Temporal and spatial variations of seismicity scaling behavior in Southern México

R/S analysis is used in this work to investigate the fractal correlations in terms of the Hurst exponent for the 1998–2011 seismicity data in Southern Mexico. This region is the most seismically active area in Mexico, where epicenters for severe earthquakes (e.g., September 19, 1985, M_w = 8.1) causing extensive damage in highly populated areas have been located. By only considering the seismic events that meet the Gutenberg–Ritcher law completeness requirement (b = 0.97, M_GR = 3.6), we found time clustering for scales of about 100 and 135 events. In both cases, a cyclic behavior with dominant spectral components at about one cycle per year is revealed. It is argued that such a one-year cycle could be related to tidal effects in the Pacific coast. Interestingly, it is also found that high-magnitude events (M_w ≥ 6.0) are more likely to occur under increased interevent correlations with Hurst exponent values H > 0.65. This suggests that major earthquakes can occur when the tectonic stress accumulates in preferential directions. In contrast, the high-magnitude seismic risk is reduced when stresses are uniformly distributed in the tectonic shell. Such cointegration between correlations (i.e., Hurst exponent) and macroseismicity is confirmed for spatial variations of the Hurst exponent. In this way, we found that, using the Hurst exponent standpoint, the former presumed Michoacan and the Guerrero seismic gaps are the riskiest seismic zones. To test this empirical finding, two Southern Mexico local regions with large earthquakes were considered. These are the Atoyac de Alvarez, Guerrero (M_w = 6.3), and Union Hidalgo, Oaxaca (M_w = 6.6), events. In addition, we used the Loma Prieta, California, earthquake (October 17, 1989, M_w = 6.9) to show that the high-magnitude earthquakes in the San Andreas Fault region can also be linked to the increments of determinism (quantified in terms of the Hurst exponent) displayed by the stochastic dynamics of the interevent period time series. The results revealed that the analysis of seismic activity by means of R/S analysis could provide further insights in the advent of major earthquakes.     

Seismic microzonation studies for the city of Ragusa (Italy)

The seismic history of the city of Ragusa (Italy), the geotechnical characterisation of the subsoil and the site response analysis should be correctly evaluated for the definition of the Seismic Geotechnical Hazard of the city of Ragusa, through geo-settled seismic microzoning maps. Basing on the seismic history of the city of Ragusa, the following earthquake scenarios have been considered: the “Val di Noto” earthquake of January 11, 1693 (with intensity X–XI on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=7.41 and epicentral distance of about 53 km); the “Etna” earthquake of February 20, 1818 (with intensity IX on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=6.23 and epicentral distance of about 64 km); the Vizzini earthquake of April 13, 1895 (with intensity I=VII–VIII on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=5.86 and epicentral distance of about 26 km); the “Modica” earthquake of January 23, 1980 (with intensity I=V–VI on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=4.58 and epicentral distance of about 10 km); the “Sicilian” earthquake of December 13, 1990 (with intensity I=VII on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=5.64 and epicentral distance of about 50 km). Geotechnical characterisation has been performed by in situ and laboratory tests, with the definition of shear wave velocity profiles in the upper 30 m of soil. Soil response analyses have been evaluated for about 120 borings location by some non-linear 1-D models. Finally the seismic microzonation of the city of Ragusa has been obtained in terms of maps with different peak ground acceleration at the surface; shaking maps for the central area of the city of Ragusa were generated via GIS for the earthquake scenarios.     

Seismic microzoning from synthetic ground motion earthquake scenarios parameters: The case study of the city of Catania (Italy)

The city of Catania (Italy) in the South-Eastern Sicily has been affected in past times by several destroying earthquakes with high values of estimated magnitude. The seismogenic area to the south of Volcano Etna, known as Iblean Area, is placed between the African and the Euro-Asiatic plates on the west of the Ibleo-Maltese escarpment, to the south of the Graben of the Sicilian channel and on the east of the overlapping front of Gela. Basing on the seismic history of Catania, the following earthquake scenarios have been considered: the “Val di Noto” earthquake of January 11, 1693 (with intensity X-XI on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=7.41 and epicentral distance of about 13 km); the “Etna” earthquake of February 20, 1818 (with intensity IX on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=6.23 and epicentral distance of about 10 km). The soil response analysis at the surface, in terms of time history and response spectra, has been obtained by 1-D equivalent linear models for about 1200 borings location available in the data-bank of the central area of Catania of about 50 km², using deterministic design scenario earthquakes as input at the conventional bedrock.Seismic microzoning maps of the city of Catania have been obtained in terms of different peak ground acceleration at the surface and in terms of amplification ratios for given values of frequency.     

