Daily weather mapping from 1781:

An account is given of the preparation of daily weather maps within the historical-instrumental period, with details concerning the detection and location of source material and its subsequent examination, collection and reduction to provide a workable synoptic network of comparable meteorological observations over the eastern North Atlantic-European sector. The application of the Lamb British Isles weather types and Grosswetterlagen for the statistical analysis of circulation patterns derived from these charts is discussed. An objective test was devised whereby the frequency of monthly extremes of nine variables was examined with the following important conclusions:

1. the synoptic charts of the 1780s show no evidence of systematic errors when compared with rainfall figures,
2. the early 1780s was a period of unusually high climatic variability on the month-to-month time-scale, especially in the frequencies of cyclonic and of anticyclonic days.

An account is given of the impact of climate on the affairs of man in the 1780s, highlighting some specific historical case studies and discussing agriculture and industry in general.     

High resolution simulations of January and July climate over the western Alpine region with a nested Regional Modeling system

Summary High resolution January and July present day climatologies over the central-western Alpine region are simulated with a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) nested within a General Circulation Model (GCM). The RegCM was developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and is run at 20 km grid point spacing. The model is driven by output from a present day climate simulation performed with the GCM ECHAM3 of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI) at T106 resolution (~ 120 km). Five January and July simulations are conducted with the nested RegCM and the results for surface air temperature and precipitation are compared with a gridded observed dataset and a dataset from 99 observing stations throughout the Swiss territory. The driving ECHAM3 simulation reproduces well the position of the northeastern Atlantic jet, but underestimates the jet intensity over the Mediterranean. Precipitation over the Alpine region in the ECHAM3 simulation is close to observed in January but lower than observed in July. Compared to the driving GCM, the nested RegCM produces more precipitation in both seasons, mostly as a result of the stronger model orographic forcing. Average RegCM temperature over the Swiss region is 2–3 degrees higher than observed, while average precipitation is within 30% of observed values. The spatial distribution of precipitation is in general agreement with available gridded observations and the model reproduces the observed elevation dependency of precipitation in the summer. In the winter the simulated elevation of maximum precipitation amounts is lower than observed. Precipitation frequencies are overestimated, while precipitation intensities show a reasonable agreement with observations, especially in the winter. Sensitivity experiments with different cumulus parameterizations, soil moisture initialization and model topography are discussed. Overall, the model performance at the high resolution used here did not deteriorate compared to previous lower resolution experiments.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.With 11 Figures     

A sensitivity experiment for the removal of Arctic sea ice with the French spectral general circulation model

Sea ice has a major influence on climate in high latitudes. In this paper we analyzed the impact of removal of Arctic sea-ice cover on the climate simulated by a T42 20-level version of the French spectral model Emeraude. The control experiment was the second winter of an annual cycle simulation of the present climate. In the perturbed simulation the Arctic sea-ice cover was replaced by open ocean maintained at the freezing temperature of sea water. The zonal mean patterns of the model response were found to be in good agreement with earlier simulations of Fletcher et al. and Warshaw and Rapp. The atmospheric warming, caused by the increase of upward fluxes of sensible and latent heat and of longwave radiation from the ice-free ocean surface, is largely limited to the high latitudes poleward of 70° N and the lower half of the troposphere and leads to a surface pressure decrease and a precipitation increase over this area. We also analyze the geographical distribution of the response and the mechanisms that can explain the simulated cooling over Eurasia in relation to the energy budget at the surface. Finally, we discuss the reduction of cloud cover over the ice-free Arctic, which was an unexpected result of our simulation, and conclude that further studies are necessary to resolve the question of cumulus convection and cloud process parameterization in high latitudes.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil     

Three basic problems of paleoclimatic modeling: a personal perspective and review

