日本福岛7.3级地震灾害损失总结与讨论

2021年2月13日,日本本州东岸近海发生7.3级地震,没有造成人员死亡,仅150余人受伤,导致建筑物和基础设施发生不同程度的破坏和功能中断。此次强震并未造成大量的人员伤亡和工程结构本体破坏,但出现非结构构件破坏较为普遍以及基础设施功能中断的情况。介绍了各机构的震后灾害损失快速评估工作,总结了工程结构破坏和功能影响、人员伤亡和经济损失情况。对此次地震的灾害特征进行了总结和思考,认为随着各地区抗震能力的提高,非结构构件破坏、地震灾害链、基础设施功能中断与恢复、抗震韧性将成为今后研究的重点。     

earthquake disaster rapid assessment for emergency response supported by high-precision data of hazard bearing body

The earthquake disaster rapid assessment(EDRA)is the core technical support for the post-earthquake emergency response. At present, with the popularization of high-precision population, social and economic data, most of the subordinate units of China Earthquake Administration(CEA)have heightened the precision of hazard bearing body data used in EDRA from the original county-level precision to the 30″×30″ precision. However, while the precision of fundamental data has been heightened, no efforts have been made to improve the main algorithms and the technical process of EDRA. It turns out that the assessment has become more accurate, but the problems of the time-consuming process(10-20 minutes, probably 20 minutes or more in great earthquakes)and the low-precision losses distributions that exposed in EDRA supported by county-level precision data remain unresolved.This paper introduces the high-precision(30″×30″)hazard bearing body data, and describes the principle of EDRA and its implementation under the support of county-level precision data at first. Then the paper elaborates the principle of improving EDRA's data foundation using high-precision hazard bearing body data, the principle of improving the computation efficiency and persisting the data precision in the assessment process by means of the cell-to-cell grid algebraic operation, and the method for improving the assessment speed through the segmentation and reorganization of the technical process of EDRA.It is validated that through the improvements, the EDRA has become more accurate and much less time-consuming(less than 1 minute), and is able to output high-precision(30″×30″)distributions of seismic losses. The high-precision hazard bearing body data of wide range are the simulated data but not the survey data. Though the data have been simulated based on the census data, there is still a gap between their accuracy and the real situation. Further research and optimization on the data are needed.     

基于WebGIS的分布式防震减灾系统的开发

首先简要介绍了已完成的大庆油田防震减灾系统,并在其基础上详细探讨了基于WebGIS的大庆油田分布式防震减灾系统的关键技术开发,其中包括系统的技术架构、功能组成、软硬件结构、计算机语言、数据库连接和分析模块的远程调用等。同时阐述了在现有的分布式防震减灾系统的基础上扩展利用遥感信息功能的问题。     

电网磁暴灾害风险影响因素研究综述

磁暴是源自太阳磁场剧烈变化的地球空间效应,随着电网规模的增大和电压等级的增高,磁暴灾害已经成为诱发电网故障风险的威胁之一.研究电力系统磁暴灾害风险的影响因素可为预防与控制其引发的电网事故提供重要参考.在分析历史典型磁暴事件的基础上,剖析了磁暴诱发电力系统故障的机理,阐述了故障传播与电力系统响应的过程,总结了近年来关于影响电力系统的地磁感应电流水平及其产生的变压器无功损耗方面的研究成果,从磁暴本身的特点和电力系统的参数与结构两方面将影响因素分类.以GIC标准模型,通过改变磁暴扰动环境和电力系统参数,说明了各因素对电网磁暴灾害风险的影响程度,并比较了不同因素影响后果的差异,最后指出了尚未解决的问题和可能的研究方向.     

基于WebGIS的防震减灾信息及辅助决策系统的二次开发

本文在单机版某油田防震减灾信息及辅助决策系统的基础上,详细探讨了基于WebGIS的防震减灾信息及辅助决策系统的二次开发,其中包括系统的软硬件结构、计算机开发语言、数据库连接和远程调用等。最后阐述了在现有的二次开发防震减灾系统的基础上还需要继续完善的功能和解决的问题,如并行处理及基础信息的及时更新等。     

地震灾害基本特点及防震减灾对策的几点思考

摘要：本文从地震灾害的源一地震和地震灾害的客体一震区和社会环境两方面分析得出地震灾害的几个基本特点：瞬间突发性、破坏与损失的严重性、时空强不均匀性、次生灾害多样性等，并由此思考了防震减灾对策的几个问题。     

