Hubbert’s Legacy: A Review of Curve-Fitting Methods to Estimate Ultimately Recoverable Resources

A growing number of commentators are forecasting a near-term peak and subsequent terminal decline in the global production of conventional oil as a result of the physical depletion of the resource. These forecasts frequently rely on the estimates of the ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of different regions, obtained through the use of curve-fitting to historical trends in discovery or production. Curve-fitting was originally pioneered by M. King Hubbert in the context of an earlier debate about the future of the US oil production. However, despite their widespread use, curve-fitting techniques remain the subject of considerable controversy. This article classifies and explains these techniques and identifies both their relative suitability in different circumstances and the level of confidence that may be placed in their results. This article discusses the interpretation and importance of the URR estimates, indicates the relationship between curve fitting and other methods of estimating the URR and classifies the techniques into three groups. It then investigates each group in turn, indicating their historical origins, contemporary application and major strengths and weaknesses. The article then uses illustrative data from a number of oil-producing regions to assess whether these techniques produce consistent results as well as highlight some of the statistical issues raised and suggesting how they may be addressed. The article concludes that the applicability of curve-fitting techniques is more limited than adherents claim and that the confidence bounds on the results are wider than usually assumed.     

Peak Oil: Testing Hubbert’s Curve via Theoretical Modeling

A theoretical model of conventional oil production has been developed. The model does not assume Hubbert’s bell curve, an asymmetric bell curve, or a reserve-to-production ratio method is correct, and does not use oil production data as an input. The theoretical model is in close agreement with actual production data until the 1979 oil crisis, with an R ² value of greater than 0.98. Whilst the theoretical model indicates that an ideal production curve is slightly asymmetric, which differs from Hubbert’s curve, the ideal model compares well with the Hubbert model, with R ² values in excess of 0.95. Amending the theoretical model to take into account the 1979 oil crisis, and assuming the ultimately recoverable resources are in the range of 2–3 trillion barrels, the amended model predicts conventional oil production to peak between 2010 and 2025. The amended model, for the case when the ultimately recoverable resources is 2.2 trillion barrels, indicates that oil production peaks in 2013.     

Experimental Analysis of the Dynamic Effects of Coal–Gas Outburst and a Protean Contraction and Expansion Flow Model

Natural Resources Research - As one of the most serious dynamic disasters in underground coal mining, coal–gas outburst (CGO) leads to very high casualties and economic losses. To research...     

Hubbert’s petroleum production model: an evaluation and implications for World Oil Production Forecasts

Following Hubberts successful prediction of the timing of US peak oil production, Hubberts model has been used extensively to predict peak oil production elsewhere. However, forecasts of world and regional peak oil and natural gas production using Hubberts methodology usually have failed, leading to the implicit belief that such predictions always will fail and that we need not worry about finite resources. A careful examination of Hubberts approach indicates that the most important reasons for his success in the US were stable markets, the high growth rate of demand, ready availability of low cost imports, and a reasonable estimate of easily extractable reserves. This analysis also shows that his model cannot predict ultimate oil reserves and that it should be considered an econometric model. Building on Hubberts vital insight, that cheap fossil fuel reserves are knowable and finite, one can state that for world peak oil production, political constraints should be much more important than resource constraints.     

Changes in China’s Grain Production Pattern and the Effects of Urbanization and Dietary Structure

Grain production patterns are the basis of a nation’s food security. Since China’s reform and opening-up began in 1978, China’s urbanization process, driven by rapid social and economic development, has accelerated steadily. During this time, the dietary structure of urban and rural Chinese has also changed significantly. Accordingly, grain production patterns have undergone major changes. First, traditional grain production patterns in the north and the south have changed, and the food production center has shifted toward the north. In 1980, the grain yield of southern provinces accounted for 60% of China’s total, while that of northern provinces accounted for 40%. In 2015, the grain yield of southern provinces accounted for 56% of the total, while that of northern provinces accounted for 44%. Second, grain production by regions of the country is “shrinking in the east but expanding in the central regions,” meaning that grain production in eastern coastal provinces has decreased significantly, while that in the central region has expanded. The proportions of the nation’s total grain production from the eastern, central and western regions were 38%, 36% and 26%, respectively, in 1980. These had changed to 27%, 46%, and 27%, respectively, in 2015. Third, the spatial centralization of grain production has increased. The total grain yield of 13 major grain-producing provinces and regions in the country accounted for 69.27% of nation’s total in 1980, and it had reached 76.18% in 2015, showing that the impact of major grain-producing areas on national food security has increased. The influence of rapid urbanization on grain production areas shows remarkable regional differences. As the level of urbanization has increased, build-up land occupies a large number of high-quality farmland, especially in east coastal provinces and thus the grain planting area decreased obviously. The effect of dietary structure changes on grain production patterns was evident in two ways. On the one hand, as dietary diversity has increased, total grain consumption has decreased. The reduction in the proportion of planting area for grain crops to total crop planting area dropped from 82% in 1980 to 68% in 2015, making this change in total grain consumption evident. On the other hand, the ratio of grain for human consumption declined as the ratio of grain consumed by animals increased. The reduction in the proportion of rice and wheat grown and an increase in the proportion of feed grain production (mostly maize) from 20% in the 1980s to 36% in 2015 makes this change in grain production and consumption evident. In the future, with the establishment of national functional areas for grain production, the spatial pattern of grain production will return, while the demand for feed grains will continue to increase but with the space for expansion limited.     

