Selection of regional historical rainfall time series as input to urban drainage simulations at ungauged locations

It has become established practice during the past 20 years to use high-resolution historical rainfall time series as input to hydrological model packages for detailed simulation of urban drainage systems. However, sufficiently long rain series are rarely available from the exact catchment in question and simulations are hence often based on available rain series from other locations. Extreme rainfall properties of importance to the performance of urban storm drainage systems vary significantly even in regions with only minor physiographic differences. Part of this variation can be explained by regional variations of the mean annual rainfall and the remaining statistical residue can be interpreted as statistical uncertainty.In Denmark, more than 75 high-resolution rain gauges are installed across a total area of 43,000 m. About 40 gauges had sufficiently long records to be included in a comprehensive national investigation where newly developed statistical regionalisation procedures were used to model the regional variation of extreme rainfalls. On this basis, a spreadsheet model was made available for estimation of extreme design rainfalls and the associated uncertainty at any location in the country. Statistics were furthermore computed to classify historical rainfall time series according to the developed regional model, and this makes it possible to assess the uncertainty related with using different historical rain series for simulations at ungauged locations.This research indicates that use of historical point rainfall data at ungauged locations introduces a significant uncertainty that is largely overlooked in today's practice. The engineering recommendation is to select historical rain series based on an evaluation of the local physiographic characteristics (e.g., the mean annual rainfall) and a (pre-defined) desired safety level of the simulations.     

Spatial variability of rainfall: Variations within a single radar pixel

As a part of a Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR) calibration exercise 15 km south of Århus, Denmark, the variability in accumulated rainfall within a single radar pixel (500 by 500 m) was measured using nine high-resolution rain gauges. The measured values indicate up to a 100% variation between neighbouring rain gauges within the pixel over a 4-day period.     

Estimation of sub-hourly DDF curves using scaling properties of hourly and sub-hourly data at partially gauged site

In urban drainage systems, knowledge of short-duration rainfall events can be considered as one of the most critical elements when their hydrological behaviour wants to be investigated. The temporal resolution of rainfall data usually available for practical applications is often lower than the data requested for the design procedures or mathematical models application, greatly affecting their reliability. Moreover, when high resolution rain gauges are available in the catchment, the registration period cannot be sufficiently long for obtaining practically usable statistical analyses. The present study proposes a method for estimating the distribution of sub-hourly extreme rainfalls at sites where data for time interval of interest do not exist, but rainfall data for longer duration are available. The proposed method is based on the “scale-invariance” (or “scaling”) theory whose concepts imply that statistical properties of the extreme rainfall processes for different temporal scales are self-related by a scale-changing operator involving only the scale ratio. The methodology is applied to extreme rainfall data from a rain gauge network within the metropolitan area of Palermo (Italy). Following the application, it is shown that the statistical properties of the rainfall series have a simple scaling property over the range of duration 10 min–24 h. A simple parsimonious analytical formulation for the DDF curves, which embodies the scaling behaviour, is presented.     

几种雨量观测方式比对试验分析

为进一步了解不同雨量观测方式对降水测量的影响,在中国气象局大气探测试验基地进行了几种雨量观测方式的比对试验。本文利用该试验的观测资料,分析了不同雨量计及其不同安装方式对降水测量的影响,并分别给出了各雨量计的测量值。结果表明:降水测量与雨量计的安装方式极其相关,坑式安装测量的雨量值最大,其余依次为双栅、防风圈和平地安装(呈水口高出地面70cm);当前业务观测方式测得的降雨量偏小;降雪测量受风场的影响比液态降水测量更显著。     

雷达雨量计联合估算降水在城市内涝模型中的应用

为了满足城市暴雨内涝模型对面雨量精细化的需求,在天津城市暴雨内涝模型的基础上,将雷达估算降水产品应用到模型面雨量计算中,针对2012年7月25—26日天津的大暴雨过程,考察4种雷达估算降水产品和两种插值方法计算的内涝模型面雨量。经过对比发现,利用变分方法计算的雷达估算降水产品VAR用曲面插值方法计算内涝模型的面雨量整体效果最好。     

Consistency analysis of pluviometric information in Galicia (NW Spain)

