东亚沿岸近期相对海平面的升降趋势

根据东亚沿岸４５个水位观测站的长序列水位资料，用不同的计算区域平均海平面升降的方法，估计了该区海平面升降趋势。结果表明，从本世纪５０年代初至９０年代初，整个海区平均而言海平面呈上升趋势。海平面升降的区域性变化较大：中国沿岸除山东半岛外，其他海区平均是上升的，在日本群岛南部和朝鲜半岛南部沿岸，由几种方法得出的结果多数是上升的，但上升幅度很小。本文对东亚沿岸海平面升降的估计结果与Ｂａｒｎｅｔｔ的相应估计差别较大，其主要原因是Ｂａｒｎｅｔｔ选站较少，且选的站集中在该区南北两端，中间部分无资料；估计方法虽有影响，但属次要的。     

Trend analysis of relative sea level rise or fall of the tide gauge stations in the Pacific

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Sea level variation in the eastern Asia

Mean sea level variations in the eastern Asia region during 1950 to 1991 are investigated with the use of observed sea level data at 16 stations. It is suggested from the data analysis, that the main cause of long-term sea level variation in this region may be the plate tectonic processes. The mean sea levels along the eastern coasts of Japan and the Philippines, and that along the southern coast of Indonesia have risen due to the subsidence of Pacific, Philippine and Australian plates under the Eurasian plate, respectively. On the other hand, the mean sea levels along the western coasts of Japan and the Philippines, and that along the northern coast of Indonesia have fallen. The distribution map of mean sea level rise at the year 2030 from 1985 in this region is presented on the basis of the results of this work and IPCC (1990).     

Sea Level Variations and Geomorphological Changes in the Coastal Belt of Pakistan

The UNEP in its regional seas program in 1989 has included Pakistan in a group of countries which are vulnerable to the impact of rising sea level. If the present trend of sea level rise (SLR) at Karachi continues, in the next 50 years the sea level rise along the Pakistan Coast will be 50 mm (5 cm). Since the rising rates of sea level at Karachi are within the global range of 1-2 mm/year, the trends may be treated as eustatic SLR. Historical air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) data of Karachi also show an increasing pattern and an increasing trend of about 0.67°C has been registered in the air temperature over the last 35 years, whereas the mean SST in the coastal waters of Karachi has also registered an increasing trend of about 0.3°C in a decade. Sindh coastal zone is more vulnerable to sea level rise than Baluchistan coast, as uplifting of the coast by about 1-2 mm/year due to subduction of Indian Ocean plate is a characteristic of Baluchistan coast. Within the Indus deltaic creek system, the area nearby Karachi is more vulnerable to coastal erosion and accretion than the other deltaic region, mainly due to human activities together with natural phenomena such as wave action, strong tidal currents, and rise in sea level. Therefore, The present article deals mainly with the study of dynamical processes such as erosion and accretion associated with sea level variations along the Karachi coast and surrounding Indus deltaic coastline. The probable beach erosion in a decade along the sandy beaches of Karachi has been estimated. The estimates show that 1.1 mm/year rise in sea level causes a horizontal beach loss of 110 mm per year. Therefore, coast eroded with rise in sea level at Karachi and surrounding sandy beaches would be 1.1 m during a period of next 10 years. The northwestern part of Indus delta, especially the Gizri and Phitti creeks and surrounding islands, are most unstable. Historical satellite images are used to analyze the complex pattern of sediment movements, the change in shape of coastline, and associated erosion and accretion patterns in Bundal and Buddo Islands. The significant changes in land erosion and accretion areas at Bundal and Buddo Islands are evident and appear prominently in the images. A very high rate of accretion of sediments in the northwestern part of Buddo Island has been noticed. In the southwest monsoon season the wave breaking direction in both these islands is such that the movement of littoral drift is towards west. Erosion is also taking place in the northeastern and southern part of Bundal Island. The erosion in the south is probably due to strong wave activities and in the northeast is due to strong tidal currents and seawater intrusion. Accretion takes place at the northwest and western parts of Bundal Island. By using the slope of Indus delta, sea encroachment and the land area inundation with rising sea level of 1 m and 2 m have also been estimated.     

