Culture,demography and biogeography of sponge science: From past conferences to strategic research?

Perceived changes in the culture of sponge science and sponge conferences served as motivation for an evaluation of the sponge science community and research, over time and at present. Observed changes included a decrease in proceedings publications on sponge fossils and freshwater sponges, sponges from temperate environments, review papers and data syntheses, frequency of aquarium studies, and number of species investigated per publication. Publications on recent sponges, hexactinellids, calcareans, marine, Indo‐Pacific and warm‐water sponges increased, as well as the number of authors per publication and the proportion of field studies. Studies at the level of specimens and ultrastructure were gradually replaced by molecular approaches, but studies at the community level remained stable. The five sub‐disciplines morphology/taxonomy, phylogeny/evolution, physiology, ecology and faunistics also retained about equal proportions over time. Conference publications related to taxonomy, phylogeny and biodiversity prevailed, whereas those on management and conservation were rare, possibly because studies on sponge recovery, survival and mortality were also scarce. The community of sponge scientists has grown and become more diverse over time, presently representing 72 nations. The gender distribution evened out since the first sponge conference and presently favours women at early and men at late career stages. Although stated research interests are generally dominated by physiology and ecology, taxonomy and evolution are favoured after retirement. Sponge science has become more dynamic, but maybe also more competitive and less inclusive. We now face the dual challenge of safeguarding against the loss of some sub‐disciplines, and fostering the collaborative, helpful culture characteristic of sponge science.     

Sea-Level Variations Measured by the New Altimetry Mission SARAL/AltiKa and its Validation Based on Spatial Patterns and Temporal Curves Using Jason-2, Tide Gauge Data and an Overview of the Annual Sea Level Budget

High-precision satellite altimeters help in measuring the variations in sea level since the early 1990s. After a number of such successful altimetry missions such as Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Envisat, SARAL/AltiKa, a high resolution altimetry mission based on the Ka frequency band that can also cover high latitudinal zones, was launched in February 2013. Even though the data set available from this recent mission is not yet suitable for climate research owing to its short duration, in this study we perform a preliminary validation of SARAL/AltiKa sea-level data. The first part of the validation is the comparison of SARAL/AltiKa and Jason-2 sea-level data between March 2013 and August 2014 in terms of temporal mean spatial pattern. Comparisons in terms of global mean sea-level time series and latitudinal band-based mean time series are also performed. The second part of the validation is the comparison of the SARAL/AltiKa sea-level based time series with several tide gauge records covering the period of our study. Finally, an analysis of the annual sea-level budget with SARAL/AltiKa data, steric sea level, and ocean mass is performed. Results of these preliminary comparisons show good agreement with other sea-level data.     

A random walk model for simulating simultaneous currents at several depths

Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is used in conjunction with Markov chains to generate simultaneous current time series at several depths with a random walk model. Duration statistics and probability distributions for EOF modes obtained from real data are used to generate transition probability matrices for the random walk model. New time series of EOF modes are generated, and then combined to produce current time series. The technique has been tested on data from Haltenbanken. Statistical properties of real and simulated time series were compared. Results indicate that the model is acceptable as a tool in simulating current time series to be used in offshore operation models.     

基于Prophet算法的海南近海波浪长时段时序分析与预测

近年来,以大数据为基础的人工智能算法逐步兴起并被用于海洋波浪短期预测。本文采用2015−2019年海南近海逐时波浪实测时序数据,基于Prophet算法建立了海南近海波浪长时段时序预测模型,分析了2015−2019年海南近海波浪日、月、年变化特性,并对海南近海2020年波浪变化过程进行了预测。结果显示,Prophet算法模型对波浪波高和周期的预测值和实测值整体吻合良好,可有效用于长时段波浪的特性分析和时序预测。     

A hybrid efficient method to downscale wave climate to coastal areas

Long-term time series of sea state parameters are required in different coastal engineering applications. In order to obtain wave data at shallow water and due to the scarcity of instrumental data, ocean wave reanalysis databases ought to be downscaled to increase the spatial resolution and simulate the wave transformation process. In this paper, a hybrid downscaling methodology to transfer wave climate to coastal areas has been developed combining a numerical wave model (dynamical downscaling) with mathematical tools (statistical downscaling). A maximum dissimilarity selection algorithm (MDA) is applied in order to obtain a representative subset of sea states in deep water areas. The reduced number of selected cases spans the marine climate variability, guaranteeing that all possible sea states are represented and capturing even the extreme events. These sea states are propagated using a state-of-the-art wave propagation model. The time series of the propagated sea state parameters at a particular location are reconstructed using a non-linear interpolation technique based on radial basis functions (RBFs), providing excellent results in a high dimensional space with scattered data as occurs in the cases selected with MDA. The numerical validation of the results confirms the ability of the developed methodology to reconstruct sea state time series in shallow water at a particular location and to estimate different spatial wave climate parameters with a considerable reduction in the computational effort.     

