震后应急反应辅助决策系统研究

本文以大庆油田抗震防灾信息与辅助决策系统的研制为例，介绍了震后应急反应辅助决策的主要内容，并列举应用地理信息系统（GIS）技术实现辅助决策的具体过程。     

A value chain approach to crisis response system: the case of Qingdao

In this paper, we introduce a value chain approach, on the view of the value chain analytic in business management, to be the framework of a crisis response system serving for crisis management strategy in identifying risk sources, responding to unexpected events, and recovering from a shock. This system is not only a computer system but also a system of governmental emergency response mechanism and it is tremendous and complex. The system integrates and coordinates the correlative resources of emergency response units of the city. We consider the efficiency of the system. In addition, the run cost of the system also is taken into account. Based on this framework, the Qingdao’s practical situation is analyzed. As a result, a design proposal of the Qingdao’s crisis response system is put forward.     

基于ArcView的地震应急快速响应信息系统

介绍了地震应急快速响应信息系统的总体构架及系统主要功能的实现。该系统以ESRI公司的ArcView为GIS开发平台,是基于中国大陆尺度的以人机交互方式实现地震应急快速响应服务的GIS应用系统。     

Application of an earthquake early warning system and a real-time strong motion monitoring system in emergency response in a high-rise building

We apply a combination of earthquake early warning system (EEWS) and real-time strong motion monitoring system (RSMS) to emergency response for a high-rise building; The Kogakuin University has a 29-story high-rise building in Shinjuku Ward, Tokyo. The proposed strategy is based on the Plan, Do, Check, Action (PDCA) Cycle to brush up the systems and the users: in the “Plan” stage, we apply EEWS and RSMS to the building, where EEWS predicts not only short-period strong ground motions but also long-period ground motions [1]. The system is built into a building announcement system, an emergency elevator control system, and an email message system, which quickly send emails to the emergency response team. Meanwhile, RSMS provides information on seismic intensities at each floor of the building via the web browser in real time using the existing network in the building. In addition, the building response and structural damage can be estimated based on this information. The network system is impervious to the earthquake damage, because the network cable has extra length, there is, however, possible that a network system does not work due to power outage. Thus, we develop the network system that has uninterruptible power-supply system (UPS) and apply it to EEWS and RSMS. The high-rise building has the emergency call units to the security control center in the building on every floor. The emergency call line, however, will be busy promptly, because it is able to use only one line. Therefore, we installed IP telephone which uses the network system on main floors. UPS will work about 30 min after a major earthquake, it is supposed to be enough time for gathering the damage information about the building during initial response. In the “Do” stage, we prepare emergency response instruction manuals and educate the faculty members and students to carry out promptly emergency response. In the “Check” stage, the validity of the proposed systems are verified by carrying out an earthquake drill in an actual high-rise building. The earthquake drill confirmed that our proposed approach is valid. In the final “Action” stage, we improve these systems and emergency response manual and educate people in the building how to use effectively these systems.     

地震应急时交通管制需求判断模型探讨

地震发生后,应急救援工作依赖于交通的通达性.城市灾区的交通状况是否能够满足救援队伍的通行?是否需要进行交通管制?管制区域多大?这些问题从地震发生开始到现场调查的进行过程中,都是需要回答的问题.本文基于应急预案和各种地震案例的研究,提出交通管制需求的判断计算模型.     

