Extreme climate events,migration for cultivation and policies:A case study in the early Qing Dynasty of China

Based on the historical records of the annual increase in the workforce (men older than 16 years of age), the annual new taxed cropland in the Shengjing area (Northeast China), the extreme climate events in North China, and related management policies in Northeast China during 1661―1680, a case study has been conducted to investigate the relationship between the extreme climate events in North China and the migration to Northeast China for cultivation. This study has found that the migration to Northeast China for cultivation from 1661 to 1680 was a response to the drought events that occurred in North China. The upsurge of migration, which occurred in 1665―1680, was a response to the drought period during 1664―1680 in North China while the fewer disasters period in Northeast China. There were three migratory peaks during the upsurge of migration, which corresponded to the three drought events. The peaks of migration, however, often lagged behind the drought events about 1―2 years. The encourag-ing-migration policy, which was adopted to encourage cultivation in Northeast China, did not produce much migration into the region in the early Qing Dynasty. It did, however, provide a policy background, which ensured more than 10000 migrants per year to Northeast China when North China suffered from drought/flood disasters. As a response to the highest peak of migration induced by the severe droughts in North China during 1664―1667, a prohibiting-migration policy restricted further migration to Northeast China was carried out in 1668. Although the prohibiting-migration policy could not entirely stop the migrants fleeing from famine in North China to Northeast China, the migrants and cultivation were significantly reduced under the policy. The frequent changes of the policy on the years when taxation started after the land was cultivated were also related to climate events. The extreme climate events in North China, migration to Northeast China for cultivation, and the related management poli-cies showed an impact-response chain, which reflected the interaction among extreme climate events, human behavior, and policies.     

Accuracy assessment of global historical cropland datasets based on regional reconstructed historical data—A case study in Northeast China

Historical cropland datasets are fundamental for quantifying the effects of human land use activities on climatic change and the carbon cycle. Two representative global land-use datasets, the Global Land Use Database (termed SAGE dataset) and the Historical Database of the Global Environment (termed HYDE dataset) have been established and used widely. Despite improvement of data quality and methodologies for extracting historical land use information, certain dataset limitations exist that need to be quantified and communicated to users so that they can make informed decisions on whether and how these land-use products should be used. The Cropland data of Northeast China (CNEC) is based on calibrated historical data and a multi-sourced data conversion model, and reconstructs cropland cover change in Northeast China over the last 300 years. Using the CNEC as a reference, we evaluated the accuracy of cropland cover for SAGE and HYDE in Northeast China at spatial scales ranging from the entire Northeast China to provinces and even individual raster grid cells. Neither SAGE nor HYDE reflects real historical land reclamation. Cropland areas in SAGE are overestimated by 20.98 times in 1700 to 1.6 times in 1990. Although HYDE is better, there are significant disagreements in cropland area and distribution between HYDE and CNEC, especially in the 18th and 19th centuries. The proportion of total grid cells whose relative error was greater than 100% was 63.55% in 1700 and 53.27% in 1780. Global cropland dataset errors over Northeast China originate mainly from both the reverse calculation method for historical cropland data based on modern spatial patterns, and modern land-use outputs from satellite data.     

Fractal analysis applied to faults and earthquakes——A case study of China

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Fractal analysis applied to faults and earthquakes—A case study of China

The characteristics and correlation of faults and earthquakes are discussed based on fractal and statistical analysis of the earthquakes in the last 500 years and the active faults in China. It is found that fractal relationship exists between the frequency and the length of the active faults, and the fractal dimension is 1.70 in the continental region of China, and 1.40 in the northwest China. The fractal relationship also exists between the frequency and the scales of earthquakes during the last five centuries and the fractal dimension is 1.30 for the whole continental region of China and 1.08 for the northwest China. The differences of the fractal dimensions between the active faults and the earthquakes indicate that some of the active faults have not caused earthquakes during the last 500 years. The differences of fractal dimensions of the active faults and earthquakes between the northwest China and the whole continental region of China suggest that the frequency of strong earthquakes is greater in northwest China than that of the average level of China, because the number of longer active faults is larger in northwest China than that of the average in whole China. Thus, the fractal analysis is an effective method for studies of faults and earthquakes.     