民众灾害意识国内研究现状与趋势——基于科学计量学和文献内容分析的联合诊断

提升“灾害意识”是改善减灾行动增强减灾能力的先决条件。然而,灾害意识作为减灾领域乃至广大社会随时随处可闻可见的高频用语,关于其各个方面的学术研究尚不充分。本文基于CNKI数据库,采用Cite Space软件,通过对1990—2019年已发表的与灾害意识相关的中文文献的科学计量,同时辅以对主要文献的内容分析,梳理和诊断了民众灾害意识研究的国内现状与发展趋势。结果显示：(1)民众灾害意识研究已得到越来越多的关注,涉及学科领域宽广,呈现明显的多学科、跨学科特点;但相较其它灾害研究论题,特别是围绕灾害风险的研究而言,发文量偏少,关注度偏低。(2)已有灾害意识研究大体可分为“灾害意识调查测量、灾害意识提升的正规教育路径、灾害意识提升的大众科普宣传、自下而上民众及基层层面减灾与灾害意识、自上而下政府层面减灾对策与民众灾害意识”等五大方面,但整体而言,研究深度上这几大方面均还有很大的发展空间。而从灾种背景来看,以围绕地震和气候/气象灾害的研究相对集中。(3)民众灾害意识研究呈现如下总体发展趋势：(1)研究内容不断细化、深度不断加深,百花齐放态势明显;(2)与减灾实际需求特别是民众与基层需求的结合越来...     

Radiological aspects of red mud disaster in Hungary

One of the most severe industrial catastrophes happened in Kolontár, Hungary, on 4 October 2010. Red mud (bauxite residue) broke through the eroded wall of the red mud reservoir pond “Number X” and flooded the surrounding area. This led to the instant death of 10 people and the injury of more than 100 people. Red mud is enriched in radium and thorium isotopes; therefore, there is a chance that this flooding will increase radionuclide concentrations of soils and also in air. In this study we have examined the site to assess the realistic radiological risks. For the risk assessment the following parameters were determined: gamma dose rate, radon concentration, radionuclide concentration of red mud and air dust concentration. It was found that the radiation dose exposure resulting from red mud contamination was < 0.045 mSv y^?1 (excluding radon), which can be considered negligible when compared to the average annual effective dose from natural sources (2.4 mSv y^?1).     

阪神地震对大城市防震减灾工作的启示

１９９５年１月１７日，日本关西兵库县南部发生７．２级地震（阪神地震），神户一带遭受巨大损失，人员伤亡惨重，这次地震是自唐山地震之后近２０年来，世界上最引人注目的一次地震事件。本文首先从地震预报的角度，简要地介绍了阪神地震前观测到的中短期前兆异常，包括震群活动、地震空区，水中氯离子浓度增加以及低频电磁辐射等，分析了阪神地区的地震危险性，指出在中期预测圈定的强震危险区，加强短临预测的跟踪，是最佳地震对策，也是起到减轻地震灾害，取得实际御防效果的基础．同时提出推进工程抗震研究，发展城市抗震工程学，提高城市综合防御地震危害的必要性。最后，文中对近期我国东部震情作了简要分析，并对强化监测，努力捕捉短临前兆信息，提出了相应的建议。     

熵权决策法在地震灾害风险评价中的应用

为了更好地评价和比较城市的地震灾害风险,建立了基于熵权的新的地震灾害风险指数(EDRI)模型。在地震灾害风险指数的建立过程中,根据信息熵理论计算熵权,采用熵权与专家意见相结合的方法确定风险指数的综合权重,从而使模型权重的确定更加合理。通过算例分析,新的计算模型可以降低城市地震灾害风险指数对专家主观意见的依赖,从而使计算变得更加客观、科学。     

“互联网+”时代发展下的防震减灾宣传工作研究

随着“互联网+”时代的到来,人们接受信息的方式发生了翻天覆地的变化,越来越多的人们尤其是年轻人更愿意通过移动App、门户网站等来获取信息。为了顺应时代的变化,防震减灾宣传平台也需要转变宣传工作形式,更加注重碎片化、即时性、形象化的传播。结合“互联网+”时代信息通讯的实际特点,在分析当前防震减灾宣传工作存在的重要问题基础上,以“互联网+”时代信息传递技术为主要发展特点,提出防震减灾科普知识泛在化宣传新模式,并根据泛在化宣传模式的特征,设计开发基于iOS系统的泛在化宣传资源,为防震减灾宣传工作提供基于移动设备的数字化资源支持。该研究对移动互联网时代地震科普宣传作了新的探讨与尝试,对于当前及未来全民普及防震减灾科学知识有积极的促进作用。      

利用多源信息方法预测煤矿水害

煤层顶底板突水是一种受许多因素控制的动态现象,其影响因素是多种多样的。本文将地球物理技术与GIS技术进行有机结合,利用地理信息系统作为平台,把三维地震、电法、构造地质、水文地质等多源信息进行融合,综合确定各要素属性特征及其相互联系,突出有用的专题信息,建立考虑各种影响因素的煤矿水害预测模型,对煤矿采区的突水危险程度做更为科学、准确的预测。     

How much water swept over the Lake Nyos dam during the 1986 gas disaster?

The toxic aerosol of water and carbon dioxide which was released from Lake Nyos in August 1986 passed over the natural dam which confines the lake and devastated the valleys to the north. The gas release generated a wave of water which swept across the lake surface and damaged vegetation on the eastern and southern shore. However, the vegetation to either side of the spillway was undamaged and therefore, despite a recent suggestion to the contrary, any wave of water which passed over the dam could have been no more than a few centimetres high.     

