南海中南部区域储层分布规律及油气成藏模式

目前鲜有以南海中南部区域作为整体开展油气成藏模式研究.在前人研究基础上,结合构造演化、烃源岩研究,重点分析了油气分布特征,解剖了大中型油气田,开展了南海中南部区域碎屑岩储层和碳酸盐岩储层分布规律及油气成藏模式的系统研究.碎屑岩储层主要分布于万安盆地西侧、曾母盆地南侧和文莱-沙巴盆地,渐新世至上新世自南海中南部西南缘-南缘-东南缘主力碎屑岩储层分布层位逐渐变新;碳酸盐岩储层主要分布于万安盆地东部、曾母盆地中北部、礼乐盆地和巴拉望盆地.南海中南部区域迄今发现的54个特大型-大型油气田中,有碎屑岩油气田32个,碳酸盐岩油气田22个,储量合计为46.7×108 t,占油气总储量的81%.依据烃源岩特征、储层分布特点及典型油气田的成藏规律认识,将南海中南部的成藏模式分为3类:自生自储、砂岩储层富油为主、早期成藏;下生上储、碳酸盐岩储层富气为主、晚期成藏;自生自储、砂岩储层内油气并存、晚期成藏.      

油气资源预测的锚链法研究

根据锚链法对松辽盆地北部未发现油气田资源量进行了预测，结果表明，锚链法与分形方法预测的未发现油气田资源量大小有些误差，该方法预测的油气资源量或油气藏个数还很大完善，但锚链法仍是预测油气田数量或资源量的一种可行方法，尤其适合勘探程度较盆地或区带，应用锚链法预测之前必须进行成藏体系划分，方法才有预测功能。     

东地中海黎凡特盆地油气勘探潜力分析

地中海海域油气储量规模大,但分布不均,可采储量主要分布在地中海中部和东部地区。其中,位于东地中海沿岸的黎凡特盆地近年来陆续发现了多个大油气田,资源量巨大,吸引了国内外学者的广泛关注。但黎凡特盆地存在未来勘探方向不明确等问题,因此本文基于该区域油气资源概况、盆地构造、沉积、成藏组合等的研究,对未来勘探有利区进行了预测。本文认为以色列深水区中生界砂岩、碳酸盐岩及古近系碎屑岩体系等均具有一定的勘探潜力,可作为未来勘探开发的重点区域。     

东地中海黎凡特盆地油气勘探潜力分析

地中海海域油气储量规模大,但分布不均,可采储量主要分布在地中海中部和东部地区。其中,位于东地中海沿岸的黎凡特盆地近年来陆续发现了多个大油气田,资源量巨大,吸引了国内外学者的广泛关注。但黎凡特盆地存在未来勘探方向不明确等问题,因此本文基于该区域油气资源概况、盆地构造、沉积、成藏组合等的研究,对未来勘探有利区进行了预测。本文认为以色列深水区中生界砂岩、碳酸盐岩及古近系碎屑岩体系等均具有一定的勘探潜力,可作为未来勘探开发的重点区域。     

东地中海黎凡特盆地油气勘探潜力分析

地中海海域油气储量规模大,但分布不均,可采储量主要分布在地中海中部和东部地区。其中,位于东地中海沿岸的黎凡特盆地近年来陆续发现了多个大油气田,资源量巨大,吸引了国内外学者的广泛关注。但黎凡特盆地存在未来勘探方向不明确等问题,因此本文基于该区域油气资源概况、盆地构造、沉积、成藏组合等的研究,对未来勘探有利区进行了预测。本文认为以色列深水区中生界砂岩、碳酸盐岩及古近系碎屑岩体系等均具有一定的勘探潜力,可作为未来勘探开发的重点区域。     

东营凹陷油气成藏体系的划分及定量评价

油气成藏体系作为油气评价单元的一种全新的研究思路, 与勘探目标结合更加紧密, 油气成藏门限从定量的角度阐述油气藏的形成及分布规律, 尤其对于高勘探程度的地区而言, 剩余资源的预测更为准确.在对东营凹陷油气成藏体系划分的基础上, 利用油气成藏门限理论对各成藏体系进行了定量评价.结果表明: 东营凹陷所划分的8个成藏体系都进入了成藏门限和资源门限, 凹陷总剩余资源量为17.03×108 t; 其中, 成藏体系Ⅷ、Ⅰ的剩余资源最大, 分别为4.41×108 t、3.10×108 t; 而成藏体系Ⅵ、Ⅴ最小, 分别为0.90×108 t、0.22×108 t; 其余成藏体系介于其间.可知, 成藏体系Ⅷ、Ⅰ为最有利勘探潜力区.      