Sea Level Variations and Geomorphological Changes in the Coastal Belt of Pakistan

The UNEP in its regional seas program in 1989 has included Pakistan in a group of countries which are vulnerable to the impact of rising sea level. If the present trend of sea level rise (SLR) at Karachi continues, in the next 50 years the sea level rise along the Pakistan Coast will be 50 mm (5 cm). Since the rising rates of sea level at Karachi are within the global range of 1-2 mm/year, the trends may be treated as eustatic SLR. Historical air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) data of Karachi also show an increasing pattern and an increasing trend of about 0.67°C has been registered in the air temperature over the last 35 years, whereas the mean SST in the coastal waters of Karachi has also registered an increasing trend of about 0.3°C in a decade. Sindh coastal zone is more vulnerable to sea level rise than Baluchistan coast, as uplifting of the coast by about 1-2 mm/year due to subduction of Indian Ocean plate is a characteristic of Baluchistan coast. Within the Indus deltaic creek system, the area nearby Karachi is more vulnerable to coastal erosion and accretion than the other deltaic region, mainly due to human activities together with natural phenomena such as wave action, strong tidal currents, and rise in sea level. Therefore, The present article deals mainly with the study of dynamical processes such as erosion and accretion associated with sea level variations along the Karachi coast and surrounding Indus deltaic coastline. The probable beach erosion in a decade along the sandy beaches of Karachi has been estimated. The estimates show that 1.1 mm/year rise in sea level causes a horizontal beach loss of 110 mm per year. Therefore, coast eroded with rise in sea level at Karachi and surrounding sandy beaches would be 1.1 m during a period of next 10 years. The northwestern part of Indus delta, especially the Gizri and Phitti creeks and surrounding islands, are most unstable. Historical satellite images are used to analyze the complex pattern of sediment movements, the change in shape of coastline, and associated erosion and accretion patterns in Bundal and Buddo Islands. The significant changes in land erosion and accretion areas at Bundal and Buddo Islands are evident and appear prominently in the images. A very high rate of accretion of sediments in the northwestern part of Buddo Island has been noticed. In the southwest monsoon season the wave breaking direction in both these islands is such that the movement of littoral drift is towards west. Erosion is also taking place in the northeastern and southern part of Bundal Island. The erosion in the south is probably due to strong wave activities and in the northeast is due to strong tidal currents and seawater intrusion. Accretion takes place at the northwest and western parts of Bundal Island. By using the slope of Indus delta, sea encroachment and the land area inundation with rising sea level of 1 m and 2 m have also been estimated.     

Recent Sea Level and Sea Surface Temperature Trends Along the Bangladesh Coast in Relation to the Frequency of Intense Cyclones

Bangladesh, one of the most densely populated countries in the world, is a victim of frequent natural calamities like tropical cyclones, tornadoes, floods, storm surges and droughts. Now the sea level rise (SLR) has also been included in these natural calamities. The SLR is likely to have greater impact on that part of Bangladesh having low topography and a wide flood plain. Since 21% of the population lives in the low coastal belt, any increase in sea level will be a problem of ominous proportion for Bangladesh. Since the cyclogenesis enhances over the Bay of Bengal during May and November, the sea level and sea surface temperature (SST) trends of these two months have been analyzed and calculated. The results of the selected stations one in the eastern coast and another in the western coast of Bangladesh show that Bangladesh coastal sea level is rising in the same way as the global sea level, but the magnitude is quite different. The difference in the behavior of sea level rise along the Bangladesh coast and the global trend may be due to the tectonic activity such as subsidence of the land. The mean tide level at Hiron Point (in Sunderbans) has shown an increasing trend of about 2.5 mm/year in May and 8.5 mm/year in November. Similarly near Cox?s Bazar (in the eastern coast of Bangladesh) it has registered a positive trend of about 4.3 mm/year in May and 10.9 mm/year in November. Thus the increment in the sea level along the Bangladesh coast during cyclone months is much more pronounced. In coastal waters near Hiron Point the SST has registered an increasing trend of about 1°C in May and 0.5°C in November during the 14-year period from 1985?1998. Near Cox?s Bazar, SST has shown a rising trend of about 0.8°C in May and about 0.4°C in November during the same 14-year period. The magnitude of SST trend is slightly more along the west coast. Any change in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones will have far reaching implications in the South Asian region. The rise in SST in the cyclone months seems to be correlated with the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. During these months, an increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of severe cyclones has been observed.     

