等离子体参量的空间探测分布及汶川地震前后的扰动分析

近年来国内外对震前电离层异常扰动进行了大量研究,新的观测证据显示,地震活动前的电离层扰动确实存在,而且在震级大于5级的地震发生前几天到几个小时内的孕震区上空会发生显著电离层扰动。大量工作多是基于地基的空间探测,如,通过雷达测高仪探测的电离层F2层的临界频率扰动和偶发ES层变化,以及通过GPS地面接收器探测的电子浓度总含量扰动等。     

地震电离层响应异常时空演化统计特征

本文利用DEMETER卫星运行约6.5年总离子浓度数据和期间全球发生Mw 4.8以上地震参数,自动检测距震中1500 km范围内、震前15天出现电离层扰动,统计电离层扰动异常随地震临近在时间、空间上的演化特征以及异常变化幅度随震级变化规律.数据处理过程中通过控制K_p指数以去掉部分因太阳活动引起的电离层扰动.统计结果显示,地震探测率及电离层响应异常幅度随震级增大而增高.大地震能引起强电离层扰动,扰动幅度可超过背景值1倍以上.全球范围,电离层存在变化活跃区,小幅度电离层扰动趋向于背景变化.北半球中低纬度地区是有利的地震电离层响应监测区.地震相关电离层扰动异常出现频次随地震临近而增高,主要出现在震前一周.空间上,扰动有随地震临近向震中运移的趋势.     

川滇地区电离层垂测站震例数据分析

基于川滇地区电离层垂测普洱站和乐山站记录数据,对2018年云南墨江M_S59和2019年四川长宁MS60地震震前电离层特征参数f_0F_2异常数据进行处理分析。结果显示:在云南墨江地震前第3天,普洱站上空出现显著电离层异常扰动现象,特征参数f_0F_2相对背景阈值的最大异常扰动达64%;在四川长宁地震前第4天,乐山站上空也出现明显电离层异常扰动现象,特征参数f0F2相对背景阈值的最大异常扰动达58%。这些扰动现象很可能属于地震前兆异常。     

基于GPS数据的汶川、九寨沟地震震前电离层异常分析

以2008年5月12日汶川MS8. 0地震和2017年8月8日九寨沟MS7. 0地震为研究对象,利用四川及周边区域GPS数据分析地震发生前四川及周边区域电离层异常时空变化。结果表明:汶川和九寨沟地震发生前,孕震区上空均出现明显的电离层异常扰动。该扰动与汶川和九寨沟地震有一定的相关性,可为川滇区域临震电离层异常监测提供参考震例。     

地震电磁卫星电离层扰动研究进展综述

本文总结了国内外关于地震电离层扰动现象研究的主要进展, 主要介绍了法国DEMETER卫星及其相关的统计研究和震例研究成果, 总结了目前地震电离层扰动前兆震例研究的一般步骤, 介绍了地震孕育过程中产生的电磁异常信息向电离层传播的可能途径, 包括化学途径、 声学途径和电磁途径。 大量的研究成果表明地震电离层异常的存在, 在地震发生前几个小时至几天或几个月电离层扰动被探测到, 但是地震电离层扰动前兆能否作为地震预报方法, 还有许多需要深入研究的问题。 本文提出了地震电离层研究需要解决的几个重要问题。     

2017年九寨沟M7.0地震前临震电离层异常研究

为研究2017年8月8日四川九寨沟M7.0地震前电离层异常,利用地基GNSS(Global Navigation Satellite System)垂直电子总含量(Vertical Total Electron Content, VTEC)和电离层测高仪F2层临界频率(foF2)观测数据,考察了震前20日内电离层变化,发现震前第4日(8月4日)及地震发生前5小时,震中附近上空出现显著电离层正异常。结合异常对应的日地空间环境分析,认为震前第4日出现的异常由磁暴引起,而发震当日出现的临震电离层异常可能与孕震活动有关。本文表明电离层测高仪具有同GNSS VTEC一致的异常检测结果。相比公布时间滞后的GNSS数据及其产品,测高仪数据的获取更加及时,将两种电离层观测手段结合起来,能实现两种技术优势互补,提高地震电离层监测能力。     