银额盆地哈日凹陷多类型油气藏共生特征及其成藏机理

近年来,银根—额济纳旗盆地哈日凹陷发现了多种类型油气藏,证实其有较好的油气勘探前景,但该凹陷油气地质条件极为复杂,特别是对多类型油气藏的共生特征及其成藏机理认识不足,限制了对油气分布规律的科学预测,制约了油气勘探的进程.基于对各类型油气藏的剖析,探讨多类型油气藏共生特征及其成藏机理,预测油气分布,分析勘探方向,以期为该...     

吐哈盆地温吉桑-丘东地区油气成藏体系与聚集

本文从构造作用、热演化及流体压力孕育与油气运聚等成藏动力作用，探讨了温吉桑—丘东地区的成藏演化，并将其划分为两个油气成藏体系。第一成藏体系从早中侏罗世到老第三纪，尤以侏罗纪末至早白垩世为成藏活跃期；第二成藏体系从新第三纪到第四纪，其中上新世末至今为成藏活跃期。油气聚集以第一成藏体系为主。根据流体动力势场分析了该区油气成藏体系与聚集的关系，提出了油气成藏模式，指出温西、温吉桑油田主要形成于以油为主的第一成藏体系，米登油田为一个油、气并重的油气藏，丘东气田主要形成于第二成藏体系     

论济阳坳陷新构造运动的成藏效应

济阳坳陷新构造运动的构造形迹主要表现为断裂和背斜构造,特别是复活性大断裂及其裂缝,在济阳坳陷油气成藏过程中起着关键性作用。经研究认为,新构造运动诱发和推动油气以断裂系统模式从烃源岩中排出,提高了烃源岩的排烃效率和排烃动力,影响油气运移取向,控制主要油气藏呈北东—南西向展布;输导或封挡油气,洼陷内小断裂和微裂缝等隐蔽输导体系可输导油气形成砂岩透镜体油气藏;控制油气幕式充注成藏;多种输导体系沟通新近系大型披覆背斜圈闭和丰富的烃源岩,形成了如孤岛、埕东等大中型油气田。笔者将新构造运动在油气成藏过程中所起的作用总称为成藏效应,其研究成果有助于重新认识盆地油气资源,并揭示油气成藏机理、成藏模式和成藏规律。     

吐哈盆地温吉桑-丘东地区油气成藏体系与聚集

本文从构造作用、热演化及流体压力孕育与油气运聚等成藏动力作用，探讨了温吉桑-丘东地区的成藏演化，并将其划分为两个油气成藏体系。第一成藏体系从早中侏罗世到老第三纪，尤以侏罗纪末至早白垩世为成藏活跃期；第二成藏体系从新第三纪到第四纪，其中上新世末至今为成藏活跃期。油气聚集以第一成藏体系为主。根据流体动力势场分析了该区油气成藏体系与聚集的关系，提出了油气成藏模式，指出温西、温吉桑油田主要形成于以油为主的第一成藏体系，米登油田为一个油、气并重的油气藏，丘东气田主要形成于第二成藏体系.     

