Intermediate-term seismic precursors for some coupled subduction zones

The paper discusses model results and then reviews observational data concerning some aspects of the mechanics of mature seismic gaps in coupled subduction zones. The concern is with space-and time-varying stresses, as signalled by the presence and mechanisms of earthquakes in the outer-rise zones adjacent to main thrust areas of large subduction events, and down-dip from such areas, in the downgoing slab. Observations are shown to be consistent with the expectation that in mature seismic gaps, as a result of interplate boundary locking in presence of sustained gravitational driving forces, at least the deeper portions of the ocean plate in the outer-rise zones are under increased compression, and the downgoing slab is under increased tension. The observational data cover two cases of closed seismic gaps, namely the region of the Chilean Valparaiso earthquake of March 3, 1985, and the earthquake of October 4, 1983. Four other cases concern still to-be-closed gaps in northern Chile and along the coast of Guatemala, and also the Kurile Islands Trench gap and the northern New Hebrides gap. It is concluded that the intermediate-term precursor, consisting of a combination of compressional outer-rise earthquake(s) and tensional intermediate-depth, intra-plate events in the downgoing slab, which mechanically signals the latter part of the earthquake cycle, could be useful in evaluating the maturity, and hence great earthquake potential of a seismic gap.     

地震前兆台网监测能力评估方法及其在首都圈地区的试用

简要介绍了地震前兆台网的前兆监测能力评估的二种方法,并在首都圈地区现今与未来监测能力评估中试用。评估的初步结果表明, 实施首都圈防震减灾示范区数字化前兆台网建设工程之后, 该区的地震前兆监测能力将得到显著增强, 但西南部和东北部山区仍然是源兆监测的“ 空白区”。     

Ionospheric activity and possible connection with seismicity: Contribution from the analysis of long time series of GNSS signals

The modifications of some atmospheric physical properties prior to a high magnitude earthquake were debated in the frame of the Lithosphere Atmosphere Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model. In this work, among the variety of involved phenomena, the ionisation of air at the ionospheric levels triggered by the leaking of gases from the Earth’s crust was investigated through the analysis of GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) signals. In particular, the authors analysed a 5 year (2008–2012) long series of GNSS based ionospheric TEC to produce maps over an area surrounding the epicentre of the L’Aquila (Italy, M_w = 6.3) earthquake of April 6th, 2009. The series was used to detect and quantify amplitude and duration of episodes of ionospheric disturbances by a statistical approach and to discriminate local and global effects on the ionosphere comparing these series with TEC values provided by the analysis of GNSS data from international permanent trackers distributed over a wider region. The study found that during this time interval only three statistically meaningful episodes of ionospheric disturbances were observed. One of them, occurring during the night of 16th of March 2009, anticipated the main shock by 3 weeks and could be connected with the strong earthquake of 6th of April. The other two significant episodes were detected within periods that were not close to the main seismic events and are more likely due to various and global reasons.     

地震中短期前兆某些特征的研究

从前兆分段的物理基础出发,对强震和中强震的中短期异常（1年尺度）基本特征进行了归纳和总结。 认为地震活动性中短期异常以在震中附近出现中短期（约1年）平静为最主要特征,并出现中短期空区。对于多种学科中短期前兆异常的特征,从总体上看尚处于中期阶段的整体发展过程之中。由于不同震级强度的地震,其约1年的时间尺度对其孕震过程的内涵来说有较显著的差异,对7级以上大震和中强地震的中短期前兆异常特征分别进行了研究和总结。     

Evaluation of precursory seismic quiescence in sixteen subduction zones using single-link cluster analysis