Professor Just Gjessing: ‘A journey with a purpose’

Based on a commemorative speech given at the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters on 9 February 2006, the article provides an account of the geographical career of Professor Just Gjessing at the University of Oslo from 1950 until his death in 2005.     

Making a Mark: a computational and visual analysis of one researcher’s intellectual domain

Dr. David Mark is widely regarded as a path-breaking researcher in geographic information science. What are the structural and temporal characteristics of his intellectual contributions, as seen through the eyes of the broader academic community? Aiming to answer that question, this article presents a scientometric analysis of publications that have been cited alongside David Mark’s papers. In deliberate contrast to the widespread focus on using citation data to condense scientific impact into a handful of indicators, the methodological contribution of this study lies in its mix of computational and visualization approaches. In the search for latent domain structures, state-of-the-art practices in information science, bibliometrics, and network visualization are combined and extended. An initial network of 50,000+ publications and 4,000,000+ document co-citations undergoes a series of transformations reducing it to 9000 publications that are then clustered in a two-stage process, leading to 678 communities whose co-citation linkages are used to delineate 19 super-communities. To enable replication of this approach for other studies, much focus in this article is on detailed discussion of that workflow as well as on highlighting the reasoning behind the choices made among data sources and analytical methods. The topical evolution of David Mark’s domain of influence is explored in some detail, based on tabular and graphic representations of extracted community structures. Results confirm not only the enormous overall breadth of his influence but also how lasting and recurrent it has been in some areas.     

Model employers and model cities?: Bangalore’s public sector and the rise of the neoliberal city

Bangalore is held up as a model for how cities, particularly in the global south, should develop in the globalized information age, in which entrepreneurs with new access to international capital fuel service-sector-driven development. Expanding market forces cultivate cities of skilled middle-class workers whose increased consumption generates broad developmental benefits. Now known as the “Silicon Valley of India,” Bangalore was previously the capital of India’s public sector enterprises (PSEs), which laid important groundwork for the city of today, including the IT sector. I show how, by providing access to homeownership along with high wages and benefits tied to secure employment, Bangalore’s PSEs created the foundation for the city today and its middle-class character. The skilled workforce that PSEs created helped the IT sector emerge in the city. By examining this erased history, we see the role of the state in development projects, and consider alternative models for urban change.     

Research on China’s high-grade highway design index of asphalt pavement with granular base

Based on the 2006 Chinese asphalt pavement deflection value design index, we used KENLAYER Pavement Analysis and Design software and 1stOpt statistical analysis software to carry on the nonlinear regression, this paper establish high-grade highway design equations for the compressive strain of soil sub-base top (CSSBT) and the radial compressive stress of semi-rigid base top (RCSRBT). The correlation coefficients inspection standard to get precise proof, which means that our granular base design equations have high credibility and can be used in the Chinese design index of asphalt pavement with granular base (APGB).     

Are Australia’s suburbs swamped by Asians and Muslims? Countering political claims with data

Recent decades have seen substantial growth across many developed-world countries of right-wing populist political parties whose policies oppose immigration and multiculturalism as threats to the majority way of life there. These are exemplified in Australia by Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party, which was successful at elections there at the turn of the twenty-first century and again in 2016. Part of this party’s rhetoric focuses on the geography of immigrant groups in Australia’s cities, with claims that their members live in ghettos. Is that factually correct? Using data from the 2011 Australian census this paper analyses the distribution of Asians and Muslims (the two groups picked out by One Nation and its leader) at four spatial scales within the country’s 11 largest urban areas. It finds no evidence at all of intensive residential segregation of Muslims, and although there are concentrations of Asians—notably in Sydney and Melbourne—most residents claiming Asian ancestry live in neighbourhoods and suburbs where they form a minority (in many cases a small minority) only of the local population.     

