经济全球化与中国资源环境可持续利用

本文以经济全球化为背景,指明世界性产业结构调整对发展中国家资源环境的影响。在此基础上,通过中国与某些发达国家工业化进程的对比分析,阐明中国入世后,本国产业结构与资源环境协调关系将会面对的挑战。最后结合中国国情,揭示未来产业结构调整需要注意的几个问题,并运用产业政策提出一些解决意见。     

The prospects of an adjustment policy based on collective learning in old industrial regions

This paper aims to discuss the possibilities of adopting a policy based on collective learning in old industrial regions. This is particularly interesting because old industrial regions are believed to have lost their learning capabilities, as indicated by notions of `technological' and `institutional' lock-in. Moreover, the success stories where positive effects of interactive learning have been observed (Silicon Valley, Baden-Württemberg) all share the lack of an industrial past.First, we specify how a theoretical framework based on interactive learning, which tries to explain the industrial decline of old agglomerations, may look like, and how such an approach differs from other approaches. Then, we set out a policy framework that aims to deal with the process of structural adjustment and which incorporates the ideas of interactive learning based on socio-cultural factors. In this respect, we distinguish between two possible routes of adjustment, which reveal a complex interplay between different types of agglomeration economies, innovations and restructuring processes. Finally, we devote attention to the problems such a policy based on the notion of the learning region may face, such as the problem of how to overcome a negative lock-in situation caused by localized path dependency.     

Proximity and complexity in the emergence of high technology industry: The oxbridge comparison

This paper examines similarities and differences in the emergence of high-tech enterprise and the growth of associated industry in Cambridgeshire and Oxfordshire since the 1960s. These cases are viewed as instances of a generic phenomenon: the emergence and growth of the science-based ‘innovative milieu’. A conceptual scheme drawn from complexity studies is used to introduce explanatory coherence into the apparently scattered and disconnected factors relevant to the genesis of high-tech milieux.     

The potential and prospect for global cities in China: in the context of the world system

Over the last two decades, accompanying their rapid economic development, many `mega-cities' in China have devoted themselves to changing their relationships to the global economy and some have aimed at attaining global (world) city status as a key future development goal. This paper examines the relationship between global (world) city status and the emerging world economic system, and discusses the intense competition between `mega-cities' in the Asia-Pacific region that Chinese cities will face in the 21st century, especially after the Asia financial crisis. It also explores the potential and possibility of achieving global or world city status in China. The main arguments are that only Hong Kong, Shanghai and Beijing have the possibility to attain leading positions in the global urban system in the future. Post-1997, it has been very important for the Chinese government to find a way to coordinate the functions of Hong Kong and the other major cities which allows them to operate smoothly together under quite different political systems. Finally, the authors analyse the relationships between these three metropolises and suggests some possibilities for coordinating their roles in the global urban system.     

The smallest of the largest: a new look at possible dwarfing in sauropod dinosaurs

Franz Baron Nopcsa recognised that the Late Cretaceous titanosaurid sauropod from Transylvania, Magyarosaurus dacus, was much smaller than the better known sauropods from the Upper Jurassic of the United States and even from Late Cretaceous deposits elsewhere in the world. In keeping with his biogeographic interpretations, Nopcsa viewed this difference as a consequence of body-size effects via island habitation. We present a preliminary re-evaluation of Nopcsa's claims and their heterochronic consequences using two approaches, viz. (1) regression analysis of humeral data as a means of establishing patterns in body size among titanosaurids, and (2) optimisation of humeral data onto titanosaurid cladograms to evaluate evolutionary trends within the clade. Our regression analysis is based on twenty species distributed among fourteen genera of neosauropods and uses length and mid-shaft mediolateral width of the humerus of presumed fully adult forms, and of growth samples that consist of postnatal to adult individuals. Linear regression analysis suggests that, among adult neosauropods, M. dacus appears to be represented by the smallest individuals; that M. dacus humeri appear to be more similar to those of subadults than to adults of other taxa; and that this juvenile morphology may constitute dwarfing in M. dacus by paedomorphosis. In order for these regressions to reflect their evolutionary context more fully, we also present optimisation analyses of humeral form within Titanosauroidea. Although many aspects of the phylogeny of this clade are relatively poorly resolved, preliminary results of our analyses are consistent with the conclusion that M. dacus was a heterochronic dwarf.     