Complexity analysis of precipitation using the Lempel–Ziv algorithm and a multi-scaling approach: a case study in Jilin province,China

Precipitation is an important part of the hydrologic cycle, and its complexity is closely related to surface runoff and changing groundwater dynamics, which in turn influences the accuracy of precipitation forecasts. In this study, we used the Lempel–Ziv algorithm (LZA) and a multi-scaling approach to assess precipitation complexity for 1958–2011 by analyzing time series data from 28 gauging stations located throughout Jilin province, China. The spatial distribution of normalized precipitation complexity was measured by LZA, a symbolic dynamics algorithm, and by a multi-scaling approach, which is described by fractals. In addition, the advantages and limitations of these two methods were investigated. The results indicate that both methods are applicable and consistent for calculating precipitation complexity, and that the degree of relief is a primary factor controlling precipitation complexity in the mountainous area; in the plain terrain, however, the prominent influencing factor is climate.     

Responses of water use efficiency to phenology in typical subtropical forest ecosystems——A case study in Zhejiang Province

Ecosystem-scale water-use efficiency(WUE) is an important indicator for understanding the intimately coupled relationship between carbon and water cycles in ecosystems. Previous studies have suggested that both abiotic and biotic factors have significant effects on WUE in forest ecosystems. However, responses of WUE to phenology in the context of climate change remain poorly understood. In this study, we analyzed the sensitivity and response patterns of seasonal WUE to phenology in Zhejiang Province where typical subtropical forest ecosystems are located, and discussed potential causes of the changes of the sensitivity and response patterns along different climate gradient during 2000–2014. The results of interannual partial correlation analysis showed widespread negative correlations between WUE and the start of growing season(SOS) in spring. This is because the increase in gross primary product(GPP) is larger than that of evapotranspiration(ET), resulting from an advanced SOS. The positive correlation between WUE and SOS was widely observed in summer mainly because of water stress and plant ecological strategy. The autumn WUE enhanced with the delay in the end of growing season(EOS)mainly because of the increase in GPP meanwhile the decrease or steadiness in ET, resulting from a delayed EOS. In space, the sensitivity of spring WUE to SOS significantly decreased along the radiation gradient, which might be related to strong soil evaporation in high radiation area;the sensitivity of WUE to SOS in summer showed a positive correlation with precipitation and a negative correlation with temperature, respectively, which might be attributed to the compensation of GPP to the delayed SOS and water stress caused by high temperature. The sensitivity of WUE to EOS increased significantly along the radiation and precipitation gradients in autumn, which may be because the increase of radiation and precipitation provides more water and energy for photosynthesis.     

Impact of climate and land-use changes on hydrological processes and sediment yield—a case study of the Be River catchment,Vietnam

Abstract

The impact of climate and land-use changes on hydrological processes and sediment yield is investigated in the Be River catchment, Vietnam, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The sensitivity analysis, model calibration and validation indicated that the SWAT model could reasonably simulate the hydrology and sediment yield in the catchment. From this, the responses of the hydrology and sediment to climate change and land-use changes were considered. The results indicate that deforestation had increased the annual flow (by 1.2%) and sediment load (by 11.3%), and that climate change had also significantly increased the annual streamflow (by 26.3%) and sediment load (by 31.7%). Under the impact of coupled climate and land-use changes, the annual streamflow and sediment load increased by 28.0% and 46.4%, respectively. In general, during the 1978–2000 period, climate change influenced the hydrological processes in the Be River catchment more strongly than the land-use change.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Q. Zhang

Citation Khoi, D.N. and Suetsugi, T., 2014. Impact of climate and land-use changes on hydrological processes and sediment yield—a case study of the Be River catchment, Vietnam. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (5), 1095–1108.     

