Modeling of circulation and salinity in Hooghly estuary

The circulation and salinity distribution in the Hooghly Estuary have been studied by developing a two‐dimensional depth‐averaged numerical model for the lower estuary, where the flow is vertically well mixed. This has been coupled with a one‐dimensional model for the upper estuary, where the flow is assumed to be unidirectional and well mixed over the depth and breadth. The Hooghly River receives high freshwater discharge during the monsoon season (June to September), which has significant effect on the salinity distribution in the estuary. The model‐simulated currents, elevations, and salinities are in good agreement with observations during the dry season. However, during the wet season the computed salinities seem to deviate slightly from the observed values.     

海平面上升对海岸潮差响应的理论解析

应用海湾和半封闭矩形海域改进的Taylor问题的解研究海平面上升对M2分潮旋转潮波系统及沿岸潮差的变化.将南黄海概化为一等深矩形海域,初步研究在海平面上升3 m和5 m条件下该海域旋转潮波系统的演化趋势,继而分析沿岸潮差变化特征.初步分析研究表明:随着海平面上升,该海域M2分潮的无潮点有向东南方向偏移的趋势,受此影响,沿岸潮差呈现不同的变化特征,靠近无潮点的左侧及湾顶海岸变化明显,而远离无潮点的右侧及湾顶海岸则变化不大.     

孟加拉湾海表盐度变化特征的卫星遥感应用研究

本文利用2011年8月至2014年3月Aquarius卫星盐度产品结合Argo等实测盐度资料,探讨了孟加拉湾海表盐度的季节及年际变化特征。结果显示,Aquarius与Argo盐度呈显著线性正相关,总体较Argo盐度值低,偏差为-0.13,其中在孟加拉湾北部海域负偏差值比南部海域更大,分别为-0.28和-0.10。Aquarius卫星与Argo浮标在表层盐度观测深度上的差别是造成此系统偏差的主因。Aquarius盐度资料清晰显示了孟加拉湾海表盐度具有明显的季节变化特征,包括阿拉伯海高盐水的入侵引起湾南部海域盐度的变化以及湾北部淡水羽分布范围的季节性迁移等主要特征。此外,分析还揭示了2011(2012)年春季整个湾内出现异常高盐(低盐)现象。研究表明,2010(2011)年湾北部夏季降雨减少(增加)导致该海域海水盐度偏高(偏低),并通过表层环流向南输运引起次年春季湾内表层盐度出现异常高盐(低盐)现象,春季风应力旋度正(负)距平通过影响盐度垂直混合过程对同期表层盐度异常高盐(低盐)变化也有影响。     

海平面上升情景下辽东湾海岸侵蚀及影响评估

基于海洋站潮位观测和中国沿海海平面变化影响调查等数据,分析了辽东湾沿岸海平面变化及海岸侵蚀状况,并定量评估了未来海平面上升情景下,辽东湾两岸典型沙质海岸侵蚀影响和沙滩养护投入。分析预测和评估结果表明:1980-2017年,辽东湾沿海海平面上升速率为3.0 mm/a,其中辽东湾东岸沿海海平面上升速率明显高于西岸。2009-2017年,辽宁营口白沙湾、绥中网户、绥中南山港和绥中团山气象观测场岸段后退和下蚀较为严重,部分岸段滩肩蚀退达2～3 m/a。预计2100年,辽东湾沿海海平面上升幅度在20～48 cm之间,由海平面上升引发的辽东湾海岸侵蚀土地损失为23.1 km2,土地经济损失为1410万元。为减缓海岸侵蚀,旅游沙滩和一般沙滩养护总投入分别为11亿元和46亿元,全岸段养护成本较高,应选取旅游沙滩等重点岸段进行养护。     

珠江河口盐度和输运过程对未来海平面上升的响应

研究海平面上升对河口的影响情况有助于了解输运过程的变化,基于21世纪海平面上升预测研究(陈长霖,2012;张吉,2014),本文选取珠江河口这一径优型与潮优型并存的河口为研究区域,利用数值模拟的方法,研究其在未来海平面上升后可能出现的响应。结果表明,河口的平均盐度、咸潮上溯距离和层化强度都将随着海平面的上升而增加,这些因素的变化有着明显的季节性。伶仃洋平均盐度在4月和10月增加更多;伶仃洋枯水期咸潮上溯距离的增量大于丰水期,磨刀门则相反;伶仃洋丰水期层化强度及其增量都要大于枯水期。海平面上升后的输运过程响应结果显示:(1) 垂向输运时间将增加,虽然海平面上升带来的潮差潮流的增强将加强垂向混合,但是层化的加强会削弱垂向交换。垂向输运时间的增加是由于层化的加强,层化加强抑制了潮汐变化带来的影响,表层水更难交换到底层; (2) 南北向河口环流将加强,表层余流向海加强,底层余流向陆加强,南北向余流整体向海减小。造成这些现象的主要原因是海平面上升后水深增加带来的河道比降的减小和压力梯度力的改变。     

