Modeling the evolution of the family of Mediterranean cyclones using the regional model of the atmosphere

Due to the complex orography and the presence of the moisture-saturated air, the Mediterranean region is characterized by the increased baroclinic and convective instability, that leads to the sudden cyclogenesis and the formation of dangerous weather phenomena. The results are given of the investigation of formation mechanisms of Mediterranean cyclones, peculiarities of stages of their evolution and dynamical processes, which occur throughout the atmosphere, using the regional numerical ETA model of the atmosphere by the example of individual cases of the cyclogenesis over the Mediterranean Sea. It is revealed that the cold Arctic air outbreak (the intrusion of the cold Arctic air) to the south of the Western Europe, leading to the formation of the areas of the baroclinic instability and the increased moisture content of the air in the area of the vortex origin, favors the cyclogenesis. The use of the vertical coordinate η in the model enabled to compute more precisely the vertical wind speed, therefore, the influence of the orography on the moisture content and precipitation increase became pronounced. The transformation of the structure of meteorological fields in the course of the development of vortexes is considered. The computation of the helicity is made, and it is shown that this characteristic can be one of the earliest predictors of cyclogenesis.     

On the forecast of the onset and end of the convective season in the Amazon

Summary ?Some features of the climate system that can be considered predictors of the onset and end of the convective season over the Amazon were identified using one-month lag correlations and field composites. The fields analyzed were sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), vertical velocity and upper tropospheric winds. Warm (cold) anomalies in the SST in the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea tend to be associated with delayed (early) onsets. Likewise, there is a tendency towards a delayed (early) end of the convective season with cold (warm) anomalies in these ocean regions. In addition, the SST in the cold tongue region of the equatorial Pacific is negatively, though weakly correlated with the onset date. The signal of this SST is more evident in the case of the end date, which is earlier with respect to its mean date in most of El Ni?o cases. The convective activity intensity itself conditions the onset and the end of the convective season, as it is evidenced by the behavior of the OLR and the vertical velocity fields. The more (less) intense the convective activity over South America during the preceding month, the earlier the onset and the later the end of the convective season on the Amazon region. The prediction of the onset and end dates of the convective season in the Amazon region was explored using a simple multiple regression technique based on the variables that have shown precursor signals with respect to these dates. The correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed onset date is 0.81, and in the case of the end date, it is 0.76. The skill to predict early, delayed and normal categories was high, since in more than two thirds of the cases the category was successfully predicted, and there were no predictions of categories opposed to those observed. Received July 23, 2001; revised February 22, 2002; accepted April 26, 2002     

两类ENSO事件非对称性特征分析

利用1961—2010年多种海、气观测资料,分析了东部型(EP)和中部型(CP)ENSO事件海温异常的非对称性及可能原因,并讨论了两类ENSO事件的非对称性对大气环流的可能影响。结果表明,海温异常非对称性包括空间分布非对称、强度非对称以及持续性非对称。从动力学角度来看,虽然不同事件发展衰减阶段主导的动力作用不尽相同,但就两类事件强度非对称性而言,海洋垂直对流项起关键性的作用。此外,研究发现,无论是通过海温强迫直接影响的赤道地区或是通过遥相关影响的赤道外地区,大气非对称响应都表现出与海温异常非对称较强的一致性,其中东部型ENSO的非对称性分布与事件暖位相分布相似,而中部型ENSO的非对称性分布与事件冷位相分布相似,且东部型ENSO非对称性差异大于中部型ENSO。     