Evaluation of the SNOWPACK model’s metamorphism and microstructure in Canada: a case study

The snow thermodynamic multi-layer model SNOWPACK was developed to address the risk of avalanches by simulating the vertical properties of snow. Risk and stability assessments are based on the simulation of the vertical variability of snow microstructure, as well as on snow cohesion parameters. Previous research has shown systematic error in grain size simulations (equivalent optical grain size) over several areas in northern Canada. To quantify the simulated errors in snow grain size and uncertainties in stability, the snow specific surface area (SSA) was measured with a laser-based instrument. Optical grain size was retrieved to validate the optical equivalent grain radius from SNOWPACK. The two study plots are located in Glacier National Park, BC, and Jasper National Park, AB, Canada. Profiles for density and stratigraphic analysis were obtained as well as grain size profiles, combined with snow micropenetrometer (SMP) measurements. Density analysis showed good agreement with the simulated values (R² = 0.76). Optical grain size analysis showed systematic overestimation of the modeled values, in agreement with the current literature. The error in SSA evolution for a rounding environment was mostly constant, whereas error for conditions driven by a temperature gradient was linked to the size of the facetted grains.     

Macau’s role as a recreation/tourist center in the Pearl River Delta city-region

The return of Macau to Chinese sovereignty in 1999 brought far-reaching change to Macau as a special administrative region (SAR). China’s policy and plans for a revitalized Macau as a key urban node offers an opportunity to conceptualize a leading role for Macau as the pre-eminent recreational and tourist center in the dynamic and globally connected Pearl River Delta city-region. We examine and assess the new policies that have led to Las Vegas-style casinos bringing explosive growth in visitors, gambling revenues, and Macau’s economy. New problems of corruption, crime, and social pathologies have appeared as well owing in part to the secretive VIP gambling centers for high rollers from the mainland. Has Macau met China’s goals and expectations for a great tourist and recreational center? Our findings indicate a mixed record with more challenges emerging in the wake of China’s recent anti-corruption campaign.     

Toward Equal Opportunity of Primary Education: Introducing a Lottery into China’s Proximity-Based Enrollment System

A serious spatial inequality of educational opportunity in school enrollment persists worldwide. The use of random mechanisms in school allocation might improve spatial equality, with lotteries applied in some choice-based systems. China uses a proximity-based assignment, yet the optimization of spatial equality of educational opportunity by introducing a lottery has received little consideration. To achieve the maximum spatial equality of educational opportunity, in this study, a random proximity-based model was developed, and the swarm optimization method was used to solve the model. A case study in the Shijingshan district of Beijing was used to illustrate the model outputs. For comparison, a proximity-based model was also developed and solved. After introducing a lottery into a proximity-based enrollment system, the spatial disparity of educational opportunity was reduced by 70 percent. The average travel distance to school increased 3.5-fold but was still much less than the actual average distance of 4.3?km. Relaxing the maximum travel distance constraint could significantly improve spatial inequality. Although total equality was significantly improved, only 51 percent of students benefited from increased opportunities, which implies that the model could be adopted in a centralized institutional context, such as China, but might be ineffective in a democratic system.     

Searching for a new dynamic of industrialization and urbanization: anatomy of China’s characteristic town program

The characteristic town program is one of China’s latest industrialization and urbanization strategies. Originating in Zhejiang, characteristic towns are expected to serve as platforms for industrial upgrading and the promotion urbanization. This paper attempts to analyze the characteristic town program by examining the reasons behind the origination of characteristic towns, as well as elucidating the towns’ components. The paper argues that this exploratory local program has been leveraged into a national-level strategy because the primary idea underlying characteristic towns has been in accordance with several of China’s critical policies. Furthermore, the paper presents the challenges that the characteristic town program has encountered. The characteristic town program can be viewed as a new effort of entrepreneurial governments and a spatial fix for capital during the period of industrial upgrading. This paper helps us to better understand one of China’s explorations in searching for a new dynamic of industrialization and urbanization.     

Comparison of ecosystem services provided by grasslands with different utilization patterns in China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

Although several previous studies in Inner Mongolia examined the effects of ecological conservation on the delivery of ecosystem services, they were often limited in scope (few ecosystem services were assessed) and often suffered from confounding by spatial variation. In this study, we examined the impact of conservation measures (changes in grassland utilization patterns) on the provision of selected ecosystem services in three types of grasslands (meadow steppe in Hulun Buir, typical steppe in Xilin Gol, and semi-desert steppe in Ordos) in Inner Mongolia. We examined five utilization patterns: no use (natural grasslands), light use, moderate use, intensive use, and recovery sites (degraded sites protected from further use). Through household surveys and vegetation and soil surveys, we measured the differences in ecosystem services among the different grassland utilization patterns. We also identified spatial factors that confounded the quantification of ecosystem services in different types of grasslands. We found that light use generally provided high levels of ecosystem services in meadow steppe and typical steppe, with the main differences in the supporting ecosystem services. Surprisingly, we found no consistently positive impacts of strict conservation activities across the sites, since the results varied spatially and with respect to differences in the land-use patterns. Our study suggests that appropriate grassland utilization patterns can enhance the supply of ecosystem services and reduce negative effects on both household livelihoods and the environment.     

