Long-Term Variations of the Thermohaline and Dynamic Characteristics of the Black Sea According to the Climatic Data on Temperature and Salinity and Their Assimilation in the Model

We compare the thermohaline and dynamic characteristics of the Black Sea reconstructed by using two versions of climatic temperature and salinity fields:old (1903–1982)and new (1903–2003). The fields are reconstructed with the help of continuous assimilation of the climatic temperature and salinity in the model. It is shown that the climatic thermohaline fields constructed with regard for the data of observations for the last 20 yr are characterized by an insignificant elevation of the halocline (pycnocline)in the winter-spring period and the elevation of the upper boundary of the cold intermediate layer in the spring-summer period. The intensity of surface geostrophic currents is greater than the same quantity computed on the basis of the old climatic data for the whole year. The horizontal currents in the sea computed according to the new climatic data are more intense. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 3, pp. 11–30, May–June, 2005.     

Estimation of the long-term variability of hydrophysical characteristics of the Black Sea based on the assimilation of the climatic hydrological fields L and altimetry data

To study the long-term variability of the thermohaline and dynamic characteristics of the Black Sea, we use three versions of climatic fields, namely, the fields reconstructed in the model according to the old (1903–1982) and new (1903–2003) hydrological climatic data arrays of temperature and salinity and according to the data of satellite altimetry. The analysis of the altimetry-based climatic fields confirms the distinctions (established earlier according to the old and new data arrays) in the seasonal variability of the integral characteristics of temperature and salinity and in the structures of hydrophysical fields in the sea. It is shown that, in the winter-spring season, the thermohaline fields reconstructed according to the new and altimetry data arrays are characterized by a small elevation of the halocline (pycnocline) and the upper boundary of the cold intermediate layer. In all seasons, the altimetry-based surface geostrophic currents contain numerous mesoscale eddies with different signs of rotation. Moreover, in all seasons, the Rim Current reconstructed according to the altimetry data is characterized by a narrower jet almost along the entire its length. This jet is especially intense near the coasts of West Anatolia. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 3–17, July–August, 2006.     

Assimilation of climatic data in a model of circulation of waters in the Black Sea with regard for the space and time behavior of the variances and cross-covariance functions of forecast errors

We propose an improvement of the algorithm of joint assimilation of the data on climatic temperature, salinity, and altimetric sea level in a model of circulation. Unlike the previous works, the variances of the forecast errors of temperature and salinity and the cross-covariance functions of of the forecast errors of salinity-level and temperature-level depend on the dynamics of waters. It is shown that the structure of the fields of cross-covariance functions in the upper mixed layer is formed by the vertical turbulent diffusion of the variances of forecast errors of temperature and salinity. At greater depths, these statistical characteristics are mainly determined by the vertical advection. We compared the results of calculations with and without taking into account the dynamics of the statistical characteristics. The analysis of the influence of the dynamics of these characteristics makes it possible to reconstruct the mutually adapted climatic fields of temperature, salinity, and horizontal and vertical current velocities in the Black Sea with the assimilation of data in the numerical model in each time step. Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 18–31, July–August, 2008.     

Assimilation of climatic hydrological data in a Black-Sea model based on the algorithm of adaptive statistics of prognostic errors

We propose an algorithm of adaptive statistics of prognostic errors aimed at the assimilation of the climatic temperature and salinity fields in a model of dynamics of the sea. The algorithm is used for the numerical solution of the proposed differential equations for the dispersions of prognostic errors of temperature and salinity. The sources in the equations of advective diffusion of heat and salt depend on the four-dimensional dispersions of prognostic errors and one-dimensional (along the vertical coordinate) dispersions of measurement errors. The dispersions of prognostic errors are corrected at the times of assimilation of the data. We perform the reconstruction and analysis of the climatic fields of currents in the Black Sea. It is shown that the structure of the fields of dispersions in the upper mixed layer is determined by the vertical diffusion. Below this layer, the distribution of dispersions depends on the vertical advection. The algorithm of adaptive statistics of prognostic errors allows us to reconstruct the improved mutually adapted hydrophysical parameters with regard for the dynamics of the dispersions of errors. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 1, pp. 26–37, January–February, 2008.     

