A simple model for potential dewfall in an arid region

It is not always easy to know, post-facto, whether both dewfall and fog may have occurred over a given evening period. Instrumentation limitations make it difficult to quantify dew deposition since they rely on artificial sensing surfaces that are either visually examined on a daily basis or recorded. In arid to Mediterranean regions, both dew and fog can play significant ecological roles as suppliers of moisture. Long-term observation records of dew and fog in such regions tend to be limited, however, due partly to a lack of interest and limited distribution of well-instrumented meteorological stations. Simple meteorological criteria are suggested here to calculate potential dewfall and to indicate whether fog was likely to have occurred over a given evening. A field campaign was carried out in the NW Negev desert, Israel, in September and October 1997, to collect meteorological data and carry out dewfall measurements.     

Urban and rural dewfall,surface moisture,and associated canopy-level air temperature and humidity measurements for vancouver,canada

Canopy-level humidity is often less at night during fine weather in a mid-latitude city, compared to its rural surroundings. This feature has been attributed, in part, to reduced urban dew, but links are largely unproven, because urban dew data are rare. In this study, surface moisture (i.e., dew + guttation by blotting) and dewfall (by mini-lysimeter) were measured at rural and urban residential sites in Vancouver, Canada, during the summer of 1996. Air temperature and humidity were measured at both sites, and on rural-to-urban vehicle traverses. Weather and location effects were evident. Humidity data suggested the small (< 1 g m^–3) urban moisture excess observed on fine nights was linked to reduced urban dew. For grass, the frequency of moisture events, and surface moisture amounts, were similar for both sites. However, on grass, rural dewfall (mean=0.10 mm per night) was more than urban dewfall (mean=0.07 mm per night). On the other hand, data for a roof lysimeter (mean dewfall=0.12 mm per night) showed that an urban roof could rival rural grass as a favoured location for dewfall in Vancouver.     

Estimating the maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones

Estimates of the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of tropical cyclones (TC) using different model on the base of in situ measurements are analyzed. Estimates published by other researchers and the ones obtained by the author are used. The inadequacy of model estimates of MPI and the real intensity of TC is registered in a number of cases, that is, first of all, related to the neglect of a number of peculiarities of TC structure and their environment in models, which are available nowadays.     

Estimating the CDM market under the Marrakech Accords

The agreement on implementation of the Kyoto Protocol achieved at COP7 in Marrakech has important implications for investment in greenhouse gas emission reduction projects in developing countries through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The required actual emission reductions for participating Annex B countries overall will be relatively small, as the United States do not intend to ratify the protocol and significant amounts of carbon sequestered in domestic sinks can be credited. In addition, the potential supply of surplus emission permits (hot air) from Russia and other economies in transition may be as high as total demand in the first commitment period. Thus, even under restraint of hot air sellers, CDM demand will be limited, and a low demand, low price carbon market scenario appears likely.The magnitude of the CDM will be influenced by a host of factors both on the demand and the supply-side. We analyse these using a quantitative model of the global carbon market, based on marginal abatement cost curves. Implementation and transaction costs, as well as baseline and additionality rules affect the CDM’s share in the carbon market. Demand for the CDM is sensitive to changes in business-as-usual emissions growth in participating Annex B countries, and also to crediting for additional sinks. Permit supply from Russia and other economies in transition is possibly the most crucial factor in the carbon market.     

Estimating the CDM market under the Marrakech Accords

Abstract

The agreement on implementation of the Kyoto Protocol achieved at COP7 in Marrakech has important implications for investment in greenhouse gas emission reduction projects in developing countries through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The required actual emission reductions for participating Annex B countries overall will be relatively small, as the United States do not intend to ratify the protocol and significant amounts of carbon sequestered in domestic sinks can be credited. In addition, the potential supply of surplus emission permits (hot air) from Russia and other economies in transition may be as high as total demand in the first commitment period. Thus, even under restraint of hot air sellers, CDM demand will be limited, and a low demand, low price carbon market scenario appears likely.

The magnitude of the CDM will be influenced by a host of factors both on the demand and the supply-side. We analyse these using a quantitative model of the global carbon market, based on marginal abatement cost curves. Implementation and transaction costs, as well as baseline and additionality rules affect the CDM's share in the carbon market. Demand for the CDM is sensitive to changes in business-as-usual emissions growth in participating Annex B countries, and also to crediting for additional sinks. Permit supply from Russia and other economies in transition is possibly the most crucial factor in the carbon market.     