基于Aquarius 卫星数据的孟加拉湾海表盐度分析

海洋表面盐度(Sea Surface Salinity,SSS)是海洋的重要物理和化学参量,SSS的时空分布与全球大洋环流和水汽循环密切相关。本文基于美国国家航空航天局(NASA)发射的Aquarius卫星3 a的SSS遥感数据,给出了孟加拉湾及其附近海域海表盐度的空间分布特征,并重点分析了影响孟加拉湾海表盐度变化的可能因素。研究结果从一个侧面说明了利用Aquarius卫星遥感观测海洋大尺度盐度变化的可行性。     

孟加拉湾上层环流研究综述

综述了孟加拉湾上层环流研究的主要成果并指出,研究海区环流与季风转换不完全同步。在西南季风期间,南、北海区各有一气旋式环流;在秋季季风过渡期间,出现海湾尺度的气旋式环流;在东北季风期间,气旋式环流减弱北移,南部则为一反气旋式环流控制;春季与秋季的情形相反,整个湾出现一海湾尺度的反气旋式环流。研究海区环流的变异主要受季风、赤道远地作用和浮力通量等复杂外源作用的影响。东印度沿岸流的季节变化与季风转换也不同步,局地风、内部Ekman抽吸、远地沿岸风及赤道远地作用的影响对沿岸流周年变化有重要作用。孟加拉湾上层环流年际变化显著,此年际变化主要受赤道风场的影响。     

基于EOF法的长江口高潮位时空变化特征研究——长时间序列的高潮位EOF分析

根据长江口6个主要潮位站1993-2008年潮位资料,通过经验正交函数分析法(EOF法)分析了长时间序列和三峡工程前后月平均高潮位变化规律以及2000年的日高潮位变化规律,并探究其影响因素。结果表明:EOF分析前三个主成分贡献率为98.19%,可以反映潮位变化的主要过程。EOF1的影响因子是径流量,在空间上均为正值,呈上游至下游递减趋势,时间系数呈季节性变化;EOF2的影响因子是月平均海平面变化,在空间上有明显的分布差异,时间系数总体有上升趋势。三峡工程前后影响因子的作用有一定变化,径流量的影响增强,海平面减小。徐六泾以上河段的潮位站受径流丰枯影响,徐六泾以下高潮位受平均海平面控制更大。     

Effect of River Discharge on Bay of Bengal Circulation

The seasonal circulation and mixed layer depths in Bay of Bengal is modeled using the three-dimensional Princeton Ocean Model (POM). Along the coastal boundaries a higher resolution is accomplished using the curvilinear orthogonal grid. Model uses a free-surface and terrain following sigma coordinates. The initial climatological salinity and temperature fields for the model are derived from the World Ocean Atlas-2001(WOA01). The Model is forced with wind stress derived from COADS wind climatology. Bilinear interpolation is used to obtain the initial fields and wind stress to the required model specification. Using the seasonal fields and wind stress the model is integrated for simulating Bay of Bengal circulation. The numerical simulations on climatological scale for monsoon months were conducted to study the evolution of dynamics. The simulations bring out not only the typical characteristic features of fresh water plume along the coast but also intensification of the flow over the monsoon period. The increase in the fresh water flow found to affect only the western parts of the BoB. The opposing currents due to monsoon winds and southward flowing fresh water discharge (FWD) were also delineated. The model results show that the wind stress induced turbulence process is subdued in the presence of strong vertical salinity stratification due to the influence of FWD. The simulated mixed layer depths are in agreement with the reported analytical energy required for mixing values.     

日本广岛湾非潮汐的水位变化

Nontidal sea level changes generated in Hiroshima Bay of the Seto-Inland Sea in Japan are studied over various time scales, from the sub-tidal （2 d to 1 month） to inter-annual scales （〉2 years）. The total sea level variation produces a standard deviation （STD） of 12.5 cm. The inter-annual component of the sea level variation in Hiroshima Bay oscillates with a STD of 3.4 cm, forming a long-term trend of 4.9 mm/a. The STD of the sea level variation is 9.8 cm for the seasonal component （8 months to 2 years） and 4.7 cm for the intra-seasonal one （1 month to 8 months）. Significant sea level variations with a STD of 4.2 cm also occur in the sub-tidal range. Special attention is paid to the sub-tidal sea level changes. It is found that the upwelling and associated transient sea level changes generated along the north coast of Hiroshima Bay （opened southward） by the strong northerly wind, play a significant role in sub-tidal sea level changes. The transient sea level changes are over 10 cm in most cases when caused by typhoons that pass through the Pacific Ocean offthe Kii Peninsula, located at about 400 km east of Hiroshima Bay. Reasonable sea level changes are evaluated by the balance of pressure forces at the onshore and offshore boundary of the study domain.     