城市地震应急指挥决策支持软件数据库的建立

设计了城市地震应急指挥决策支持软件数据库的原型,介绍了数据库和软件功能模块的关系,给出了该数据库应包括的内容,设计了数据库中空间数据和属性数据的结构及数据类结构,并介绍了数据来源以及数据的处理方法和过程。对城市建立地震应急指挥决策支持软件有参考价值。     

供水系统震害预测专家系统

本文建立了供水系统震害预测专家系统,把计算分析方法和专家经验相结合,形成了知识库和推理判断。其中,计算方法考虑了管段的地震反应机理和管土相互作用的特征,包括在地震地质灾害场地的管道震害预测方法。经验判断来的于震害数据和专家经验,较全面地考虑了影响管道震害的主要因素。在ＧＩＳ软件平台上形成了专用程序,界面友好,数据交换方便,已应用于实际工程。     

利用互连网发布海量地震应急信息方案

通过比较几种Internet GIS不同开发方案,详细探讨了ArcIMS地图服务软件平台的特点和功能。在Internet上开发高效的海量地理信息数据发布系统时候,涉及到超大容量的影像/图像数据,提出了解决这个问题的方案,并以构建地震应急指挥系统中的信息发布子系统为例,介绍了使用ArcIMS进行海量信息发布的实现方案。     

太湖流域太浦河周边区域突发水污染潜在风险评估

太浦河是太湖流域重要跨省界河流,沿岸区域污染源众多,下游分布重要水源地,存在突发水污染潜在风险,迫切需要开展区域污染源潜在风险评估,为突发水污染事件的风险防控提供科学依据.本研究通过太浦河周边区域的污染源调研,明确污染源的空间分布与污染源强,确定评估区域的主要污染物（化学需氧量、氨氮、锑、重金属铬、油品、危险化学品）,综合考虑污染源、河流水文、沿岸社会经济等因素,筛选突发水污染潜在风险评估指标,构建评估指标体系,评估突发水污染事件的综合风险,识别太浦河周边区域的主要突发水污染潜在风险源.研究结果表明：太浦河周边区域的高突发水污染风险区呈现片状或斑块状分布,主要包括大型污水处理厂区域、大型工业企业区域、加油站和危险化学品仓库集中分布区、太浦河沿岸工业企业区域、水源地周边工业企业区域,总面积为22 km²,占太浦河污染源风险评估范围总面积的1.4%,是突发水污染事件防控的重点区域.     

地震应急对策决策支持软件的设计与开发

基于空间决策支持技术,设计与开发了地震应急对策软件,在软件的总体设计、功能模块、数据库建设、地震应急对策模型及接口设计与模块集成等方面进行了研究与开发,并在“青岛市地震应急指挥决策支持软件系统”中得到实际应用和检验。实践证明,该软件能够实现城市地震灾害信息的科学管理,智能制定各种地震应急对策和生动的可视化,从而有效提高地震应急的效率和响应速度,为城市地震应急工作提供了有效的辅助决策手段;建成的“青岛市地震应急对策系统”对全国大中城市地震应急指挥技术系统的建设具有示范意义。     

应对巨大地震的应急流动观测系统

通过“十五”数字地震观测网络项目建设,目前。我国的地震观测系统和地震观测信号传输几乎完全依赖于公共通讯网络。但是,大地震常常严重破坏公共通讯系统,应对巨大地震的流动观测系统就提到迫切的日程。2007年,通过采用无线竞带接入技术,结合中国地震局数字地震观测网络技术,初步建成了应对巨大地震的应急流动观测系统,并在汶川地震现场观测初期发挥了重要作用。     

降雨动态系统响应曲线修正方法在黄土区域水沙模拟中的应用

采用水沙模型对流域水沙过程进行计算是目前分析和研究黄土地区水土流失、水沙锐减等问题的有效途径由于降雨的时段均化和缺测、漏测、误测等问题,导致水沙模型的重要输入项和动力因子——降雨资料存在误差,进而影响水流和泥沙过程模拟精度因此,本研究将降雨动态系统响应曲线的误差修正方法与概念性水沙模拟模型相结合以提高水沙过程模拟精度此方法将水沙模型的水流模拟部分看作响应系统,通过修正水沙模型的重要输入项——面平均雨量,利用修正之后的面平均雨量系列,通过模型重新计算以提高模型对产汇流和产汇沙过程的模拟精度通过理想案例验证该方法可行性后,选择黄土地区曹坪流域进行检验,结果表明修正后的水流和泥沙过程模拟精度均有显著提高,平均提高幅度分别为17.56%和15.86%.     

