Stochastic Modeling of Short Term Variations of Sea Level in Eastern Canada

Hourly sea level records from three stations in eastern Canada (Québec-Lauzon, Harrington-Harbour and Halifax) are analyzed both in frequency domain from 1970 to 1979 and in time domain during 1973. At the three stations, the deterministic model explains 90 to 96% of the total variability of sea level. The semidiurnal and diurnal tides contribute largely to its variations. The residual series, less than 10% of the initial variations of sea level, contain irregular values including extreme values of seiches and storm surges. Such random variations are analyzed and modeled following the method described by Box and Jenkins (1976). The long period variations (2 to 30 days) can be attributed to meteorological forcing (atmospheric pressure and winds). The short period variations (some hours to one day) can be attributed to longitudinal seiches, semidiurnal and diurnal atmospheric tides, and inertial oscillations. The water discharge from the St. Lawrence River contributes 29% of the monthly residual sea level at Qué     

Interannual variability and seasonal contribution of thermal expansion to sea level in the Persian Gulf

In an attempt to understand the causes of the sea-level seasonal cycle in the Persian Gulf, we investigated the relationships of sea-level data from 11 stations with atmospheric pressure and thermosteric level. Sea level is significantly correlated among all stations. The mean trend in sea level for the Persian Gulf is about 2.34 mm/year. The thermosteric sea-level variability is estimated from temperature profiles at one-degree grid points. Contour maps of thermosteric level show that the height due to thermal expansion is high in summer and autumn, and low during winter and spring. The monthly mean thermostric height ranges from +2.2 cm in July to −2.1 cm in February. The major change in sea level due to the thermosteric level seems to be associated with the large change of the thermohaline circulation in the Persian Gulf. The maximum expansion occurs in summer, and the maximum contraction occurs in winter.Results of the regression analysis demonstrate that from 62% to 90.2% of the variance in the seasonal cycle is due to atmospheric pressure. The inclusion of the thermosteric sea level as a secondary forcing in the regression model improves the variance explained to 78.1–90.7%. The remaining change should be due to the halosteric effect and upwelling. Tide-gauge stations located at the Gulf's head show high correlation with Ekman vertical velocity. There are two distinct tide gauge stations in the Persian Gulf. One is found in the first cyclonic gyre and the other in the second gyre. The inclusion of Ekman upwelling to the model, improves significantly the variations explained as well, from 82.3% to 91.9%.     

A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF THE VARIATION OF MONTHLY MEAN SEA LEVEL OF THE SEAS NEAR CHINA AND ITS CAUSES

This paper deals with the variations of the monthly mean sea level of the seas near China. The distribution charts of mean, sea level in winter and in summer are given. The monthly mean sea level variations are mainly caused by monsoon, sea currents and the fluctuation of atmosphen'c pressure. The annual range of monthly mean sea level is 50 -70 cm in the northern part of the seas near China, and 20-40 cm in the southern part. The variation period of the monthly mean sea level of the seas near China is principally annual one.     

Response of the low-frequency fluctuations of sea level to atmospheric forcing along the coasts of the Huanghai Sea and the East China Sea

In this paper, the low-frequency fluctuations of sea level and their relationship to atmospheric forcing along the coasts of the Huanghai Sea and the East China Sea are studied. Spectrum analyses are made for the time series of daily mean sea level, atmospheric pressure and wind stress at seven coastal stations. It is found that at all the stations, the main part of the energy of the sea level fluctuations, within the (2-60)-day period, is concentrated on the (12-60)-day period band and that an obvious spectral peak appears at the 3-day period. Along the coast of the Huanghai Sea, variations in the sea level are greater in winter than in summer. In winter, along the coasts of the Huanghai Sea and the East China Sea there is a kind of sea level fluctuations propagating southwards. Among the many factors causing sea level variation, the most obvious one is atmospheric pressure, followed next by the alongshore wind stress.     