中国沿海验潮站及其邻近地区陆地垂直运动分析

利用中国沿岸验潮站GNSS和邻近地区陆态网络GNSS基准站观测数据,结合卫星高度计和验潮站海平面观测数据分析了中国沿海验潮站及其邻近地区陆地垂直运动特征。中国沿海海平面观测以及验潮站和陆态网GNSS基准站观测结果显示,中国沿海省区市及沿海验潮站陆地垂直运动总体表现为：辽宁至江苏沿海上升、上海至福建泉州沿海沉降、福建厦门至广西沿海升降交替的格局,局部滨海平原地区如华北平原天津南部、河北平原的沧县则表现出显著的沉降特征。验潮站陆地的抬升与沉降是沿海相对海平面变化的重要组成部分,准确掌握验潮站及其邻近区域的陆地垂直运动特征,可为沿海相对海平面变化分析、海平面变化影响评估以及未来海平面上升预测提供依据。     

中国沿岸现代相对海平面上升加剧

本文用线性回归方法,分两个时段分析了中国沿岸２５个验潮站相对海平面的年变化速度,计算了相应时段的平均海面,结果表明,中国沿岸现代相对海平面上升加剧。另外,本文还对海平面变化原因进行了讨论。     

江苏近岸海域水位变化特征分析

基于江苏沿海连云港、吕四两个测点的验潮站多年的观测资料以及AVISO卫星高度计资料,利用统计分析方法和潮汐调和分析方法研究江苏沿海地区的海洋水位变化特征。结果表明:江苏沿海海平面和潮差均呈上升趋势,海平面上升速度达3.35 mm/a,高于全球和区域海平面的上升速度;对采样间隔为1 h的潮位连续观测数据作调和分析,各验潮站主要半日分潮的振幅呈上升趋势,全日分潮的振幅呈下降趋势,S_a分潮的周期性变化与El Nino现象有关。     

Effect of Sea Level Variation on Tidal Characteristic Values for the East China Sea

1 .IntroductionTheglobalairtemperatureroseabout 0 .5～ 0 .6°Coverthepast 2 0thcentury ,andtheglobalmeansealevelincreasedbyabout2 0cmduringtheperiod .Theregionalmeansealevelriseswiththerisingglobalmeansealevel.Zuoetal.( 1 997)indicatedthatthemeanrisingrateofabsolutemeansealevelalongtheChinacoastontheassumptionofunifiedisostaticdatumis 2mm a .Woodworth( 1 999)analyzedsealevelspanning 1 76 8tothepresentinLiverpool,andobtainedaseculartrendforheperiodupto 1 880of0 .39± 0 .1 7mm a ,andatrendfort…     

南海北部沿岸冬季水位亚潮波动特征研究

用时间序列分析方法研究了南海北部水位亚潮波动的基本特征。结果表明南海北部冬季水位亚潮波动能量以福建南部沿岸最强,广东沿岸仅为台湾海峡南部的一半左右,但二者具有相似的谱特征。各站的功率谱峰均出现在3.2,6.4,3.6和2.3d频带。其中3.2和6.4d波动能量最强。此外,在珠江口附近还有10.7d的较弱谱峰。与东海沿岸冬季情况类似,南海北部沿岸水位波动有很高的空间相关性,说明冬季我国东南沿海的亚潮波动受某一共同机制的控制。分析还表明水位波动一致地从东北向西南传播,但在不同岸段传播特征有相当差异。     

浙江沿岸海平面变化的初步研究

本文对浙江沿岸海平面变化研究中的若干问题进行了分析和讨论,结果表明:浙江沿岸海面形状较平坦。海平面变化呈上升趋势,在过去的30～33年间,用长涂、镇海和坎门站长期潮位资料分析,海平面年上升速率为2.3mm/a。预测今后几十年间浙江沿岸海平面处在一个上升时期。     

中国沿岸现代海平面变化及未来趋势分析

本文用线性回归分析方法，分１９８５年以前和１９９２年以前两个时段，对我国沿岸２５个验潮站近百年来的海平面资料进行了系统分析，计算了两个时段相对海平面变化的年速率和平均海面高度，论述了海平面变化的主要控制因素，并对未来海平面变化趋势进行了预测。计算结果表明，近百年来我国沿岸相对海平面在总体上不但持续上升，而且近年来上升速率普遍加快；根据海平面变化的主要控制因素变化趋向，预计到下世纪中叶前后，全球性海平面大幅度上升的可能性不大，我国沿岸区域性海乎面平均上升幅度不超过１５ｃｍ，不同岸段因地壳升降差异性大而有较大差别。     