This paper describes a new method, single-link cluster analysis (SLC), to evaluate percursory quiescence for shallow earthquakes in sixteen subduction zones, using data from the ISC catalog. To define quiescent regions, we divided the catalog into time intervals with a durationT, overlapping byT/2. We considered all earthquakes having magnitudes larger than some magnitudeM _min, lying within a specified distance of a great circle which is approximately coincident with the trench near a subduction zone. Within each time interval we connected or linked all earthquakes lying within some cutoff distanced of one another. We then projected all these links onto the great circle, and defined a region to be quiescent if it was not covered by the projection of any links. For this study,T was two years,M _min wasm _b =4.9, and we variedd from 100 to 400 km. We defined an earthquake as following quiescence if it occurred within two years following, and within 75 km of a quiescent zone as defined above. The primary conclusion of this study was that earthquakes with surface wave magnitudes 7.2 and greater were about 5–15% more likely to follow quiescence than were the smaller background earthquakes withm _b >-4.9. A chi-squared analysis shows that this result is significant at the 99% level. In contrast, earthquakes with surface wave magnitude of 6.7 to 7.1 were no more likely to follow quiescence than were background earthquakes. Of sixteen individual regions, Central America, Japan, and Peru-Chile were the only regions where large earthquakes were more likely to occur following quiescence than were background earthquakes. For a cutoff link length of 300 km, only in Central America was the difference between large earthquakes and background earthquakes significant at the 95% level of significance. For a cutoff link length of 250 km, the significance level exceeded 95% only in Japan. The SLC method is an objective, quantitative method for evaluating large data catalogs, or for monitoring quiescence in regions where quiescence is conjectured to precede large earthquakes.     

VLF/LF signal studies of the ionospheric response to strong seismic activity in the Far Eastern region combining the DEMETER and ground-based observations

The paper presents the results of a joint analysis of ground-based and satellite observations of very low-frequency and low-frequency (VLF/LF) signals during periods of strong seismic activity in the region of Kuril Islands and Japan in 2004–2010. Ground and satellite data was processed using a method based on the difference between the real signal in nighttime and that of a model. The results of the analysis show a good correlation between ground-based and satellite data for several cases of strong (M ⩾ 6.8) earthquakes.     

2010年玉树7.3级地震前阿尔法导航信号场强异常分析

利用俄罗斯三个阿尔法发射站与中国两个接收站雅安和通海之间形成的6条链路, 获取阿尔法导航信号监测仪的场强数据, 针对2010年4月14日青海玉树7.3级地震开展了震例分析研究。 发现玉树地震前3天4月10日10:30左右, 主台—雅安链路和主台—通海链路f1频率的场强都出现了显著的负异常, 持续时间约为15分钟左右, 同时两组异常序列呈现较高相关性, 分析认为异常可能来源于同一个低电离层扰动。 通过对当日所有链路的数据与背景数据对比分析, 发现东、 西副台与雅安、 通海链路的f1频率场强均无异常变化, 进一步表明这次低电离层扰动在主台-雅安和主台-通海2条链路的有效探测范围中。 此外, f2频率和f3频率在全部6条观测链路上均无明显异常, 说明低电离层扰动区在f2和f3频率的有效探测范围之外。 这些结果的综合分析为扰动源方位判识提供了一定的科学依据。 本文采用的方法可以作为未来分析阿尔法监测数据提取地震异常的一种有效方法。     

有限元方法在地震孕育过程与前兆机理研究中的应用进展

有限元方法的基本思想是将连续的求解区域离散为一组有限个、 且按一定方式相互联结在一起的单元的组合体。 有限元方法是目前应用最为广泛的数值模拟方法, 由于能够将复杂介质的力学本构关系及边界条件问题转化成为常规问题的计算程序, 所以越来越多的地震学者将其应用于地震成因与前兆机理研究中。 该文着重介绍了有限元数值分析方法及其模拟在地震孕育过程与前兆机理研究中的应用进展, 并提出开展小尺度规模如岩石中矿物颗粒之间的力学行为的有限元模拟研究等几点建议。     

The use of local seismic networks for identifying the seismogenic structure of faults

We consider a method for identifying the segments of localization of deformation processes within fault zones. The method is based on the results of seismic monitoring at a dense seismic network in California. For the first time, by analyzing the seismogenic structure of several fault zones, we highly accurately located the domains involved in active deformation processes. Three-dimensional reconstructions show that these domains are a set of local segments each having a characteristic size of about 100 m, which is commensurable with the scale of the probable anthropogenic impacts on the geological medium.     

