Recursive cross-entropy downscaling model for spatially explicit future land uses: A case study of the Heihe River Basin

Downscaling methods assist decision makers in coping with the uncertainty regarding sustainable local area developments. In particular, they allow investigating local heterogeneities regarding water, food, energy, and environment consistently with global, national, and sub-national drivers and trends. In this paper, we develop a conceptual framework that integrates a partial equilibrium Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) with a dynamic cross-entropy downscaling model to derive spatially explicit projections of land uses at 1-km spatial resolution from 2010 to 2050 relying on aggregate land demand projections. The fusion of the two models is applied in a case study in Heihe River Basin to analyze the extent of potential cropland, grassland, and unused land transformations, which may exacerbate already extensive water consumption caused by rapid expansion of irrigated agriculture in the case study region. The outcomes are illustrated for two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. The kappa coefficients show that the downscaling results are in agreement with the land use and land cover map of the Heihe River Basin, which indicates that the proposed approach produces realistic local land use projections. The downscaling results show that under both SSP scenarios the cropland area is expected to increase from 2010 to 2050, while the grassland area is projected to increase sharply from 2010 to 2030 and then gradually come to a standstill after 2030. The results can be used as an input for planning sustainable land and water management in the study area, and the conceptual framework provides a general approach to creating high-resolution land-use datasets.     

Water ecological function zoning in Heihe River Basin,Northwest China

Rapid urbanization coupled with increase in population growth rate in recent years has accelerated economic pressure on the ecological environment leading to a gradual deterioration of global and regional environment. This has particularly resulted into water contamination and shortage of water resources thus posing a great threat to human survival. How to guaranteeing sustainable use of basin water resources has attracted more and more attentions. The Heihe River Basin is the secondary longest river inland China and the significantly water source of Hexi Corridor, the problem of water pollution, ecological environment deterioration and the shortage of water has seriously threatened the ecological system of the Heihe River Basin. In this study, through depicting the characteristics of natural environment, human activities, water ecosystem services and other factors in Heihe River Basin we delineated the water ecological function in Heihe River using the principal components analysis and the K-means clustering method. In the study, Heihe River Basin is divided into 3 primary level areas and 8 secondary level sub-areas. Water ecological characteristics analysis showed that the spatial distribution of the water ecological function of Heihe River Basin was not uniform, which are mainly showed in three aspects, function of windproof and sand fixation, function of soil erosion prevention and function of water sources conservation. The results of this study can provide effective and scientific theoretical references for the integrated water sources management and the ecological function optimization of the Heihe River Basin.     

An integrated analysis of agricultural water-use efficiency: A case study in the Heihe River Basin in Northwest China

The water-use efficiency has direct impacts on the water consumption of agriculture production and is vital to water conservation at both local and regional extent. The agricultural water-use efficiency is a critical indicator that reflects the effective water allocation and water productivity improvement among different agricultural sectors. Taking the Heihe River Basin as the case study area, this study explores the changing trajectories of agricultural water use based on the input–output data of 2003–2012, and estimates the water-use efficiency with Data Envelopment Analysis, Malmquist Total Productivity Index and the decomposition of total factor productivity. Further, the influence of driving factors on the water-use efficiency is analyzed with the Tobit model. The research results indicate that the average agricultural water-use efficiency in different counties is all lower than 1 during 2003–2012, indicating that there is still improvement space in the agricultural water-use efficiency. In addition, there is obvious heterogeneity in the agricultural water-use efficiency among different counties, especially prior to 2009. The research results from the Tobit model indicate that agricultural investment and production, economic growth, industrial restructuring and agricultural plants structural adjustment have significant influence on the agricultural water-use efficiency. The research results can provide significant references for agricultural water-use management in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin and other similar regions in Northwest China.     

