Cumulative probability functions and their role in evaluating the chronology of geomorphological events during the Holocene

Cumulative probability functions (CPFs) for large numbers of radiocarbon age determinations are increasingly being used by scientists as a methodology to discern environmental histories. While the recent compilation of regional databases of the radiocarbon dating control for fluvial sediment sequences has been beneficial for identifying gaps in knowledge and stimulating new research, there are a number of problems that critically undermine the use of these CPFs as sensitive hydroclimatic proxies. (i) The CPF method is underpinned by the assumption that each radiocarbon measurement is a true age estimate for a point in time, whereas each measured age in fact forms a scatter around the true age of the sample; (ii) calibration of radiocarbon ages is responsible for much of the structure in CPFs and compounds the problem of scatter and smears the chronological control; (iii) the databases incorporate multiple types of environmental changes differing chronological relationships between the ¹⁴C measurements and the dated events, with pre‐dating, dating or post‐dating chronological control each displaying variable length temporal lags all mixed together in the same analysis; and (iv) the radiocarbon ages from individual case studies need to be more robustly tested before being incorporated into regional databases. All these factors negate the value of CPFs as sensitive proxies of environmental change, because peaks in probability for individual radiocarbon measurements are likely to be an incorrect estimate for the age of a geomorphological event and this problem is compounded by combining probabilities for multiple unrelated events. In this paper we present a critical analysis of CPFs and their interpretation before suggesting alternative approaches to analysing radiocarbon geochronologies of geomorphic events, which include: (i) Bayesian age modelling of river terrace development; (ii) developing regional databases that test specific geomorphic hypotheses; (iii) Bayesian age modelling of palaeoflood records; and (iv) analysis of sedimentation rates. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Can rapidly accumulating Holocene peat profiles provide sub‐decadal resolution proxy climate data?

To test the potential for developing sub‐decadal resolution records of ombrotrophic bog surface wetness (BSW), selected abrupt climate events were identified in cores from four sites in north‐west Europe and time‐slices over each event were investigated at 2–5‐mm resolution using peat humification, testate amoeba and plant macrofossil analyses. Age–depth models based on radiocarbon, spheroidal carbonaceous particle and tephra dates were applied and the error in these models was used to determine the effective temporal sampling resolution, which in most cases was sub‐decadal. Fine‐resolution results revealed some inconsistencies in the co‐variability of individual proxies and there was a lack of correspondence between some results from adjacent cores. However, we found evidence of abrupt shifts in BSW occurring over ca. 5–20 years, indicating a more rapid proxy response than identified in previous research. To maximize potential temporal resolution and produce reliable sub‐decadal BSW data in future research, we recommended that peat‐based studies should obtain the best possible chronological control, focus on sites with high species diversity and rapid accumulation rates and perform replicate coring, or use open peat sections where the stratigraphy can be clearly seen, to assess intra‐site differences in microtopography. Site‐specific factors should be a primary consideration in the selection of sites for future fine‐resolution research. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Incorporating conceptual and interpretation uncertainty to mineral prospectivity modelling

Prospectivity analyses are used to reduce the exploration search space for locating areas prospective for mineral deposits.The scale of a study and the type of mineral system associated with the deposit control the evidence layers used as proxies that represent critical ore genesis processes.In particular,knowledge-driven approaches(fuzzy logic)use a conceptual mineral systems model from which data proxies represent the critical components.These typically vary based on the scale of study and the type of mineral system being predicted.Prospectivity analyses utilising interpreted data to represent proxies for a mineral system model inherit the subjectivity of the interpretations and the uncertainties of the evidence layers used in the model.In the case study presented,the prospectivity for remobilised nickel sulphide(NiS)in the west Kimberley,Western Australia,is assessed with two novel techniques that objectively grade interpretations and accommodate alternative mineralisation scenarios.Exploration targets are then identified and supplied with a robustness assessment that reflects the variability of prospectivity value for each location when all models are considered.The first technique grades the strength of structural interpretations on an individual line-segment basis.Gradings are obtained from an objective measure of feature evidence,which is the quantification of specific patterns in geophysical data that are considered to reveal underlying structure.Individual structures are weighted in the prospectivity model with grading values correlated to their feature evidence.This technique allows interpreted features to contribute prospectivity proportional to their strength in feature evidence and indicates the level of associated stochastic uncertainty.The second technique aims to embrace the systemic uncertainty of modelling complex mineral systems.In this approach,multiple prospectivity maps are each generated with different combinations of confidence values applied to evidence layers to represent the diversity of processes potentially leading to ore deposition.With a suite of prospectivity maps,the most robust exploration targets are the locations with the highest prospectivity values showing the smallest range amongst the model suite.This new technique offers an approach that reveals to the modeller a range of alternative mineralisation scenarios while employing a sensible mineral systems model,robust modelling of prospectivity and significantly reducing the exploration search space for Ni.     