Relative Sea Level Changes in Maldives and Vulnerability of Land Due to Abnormal Coastal Inundation

Oceanic Islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans have extremely small land areas, usually less than 500 km2, with maximum height about 4 m above sea level. The Republic of Maldives is an independent island nation in the Indian Ocean south of Sri Lanka which stretches vertically in the Indian Ocean from 07° 06'N - 0° 42'S. The land area of this island country is about 300 km2, and none of Maldives' 1190 islands has an elevation more than 3 m above sea level. In fact the Maldives has the distinction of being the flattest country on earth, making it extremely vulnerable to the effects of global warming. Of the south Asian countries, the Maldives is the most vulnerable nation, facing severe consequences as a result of global warming and sea level rise (SLR). Because of their obvious vulnerability to SLR, the Government of Maldives is very much concerned about climate change. As global warming and the related SLR is an important integrated environmental issue, the need of the hour is to monitor and assess these changes. The present article deals mainly with the analysis of the tidal and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data observed at Male and Gan stations along the Maldives coast in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The objective of the analysis is to study the trends of these parameters. Trend analysis is also performed on the corresponding air temperature data of both stations. The results show that Maldives coastal sea level is rising in the same way (rising trend) as the global sea level. The mean tidal level at Male has shown an increasing trend of about 4.1 mm/year.Similarly at Gan, near the equator,it has registered a positive trend of about 3.9 mm/year.Sea level variations are the manifestations of various changes that are taking place in the Ocean-Atmosphere system. Therefore, the variations in SST and air temperature are intimately linked to sea level rise. It is found that SST and air temperature have also registered an increasing trend at both stations. The evidence of rising trends suggest that careful future monitoring of these parameters is very much required. Tropical cyclones normally do not affect the Maldives coast. However, due to its isolated location, the long fetches in association with swells generated by storms, that originated in the far south have resulted in flooding. Thus the rising rate of sea level with high waves and flat topography have increased the risk of flooding and increased the rate of erosion and alteration of beaches.     

Spatial Variation of Sea Level Trend Along the Bangladesh Coast

The Bangladesh coast is threatened by rising sea level due to various factors. The results based on the analysis of past 22 years of tidal data of the Bangladesh coast reveal that the annual mean tidal level in the eastern Bangladesh coast is rising at an alarmingly high rate of 7.8 mm/year, which is almost twice the observed rate in the western region. This type of sea level trend seems to be the result of changing local conditions like increased precipitation and land subsidence during the recent decades. It seems that the higher rate of land subsidence in the eastern Bangladesh coast is the main causative factor for the steeper sea level trends there. The differential sea level trends show that the subsidence component in the sea level rise may be as high as 4 mm/year in the eastern Bangladesh coast. However, this needs to be verified with actual geological observations.     

Spatial Variation of Sea Level Trend Along the Bangladesh Coast

The Bangladesh coast is threatened by rising sea level due to various factors. The results based on the analysis of past 22 years of tidal data of the Bangladesh coast reveal that the annual mean tidal level in the eastern Bangladesh coast is rising at an alarmingly high rate of 7.8 mm/year, which is almost twice the observed rate in the western region. This type of sea level trend seems to be the result of changing local conditions like increased precipitation and land subsidence during the recent decades. It seems that the higher rate of land subsidence in the eastern Bangladesh coast is the main causative factor for the steeper sea level trends there. The differential sea level trends show that the subsidence component in the sea level rise may be as high as 4 mm/year in the eastern Bangladesh coast. However, this needs to be verified with actual geological observations.     

环日本岛沿岸海平面长期变化特征与机制的研究

利用环日本岛沿岸38个验潮站连续36 a的实测水位资料,分析了环日本岛沿岸平均海平面的长期变化特征,结果表明平均海平面的异常变化在1984年前后发生较大转折,近20多年来主要呈现持续上升趋势,部分站位在1997年前后也有较明显的下降趋势,表明海平面的长期变化中存在较长周期的波动情况。通过对所有验潮站的日平均海平面序列进行平均,发现与西北太平洋SST异常变化呈正相关,相关系数为0.908;与太平洋年代际变化(PDO)指数呈负相关,相关系数为-0.6;与西北太平洋风旋度场的异常变化呈正相关,相关系数为0.402。结果表明环日本岛沿岸平均海平面的长期变化受到海水热膨胀效应、太平洋年代际变化以及风应力引起的海水堆积和流失等因素的影响。同时,发现从2000年开始西北太平洋的SST开始下降,而平均海平面仍然在持续上升,其上升原因还需作进一步研究与探讨。     