Long time-series spatiotemporal variations of NPP and water use efficiency in the lower Heihe River Basin with serious water scarcity

It is of great significance to analyze the long time-series spatiotemporal dynamics of water use efficiency (WUE) to formulating appropriate management measures in response to the growing water scarcity in arid and semi-arid regions. This study analyzed the long time-series variations of WUE in the Lower Heihe River Basin, a typical arid and semi-arid region in China. The net primary productivity (NPP) was first estimated with the C-fix model, then WUE during 2001–2010 was calculated with the NPP and evapotranspiration (ET) data, and the accumulative WUE was further calculated. The results showed that the annual NPP and WUE in the study area ranged from zero to 448.70 gC/(m² a) and from zero to 2.20 gC kg⁻¹ H₂O, respectively, both of which showed an overall increasing trend during 2001–2010. Besides, the spatial pattern of WUE kept overall unchanged during 2001–2010, but with remarkable change in some part of the study area. In addition, the accumulative WUE of the whole study area showed a first sharply decreasing and then gradually increasing trend, but there was still some scope to improve the WUE, and it is necessary to carry out some more specific policies to further improve the water allocation and WUE within the Lower Heihe River Basin. Although with some uncertainties, these results still can provide valuable reference information for improving the water resource management and ecological conservation to guarantee provision of essential ecosystem services in arid and semi-arid regions.     

Multilevel modeling of NPP change and impacts of water resources in the Lower Heihe River Basin

Net primary productivity (NPP) lays the foundation for provision of various ecosystem services, and understanding the impacts of potential influencing factors on NPP is of great significance to formulating appropriate management measures to guarantee the sustainable provision of essential ecosystem services. This study analyzed the impacts of potential influencing factors on NPP in the lower Heihe River Basin, a typical arid and semi-arid region in China. First, NPP was estimated with the C-FIX model, and then the multilevel model was used to analyze the impacts of potential influencing factors on NPP during 2000–2008. Finally decomposition analysis was used to further analyze the contribution of influencing factors to NPP change during 2000–2008. The average NPP increased by approximately 9.07% during 2000–2008, and results of the multilevel model indicate that both the socioeconomic variables and demographic variables are useful in explaining NPP change. In particular, coefficients of rainfall and evapotranspiration which represent the water availability reached 0.0456 and 0.2956, respectively. Results of decomposition analysis suggested that the water availability played an important role in increasing NPP, with a contribution rate of 44.17%, and it is necessary to carry out some policies that can promote the water use efficiency to increase NPP under the background of climate change and intensified human activities. There are some uncertainties in the results of this study, but these results still can provide valuable reference information for the water resource management to increase the ecosystem service supply in the lower Heihe River Basin.     

Expansion of agricultural oasis in the Heihe River Basin of China: Patterns,reasons and policy implications

The Heihe River Basin (HRB) is the second largest inland river basin in the arid region of northwestern China. An agricultural oasis is a typical landscape in arid regions providing precious fertile soil, living space and ecological services. The agricultural oasis change has been one of the key issues in sustainable development in recent decades. In this paper, we examined the changes in the agricultural oasis in HRB and analyzed the socio-economic and climatic driving forces behind them. It was found that the agricultural oasis in HRB expanded by 25.11% and 14.82% during the periods of 1986–2000 and 2000–2011, respectively. Most of the newly added agricultural oases in HRB were converted from grassland (40.94%) and unused land (40.22%). The expansion in the agricultural oasis mainly occurred in the middle reaches of HRB, particularly in the counties of Shandan, Minle, Jinta and Jiuquan city. Changes in the rural labor force, annual temperature and precipitation have significant positive effects on agricultural oasis changes, while the ratio of irrigated agricultural oases has significant negative effects on agricultural oasis changes. The agricultural oasis expansion in HRB is the combined effect of human activity and climate change.     

Attribution of runoff change in the alpine basin: a case study of the Heihe Upstream Basin,China

Quantifying the relative contributions of different factors to runoff change is helpful for basin management, especially in the context of climate change and anthropogenic activities. The effect of snow change on runoff is seldom evaluated. We attribute the runoff change in the Heihe Upstream Basin (HUB), an alpine basin in China, using two approaches: a snowmelt-based water balance model and the Budyko framework. Results from these approaches show good consistency. Precipitation accounts for 58% of the increasing runoff. The contribution of land-cover change seems unremarkable for the HUB as a whole, where land-cover change has a major effect on runoff in each sub-basin, but its positive effect on increasing runoff in sub-basins 1 and 3 is offset by the negative effect in sub-basin 2. Snow change plays an essential role in each sub-basin, with a contribution rate of around 30%. The impact of potential evapotranspiration is almost negligible.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Huang     

Identifying separate impacts of climate and land use/cover change on hydrological processes in upper stream of Heihe River,Northwest China

Climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC) are two factors that produce major impacts on hydrological processes. Understanding and quantifying their respective influence is of great importance for water resources management and socioeconomic activities as well as policy and planning for sustainable development. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated in upper stream of the Heihe River in Northwest China. The reliability of the SWAT model was corroborated in terms of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), the correlation coefficient (R), and the relative bias error (BIAS). The findings proposed a new method employing statistical separation procedures using a physically based modeling system for identifying the individual impacts of climate change and LUCC on hydrology processes, in particular on the aspects of runoff and evapotranspiration (ET). The results confirmed that SWAT was a powerful and accurate model for diagnosis of a key challenge facing the Heihe River Basin. The model assessment metrics, NSE, R, and BIAS, in the data were 0.91%, 0.95%, and 1.14%, respectively, for the calibration period and 0.90%, 0.96%, and ?0.15%, respectively, for the validation period. An assessment of climate change possibility showed that precipitation, runoff, and air temperature exhibited upward trends with a rate of 15.7 mm, 6.1 mm, and 0.38 °C per decade for the 1980 to 2010 period, respectively. Evaluation of LUCC showed that the changes in growth of vegetation, including forestland, grassland, and the shrub area have increased gradually while the barren area has decreased. The integrated effects of LUCC and climate change increased runoff and ET values by 3.2% and 6.6% of the total runoff and ET, respectively. Climate change outweighed the impact of LUCC, thus showing respective increases in runoff and ET of about 107.3% and 81.2% of the total changes. The LUCC influence appeared to be modest by comparison and showed about ?7.3% and 18.8% changes relative to the totals, respectively. The increase in runoff caused by climate change factors is more than the offsetting decreases resulting from LUCC. The outcomes of this study show that the climate factors accounted for the notable effects more significantly than LUCC on hydrological processes in the upper stream of the Heihe River.     

Effects of land‐use changes on hydrological processes in the middle basin of the Heihe River,northwest China

The effects of land‐use changes on the runoff process in the midstream plain of this arid inland river basin are a key factor in the rational allocation of water resources to the middle and lower reaches. The question is whether and by how much increasingly heavy land use impacts the hydrological processes in such an arid inland river basin. The catchment of the Heihe River, one of the largest inland rivers in the arid region of northwest China, was chosen to investigate the hydrological responses to land‐use change. Flow duration curves were used to detect trends and variations in runoff between the upper and lower reaches. Relationships among precipitation, upstream runoff, and hydrological variables were identified to distinguish the effects of climatic changes and upstream runoff changes on middle and downstream runoff processes. The quantitative relation between midstream cultivated land use and various parameters of downstream runoff processes were analysed using the four periods of land‐use data since 1956. The Volterra numerical function relation of the hydrological non‐linear system response was utilized to develop a multifactor hydrological response simulation model based on the three factors of precipitation, upstream runoff, and cultivated land area. The results showed that, since 1967, the medium‐ and high‐coverage natural grassland area in the midstream region has decreased by 80·1%, and the downstream runoff has declined by 27·32% due to the continuous expansion of the cultivated land area. The contribution of cultivated land expansion to the impact on the annual total runoff is 14–31%, on the annual, spring and winter base flow it is 44–75%, and on spring and winter discharge it is 23–64%. Once the water conservation plan dominated by land‐use structural adjustments is implemented over the next 5 years, the mean annual discharge in the lower reach could increase by 8·98% and the spring discharge by 26·28%. This will significantly alleviate the imbalance between water supply and demand in both its quantity and temporal distribution in the middle and lower reaches. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Land use/land cover change and implications for ecosystems services in the Likangala River Catchment,Malawi

Likangala River catchment in Zomba District of Southern Malawi is important for water resources, agriculture and provides many ecosystem services. Provisioning ecosystem services accrued by the populations within the catchment include water, fish, medicinal plants and timber among others. In spite of its importance, the River catchment is under threat from anthropogenic activities and land use change. This paper studies land uses and land cover change in the catchment and how the changes have impacted on the ecosystem services. Landsat 5 and 8 images (1984, 1994, 2005 and 2013) were used to map land cover change and subsequent inventorying of provisioning ecosystem services. Participatory Geographic Information Systems and Focus group discussions were conducted to identify provisioning ecosystems services that communities benefit from the catchment and indicate these on the map.Post classification comparisons indicate that since 1984, there has been a decline in woodlands from 135.3 km² in 1984 to 15.5 km² in 2013 while urban areas increased from 9.8 km² to 23.8 km² in 2013. Communities indicated that provisioning ecosystems services such as forest products, wild animals and fruits and medicinal plants have been declining over the years. In addition, evidence of catchment degradation through waste disposal, illegal sand mining, deforestation and farming on marginal lands were observed. Population growth, urbanization and demand for agricultural lands have contributed to this land use and land cover change. The study suggests addressing catchment degradation through integrated method where an ecosystems approach is used. Thus, both the proximate and underlying driving factors of land-use and land cover change need to be addressed in order to sustainably reduce ecosystem degradation.     