The Loess/Paleosol record and the nature of the younger Dryas climate in central China

The use of latest Pleistocene-Holocene paleosols in defining Chinese climatic sequences is plagued by poor chronological controls caused primarily by the use of radiocarbon dates derived from bulk soil carbon. Dating of a post-glacial aeolian/paleosol sequence in the Pigeon Mountain basin of north-central China, using culturally deposited charcoal, support a wide array of other data suggesting the Younger Dryas was a period of cooler dryer conditions marked by wide-spread aeolian deposition. Periods of soil formation and higher lake levels bracket this climatic event. Climatic variability immediately before, during and immediately after the Younger Dryas interval is associated with rapid technological elaboration and innovation in the production and use of chipped stone tools, and perhaps, ground stone. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Pleistocene geochronologies for fluvial sedimentary sequences: an archaeologist's perspective

Current models of Pleistocene fluvial system development and dynamics are assessed from the perspective of European Lower and Middle Palaeolithic stone tool assemblages recovered from fluvial secondary contexts. Fluvial activity is reviewed both in terms of Milankovitch‐scale processes across the glacial/interglacial cycles of the Middle and Late Pleistocene, and in response to sub‐Milankovitch scale, high‐frequency, low‐magnitude climatic oscillations. The chronological magnitude of individual phases of fluvial activity is explored in terms of radiocarbon‐dated sequences from the Late Glacial and early Holocene periods. It is apparent that fluvial activity is associated with periods of climatic transition, both high and low magnitude, although system response is far more universal in the case of the high magnitude glacial/interglacial transitions. Current geochronological tools do not permit the development of high‐resolution sequences for Middle Pleistocene sediments, while localised erosion and variable system responses do not facilitate direct comparison with the ice core records. However, Late Glacial and early Holocene sequences indicate that individual fluvial activity phases are relatively brief in duration (e.g. 10² and 10³ yr). From an archaeological perspective, secondary context assemblages can only be interpreted in terms of a floating geochronology, although the data also permit a reinvestigation of the problems of artefact reworking. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic hazard assessment under complex source size distribution of mining-induced seismicity

It is well-documented that a variety of factors controlling the rockmass fracturing process in mines often results in a complexity of mining event size distribution. In such cases, the estimation of the probability functions of source size parameterizations, with the use of presently known distribution models, brings about an unacceptable and systematic over- or underestimation of the seismic hazard parameters. It is, therefore, recommended that the non-parametric, kernel estimators of the event size distribution functions, be applied to stationary hazard studies in mining seismicity.These data-driven estimators, adapted to seismic source size characterization, accurately fit all kinds of data underlying distributions, regardless of their complexity. Recently, the non-parametric approach to size characterization was supported by a special method of uncertainty analysis based on resampling techniques. At present, it is a fully developed method, which provides point and interval estimates of size distribution functions and related hazard parameters. Two examples of its use in studying mining seismic data are presented and discussed in this paper. The analyzed data sets were recorded in two different copper mines in Poland. The smoothed bootstrap test for multimodality, which is a specialized tool for investigating the shapes of probability densities, provided highly significant proof that in both cases the probability densities of source size parameterization were complex thus implied the superiority of the non-parametric estimation to the classic, model-based approach in the studied cases. The data were then used to construct non-parametric, kernel estimates of the source size cumulative distribution function (CDF), the exceedance probability and the mean return period. Furthermore, confidence intervals for these quantities were also estimated. The intervals for CDF were narrow, showing that the procedures of non-parametric estimation and resampling based uncertainty analysis were precise. Due to the fact that the mean return period is very sensitive to values of the CDF, in particular for larger events sizes, the uncertainty of the return period estimates was not insignificant but remained manageable. The point and interval estimates of source size CDF and hazard parameters so obtained were compared with the respective point estimates achieved from the inappropriate in the case of complex magnitude distributions, model-based approach.     