Comparison of Two Methods Used to Model Shape Parameters of Pareto Distributions

Two methods are compared for estimating the shape parameters of Pareto field-size (or pool-size) distributions for petroleum resource assessment. Both methods assume mature exploration in which most of the larger fields have been discovered. Both methods use the sizes of larger discovered fields to estimate the numbers and sizes of smaller fields: (1) the tail-truncated method uses a plot of field size versus size rank, and (2) the log–geometric method uses data binned in field-size classes and the ratios of adjacent bin counts. Simulation experiments were conducted using discovered oil and gas pool-size distributions from four petroleum systems in Alberta, Canada and using Pareto distributions generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The estimates of the shape parameters of the Pareto distributions, calculated by both the tail-truncated and log–geometric methods, generally stabilize where discovered pool numbers are greater than 100. However, with fewer than 100 discoveries, these estimates can vary greatly with each new discovery. The estimated shape parameters of the tail-truncated method are more stable and larger than those of the log–geometric method where the number of discovered pools is more than 100. Both methods, however, tend to underestimate the shape parameter. Monte Carlo simulation was also used to create sequences of discovered pool sizes by sampling from a Pareto distribution with a discovery process model using a defined exploration efficiency (in order to show how biased the sampling was in favor of larger fields being discovered first). A higher (more biased) exploration efficiency gives better estimates of the Pareto shape parameters.     

Conditional analysis for petroleum resource evaluations

Conditional analysis is an essential component for evaluation of petroleum resources. Such analysis attempts to answer the questions: for the input data and a given play potential, what is the most likely number of pools and their sizes? An example is provided to illustrate the usage and application of this conditional method of analysis. This example demonstrates that the method can be used as a feedback mechanism to challenge the underlying geological concepts of the play; and to yield more certain predictions if additional information is given. Consequently, the method will enhance the reliability of the estimates of petroleum resources.     

Creaming and the Likelihood of Discovering Additional Giant Petroleum Fields

The applied context of this paper is the exploration for petroleum resources, like petroleum accumulations in different deposits, where the most promising deposits are likely to be drilled first, based on some size indicators, so-called creaming. The paper explores creaming models in the context of sampling with probabilities in proportion to size, for which a lognormal size distribution has nice analytical features. It departs from the traditional paradigm in petroleum resource assessment. Instead of conceiving a finite population being depleted over time in a decaying fashion with respect to size, the situation is studied within the framework of independent observations (infinite population) and an exploration maturity-dependent creaming factor. The theoretical and practical consequences for inference on the parent population and the probabilities and expectations linked to future discoveries are studied. The theory applies to the issue of remaining sizes of petroleum resources to be found within different future discovery horizons on the mature part of the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The aim is to obtain reasonable and useful predictions, and not to provide the best possible explanation of the exploratory behavior itself.     

Prediction of oil or gas pool sizes when discovery record is available

The Upper Devonian Bashaw reef play of the Western Canada Basin was used to demonstrate: (1) estimation of pool size distribution by means of a discovery model, (2) the usefulness of a feedback mechanism in petroleum resources evaluations, and (3) enhancement of reliability by reducing uncertainty associated with estimates. The feedback mechanism presented herein allows us to challenge geological interpretations. For example, given the second largest pool size, the largest pool size can be estimated, and vice versa. In evaluations of petroleum resources, the uncertainty inherited from superpopulations is inevitably associated with the estimates. This type of uncertainty can be reduced to a certain extent if additional information is included in the estimation procedures and, consequently, the reliability of the estimates is enhanced. The additional information used may, for example, be the geological interpretation of a particular play. To achieve maximum effectiveness, resource evaluation methods should possess these types of flexibility. This study also estimated, with a 90% probability, that the remaining potential in the Bashaw reef play ranges from 32 to 50 millions of cubic meters (200 to 300 MM bbl) of oil in place.     

基于排出—聚集—成藏的石油资源潜力评价方法:以南堡Ⅳ油气成藏体系为例

不同的油气资源评价方法具有不同的特点,将不同的评价方法相结合对于提高评价结果的准确度具有重要意义.基于油气排出—聚集—成藏的地质历史过程,同时结合油气勘探的数学规律来建立油气资源的定量预测模型,以此进行石油资源潜力评价.具体研究可分为4个步骤:①对研究区进行油气成藏体系的划分并定量研究其排烃强度,确定排烃量;②确定该油...     