An important issue in pluviometric data analysis from rain gauges is the verification of their consistency. In general, this attribute is assessed using double-mass curves. This technique compares cumulative monthly rainfall from a gauge with that averaged from meteorological stations located nearby. The aim of this study was to analyze the quality of monthly rainfall data registered in Galicia (NW Spain) in a five year period (2002–2006). Initially, 159 meteorological stations were evaluated; however, 59 gauges were withdrawn because 10% of their data were missing. Double-mass analysis was performed following two procedures: a) data from each gauge were compared to those obtained in the nearby main station and b) data from each site were compared to the average from five nearby gauges, including data from neighboring regions. The second procedure proved to be more reliable. Rainfall data did not show any outlier for the study period. Determination coefficients were greater than 0.95 in all cases. A graphical analysis showed some deviations from the trend lines in certain stations. First, rainfall maps were obtained by inverse distances weighting. Furthermore, a comprehensive geostatistical analysis, centered in the characterization of the structure of rainfall spatial variability, was performed. Differences between two kriging methods, ordinary and kriging with an external drift, were confirmed, considering the later as a more appropriate technique for rainfall interpolation in the region.     

Statistical evaluation of a radar rainfall system for sewer system management

Urban areas are faced with mounting demands for managing waste and stormwater for a cleaner environment. Rainfall information is a critical component in efficient management of urban drainage systems. A major water quality impact affecting receiving waterbodies is the discharge of untreated waste and stormwater during precipitation, termed wet weather flow. Elimination or reduction of wet weather flow in metropolitan sewer districts is a major goal of environmental protection agencies and often requires considerable capital improvements. Design of these improvements requires accurate rainfall data in conjunction with monitored wastewater flow data. Characterizing the hydrologic/hydraulic performance of the sewer using distant rain gauges can cause oversizing and wasted expenditures. Advanced technology has improved our ability to measure accurately rainfall over large areas. Weather radar, when combined with rain gauge measurements, provides detailed information concerning rainfall intensities over specific watersheds. Knowing how much rain fell over contributing areas during specific periods aids in characterizing inflow and infiltration to sanitary and combined sewers, calibration of sewer system models, and in operation of predictive real-time control measures. Described herein is the design of a system for managing rainfall information for sewer system management, along with statistical analysis of 60 events from a large metropolitan sewer district. Analysis of the lower quartile rainfall events indicates that the expected average difference is 25.61%. Upper quartile rainfall events have an expected average difference of 17.25%. Rain gauge and radar accumulations are compared and evaluated in relation to specific needs of an urban application. Overall, the events analyzed agree to within ± 8% based on the median average difference between gauge and radar.     

利用雷达资料对自动雨量计实时质量控制的方法研究

自动雨量计资料是对降水的直接测量,在流域面雨量计算、气候研究、气象服务等方面具有重要意义。但是,由于风力、蒸发、灌溉、校准、漏斗堵塞、机械故障、信号传输等原因往往造成其存在不同类型的系统误差和随机误差, 自动雨量计数据在定量使用前需要进行质量控制。目前,天气雷达以其高时空分辨率的优势已经成为监测降水的重要手段,本文首先采用两步校准法改善雷达估测降水,然后对雷达—雨量计对之间的差异进行统计学的分析,确定自动雨量计质量控制的一些标准,从而对雨量计进行质量控制。最后用两个降水过程对自动雨量计质量控制的结果进行了检验,结果表明:两步校准法改善了雷达估测降水的系统性偏差,并减小了雨量计站点上的相对误差;可以利用雷达估测降水实现对自动雨量计的实时质量控制,就整个数据集而言,约0.1%的数据被怀疑为误判,误判的自动雨量计主要位于雨带的边缘。但该质量控制算法同时也存在一定的局限性:在雨带的边缘或没有天气雷达覆盖的区域,以及雷达资料存在数据质量问题的情况下,往往会造成对雨量计的误判。     

GRC型雨量器（计）检定仪的研制与应用

雨量器（计）是降水量的主要观测仪器,为保证其测量结果的准确性,对其进行检定或现场校准是非常必要的。文章主要研制既能对雨量器（计）进行室内检定、又能在户外进行现场校准的雨量器（计）检定仪。检定仪采用能够溯源的计量标准球作为标准器,利用蠕动泵对降雨强度进行流速恒定控制,用电源控制器和蓄电池供电,可实现无交流电的户外降水仪器的现场校准。经过试验和应用分析,其性能优于国内同类产品,符合作为量值溯源计量标准的条件,对雨量器（计）的检定和现场校准具有实用性,可用于自动气象站雨量传感器的现场校准。     