The tidal regime of Shark Bay, Western Australia

A non-linear hydrodynamic model is used to describe the tidal dynamics of Shark Bay, Western Australia. The model is forced by tidal elevations generated by M₂, S₂, K₁ and O₁ constituent data at the open boundaries. The absence of suitable boundary data required a ‘calibration’ of the boundary condition against the known constituent data from within the model domain. The model provides a good match to the available field data, and allows the surface-level and current response to be resolved over the entire domain. Due to a near quarter-wave resonance of the semi-diurnal tide along the eastern Hopeless Reach, which increases the semi-diurnal tide by a factor of 2, the tidal characteristics on each of the Reaches are different: on the eastern Hopeless Reach the tides are mainly semi-diurnal while on the western Freycinet Reach the tides are mainly diurnal. The tidal range is also higher along Hopeless Reach. Tidal harmonics, generated by non-linearity, are important in the shallow regions. The tidal wave is shown to propagate as a progressive wave into the Bay. Substantial phase-lag, attenuation and dissipation occur over the Faure Sill, a major shallow region of the eastern reach of the Bay. Non-linear generation of the M₄ and MS₄ tides is also significant in this region. Depth-averaged residual currents are presented, which show a tidally generated circulation that is enhanced in regions of complex topography. Estimates of tidal dissipation indicate that although the total dissipation is small on a global scale, the areal average is comparable with the Gulf of Carpentaria and approximately one-quarter of the value estimated for the Patagonian Shelf.     

海平面上升、强台风和风暴潮对厦门海域极值水位的影响及危险性预估

气候变化背景下海平面上升、强台风和风暴潮对我国东南沿海地区的洪涝灾害影响日益严重,为应对气候变化的影响,本文以位于我国东南沿海的厦门地区为例,应用多种海洋大气观测资料和数理统计及模拟方法,分析了历史上9914号和1614号两次台风对厦门海域极端海面高度(极值水位)的影响,预估了未来海平面上升情景下厦门海域极值水位的变化及其危险性。结果表明：(1) 9914号台风期间,天文大潮、风暴增水和强降水的同时出现造成了厦门沿海地区超警戒极值水位(732 cm)的出现;(2) 风(向岸强风)、雨(强降水)、浪(巨浪)、潮(高潮位)、流(急流)等多致灾因子的共同作用是厦门沿海地区发生严重灾情的重要原因;(3) 在温室气体中等和高排放(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)情景下,到2050年(2100年),当前百年一遇的极值水位将分别变为30年(2年)一遇(RCP4.5)和25年(低于1年)一遇(RCP8.5)的频繁极端事件。这表明未来厦门沿海极值水位的危险性将显著上升,应采取充分的适应措施降低洪涝灾害风险。     

考虑海平面上升影响的极值水位计算

本研究基于非平稳序列极值理论,定量分析极端水位事件年超越概率受海平面上升的影响;以工程设计使用年限内极端水位发生概率作为控制条件,构建考虑海平面上升的极值水位计算方法;结合平均海平面的长期变化过程,推算海平面上升下的极值水位。基于全球10个验潮站历史水位观测资料,验证历史平均海平面长期变化与高、低水位耿贝尔分布位置参数变化的一致性以及构建方法的合理性。结合政府间气候变化专门委员会对海平面上升的预测,推算和对比分析不同海平面上升情景下的极值水位,并评估相应极值水位在当前极值分布中的重现期。     

Role of Fresh Water Discharge from Rivers on Oceanic Features in the Northwestern Bay of Bengal

The circulation of northwestern Bay of Bengal is modeled using a three-dimensional Princeton Ocean Model (POM). Orthogonal curvilinear grid is used to get a higher resolution along the coastal boundaries. Numerical simulations on climatological scale for premonsoon were compared with those with and without fresh water during monsoon season.