Activity-specificity in organizational learning: implications for analysing the role of proximity

By the late 1990s, learning became a key notion in explaining successful regional economic development outcomes. One of the key (implicit or explicit) assumptions in these explanations tends to be that regional – i.e., proximate – relations are most conducive for collective interactive learning. In consequence, accounting for the significance of spatial proximity appears to be at the heart of explaining learning and the creation of competitiveness at the level of regions as well as the firms that they host. A general claim about the role of proximity in learning seems too vague, however. This paper suggests that the significance of proximate relations for learning needs to be unveiled in the case of the various activities carried out in firms. Firms are depicted as utilising activity-specific resources in carrying out their various functions. While other factors obviously also influence processes of learning – such as sector, product and market strategies, type of organization, etc. – this paper puts its main focus on elaborating on the significance of understanding various organizational activities. It aims at pointing out that learning is likely to take place in all of them, regardless of whether proximate or more distant relations are involved. This is believed to provide one step further in an attempt to understand the difference that space makes in organizational learning.     

Comparative study of scintillations at the magnetic equator and at the crest region of the equatorial anomaly in Indian zone

Using simultaneous long-term observations of ionospheric scintillation at equator and anomaly crest region in the same longitude (Indian) zone comparative features of scintillation occurrence are brought out. The salient features are: (a) predominantly pre-midnight occurrence of scintillation at equator during winter and equinox seasons, (b) increase of pre-midnight scintillation occurrence with solar activity (c) shifting of occurrence peak during summer from post-midnight in low to pre-midnight in high solar activity periods (d) similarity of scintillation behaviour at these locations during winter and equinoxes but dissimilarity during summer. The solar activity response and magnetic effects indicate that the scintillations at the anomaly crest region in winter and equinox, particularly during high solar activity periods, are of equatorial origin while the summer events may be of local or mid-latitude origin.     

Shifting frames for local people and forests in a global heritage: the Thung Yai Naresuan Wildlife Sanctuary in the context of Thailand’s globalization and modernization

Focusing on the case of the World Heritage Site and Wildlife Sanctuary Thung Yai Naresuan, the paper sketches the interdependences of international and national forest and conservation policies in Thailand since the middle of the 19th century. In the context of Thailand’s globalization and modernization, these policies resulted in a coercing conservationism which focuses increasingly on the so-called ‘hill tribe’ ethnic minority groups. The shifting cultural and political framings of the area that became a national wildlife sanctuary and a ‘global heritage’ reflect external economic, political, and ideological interests. The people of the Karen ethnic minority group who live in the sanctuary are conceived of as a disruptive factor and never have had a chance to participate in these framings. After the designation of the area as a World Heritage Site, the remaining villages face increasing pressure from the Royal Forest Department which is trying to remove them with the help of the Military. Drawing on the different vested interests and the relativity of cultural conceptualizations, the paper questions the external framing, pointing to three major problems that are raised with regard to Thung Yai, but are symptomatic of modern conservationism at large: inconsistencies between normative claims and political practice; distortions of scale between conceptions designed at different levels of social space from the local to the global, and; the problem to reconcile conflicting cultural patterns and conceptualizations. The paper argues for a reframing of the conflict to conceive the Karen in Thung Yai as an integral part of the ‘global heritage’.     

The role of consumption and globalization in a cultural industry: The case of flamenco

The rise of cultural industries is in part facilitated by the rise of leisure and entertainment in the advanced industrialized economies. This article explores one such example, taking ‘ethnic’ art, flamenco, and examining the role of consumption in shaping flamenco, both as an art form and as an industry. The global reach of the flamenco industry is assessed by focusing on two major markets, Japan and the United States. It suggests the presence of a geographic paradox in contemporary cultural industries, which, on the one hand, points to the need to retain their place-based identity, and on the other hand, indicates the need for regional cultures to establish links to export markets for their survival. It also shows that contemporary cultural change is not a unilateral process of the global invading the local. Rather, it is a process of consumers interpreting, appropriating, and adopting a cultural commodity in their own terms.     