热带气旋眼墙非对称结构的研究综述

热带气旋的眼墙非对称结构与其发展过程密切相关。在热带气旋移动过程中,非对称风场伴随着边界层内非对称摩擦而引起的辐合,影响着热带气旋眼墙内的对流分布。此外,风垂直切变作为影响热带气旋强度的重要因子,将上层暖心吹离表层环流,引起眼墙垂直运动的非对称,导致云、降水在方位角方向的非均匀分布。当存在平均涡度的径向梯度时,罗斯贝类型的波动可以存在于涡旋内核区域,影响眼墙非对称结构。海洋为热带气旋提供潜热和感热形式的能量,是热带气旋发展的重要能量来源,关于海洋如何影响热带气旋眼墙非对称结构的相关研究较少。文中着重回顾了热带气旋与海洋相互作用的研究成果,并提出海洋影响热带气旋眼墙非对称结构的机制。海洋对热带气旋最显著的响应特征是冷尾效应,该效应通过降低海表温度,减少海洋向大气输送的潜热和感热,从而影响热带气旋眼墙非对称结构。此外,海浪改变海表粗糙度,通过边界层影响移动热带气旋的眼墙结构。     

Quantifying the uncertainty of the annular mode time scale and the role of the stratosphere

The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998–2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.     

On the breakdown of the westerlies

The dynamics of the ultra‐long Rossby waves are studied with the aid of a primitive equation numerical model. The investigation is focused on a study of the breakdown of a high‐index circulation. Different idealized flow patterns are used as initial conditions and forecasts are made with the numerical model. The influences of oceans and mountains are studied by incorporating them into the model. The results indicate that barotropic and baroclinic instabilities as well as the structure of the earth's surface are of importance for the development, but the experiments do not clearly indicate which one of these factors is most important.     

平流层准零风层统计特征及准两年周期振荡对其影响分析

根据形成机制的不同将平流层准零风层（Quasi-Zero Wind Layer,QZWL）划分为由平流层准两年周期振荡（Quasi-Biennial Oscillation,QBO）各高度处于不同位相形成的第一类QZWL和由于平流层低层经向温度梯度逆转而形成的第二类QZWL;利用ERA-40再分析资料分析了两类QZWL在不同季节中空间结构的变化规律,讨论了平流层QBO对两类QZWL年际变化产生的影响。研究结果表明：第一类QZWL集中出现在冬季赤道附近地区,第二类QZWL在夏季热带外地区和冬季20°N～40°N太平洋地区上空;QZWL夏季高度比冬季低约3 km,夏季QZWL出现高度比冬季稳定,约在50～70 hPa之间;由于受到QBO的直接影响,第一类QZWL出现的高度和纬度范围存在明显的年际变化,第二类QZWL受到QBO的影响主要体现在QBO西风位相年和东风位相年相比,冬季20°N～40°N范围内存在第二类QZWL的概率较高。     

On the modification of the dynamics in the environment of severe thunderstorms

Summary A detailed study of widespread thunderstorm activity occurring in winter over the central and coastal parts of Egypt (Cairo 30° N, Marsa Matruh 31° N) is presented. The storm activity is associated with strong positive vorticity in the 300/200 mb layer. The maximum kinetic energy was located at the storm centre. The divergent wind component was found to be very important in energy transformation and a major cause of energy generation by cross contour flow.With 3 Figures     

北太平洋副热带海区的两支东向逆流

分析SODA同化资料(1950～1999年)所描述的北太平洋副热带海区表层一次表层的东向逆流的空间分布和季节变化特征.从气候平均场看,北太平洋副热带的东向流主要包括东、西两部分,其中,太平洋中部夏威夷岛西侧的东支逆流位置偏南,强度夏季最大,春季最弱.海表风应力的旋度异常产生的Ekman抽吸是东支逆流形成的主要原因.位于西太平洋的西支逆流位置偏北,春季一夏季强度较大.西支逆流的形成和季节变化可以由副热带模态水的辐合解释.     