The development of a theory of the evolution of the climate of the earth over millions of years can be subdivided into three fundamental, nested, problems: Firstly, to establish by equilibrium climate models (e.g., general circulation models) the diagnostic relations, valid at any time, between the fast-response climate variables (i.e., the weather statistics) and both the prescribed external radiative forcing and the prescribed distribution of the slow-response variables (e.g., the ice sheets and shelves, the deep ocean state, and the atmospheric CO₂ concentration). Secondly, to construct, by an essentially inductive process, a model of the time-dependent evolution of the slow-response climatic variables over time scales longer than the damping times of these variables but shorter than the time scale of ultra-slow tectonic and astronomical changes in the boundary conditions (e.g., altered geography and elevation of the continents, slow outgassing and weathering and and solar radiative output). Thirdly, to determine the nature of these ultra-slow processes and their effects on the evolution of the equilibrium state of the climatic system about which the previously mentioned time-dependent variations occur. In this review we discuss the basis for this resolution, and give a broad overview of the contributions that have been made thus far in each area, emphasizing the work of the Yale climate group.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil     

Sensitivity of an atmospheric general circulation model to prescribed SST changes: feedback effects associated with the simulation of cloud optical properties

This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dumenil     

Coupling an ocean wave model to an atmospheric general circulation model

A coupled model, consisting of an ocean wave model and an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), is integrated under permanent July conditions. The wave model is forced by the AGCM wind stress, whereas the wind waves modify the AGCM surface fluxes of momentum, sensible and latent heat. We investigate the following aspects of the coupled model: how realistic are the wave fields, how strong is the coupling, and how sensitive is the atmospheric circulation to the spatially and temporally varying wave field. The wave climatology of the coupled model compares favorably with observational data. The interaction between the two models is largest (although weak) in the storm track in the Southern Hemisphere. Young windsea, which is associated with enhanced surface fluxes is generated mostly in the equatorward frontal area of an individual cyclone. However, the enhancement of the surface fluxes is too small to significantly modify the climatological mean atmospheric circulation.This paper was presented at the Second International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Variability, held in Hamburg 7–11 September 1992 under the auspices of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil     

Sensitivity to prescribed changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice in doubled carbon dioxide experiments

Time sclice experiments are performed with the atmospheric GCM ARPEGE, developed at Météo-France, to study the impact to increases in the atmospheric carbon dioxide. This spectral model runs at T42 horizontal resolution with 30 vertical layers including a comprehensive tropospheric and stratospheric resolution and a prognostic parameterization of the ozone mixing ratio. The model is forced in a 5-year control run by climatological SSTs and sea-ice extents in order to obtain an accurate simulation of the present-day climate. Two perturbed runs are performed using SSTs and sea-ice extents for doubled CO₂ concentration, obtained from transient runs performed by two coupled atmospheric-oceanic models run at the Max Planck Institute (MPI) in Hamburg and the Hadley Centre (HC). A global surface temperature warming of 1.6 K is obtained with the MPI SST anomalies and 1.9 K with the HC SST anomalies. The precipitation rate increases by 4.2% (and 4.7%). The features obtained in the stratosphere (a cooling increasing with the altitude and an increase in the ozone mixing ratio) are not sensitive to the oceanic forcing. On the contrary, the anomalies in the troposphere such as a warming increasing with altitude, an acceleration of westerly jets and a raised cloud height, depend on the oceanic forcing imposed in the two perturbed runs. Special attention is given to continental areas where the impact of the oceanic forcing is studied over eight regions around the globe. Regions sensitive to oceanic forcing such as Europe are identified in contrast with areas where the patterns are driven by land-surface physical processes, such as over continental Asia. Finally, the Köppen classification is applied to the climate simulated in the three experiments. Both doubled CO₂ runs show the same predominance of global warming over precipitation changes in the Kbppen analyses.     

An assessment of the Jenkinson and Collison synoptic classification to a continental mid-latitude location

A weather-type catalogue based on the Jenkinson and Collison method was developed for an area in south-west Russia for the period 1961–2010. Gridded sea level pressure data was obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. The resulting catalogue was analysed for frequency of individual types and groups of weather types to characterise long-term atmospheric circulation in this region. Overall, the most frequent type is anticyclonic (A) (23.3 %) followed by cyclonic (C) (11.9 %); however, there are some key seasonal patterns with westerly circulation being significantly more common in winter than summer. The utility of this synoptic classification is evaluated by modelling daily rainfall amounts. A low level of error is found using a simple model based on the prevailing weather type. Finally, characteristics of the circulation classification are compared to those for the original JC British Isles catalogue and a much more equal distribution of flow types is seen in the former classification.     