Gaussian components of cloud amount frequency distributions

Summary Interannual variability of meteorological conditions produces cloud amount sequences that statistically cannot be regarded as samples from the same population. Consequently in order to treat cloud amount distributions the traditional methods of mathematical statistics are useless. In this paper a method is presented that enables to approximate the cloud amount histograms by means of mixtures of Gaussian components. When a component can be found that is common to the histograms of different years, it may be regarded as a characteristic of a quasistationary cloudiness regime that is induced by stable meteorological conditions above the respective target area during the given period.The procedure to separate a cloud amount frequency distribution into Gaussian components is demonstrated on the basis of an example of March–May cloudiness analysis in the mid-ocean regions of the belt 0°–13.5° S. The monthly mean cloud amount data in the (500 km)² squares have been determined from Nimbus-7 short-wave albedo measurements in 1979–1986. It has been demonstrated that even in the years that are not affected by the El Niño event the interannual variability of the autumn cloud amount histograms is essential at the 95% significance level. But separating the frequency distributions into Gaussian components, a part can be found that is common to all the autumns and, thus, may be regarded as a characteristic of the contemporary climate.With 6 Figures     

Estimating the annual mean screen temperature empirically

Summary We have examined station data from around the world to study the separate effects of the latitude (between 60° N–40° S), elevation and distance inland, on the annual-mean screen temperature. In the first 200–400 km from some west coasts, screen temperatures (after adjustment for elevation) rise inland, reaching a maximum called the ‘thermal-ridge temperature’ Tr. The rise of temperature within this littoral fringe (of width F) depends mainly on the difference between the sea-surface temperature off the west coast and the zonal mean. Further inland than such a fringe, adjusted temperatures generally decline eastwards, approximately linearly, at a rate C. The rate is related to hemisphere and latitude. Empirical relationships between latitude and the observed coastal sea-surface temperature, the near-shore screen temperature, Tr, C and F for each continent are used to estimate annual mean temperatures on land. Independent estimates of this kind for 48 places, using a look-up table, differ overall by only 0.7 K from the actual long-term average annual mean temperatures. This is less than half the error resulting from an assumption of zonal-mean temperatures. Basing estimates on coastal sea-surface temperatures, instead of the look-up table, results in an average error of 1.0 K for the 48 places. The errors are comparable with the standard deviation of annual mean temperatures during 30 years or so. Received March 6, 2001 Revised July 30, 2001     

飑的判断与记录

“飑”是一种较复杂的天气,发生频次较少。本文通过对飑的特征的分析,总结了判断的方法,并结合典型个例分析飑与雷暴过境的区别,对其记录方法加以说明,对观测员正确判断记录有一定的借鉴作用。     

On the relation between cloud cover amount and sunshine duration

Summary The total cloud cover is deduced from measurements of monthly mean averages of the percent of possible sunshine duration at three locations in Egypt, Cairo, Bahtim and Sedi-Barrani stations during the period 1987–1995. This sunshine-derived total cloud cover (C_s) is compared to conventional ground-based observations of total cloud covers (C_g) made by meteorological observers. A linear relationship between the two estimates is calculated, and the difference between the two estimates as a function of C_s and C_g is fitted with a least-squares linear equation. It is found that on the average the sunshine-derived values of total cloud cover are about 7% lower than the corresponding ground-based estimated of total cloud cover. Both of these parameters are mainly used in solar radiation models and the error sources are mainly depending upon the way to describe sky cover.     

Estimating global solar radiation

A model is presented to calculate daily totals of global solar radiation. First, cloudless sky radiation is evaluated from transmission due to absorption and scattering. Cloud effects are added using cloud layer transmission. A simple expression to account for additional radiation due to reflection between the ground surface and cloud bases is also included. Atmospheric transmissions are obtained from previous studies. Precipitable water and observations of cloud type and amount for different layers in the atmosphere are the only meteorological variables required. The model is evaluated and tested with data collected at stations in and around Lake Ontario: a lake station near Grimsby in 1969 and land stations at Burlington, Scarborough, Peterborough, Trenton and Kingston, Ontario in 1972 and 1973 during the International Field Year for the Great Lakes. Good agreement between calculated and measured radiation was obtained at all stations, particularly for 5- and 10-day means. Model performance was largely independent of both cloud amount and season.     

气候噪声和气候系统的分维

根据相空间嵌入定理,按照Grassberger和Procaccia提出的计算分数维的方法,利用近百年来南、北半球地面气温资料,估算了气候吸引子的分数维,计算结果表明：气候吸引子的分数维南半球为3.3～3.7,北半球为3.2～3.7。它提供了气候吸引子的自相似结构的基本信息,表明模似气候系统最少需要4个独立变量。另外,还讨论了气候噪声对估算维数的影响。     

Estimating the convective velocity scale for diffusion applications

A simple mixed layer model is used to derive the following expressions for the maximum (daily) convective velocity scale. w _*m = AQ _m ^1/2; w _*m = Bz _im The variables A and B are shown to vary within narrow limits thus allowing them to be treated as constants. This is very useful for routine computation of w _*m , an important variable for dispersion under unstable conditions, from estimates of either the kinematic surface heat flux Q _m (m^-1) or the maximum mixed layer height z _im .Analysis of observations made during the Minnesota boundary layer experiment shows that there is ample justification for assigning typical values to A and B in estimating w _*m.     