Changes in potential evapotranspiration and surface runoff in 1981–2010 and the driving factors in Upper Heihe River Basin in Northwest China

Changes in potential evapotranspiration and surface runoff can have profound implications for hydrological processes in arid and semiarid regions. In this study, we investigated the response of hydrological processes to climate change in Upper Heihe River Basin in Northwest China for the period from 1981 to 2010. We used agronomic, climatic and hydrological data to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model for changes in potential evapotranspiration (ET₀) and surface runoff and the driving factors in the study area. The results showed that increasing autumn temperature increased snow melt, resulting in increased surface runoff, especially in September and October. The spatial distribution of annual runoff was different from that of seasonal runoff, with the highest runoff in Yeniugou River, followed by Babaohe River and then the tributaries in the northern of the basin. There was no evaporation paradox at annual and seasonal time scales, and annual ET₀ was driven mainly by wind speed. ET₀ was driven by relative humidity in spring, sunshine hour duration in autumn and both sunshine hour duration and relative humility in summer. Surface runoff was controlled by temperature in spring and winter and by precipitation in summer (flood season). Although surface runoff increased in autumn with increasing temperature, it depended on rainfall in September and on temperature in October and November. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

江河源区生态系统服务价值评估初探——以江西东江源区为例

应用生态学、生态经济学、福利经济学方法和前人的研究成果,在研究江河源区生态系统价值评估流程和评估方法的基础上,以江西东江源区为研究案例,初步估算出东江源区生态系统服务功能经济总价值为81.0亿元,约为东江源区2004年国内生产总值(GDP)的4.11倍,单位面积生态系统服务功能价值为23121元/hm2,并对估算结果进行了分析.     

Comparing the performance of empirical black‐box models for river flow forecasting in the Heihe River Basin,Northwestern China

For many practical reasons, the empirical black‐box models have become an increasingly popular modelling tool for river flow forecasting, especially in mountainous areas where very few meteorological observatories exist. In this article, precipitation data are used as the only input to estimate river flow. Using five empirical black‐box models—the simple linear model, the linear perturbation model, the linearly varying gain factor model, the constrained nonlinear system model and the nonlinear perturbation model–antecedent precipitation index—modelling results are compared with actual results in three catchments within the Heihe River Basin. The linearly varying gain factor model and the nonlinear perturbation model yielded excellent predictions. For better simulation accuracy, a commonly used multilayer feed‐forward neural network model (NNM) was applied to incorporate the outputs of the individual models. Comparing the performance of these models, it was found that the best results were obtained from the NNM model. The results also suggest that more reliable and precise predictions of river flow can be obtained by using the NNM model while also incorporating the combined outputs of different empirical black‐box models. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Shallow groundwater dynamics and its driving forces in extremely arid areas: a case study of the lower Heihe River in northwestern China

Shallow groundwater is an important source of water for the maintenance and restoration of ecosystems in arid environments, which necessitates a deeper understanding of its complex spatial and temporal dynamics driven by hydrological processes. This study explores the dominant hydrological processes that control the shallow groundwater dynamics in the Gobi Desert‐riparian‐oasis system of the lower Heihe River, a typical arid inland river basin located in northwestern China. The groundwater level and temperature were monitored in 14 shallow wells at 30‐min intervals during the 2010–2012 period. After combining this information with meteorological and hydrological data, a comprehensive analysis was conducted to understand the dynamic behaviour of the shallow groundwater system and to determine the dominant factors that control the groundwater flow processes. The results of the study indicate notably large temporal and spatial variations in both the groundwater level and temperature. Noticeable fluctuations in the groundwater level (0.5–1 m) and temperature (4–8 °C) were observed in the riparian zone, evidencing a clear river influence. In comparison, the groundwater fluctuations in the Gobi Desert were more stable (the annual variations of the water table were less than 0.5 m, and the water temperature varied by no more than 2 °C). Strong variations in the groundwater table (1.5–5.0 m/year) and temperature (1.5–6.5 °C), mainly caused by surface flood irrigation and groundwater pumping, were observed in the oasis area. The investigated sites were categorized into three types that reflect the dominant hydrological processes: (1) the riparian zone, dominated by riverbank filtration and groundwater evapotranspiration; (2) the Gobi Desert area, controlled by groundwater evaporation and lateral recharge; and (3) the oasis area, dominated by groundwater evapotranspiration as well as surface–groundwater interactions caused by human activities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water use strategies of the desert riparian forest plant community in the lower reaches of Heihe River Basin,China