Is there a concrete relationship between energy consumption, economic development and environmental load in developing economies? A case study in Shandong Province, China

Shandong Province is currently experiencing fast urbanization and economic booming. However, low energy efficiency, energy shortage and other energy related issues are becoming the limiting factors for further economic development. Based on the analysis of Resource and Environmental Performance Index (REPI) of the past decade, the energy saving index shows that the energy saving level in Shandong fell behind the national average level in China. The sulfur dioxide saving index, however, shows that sulfur dioxide reduction in Shandong was significant. The energy demands of Shandong in 2010, 2015 and 2020 have been forecasted with the environmental load model. In a projected ideal scenario, the energy consumption does not increase with economic development. On the contrary, Shandong can achieve rapid economic development with less energy consumption and affordable environmental load if the industrial structure is being further optimized, technological upgrading efforts are strengthened, strict pollutant control measures are implemented, and reasonable plans for energy development are established.     

Changes in the plain river system and its hydrological characteristics under urbanization – case study of Suzhou City,China

ABSTRACT

Rapid urbanization in China has severely disturbed the underlying surface and river systems. The stream structure parameters of Suzhou City were analysed to study the evolution and spatial differentiation of a water system undergoing urbanization. The influencing pattern of different urbanization processes on river system structure and hydrological processes was detected by statistical methods and simulation analysis. The results show that urban sprawl is influenced by both the natural environment and the social economy. At different stages of urbanization, the spatial urban expansion and the natural river characteristics influence the evolution of the river network: during rapid urbanization, the decline in surface water ratio and river density is more intense. The decrease of surface water ratio and river density in rapidly urbanized areas was greatest, followed by that in area urbanized in the 1980s, with few changes in the old town. Under high urbanization, river system indicators tend to stabilize. The rivers’ hydrological features were affected by urbanization, with water yield in the study area increasing from 0.81 to 0.95 m³/m² (1991–2015). The same rainfall intensity results in higher flood levels and greater risk of flooding under rapid urbanization.     

Influence of attenuation and site on microearthquakes’ spectra in Shillong region, of Northeast, India: A case study

We examine the influence of attenuation and site on the spectra of microearthquakes having origin within the Shillong region. The ratios of spectral amplitudes at lower and higher frequencies are measured for three different stations at varying epicentral distances to estimate Q value for both P- and S-wave in near and sub-surface layer. The average estimates of Q _P and Q _S are found to be 178 and 195. The ratio of Q _S to Q _P emerges to be greater than unity in major parts of the Shillong area, suggesting dominance of dry crust prevailing in Shillong region. The variation in corner frequencies for these spectra is inferred to be characteristics of the site. Besides, the disparity in spectral content with reference to hard rock site yields the inference that the incoming seismic signals get amplified considerably while traversing from southern part to northeastern part of Shillong, best outlined at 2 to 5 Hz, which is well corroborated by the existing lithology.     

A case study of the evolution of a Kelvin–Helmholtz wave and turbulence in noctilucent clouds

Bright and extensive noctilucent clouds (NLC) were observed in Århus (Denmark) on 3/4 July of 2008 with an automatic digital camera taking images every minute. This event was unique in the sense that bright NLC were seen at high elevation angles (more than 30°) that allowed observing the evolution of a Kelvin–Helmholtz (KH) wave, resulted in well-developed turbulence. In particular, coherent vortex structures of a horseshoe-shaped form were observed for the first time in noctilucent clouds. The turbulent diffusion coefficient and turbulent energy dissipation rate around the mesopause are estimated in the range 162–667 m²/s and 300–1235 mW/kg, respectively, representing a case of strong neutral air turbulence in noctilucent clouds. Turbulent structures were observed to be in the vicinity of breaking small-scale gravity waves that seems to be responsible for a high level of turbulence.At the same time, it has been demonstrated that it is of importance to take into account non-turbulent process such as the gravity wave motion that is always present in NLC layers. Unless non-turbulent process is taken into account, this certainly leads to overestimating of the value of the turbulent diffusion coefficient. More accurate characteristics of turbulence in NLC can be obtained by analyzing a sequence of high-resolution images with a high frame-rate high-resolution digital camera.     