A study of resonant oscillations in the Split harbour (Adriatic Sea)

The study examines the occurrence of Proudman resonance in front of the Split harbour (Adriatic Sea). The dataset comprises air and sea pressure (sea level) data collected at the harbour entrance during August to October 2000 and is characterized by rather strong synoptic disturbances that took place over the harbour. The analyses encompass empirical tools, such as time-series analysis, high- and band-pass filtering, spectral and wavelet analyses, while the theoretical approach includes the conceptual model of the resonance. Resonance appears in front of the harbour and then propagates inward, covering periods between 7.7 and 28.5 min as a result of complex atmospheric gravity wave structure. Gain between sea level and air pressure equals 0.05–0.40 dbar/hPa (5–40 cm/hPa).     

太平洋海域海平面变化的灰色系统分析

应用灰色系统理论，对太平洋海域４８个长期验潮站的月均海平面分别建立了ＧＭ（１，１）模型。ＧＭ（１，１）模型能较好地反映太平洋海域的海平面变化的趋势，它除了能给出连续的海平面变化速率外，同时能方便地给出海平面变化的加速率。模拟结果表明，在太平洋地壳均衡假设下，太平洋海域的月均海平面以平均速率０．１７ｃｍ／ａ上升。在太平洋海域所取的４８个长期验潮站中，有４０个站在加速上升，全部站的平均加速度为０．０００２９ｃｍ／ａ２。且加速率逐渐增大。当然这些加速率都很小，但作为一种普遍性的趋势，这已足以说明：太平洋海域的海平面在加速上升     

Interannual Sea Level Variations and Annual Tides in the Northwestern Pacific

Specific properties of the interannual sea level variations and annual tides in the Northwestern Pacific were studied. Several tide stations were monitored. The monthly mean sea level for the year of 1995 was analyzed at each tide station. A seismic event in 1995, some tectonic activity around the subject area, and the Kuroshio (the oceanic western boundary current) may possibly contaminate results which would have occurred from the astronomical annual tide alone.     

Coastal sea level variability in the Bohai Bay: influence of atmospheric forcing and prediction

The sea level variabilities, especially the atmosphere-driven sea level variabilities, which are diff erent in studies on diverse areas and timescales, need to be further documented in the Bohai Bay. Coastal sea level data and coincident meteorological data collected hourly at two observation stations (E1 and E2) in the Bohai Bay, which is a typical semi-enclosed coastal sea in China, are analyzed for the period from 19 August 2014 to 18 November 2014. The sub-sampled low-pass (<0.8 cpd) sea levels (SLSLs) at E1 and E2 are almost the same as each other, while the winds are not. On the whole, SLSLs at E1 and E2 are dominantly influenced by the across-shore wind;in detail, the dominant wind orientation at E1 is 65° measured clockwise from north, and SLSL at E2 is significantly influenced by the sub-sampled wind (SW) at 55°. Regression of SLSL onto the corresponding SW in dominant orientation and the atmospheric pressure is used to predict SLSL, which make the frequency of occurrences when the predicted total sea level is within 0.15 m from the observed values increase to 66.03% and 58.08% at E1 and E2 from original 36.71% and 34.80% without using it, respectively. The results indicate that for the prediction of the total sea level variability in the coastal shallow waters, the SLSL influenced by the atmospheric forcing, including local wind and atmospheric pressure, can be predicted using the multivariable linear regression model.     

Period components in the monthly mean sea level variations in the Pacific Ocean

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Oceanic eddy-driven atmospheric secondary circulation in the winter Kuroshio Extension region

In the winter Kuroshio Extension region, the atmospheric response to oceanic eddies is studied using reanalysis and satellite data. The detected eddies in this region are mostly under the force of northwesterly wind, with the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly located within the eddy. By examining the patterns of surface wind divergence, three types of atmospheric response are identified. The first type, which occupies 60%, is characterized by significant sea surface wind convergence and divergence at the edge and a vertical secondary circulation (SC) aloft, supporting the “vertical momentum mixing mechanism”. The SCs on anticyclonic eddies (AEs) can reach up to 300 hPa, but those on cyclonic eddies (CEs) are limited to 700 hPa. This can be explained by analyzing vertical eddy heat transport: When northwesterly wind passes the warmer center of an AE, it is from the cold to warm sea surface, resulting in stronger evaporation and convection, triggering stronger upward velocity and moist static heat flux. For the cases of CEs, the wind blows from warm to cold, which means less instability and less evaporation, resulting in weaker SCs. The second type, which occupies 10%, is characterized by divergence and a sea level pressure anomaly in the center, supported by the “pressure adjustment mechanism”. The other 30% are mostly weak eddies, and the atmospheric variation aloft is unrelated to the SST anomaly. Our work provides evidence for the different atmospheric responses over oceanic eddies and explains why SCs over AEs are much stronger than those over CEs by vertical heat flux analysis.     