基于地基GPS-TEC的中国区域地震电离层效应研究

基于中国陆态网络地基GPS-TEC观测,针对2008～2019年发生在中国区域的7个M_S≥6.0地震,采用滑动四分位距法分析了地震前后的电离层扰动时空分布特征。结果显示,5个地震的震前2～6天,GPS-TEC值出现负异常扰动,地震发生期间及震后电离层TEC出现正异常扰动,主要集中在震后2～7天;GPS观测站距离震中越近,垂直上空的TEC扰动越明显,扰动空间最大范围可达2000km。随着震级的增加,震前电离层TEC异常扰动的发生率有所增加,且异常覆盖的范围也有所扩大。因此,认为震前一周内的电离层TEC变化可能提供揭示电离层扰动与地震活动之间关系的线索。     

玛尼7．5级地震前磁场与电离层异常特征研究

利用中国地磁台网与电离层台站资料，总结了1997年11月8日玛尼7．5级地震前出现的地磁低点位移、地磁日变异常及电离层，f0F2(F2层临界频率)异常现象。对比研究了玛尼7．5级与2001年11月14日昆仑山口西8．1级地震前磁场与电离层异常分布及特征，研究结果显示:2次巨大地震前磁场与电离层短临时空异常特征有较好的一致性，震中周围出现日变异常、拉萨台出现电离层，f0F2明显异常；震前约1个月出现低点位移，其突变分界线通过震中地区。     

2019年长宁M_S 6.0地震前后电离层垂直电子总含量（VTEC）异常扰动分析

2019长宁发生M_S 6.0地震,利用CODE全球电离层格网数据、中国地壳运动观测网络GPS数据、震中区域GPS数据,分别计算全球、中国区域垂直电子总含量(VTEC)异常分布及震中区域站点VTEC时间序列,揭示此次地震发生前后不同空间尺度电离层异常扰动变化。结果表明:地震发生前3天(6月14日),长宁震区上空出现连续电离层异常扰动现象,异常空间分布呈现向磁赤道偏移趋势。VTEC结果的时、空尺度变化反映,本次电离层扰动可能与长宁地震孕震过程有关,可为川滇区域临震电离层异常扰动监测及地震分析预报提供震例依据。     

基于LAIC电场渗透和SAMI2模拟的地震-电离层扰动现象研究

地震会造成电离层电子密度扰动。 基于三维电场渗透模型和SAMI2模型, 模拟地震发生前产生的异常电场对电离层电子密度的影响。 模拟结果表明, 地震前形成的附加电流会引起电离层产生异常电场, 且异常电场值与地震震级和地震发生时间有着明显的相关。 同时异常电场会使电子产生E×B漂移, 造成电子密度扰动。 随着时间的推移, 电子密度扰动逐渐减小且扰动区域会向着靠近磁赤道方向或远离磁赤道方向漂移。     

基于国家电波观测站网电离层垂测数据的地震电离层异常研究进展

地震电离层异常现象已被大量观测所证实,地震电离层异常的特征分析及其物理机理研究对开展地震监测意义重大.近年来,中国电波传播研究所利用国家电波观测站网长期积累的电离层垂测数据,开展了震例分析及其机理研究,初步获得了震前电离层的异常特征,并建立了岩石圈-大气层-电离层电场耦合物理模型.本文简要介绍了近年来我们在该领域的研究进展,并对该领域的发展方向提出建议.      