Bayesian methods applied to the interpretation of multiple OSL dates: high precision sediment ages from Old Scatness Broch excavations,Shetland Isles

In this paper, we illustrate the ways in which Bayesian statistical techniques may be used to enhance chronological resolution when applied to a series of OSL sediment dates. Such application can achieve an optimal chronological model by incorporating stratigraphic and age information. The application to luminescence data is not straightforward owing to the sources of uncertainty in each date, and here we present one solution to overcoming these difficulties, and introduce the concept of “unshared systematic” errors. Using OSL sediment dates from the site of Old Scatness Broch, Shetland Isles, UK, many measured with a high degree of precision, we illustrate some of the ways in which Bayesian techniques may be applied, as a tool for assessing systematic errors when combined with independent chronological information, and to determine the optimum chronological information for specific events and contexts. We provide a detailed procedure for the application of Bayesian methods to OSL dates using the widely available radiocarbon calibration programme OxCal.     

Radiocarbon reservoir age of high latitude North Atlantic surface water during the last deglacial

The radiocarbon reservoir age of high latitude North Atlantic Ocean surface water is essential for linking the continental and marine climate records, and is expected to vary according to changes in North Atlantic deep water (NADW) production. Measurements from this region also provide important input and/or tests of oceanic radiocarbon using 3-D global ocean circulation models. Here, we present a surface water radiocarbon reservoir age record of the high latitude western North Atlantic for the deglacial period via the use of fossil cold-water corals growing in waters that are rapidly exchanged with nearby surface waters. The reservoir age of high latitude North Atlantic surface waters was computed from the radiocarbon age difference between our radiocarbon calibration record (http://radiocarbon.LDEO.columbia.edu) and our marine radiocarbon data. ²³⁰Th/²³⁴U/²³⁸U dates provide the absolute coral ages. Our high latitude North Atlantic Ocean reservoir age data combined with recalculated reservoir ages based on published coexisting terrestrial and marine material and Vedde ash radiocarbon dates from central and eastern North Atlantic show modern values (380±140 year, n=14) during the Bolling and Allerod warm period and a 200 year increase in reservoir age (590±130 year, n=10) during the entire Younger Dryas (YD) cold episode. The reservoir age then decreased to 270±20 year (n=2) at the Preboreal/YD transition, although the dates are too sparse for us to be confident in this estimate. We are not able to resolve the timing of the transition to increased reservoir ages from the mid-Allerod to the YD due to the relatively small change and correspondingly large uncertainty in the estimates. The atmospheric Δ¹⁴C record derived from our atmospheric radiocarbon record displays a 40 per mil increase from 12,900 to 12,650 cal years BP, coincident with the shift to high reservoir ages in the early YD cold event. Intrusion of ¹⁴C depleted Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) to the high latitude North Atlantic and reduction of NADW formation are possible causes for the coincident shift to high reservoir ages in the North Atlantic surface ocean and increased atmospheric Δ¹⁴C during the beginning of the YD event.     