Reconstruction of the space and time variability of thermohaline fields in the Sevastopol Bay

The aim of the present work is to reconstruct the space and time variability of the three-dimensional fields of currents, temperature, salinity, and density in the Sevastopol Bay under the influence of the actual external factors in 1999. For this purpose, we use a version of the numerical multilayer model on the σ-coordinates. A vast array of the data of observations accumulated as a result of regular monitoring of the Sevastopol Bay contains, in particular, the data on the sea-surface temperature measured with six-hour intervals (at the hydrometeorological station located near the center of the bay) and almost monthly vertical profiles of temperature and salinity obtained at seven hydrological stations. The comparison of the numerical results with the data of observations enables us to conclude that, in general, the model fairly correctly describes the space structure and rearrangements of the fields of temperature and salinity. Among the most important distinctions, we can mention the fact that the fresh river water penetrating into the bay is mixed with seawater faster than predicted by the model. We also discuss the causes of these distinctions. Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 5, pp. 23–39, September–October, 2008.     

A Model of the Sevastopol'skaya Bay. Reproduction of the Vertical Structure of Temperature and Salinity Fields in 1997–1999

We discuss the results of a numerical experiment carried out within the framework of the most complete one-dimensional (integrated over the horizontal coordinates) version of the quasiisopycnic multilayer model taking into account the processes of diapycnic mass, heat, and salt exchange and the diffusion coefficients chosen according to the theory of double diffusion. The indicated experiment reproduces the vertical thermohaline structure of waters in the Sevastopol'skaya Bay and its variability in 1997–1999. For numerical computations, we use the actual data of meteorological observations and measurements of the discharge of the river Chernaya and the sea level. The comparison of the numerical results with the data of monthly hydrological surveys reveals their good agreement (not only qualitative but also quantitative).     

Numerical study of the summer temperature decrease induced by the enhancement of estuarine circulation in Fukuoka Bay

The Princeton Ocean Model with realistic bottom topography has been used to investigate the summer temperature decrease in the past 25 years in Fukuoka Bay. The vertical mixing of the model is expressed by a scheme that effectively includes the influences of interannual variations of tidal currents and wind. The results show that the historical temperature decrease in summer has been caused by tidal currents and wind weakening in the past 25 years in Fukuoka Bay. The weakening of tidal currents and wind gives rise to weakening of the vertical mixing, and to enhancement of the estuarine circulation in the bay. The enhancement of the estuarine circulation activates the inflow of open-ocean water toward Fukuoka Bay. Coastal water in summer has therefore tended to be colder and more saline in the past 25 years. This interannual variation in coastal waters is called “open-oceanization” in this study. On the basis of the numerical model, it is anticipated that the temperature will decrease by 0.2°C in the next 25 years in Fukuoka Bay if the tide and wind weaken persistently as in the present bay.     

Seasonal freshening and salinization of waters in the Karkinit Bay

On the basis on the experimental hydrological data accumulated in the database of the Marine Hydrophysical Institute of the Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences and the meteorological data of the Marine Department of the Ukrainian Scientific-Research Hydrometeorological Institute, we study the characteristics of seasonal variability of the processes of renewal, freshening, and salinization of waters in the Karkinit Bay. We analyze and estimate the repeatability of the inflows of salt and freshened waters from the sea as well as the variations of the areas occupied by these waters in the water area of the bay depending on the seasonal and wind conditions. For the spring-summer period, we estimate the period of renewal of waters in the upper layer of the main part of the bay (11–14 days). A time interval of possible absence of noticeable water exchange between the main and east shallow parts of the bay (of about two months) is revealed in the summer-autumn period. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 24–39, July–August, 2007.     

Advection Mechanism of Replenishment and Refreshment of the Cold Intermediate Layer According to the Results of Numerical Simulation of Currents in the Black Sea

We present the results of analysis of the advection mechanism of replenishment and refreshment of the cold intermediate layer in the Black Sea. The analysis is based on the investigation of the fields of temperature, salinity, density, currents, and the coefficient of vertical turbulent diffusion obtained in the course of prognostic calculations according to the three-dimensional complete model with seasonally variable external fields in boundary conditions. It is discovered that, parallel with winter convection, the cold intermediate layer in the central part of the sea is also replenished and refreshed as a result of the transportation of cold waters formed in the northwest part of the sea by currents.__________Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 17–30, November–December, 2004.     