南极中山站电离层F2层临界频率变化特征

对南极中山站数字式电离层测高仪1995～2002年观测数据的月中值进行了统计分析,揭示了中山站电离层F2层临界频率（foF2）的主要特征：foF2存在明显的日变化和年变化;日变化存在“磁中午异常”现象;年变化中中午foF2在太阳活动低年不出现“冬季异常”,在太阳活动高年出现“半年异常”,即两分点高于两至点.本文结合中山站所处的地理位置,考虑太阳辐射电离、磁层的驱动和中性大气成分变化等因素,分析了这些现象的产生机理.     

1995—1996年云南地区三次强震前地震活动的短期异常

在地震学参量年度异常的背景＾（３）,阐述了１９９５￣１９９６年云南地区发生的孟连、武定、丽江三次强震前的地震活动短期异常,包括地震平静、小震群、窗口地震、调制地震、地震波参数以及４级左右地震向震中迁移等。结果表明,这些异常特征表现突出,其演化进程显示了强震孕育的阶段性。     

地震期间电离层扰动现象研究

介绍了大量的关于地震电离层扰动现象研究的最新进展,研究表明地震发生前的几天或者几个小时电离层扰动被观测到,电离层前兆是确实存在.但要将震前的电离层扰动作为地震短临预报的工具,还有许多值得我们去深入研究和解决的问题.应用空间技术开展大区域范围内电离层参数的实时观测,如用地震电磁卫星、GPS台网、并和地面电离层垂测仪观测相结合,建立“电离层地震前兆监测系统”,无疑会加速这项研究的进程.     

甘肃及其邻区中强震前地震波速度异常

本文收集了若干甘肃及邻区中强震前地震波速度比异常的资料,並初步总结了该区1970年至1983年发生的中强震前地震波速度异常的时空特性。也讨论了该区和其它地区地震波速度比异常特性的区别。十几年的工作表明,V_S/V_P观测资料应用到该区的地震预报中是有可能的。最后,简单地讨论了速度异常研究中的一些问题。     

基于改进型图像信息方法的汶川地震前电离层参量时空特征研究

震前加速破坏阶段地壳岩石破裂过程中可能辐射电磁信号,提取与之相关的电磁信号异常有助于认识地震孕育及破坏过程,从而为防震减灾提供支持.本文提出了改进型图像信息方法(Modified Pattern Informatics Method,MPI方法),并用于汶川地震前电离层参量时空特征信息的提取.通过分析对比处理前后的DEMETER电磁卫星时空图像可以发现,原始时空图像一般存在季节性和空间性的变化规律,较难获得有意义的信息;而采用MPI方法处理后,则发现汶川大地震前,电离层参量存在明显的异常变化.从而,证明了MPI方法具有消除背景趋势、突出短期变化的能力,可以有效地提取强震相关的电磁前兆信息.     

Analysis of ionospheric vertical total electron content before the 1 April 2014 Mw 8.2 Chile earthquake

This paper studies ionospheric vertical total electron content (VTEC) variations before the 1 April 2014 Mw 8.2 Chile earthquake. VTEC derived from 14 global positioning system (GPS) stations and global ionospheric map (GIM) were used to analyze ionospheric variations before the earthquake using the sliding interquartile range method, and the results showed that significant positive VTEC anomalies occurred on 28 March. To explore possible causes of these anomalies, effects of solar and geomagnetic activities were examined, and VTEC variations during 17 March to 31 March in 2009–2013 were cross-compared. Also, VTEC for a full year before the earthquake was investigated. The results indicated that the anomalies were weakly associated with high solar activities and geomagnetic storms and that the anomalies were not normal seasonal and diurnal variations. An analysis of the spatial distribution of the observed anomalies was also presented, and it demonstrated that the anomalies specifically appeared around the epicenter on 28 March. We suggest that the observed anomalies may be associated with the subsequent Chile earthquake. Equatorial anomaly variations were analyzed to discuss the possible physical mechanism, and results showed that the equatorial anomaly unusually increased on 28 March, which indicates that anomalous electric fields generated in the earthquake preparation area and the meridional wind are possible causes of the observed ionospheric anomalies.     

