Prediction of the maximum annual mean sunspot number in the coming solar maximum epoch

Using an earlier correlation analysis between the annual sunspot numbers at sunspot maximum epochs and the minimum annual aa index in the immediately preceding years, the minimum annual aa index (21.6) during 1985–86 implies a maximum annual sunspot number of about 190±40 in the coming solar maximum epoch, in about 1988–89.     

Comparison of long-term trend of solar radius with sunspot activity and flare index

Results are presented from a study of solar radius measurements taken with the solar astrolabe at the TUBITAK National Observatory (TUG) over seven years, 2001–2007. The data series with standard deviation of 0.35 arcsec shows the long-term variational trend with 0.04 arcsec/year. On the other hand, the data series of solar radius are compared with the data of sunspot activity and H-α flare index for the same period. Over the seven year trend, we have found significant linear anti-correlations between the solar radius and other indicators such as sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, and H-α flare index. While the solar radius displays the strongest anti-correlation (−0.7676) with sunspot numbers, it shows a significant anti-correlation of −0.6365 with sunspot areas. But, the anti-correlation between the solar radius and H-α flare index is found to be −0.4975, slightly lower than others. In addition, we computed Hurst exponent of the data sets ranging between 0.7214 and 0.7996, exhibiting the persistent behavior for the long term trend. In the light of the strong correlations with high significance, we may suggest that there are a causal relationship between the solar radius and solar time series such as sunspot activity and H-α flare index.     

Statistical behavior of sunspot groups on the solar disk

In the present study we have produced a diagram of the latitude distribution of sunspot groups from the year 1874 through 1999 and examined statistical characteristics of the mean latitude of sunspot groups. The reliability of the observed data set prior to solar cycle 19 is found quite low as compared with that of the data set observed after cycle 19. A correlation is found between maximum latitude at which first sunspot groups of a new cycle appear and the maximum solar activity of the cycle. It is inferred that solar magnetic activity during the early part of an extended solar cycle may contain some information about the strength of forthcoming solar cycle. A formula is given to describe latitude change of sunspot groups with time during an extended solar cycle. The latitude-migration velocity is found to be largest at the beginning of solar cycle and decreases with time as the cycle progresses with a mean migration velocity of about 1.61° per year.     

Relative sunspot numbers in the first half of eighteenth century

We revised relative sunspot numbers in the time interval 1700–1748 for which Wolf derived their annual means. The frequency of daily observations, counting simultaneously the number of sunspots and the number of sunspot groups necessary for determinating Wolf's relative sunspot numbers, is in this time interval very low and covers, on average, 4.8% of the number of all days only. There also exist incomplete observations not convenient to determine relative sunspot numbers. To enlarge the number of daily relative sunspot numbers we used the nonlinear, two-step interpolation method derived earlier by Letfus (1996, 1999). After interpolation, the mean value increased to 13.8%. Waldmeier (1968) found that the scaling factor k can be derived directly from the observed number of spots f and from the number of sunspot groups g. From the observations made at Zürich (Wolf and his assistants, Wolfer), at Peckeloh, and at Moncalieri during the years 1861–1928, we derived a new, more correct empirical relation. The resulting annual relative sunspot numbers are given in Table II. However, only for 26 years (53.0%) from the total number of 49 years was it possible to derive annual relative sunspot numbers. The observations were missing for the other years. This corresponds with results of Wolf, which gives the annual relative sunspot numbers for all 49 years. For the years when the data were missing, he marked these values as interpolated or very uncertain ones. Most of the observations originate from two data series (Kirch, Plantade), for which Wolf derived a higher scaling factor (k=2.0) than followed from the newly derived relation (k=1.40). The investigated time interval covers four solar cycles. After our results, the height of the first cycle (No. –4), given by Wolf, should be lowered by about two-thirds, the following two cycles (Nos. –3 and –2) lowered by one-third, as given by Wolf, and only the height of the fourth one (No. –1) should be unchanged. The activity levels of the cycles, as represented by group sunspot numbers, are lower by about one-fourth and, in the case of the first one (No. –4) even by two-thirds of the levels derived by us. The group sunspot numbers, derived from a much greater number of observations, have also greater credibility than other estimates. The shapes of the cycles, as given by Wolf, can be considered only as their more or less idealized form.     

A possible relationship between spectral bands in sunspot number and the space-time organization of our planetary system

For the particular purpose of this paper, Zürich relative sunspot numbers of the time spans 1749–1982, 1749–1865, and 1866–1982, have been analysed anew by two different methos. It is shown that the spectral bands in the power spectra of sunspot numbers between 1 and 234 years obtained from these analyses can be clearly related to the modified configuration frequencies of the giant planets and their harmonics. In particular, the clearly dominant spectral band in sunspot number, the solar cycle of 10.8 years, is given by the configuration period of Jupiter and Saturn (19.859 yr) times the ratio of their distances from the Sun (0.545).     