The object of this paper is the different plant communities in the Ejina desert riparian forest.Groundwater depth,soil moisture,plant water potential,relative leaf moisture content and water use efficiency was monitored,and the response of soil moisture and plant ecology to the groundwater depth and the water use efficiency of the different plant communities was analyzed.The results showed that:(1)Along with the groundwater depth increasing,predawn and midday water potential of the plants,with the exception of Reaumuria soongorica,did not decrease significantly,indicating that when the groundwater depth is less than3 m,the plant communities in the range of 4 km from the river way did not suffer or slightly suffer from water stress;(2)The distribution of higher soil moisture content within 0–3 m soil layer is suitable with the plants’root system,as indicated in the communities of coexisting overripe Populus euphratica or Taramrix chinensis,both of which can release excessive water into soil for shallow rooted shrubs or herbaceous plants when there is water shortage;(3)R.soongorica can absorb deep soil moisture through deep roots for their own survival;(4)The community consisting of Sophora alopecuroides,Karelinia caspica,T.chinensis,and overripe P.euphratica has the best species combination for restoring the damaged eco-environment in the lower reaches of Heihe River;(5)The order of plants’relative leaf water contents is K.caspicaS.alopecuroidesyoung P.euphraticaoverripe P.euphraticamature P.euphratica=T.chinensis coexisting with other speciessingle R.soongoricasingle T.chinensis and the order of WUE is single T.chinensissingle R.soongoricaT.chinensis living in symbiosis with other speciesS.alopecuroides=young P.euphraticamature P.euphraticaoverripe P.euphraticaK.caspica.Therefore,with ample soil moisture,the plant community helps rapid growth of T.chinensis,young P.euphratica and R.soongorica plants of less moisture content.Despite this they do not have much water storage capability,but have strong drought resistance,and higher moisture contents of S.alopecuroides and K.caspica,thus leaving them with poor drought resistance.Overall,the desert riparian forest plant community in the lower reaches of Heihe River helps the species of higher WUE live on it.     

Land use and land cover classification using phenological variability from MODIS vegetation in the Upper Pangani River Basin,Eastern Africa

In arid and semi-arid areas, evaporation fluxes are the largest component of the hydrological cycle, with runoff coefficient rarely exceeding 10%. These fluxes are a function of land use and land management and as such an essential component for integrated water resources management. Spatially distributed land use and land cover (LULC) maps distinguishing not only natural land cover but also management practices such as irrigation are therefore essential for comprehensive water management analysis in a river basin. Through remote sensing, LULC can be classified using its unique phenological variability observed over time. For this purpose, sixteen LULC types have been classified in the Upper Pangani River Basin (the headwaters of the Pangani River Basin in Tanzania) using MODIS vegetation satellite data. Ninety-four images based on 8 day temporal and 250 m spatial resolutions were analyzed for the hydrological years 2009 and 2010. Unsupervised and supervised clustering techniques were utilized to identify various LULC types with aid of ground information on crop calendar and the land features of the river basin. Ground truthing data were obtained during two rainfall seasons to assess the classification accuracy. The results showed an overall classification accuracy of 85%, with the producer’s accuracy of 83% and user’s accuracy of 86% for confidence level of 98% in the analysis. The overall Kappa coefficient of 0.85 also showed good agreement between the LULC and the ground data. The land suitability classification based on FAO-SYS framework for the various LULC types were also consistent with the derived classification results. The existing local database on total smallholder irrigation development and sugarcane cultivation (large scale irrigation) showed a 74% and 95% variation respectively to the LULC classification and showed fairly good geographical distribution. The LULC information provides an essential boundary condition for establishing the water use and management of green and blue water resources in the water stress Pangani River Basin.     

