in debates about how to maintain global food security in light of population growth, high energy prices and climate change. Exploring the similarity of the discourses between today's food crisis and the one that hit American society 80 years ago reveals that advocates of the four different camps are motivated by very different principles. Briefly, proponents of technological solutions base many of their arguments on the assumption that human ingenuity is capable of producing extremely productive food systems. The managerial arguments, by contrast, are based on the idea that the natural environment can be rationally and efficiently managed using scientific principles. The social welfare narrative seeks to create a more equitable food system. Finally, the ecological and holistic narrative argues that diverse, small scale and local food systems are a prerequisite for long term sustainability. The primary contribution of this paper, therefore, is to expose these deeply held ontological tensions as a way of arguing that policy makers today must de-politicise arguments and use the principles embedded in all four narratives when designing programmes to ensure that the 21st century does not face a repeat of the crisis of the 1930s.     

气候变化对中国水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架

通过论述气候变化对中国水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架,提出一个气候变化影响决策评估工具,它包括：未来气候变化对中国水资源潜在影响的定性描述分析、半定量与定量分析以及适应性对策评估。由于不同气候区域所面临的水资源问题不同,选择中国4个典型案例区域,并确定不同的目标进行气候变化适应性管理综合研究,提出了甄别气候变化影响和适应性管理的新的思路、框架与方法论。该项研究为应对未来气候变化影响的水资源规划与风险管理提供了途径与方法。     

气候变化对中国水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架

 通过论述气候变化对中国水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架,提出一个气候变化影响决策评估工具,它包括：未来气候变化对中国水资源潜在影响的定性描述分析、半定量与定量分析以及适应性对策评估。由于不同气候区域所面临的水资源问题不同,选择中国4个典型案例区域,并确定不同的目标进行气候变化适应性管理综合研究,提出了甄别气候变化影响和适应性管理的新的思路、框架与方法论。该项研究为应对未来气候变化影响的水资源规划与风险管理提供了途径与方法。     

Assessing the institutional capacity to adapt to climate change: a case study in the Cambodian health and water sectors

Institutional capacity is an important element for climate change adaptation (CCA) and the development of such capacity is a great challenge in a Least Developed Country like Cambodia where resources are limited. An important first step to increasing capacity is via an understanding of the level of existing capacity; future priorities can then be subsequently identified. This study aimed to assess the capacity of organizations to implement climate change activities in Cambodia in order to provide such a basis for building capacity. Four elements of capacity were investigated in this research: (1) financial resources, (2) cooperation and coordination of stakeholders, (3) availability and quality of information on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, and (4) the level of understanding of climate change vulnerability and adaptation. The data were collected through semistructured interviews with a wide range of government and non-government informants across a number of sectors. Results of the study showed that informants perceived capacity for CCA to be very constrained, especially in terms of financial resources and cooperation, and addressing these factors was ranked as the highest climate change capacity priority. Institutional capacity constraints were considered to relate more generally to weak governance of CCA. In light of our research findings, the absence of local higher education institutions in CCA activities should be addressed. The support of such institutions would provide an important mechanism to progress both capacity development as well as partnerships and coordination between different types of organizations and relevant sectors.

Policy relevance

Capacity for CCA within Cambodian health and water sectors was perceived to be very constrained across a range of interdependent factors. Increasing funding was ranked as the highest priority for building capacity for CCA; however, governance factors such as ‘improved cooperation’ were also ranked highly. Improving stakeholders' awareness of the availability of adaptation funds and resources, and their responsiveness to funding criteria, is an important implication of our research, as is improving the mobilization of local resources and the private sector. To address the issue of weak cooperation among stakeholders, improving the coordination function of the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC) regarding stakeholder engagement and capacity building is crucial. Ensuring that CCA activities are based on sound information and knowledge from across different disciplines and, importantly, include the perspectives of vulnerable people themselves, ultimately underpins and supports the realization of the above priorities.     

美国关于气候变化对国家安全影响的研究述评

近年来,美国关于气候变化对国家安全影响的研究成果频出。在概述其研究现状及主要成果的基础上,分析了美国在该领域研究的特点及其对我国开展相关研究的启示。美国关于气候变化影响国家安全的研究成果主要体现在围绕气候变化影响美国国家安全的方式、范围、程度以及美国的应对之策等几个方面展开了全面而深入的讨论。其突出特色是：第一,在研究理论和方法方面,与时俱进,转型较快;第二,在研究内容方面,既视野开阔,又有较强的针对性;第三,在研究水平上呈现逐步提高的趋势;第四,在研究体制上,形成官、学、研三位一体的联合研究体制。当前,我国的相关研究还处在起步阶段,在未来的研究中可以借鉴美国的一些有益经验。     