中国沉积学发展战略:沉积学教育现状与展望

通过调研国内主要地质高校涉及沉积学领域的专业设置、课程设置、野外教学和研究生毕业论文等情况,对中国沉积学相关的人才培养模式进行分析,从而讨论了中国沉积学教育现状及发展趋势。调研结果显示:1）中国地质类院校中涉及沉积学的本科专业设置基本统一,而研究生专业设置则存在较大的差异,各大高校的传统优势研究领域各具特色;2）通过统计近15年沉积学相关专业研究生毕业论文情况,揭示沉积学相关专业学位论文数量占地质学科总数的32%,其中油气地质学学科又占沉积学论文总数的77.1%,可见油气地质学是近15年来沉积学领域发展最快的学科,说明我国的经济增长和石油与天然气勘探开发与对人才的需求息息相关;3）通过研究生学位论文与我国国内生产总值（GDP）增长率对比,我国沉积学教育与国民经济是同步发展的,一方面国民经济发展和社会进步不断向沉积学领域提出新的课题,促进沉积学和沉积学教育的发展,另一方面沉积学领域和沉积学教育取得的成果反过来又推动国民经济发展和社会进步。对沉积学人才培养需要确定正确的目标和模式,将素质教育和创新能力培养贯穿于人才培养的全过程,协调统一本科地质学基础教育和研究生沉积学专门教育,构建终生教育体系,才能真正满足社会发展的需求,使沉积学各研究领域的接续力量源源不断,使中国的沉积学蓬勃发展。     

Analyses of precipitation,temperature and evapotranspiration in a French Mediterranean region in the context of climate change

This study is focused on the western part of the French Mediterranean area, namely the Pyrénées-Orientales and Aude administrative departments. The water resources (surface and groundwater) in the region are sensitive to climate change. The study addresses the question of whether any trend in the annual and monthly series of temperature, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) already appears at the scale of this region. Two data sources have been used: (a) direct local measurements using the meteorological network; and (b) spatially interpolated data from the French weather service model SAFRAN for the period 1970–2006. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test was applied to identify significant trends at the local scale and, because of the natural spatial variability of the Mediterranean climate, regional interpretation was also performed. The trends observed in the 13 catchments of interest are consistent with those observed at a larger scale. An increase in annual mean temperature and annual PET was observed throughout the study area, whereas annual precipitation has not exhibited any trend. The monthly scale has revealed strong seasonal variability in trend. The trend for an increase in monthly PET has been observed mainly in the spring, and has not been seen in the coastal areas. A trend for an increase in monthly temperature has been observed in June and in the spring throughout the entire area. Monthly rainfall has been found to decrease in June and increase in November throughout the area. The significant trends observed in rainfall and temperature seem to be consistent between the different data sources.     

亚洲东部“大三角”地震构造区的周边和深部动力环境

亚洲东部存在一个巨大的三角形地震构造区域,大体上,喜马拉雅山脉、帕米尔—天山—阿尔泰山—贝加尔和东经105°线是它的3个边界,主要覆盖中国和蒙古国西部众多高原、山脉及山间盆地。三角区内现今构造活动和地震广泛强烈,地壳破碎,显示不均匀的块体边界和块内变形;区外基本上是稳定的刚性陆块,地震很少,变形较弱,处于整体缓慢运动之中。这个宽阔的板内变形区起源于印度、菲律宾海—西太平洋和欧亚三大板块之间的动力作用以及深部地幔流的影响。向北快速运动的印度次大陆已近水平地插入到西藏板块下,沿喜马拉雅弧产生多种运动和变形,并向亚洲内部远距离地扩散。沿东经95°～100°,向北的地壳运动向东和东南方向偏转,阻截了喜马拉雅弧东端的北向运动;而在喜马拉雅弧西端,帕米尔继续向北挤进中亚,受天山—阿尔泰山—贝加尔一线西北側稳定地壳的限制,扩散的变形被中国、蒙古、俄罗斯边境地区一系列EW向和NW向的老断层吸收并在它们的西端终止。菲律宾海—西太平洋向欧亚大陆的消减-俯冲导致沿海沟-岛弧的漫长而狭窄的地震带,但对亚洲大陆的水平挤压较小,未能阻挡亚洲大陆东部向东移动。其部分原因可能是俯冲板片受到来自欧亚大陆下的ES向地幔流的推挤,这个ES向地幔流与来自印度下面的N向地幔流在西藏中部汇合并向东偏转,在大尺度上与GPS观测到的地表移动图像一致。     

Predicting environmental conditions to minimise salt damage at the Tower of London: a comparison of two approaches

The paper compares the results of two studies of salt damage at the Wakefield Tower, Tower of London. The first, in 1993, was based on semi-quantitative salt analysis and hygroscopicity measurements. The second was based on quantitative analysis and a thermodynamic model, ECOS. Both studies aimed to predict environmental conditions that would minimise salt damage to the interior stonework. Their predictions are markedly different, and this paper examines the reasons for the differences. It is shown that hygroscopicity alone is not a reliable indicator of crystallisation from mixed salt solutions.