A first-order global model of late Cenozoic climatic change II. Further analysis based on a simplification of CO2 dynamics

A model developed recently for the long-term variations of global ice mass, carbon dioxide, and mean ocean temperature through the late Cenozoic is simplified by hypothesizing a new equation for the CO₂ variations containing one less adjustable parameter, but retaining the essential physical content of the previous equation (including nonlinearity and the potential for instability). By assuming plausible time constants for the glacial ice mass and global mean ocean temperature, and setting the values of six adjustable parameters (rate constants), a solution for the last 5 My is obtained displaying many of the features observed over this period, including the transition to the near-100 ky major ice-age oscillations of the late Pleistocene. In obtaining this solution it is also assumed that variations in tectonic forcing lead to a reduction of the equilibrium CO₂ concentration (perhaps due to increased weathering of rapidly uplifted mountain ranges over this period). As a consequence of this CO₂ reduction, the model dynamical system can bifurcate to a free oscillatory ice-age regime that is under the pacemaker influence of earthorbital (Milankovitch) forcing. Expanded discussions are given of the surface temperature variations accompanying the evolution of ice, CO₂, and ocean temperature, and of the bifurcation properties of the model from both mathematical and physical viewpoints.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dumenil     

Intra-annual link of spring and autumn precipitation over France

In a previous study, an intra-annual relationship of observed precipitation, manifested by negative correlations between domain-averaged spring and autumn precipitation of the same year, was found in two domains covering France and Central Europe for the period 1972–1990 (Hirschi et al., J Geophys Res 112(D22109), 2007). Here, this link and its temporal evolution over France during the twentieth century is further investigated and related to the atmospheric circulation and North Atlantic/Mediterranean sea surface temperature (SST) patterns. Observational datasets of precipitation, mean sea level pressure (MSLP), atmospheric teleconnection patterns, and SST, as well as various global and regional climate model simulations are analyzed. The investigation of observed precipitation by means of a running correlation with a 30-year time window for the period 1901–present reveals a decreasing trend in the spring-to-autumn correlations, which become significantly negative in the second half of the twentieth century. These negative correlations are connected with similar spring-to-autumn correlations in observed MSLP, and with negatively correlated spring East Atlantic (EA) and autumn Scandinavian (SCA) teleconnection pattern indices. Maximum covariance analyses of SST with these atmospheric variables indicate that at least part of the identified spring-to-autumn link is mediated through SST, as spring precipitation and MSLP are connected with the same autumn SST pattern as are autumn precipitation, MSLP and the SCA pattern index. Except for ERA-40 driven regional climate models from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES, the analyzed regional and global climate models, including Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) simulations, do not capture this observed variability in precipitation. This is associated with the failure of most models in simulating the observed correlations between spring and autumn MSLP. While the causes for the identified relationship cannot be fully established its timing suggests a possible link with increased aerosol loading in the global dimming period.     

Adapting stochastic weather generation algorithms for climate change studies

While large-scale climate models (GCMs) are in principle the most appropriate tools for predicting climate changes, at present little confidence can be placed in the details of their projections. Use of tools such as crop simulation models for investigation of potential impacts of climatic change requires daily data pertaining to small spatial scales, not the monthly-averaged and large-scale information typically available from the GCMs. A method is presented to adapt stochastic weather generation models, describing daily weather variations in the present-day climate at particular locations, to generate synthetic daily time series consistent with assumed future climates. These assumed climates are specified in terms of the commonly available monthly means and variances of temperature and precipitation, including time-dependent (so-called transient) climate changes. Unlike the usual practice of applying assumed changes in mean values to historically observed data, simulation of meteorological time series also exhibiting changes in variability is possible. Considerable freedom in climate change scenario construction is allowed. The results are suitable for investigating agricultural and other impacts of a variety of hypothetical climate changes specified in terms of monthly-averaged statistics.     