Sensitivity of the Eastern Mediterranean geomorphic system towards environmental change during the Late Holocene: a chronological perspective

Alluvial and colluvial sediment deposition provide a vital record of environmental change during the Holocene. Firm chronological control on these archives is necessary to enable us to relate sediment dynamics to human activity and climate variability. In the Eastern Mediterranean, such relationships are hard to establish due to the lack of spatially well‐distributed sediment archives with good chronological control. This scarcity is problematic with respect to regional‐scale reconstructions of the temporal variation of sediment dynamics. Here, we present a radiocarbon database (n = 178) of geomorphological activity collected from multiple distinct sediment archives within the territory of Sagalassos in south‐western Turkey. The data were grouped according to their sedimentary facies for analysis using cumulative probability distributions (CPDs) and sedimentation rate (SR) modelling. Two small‐scale colluvial valleys, where chronological information was abundant, were investigated in more detail. Results show that sedimentation chronology differs between individual, nearby cores, as it depends strongly on the local geomorphic situation. A generalizing approach combining multiple core results yields more widely valid conclusions. High sedimentation rates coincided with the initial major anthropogenic disturbance of the landscape and decreased afterwards, probably due to hillslope soil depletion. CPD and SR analysis indicates that in general colluvial sedimentation rates did not change much from 2000 BC onwards. River floodplain sedimentation, in contrast, increased markedly during the first millennium BC and during recent times, and a significant time lag in enhanced sediment deposition between the upper and lower reaches of the river valleys was observed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multiproxy late Holocene peat records from Ireland: towards a regional palaeoclimate curve

Two new peat‐based climate records from Ireland covering the late Holocene are presented. The sequences are dated by a strong chronological framework formed by AMS radiocarbon dates and SCPs. Three proxy indicators (testate amoebae, macrofossils and humification) have been determined allowing the limitations and strengths of each to be identified and utilised to provide a bog surface wetness (BSW) record for both sites. Age–depth models take into account the potential for accumulation rates to vary with bog vegetation. The records from each site have been used to derive a combined BSW record that displays changes to a wetter/cooler climate from ca. AD 30 (1920 BP), ca. AD 310 (1640 BP), ca. AD 805 (1145 BP), ca. AD 1040 (910 BP) and ca. AD 1300 (650 BP). Changes follow closely those identified in a northern Britain composite BSW record and largely correspond with lake‐level data in central France suggesting the main changes in water balance were coherent over a large region. Correspondence with increases in IRD and slower Iceland‐Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW) suggests that these changes were related to oceanic forcing influencing the track of dominant westerly air flow over Ireland. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The magnitude of error in conventional bulk-sediment radiocarbon dates from central North America

Although the carbon-reservoir problem with bulk-sediment radiocarbon dates from lakes has long been recognized, many synoptic studies continue to use chronologies derived from such dates. For four sites in central North America, we evaluate chronologies based on conventional radiocarbon dates from bulk sediment versus chronologies based on accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dates from terrestrial plant macrofossils. The carbon-reservoir error varies among sites and temporally at individual sites from 0 to 8000 yr. An error of 500–2000 yr is common. This error has important implications for the resolution of precise event chronologies.     

基于Monte Carlo模拟的三维剖面地质界线不确定性分析

三维剖面地质界线是构建三维地质结构模型的重要基础数据,其不确定性会影响三维模型的几何形态和属性分布。以单一分布为假设前提的统计学不确定性分析方法掩盖了其他概率分布特征对模型的影响。突破单一误差分布条件的假设前提,本文使用Monte Carlo方法模拟了不同概率分布情况下地质剖面数据中地质界线的抽样采集,以及地质界线空间分布的不确定性;依托地质界线空间位置与地质属性的耦合关系,提出了用地质属性概率分布实现地质界线空间不确定性的定量可视化,并结合实际地质剖面探讨了多种概率分布条件下地质界线的空间不确定性。实例研究表明,基于Monte Carlo模拟的不确定性分析方法可以突破单一误差分布假设条件,结合地质属性概率可充分揭示出建模数据的内在不确定性与模型外在要素形态之间的耦合关系。     

North European last glacial–interglacial transition (LGIT; 15–9 ka) tephrochronology: extended limits and new events