Carbon capture and storage in developing countries: A comparison of Brazil, South Africa and India

The ambition to introduce carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology in developing countries raises particular considerations and challenges, where, most fundamentally, pressing socio-economic needs imply that there are other political priorities than GHG mitigation. This suggests that the interest in, and viability of, large-scale deployment of CCS in developing countries has to be analyzed as a strategic issue in the overall context of national development. But what are then the strategic concerns that may influence developing countries’ decisions to pursue large-scale deployment of CCS technology? The present article takes a first step in answering this question by comparing CCS policies and ongoing activities in Brazil, India and South Africa.     

2021: A Year of Unprecedented Climate Extremes in Eastern Asia,North America,and Europe

The year 2021 was recorded as the 6th warmest since 1880. In addition to large-scale warming, 2021 will be remembered for its unprecedented climate extremes. Here, a review of selected high-impact climate extremes in 2021, with a focus on China, along with an extension to extreme events in North America and Europe is presented. Nine extreme events that occurred in 2021 in China are highlighted, including a rapid transition from cold to warm extremes and sandstorms in spring, consecutive drought in South China and severe thunderstorms in eastern China in the first half of the year, extremely heavy rainfall over Henan Province and Hubei Province during summer, as well as heatwaves, persistent heavy rainfall, and a cold surge during fall. Potential links of extremes in China to four global-scale climate extremes and the underlying physical mechanisms are discussed here, providing insights to understand climate extremes from a global perspective. This serves as a reference for climate event attribution, process understanding, and high-resolution modeling of extreme events.     

无定河区域1981～2001年植被生产力和水量平衡对气候变化的响应

基于土壤-植被-大气系统过程模型(VIP模型)和NOAA-AVHRR遥感信息,模拟了1981～2001年黄土高原无定河区域(36～40°N,108～111°E)植被总第一性生产力(GPP)和水量平衡的时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应.结果表明:该研究区域1981～2001年间气候有明显变暖趋势,斜率为0.08℃·a-1,降水量下降,斜率为-3.2 mm·a-1.GPP年总量1998年前呈上升趋势,之后呈下降趋势,平均值为289g·m-2·a-1(C),最大值和最小值分别为377 g·m-2·a-1(C)(1994年)和143 g·m-2·a-1(C)(2001年).年降水量、蒸散量和径流量随时间都呈下降趋势,且其空间分布有明显的由南向北梯度递减特征.     

石家庄气象站记录的城市热岛效应及其趋势变化

利用石家庄市区站和4个郊区站1962—2009年的气温资料,采用城乡气温对比和线性趋势分析方法,探讨了石家庄站地面城市热岛(UHI)强度特征及其随时间变化情况,以及城市化因素对城市站地面气温长期变化趋势影响.结果表明:石家庄站地面UHI效应明显,且UHI效应在最低气温上表现更突出;UHI强度冬季1月最大,夏季7月最小;UHI强度具有明显的日变化,最高值出现在早晨7—8时,最低值出现在午后14—16时;近48 a,石家庄站附近UHI强度呈显著增加趋势,且最低气温UHI强度比最高气温的增加趋势更明显;从UHI强度增加对地面气温观测记录的影响来看,石家庄站附近1962—2009年期间年平均UHI增温率达到0.19 ℃/(10 a),UHI增温贡献率为67.9％,即该站近48 a记录的年平均地面气温上升趋势,有2/3以上可归因于城市化因素影响.     

Spatially explicit assessment of water embodied in European trade: A product-level multi-regional input-output analysis

Responsible water management in an era of globalised supply chains needs to consider both local and regional water balances and international trade. In this paper, we assess the water footprints of total final demand in the EU-27 at a very detailed product level and spatial scale—an important step towards informed water policy. We apply the multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model EXIOBASE, including water data, to track the distribution of water use along product supply chains within and across countries. This enables the first spatially-explicit MRIO analysis of water embodied in Europe’s external trade for almost 11,000 watersheds world-wide, tracing indirect (“virtual”) water consumption in one country back to those watersheds where the water was actually extracted. We show that the EU-27 indirectly imports large quantities of blue and green water via international trade of products, most notably processed crop products, and these imports far exceed the water used from domestic sources. The Indus, Danube and Mississippi watersheds are the largest individual contributors to the EU-27’s final water consumption, which causes large environmental impacts due to water scarcity in both the Indus and Mississippi watersheds. We conclude by sketching out policy options to ensure that sustainable water management within and outside European borders is not compromised by European consumption.