Internal secular variability in an ocean general circulation model

We describe results of an experiment in which the Hamburg Large-Scale Geostrophic Ocean General Circulation Model was driven by a spatially correlated white-noise freshwater flux superimposed on the climatological fluxes. In addition to the red-noise character of the oceanic response, the model exhibits pronounced variability in a frequency band around 320 years. The centers of action of this oscillation are the Southern Ocean and the Atlantic.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil.     

Design and performance of a new cloud microphysics scheme developed for the ECHAM general circulation model

A new cloud microphysics scheme including a prognostic treatment of cloud ice (PCI) is developed to yield a more physically based representation of the components of the atmospheric moisture budget in the general circulation model ECHAM. The new approach considers cloud water and cloud ice as separate prognostic variables. The precipitation formation scheme for warm clouds distinguishes between maritime and continental clouds by considering the cloud droplet number concentration, in addition to the liquid water content. Based on several observational data sets, the cloud droplet number concentration is derived from the sulfate aerosol mass concentration as given from the sulfur cycle simulated by ECHAM. Results obtained with the new scheme are compared to satellite observations and in situ measurements of cloud physical and radiative properties. In general, the standard model ECHAM4 and also PCI capture the overall features, and the simulated results usually lie within the range of observed uncertainty. As compared to ECHAM4, only slight improvements are achieved with the new scheme. For example, the overestimated liquid water path and total cloud cover over convectively active regions are reduced in PCI. On the other hand, some shortcomings of the standard model such as underestimated shortwave cloud forcing over the extratropical oceans of the respective summer hemisphere are more pronounced in PCI.This paper was presented at the Third International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 4–9 Sept. 1995 under the auspices of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg. Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil.     

Sensitivity of glaciation to initial snow cover,CO2, snow albedo,and oceanic roughness in the NCAR CCM

We present results from numerical experiments made with a GCM, the NCAR CCM1, that were designed to estimate the annual balance between snow-fall accumulation and ablation for geographically important land regions for a variety of conditions. We also attempt to assess the reliability of these results by investigating model sensitivity to changes in prescribed physical parameters. Experiments were run with an initial imposition of 1 m of (midwinter) snowcover over all northern hemisphere land points. Over Alaska, western Canada, Siberia, and the Tibetan Plateau the model tended to retain this snow cover through the summer and in some cases increase its depth as well. We define these regions as glaciation sensitive and note some correspondence between them and source regions for the Pleistocene ice sheets. An experiment with greatly reduced CO₂ (100 ppm) showed a tendency towards spontaneous glaciation, i.e., the model remained snow-covered throughout the summer over the same geographic regions noted above. With 200 ppm CO₂ (roughly equal to values at the last glacial maximum), snow cover over these regions did not quite survive the summer on a consistent basis. Combining 200 ppm CO₂ and 1 m of initial northern hemisphere snow cover yielded glaciation-sensitive conditions, agreeing remarkably well with locations undergoing glaciation during the Pleistocene. To assess the reliability of these results, we have determined minimal model uncertainty by varying two of the empirical coefficients in the model within physically plausible ranges. In one case surface roughness of all ocean gridpoints was reduced by an order of magnitude, leading to local 10% reductions in precipitation (snowfall), a change hard to distinguish from inherent model variability. In the other case, the fraction of a land grid square assumed to be occupied by snow cover for albedo purposes was varied from one-half to unity. Large changes occurred in the degree of summer melting, and in some cases the sign of the net balance changed as fractional snow cover was changed. We conclude that the model may be able to reveal regions sensitive to glaciation, but that it cannot yield a reliable quantitative computation of the magnitude of the net snow accumulation that can be implicitly or explicitly integrated through time.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dilmenil     

Circulation patterns, daily precipitation in Portugal and implications for climate change simulated by the second Hadley Centre GCM