High‐precision correlation of palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental records is crucial for testing hypotheses of synchronous change. Although radiocarbon is the traditional method for dating late Quaternary sedimentary sequences, particularly during the last glacial–interglacial transition (LGIT; 15–9 ka), there are inherent problems with the method, particularly during periods of climate change which are often accompanied by major perturbations in atmospheric radiocarbon content. An alternative method is the use of tephras that act as time‐parallel marker horizons. Within Europe, numerous volcanic centres are known to have erupted during the LGIT, providing considerable potential for high‐precision correlation independent of past radiocarbon fluctuations. Here we report the first identification of the Vedde Ash and Askja Tephra in Ireland, significantly extending the known provenance of these events. We have also identified two new horizons (the Roddans Port Tephras A and B) and tentatively recognise an additional horizon from Vallensgård Mose (Denmark) that provide crucial additional chronological control for the LGIT. Two phases of the Laacher See Tephra (LST) are reported, the lower Laacher See Tephra (LLST) and probably the C2 phase of the Middle Laacher See Tephra (MLST‐C2) indicating a more northeasterly distribution of this fan than reported previously. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

“Mind the gap”: Caves,radiocarbon sequences,and the Mesolithic–Neolithic transition in Europe—lessons from the Mala Triglavca rockshelter site

Radiocarbon sequences from some northern Mediterranean cave sites show a temporal gap between Mesolithic and Neolithic occupations. Some authors regard this as a regional phenomenon and have sought to explain it in terms of a general population decline in the late Mesolithic, which facilitated the replacement of indigenous foragers by immigrant farmers. New evidence from the rockshelter site of Mala Triglavca, in Slovenia, leads us to question this view. We describe the deposits in the rockshelter and discuss the results of AMS radiocarbon dating of bone samples recovered in excavations in the 1980s. New archaeological investigations and associated soil/sediment analyses show that in the central part of the rockshelter a well‐defined stratigraphic sequence can be established, despite post‐depositional modification by soil forming processes. There is also evidence of substantial post‐depositional disturbance of the cave sediments by human agency and geomorphological processes, which have created “temporal gaps” and “inversions” in the radiocarbon sequence. The relatively large series of radiocarbon dates obtained enables some of the post‐depositional processes to be identified. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Geochronology of Middle and Upper Pleistocene Loess Sections in Hungary

The application of both thermoluminescence and infrared stimulated luminescence dating to the extensively studied “classical” Hungarian loess/paleosol sequences from Basaharc, Mende, and Paks provides a reliable chronological framework and climatostratigraphic reconstruction for the last interglacial/glacial cycle. Based on this combined luminescence dating study a new chronology is proposed for the “Young Loess” in Hungary. Luminescence dating suggests that the loess below the MF2 horizon formed during the penultimate glaciation. The MF1 horizon probably formed during an interstade within oxygen isotope stage 3. For the youngest loess, overlying MF1, a very high accumulation rate was determined. Large time gaps occur above MF2 and MF1, indicating that most of the record of the last glaciation is missing in the standard sections at Basaharc, Mende, and Paks. Either large discontinuities or a very low accumulation rate occurred in all three type sections during the soil-forming periods. High-resolution studies of climatic proxies using this combined luminescence dating approach provide a reliable chronological framework for loess and loess derivatives of the last glacial cycle in Hungary, although a precise and complete chronostratigraphic reconstruction cannot be achieved from the incomplete records found at these sites.     

Method for Stochastic Inverse Modeling of Fault Geometry and Connectivity Using Flow Data

This paper focuses on fault-related uncertainties in the subsurface, which can significantly affect the numerical simulation of physical processes. Our goal is to use dynamic data and process-based simulation to update structural uncertainty in a Bayesian inverse approach. We propose a stochastic fault model where the number and features of faults are made variable. In particular, this model samples uncertainties about connectivity between the faults. The stochastic three dimensional fault model is integrated within a stochastic inversion scheme in order to reduce uncertainties about fault characteristics and fault zone layout, by minimizing the mismatch between observed and simulated data.     