厄尔尼诺事件延长原因的初步分析

利用我国及美国国家气象局提供的热带太平洋月平均海温、水位、地球向外长波辐射和850hPa纬向风资料,对1980年以来的三次厄尔尼诺(El Ni(?)o)事件延长原因及其特征作一分析和探讨。文章指出,El Ni(?)o事件延长的原因主要是:在El Ni(?)o事件发生后,热带太平洋大气环流半年左右的韵律活动及在赤道南、北两侧明显的大气振荡加强,从而使大气的El Ni(?)o异常过程间隔半年相继发生。     

Comparison of Sea Surface Heights Derived from Satellite Altimetry and from Ocean Bottom Pressure Gauges: The SW Pacific MOTEVAS Project

A bottom pressure gauge (BPG) was installed in proximity (3.7 km at closest approach) of Jason-1 and formerly TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) ground track No. 238 at the Wusi site, located ∼ 10 km offshore off the west coast of Santo Island, Vanuatu, Southwest (SW) Pacific. Sea level variations are inferred from the bottom pressure, seawater temperature, and salinity, corrected for the measured surface atmospheric pressure. The expansion of the water column (steric increase in sea surface height, SSH) due to temperature and salinity changes is approximated by the equation of state. We compare time series of SSH derived from T/P Side B altimeter Geophysical Data Records (GDR) and Jason-1 Interim Geophysical Data Records (IGDR), with the gauge-inferred sea level variations. Since altimeter SSH is a geocentric measurement, whereas the gauge-inferred observation is a relative sea level measurement, SSH comparison is conducted with the means of both series removed in this study. In addition, high-rate (1-Hz) bottom pressure implied wave heights (H_1/3) are compared with the significant wave height (SWH) measured by Jason-1. Noticeable discrepancy is found in this comparison for high waves, however the differences do not contribute significantly to the difference in sea level variations observed between the altimeter and the pressure gauge. In situ atmospheric pressure measurements are also used to verify the inverse barometer (IB) and the dry troposphere corrections (DTC) used in the Jason IGDR. We observe a bias between the IGDR corrections and those derived from the local sensors. Standard deviations of the sea level differences between T/P and BPG is 52 mm and is 48 mm between Jason and BPG, indicating that both altimeters have similar performance at the Wusi site and that it is feasible to conduct long-term monitoring of altimetry at such a site.     

ENSO to multi-decadal time scale changes in East Australian Current transports and Fort Denison sea level: Oceanic Rossby waves as the connecting mechanism

The connection between East Australian Current (EAC) transport variability and Australia’s east coast sea level has received little treatment in the literature. This is due in part to the complex interacting physical processes operating in the coastal zone combined with the sparsity of observations available to improve our understanding of these possible connections. This study demonstrates a statistically significant (at the >90% level) relationship between interannual to decadal time scale variations in observed estimates of the EAC transport changes and east coast sea level measured at the high-quality, long record Fort Denison tide-gauge in Sydney Harbour, Australia (33°51′18″S, 151°13′32″E). We further demonstrate, using a linear reduced-gravity ocean model, that ENSO to decadal time-scale variations and the ocean-adjusted multi-decadal trend (approx. 1 cm/decade) in observed sea level at Fort Denison are strongly connected to modulations of EAC transports by incoming westward propagating oceanic Rossby waves. We show that EAC transport and Fort Denison sea level vary in a manner expected from both Tasman Sea generated Rossby waves, which account for the interannual and multi-annual variability, and remotely forced (from east of New Zealand) Rossby wave connections through the mid-latitudes, accounting for the ocean-adjusted multi-decadal trend observed at the New South Wales coast - with the regional-Tasman Sea forcing explaining the greatest overall proportion of EAC transport and sea-level variances.     