Based on principal component analysis (PCA) and a k-means clustering algorithm, daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) fields over the northeastern Atlantic and Western Europe, simulated by the Hadley Centre's second generation coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM (HADCM2) control run (HADCM2CON), are validated by comparison with the observed daily MSLP fields. It is clear that HADCM2 reproduces daily MSLP fields and its seasonal variability over the region very well, despite suffering from some deficiencies, such as the systematic displacement of the atmospheric centres of action. Four daily circulation patterns, previously identified from the observed daily MSLP fields over the area and well related to daily precipitation in Portugal, were also well classified from the daily MSLP fields simulated by HADCM2. The model can also simulate rather successfully the relationships between the four daily circulation patterns and daily precipitation in southern Portugal. However, compared with observations, daily precipitation intensities simulated by the model are too weak in southern Portugal. Nevertheless, HADCM2 represents a considerable improvement relative to the UKTR experiment. The results described here imply that it is doubtful whether regional precipitation scenarios provided by HADCM2 can be directly applied in impact studies and that a downscaling technique, based on daily circulation patterns, might be successful in reproducing local and regional precipitation characteristics. Moreover, the four circulation patterns can also be clearly identified in the two perturbed experiments, one under greenhouse gases forcing only (HADCM2GHG) and the other under additional forcing of sulphate aerosol (HADCM2SUL), although changes in the frequencies of occurrence of certain circulation patterns are found. Nevertheless, the observed links between regional precipitation in southern Portugal and large-scale atmospheric circulation seem likely to hold in the model's perturbed climate. It is therefore credible to use those links to downscale large-scale atmospheric circulation from GCM simulations to obtain future precipitation scenarios in southern Portugal. Received: 21 August 1998 / Accepted: 28 May 1999     

Development of global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models

It has long been believed that a climate model capable of realistically simulating many features of global climate, variability, and climate change must interactively represent the major components of the dynamically coupled climate system, particularly the atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere. This effort traditionally has been constrained by computing power, our understanding of the observed system, and climate modeling capability. With the advent of supercomputers, improved understanding of global climate processes, and computationally efficient general circulation climate models, we have witnessed a rapid increase in the simulation of global climate by coupling together various representations of atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice. Beginning in the late 1960s and continuing through the early 1980s, general circulation models (GCMs) of the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice were coupled and run asynchronously to produce credible simulations of the global climate. Systematic errors in these component models later led some modeling groups to use flux correction or flux adjustment, whereby either one or several of the variables at the air-sea interface are adjusted to bring the simulations in closer agreement with observations. Further advances in computing power and climate modeling techniques in the past few years have allowed global coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs to be run synchronously (i.e., atmosphere and ocean communicate at least once each model day). Computing constraints, combined with the need for multidecadal climate integrations, still only allow relatively coarse-grid ocean GCMs to be coupled to correspondingly coarse-grid atmospheric models (on the order of 500 km × 500 km). However, results from this current generation of global, coupled GCMs have revealed interesting characteristics associated with ocean dynamics and global climate in experiments with gradual increases of carbon dioxide. Another somewhat surprising aspect of the global-coupled GCM simulations is the appearance of some features associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Along with concurrent efforts with other types of limited-domain, dynamical coupled models, this has led to the realization that inherent unstable coupled modes exist in the climate system that are the unique product of the interactive coupling of the atmosphere and the ocean. All of these efforts are leading to the next generation of coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs. These models will run on even faster and larger-memory computers and will have higher-resolution atmosphere and ocean components, more accurate sea-ice formulations, improved cloud-radiation schemes, and increasingly realistic land-surface processes.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. DümenilThe National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation     

GCM Simulations of Stable Isotopes in the Water Cycle in Comparison with GNIP Observations over East Asia