Complex sources of air-soil-water pollution processes in the Miyun reservoir region

The comprehensive impact of atmospheric dry deposition and wet deposition and the pollution sources of farmlands, mining areas, and towns along the Baihe River on the water quality of Miyun reservoir is investigated from the angle of the complex sources of air-soil-water pollution processes, in the context of the 1990-2001 precipitation chemical data at Shangdianzi station--a WMO regional background air pollution monitoring station 15 km far from the Miyun reservoir, in conjunction with the atmospheric dry deposition and wet deposition data of the 2002-2003 Beijing City Air Pollution Observation Field Experiment (BECAPEX). Analysis results suggest that the major ions in precipitation in the Miyun reservoir region in this period were SO, NO, NH and Ca2+; wet acid deposition quantity of Miyun reservoir in the summer half year (April to September) was greater than the quantity in the winter half year (October to March), and the annual wet acid deposition in the reservoir exhibited a rising trend with the mean 1038.45 t, the maximum 1766.31 t occurred in 1996, and the minimum 604.02 t in 1994; the long-term averaged pH of atmospheric precipitation in the Miyun reservoir region was 5.20, i.e. weakly acidic, and the interannual variation of pH values displayed a falling trend. pH values of water body at various depths in the Miyun reservoir were all greater than 7.0, but they exhibited vertical and horizontal nonhomogeneity, and at the same region pH decreased vertically with depth; the 2002 and 2003 annual dustfalls in the Miyun reservoir were 13513.08 t and 3577.64 t, respectively, and the spring dustfall was the number one in a year, accounting for the 61.91% and 44.56% of the annual totals of 2002 and 2003, respectively. Because the atmospheric dry deposition and wet depositions contain multiple types heavy metal elements and harmful elements, they to some extent exacerbated the eutrophication, acidification and potential heavy metal pollution of the reservoir water. The above comprehensive analysis results reveal the complex source characters of the air-soil-water pollution process and the multi-sphere interaction effect. Besides, summer (rainy season) is a season when local soil pollutants enter the water system of reservoir after being washed out by torrential rain or heavy precipitation, which starts the air-soil- water chaining pollution processes, and results in the water pollution of rivers and reservoirs. It is found from the statistical analysis in this paper that the water pollution of Miyun reservoir was correlated with the rain wash-out and confluent flow in the peripheral and upstream local region of the reservoir, and the pollutant concentration of the reservoir water was significantly correlated with the upstream local region precipitation. Those correlation characters reveal the effect of the air-soil-water multi-spheric interaction of reservoir water pollution process. This paper presents the point of view of the complex source analysis of reservoir water pollution and a technical approach for tracing the spatial distribution of the upstream pollution source of the water systems of reservoir.     

Groundwater–surface water interactions,nutrient fluxes and ecological response in river corridors: Translating science into effective environmental management

A summary is provided of the second in a series of Integrated Science Initiative workshops supported by the UNESCO International Hydrological Programme. The workshop brought together hydrologists, ecologists, biogeochemists, hydrogeologists and natural resource managers to discuss the processes that occur in hyporheic and riparian ecotones. The principal objectives were to share new ideas on the importance of biogeochemical processes that affect nutrients at the groundwater–surface water interface, to understand the impact of nutrient flux on stream (principally hyporheic) ecology, and to identify the management strategies for river corridors to mitigate the effects of nutrients applied to land and discharged via groundwater into rivers. The workshop concluded that: (1) more interdisciplinary research and environmental management practices are needed to better understand, predict and manage processes at the interface of environmental compartments; (2) the goal of environmental regulations to improve ecological health requires a holistic approach integrating our understanding of the ecological, hydrological, biogeochemical and physical processes; (3) upscaling spatially and temporally variable processes remains difficult and may hinder translation of research at micro‐scales (molecular to grain size) into macro‐scale (reach to catchment) decision‐making; (4) scientists need to better communicate existing research to river managers, while smanagers must better communicate policy and regulatory‐driven science requirements to researchers. Existing models, such as those that simulate stream–hyporheic exchange, are not widely known and rarely used by environmental managers. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating water table response to rainfall events in a shallow aquifer and canal system