System identification for nonlinear maneuvering of large tankers using artificial neural network

This paper deals with the application of nonparametric system identification to a nonlinear maneuvering model for large tankers using artificial neural network method. The three coupled maneuvering equations in this model for large tankers contain linear and nonlinear terms and instead of attempting to determine the parameters (i.e. hydrodynamic derivatives) associated with nonlinear terms, all nonlinear terms are clubbed together to form one unknown time function per equation which are sought to be represented by the neural network coefficients. The time series used in training the network are obtained from simulated data of zigzag maneuvers and the proposed method has been applied to these data. The neural network scheme adopted in this work has one middle or hidden layer of neurons and it employs the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm. Using the best choices for the number of hidden layer neurons, length of training data, convergence tolerance etc., the performance of the proposed neural network model has been investigated and conclusions drawn.     

Methods for detecting regime shifts in large marine ecosystems: a review with approaches applied to North Pacific data

This note provides a brief review of five analytical methods previously used or promoted for diagnosing regime shifts in marine ecosystems. The methods discussed are: (i) principal components analysis, (ii) compositing average standard deviates, (iii) autoregressive moving average and intervention analysis modeling, (iv) vector autoregressive process modeling, and (v) Fisher information. Assessments of the relative strengths and weaknesses for the different analytical approaches are also offered. Some of these methods are applied to a collection of fishery oceanographic time series for the N. Pacific to illustrate aspects of their relative utility and limitations for diagnosing regime shift behavior. One recommendation for future studies is to analyze biotic and abiotic time series separately in order to identify ecosystem state variables of interest and to better isolate ecosystem behaviors from other influences like environmental change. Methods that allow for quantitative assessments of the statistical significance of hypothesized regime shifts should be favored over those that do not. Analyses of especially large collections of time series may benefit from first using a data compression technique and then applying one of the methods that are more appropriate for just one or a small number of time series. Because of the difficulties in observing and adequately documenting many aspects of marine ecosystem variability, it is crucial that future research attempt to combine empirical studies of large marine ecosystems with theoretical and modeling studies of other systems for which the dynamics and predictability are better understood. With such a comparative approach it should be possible to refine conceptual and simulation models, while also identifying crucial gaps in existing observations.     

Control of the repeatability of high frequency multibeam echosounder backscatter by using natural reference areas

The increased use of backscatter measurements in time series for environmental monitoring necessitates the comparability of individual results. With the current lack of pre-calibrated multibeam echosounder systems for absolute backscatter measurement, a pragmatic solution is the use of natural reference areas for ensuring regular assessment of the backscatter measurement repeatability. This method mainly relies on the assumption of a sufficiently stable reference area regarding its backscatter signature. The aptitude of a natural area to provide a stable and uniform backscatter response must be carefully considered and demonstrated by a sufficiently long time-series of measurements. Furthermore, this approach requires a strict control of the acquisition and processing parameters. If all these conditions are met, stability check and relative calibration of a system are possible by comparison with the averaged backscatter values for the area. Based on a common multibeam echosounder and sampling campaign completed by available bathymetric and backscatter time series, the suitability as a backscatter reference area of three different candidates was evaluated. Two among them, Carré Renard and Kwinte, prove to be excellent choices, while the third one, Western Solent, lacks sufficient data over time, but remains a valuable candidate. The case studies and the available backscatter data on these areas prove the applicability of this method. The expansion of the number of commonly used reference areas and the growth of the number of multibeam echosounder controlled thereon could greatly contribute to the further development of quantitative applications based on multibeam echosounder backscatter measurements.     

Gender analysis for better coastal management – Increasing our understanding of social-ecological seascapes

Although highly recognized as needed, studies linking gender and coastal/marine management are scarce. This research illustrates the importance of gender analysis in natural resource management by linking gender and coastal management i.e. Marine Spatial Planning. The research was conducted in various Zanzibar seascapes (Unguja Island, Tanzania). Using a typology comprising gender structure, symbolism and identity; the results show a clear gendered division of labor, highly associated with a gender symbolism in which traditional roles of women as responsible for reproduction activities played a major role. Men used the whole seascape for their activities, while women remained in coastal forests and shallow areas collecting wood, invertebrates and farming seaweed. These activities allowed women to combine productive and reproductive work. Ecosystem importance for subsistence decreased with distance from land for both genders, while the importance for income increased with distance for men. Both genders acknowledged seagrasses as very important for income. Income closely followed the universal pattern of men earning more. Identities were defined by traditional ideas like “women are housewives”, while men identities were strongly associated with fisheries with reinforced masculinity. Livelihood diversity was higher for women also showing a tendency of slow change into other roles. Management was found to be strongly androcentric, revealing a deep gender inequality. The research exemplifies how a gender analysis can be conducted for management enhancement. It also invites replication around the world. If management is found to be androcentric in coastal locations elsewhere, a serious gender inequality can be at hand at global level.     