In this paper, we examine the performance of four isotope incorporated GCMs, i.e., ECHAM4 (University of Hamburg), HadCM3 (Hadley Centre), GISS E (Goddard Institute of Space Sciences), and MUGCM (Melbourne University), by comparing the model results with GNIP (Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation) observations. The spatial distributions of mean annual δD and mean annual deuterium excess d in precipitation, and the relationship between δ18 o and δD in precipitation, are compared between GCMs and GNIP data over East Asia. Overall, the four GCMs reproduce major characteristics of δD in precipitation as observed by GNIP. Among the four models, the results of ECHAM4 and GISS E are more consistent with GNIP observed precipitation δD distribution. The simulated d distributions are less consistent with the GNIP results. This may indicate that kinetic fractionation processes are not appropriately represented in the isotopic schemes of GCMs. The GCM modeled MWL (meteoric water line) slopes are close to the GNIP derived MWL, but the simulated MWL intercepts are significantly overestimated. This supports that the four isotope incorporated GCMs may not represent the kinetic fractionation processes well. In term of LMWLs (local meteoric water lines), the simulated LMWL slopes are similar to those from GNIP observations, but slightly overestimated for most locations. Overall, ECHAM4 has better capability in simulating MWL and LMWLs, followed by GISS E. Some isotopic functions (especially those related to kinetic fractionation) and their parameterizations in GCMs may have caused the discrepancy between the simulated and GNIP observed results. Future work is recommended to improve isotopic function parameterization on the basis of the high-resolution isotope observations.     

Global warming and the growth of ice sheets

Recent research has suggested that warmer conditions, that may result from increased levels of CO₂ in the atmosphere, may induce the growth of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (Miller and de Vernal 1992) through the impact of warmer temperature on the water carrying capacity of the atmosphere and thus on precipitation. In this study we examine this possibility by using a coupled energy balance climate-thermo-dynamic sea ice model. Results indicate that if summer ice albedo is high enough, and there is some mechanism for initially maintaining ice through the summer season, then it may be possible to have ice sheet growth under the conditions of CO₂ induced warming.This paper was presented at the Second International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Variability, held in Hamburg 7–11 September 1992 under the auspices of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil     

Water Resources of the South Asian Region in a Warmer Atmosphere

The global mean surface temperature may rise by about 0.3oC per decade during the next Few decades as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in the earth’s atmosphere. The data generated in the greenhouse warming simulations (Business-as-Usual scenario of IPCC) with the climate models developed at Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg have been used to assess future plausible hydrological scenario for the South Asian region. The model results indicate enhanced surface warming (2.7oC for summer and 3.6oC for winter) over the land regions of South Asia during the next hundred years. While there is no significant change in the precipitation over most of the land regions during winter, substantial increase in precipitation is likely to occur during summer. As a result, an increase in soil moisture is likely over central India, Bangladesh and South China during summer but a statistically sig-nificant decline in soil moisture is expected over central China in winter. A moderate decrease in surface runoff may occur over large areas of central China during winter while the flood prone areas of NE-India. Bangladesh and South China are likely to have an increase in surface runoff during summer by the end of next century.     

Simulation of marine stratocumulus: effect of precipitation parameterization and sensitivity to droplet number concentration

Marine stratocumulus observations show a large variability in cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) related to variability in aerosol concentration. Changes in CDNC modify the cloud reflectivity, but also affect cloud water content, cloud lifetime, and cloudiness, through changes in precipitation. In mesoscale models and general circulation models (GCMs), precipitation mechanisms are parameterized. Here we examine how the precipitation parameterization can affect the simulated cloud. Simulations are carried out with the one-dimensional version of the hydrostatic primitive equation model MAR (Modéle Atmosphérique Régional) developed at the Université catholique de Louvain. It includes a E- turbulence closure, a wide-band formulation of the radiative transfer, and a parameterized microphysics including prognostic equations for water vapour, cloud droplets and rain drops concentrations. In a first step, the model is used to simulate a horizontally homogeneous stratocumulus deck observed during the Atlantic Stratocumulus Transition Experiment (ASTEX) on the night of 12–13 June 1992. The observations show that the model is able to realistically reproduce the vertical structure of the cloud-topped boundary layer. In a second step, several precipitation parameterizations commonly used in mesoscale models and GCMs are tested. It is found that most parameterizations tend to overestimate the precipitation, which results in an underestimation of the vertically integrated liquid water content. Afterwards, using those parameterizations that are sensitive to CDNC, several simulations are performed to estimate the effect of CDNC variations on the simulated cloud. Based upon the simulation results, we argue that currently used parameterizations do not enable assessment of such a sensitivity.