U–Pb dating and geochemistry of granite porphyry dykes in the Xicha gold–(silver) deposit,southern Jilin Province,China,and their metallogenic significance

We report U–Pb dating of zircon,as well as geochemical and Hf isotope data,in order to constrain the formation time,magma source,and tectonic setting of granite porphyry dykes in the Xicha gold–(silver) district in southern Jilin Province,Northeast China.The zircon grains are euhedral–subhedral,display oscillatory growth zoning and have Th/U ratios varying between 0.11 and 0.78,which together imply a magmatic origin.The dating results indicate the porphyry formed in the Early Cretaceous (122±1 Ma)and it contains SiO_2=70.64–72.31 wt%,Al_2O_(3-)=13.99–14.64 wt%,K_2O+Na_2O=6.96–7.81 wt%K_2O/Na_2O=1.24–2.10,and A/CNK=1.11–1.41.Chemically,the porphyry belongs to a high-K calc-alkaline S-type granite.Chondrite-normalized rare earth elements (REE)patterns show LREE enrichment,light rare earth elements(LREE)/heavy rare earth elements (HREE)=9.93–11.97(La/Yb)_N=11.08–15.16,and d Eu=0.69–0.95.On the trace element spider diagram,large ion lithophile elements such as Rb,Ba,K,Th,and U are enriched,whereas the high field strength elements Ti and P are depleted.The e Hf(t) values of zircon from the granite porphyry vary between-17.1 and-13.2,and their Hf two-stage model ages vary from 2.01 to 2.26 Ga,implying that the magma was derived from partial melting of old lower crust.The granite porphyry dykes and many A-type granites in the region formed at the same time,suggesting an extensiona environment.The combination of the occurrence of strong magmatism,large-scale mineralization,and extensiona tectonics throughout much of Eastern China indicate that the Early Cretaceous was a period of significant lithospheric thinning.The southern Jilin Province,therefore,experienced lithospheric thinning during the Early Cretaceous.     

A method for evaluating the longitudinal functional connectivity of a river–lake–marsh system and its application in China

The longitudinal functional connectivity of a river–lake–marsh system (RLMS) refers to the actual water-mediated transport of material from upstream to downstream areas along a spatial gradient and is fundamental to understand hydrological and biogeochemical cycles. However, due to a lack of consensus on appropriate data and methods, the quantification of connectivity is still a challenge, especially at the catchment scale. We developed a new method to evaluate longitudinal functional connectivity based on fluxes of materials (water, sediment, and chemicals) along a RLMS. The calculation of fluxes is based on the longitudinal pattern of terrain gradient, which influences transport efficiency, and on contributions from hillslopes, which set the initial spatial template of material loading to the RLMS. We evaluate the contributions from hillslopes to RLMS based on a new modified version of the index of sediment connectivity (IC) proposed by Borselli et al. (2008) and revised by Chartin et al. (2017).We applied this method to the Baiyangdian Basin covering an area of 3.4 × 10⁴ km² in China and quantified longitudinal functional connectivity during normal, wet, and dry periods(April, July and December) in year 2016. We found that areas with good structural connectivity exhibited poor functional connectivity during the normal and dry periods. Modelling testing with discharge data from hydrological stations and measured chemicals from Baiyangdian Lake was satisfactory in test periods. We conclude that public data and Digital Elevation Model-derived information can be used to reliably map the longitudinal functional connectivity of RLMSs. The proposed method provides a useful tool for monitoring and restoring the longitudinal functional connectivity of RLMSs and our results indicate that efforts aimed at restoring functional connectivity in RLMSs should take into account landscape patterns that can greatly influence fluxes in the watershed.     

Lake–mire ecosystem transformation and its possible forcing mechanisms in volcanic landform regions: a case study in the Gushantun peatland of northeast China