The simulations for monsoon season without freshwater discharge at head Bay show intensification of the premonsoon features. The presence of lower SSTs and higher sea surface salinities as compared to premonsoon season along the coast substantiate this observation. The pole-ward moving East Indian Coastal Current (EICC) extends along-shore up to 20.5°N. Simulations with freshwater discharge for Monsoon season indicate that freshwater plume constitutes an equator-ward moving EICC branch opposing the pole-ward moving branch. The freshwater discharge modifies sea surface elevations along the northwestern coastal Bay of Bengal, in turn suppressing the coastal upwelling. Absence of freshwater plume imparts a significant change in the oceanic features in north western parts of Bay of Bengal.     

泉州湾内洛阳江口涨落潮流不对称性的数值研究

应用1个改进的含有动边界技术的河口海岸动力模型模拟了泉州湾洛阳江口的潮汐潮流.结果表明M2分潮在洛阳江口的主河道占据主导地位,但是随着潮波向浅滩的传播,其能量通过海底摩擦作用或非线性耗散作用逐渐转移至浅水潮,其中尤以M4分潮的增长最为显著.浅水分潮的增长又会引起天文分潮涨、落潮流的不对称性.进一步检验洛阳江口的潮流历时（月平均的涨、落潮流历时分别为6 h 1 min 30 s和6 h 19 min 58 s）和潮汐余流特征发现：该水域以涨潮流为主,由此产生的涨、落潮流的不对称可能有利于潮滩的进一步扩展.     

北黎湾及邻近海域潮流数值计算

建立北黎湾及邻近海域二维潮流数值模型,重现该海域潮波及潮流的分布规律,计算得到m1分潮和M2分潮的同潮时线与等振幅线、潮流椭圆,m1与M2合成的潮致欧拉余流、最大潮流和不同时刻潮流场分布。     

Risk assessment and zoning of sea level rise in Shandong Province

Sea level rise is a slow-onset disaster.We collected information about the natural and ecological environments,tides and sea levels,and socio-economic aspects to investigate the distribution and zoning of the risks from sea level rise across Shandong Province.The trends in sea level in different counties of Shandong Province were predicted using moving averages and a random dynamic analysis forecasting model,and the model outputs and socio-economic indicators were combined to assess the risks.The results show that the risks of sea level rise along the western coast of Bohai Bay and Laizhou Bay in Shandong Province were sufficiently large to warrant attention.     

基于SLAMM模型的海平面上升对广西沿海红树林影响研究

本文基于SLAMM模型分析了不同情景下海平面上升对广西沿海红树林分布面积的影响及其空间差异,通过对比实验定量分析了潮差和沉积速率的作用。结果显示,与基准年2007年相比,2100年广西红树林面积在当前海平面上升速率、典型浓度路径RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下分别减少0.57%、4.99%、7.99%和17.39%,珍珠港、茅尾海、丹兜海和英罗港受影响程度较大。当地潮差与红树林面积减少率呈负相关关系。需维持红树林生长区域的沉积速率以应对未来的海平面加速上升。     

湄洲湾潮流特性的数值研究

本文运用一个含动边界的二维河口海岸动力模型模拟了湄洲湾潮汐潮流的基本特征,模拟结果与实测数据吻合较好．在此基础上估算了湄洲湾大、小潮过程的纳潮量,并根据湾内保守示踪物的质量（浓度）随涨、落潮流周期性的变化,进一步估算了湄洲湾的水交换周期,其半交换和80％的交换周期分别为5d和15d．同时可以看出,主航道深水区的水交换特性明显强于湾顶浅水区．     

The impact of coastal reclamation on tidal and storm surge level in Sanmen Bay,China

In recent years,fast economic development demands for more land use and thus many reclamation projects are initiated around the Sanmen Bay,Zhejiang,SE China in the East China Sea,for which tidal and storm surge levels are reassessed.A two-dimensional numerical model based on an advanced circulation model(ADCIRC)was applied to evaluate the impact of reclamation projects on tidal and storm surge levels in the bay.The results show that the shoreline relocation and topographic change had opposite effects on tidal heights.Shoreline relocation decreased the tidal amplitude,while siltation caused topographic change and increased the amplitude.Such variations of the amplitude were significant in the top areas of Sanmen Bay.Three types of typhoon paths were selected for a case study to investigate the impacts of shoreline relocation and topographic change on storm surge level.Results show that the maximum increase in storm surge level due to shoreline relocation was less than 0.06 m.The rise of peak surge level due to the change of topography was significant and the peak surge level rose when siltation increased.The maximum surge level rise occurred in the path of northwest landing typhoons,which exceeded 0.24 m at the top of the bay.The rise in peak surge level can potentially lead to severe damages and losses in Sanmen Bay and more attention needs to be paid to this problem of shoreline change in the future.