Ground response analysis of Kanpur soil along Indo-Gangetic Plains

The present work deals with 1D and 2D ground response analysis and liquefaction analysis of alluvial soil deposits from Kanpur region along Indo-Gangetic plains. Standard penetration tests and seismic down hole tests have been conducted at four locations namely IITK, Nankari village, Mandhana and Bithoor at 1.5 m interval up to a depth of 30 m below the ground surface to find the variation of penetration blows and the shear wave velocity along the depth. From the selected sites undisturbed as well as representative soil samples have been collected for detailed soil classification. The soil profiles from four sites have been considered for 1D and 2D ground response analysis by applying the free field motions of three Himalayan earthquakes namely Chamba earthquake (M_w—5.1), Chamoli earthquake (M_w—6.4) and Uttarkashi earthquake (M_w—6.5). An average value of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) obtained from 1D and 2D analysis is considered for liquefaction analysis and post-liquefaction settlement. The excess pore water pressure ratio is greater than 0.8 at a depth of 24 m from ground surface for IITK, Nankari village, Bithoor sites. More than 50% of post liquefaction settlement is contributed by layers from 21–30 m for all sites. In general, the soil deposits in Kanpur region have silty sand and sand deposits and are prone to liquefaction hazards due to drastic decrease of cyclic resistance ratio (CRR) at four chosen sites in Kanpur.     

A spatial correlation model of peak ground acceleration and response spectra based on data of the Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early Warning System

Ground motion intensity measures such as the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and the pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) at two sites due to the same seismic event are correlated. The spatial correlation needs to be considered when modeling ground-motion fields for seismic loss assessments, since it can have a significant influence on the statistical moments and probability distribution of aggregated seismic loss of a building portfolio.Empirical models of spatial correlation of ground motion intensity measures exist only for a few seismic regions in the world such as Japan, Taiwan and California, since for this purpose a dense observation network of earthquake ground motion is required. The Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early Warning System (IERREWS) provides one such dense array with station spacing of typically 2 km in the urban area of Istanbul. Based on the records of eight small to moderate (M_w3.5–M_w5.1) events, which occurred since 2003 in the Marmara region, we establish a model of intra-event spatial correlation for PGA and PSA up to the natural period of 1.0 s.The results indicate that the correlation coefficients of PGA and short-period PSA decay rapidly with increasing interstation distance, resulting in correlation lengths of approximately 3–4 km, while correlation lengths at longer natural periods (above 0.5 s) exceed 6 km. Finally, we implement the correlation model in a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate economic loss in Istanbul's district Zeytinburnu due to a M_w7.2 scenario earthquake.     

Post-seismic relaxation: An example of earthquake triggering in the Apennine belt (1915–1920)

The strong earthquake (M = 7) that occurred in the Fucino basin (central Italy) on January 13, 1915 was followed by six earthquakes of M > 5.5 and several other shocks of M > 5 in the major seismic zones of the northern Apennines from 1916 to 1920. This seismicity pattern is consistent with the implications of the present tectonic setting in the study area, which suggests that strong decoupling earthquakes in the central Apennines cause a significant increase of tectonic load, and possibly of seismicity, in the northern Apennines. A numerical simulation, carried out by an elastic-viscous model, of the stress diffusion induced by the Fucino and successive largest earthquakes, shows that each of the above shocks occurred when the respective zone was reached by the highest values of the strain and strain rate perturbation triggered by the previous events. Furthermore, the computed strain regime at each earthquake site is consistent with the known faulting pattern. The results provide important insights into the physical mechanism that controls the interaction of seismic sources in the central and northern Apennines.     

Coda-Q and its lapse time dependence analysis in the interaction zone of the Dinarides,the Alps and the Pannonian basin

The single backscattering model was used to estimate total attenuation of coda waves (Q_c) of local earthquakes recorded on eight seismological stations in the complex area of the western continental Croatia. We estimated Q₀ and n, parameters of the frequency dependent coda-Q using the relation Q_c = Q₀fⁿ. Lapse time dependence of these parameters was studied using a constant 30 s long time window that was slid along the coda of seismograms. Obtained Q_c were distributed into classes according to their lapse time, t_L. For t_L = 20–50 s we estimated Q₀ = 45–184 and n = 0.49–0.94, and for t_L = 60–100 s we obtained Q₀ = 119–316 and n = 0.37–0.82. There is a tendency of decrease of parameter n with increasing Q₀, and vice versa. The rates of change of both Q₀ and n seem to decrease for lapse times larger than 50–80 s, indicating an alteration in rock properties controlling coda attenuation at depths of about 100–160 km. A very good correlation was found between the frequency dependence parameter n and the Moho depths for lapse times of 50, 60 and 70 s.     