Statistical structure of the large-scale fields of temperature and salinity in the Black Sea

In order to reconstruct the large-scale temperature and salinity fields by the method of optimal interpolation of the archival data, we compute the correlation functions and analyze the space and time variations of the statistical structure of the fields. On the sea surface, the thermohaline fields are spatially inhomogeneous. Thus, the correlation functions are anisotropic in the region of the northwest shelf and close to isotropic in the inner parts of the sea. The values of correlation length vary from season to season. In the layer of pycnocline, the temperature and salinity fields are anisotropic. In the zonal direction, the correlation length is 2–3 times greater than in the meridional direction. The indicated anisotropy becomes stronger in the winter season and weaker in the summer season as a consequence of the seasonal variability of large-scale circulation. We study the dependence of the error of reconstruction of the fields by the method of optimal interpolation on the form of approximation of the correlation functions with regard for anisotropy. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 1, pp. 51–65, January–February, 2008.     

Numerical Simulation of Wind Currents and Propagation of Impurities in the Balaklava Bay

We present the results of numerical experiments aimed at the simulation of the circulation of waters and transport of impurities in the Balaklava Bay for typical wind conditions established on the basis of the analysis of the data of in-situ measurements. The currents are computed by using the nonlinear σ-coordinate model. The specific features of the integral circulation and three-dimensional structure of the current field are investigated. The statistical characteristics of currents are estimated on the basis of the in-situ data on winds and model calculations. Possible scenarios of propagation of impurities from the coastal sources are analyzed for various hydrodynamic conditions. It is shown that the localized eddy structures in the current fields (in combination with the zones of intense vertical motion) can result in a complex character of the transport of substances in the bay and lead to the formation of local regions of maximum concentrations of impurities on the boundary of the north and central parts of the bay. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 43–58, July–August, 2005.     

One-dimensional nonstationary model of vertical exchange in the Black Sea with regard for the mechanism of winter convection in the surface layer

We construct a one-dimensional nonstationary isopycnic model of vertical exchange in the Black Sea with regard for the processes of draining and transformation of waters of the Sea of Marmara (or “plume”), vertical diffusion, and the action of winter convection in the upper layer. It is assumed that mixing in the basin is local in space and time and that the winter wind action remains constant from year to year in the analyzed version of the model. The temperature of the upper mixed layer introduced to simulate the winter conditions is regarded as the principal external variable factor. Within the framework of the accepted restrictions, the model enables us to study the annual and interannual variability of the thermohaline characteristics and hydrochemical parameters in the water column of the sea. As an example, we perform the numerical analysis of the periodic action of external thermal conditions on the characteristics of the system with a period of six years. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 5, pp. 3–21, September–October, 2006.     

Seasonal variability of climatic currents in the Caspian Sea reconstructed by assimilation of climatic temperature and salinity into the model of water circulation

We present the results of an analysis of the seasonal variability of current fields in the Caspian Sea, reconstructed by assimilation of climatic temperature and salinity into the primitive-equation model of water circulation on the basis of an algorithm for adaptive statistics of prediction errors. The sources in heat and salt transfer-diffusion equations depend on the spatial and temporal variability of the variances of prediction errors and one-dimensional (in the vertical coordinate) variances of measurement errors for temperature and salinity. The variances of prediction errors are adjusted at the moments of data assimilation in accordance with a simplified Kalman filter. The climatic circulation of waters in the Caspian Sea is shown to be highly varying. The maximum of its intensity over the entire depth is reached in February. The minimum of kinetic energy is observed in April. The currents in deep-sea areas are determined by the balance between wind and baroclinic factors of the formation of circulation with wind currents prevalent.     

Analysis of the Black-Sea climatic fields below the main pycnocline obtained on the basis of assimilation of the archival data on temperature and salinity in the numerical hydrodynamic model

We study model climatic temperature and salinity fields and the fields of currents in the 350–1000-m layer. The following specific features are revealed: Colder waters are observed in the regions with anticyclonic vorticity. At the same time, warmer waters are detected in the regions with cyclonic vorticity. This temperature effect can be explained by the elevation of temperature with depth below the main pycnocline. In the region of the Sevastopol anticyclone, at depths greater than 500 m, we observe a zone of cyclonic rotation of waters. Near the Caucasian coast, in the region of Gelendzhik, we reveal a narrow jet current existing at a depth of 350 m from March till July. Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 1, pp.3–15, January–February, 2009.     