A new look at wolf sunspot numbers in the late 1700's

Long-term homogeneous observations of solar activity or many solar cycles are essential for investigating many problems in solar physics and climatology. The one key parameter used in most long-term studies is the Wolf sunspot number, which is susceptible to observer bias, particularly because it is highly sensitive to the observer's ability to see the smallest sunspots. In this paper we show how the Wolf sunspot number can be derived from the number of sunspot groups alone. We utilize this approach to obtain a Group Wolf number. This technique has advantages over the classical method of determining the Wolf number because corrections for observer differences are reduced and long-term self-consistent time series can be developed. The level of activity can be calculated to an accuracy of ± 5% using this method. Applying the technique to Christian Horrebow's observations of solar cycles 1, 2, and 3 (1761–1777), we find that the standard Wolf numbers are nearly homogeneous with sunspot numbers measured from 1875 to 1976 except the peak of solar cycle 2 is too low by 30%. This result suggests that further analyses of early sunspot observations could lead to significant improvements in the uniformity of the measurements of solar activity. Such improvements could have important impacts upon our understanding of long-term variations in solar activity, such as the Gleissberg cycle, or secular variations in the Earth's climate.     

Variations in the solar rotation rate derived from Ca+ K plage areas

Daily calcium plage areas for the period 1951–1981 (which include the solar cycle 19 and 20) have been used to derive the rotation period of the Sun at latitude belts 10–15 ° N, 15–20 ° N, 10–15 ° S, and 15–20 ° S and also for the entire visible solar disk. The mean rotation periods derived from 10–20 ° S and N, total active area and sunspot numbers were 27.5, 27.9, and 27.8 days (synodic), respectively. A power spectral analysis of the derived rotation rate as a function of time indicates that the rotation rate in each latitude belt varies over time scales ranging from the solar activity cycle, down to about 2 years. Variations in adjacent latitude belts are in phase, whereas those in different hemispheres are not correlated. The rotation rates derived from sunspot numbers also behave similarly though the dependence over the solar cycle are not very apparent. The total plage areas, integrated over the entire visible hemisphere of the Sun shows a dominant periodicity of 7 years in rotation rate, while the other time scales are also discernible.     

Solar differential rotation derived from sunspot observations

Sunspot drawings obtained at National Astronomical Observatory of Japan during the years 1954–1986 were used to determine the differential rotation of the Sun. From the limited data set of three solar cycles it was found that three factors (the level of cycle activity, the cycle phase, and sunspot type) affect the solar rotation rate. The differential rotation varies from cycle to cycle in such a way that the rotation velocity in the low activity cycle (cycle 20) is higher than in the high-activity cycle (cycle 19). The equatorial rotation rate shows a systematic variation within each cycle. The rate is higher at the beginning of the cycle and decreases subsequently. Although quite small, the variation of solar differential rotation with respect to Zürich sunspot type was found. The H and J types show the slowest rotation among all the sunspot types.     

Additional measurements of the high-latitude sunspot rotation rate

We report measurements of the sunspot rotation rate at high sunspot latitutdes for the years 1966–1968. Ten spots at ¦latitude¦ 28 deg were found in our Mees Solar Observatory H patrol records for this period that are suitable for such a study. On the average we find a sidereal rotation rate of 13.70 ± 0.07 deg day^-1 at 31.05 ± 0.01 deg. This result is essentially the same as that obtained by Tang (1980) for the succeeding solar cycle, and significantly larger than Newton and Nunn's (1951) results for the 1934–1944 cycle. Taken together, the full set of measurements in this latitude regime yield a rotation rate in excellent agreement with the result =14^°.37₇–2^°.77 sin², derived by Newton and Nunn from recurrent spots predominatly at lower latitudes throughout the six cycles from 1878–1944.Summer Research Assistant.     

Does sunspot activity originate in slow global oscillations of the sun?

We present preliminary results of a spherical-harmonic-Fourier analysis of sunspot activity during the twenty-two years 1933–1954. The results indicate that the sunspot activity might be originating in global solar oscillations with periods of years and decades. However, except for the axisymmetric mode of degree 6, the set of other axisymmetric modes showing ∼ 11 yr periodicities are different from one sunspot cycle to another. A more detailed analysis, preferably with larger data series, will be needed to arrive at a more definite conclusion.     

Total sunspot area as a solar activity index

Observational time series of the total sunspot area A in the visible solar hemisphere are analyzed. A technique that allows the instability of the scale of these series to be found and corrected has been developed. An internally homogeneous series of the index A on the Greenwich scale can be obtained from 1875 to the present. A method for the approximate calculation of the yearly mean A from the Wolf sunspot numbers known since 1700 is suggested to extend this series into the past. The resulting series of the index A characterizes the solar activity variations over a period of ～300 years. These data are used to study processes in the Solar System related to the variability of the central star.     

Polar coronal holes and the sunspot cycle. A new method to predict sunspot numbers

Twenty years ago, Ohl (1966, 1968) found a correlation between geomagnetic activity around the minimum of the solar cycle and the Wolf sunspot number in the maximum of the following solar cycle. In this paper we shall show that such a relation means indeed a relation between the polar coronal holes area around the minimum of the solar cycle and the sunspot number in the maximum of the next. In fact, a very high positive correlation exists between the temporal evolution of the size of polar coronal holes and the Wolf sunspot number 6.3. years later.     