Implemented Lomb-Scargle periodogram: a valuable tool for improving cyclostratigraphic research on unevenly sampled deep-sea stratigraphic sequences

One important handicap when working with stratigraphic sequences is the discontinuous character of the sedimentary record, especially relevant in cyclostratigraphic analysis. Uneven palaeoclimatic/palaeoceanographic time series are common, their cyclostratigraphic analysis being comparatively difficult because most spectral methodologies are appropriate only when working with even sampling. As a means to solve this problem, a program for calculating the smoothed Lomb-Scargle periodogram and cross-periodogram, which additionally evaluates the statistical confidence of the estimated power spectrum through a Monte Carlo procedure (the permutation test), has been developed. The spectral analysis of a short uneven time series calls for assessment of the statistical significance of the spectral peaks, since a periodogram can always be calculated but the main challenge resides in identifying true spectral features. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this program, two case studies are presented: the one deals with synthetic data and the other with paleoceanographic/palaeoclimatic proxies. On a simulated time series of 500 data, two uneven time series (with 100 and 25 data) were generated by selecting data at random. Comparative analysis between the power spectra from the simulated series and from the two uneven time series demonstrates the usefulness of the smoothed Lomb-Scargle periodogram for uneven sequences, making it possible to distinguish between statistically significant and spurious spectral peaks. Fragmentary time series of Cd/Ca ratios and ??¹⁸O from core AII107-131 of SPECMAP were analysed as a real case study. The efficiency of the direct and cross Lomb-Scargle periodogram in recognizing Milankovitch and sub-Milankovitch signals related to palaeoclimatic/palaeoceanographic changes is demonstrated. As implemented, the Lomb-Scargle periodogram may be applied to any palaeoclimatic/palaeoceanographic proxies, including those usually recovered from contourites, and it holds special interest in the context of centennial- to millennial-scale climatic changes affecting contouritic currents.     

海洋多要素长时间序列的motif规则树构建方法研究

对海洋数据进行挖掘能够有效地预测海洋灾害事件。海洋监测数据具有时序长、间隔短、多要素间强关联的特点,对长时间序列进行直接分析挖掘速度慢、效率低,现有方法大多采用符号化时间序列方法,但可能导致部分信息丢失且破坏 要素间的关联性。本文定义了时间序列 motif,用于发现时间序列中重复出现的,先前未知的局部信息,解决了符号化导致的信息丢失的问题,实现了时间序列 motif 的精确快速提取。通过构建 motif 规则树,实现了海洋多要素时间序列间强关联规则的挖掘。最后,给出关联规则评价参数,同随机游走数据对比后,证明了本文方法的有效性。     

TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason Equatorial Sea Surface Slope Anomaly in the Atlantic in 2002: Comparison with Wind and Current Measurements at 23W

A time series of velocity profile in the upper 150 m of the equatorial Atlantic was gathered at 23W in 2002 within the PIRATA program. It constitutes the first time series of near surface current measurements simultaneous with altimetric data in the equatorial Atlantic. The surface slope anomaly along the equator is computed from satellite altimetry, and, as a proxy for the pressure gradient along the equator, compared with the wind and near surface current data. In a first step, a time series of the surface slope anomaly along the equator in the Atlantic is computed from the 10-year-long TOPEX/Poseidon sea level anomalies. A sensitivity study establishes the robustness of the calculation. Apart from a 15 cm bias, the equatorial sea surface slope anomalies estimated either from TOPEX/Poseidon or from Jason over the 6-month overlap (Feb.-Aug. 2002) do not reveal drastic differences. We produce two sea surface slope anomaly composite time series for 2002 (one with T/P data, the other with Jason data during the commissioning phase) and compare them to the wind and velocity data at 23W. As expected, the near surface velocity and depth of the upper limit of the equatorial undercurrent (EUC) are extremely well correlated with the surface pressure gradient anomaly. 10-year-long time series of altimetry-derived zonal sea surface slope anomaly and ECMWF ERA40 wind stress are also well correlated. They exhibit similar spectral content and similar anomalous years. This is a first step towards a full analysis of the EUC dynamics using altimetry, PIRATA data (near surface current and subsurface thermohaline structure) and model. These initial comparisons reinforce the utility of Jason measurements for continuing the 10-year and highly accurate TOPEX/Poseidon time series for study of equatorial signals.     

TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason Equatorial Sea Surface Slope Anomaly in the Atlantic in 2002: Comparison with Wind and Current Measurements at 23W

A time series of velocity profile in the upper 150 m of the equatorial Atlantic was gathered at 23W in 2002 within the PIRATA program. It constitutes the first time series of near surface current measurements simultaneous with altimetric data in the equatorial Atlantic. The surface slope anomaly along the equator is computed from satellite altimetry, and, as a proxy for the pressure gradient along the equator, compared with the wind and near surface current data. In a first step, a time series of the surface slope anomaly along the equator in the Atlantic is computed from the 10-year-long TOPEX/Poseidon sea level anomalies. A sensitivity study establishes the robustness of the calculation. Apart from a 15 cm bias, the equatorial sea surface slope anomalies estimated either from TOPEX/Poseidon or from Jason over the 6-month overlap (Feb.–Aug. 2002) do not reveal drastic differences. We produce two sea surface slope anomaly composite time series for 2002 (one with T/P data, the other with Jason data during the commissioning phase) and compare them to the wind and velocity data at 23W. As expected, the near surface velocity and depth of the upper limit of the equatorial undercurrent (EUC) are extremely well correlated with the surface pressure gradient anomaly. 10-year-long time series of altimetry-derived zonal sea surface slope anomaly and ECMWF ERA40 wind stress are also well correlated. They exhibit similar spectral content and similar anomalous years. This is a first step towards a full analysis of the EUC dynamics using altimetry, PIRATA data (near surface current and subsurface thermohaline structure) and model. These initial comparisons reinforce the utility of Jason measurements for continuing the 10-year and highly accurate TOPEX/Poseidon time series for study of equatorial signals.     

渔获量时间序列长度对基于CMSY方法的资源评估结果的影响

大多数渔业种类由于数据缺乏,无法使用传统的渔业资源评估方法开展评估和管理。越来越多的研究采用CMSY等基于有限数据的评估方法,但CMSY方法在渔获量数据时间序列长度有限、存在误差等情况下的评估可靠性尚有待验证。本研究运用CMSY方法对黄海3种产量较高的经济鱼类开展资源评估,探索渔获量数据时间序列长度、不同渔业发展阶段,以及观测误差水平对评估结果的影响。结果表明,鲐、带鱼和银鲳在2000年后均出现产量高于最大可持续产量（MSY）的情况,资源处于过度利用状况（B/B_MSY<1、F/F_MSY>1）,近10年来开发强度降低,但生物量仍处于较低水平（B/B_MSY<1）。评估模型的回溯性分析结果差异较小,表明评估结果稳定。从数据长度上看,使用遍历产量上升和下降过程的长时间序列数据,其评估结果更为稳定。在观测误差大于20%的情况下,模型对MSY和B_MSY出现高估,但结果仍较为稳健。在CMSY方法的应用中应注意选取长时间序列的产量数据,在评估结果不确定性高的情况下应采取相对保守的渔业管理措施。     

The calibration of wind and wave model data in the Mediterranean Sea

Three sources of long-term wind and wave data are available in the Mediterranean Sea: numerical models, satellites and buoys. We make use of the overall information to obtain calibrated decadal time series at a large number of points, distributed at 0.5° intervals. We discuss the accuracy of the three sources and point out the errors that affect the accuracy of the final results.     

Climate-based Monte Carlo simulation of trivariate sea states

Accurate wave climate characterization, which is vital to understand wave-driven coastal processes and to design coastal and offshore structures, requires the availability of long term data series. Where existing data are sparse, synthetically generated time series offer a practical alternative. The main purpose of this paper is to propose a methodology to simulate multivariate hourly sea state time series that preserve the statistical characteristics of the existing empirical data. This methodology combines different techniques such as univariate ARMAs, autoregressive logistic regression and K-means clusterization algorithms, and is able to take into account different time and space scales. The proposed methodology can be broken down into three interrelated steps: i) simulation of sea level pressure fields, ii) simulation of daily mean sea conditions time series and iii) simulation of hourly sea state time series. Its effectiveness is demonstrated by synthetically generating multivariate hourly sea states from a specific location near the Spanish Coast. The direct comparison between simulated and empirical time series confirms the ability of the developed methodology to generate multivariate hourly time series of sea states. Finally, the potential of the proposed methodology to simulate multivariate time series at multiple locations and incorporate climate change issues is discussed.     