Nonlinear geodynamics of the Baikal rift system: An evolution scenario with triple equilibrium bifurcation

This is an attempt to analyze the current lithospheric stress pattern in the Baikal rift in terms of nonlinear dynamics as an open self-organizing system in order to gain more insights into the general laws of regional seismicity. According to the suggested approach, the stress pattern inferred from seismic moments of 70,000 M_LH ≥ 2.0 events that occurred in the region between 1968 and 1994 is presented as a phase portrait in the phase spaces of the seismic moments. The obtained phase portrait of the system evolution fits well a scenario with triple equilibrium bifurcation where stress bifurcations account for the frequency of M > 5.5 earthquakes. Extrapolation of the results into the nearest future indicates probability of such a bifurcation (a catastrophe of stress), i.e., there is growing risk that M ≈ 7 events may happen in the region within a few years.     

Seismic response of deep Quaternary sediments in historical center of L’Aquila City (central Italy)

On 6 April 2009 a M_w=6.1 earthquake produced severe destruction and damage over the historic center of L’Aquila City (central Italy), in which the accelerometer stations AQK and AQU recorded a large amount of near-fault ground motion data. This paper analyzes the recorded ground motions and compares the observed peak accelerations and the horizontal to vertical response spectral ratios with those revealed from numerical simulations. The finite element method is considered herein to perform dynamic modeling on the soil profile underlying the seismic station AQU. The subsurface model, which is based on the reviewed surveys that were carried out in previous studies, consists of 200–400 m of Quaternary sediments overlying a Meso-Cenozoic carbonate bedrock. The Martin-Finn-Seed's pore-water pressure model is used in the simulations. The horizontal to vertical response spectral ratio that is observed during the weak seismic events shows three predominant frequencies at about 14 Hz, 3 Hz and 0.6 Hz, which may be related to the computed seismic motion amplification occurring at the shallow colluvium, at the top and base of the fluvial-lacustrine sequence, respectively. During the 2009 L’Aquila main shock the predominant frequency of 14 Hz shifts to lower values probably due to a peculiar wave-field incidence angle. The predominant frequency of 3 Hz shifts to lower values when the earthquake magnitude increases, which may be associated to the progressive softening of soil due to the excess pore-water pressure generation that reaches a maximum value of about 350 kPa in the top of fluvial-lacustrine sequence. The computed vertical peak acceleration underestimates the experimental value and the horizontal to vertical peak acceleration ratio that is observed at station AQU decreases when the earthquake magnitude increases, which reveals amplification of the vertical component of ground motion probably due to near-source effects.     

Bayesian analysis on earthquake magnitude related to an active fault in Taiwan

It is understood that sample size could be an issue in earthquake statistical studies, causing the best estimate being too deterministic or less representative derived from limited statistics from observation. Like many Bayesian analyses and estimates, this study shows another novel application of the Bayesian approach to earthquake engineering, using prior data to help compensate the limited observation for the target problem to estimate the magnitude of the recurring Meishan earthquake in central Taiwan. With the Bayesian algorithms developed, the Bayesian analysis suggests that the next major event induced by the Meishan fault in central Taiwan should be in M_w 6.44±0.33, based on one magnitude observation of M_w 6.4 from the last event, along with the prior data including fault length of 14 km, rupture width of 15 km, rupture area of 216 km², average displacement of 0.7 m, slip rate of 6 mm/yr, and five earthquake empirical models.     

Time-Domain Moment Tensors for shallow (h ≤ 40 km) earthquakes in the broader Aegean Sea for the years 2006 and 2007: The database of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki

We present a catalog of moment tensor (MT) solutions and moment magnitudes, M_w, for 119 shallow (h ≤ 40 km) earthquakes in Greece and its surrounding lands (34°N–42°N, 19°E–30°E) for the years 2006 and 2007, computed with the 1D Time-Domain Moment Tensor inversion method (TDMT_INV code of Dreger, 2003). Magnitudes range from 3.2 ≤ M_w ≤ 5.7. Green's functions (GF) have been pre-computed to build a library, for a number of velocity profiles applicable to the broader Aegean Sea region, to be used in the inversion of observed broad band waveforms (10–50 s). All MT solutions are the outcome of a long series of tests of different reported source locations and hypocenter depths. Quality factors have been assigned to each MT solution based on the number of stations used in the inversion and the goodness of fit between observed and synthetic waveforms. In general, the focal mechanisms are compatible with previous knowledge on the seismotectonics of the Aegean area. The new data provide evidence for strike-slip faulting along NW–SE trending structures at the lower part of Axios basin, close to the heavily industrialized, and presently subsiding, region of the city of Thessaloniki. Normal faulting along E–W trending planes is observed at the Strimon basin, and in Orfanou Gulf in northern Greece. A sequence of events in the east Aegean Sea close to the coastline with western Anatolia sheds light on an active structure bounding the north coastline of Psara–Chios Islands about 20–25 km in length exhibiting right lateral strike-slip faulting.     