Validation of TRMM Precipitation Radar satellite data over Indonesian region

Research has been conducted to validate monthly and seasonal rain rates derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Precipitation Radar (PR) using rain gauge data analysis from 2004 to 2008. The study area employed 20 gauges across Indonesia to monitor three Indonesian regional rainfall types. The relationship of PR and rain gauge data statistical analysis included the linear correlation coefficient, the mean bias error (MBE), and the root mean square error (RMSE). Data validation was conducted with point-by-point analysis and spatial average analysis. The general results of point-by-point analysis indicated satellite data values of medium correlation, while values of MBE and RMSE tended to indicate underestimations with high square errors. The spatial average analysis indicated the PR data values are lower than gauge values of monsoonal and semi-monsoonal type rainfall, while anti-monsoonal type rainfall was overestimated. The validation analysis showed very good correlation with the gauge data of monsoonal type rainfall, high correlation for anti-monsoonal type rainfall, but medium correlation for semi-monsoonal type rainfall. In general, the statistical error level of monthly seasonal monsoonal type conditions is more stable compared to other rainfall types. Unstable correlations were observed in months of high rainfall for semi-monsoonal and anti-monsoonal type rainfall.     

Precipitation measurement with automated tipping-bucket rain gauges

Results of measurement of rainfall intensity and accumulated amounts with an automated tipping-bucket rain gauge based on an updated DZhO M96-8 precipitation gauge are presented. The measurement were carried out in the town of Dolgoprudny (Moscow region) in 2002–2005. The design, data processing algorithm, and calibration of the tipping-bucket rain gauge are described, and estimates of the measurement error are calculated. Examples of tipping-bucket rain gauge measurements in shower and widespread precipitation are given, along with results of analysis of the statistical structure of precipitation by intensity gradations. The measurement results are compared with those of precipitation gauges, the P-2 recording rain gauge, and the AKSOPRI radar complex.     

雷达雨量计资料用于径流模拟(英)

利用测雨雷达结合稠密和稀疏雨量站网估计流域降水分布,将小同方法获得的降水分布输入降水径流模型TOPMODEL,模拟1998,1999夏季GAME/HUBEX试验区梅山和鲇鱼山集水区的径流,并与实测径流进行比较和分析,结果表明:1)雷达结合集水区内雨量计网模拟径流的精度优于传统的用稠密雨量计网模拟径流的精度;2)利用雷达结合集水区外相对稀疏的雨量计网模拟径流的精度和用集水区内稠密雨量计网模拟径流的精度相当,显示了测雨雷达在径流模拟和洪水预报中极大的应用潜力。     

不同雨量计测值误差分析

目前气象部门使用的雨量计,基本上为自动气象站遥测雨量传感器、双翻斗遥测雨量计、虹吸式雨量计和雨量器等几种类型。根据北京朝阳气象站近几年的雨量测量数据,分析了各种雨量计在不同降水情况下所产生误差的原因,分析发现相同工作原理的仪器由于仪器本身的性能差异和不可预见的故障会造成较大测量误差,由于降雨强度突然变化的影响,雨量计产生的测量误差是不可避免的。并提出增加备份仪器、随时仔细观察每一种仪器的变化从而减小误差的建议,为以后降水测量数据的分析提供参考和帮助。     

Climatology and trend analysis of extreme precipitation in subregions of Northeast Brazil

The present paper aims of computing climatology and trend analysis of occurrence and intensity of extreme events of precipitation in subregions of Northeast Brazil (NEB). We used daily rainfall data of 148 rain gauges collected from the hydrometeorological network managed by the National Water Agency during 1972 to 2002 and used quantiles technique in order to select rainfall events. Defining heavy rainfall events as those when at least one rain gauge recorded rainfall above the 95th percentile, normal rainfall was between the 45th and 55th percentiles, and weak rainfall events were under the 5th percentile. The Mann-Kendall nonparametric test was used to calculate the linear trend of the quantity and intensity of rainfall events. The NEB was divided in five subregions using the cluster analysis based on Euclidean distance and Ward’s method: Northern coast, Northern semiarid, Northwest, Southern semiarid, and Southern coast. The results suggest that the subregions are less influenced by El Niño and La Niña, and dry areas have higher variability, with the greatest number of intense events.     