Shallow aquifers typically have greater hydrologic connectivity and response to recharge and changes in surface water management practices than deeper aquifers and are therefore often managed to reduce the risk of flooding. Quantification of the water table elevation response under different management scenarios provides valuable information in shallow aquifer systems to assess indirect influences of such modifications. The episodic master recession method was applied to the 15‐min water table elevation and NEXRAD rainfall data for 6 wells to identify water table response and individual rainfall events. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effects of rainfall, water table elevation, canal stage, site‐specific characteristics, and canal structure modification/water management practice on the fluctuations in water table elevations using multiple/stepwise multiple linear regression techniques. With the modification of canal structure and operation adjustment, significant difference existed in water table response in the southern wells due to its relative downstream position regarding the general groundwater flow direction and the structural modification locations. On average, water table response height and flood risk were lower after than before the structure modification to canals. The effect of rainfall event size on the height of water table response was greater than the effect of antecedent water table elevation and canal stage on the height of water table response. Other factors including leakance of the canal bed sediment, specific yield, and rainfall on i  ? 1 day had significant effects on the height of water table response as well. Antecedent water table elevation and canal stage had greater and more linear effects on the height of water table response after the management changes to canals. Variation in water table response height/rainfall event size ratio was attributed to difference in S _y , antecedent soil water content, hydraulic gradient, rainfall size, and run‐off ratio. After the structure modification, water table response height/rainfall event size ratio demonstrated more linear and proportional relationship with antecedent water table elevation and canal stage.     

基于GIS的大中城市应急决策反应系统设计与实现

大中城市应急决策反应系统采用了B/S与C/S相结合的框架结构,它集GIS与.NET最新技术为一体,为地震应急指挥开发构建了一个综合业务技术平台。本文介绍城市应急决策反应系统的设计思路、技术关键点及其应用等,该技术系统实现了各地与上级各指挥中心之间便捷的灾情上报,能够为地震应急指挥快速、动态提供灾情文档和辅助决策。     

基于脉冲响应数据的ARMA法建模以及模态参数识别

本文提出了基于脉冲响应数据的ARMA法建模以及模态参数识别的新方法。该方法利用单位脉冲响应函数与ARMA模型G reen函数等价的特点,通过脉冲响应函数来估计系统响应的自相关系数,然后建立推广的Yu le-W alker方程以求得ARMA模型自回归系数并进行参数识别。最后通过算例,对一个模拟系统进行了参数识别,对采样频率、识别精度、模型阶数之间的影响规律进行了分析。     

沈阳市供水系统抗震功能可靠性分析

城市供水管网的抗震研究能够服务于供水管网的规划、设计和改造。以沈阳市供水管网系统为背景,介绍了一类求解大型供水网络节点及系统功能可靠度的方法。对沈阳市主干供水网络进行了抗震功能可靠性分析。研究结果证明,建议方法是合理评价供水管网地震后工作性能的工具,可以为大型供水管网的抗震可靠度分析及抗震设计服务提供基础。     

不同采样率水位同震响应能力及其特征分析

分析同种仪器不同采样率水位资料同震响应记录情况,发现存在很大差异,不但形态上明显不同,响应能力及响应幅度上也差别很大.在此基础上认为,秒采样率数据能更好记录同震响应.指出,为了记录到真实完整可靠的同震响应,观测仪器应在采样率、数据存储容量、GPS授时、触发阈值、时值及分钟值取值方式等方面作改进.最后指出,同震响应分析可能是今后地震分析预报有所突破的一个研究方向.