Exploring the feasibility of earthquake early warning using records of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and its aftershocks

Earthquake early warning system (EEWS) is one of the effective ways to mitigate earthquake damage and can provide few seconds to tens of seconds of advanced warning time of impending ground motions, allowing for mitigation measures to be taken in the short term. After the devastating Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, hundreds of M4-6 earthquakes occurred with depth range of 2–24 km. We explore a practical approach to earthquake early warning in Wenchuan area by determining a ground-motion period parameter τ_c and a high-pass filtered vertical displacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 s of the P waveforms of these aftershocks with M≥4.0. The empirical relationships both between τ_c and M, and between Pd and peak ground velocity PGV for the Wenchuan area are presented. The τ_c result shows that it is systematically greater for slow earthquakes, leading to a possible false alarm. The moment rate function is used to handle the fact that the Pd parameter alone miss the M=8.0 mainshock. These two relationships can be used to detect the occurrence of a major earthquake and provide onsite warning in the area around the station where onset of strong ground motions is expected within seconds after the arrival of the P wave. The robustness of onsite early warning can be increased by using multistation data when the station density is high or by combing τ_c and Pd as a single indicator.     

Earthquake ground motion predictive equations for Garhwal Himalaya,India

Predictive equations based on the stochastic approach are developed for earthquake ground motions from Garhwal Himalayan earthquakes of 3.5≤M_w≤6.8 at a distance of 10≤R≤250 km. The predicted ground motion parameters are response spectral values at frequencies from 0.25 to 20 Hz, and peak ground acceleration (PGA). The ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are derived from an empirically based stochastic ground motion model. The GMPEs show a fair agreement with the empirically developed ground motion equations from Himalaya as well as the NGA equation. The proposed relations also reasonably predict the observed ground motion of two major Himalayan earthquakes from Garhwal Himalayan region. For high magnitudes, there is insufficient data to satisfactorily judge the relationship; however it reasonably predicts the 1991 Uttarkashi earthquake (M_w=6.8) and 1999 Chamoli earthquake (M_w=6.4) from Garhwal Himalaya region.     

GIS-based soil liquefaction susceptibility map of Mumbai city for earthquake events

The problem of liquefaction of soil during seismic event is one of the important topics in the field of Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering. Liquefaction of soil is generally occurs in loose cohesionless saturated soil when pore water pressure increases suddenly due to induced ground motion and shear strength of soil decreases to zero and leading the structure situated above to undergo a large settlement, or failure. The failures took place due to liquefaction induced soil movement spread over few square km area continuously. Hence this is a problem where spatial variation involves and to represent this spatial variation Geographic Information System (GIS) is very useful in decision making about the area subjected to liquefaction. In this paper, GIS software GRAM++ is used to prepare soil liquefaction susceptibility map for entire Mumbai city in India by marking three zones viz. critically liquefiable soil, moderately liquefiable soil and non liquefiable soil. Extensive field borehole test data for groundwater depth, standard penetration test (SPT) blow counts, dry density, wet density and specific gravity, etc. have been collected from different parts of Mumbai. Simplified procedure of Youd et al. (2001) is used for calculation of factor of safety against soil liquefaction potential. Mumbai city and suburban area are formed by reclaiming lands around seven islands since 1865 till current date and still it is progressing in the area such as Navi Mumbai and beyond Borivali to Mira road suburban area. The factors of safety against soil liquefaction were determined for earthquake moment magnitude ranging from M_w = 5.0 to 7.5. It is found that the areas like Borivali, Malad, Dahisar, Bhandup may prone to liquefaction for earthquake moment magnitude ranging from M_w = 5.0 to 7.5. The liquefaction susceptibility maps were created by using GRAM++ by showing the areas where the factor of safety against the soil liquefaction is less than one. Proposed liquefaction susceptibility map of Mumbai city can be used by researchers for earthquake hazard analysis, for the preventive measures in disaster management, for urban planning and further development of Mumbai city and suburban area.     