测震数据实时备份与灾备处理中心建设

以江苏省测震台网为例,介绍灾备处理中心数据传输方法、系统框架、子系统建设关键以及存在的问题和解决方案,并对运行效果给予评价。江苏省测震台网采用SDH/MSTP有线专线和4G无线网络同步实时传输方式建立备份信道,原主信道数据由数采以太网口采集,备份信道数据由数采串口采集,从而实现测震数据的实时备份。现已建成溧阳地震台灾备处理中心,部署实时波形汇集交换、数据存储备份、自动速报、人工速报和信息发布、运行监控5个子系统,确保地震监测系统安全稳定运行。     

Effect of rock fragment embedding on the aeolian deposition of dust on stone‐covered surfaces

Many stone‐covered surfaces on Earth are subject to aeolian deposition of atmospheric dust. This study investigates how the deposition of dust is affected when rock fragments become gradually more embedded in the ground or, inversely, become more concentrated on the surface. Experiments were executed in an aeolian dust wind tunnel with eight different types of pebbles. The following parameters were measured: dust deposition on the pebbles, dust deposition between and underneath pebbles, total dust deposition (pebbles + inter‐pebble space), and the fraction, of total deposition, of dust caught by the pebbles alone. The absolute amount of dust deposition and the dust deposition density (dust deposition per unit surface) were studied for each parameter. The effects exerted by pebble size, pebble flattening, pebble elongation and wind speed were also investigated. Dust patterns on and around pebbles were also studied via flow visualization. The absolute amount of dust settling on pebbles decreases the more that the pebbles become embedded. Dust deposition density on pebbles, on the other hand, increases with embedding. The more pebbles become embedded in the soil, the more efficient the process of dust deposition on pebbles becomes. Dust deposition between and underneath pebbles increases with pebble embedding. Dust deposition density between and underneath pebbles is maximum at 50 per cent embedding, showing that in this area dust deposition is most efficient when pebbles are halfway embedded. Total deposition slightly decreases the more pebbles become embedded, but total dust deposition density increases with embedding. Aerodynamic flow separation and diverging and converging airflow play an important role in the process of dust deposition on stone‐covered surfaces. The more pebbles protrude above the soil, the more they act as an obstacle and the more they disturb the air and dust flow creating scouring zones, flow separation bubbles and shelter areas for the dust. All these effects diminish as pebbles become more embedded in the soil. However, perturbations in dust patterns remain visible until pebbles have disappeared entirely. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

底层框架砖房的震害预测方法

随着城市建设的发展和人口密度的增大，地震对人类的危害变得越来越大，做好建筑物震害预测工作具有非常重要的现实意义，根据“合肥市防震减灾信息系统”中合肥市中市区底层框架砖房的抗震调查资料，用结构易损性分析方法对该类房屋的未来震害进行了预测分析。     

5G技术背景下防震减灾科普宣传活动的传播策略

5G技术高速发展带来了一场数字技术革命,这对防震减灾信息的传播与服务效果提出更高要求,也为其提供新的发展契机。防震减灾作为国家战略层面的重要工作,既关系到现实民生,又影响到社会秩序稳定,其科普宣传活动和知识内容需要更多元化的传播方式,公众对科普工作、科普知识的关注也呈现出一种指数级的增长趋向。本文通过对已有防震减灾科普传播形式的分析,对5G技术如何助力防震减灾科普宣传活动的传播内容、形式、媒介和理念等进行思考,为防震减灾科普宣传活动注入活力并提出可行性对策建议。      

石河子市建筑物群体、人员和经济损失动态震害预测及设防效益分析

根据石河子市建筑物、人口、经济现状和社会发展情况,按照建筑物、人口和经济增长率,对石河子市未来10年地震灾害损失和人员伤亡进行了动态预测,结果表明,一方面由于经济的发展和人口的增加,将有更多的社会财富和人口将受潜在破坏性地震的威胁,绝对经济损失将不断增加;另一方面,由于新建的设防建筑物的增加,建筑物总体抗震能力不断增强,在相同地震烈度影响下,其相对经济损失和人员伤亡将不断减少.并对石河子市建筑物总体抗震能力、抗震设防的效益进行了初步分析.     

不同土壤中含油污水污染区的电性变化研究及污染区探测

本文利用室内电阻率测试的方法研究了研究了饱和土和不饱和土两类土中含油污水的侵入量对其导电性的影响.测试结果表明,对于不饱和土,含油污水的侵入会改变土的饱和度从而引起其电阻率的降低,侵入量越大其电阻率越低;而饱和土的电阻率随含油污水侵入量的增大而增大直到趋于稳定.基于此,通过室内模拟土层污染和野外实地观测污染土层的方式研究了含油污水污染不同饱和度土层的电剖面异常特征,在不饱和土层中污染区域表现为相对低阻异常区而在饱和土层中表现为相对高阻异常区.通过对比不同时期的监测结果显示异常区的范围随污染区的变化而变化,并可反映出污染区的实际分布.文章分析了利用电阻率法进行含油污水污染地下介质调查的几个模糊点,对提高探测效果具有指导意义.