亚洲风尘高空传输和循环研究进展:雪冰粉尘证据

亚洲粉尘对大气系统、生物地球化学循环和雪冰消融具有重要影响。粉尘沉降在山地冰川雪冰时由于其海拔较高（位于对流层中上部）,因而提供了独特的研究高空风尘传输和循环的良好介质。远距离传输的粉尘主要在高空对流层中上部进行传输,开展高海拔地区的雪冰粉尘研究可以反映风尘大范围传输和循环的大气环境信息,为历史时期气候环境演化和未来预估研究提供依据。本研究简要回顾了前人冰芯粉尘的研究工作,系统总结了本研究组近期开展的雪冰粉尘相关研究,包括：1）冰川雪坑中粉尘的时空差异证实了高空粉尘传输量（浓度和通量等）与源区大小及距离源区远近有着最为密切的关系;2）冰尘示踪同位素（⁸⁷ Sr/⁸⁶ Sr和ε_Nd（0））和粒度反映的青藏高原粉尘传输和沉降主要来自于高原面上的地表风化物和沙漠化,而非周边塔克拉玛干等大沙漠的输入;3）冰尘研究发现粉尘传输和沉降过程中混合了大气各种组分单颗粒;4）冰冻圈消融释放的粉尘会造成雪冰加速消融以及冰川流域融水理化性质改变。本研究通过对我国西部不同区域的高海拔雪冰粉尘研究结果进行综合分析对比,以获得亚洲风尘在高海拔冰冻圈区域大范围沉降和循环的初步认识。最后提出了存在的问题和不足,并对未来雪冰粉尘研究前景进行了讨论和展望。

     

Tectonic Environments of Cenozoic Volcanic Rocks in China and Characteristics of the Source Regions in the Mantle

Extensive volcanism is one of the important features of Cenozoic geology in China.Based on temporal-spatial distribution,the volcanism was associated with three major different geological settings:1)the continental rift basalts in Northeast and North China;2)the tension-fault basalts on the continental margins of Southeast China; and 3) the collision-zone high-K volcanics in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and its vicinities.The characteristics of “depletion in the south and enrichment in the north“of the China continental mantle are strongly supported by isotopic evidence.The Cenozoic continental cal characters,into the following geochemical provinces:1)the depleted mantle in South China;2)the primary mantle in Northeast and NorthChina; 3)the hybrid and transi-tional mantle in the region of Shandong ,Anhui,Jiangsu and northern Zhejiang;4)the depleted mantle around the Bohai Bay and the Lower Liaohe River;5)the K-metasomatic enriched mantle in the northern part of Northeast China;and 6)the re-cycled enriched mantle in the ancient subduction zone in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and its surround-ings.These geochemical characteristics on a regional scale must be a reflection of the nature of lithosphere evolution.     

气候变化背景下长江源区径流变化特征及其成因分析

利用1960-2011年历年逐月长江上游通天河流域直门达水文站观测的流量资料、 长江源区气象台站观测资料以及NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料, 研究分析了长江源区径流变化特征及其气候归因. 结果表明: 2005年之前, 长江源区年及夏、 秋、 冬季的平均流量呈持续下降趋势, 2005年以后, 长江源区年及四季的平均流量均呈显著增加趋势. 其中, 以夏季平均流量的增幅最为明显, 年平均流量有4 a左右及12 a左右的变化周期. 高原夏季风、 长江源区夏季7、 8月地面感热、 流域降水量、 蒸发量、 气温及冰川和积雪融水均对长江源区流量变化有明显影响. 2005年以后, 长江源区年及四季的降水量呈明显的增加趋势, 而蒸发量呈明显的减少趋势. 同时, 温度急剧上升导致的冰川和积雪融水增多, 是2005年以来长江源区流量急剧增加的重要原因.     