Variations and statistical probability characteristic analysis of extreme precipitation events under climate change in Haihe River Basin,China

The magnitude and frequency of regional extreme precipitation events may have variability under climate change. This study investigates the time–space variability and statistical probability characteristics of extreme precipitation under climate change in the Haihe River Basin. Hydrological alteration diagnosis methods are implemented to detect the occurrence time, style and degree of alteration such as trend and jump in the extreme precipitation series, and stationarity and serial independence are tested prior to frequency analysis. Then, the historical extreme precipitation frequency and spatio‐temporal variations analyses are conducted via generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. Furthermore, the occurrence frequency of extreme precipitation events in future is analysed on the basis of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change multi‐mode climate models under different greenhouse gases emission scenarios (SRES‐A2, A1B and B1). Results indicate that (1) in the past, alteration of extreme precipitation mainly occurred in the area north of 38°N. Decreasing trends of extreme precipitation are detected at most stations, whereas jump alteration is not obvious at most stations. (2) Spatial variation of estimated extreme precipitation under different return periods shows similarity. Bounded by the Taihang Mountain–Yan Mountain, extreme rainfall in the Haihe River Basin gradually reduces from the southeast to the northwest, which is consistent with the geographical features of the Haihe River Basin. (3) In the future, extreme precipitation with return period 5–20 years accounts for a significant portion of the total occurrence times. The frequency of extreme precipitation events has an increase trend under A1B and A2 scenarios. The total occurrence times of extreme precipitation under A1B senario are not more than that under B1 senario until the 2030s. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological and isotopic characterization of river water,groundwater, and groundwater recharge in the Heihe River basin,northwestern China

We used hydrochemistry and environmental isotope data (δ¹⁸O, δD, tritium, and ¹⁴C) to investigate the characteristics of river water, groundwater, and groundwater recharge in China's Heihe River basin. The river water and groundwater could be characterized as Ca²⁺? Mg²⁺? HCO₃^?? SO₄^2? and Na⁺? Mg²⁺? SO₄^2?? Cl^? types, respectively. Hydrogeochemical modelling using PHREEQC software revealed that the main hydrogeochemical processes are dissolution (except for gypsum and anhydrite) along groundwater flow paths from the upper to middle Heihe reaches. Towards the lower reaches, dolomite and calcite tend to precipitate. The isotopic data for most of the river water and groundwater lie on the global meteoric water line (GMWL) or between the GMWL and the meteoric water line in northwestern China, indicating weak evaporation. No direct relationship existed between recharge and discharge of groundwater in the middle and lower reaches based on the isotope ratios, d‐excess, and ¹⁴C values. On the basis of tritium in precipitation and by adopting an exponential piston‐flow model, we evaluated the mean residence time of shallow groundwater with high tritium activities, which was around 50 years (a). Furthermore, based on the several popular models, it is calculated that the deep groundwaters in piedmont alluvial fan zone of the middle reaches and in southern part of the lower reaches are modern water, whereas the deep groundwaters in the edge of the middle reaches and around Juyan Lake in the lower reaches of Heihe river basin are old water. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation extrema in the Haihe River Basin,China

In this article, we investigated the variability of precipitation conditions in the Haihe River basin (HRB) during 1961–2010 by analyzing four daily precipitation scenarios. These scenarios were set with the values of, equal to 0 mm/day, 10–20 mm/day, 20–50 mm/day, and greater than 50 mm/day, which were denoted as P0, P10, P20, and P50, respectively. Results indicate that the mean values of daily precipitation decline, and its fluctuation becomes weak with years in HRB. The contour of daily precipitation with the mean value of 1.4 mm/day moves more than 100 km toward southeast in the basin from 1960s to 2000s. The variations of four precipitation scenarios show difference. The Tianjin and Langfang cities were the P0 drought center in HRB after 1980s, and the days and regions without precipitation increase with years. The magnitude of P10 extrema shows no significant changes over the last 50 years, but the rainfall centers vary with areas in HRB. The magnitude of P20 extrema shows no obvious changes in 1961–2000 but increases in 2000s. The magnitude of P50 extrema obviously declines in the last 50 years, with the rainfall center moving from northeast to south of HRB. Urbanization impacts are reflected in some cities in 1980s and 1990s, but after 2000, the urbanization impacts were not clearly detected due to the significant precipitation decreases in HRB. In summary, precipitation decrease is caused by the decreases of P50 extrema rather than P10 and P20 extrema in HRB, which would be favorable for the flood resources utilization through ample‐low flow operations over space. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.