Large numbers of peatlands were developed in volcanic landform regions, which would provide valuable long-term records of lake–mire ecosystem shifts and act as significant carbon pool in regional carbon cycle. To investigate lake–mire ecosystem transformations and driving mechanisms in volcanic landform regions, the developmental history of Gushantun peatland in northeast China was reconstructed in this study. Results indicate that Gushantun peatland initiated in the deepest portions of the basin, and subsequently experienced expansions outward. Peat initiated from approximately 12 ka cal. bp to present. The developmental patterns of Gushantun peatland can be divided into four stages: the stable stage 1 (12–10 ka cal. bp ), maximum stage (10–7 ka cal. bp ), stable stage 2 (7–4 ka cal. bp ) and stable stage 3 (4–0 ka cal. bp ). The possible forcing mechanisms for the development of Gushantun peatland were different during different periods. From 12 ka cal. bp to 10 ka cal. bp , autogenic process was probably the major controlling factor for the expansion of this peatland. From 10 to 7 ka cal. bp , flat basin morphology was the major influence factor for fast expansion. However, the development of Gushantun peatland was probably controlled by the dual effects of high moisture and autogenic process during the period of 7 to 4 ka cal. bp . From 4 ka cal. bp to present, steep basin morphology was the major influence factor, while moisture might be the secondary factor for development of Gushantun peatland. These features indicate that lake–mire ecosystem transforms in volcanic landform regions of Changbai Mountains were probably triggered by the complex effects of autogenic process, hydroclimate and underlying basin morphology. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of brGDGTs in surface geochemical exploration for petroleum —A case study of oil and gas fields in the Jiyang depression

Branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers(brGDGTs),likely produced by bacteria in soil and peat,are widely distributed,easily detected,newly adopted biomarker compounds.In this study,brGDGTs were used to explore the relationship between the absolute abundance of brGDGTs and the distribution of oil and gas fields in the Duoshiqiao area of the Jiyang depression.The results showed that the concentrations at the Xiakou fault and in the oil and gas fields were obviously higher than those in the contrast areas.The clear relationship among the concentration of brGDGTs,the distribution of oil and gas fields,and the acidolysis hydrocarbon(ethane)indicates that the concentration effectively responds to hydrocarbon seeps from the oil and gas field below.brGDGTs may become some of the most important indicators in surface geochemical prospecting for oil and gas.     

Long-range transport of aerosols from agriculture crop residue burning in Indo-Gangetic Plains—A study using LIDAR,ground measurements and satellite data

Agriculture crop residue burning in tropics is an important source of atmospheric aerosols and monitoring their long-range transport is an important element in climate change studies. Synchronous measurements using micro-pulsed lidar, MICROTOPS-II sun photometer, multi-filter rotating shadow band radiometer (MFRSR) on aerosol optical depth and ground reaching solar irradiance were carried at an urban location in central region of India. Aerosol backscatter profiles obtained from micro-pulse lidar showed elevated aerosol layers up to ～3 km on certain days during October 2007. Satellite data observations on aerosol properties suggested transport of particles from agriculture crop residue burning in Indo-Gangetic Plains over large regions. Radiative forcing of aerosols estimated from SBDART model with input information on aerosol chemical properties, aerosol optical depth and single scattering albedo and broadband solar irradiance measurements using MFRSR showed good correlation (R=0.98).     

Modeling urban growth with GIS based cellular automata and least squares SVM rules: a case study in Qingpu–Songjiang area of Shanghai,China

A critical issue in urban cellular automata (CA) modeling concerns the identification of transition rules that generate realistic urban land use patterns. Recent studies have demonstrated that linear methods cannot sufficiently delineate the extraordinary complex boundaries between urban and non-urban areas and as most urban CA models simulate transitions across these boundaries, there is an urgent need for good methods to facilitate such delineations. This paper presents a machine learning CA model (termed MachCA) with nonlinear transition rules based on least squares support vector machines (LS-SVM) to simulate such urban growth. By projecting the input dataset into a high dimensional space using the LS-SVM method, an optimal hyper-plane is constructed to separate the complex boundaries between urban and nonurban land, thus enabling the retrieval of nonlinear CA transition rules. In the MachCA model, the transition rules are yes–no decisions on whether a cell changes its state or not, the rules being dynamically updated for each iteration of the model implementation. The application of the MachCA for simulating urban growth in the Shanghai Qingpu–Songjiang area in China reveals that the spatial configurations of rural–urban patterns can be modeled. A comparison of the MachCA model with a conventional CA model fitted by logarithmic regression (termed LogCA) shows that the MachCA model produces more hits and less misses and false alarms due to its capability for capturing the spatial complexity of urban dynamics. This results in improved simulation accuracies, although with only less than 1 % deviation between the overall errors produced by the MachCA and LogCA models. Nevertheless, the way MachCA model use in retrieving the transition rules provides a new method for simulating the dynamic process of urban growth.     