Weak-mode identification and time-series reconstruction from high-level noisy measured data of offshore structures

The identification of true weak modes buried in high-level, noisy, measured data from offshore structures is a practical but challenging problem because weak modes are typically eliminated as noise and rarely, yield a discrete time series. This study proposes a weak-mode identification and time-series reconstruction method for offshore structures when high-level noise is present. A theoretical development proposed in this study extends the traditional modal analysis to reconstructing the discrete time series of weak modes, thereby removing its previous limitations to only frequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes. Additionally, a second development proposed in this study makes the reconstructed time series not simply a combination of harmonic components from a Fourier transform but rather complex exponentials; the damping of the test structure is thus estimated with a better accuracy. A third theoretical development avoids variations in the results from different original signals by handling multiple signals simultaneously. The proposed approach primarily includes three steps: (1) estimate the poles and corresponding residues of high-level, noisy, measured data by converting high-order difference equations to first-order difference equations; (2) isolate the poles of weak modes by assigning multiple rough-pole windows, and subsequently extract the corresponding residues based on the row number of the isolated pole vector; and (3) identify and reconstruct the time series of the weak modes of interest in the form of complex exponentials. The most primary advantage of the proposed process in engineering applications is that the pole windows can be easily obtained and assigned from the relationship between the frequencies and their poles. Three numerical examples are studied: the first presents the detailed numerical operation of the proposed method, the second extends the proposed method from managing one signal to managing multiple signals, and the third demonstrates the advantage of the approach compared with traditional methods. The numerical results indicate that the original signals can be decomposed into multiple complex exponentials with representative poles and corresponding residues, and that the new signals representing weak modes could be reconstructed by assigning a range of frequencies in terms of their relations with the poles. To study the performance of the proposed method when applied to offshore structures such as offshore platforms and marine risers, the experimental data from the high mode VIV experiments sponsored by the Norwegian Deepwater Programme (NDP) are used firstly. The results show that two dominant frequencies corresponding to the in-line and cross-flow directions can be identified simultaneously even one mode is very weak compared with the other, and the time series of the weak mode could be reconstructed with a rough frequency window. Then sea-test data of two offshore platforms are used: one was collected from the JZ20-2MUQ offshore platform when it was excited by ice, and the other was collected from the WZ11-4D platform when it was excited by waves. The results further demonstrated that a large model order is required to estimate all poles and residues of the original noisy signals, and that the row number corresponding to a weak mode of the isolated pole matrix could be easily determined via finite element analysis or engineering experiences. Therefore, the proposed approach provides not only modal parameters, such as frequencies and damping ratios of true weak modes buried in high-level noise, but also the discrete time series of the weak mode.     

时间不连续压力序列的傅立叶分析方法

提出了一种用于对不连续压力采样序列的傅立叶分析方法.此方法将周期函数展开成傅立叶级数,但在数值积分时取函数周期内有采样值的区间作为积分域,然后求解线性方程组得到傅立叶级数的系数值.为了检验本方法的有效性,利用此方法对解析函数进行了拟合,当一个周期内的取样时间大于1/2周期时,利用此方法能够得到满意的结果.利用实验方法研究了波浪作用下截断圆柱表面的压力分布.在波浪作用下静水面附近的测点在露出水面时没有压力值.利用所提出的傅立叶分析方法对略低于静水面位置的实测压力进行了分析,拟合结果与实测结果吻合很好,说明此方法在处理物理模型实验中间断采样得到的数据是有效的.利用数值方法对波浪压力进行了计算,并将一阶和二阶波压力的数值结果与实测值进行了比较.     

Sea surface temperature 1871-2099 in 38 cells in the Caribbean region

Sea surface temperature (SST) data with monthly resolution are provided for 38 cells in the Caribbean Sea and Bahamas region, plus Bermuda. These series are derived from the HadISST1 data set for historical time (1871-1999) and from the HadCM3 coupled climate model for predicted SST (1950-2099). Statistical scaling of the forecast data sets are performed to produce confluent SST series according to a now established method. These SST series are available for download. High water temperatures in 1998 killed enormous amounts of corals in tropical seas, though in the Caribbean region the effects at that time appeared less marked than in the Indo-Pacific. However, SSTs are rising in accordance with world-wide trends and it has been predicted that temperature will become increasingly important in this region in the near future. Patterns of SST rise within the Caribbean region are shown, and the importance of sub-regional patterns within this biologically highly interconnected area are noted.