On the mean sea levels at various locations along the coasts of Japan

The yearly variations of mean sea levels at various locations along the coasts of Japan have been investigated, based upon the data of observation taken at 55 tide-gauge stations from 1953 to 1970, and some discussions have been made on the relationships between those variations and meteorological and oceanographical conditions, etc. The results obtained are as follows:

1. In cases covering 90% of all the tide-gauge stations, the magnitude of the annual mean rate of variation of ground level is less than 10 mm/year, and the mean value of the magnitude for all the stations is ?3.17 mm/year, while that exclusive of Osaka is ?1.7 mm/year.
2. The effect of atmospheric pressure variation on the height of annual mean sea level is of the order of several centimeters in view from both time and place.
3. In view of the characteristic types of variations, the coasts of Japan may be divided into five regions of similar mean sea level deviations. And in the yearly variations of mean sea levels, there can be seen a kind of variation which corresponds to the variation of oceanographical conditions such as abnormal fall of seawater temperature.
4. The mean sea level deviations at various locations along the coasts of Japan, referred to the standard sea level “T.P.” are different for different places. Namely, (1) on the coast of the Japan Sea, the west coast of Kyushu, the coast of Sanriku and the coast of Hokkaido, the mean sea level is higher than on the Pacific coasts from Southern Kyushu to Southern Honshu. (2) Along the coast of the Seto-Inland Sea, the mean sea level is generally higher.

As for the leading causes of the above deviations, we may safely enumerate the following ones, viz. (a) the effect of the deflecting force of the earth's rotation on currents, and (b) the effect of variation of seawater density. However, as regards the relative importance of these two effects, no decisive conclusion can yet be given for the present.     

东海沿海季节性海平面异常成因

Based on the analysis of sea level, air temperature, sea surface temperature(SST), air pressure and wind data during 1980–2013, the causes of seasonal sea level anomalies in the coastal region of the East China Sea(ECS) are investigated. The research results show:(1) sea level along the coastal region of the ECS takes on strong seasonal variation. The annual range is 30–45 cm, larger in the north than in the south. From north to south, the phase of sea level changes from 140° to 231°, with a difference of nearly 3 months.(2) Monthly mean sea level(MSL)anomalies often occur from August to next February along the coast region of the ECS. The number of sea level anomalies is at most from January to February and from August to October, showing a growing trend in recent years.(3) Anomalous wind field is an important factor to affect the sea level variation in the coastal region of the ECS. Monthly MSL anomaly is closely related to wind field anomaly and air pressure field anomaly. Wind-driven current is essentially consistent with sea surface height. In August 2012, the sea surface heights at the coastal stations driven by wind field have contributed 50%–80% of MSL anomalies.(4) The annual variations for sea level,SST and air temperature along the coastal region of the ECS are mainly caused by solar radiation with a period of12 months. But the correlation coefficients of sea level anomalies with SST anomalies and air temperature anomalies are all less than 0.1.(5) Seasonal sea level variations contain the long-term trends and all kinds of periodic changes. Sea level oscillations vary in different seasons in the coastal region of the ECS. In winter and spring, the oscillation of 4–7 a related to El Ni?o is stronger and its amplitude exceeds 2 cm. In summer and autumn, the oscillations of 2–3 a and quasi 9 a are most significant, and their amplitudes also exceed 2 cm. The height of sea level is lifted up when the different oscillations superposed. On the other hand, the height of sea level is fallen down.     

2007-2018年黄渤海海冰气候特征及其对气象因子的响应

基于美国国家冰雪数据中心 （NSIDC） 海冰资料、美国国家环境预报中心 （NCEP） 再分析格点数据和黄渤海近岸13个气象站点逐日气温数据,通过相关分析和合成分析,研究了 2007-2018 年黄渤海海冰范围的变化特征,探讨了近 12 年黄渤海海冰范围对近岸陆地气温、大气环流和局地天气过程的响应。结果表明: （1） 黄渤海海冰范围年际振荡明显,近 12 年呈现先增加后减小的趋势,与同期黄渤海近岸气温呈显著负相关关系;每年 1 月下旬至 2 月下旬是一年中海冰范围最大的时期。（2） 海冰范围偏大与偏小年份东亚地区 500 hPa 大气环流形势呈现出近乎相反的分布。 （3） 东亚阻塞形势的建立是黄渤海海冰范围爆发性增大的一个前兆信号,它带来的大风降温天气是造成黄渤海海冰范围爆发性增大的重要原因.     