太平洋中低纬度海表温差与副热带高压异常的数值模拟

中国夏季天气变化与太平洋副热带高压关系密切,而中低纬度热力差异可能是副热带高压的强度和位置发生变化的莺要原因,文中利用NCAR/NCEP再分析位势高度、垂商速度和海表温度场资料,在对太平洋海表温度合理分区的基础上.根据海表温度EOF分解的第一模态时间系数与副热带高压的相关关系,定义了太平洋中、低纬度海表温差指数,并通过统计分析和数值模拟方法分析了温差的年代际变化特征及其对副热带高压的影响.结果表明:副热带高压的变化分别与中纬度太平洋的(30°-40°N,180°-140°W)和低纬度太平洋的(10°S-10°N,140°～100°W)两块区域海温关系密切,对由此两区域定义的温差指数分析发现,1976年前后温差指数出现一次显著的由弱变强的年代际突变,且温差的年代际变化特征与副热带高压异常有很好的对应关系,温差大值年,副热带高压偏强,面积增大,西伸尤其明显;温差小值年,副热带高压偏弱,面积减小,东撤明显.进一步的统计分析和NCAR/CAM3.0模式数值模拟都发现,夏季中低纬海表温差增大将引起哈得来环流加强,副热带的下沉速度加大,使副热带高压增强;夏季中低纬海表温差减小将引起哈得来环流减弱,副热带的下沉速度减小,使副热带高压减弱.冈此夏季中低纬海表温差的变化是导致副热带高压强度和位置异常的重要原因之一.     

青藏高原抬升加热气候效应研究的新进展

对近4年来关于青藏高原加热影响气候的研究进行回顾.首先介绍利用位涡方程和热力适应理论,揭示;夏季高原上空低层气旋式及高层反气旋式环流结构稳定维持的动力学机理.结果表明高原加热作用造成的低层正涡源是低层气旋式环流得以稳定维持的重要原因.而边界层摩擦产生的负位涡是平衡正位涡的主要因素.高原加热还在高原上空形成负位涡,它影响着盛夏的大气环流,是青藏高原上空强大而稳定的反气旋环流得以维持的重要因素.在春夏过渡季节青藏高原非绝热加热对大气环流季节变化以及亚洲季风爆发的影响力方面,进一步确认了感热加热在过渡季节早期(5月中旬以前)环:流演变中的重要作用.青藏高原非绝热加热的时间演变引起了海陆热力差异对比的变化,使副热带高压带首先在孟加拉湾东部断裂,亚洲季风因而在孟加拉湾爆发.结果还表明,用纬向风垂直差异的时空分布能更准确地表示季节变化的区域差异.在青藏高原非绝热加热与北半球环流系统年际变化的联系方面,发现夏季青藏高原的加热强(弱)的年份,高原感热加热气泵(SHAP)高(低)效工作,使高原加热对周边地区低层暖湿空气的抽吸效应和对高层大气向周边地区的排放作用加强(减弱),高原及邻近地区的上升运动,下层辐合和上层辐散均增强(减弱),从而影响着高原和周边地区的环流以及亚洲季风区大尺度环流系统.而且高原的加热强迫还能够激发产生一支沿亚欧大陆东部海岸向东北方向传播的Rossby波列,其频散效应可影响到更远的东太平洋以至北美地区的大气环流.研究还表明,盛夏的南亚高压存在"青藏高压型"和"伊朗高压型"的双模态,它们与高原加热状态有关,且显著地与亚洲季风区的气候分布密切联系.     

A study on the physical processes of the formation of the ENSO cycle

The physical processes involved in the formation of the ENSO cycle,as well as the possible roles of the Hadley circulation （HC）,Walker circulation （WC）,and the propagating waves of the Southern Oscillation/Northern Oscillation （SO/NO） in its formation,were studied using composite and regression methods.The analysis showed that the convection and heat release triggered by ENSO in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific are the primary drivers for the 3-5 year cycle of the HC,WC and the meridional/zonal circulation.The HC plays a key role in the influence of ENSO on the circulation outside the tropics through angular momentum transportation.Meanwhile,the feedback effects of the anomalous circulation in the mid-high latitudes on ENSO are accomplished by the propagating waves of SO/NO associated with the evolutions of HC and WC.These propagating waves are the main agents of the connections among the meridional/zonal circulation outside the tropics,the Asian/Australian monsoon,the anomalous easterly/westerly winds over the tropical Pacific,and ENSO events.It was found that the 3-5 year cycle of the meridional/zonal circulation forced by ENSO is quite different from the several-week variation of the circulation index triggered by the inner dynamic processes of the atmosphere.The former occurs at the global scale with a definite flow pattern,while the latter occurs only in a wide area without a definite flow pattern.Finally,a physical model for the formation of the ENSO cycle composed of two fundamental processes at the basin and global scale,respectively,is proposed.     