Determining fault slip distribution of the Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake with GPS and InSAR data using triangular dislocation elements

The reactivation of the Chelungpu fault triggered the 20 September 1999 Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake (M_w = 7.6) which caused a 100-km long surface rupture that trends north–south. We reconstruct the fault geometry using 1068 planar triangular dislocation elements that approximate more realistically the curved three-dimensional fault surface. The fault slip distribution is then determined with the observed GPS coseismic displacements as well as interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data. The results show that our smooth 3D fault slip model has improved the fit to the geodetic data by 44% compared with the previously published inversions. The slip distribution obtained both by inversion of GPS data only and by joint inversion of GPS and InSAR data indicates that notable slips occur on the sub-horizontal décollement at the depth of 6.1–8.9 km.     

Modification of fault slip models of the Mw 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake by far field GPS observations

GPS data from Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) are used to derive far-field co-seismic displacements induced by the M_w 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake. Significant horizontal displacements about 30 mm, 10 mm, and 20 mm were caused by this large event in northeast China, north China, and on the Korean peninsula respectively. Vectors of relatively large horizontal displacements with dominant east components pointed to the epicenter of this earthquake. The east components show an exponential decay with the longitude, which is characteristic of the decay of the co-seismic horizontal displacements associated with earthquakes of thrust rupture. The exponential fit of the east components shows that the influence of the co-seismic displacements can be detected by GPS at a distance of about 3200 km from the epicenter of the earthquake. By considering the capability of the far field displacements for constraining the inversion of the fault slip model of the earthquake, we use spherically stratified Earth models to simulate the co-seismic displacements induced by this event. Using computations and comparisons, we discuss the effects of parameters of layered Earth models on the results of dislocation modeling. Comparisons of the modeled and observed displacements show that far field GPS observations are effective for constraining the fault slip model. The far field horizontal displacements observed by GPS are used to modify the slips and seismic moments of fault slip models. The result of this work is applicable as a reference for other researchers to study seismic source rupture and crustal deformation.     

Response of a wind turbine subjected to near-fault excitation and comparison with the Greek Aseismic Code provisions

The paper focuses on the study of the dynamic response of a wind turbine installed close to seismic fault in an earthquake prone region of Greece. The investigation of the seismic behavior of the turbine is performed with response spectrum analysis using the elastic acceleration spectrum provided by the Greek National Aseismic Code for the project area, increased by 25% due to proximity to seismic fault, as recommended by the Code. Also, dynamic analysis is performed using the spectrum obtained from the assessment of seismic hazard at the site of the project (Local), for two typical cases of earthquakes of magnitudes M_s=5.8 and M_s=7.3 with epicentral distances of 1 km and 11 km from the test position, respectively. Finally, a time-history analysis is carried out using an artificial accelerogram obtained from the local spectrum envelope, for the site of the project, considering 1% damping ratio. The direct comparison of the response spectrum analysis results with the corresponding ones obtained from the dynamic and time-history analyses indicates that the implementation of the elastic acceleration spectrum is insufficient, although increased, and therefore it could be deduced that the current recommendation of the Greek National Aseismic Code to consider an increment of 25% on the elastic acceleration spectrum in regions close to seismic faults, requires review and further improvement.     

GPS-derived velocity field of the Iznik-Mekece segment of the North Anatolian Fault Zone

Space-based tectonic studies on the western part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) have been conducted over two decades. After the August 17, 1999, Izmit earthquake (M_w = 7.4), this region attracted greater scientific interest, and the collected data became more valuable. The Geodesy Department of the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) at Bogazici University established three micro-geodetic networks to the east of Akyazi, east of Iznik, and west of Lake Sapanca in the eastern part of the Marmara region; GPS data have been continually collected at these locations since 1994. The NAFZ branches out in the western part of the Marmara region and extends up to the Aegean Sea. Segments of the fault passing through the Marmara Sea are considered active, and this has increased concern regarding imminent earthquakes. Conventional geodetic measurements made between 1990 and 1994 are not sufficient for monitoring small movements. However, GPS has played a very important role in detecting such deformations in the area after 1994. The Iznik network, with 10 points, is bilaterally located on the Iznik-Mekece fault. Six years of GPS data for 2004–2010 collected for the monitoring of crustal deformation showed that the Iznik-Mekece fault segment moves westward at about 22 ± 1 mm/yr with respect to the Eurasia fixed reference frame. The GPS observations show that there is no strain accumulation in the area.