Estimating the PPH-bias for simulations of convective and stratiform clouds

The plane parallel homogeneous (PPH) approximation is known to generate systematic errors in the computation of reflectivity and transmissivity of a horizontally inhomogeneous cloud field. This PPH-bias is determined for two cloud fields, a stratocumulus and a shallow convective cloud scene, which have been simulated using a cloud resolving model. The independent column approximation has been applied as reference and a PPH analogue has been interpolated from the original cloud data. In order to correct for the bias the effective thickness approach (ETA) has been employed. For the two cloud simulations, the corresponding reduction factors have been determined.     

冬小麦耗水量和耗水规律的分析

本文根据1983年10月—1986年6月的试验资料,从产量与耗水量的关系上确定最佳耗水量。同时对籽粒产量、秸秆产量、水分利用效率和灌水费用等进行综合评判,确定最大经济效益的水分处理。并对不同生育阶段的耗水规律进行分析,为田间水分管理和气候评价提供依据。     

用不同气象要素估算蒸发力的模式研究

以实际ＰＥＮＭＡＮ蒸发力作为模拟对象，设计了９种由不同气象要素组合的经验回归模式，用计算机筛选确定统计参数，从中找一些更简化的，可在很大程度上取代ＰＥＮＭＡＮ法的繁琐计算的模式，依此进一步确定实际蒸发量。     

50年一遇最大风速估算

根据榆林气象站1961—2016年逐年及该地区某一风电观测场2007年逐时最大风速资料,在探讨最大风速突变点的基础上,利用极值Ⅰ型分析法及1d、5d设计风速取样法对风电观测场50a一遇最大风速进行估算,同时参考《建筑结构荷载规范》,最终确定风电观测场最大风速的取值。结果表明:榆林气象站历年最大风速有下降趋势,并在1980年发生突变;利用突变点前风电观测场最大风速序列计算的50a一遇风速修正后,得到的结果与建筑结构荷载规范的值相近,可以互相验证,最终确定50a一遇最大风速为25.3m/s,相应风压为0.4kN/m^2。     

Aerodynamic Scaling for Estimating the Mean Height of Dense Canopies

We used an aerodynamic method to objectively determine a representative canopy height, using standard meteorological measurements. The canopy height may change if the tree height is used to represent the actual canopy, but little work to date has focused on creating a standard for determining the representative canopy height. Here we propose the ‘aerodynamic canopy height’ h _a as the most effective means of resolving the representative canopy height for all forests. We determined h _a by simple linear regression between zero-plane displacement d and roughness length z ₀, without the need for stand inventory data. The applicability of h _a was confirmed in five different forests, including a forest with a complex canopy structure. Comparison with stand inventory data showed that h _a was almost equivalent to the representative height of trees composing the crown surface if the forest had a simple structure, or to the representative height of taller trees composing the upper canopy in forests with a complex canopy structure. The linear relationship between d and z ₀ was explained by assuming that the logarithmic wind profile above the canopy and the exponential wind profile within the canopy were continuous and smooth at canopy height. This was supported by observations, which showed that h _a was essentially the same as the height defined by the inflection point of the vertical profile of wind speed. The applicability of h _a was also verified using data from several previous studies.     

Estimating the retrievability of temperature profiles from satellite infrared measurements

A method is developed to assess retrievability, namely the retrieval potential for atmospheric temperature profiles, from satellite infrared measurements in clear-sky conditions. This technique is based upon generalized linear inverse theory and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Utilizing the NCEP global temperature reanalysis data in January and July from 1999 to 2003, the retrievabilities obtained with the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder （AIRS） and the High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder/3 （HIRS/3） sounding channel data are derived respectively for each standard pressure level on a global scale. As an incidental result of this study, the optimum truncation number in the method of generalized linear inverse is deduced too. The results show that the retrievabilities of temperature obtained with the two datasets are similar in spatial distribution and seasonal change characteristics. As for the vertical distribution, the retrievabilities are low in the upper and lower atmosphere, and high between 400 hPa and 850 hPa. For the geographical distribution, the retrievabilities are low in the low-latitude oceanic regions and in some regions in Antarctica, and relatively high in mid-high latitudes and continental regions. Compared with the HIRS/3 data, the retrievability obtained with the AIRS data can be improved by an amount between 0.15 and 0.40.