淮河上游大暴雨的水分平衡

分析了淮河上游大暴雨过程的水汽来源和暴雨区的水分平衡。结果说明，暴雨区除有大量水汽净通量外，还有相当数量的水分来自云的净输送，尤其是大暴雨中心附近，积雨云团的净通量决定降水量的大小。因此，分析云的移动和变化是暴雨预报的重要课题。     

Forecasting the quality of Nansi Lake water after the construction of the new channel of the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal

The changes in the quality of Nansi Lake water due to the building of the new channel of the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal are studied. The relationship between algae growth and environmental factors is analyzed. This relationship has practical significance and guiding value for Nansi Lake, it helps to prevent the outbreaks of water bloom effectively and ensure the stable development of economy, society and environment in the regions covered with the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. It is established that the use of the new channel of the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal causes the following variations in the lake water: water temperature increases, while the values of pH, TP, and TN decrease. Besides, the content of Fe²⁺ in water depends on regional and seasonal peculiarities; the trend towards the stabilization of SiO₃ ² is observed. The new channel construction led to variations in chlorophyll-a content mainly due to changed water temperature and pH. Besides, riverbed digging and intense ship traffic also affect water characteristics.     

An investigation of the characteristics of the onset and cessation of the rains in Nigeria

Summary Rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PE) data spanning 35 years (1959–1993) were analysed to determine the onset and cessation of the rains for 4 selected stations in each of the 4 major selected zones of Nigeria. The characteristics of onset and cessation of the rains have been categorised as normal, early and late. The pattern of occurrence of each category varies among the ecological zones. For instance, the occurrence of normal onset of the rains is highest at locations in the Forest and Guinea Savanna Zones. In the Sudan Savanna area, however, the occurrence of normal onset of the rains is equal with that of late occurrence. It was, however, found that the occurrence of normal cessation of the rains is higher than early or late cessation at locations in all the zones. Furthermore, the occurrence of each category of the cessation of the rains is more consistent than that of the onset. The influence of the Inter-Tropical Discontinuity (ITD) on the latter observation have been noted. Further analysis of the characteristics of the onset and cessation of the rains showed that occurrence of short-falls in the duration of the rainfalls for normal agricultural activaties is peculiar to all the zones. However, such shortfalls are lower in the Forest Zone than in the Savanna regions, indicating that the reliability of the duration of the rainfalls for normal agricultural activities decreases northwards from the forest to the Sudan Savanna region. The implications of the observations for farm operations have been stressed.With 10 Figures     