Comparison of variations in the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2 layer critical frequency before the strong Italian earthquakes and during the magnetic storm: Data of the stations for ground-based vertical sounding of the ionosphere

The possible seismic ionospheric effects before two strong earthquakes in Italy, which took place near Rome station (January 7, 1962, M = 6.0; April 5, 1998, M = 5.3), have been studied using the data of several European stations for ground-based vertical sounding of the ionosphere. An analysis of the behavior of the foF2 critical frequencies for the earthquake that occurred on January 7, 1962, made it possible to simultaneously consider the effects, originating during earthquake preparation under quiet geomagnetic conditions and caused by the magnetic strom that began on January 10, 1962, using a unified technique. It has been indicated that the distinguished precursor effects of two considered earthquakes with magnitudes not more than 6.0 are localized in the region with an epicentral distance of about 400 km, whereas the disturbances caused by the magnetic storm are of a planetary character. The amplitude of foF2 seismic ionospheric disturbances is much smaller than the maximal variations caused by the magnetic storm; however, the absolute value of this amplitude is a factor of 1.5 as large as the standard deivation from the monthly median.     

Regularities in the time variations of seismic parameters and their implications for prediction of strong earthquakes in Greece

Time variations in the parameters of seismic activity in two regions in Greece, which are known to have different geodynamical conditions, are analyzed using the FastBEE algorithm suggested in (Papadopoulos and Baskoutas, 2009). The study is based on the data on weak earthquakes that occurred in two local regions. One region pertains to the zone dominated by intensive compression stress field, while another is located in the region of a relatively lower intensity extension stress field. It is shown that in the zone of compression the seismic parameters exhibit anomalous temporal behavior before strong earthquakes with Ms ≥ 5.7, whereas in the zones of extension, similar anomalies precede earthquakes with lower magnitudes of up to Ms ≥ 4.9. The most informative parameters for the purposes of predicting strong seismic events are the released seismic energy in the form logE ^2/3 and the slope of the frequency-magnitude dependence, b-value. The seismic activity in the region, expressed in terms of the logarithmic number of earthquakes, per unit time in some cases does not exhibit any particular pattern of behavior before strong earthquakes. In the time series of the studied parameters, four stages in the seismic process are clearly distinguished before strong earthquakes. Typically, a strong earthquake has a low probability to occur within the first two stages. Instead, this probability arises at stage III and attains its maximum at the end of this stage coinciding with the occurrence of the strong earthquake. We suggest these features of the time series to be used for the assessment of seismic hazard and for the real-time prediction of strong earthquakes. The time variations in the b-value are found to be correlated with the time variations inlogE ^2/3. This correlation is closely approximated by the power-law function. The parameters of this function depend on the geodynamical features of the region and characterize the intensity and the type of the regional tectonic stresses. The results of our study show that the FastBEE algorithm can be successfully applied for monitoring seismic hazard and predicting strong earthquakes.     

Possible Short-Term Precursors of Strong Crustal Earthquakes in Japan based on Data from the Ground Stations of Vertical Ionospheric Sounding

We have studied changes in the ionosphere prior to strong crustal earthquakes with magnitudes of М ≥ 6.5 based on the data from the ground-based stations of vertical ionospheric sounding Kokobunji, Akita, and Wakkanai for the period 1968–2004. The data are analyzed based on hourly measurements of the virtual height and frequency parameters of the sporadic E layer and critical frequency of the regular F2 layer over the course of three days prior to the earthquakes. In the studied intervals of time before all earthquakes, anomalous changes were discovered both in the frequency parameters of the Es and F2 ionospheric layers and in the virtual height of the sporadic E layer; the changes were observed on the same day at stations spaced apart by several hundred kilometers. A high degree of correlation is found between the lead-time of these ionospheric anomalies preceding the seismic impact and the magnitude of the subsequent earthquakes. It is concluded that such ionospheric disturbances can be short-term ionospheric precursors of earthquakes.