海平面上升对中国沿海地区影响初析

近五十年来中国沿岸海平面变化总的呈上升趋势，年变率平均为１．４ｍｍ／ａ，中国沿岸地形复杂，未来海平面上升可能影响的主要脆弱区为黄河、长江和珠江三大三角洲和滨海平原，其可能受害区域估计达３５０００ｋｍ＾２。影响中国沿岸相对海平面上升的主要因素有：近代地壳垂直运动和地面沉降，台风和风暴潮，海岸侵蚀和海咸水入侵等。     

Relative Sea Level Changes in Maldives and Vulnerability of Land Due to Abnormal Coastal Inundation

Oceanic Islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans have extremely small land areas, usually less than 500 km2, with maximum height about 4 m above sea level. The Republic of Maldives is an independent island nation in the Indian Ocean south of Sri Lanka which stretches vertically in the Indian Ocean from 07° 06'N - 0° 42'S. The land area of this island country is about 300 km2, and none of Maldives' 1190 islands has an elevation more than 3 m above sea level. In fact the Maldives has the distinction of being the flattest country on earth, making it extremely vulnerable to the effects of global warming. Of the south Asian countries, the Maldives is the most vulnerable nation, facing severe consequences as a result of global warming and sea level rise (SLR). Because of their obvious vulnerability to SLR, the Government of Maldives is very much concerned about climate change. As global warming and the related SLR is an important integrated environmental issue, the need of the hour is to monitor and assess these changes. The present article deals mainly with the analysis of the tidal and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data observed at Male and Gan stations along the Maldives coast in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The objective of the analysis is to study the trends of these parameters. Trend analysis is also performed on the corresponding air temperature data of both stations. The results show that Maldives coastal sea level is rising in the same way (rising trend) as the global sea level. The mean tidal level at Male has shown an increasing trend of about 4.1 mm/year.Similarly at Gan, near the equator,it has registered a positive trend of about 3.9 mm/year.Sea level variations are the manifestations of various changes that are taking place in the Ocean-Atmosphere system. Therefore, the variations in SST and air temperature are intimately linked to sea level rise. It is found that SST and air temperature have also registered an increasing trend at both stations. The evidence of rising trends suggest that careful future monitoring of these parameters is very much required. Tropical cyclones normally do not affect the Maldives coast. However, due to its isolated location, the long fetches in association with swells generated by storms, that originated in the far south have resulted in flooding. Thus the rising rate of sea level with high waves and flat topography have increased the risk of flooding and increased the rate of erosion and alteration of beaches.     

Sea level variations along the south coast of Japan and the large meander in the Kuroshio

Sea level variations from 1974 through 1976 at 9 stations on the south coast of Japan (from west to east, Aburatsu, Tosa-shimizu, Muroto-misaki, Kushimoto, Uragami, Owase, Toba, Maisaka and Omaezaki) were analysed in relation to the large meander in the Kuroshio. From May to July in 1975, a small maximum in sea level variation was observed at every station west of Cape Shionomisaki from Aburatsu to Kushimoto. It propagated eastward along with the eastward propagation of a small meander in the Kuroshio until it reached Kushimoto, when the sea levels at Uragami and Owase started to rise sharply. This remarkable rise appeared at all stations in August when a large meander in the Kuroshio was established. The mean sea level at the stations east of Cape Shionomisaki from Uragami to Omaezaki rose by about 10 cm. The difference in sea level variations between the regions east and west of Cape Shionomisaki, which had been present before the rise, disappeared. A similar characteristic of sea level variation was also found in the generation stage of the large meander in 1959. The sea level variations along the south coast of Japan indicate that, prior to the generation of the large meander, the small meander in the Kuroshio was generated southeast of Kyushu and propagated eastward and that, just when this meander reached off Cape Shionomisaki, a large scale oceanic event covering over the whole region of the south coast of Japan occurred. This large scale event seems to be one of the necessary conditions for the generation of the large meander in the Kuroshio off Enshû-nada.