珠江三角洲地区大气混合层特征分析

该文使用珠江三角洲地区部分测站低空温度探测资料,分析讨论该地区边界层内冬、夏季混合层的高度、厚度变化特征,得出该地区混合层高度偏低并具有多层分布的特点。     

北京气候中心大气模式对季节内振荡的模拟

对北京气候中心大气模式(BCC AGCM2.0.1)模拟热带季节内振荡的能力进行了检验.北京气候中心新一代气候模式(BCC AGCM2.0.1)是在原中国国家气候中心模式的基础上参考NCAR CAM3改进形成的.新模式中引进了一个新的参考大气和参考面气压.因此原模式的预报量中的气温(T)和地面气压(p_s)则变为它们对参考大气气温的偏差和对参考面气压的偏差.模式还加入了新的Zhang-Mcfarlane对流参数化方案,并对其参数计算方法进行调整和改进.此外还对模式边界层处理、雪盖计算等进行了改进.上述模式在实测的月海温作为下边界条件的情况下运行52年(1949年9月-2001年10月).然后对运行结果中的季节内振荡的状况进行分析,主要结果如下:NCAR CAM3模式模拟热带季节内振荡的能力很差,主要表现在模拟的热带季节内振荡强度很弱;东移波与西移波的强度很接近,而实际观测中是东移波的能量要远大于西移波;季节内振荡的季节变化及空间分布与观测相差很远.北京气候中心大气模式(BCC AGCM2.0.1)模拟热带季节内振荡的能力有显著的提高.模拟的热带季节内振荡很明显,强度接近于观测结果;模拟东移波的能量要大于西移波,这与观测较为一致;季节内振荡的季节变化和空间分布与观测相差不大.总的来看,BCC AGCM2.0.1模式在模拟热带季节内振荡方面比CAM3模式有明显的改进.     

Relationship of the interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow with the IOD over the tropical Indian Ocean

Based on the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis product, the interannual variability of the upper-ocean ITF volume transport from 1958 to 2001 is investigated. The wavelet analysis shows a second prominent interannual oscillation with a period of about 2–4 years. To reveal any relationship between this band-scale oscillation of the upper-ocean ITF and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), correlation and wavelet analyses are used. The correlation coefficient between the upper-ocean ITF and IOD reaches –0.35 with the upper-ocean ITF lagging the IOD index by 8 months. The dipole structure of IOD event is reproduced by the correlation with the upper-ocean ITF lagging the SST anomaly over the tropical Indian Ocean by 8 months from 1958 to 2001. The upper-ocean ITF and IOD show high coherency from about 1975 to 2001. The fact that the wavelet power spectrum of the upper-ocean ITF shows similar structure to that of IOD index supports this high coherency. These analyses suggest that the 2–4-year band-scale oscillation of the upper-ocean ITF is uniquely related to IOD over the tropical Indian Ocean.     

Characteristics of the precipitation over the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau

Variations of precipitation over the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau are analyzed by using data over station Yaan including daytime, nighttime, and daily-mean precipitation and satellite-derived information. A comparison of some features over Yaan and other stations is also carried out. Over Yaan, light-moderate precipitation contributes significantly to both the number of rainy days (96.9%) and the amount (66.9%) of total precipitation. The light-moderate precipitation occurs more frequently at nighttime than at daytime (by 44.5 days, or 33.4%, and by 520.6 mm, or 134.4%, each year), and the nighttime precipitation is mainly in the form of light-moderate precipitation. The number of rainy days and the amount of total precipitation have decreased from the 1950s to the 1970s and during the recent 20 years, associated with negative trends of light-moderate precipitation. Similar features are also found in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite data. Local convective precipitation is the main form of the light-moderate precipitation over Yaan. The absorption of latent heat at the lower troposphere and the release of latent heat at the upper troposphere are larger at nighttime than at daytime by 1–2 times and 2–3 times, respectively. Both the peak value and the total release of latent heat over Yaan are significantly larger than those over the Tibetan Plateau, eastern China, and the western Pacific warm pool. These distinct local characteristics of the “rain city” Yaan are closely related to the interaction between the atmospheric circulation and the steep topography on the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau.     

Dependence of the simulated seeding effects of Cb cloud on the types of the AgI agents

Summary A one-dimensional kinematic model is used to investigate the effects of silver iodide seeding in the region of a Cb cloud between isotherms of –8°C and –12°C. The agent interaction with cloud atmosphere is simulated by an improved microphysical model version which includes phoretic processes. The behaviour of the different agent types is investigated using the maximum values of agent mixing ratios and corresponding agent particle masses and radii.It is shown that the agent residence time in the seeding zone significantly depends on vertical velocity. The residence time is comparable to that previously reported. On the other side, the final graupel production decreases slightly when vertical velocity increases, while the corresponding graupel production is quite different for agents used. The main agent nucleation mechanisms are the Brownian coagulation of cloud droplets, inertial impact of cloud droplets and deposition nucleation.With 9 Figures