ZH-1卫星观测的VLF人工源信号特征分析与全波模拟

中国地震电磁监测试验卫星张衡一号（ZH-1）已于2018年2月2日成功发射,正在开展卫星数据在轨测试,并对卫星数据质量进行判定.本文对ZH-1卫星2018年5月至6月夜侧的VLF频段电场功率谱数据进行了分析.通过分析位于不同L值、具有不同发射频率的多个VLF人工源上空的卫星重访轨道观测数据,发现ZH-1卫星记录的人工源信号电场变化标准差与DEMETER卫星记录电场变化标准差几乎一致,说明ZH-1卫星观测数据具有较好的稳定性.通过重访轨道均值与全波模型计算结果对比,发现两者在数值上较为接近,在形态上较为一致,说明ZH-1卫星VLF频段电场功率谱数据具有一定的可靠性.此外,研究了VLF人工源上空及共轭区的电场分布特征和电波传播规律,并与DEMETER卫星的结果进行了对比,结果表明VLF人工源产生的电磁辐射穿透电离层后以导管或者非导管的哨声波模向共轭区传播,因为传播过程中的朗道阻尼,共轭区的电场能量比辐射源顶空更小.VLF人工源位于L < 1.5时,电磁波传播更容易发生非导管传播,VLF人工源信号导管传播模式在共轭区的电场响应相对于共轭点会发生一定程度北向偏移.

     

地震前兆台网观测数据质量分析——中国地震背景场探测项目实施

地震前兆台网的运行直接影响产出的观测数据质量。观测数据平均连续率和平均数据完整率可以反映地震前兆台网的运行质量。对中国地震背景场探测项目试行期间(2014年)及正式启动后2015年度的观测数据质量,从以上2个指标进行分析,并对比原有仪器运行质量,可知背景场项目试运行期间,各学科台网投入仪器运行稳定,观测数据符合相关要求,总体质量良好,观测仪器可以投入正式运行。     

区域数字地震台网实时速报系统研究

根据我国地震监测台网的发展趋势,提出了区域数字地震台网实时速报系统的发展目标,研究了实现这一目标应解决的实时数据流接收、震相自动识别、震相可靠性处理、实时地震定位、震相到时等值线实时绘制、地震震级的实时计算、地震动强度分布图的实时绘制等问题.我们编制了一套实时地震速报软件,实现了上述功能,并用福建数字地震台网记录的地震事件进行软件功能测试.测试结果表明:对于网内地震,软件处理结果基本达到中国地震局地震速报评比满分的要求,速报时间缩短至30～50 s.此外,通过实时仿真技术,系统可给出实际观测到的PGA、PGV、PGD等值线图,可以为应急救灾确定重灾区和有感范围提供帮助.     

An algorithm for the optimum distribution of a regional seismic network—I

Summary An algorithm for the optimum distribution of any number of regional seismic stations is formulated. The information needed from a given region is the relative distribution of seismic intensity and the travel times of seismic waves used in earthquake location procedure. To define the optimum distribution of a regional network, some generalization of D-planning (minimization of the ellipsoid volume of earthquake location errors) was applied. The D-optimum criterion is generalized for a case where equations describing the process are nonlinear and when the most probable values of the sought parameters (origin time and earthquake focus coordinates) are not known.As an example of the algorithm application, the optimum distribution of seismic stations in the central district of the Lublin Coal Basin in Poland is given.     

Study on the Criterion of the Correlation between Deformation Precursors and Earthquakes

The relationship between pre-seismic anomalous changes and earthquakes is one of the most basic information to comprehend the process of earthquake preparation and conduct earthquake prediction research. However, few researchers have carried out relevant investigations for a long time. In this paper, the distribution characteristics of deformation anomalies before the Wenchuan earthquake are analyzed, and the widespread distribution area is discussed. Based on previous studies, we improve the relationship between anomaly duration t and magnitude M by introducing distance D. The new model is characterized by lower magnitude fitting error, making it possible to establish the correlation between deformation precursors and earthquakes. The correlation standard between precursors and earthquakes here is defined as Niu''s criterion, which is applied to analyze and interpret the relationship between the short-term anomalies of Hongliuxia fault leveling and the Wenchuan and Jiuzhaigou earthquakes.     