自动与人工观测降雨量的差异及相关性

利用全国627个基准、基本站2005年自动与人工雨量业务观测资料, 分析了业务上自动与人工观测的降雨量的差异以及引起差异的原因, 并分析了自动观测与人工观测的降雨量的相关性。结果表明:自动观测比人工观测的日降雨量平均偏高0.12 mm, 标准差为0.70 mm, 相对偏高1.42%。627个站中, 80%的站自动与人工观测的年降雨量差值在5%以内; 近4%的站年降雨量差值在10%以上。年降雨量相对差值较大的站, 其年降雨量均较小。空间采样差、20:00 (北京时) 定时观测中人工与自动观测时间的不一致以及其他突发事件均会导致自动与人工测量的日降雨量的差异, 甚至显著差异。由于观测仪器不同引起的降雨测量系统误差差别, 导致自动与人工观测降雨量的系统偏差。自动观测与人工观测的日降雨量呈线性相关, 相关系数为0.9988。     

多普勒天气雷达1 h降水产品的质量评估

为评估多普勒天气雷达1 h降水量(OHP)产品在降水预报中的质量, 从南通新一代多普勒天气雷达的体扫资料及其覆盖范围内太湖流域34个雨量站的同期逐小时降水资料中选取了19个降水个例。以空报率、漏报率、准确预报临界指数、平均误差、平均绝对误差和均方根误差等, 为评估降水预报质量的指标。根据雨量站实测日降水量(P)和1 h降水量(P₁)大小分级, 对不同情况下的OHP进行质量评估。结果表明:(1)OHP的空报率和漏报率较高, 导致整体的准确预报临界指数偏低。(2)与不同的P和P₁量级相对应, 不同的OHP预报质量有明显差异。除P<10 mm时和P₁<1 mm时稍有高估外, 其他量级都存在低估, 且随着P的增加, 空报率和漏报率都减小。(3)对2007年9月18日的降水个例分析表明:OHP与实测的落区基本一致, 但降水强度上有偏差。不同站点的雨强偏差不同, 距南通雷达站100 km左右的OHP误差较小。     

基于阈值方法原理的江淮地区降水特性研究

利用江淮地区20个代表站点雨量计连续30年(1980—2009年)的逐日降水资料,基于阈值方法原理对该地区降水特性进行了研究,主要讨论了月平均日降水量与阈值为0.1,1.0,5.0,10.0,24.0,48.0mm/d时降水日数占该月天数比例之间的关系。研究结果表明:各站点及江淮整体月平均日降水量与超过某一阈值降水日数占该月天数的比例之间存在着高度的线性相关关系,相关性随着阈值的不同而变化,在阈值为24.0mm/d时相关性最好,相关系数普遍超过0.97。低阈值时存在着非线性相关。阈值方法具有很多方面的应用,例如能更好地理解降水的形成机制;寻求更好的估测降水的算法;发展更优的数值预报模式的参数化方案;检验各种数值预报模式降水产品等。     

石家庄地区反射率因子垂直廓线特征分析

利用自动雨量计数据整理成的10 min一次的雨量资料和s波段多普勒天气雷达体积扫描强度数据,对石家庄地区2004～2007年4次天气过程的实时雷达反射率因子垂直廓线的特征进行了分析.结果表明:层状云和混合性降水反射率因子垂直廓线有明显的零度层亮带;短时强降水过程的反射率因子垂直廓线不存在零度层亮带.冰雹过程中反射率凼子垂直廓线变化较大,降雹前反射率因子的极大值在中上层,降雹发生时反射率因子的极大值高度下降,降雹后反射率因子的极大值减弱.降雪过程的反射率因子垂直廓线零度层亮带不明显.在石家庄西部山区,由于零度层亮带的影响.对层状云和混合性降水回波强度和降水量估计偏高.对短时强降水过程的地面降水估计用反射率因子垂直廓线的方法比最低仰角法更加准确,在均匀性降水中可较好地改善地面雨量估算结果,有利于在山区和无雨量计的地区判断强对流天气的发生、发展和估算降水量的大小.