Prediction of maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 23

Instantaneous predictions of the maximum monthly smoothed sunspot number in solar cycle 23 have been made with a linear regressive model, which gives the predicted maximum value as a function of the smoothed sunspot numbers corresponding to a given month from the minimum in all preceding cycles. These predictions indicate that the intensity of solar activity in the current cycle will be at an average level.     

Do polar faculae on the sun predict a sunspot cycle?

The paper reports the results of the analysis of the data on polar faculae for three solar cycles (1960–1986) at the Kislovodsk Station of the Pulkovo Observatory and on polar bright points in Ca ii K line for two solar cycles (1940–1957) at the Kodaikanal Station of the Indian Institute of Astrophysics. We have noticed that the monthly numbers of polar faculae and polar bright points in Ca ii K line and monthly sunspot areas in each hemisphere of the following solar cycle have a correlation with each other. A new cycle of polar faculae and polar bright points in the Ca ii K line begins after the polar magnetic field reversal. We find that the smaller the period between the ending of the polar field reversal and the beginning of a new sunspot cycle is, the more intense is the cycle itself. The intensity of the forthcoming solar cycle (cycle 22) and the periods of strong fluctuations in activity expected in this cycle are also discussed.     

A “lost” sunspot observation in 1785

The reconstruction of the solar activity during some years of the 18th century is poorly known because there are scarce sunspot observations. The aim of this short contribution is to present a “lost” sunspot observation realized by the Portuguese scientist Sanches Dorta during his observation of the solar eclipse of 1785 from Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). This record was not included in the database compiled by Hoyt and Schatten (1998). We present new estimations of the solar activity during 1785. (© 2005 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Mathematical modelling of the sunspot cycle

The sunspot record for the time interval 1749–1977 can be represented conveniently by an harmonic model comprising a relatively large number of lines. Solar activity can otherwise be considered as a sequence of partly overlapping events, triggered periodically at intervals of the order of 11 years. Each individual cycle is approximated by a function of the Maxwell distribution type; the resulting impulse model consists of the superposition of the independent pulses. Application of these two models for the prediction of annual values of the Wolf sunspot numbers leads to controversial results. Mathematical modelling of the sunspot time series does not give an unambiguous result.     

The influence of sunspot canopies on magnetic inclination measurements in solar plages

Sunspots are known to have large, low-lying magnetic canopies, i.e. horizontal magnetic fields overlying a field-free medium, that cover substantial fractions of active region plage. In this paper we consider the influence of such canopies on the inclination of plage magnetic fields. We find that for observations in spectral lines like 5250.2Å the neglect of a sunspot canopy when determining magnetic inclination angles of plage fields can introduce errors exceeding 5–10°. This is particularly true if the observations do not have high spatial resolution. Thus this effect may explain some of the measurements of substantially inclined fields in solar plages. Furthermore we find that the Fe I 15648 Å line is far superior in giving correct flux-tube inclinations in the presence of a sunspot magnetic canopy. Finally, the inversion of full Stokes profiles is shown to produce more reliable results than results obtained by considering only ratios of individual Stokes profile parameters.     

Hemispherical asymmetries in sunspot areas and auroral frequencies

One thousand and fifty-two aurorae boreales and 554 aurorae australes recorded during the nineteenth century at medium latitudes 55° N or 55° S are compared statistically with the known hemispherical asymmetry of the sums of the areas of sunspots. According to the present study, the solar hemispherical asymmetry may be accompanied by an analogous pattern of the hemispherical frequency of auroral days. For the number of auroral days in each hemisphere beyond the two auroral ovals, a remarkable degree of phase equality with the sunspot areas during the second Gleissberg cycle can be demonstrated.     

Low-dimensional chaos and fractal properties of long-term sunspot activity

Two primary solar-activity indicators sunspot numbers(SNs)and sunspot areas(SAs)in the time interval from November 1874 to December 2012 are used to determine the chaotic and fractal properties of solar activity.The results show that(1)the long-term solar activity is governed by a low-dimensional chaotic strange attractor,and its fractal motion shows a long-term persistence on large scales;(2)both the fractal dimension and maximal Lyapunov exponent of SAs are larger than those of SNs,implying that the dynamical system of SAs is more chaotic and complex than SNs;(3)the predictions of solar activity should only be done for short-to mid-term behaviors due to its intrinsic complexity;moreover,the predictability time of SAs is obviously smaller than that of SNs and previous results.     

Comparison of sunspot area data bases

Sunspot area measurements play an important role in the studies of sunspot groups and variations in solar irradiance. However, the measured areas may be burdened with systematic and random errors, which may affect the results in these fields. Mainly the total solar irradiance models can be improved by using more precise area data. In order to choose the most appropriate area data for a given study or create a homogeneous composite area data base, there is a need to compare the sunspot areas provided by different observatories. In this study we statistically investigated all the available corrected sunspot area data bases for the years 1986 and 1987. We find that the photographic data bases are in good agreement with each other but there are important systematic differences between the photographic and sunspot drawings data bases. We give the characteristic parameters for the systematic and random errors as well as the possible reasons for them.