青藏高原1∶25万区域地质调查地貌年代学研究

高原隆升及剥蚀作用的复杂性与区域差异性以及高原恶劣的气候、地理条件,使得在青藏高原空白区1:25万区域地质调查中进行地貌年代学研究具有很大的现实意义。由于地貌是高原隆升、环境演化、新构造运动等的信息载体,地貌年代有助于重塑这些地质作用的发生时间及发展过程,因此地貌年代学研究具有重要的技术意义。1:25万银石山幅的工作表明,地貌年代学调查对高原隆升及环境演化过程研究具有良好效果。     

Gully erosion spatial modelling: Role of machine learning algorithms in selection of the best controlling factors and modelling process

This investigation assessed the efficacy of 10 widely used machine learning algorithms (MLA) comprising the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), generalized linear model (GLM), stepwise generalized linear model (SGLM), elastic net (ENET), partial least square (PLS), ridge regression, support vector machine (SVM), classification and regression trees (CART), bagged CART, and random forest (RF) for gully erosion susceptibility mapping (GESM) in Iran. The location of 462 previously existing gully erosion sites were mapped through widespread field investigations, of which 70% (323) and 30% (139) of observations were arbitrarily divided for algorithm calibration and validation. Twelve controlling factors for gully erosion, namely, soil texture, annual mean rainfall, digital elevation model (DEM), drainage density, slope, lithology, topographic wetness index (TWI), distance from rivers, aspect, distance from roads, plan curvature, and profile curvature were ranked in terms of their importance using each MLA. The MLA were compared using a training dataset for gully erosion and statistical measures such as RMSE (root mean square error), MAE (mean absolute error), and R-squared. Based on the comparisons among MLA, the RF algorithm exhibited the minimum RMSE and MAE and the maximum value of R-squared, and was therefore selected as the best model. The variable importance evaluation using the RF model revealed that distance from rivers had the highest significance in influencing the occurrence of gully erosion whereas plan curvature had the least importance. According to the GESM generated using RF, most of the study area is predicted to have a low (53.72%) or moderate (29.65%) susceptibility to gully erosion, whereas only a small area is identified to have a high (12.56%) or very high (4.07%) susceptibility. The outcome generated by RF model is validated using the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) curve approach, which returned an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.985, proving the excellent forecasting ability of the model. The GESM prepared using the RF algorithm can aid decision-makers in targeting remedial actions for minimizing the damage caused by gully erosion.     

东天山吐哈盆地南缘古生代活动陆缘残片：中亚地区古亚洲洋板块俯冲的地质记录

本文根据对已有地质资料的综合研究，系统论述了吐哈盆地南缘古生代活动陆缘残片的时空分布、岩石组合和岩石化学特征，在此基础上对古亚洲洋构造演化进行了简要的探讨。该区活动陆缘残片由奥陶纪-志留纪（？）、泥盆纪、石炭纪火山沉积岩系和泥盆纪、石炭纪深成岩组成。这些不同时代岩浆岩的时空分布揭示出该区弧岩浆前锋带的演化具有向南逐渐迁移的特点。这些不同时代的火山岩和深成岩在岩石组合和岩石化学方面都类似于钙碱系列弧岩浆岩。它们的这些特征，结合它们的区域地质背景，使我们得出如下初步结论：它们的形成演化与以南侧康古尔塔格碰撞带中的洋壳残片为代表的古洋岩石圈板块向西伯利亚古板块之下的俯冲有关；它们很可能是出露在阿尔泰山南侧、蒙古南部和大兴安岭中部等地的类似杂岩一起构成了古亚洲洋中西伯利亚古板块活动陆缘；该活动陆缘的发育，提示出古亚洲洋板块向西伯利亚古板块之下的俯冲在奥陶纪至古炭纪期间一直在持续进行。     

Anglo-Saxon and German approaches to neoliberalism and environmental policy: The case of financing renewable energy

‘Renewable electricity certificate’ trading systems that have been established to promote renewable energy in the UK are a form of neoliberal environmental governance introduced to assimilate environmental objectives with neoliberal hegemony. However, in this case, neoliberal ideological objectives have not been translated into practice since the British Renewable Obligation is not performing as efficiently as its proponents hoped. By contrast, so-called ‘Renewable Energy Feed-in Tariff’ (REFIT) systems which involve the fixing of tariffs for renewable energy by governmental intervention, are regarded as producing more efficient outcomes. The use of the REFIT system in Germany is associated with an institutional tradition that places emphasis on giving competitive opportunities to new market entrants in order to break up concentrations of market power by incumbents.