A review of current research on TL dating of loess

The thick loess deposits of China, Central Europe and North America are particularly suitable for the application of the thermoluminescence (TL) dating method because individual grains are likely to have travelled large distances and thus been well exposed to light before deposition. Wind-blown silt grains collected close to glacial rivers in Alaska have been shown to give a ‘zero age’ of not more than 2 ka, demonstrating the efficiency of the zeroing mechanism.Differences in laboratory procedures can cause differences in the TL ages reported, particularly for loess over 100 ka. TL ages for interstadial soils in Europe are in agreement with the very few radiocarbon dates on reliable material, such as charcoal. On the other hand TL dates from sites in Belgium and north-western Germany indicate that the previously accepted chronology, which was based on two radiocarbon dates on humic-rich sediments, is incorrect.The use of the ‘last interglacial’ palaeosol for assessing the TL dates on loess above and below it is limited by the uncertainty in the timing of termination of soil-forming processes; 107 and 71 ka are the limits suggested by the astronomically-derived time scale. Results on deposits from China, North America, Alaska and Europe are discussed in this context.     

A multiproxy climate record from a raised bog in County Fermanagh,Northern Ireland: a critical examination of the link between bog surface wetness and solar variability

A proxy climate record from a raised bog in County Fermanagh, Northern Ireland, is presented. The record spans the interval between 2850 cal. yr BC and cal. yr AD 1000 and chronological control is achieved through the use of tephrochronology and ¹⁴C dating, including a wiggle‐match on one section of the record. Palaeoclimatic inferences are based on a combination of a testate amoebae‐derived water table reconstruction, peat humification and plant macrofossil analyses. This multiproxy approach enables proxy‐specific effects to be identified. Major wet shifts are registered in the proxies at ca. 1510 cal. yr BC, 750 cal. yr BC and cal. yr AD 470. Smaller magnitude shifts to wetter conditions are also recorded at ca. 380 cal. yr BC, 150 cal. yr BC, cal. yr AD 180, and cal. yr AD 690. It is hypothesised that the wet shifts are not merely local events as they appear to be linked to wider climate deteriorations in northwest Europe. Harmonic analysis of the proxies illustrates statistically significant periodicities of 580, 423–373, 307 and 265 years that may be related to wider Holocene climate cycles. This paper illustrates how the timing of climate changes registered in peat profiles records can be precisely constrained using tephrochronology to examine possible climatic responses to solar forcing. Relying on interpolated chronologies with considerable dating uncertainty must be avoided if the climatic responses to forcing mechanisms are to be fully understood. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Occurrence of varved lake sediment sequences in Varmland, west central Sweden: lake characteristics, varve chronology and AMS radiocarbon dating

Varved lake sediments can be used to set multiple environmental proxies within a calendar year time scale. We undertook a systematic survey of lakes in the Province of Värmland, west central Sweden, with the aim of finding continuous varved lake sediment sequences covering the majority of the Holocene. In Fennoscandia, such sediments have previously only been recorded in northern Sweden and in southern and central Finland. By following a selective process and fieldwork we discovered three new varved sites (i.e. Furskogstjärnet, Mötterudstjärnet and Kälksjön). We found that lakes with varved sediments have several common lake morphometry properties and lake catchment characteristics such as maximum water depth, maximum water depth/lake surface area ratio, catchment soil types, altitude and number of inflows. Varve chronologies, supported by AMS-¹⁴C dating and tephrochronology were established for two of the sediment profiles. These varve chronologies are the longest geological records with an annual resolution known to exist in Sweden. In Furskogstjärnet, the AMS- ¹⁴C dates based on terrestrial plant macrofossils at several levels deviate significantly from the varve based time-depth curve. In Motterudstjarnet, a fully reasonable time-depth model based on the ¹⁴C dates gives older ages in the lower part of the sequence compared to the varve chronology. These results highlight that seemingly acceptable AMS radiocarbon dates may be erroneous. They also point to the fact that varved lake sediments are reliable geological archives with respect to chronological control and accuracy. Thus, these archives should be of prime interest for studies of climate and environmental change undertaken with the aim of providing sub-decadal resolution proxy data sets.