Lognormal field size distributions as a consequence of economic truncation

The assumption of lognormal (parent) field size distributions has for a long time been applied to resource appraisal and evaluation of exploration strategy by the petroleum industry. However, frequency distributions estimated with observed data and used to justify this hypotheses are conditional. Examination of various observed field size distributions across basins and over time shows that such distributions should be regarded as the end result of an economic filtering process. Commercial discoveries depend on oil and gas prices and field development costs. Some new fields are eliminated due to location, depths, or water depths. This filtering process is called economic truncation. Economic truncation may occur when predictions of a discovery process are passed through an economic appraisal model. We demonstrate that (1) economic resource appraisals, (2) forecasts of levels of petroleum industry activity, and (3) expected benefits of developing and implementing cost reducing technology are sensitive to assumptions made about the nature of that portion of (parent) field size distribution subject to economic truncation.     

Use of the truncated shifted Pareto distribution in assessing size distribution of oil and gas fields

The truncated shifted Pareto (TSP) distribution, a variant of the two-parameter Pareto distribution, in which one parameter is added to shift the distribution right and left and the right-hand side is truncated, is used to model size distributions of oil and gas fields for resource assessment. Assumptions about limits to the left-hand and right-hand side reduce the number of parameters to two. The TSP distribution has advantages over the more customary lognormal distribution because it has a simple analytic expression, allowing exact computation of several statistics of interest, has a J-shape, and has more flexibility in the thickness of the right-hand tail. Oil field sizes from the Minnelusa play in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming and Montana, are used as a case study. Probability plotting procedures allow easy visualization of the fit and help the assessment.This paper was presented at Emerging Concepts, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.     

基于PFC2D模拟的矿物粒径非均质效应研究

岩石作为矿物颗粒的集合体,矿物粒径非均质性对其宏观力学特性影响比较明显。基于颗粒流程序PFC2D,通过设置不同种类粒径组合及粒径比来体现粒径非均质性,研究了粒径非均质性对岩石材料宏观力学特性（弹性模量、峰值强度、泊松比）的影响。研究中设计了6种粒径组合方案,粒径种类数分别为:连续粒径、10种、8种、5种、3种、2种,每种方案下设置5种平均粒径及4种粒径比,进行单轴压缩试验。结果表明,岩石内部存在颗粒尺寸效应和粒径非均质效应,岩石弹性模量和峰值强度随粒径增大均呈减小的趋势,随粒径非均质性的提高整体上也呈减小的趋势,但局部变化阶段受模型中细颗粒含量及数量的影响会呈增大的趋势。粒径对弹性模量的作用机制主要是通过影响模型孔隙率实现的。研究结果揭示了岩石宏观特性的变化是模型内颗粒尺寸效应和粒径非均质性效应共同作用的结果,为掌握矿物粒径对岩石强度及变形特性的影响提供了一定依据。     

Size distribution analyses for estimating diamond grade and value

Analysing the size frequency distributions (SFDs) of both micro diamonds and macro diamonds from primary deposits shows that the distributions are continuous across all sizes and that there are two regions of different character with a transition about 1–2 mm. Using log axes, the frequency curve is linear for the smaller sizes allowing slope and intercept parameters to be determined which are less ambiguous than stone counts and ratios of macro to micro populations that are generally reported. Modelling a diamond population that has undergone removal of a uniform thickness of the outer layer transforms a linear frequency curve into a quadratic form, which is also the form of the frequency curve for macro diamonds. Diamonds grown synthetically also display a linear distribution across a smaller fraction of their size distribution curve.     

济阳坳陷八面河探区油气资源前景和勘探效益预测

在对山东省八面河探区基本石油地质特征、勘探历程及实际的勘探效益和累积发现地质储量变化分析基础上，应用基于探区油藏总体服从帕莱托分布假设的抽样分析发现过程模型，对其石油资源潜力和油藏总体分布进行了预测；并在预测结果的基础上，应用所建立的勘探效益预测仿真模型，对探区勘探效益变化进行了模拟，且外推了未来勘探效益及累积发现地质储量的变化趋势。通过发现过程模型预测，八面河探区总资源量为14900储量单位，剩余资源量为5300储量单位，其中大部分剩余资源分布于较小规模的油藏中。从勘探效益分析可知，八面河探区已进入成熟的勘探阶段，预计未来平均每日探井发现地质储量将小于28储量单位，勘探效益处于一定稳定、低效且缓慢下降的阶段。