Modelling the impacts of cropland displacement on potential cereal production with four levels of China’s administrative boundaries

Cropland displacement, as an important characteristic of cropland change, places more emphasis on changes in spatial location than on quantity. The effects of cropland displacement on global and regional food production are of general concern in the context of urban expansion. Few studies have explored scale-effects, however, where cropland is displaced not only within, but also outside, the administrative boundary of a certain region. This study used a spatially explicit model (LANDSCAPE) to simulate the potential cropland displacement caused by urban land expansion from 2020 to 2040 at four scales of the Chinese administration system (national, provincial, municipal, and county levels). The corresponding changes in potential cereal production were then assessed by combining cereal productivity data. The results show that 4700 km² of cropland will be occupied by urban expansion by 2040, and the same amount of cropland will be supplemented by forest, grassland, wetland, and unused land. The potential loss of cropland will result in the loss of 3.838×10⁶ tons of cereal production, and the additional cropland will bring 3.546×10⁶ tons, 3.831×10⁶ tons, 3.836×10⁶ tons, and 3.528×10⁶ tons of potential cereal production in SN (national scale), SP (provincial scale), SM (municipal scale), and SC (county scale), respectively. Both SN and SC are observed to make a huge difference in cereal productivity between the lost and the supplemented cropland. We suggest that China should focus on the spatial allocation of cropland during large-scale displacement, especially at the national level.     

Comparison of LLNF,ANN, and COA-ANN Techniques in Modeling the Uniaxial Compressive Strength and Static Young’s Modulus of Limestone of the Dalan Formation

Natural Resources Research - The uniaxial compressive strength and static Young’s modulus are among the key design parameters typically used in geotechnical engineering projects. In this...     

Limnogeology in Brazil’s “forgotten wilderness”: a synthesis from the large floodplain lakes of the Pantanal

Sediment records from floodplain lakes have a large and commonly untapped potential for inferring wetland response to global change. The Brazilian Pantanal is a vast, seasonally inundated savanna floodplain system controlled by the flood pulse of the Upper Paraguay River. Little is known, however, about how floodplain lakes within the Pantanal act as sedimentary basins, or what influence hydroclimatic variables exert on limnogeological processes. This knowledge gap was addressed through an actualistic analysis of three large, shallow (<5 m) floodplain lakes in the western Pantanal: Lagoa Gaíva, Lagoa Mandioré and Baia Vermelha. The lakes are dilute (CO₃ ²⁻ > Si⁴⁺ > Ca²⁺), mildly alkaline, freshwater systems, the chemistries and morphometrics of which evolve with seasonal flooding. Lake sills are bathymetric shoals marked by siliciclastic fans and marsh vegetation. Flows at the sills likely undergo seasonal reversals with the changing stage of the Upper Paraguay River. Deposition in deeper waters, typically encountered in proximity to margin-coincident topography, is dominated by reduced silty-clays with abundant siliceous microfossils and organic matter. Stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen, plus hydrogen index measured on bulk organic matter, suggest that contributions from algae (including cyanobacteria) and other C₃-vegetation dominate in these environments. The presence of lotic sponge spicules, together with patterns of terrigenous sand deposition and geochemical indicators of productivity, points to the importance of the flood pulse for sediment and nutrient delivery to the lakes. Flood-pulse plumes, waves and bioturbation likewise affect the continuity of sedimentation. Short-lived radioisotopes indicate rates of 0.11–0.24 cm year⁻¹ at sites of uninterrupted deposition. A conceptual facies model, developed from insights gained from modern seasonal processes, can be used to predict limnogeological change when the lakes become isolated on the floodplain or during intervals associated with a strengthened flood pulse. Amplification of the seasonal cycle over longer time scales suggests carbonate, sandy lowstand fan and terrestrial organic matter deposition during arid periods, whereas deposition of lotic sponges, mixed aquatic organic matter, and highstand deltas characterizes wet intervals. The results hold substantial value for interpreting paleolimnological records from floodplain lakes linked to large tropical rivers with annual flooding cycles.     

Urban migrant women’s everyday food insecurity coping strategies foster alternative urban imaginaries of a more democratic food system

Urban migrant women worldwide utilize a creative combination of food insecurity coping strategies to procure food for themselves and their families. Using in-depth interviews with 72 migrant women in Medellín, Colombia, and Washington, DC, this paper argues that in low-income urban communities these everyday strategies can further their demands for autonomy in determining what foods they produce and consume. Relying on feminist geography and food sovereignty literature, this research explores how migrant women living in poverty rely on informal networks for growing and sharing food, seek out organic, fresh foods, and utilize independent survival strategies to counter exclusionary rhetoric and a food system they view as unhealthy. In doing so, they devise alternative urban imaginaries of a more democratic food system. This research contributes a more nuanced understanding of the food insecurity experiences of urban migrant women.