从卫星观测数据提取地震前兆信息研究中的参考文献

如何从卫星观测数据中提取地震前兆信息,是近年来的一个跨空间物理、地震学和板块构造学等交叉领域的研究焦点,本文收集整理了部分近年来国外学者在该方面研究的论文,以供相关领域研究者参考之用。     

Implications of stress-drop models of earthquakes for the inversion of stress drop from seismic observations

We discuss the inversion of stress drops from seismic observations on the basis of crack or stress-drop models of earthquake mechanism. Since a formal inverse problem cannot be posed at present we discuss implications of solutions to direct problems. We first discuss the static approximations used to obtain stress drop from seismic moment and source dimensions. We show that the geometrical effects are quite significant if only one source dimension has been retrieved from seismic observations. The effect of variable stress drop is discussed and we show that the inverted stress drop is not a simple average of the actual stress drops on the fault. We discuss the energy release during faulting and show that the apparent stress has a complicated relation to the stress drop on the fault. We also show that the static stress drops obtained by seismologists are a lower bound to the actual dynamic stress drops on the fault. This may in part explain disagreements with laboratory results. Finally, we discuss the inversion of source dimensions from the far-field radiation. We analyse two extreme, simple dynamical source models, a circular fault and a rectangular fault and show that geometry has a much more pronounced effect on radiation than is usually acknowledged.     

Prospects for the Development and Application of the Earthquake Monitoring Network

With the rapid development of the economy in China, the seismic network has been changing rapidly, in that the capability of instruments, technological systems and network density are approaching those of developed countries and a large quantity of observation data has been accumulated. How to apply these resources to economic construction and public safety has become an important issue worth studying. In order to improve earthquake prediction and earthquake emergency response, it is suggested in this paper that extracting valuable precursor information, improving earthquake rapid reporting ability and extending rapid intensity reporting function are key issues. Integrating network resources, building unified standards and a multifunction seismic monitoring network are preconditions of establishing a public safety service platform and earthquake observation resources will contribute significantly to the fields of engineering, ocean, meteorology, and environmental protection. Thus, the future directions of the development of the seismic network are exploring monitoring resources, enhancing independent innovation, constructing a technological platform and enlarging the service field.     

地震波实时处理系统在自贡台网地震速报中的应用分析

着重介绍了自贡地震台网地震波实时处理系统在地震速报中的作用，并利用台网1997－2001年地震速报资料，统计分析了发震时刻、震中位置、震级及速报速度等，在地震波实时处理系统参与后，自贡台网速报质量均有大幅度的提高。     

南美西海岸(智利)地震科学研究回顾及其对地震监测预报的启示

智利俯冲带是全球地震活动最为活跃的地区之一,2010年以来已经发生了3次8级强震。本文在调研了该地区地震地质、历史地震、运动学特征等方面研究成果的基础上,梳理了其中与地震预测预报有关的观测现象,总结了相关科学问题的研究进展和认识过程。结果显示:(1)智利俯冲带历史地震记录丰富,基于现代大地测量的断层震间闭锁研究深入,近年来多次8级地震均发生在历史地震破裂空段和滑动亏损较大的强闭锁区;(2) 2010年Maule M_W8.8地震和2014年Iquique M_W8.1地震震前均有不同程度的前兆变化,Maule M_W8.8地震前主要是"一类空区"和"二类空区"的嵌套;而Iquique M_W8.1地震前还伴有b值持续降低,前震活动频繁,GPS时间序列瞬态变化等一系列短临异常变化;(3)同震位错和震间闭锁的空间分布显示智利俯冲带断层摩擦性质复杂;(4)孕震物理力学机制复杂,不同学者不同方法之间还存在一些认识争议。     

大庆遥测地震台网的技术系统

描述了大庆油田无线遥测地震台网的深井短周期地震观测系统，中长周期地震观测系统；地震前兆观测系统和数据处理系统。