Model of the Dead Sea. Simulation of the Variability of the Thermohaline Water Structure in 1992–2000

Within the framework of the integral model in isopycnic coordinates including the upper mixed layer, we study the rearrangement of temperature and salinity fields in the Dead Sea. It is forced by the variability of atmospheric factors and mass fluxes through the lateral boundaries of the basin, which are connected with the freshwater run-off to the sea and the outflow from the sea to the shallow south bay, where evaporator installations for salt extraction are located. Such factors as solar radiation, wind velocity, air temperature, and relative humidity are prescribed. Evaporation is calculated with the use of a bulk formula, whereas precipitation intensity and discharge through the lateral boundaries are determined as functions of the sea level obtained from observations. This model reflects the specific character of the Dead Sea and takes into account the effect of water salinity on its evaporation, salt concretion, and mechanical evaporation. Comparison with the data of observations shows that the proposed model fairly precisely describes the observed specific features of the thermohaline water structure in the meromictic (1992–1996) and holomictic (1996–2000) periods.     

Investigation of Frontal Zones in the Karkinitskii Bay

On the basis of the data from the databank of the Marine Hydrophysical Institute of the Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences and the data of regional marine hydrometeorological stations, we present the characteristics of the seasonal variability of temperature and salinity frontal zones and background gradients in waters of the Karkinitskii Bay. We determine the locations of the frontal zones, the values of their gradients, horizontal scales, repetition, connection with weather conditions, inflow, and direction of propagation of salt and freshened waters in the bay in different seasons of the year. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 30–42, July–August, 2005.     

Modeling of Circulation and Propagation of Contaminating Impurities in the Balaklava Bay

The Princeton Ocean Model is adapted to the water area of the Balaklava Bay for the numerical analysis of circulation. The calculations are performed with the help of the diagnostic method by using the data of the hydrological survey carried out in the bay in August 1992. We study the structure of the surface and bottom currents in the analyzed period as well as the vertical circulation of waters and the circulation averaged over the depth. The obtained three-dimensional fields of currents are used for the numerical analysis of the process of propagation of passive contaminating impurities from the sources located on the coasts of the Balaklava Bay. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 3, pp. 49–61, May–June, 2005.     

Peculiar features of the thermohaline and hydrochemical water structure in the southeastern Laptev Sea

The thermohaline and hydrochemical characteristics of the Lena River’s estuarine zone were investigated in the Buor-Khaya Bay and the southeastern Laptev Sea in September of 2005. A tongue of river water with high nutrient content and increased turbidity was identified in the bay. It is shown that the two-layer structure in the bay is disturbed by warm freshwater lenses. The strong vertical stratification in the shelf zone results in sharply contrasting characteristics of the surface and bottom waters. It is established that the concentrations of biogenic elements regularly change depending on the thermohaline characteristics of the waters and their stratification degree. Stagnant bottom waters with low dissolved oxygen contents and high concentrations of phosphates, nitrates, and ammonium are recorded in the eastern part of the bay. The bottom waters have different hydrochemical characteristics due to their different origin.     

Temperature and salinity effects in modeling the trajectory of the 2011 Penglai 19-3 oil spill

In this paper, two hydrodynamic models were developed using Delft3D and were then applied to the 2011 Penglai 19-3 accident in the Chinese Bohai Sea. One model includes constant temperature and salinity, while the other model utilizes variable temperature and salinity. The two models both simulate currents fields in the Bohai Sea and utilize wind data from the National Meteorological Service of Germany (DWD) to calculate the drift of spilled oil. The hydrodynamic simulation results are consistent with the results of previous studies. We subsequently predict the surface oil trajectories of the Penglai 19-3 oil spill based on the two models, respectively. Comparing the oil-spill simulation results with remote sensing information, we show that the model with variable temperature and salinity exhibits a better fit with the actual observations. Temperature and salinity were two important factors that influenced the movement of spilled oil on the sea surface. According to the result of the variable thermohaline model, most of the oil particles spread northwest and a small portion spreads southeast to the Chinese Bohai Strait. We conclude that density currents should be considered in future oil-spill studies to generate more realistic results.     

Three-dimensional numerical prediction of vertical temperature structure of the Huanghai and the Bohai Seas

In the paper, the sea is divided into two layers with density jumping, assuming that the physical parameters in each layer are independent of depth. Two-layer flow field with tide and wind currents is calculated with extended ADI method, after the calculation for flow field is stable , coupled with temperature diffusion equations and thermohaline depth prediction equation, a four-day time prediction of the surface, bottom temperature and thermohaline depth of the Huanghai and the Bohai Seas. At the same time, three dimensional temperature field of sea water is predicted through vertical temperature distribution function. The result indicates that the prediction quality of the whole model and the fitting degree between the predicted result and the measured values are satisfactory.