Assessment of calanchi and rill–interrill erosion susceptibilities using terrain analysis and geostochastics: A case study in the Oltrepo Pavese,Northern Apennines,Italy

Soil erosion is one of the most important environmental problems distributed worldwide. In the last decades, numerous studies have been published on the assessment of soil erosion and the related processes and forms using empirical, conceptual and physically based models. For the prediction of the spatial distribution, more and more sophisticated stochastic modelling approaches have been proposed – especially on smaller spatial scales such as river basins. In this work, we apply a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to evaluate badlands (calanchi) and rill–interrill (sheet erosion) areas in the Oltrepo Pavese (Northern Apennines, Italy). The aim of the work is to assess the important environmental predictors that influence calanchi and rill–interrill erosion at the regional scale. We used 13 topographic parameters derived from a 12 m digital elevation model (TanDEM-X) and data on the lithology and land use. Additional information about the vegetation is introduced through the normalized difference vegetation index based on remotely sensed data (ASTER images). The results are presented in the form of susceptibility maps showing the spatial distribution of the occurrence probability for calanchi and rill–interrill erosion. For the validation of the MaxEnt model results, a support vector machine approach was applied. The models show reliable results and highlight several locations of the study area that are potentially prone to future soil erosion. Thus, coping and mitigation strategies may be developed to prevent or fight the soil erosion phenomenon under consideration. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate change,migration, and regional administrative reform: A case study of Xinjiang in the middle Qing Dynasty(1760–1884)

Based on historical records of extreme climate events and population densities in Gansu and Shaanxi, and information on climate change, populations, new cultivated cropland, and administrative system reform in Xinjiang, this study explores the interaction between climate change, migration, and regional administrative reform in the middle Qing Dynasty. The results showed that the surge in population migration from Gansu and Shaanxi to Xinjiang during 1760–1820 was caused by extreme climate events(droughts and floods) and population pressure in Gansu and Shaanxi. During 1760–1880, the climate in Xinjiang was unusually cold and humid, which was highly conducive to abundant regional water resources. This provided favorable conditions for farmland irrigation and further promoted agricultural cultivation, population growth, and town development within this region. Additionally,the interactions between climate change and the above-mentioned social factors, which acted as driving forces, spurred the reform in the administrative system of Xinjiang whereby the military administration system was transformed to a province administration system. Through this reform, the Qing government managed to restore peace and stability in Xinjiang. This study contributes to a better understanding of climate-related population migration and enhances our knowledge of the impact-response chain between climate change, ancient social developments, and political coping strategies, especially in regional administrative reform.     

A case study of damages of the Kandla Port and Customs Office tower supported on a mat–pile foundation in liquefied soils under the 2001 Bhuj earthquake

A case study is presented of the interaction between the bending due to laterally spreading forces and axial-load induced settlement on the piled foundations of the Kandla Port and Customs Tower located in Kandla Port, India, during the 2001 Bhuj earthquake. The 22 m tall tower had an eccentric mass at the roof and was supported on a piled-raft foundation that considerably tilted away as was observed in the aftermath of the earthquake. The soil at the site consists of 10 m of clay overlaid by a 12 m deep sandy soil layer. Post-earthquake investigation revealed the following: (a) liquefaction of the deep sandy soil strata below the clay layer; (b) settlement of the ground in the vicinity of the building; (c) lateral spreading of the nearby ground towards the sea front. The foundation of the tower consists of 0.5 m thick concrete mat and 32 piles. The piles are 18 m long and therefore passes through 10 m of clayey soil and rested on liquefiable soils. Conventional analysis of a single pile or a pile group, without considering the raft foundation would predict a severe tilting and/or settlement of the tower eventually leading to a complete collapse. It has been concluded that the foundation mat over the non-liquefied crust shared a considerable amount of load of the superstructure and resisted the complete collapse of the building.