Abundance and distribution of meiofauna in the Chukchi Sea

The metazoan meiofauna in the Chukchi Sea were collected from seven shallow water stations(depths ranging 46 to 52 m) and five deep sea stations(depths ranging between 393 and 2 300 m) during the 4th Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition in 2010. The results showed that abundance of meiofauna was higher in shallow water sediments(average of 2 445 ind./(10 cm2)) than in deep sea sediments(407.06 ind./(10 cm2)). A UNIANOVA test for difference between the two different regions was highly significant(F=101.15, p0.01). Nematodes were numerically dominant, representing(96.6±4.6)% of the total meiofaunal abundance at the shallow water stations and(98.90±1.42)% at deep sea stations. The number of higher taxonomic groups and abundance of meiofauna were higher at Stas CC1, CC4, and R06 near the Bering Strait and the continent, than at the rest of the shallow water and deep sea stations. The primary factors causing the differences were concentrations of nutrients P and Si of bottom seawater(R=0.831, p0.003), followed by depth(R=-0.655, p0.05) and sand fractions of sediments(R=0.632, p 0.05). The numbers of meiofauna on the 65 μm and 32 μm sieves were significantly higher than those on the rest of the screens. Differences in numbers of meiofauna retained on screens with different mesh openings were highly significant among all sampling stations(F=31.60, p0.01). The highest numbers of individuals on screens with 32 μm mesh openings were found at deep sea stations. The number of meiofauna in the top 0–1, 1–2, and 2–4 cm segments constituted 84.4% of the total and was significantly higher than those in the bottom 4–6 and 6–10 cm segments(F=15, p0.01).     

Altimetry-observed semi-annual cycle in the South China Sea: Real signal or alias of K1 tidal error?

There have been a number of applications of satellite altimetry to seasonal and interannual sea level variability in the South China Sea. However, these applications usually exclude shallow waters along the coast, with one of the concerns being large aliased tide-correction error. In this study the authors analyzed 14 years of merged satellite altimeter data to obtain the amplitude and phase of the semi-annual cycle and to examine the variation at the K1 alias frequency (close to the semi-annual frequency). The results indicate that the amplitude of the semi-annual cycle ranges from 3-7 cm, substantial compared with that of the annual cycle; while the amplitude at the K1 alias frequency (error of the K1 tidal correction) is essentially 1 cm only. Altimeter–derived semi-annual cycle is in good agreement with that from independent tide-gauge observations, pointing to the competent ability of satellite altimetry in observing semi-annual sea level variations in the South China Sea.     

南半球海平面大气环流的若干特点

利用欧洲中期天气预报中心 (ECMWF) 5°× 5°格点场南北半球位势高度场资料 ,计算并分析了南半球海平面平均地转西风及其随纬度的分布特点和季节变化特点 ,计算了南半球位势高度对纬向平均的偏差 ,分析了超长波的分布特征。以上结果均与北半球同期计算结果作了比较 ,指出了南北半球大气环流的异同点     

Contribution of Tides to Sea Level Variations Along Visakhapatnam,India

The sea level variations along Visakhapatnam coast are governed by astronomical tides and nontidal oscillations including atmospheric pressure, winds, coastal currents, Ekman Pumping, and river influx. Tidal and nontidal sea level oscillations are usually studied separately because of the vastly different ways in which they are forced. In this study the tidal oscillations along Visakhapatnam are analyzed using GOTIC2 tidal model. The correlation between monthly mean sea level and monthly mean tides is 47% (r = 0.68) and increases to 54% (r = 0.74) when applied for inverse-barometric effect. The major six partial tides are computed and presented. The tidal variations from Neap tide to Spring tide are studied.