寒潮天气过程对风/光伏发电资源要素数值预报技巧影响的检验分析

基于ERA-5再分析资料和NCEP的GFS预报系统的120 h预报资料,对华东地区2020年12月至2021年3月期间9次寒潮过程中数值模式的近地面风速和向下净短波辐射通量预报技巧进行了检验,检验结果表明：1)GFS预报系统在提前1～4 d均能准确预报出寒潮过程（降温幅度和最低温度）,平均预报命中率均在80%以上。2）在寒潮过程中,近地面风速会明显增强,虽然0～2级风速预报评分明显降低,但对3～5级和6级以上的风速预报评分（Threat Score, TS）反而较一般天气过程高;而向下净短波辐射通量预报相对误差要比一般天气过程偏大,尤其在寒潮爆发日最大。3）在寒潮过程中预报技巧具有明显日变化特征,0～2级风速预报技巧下午最低,尤其在寒潮最强日最明显;3～5级风速预报技巧在18:00（协调世界时）左右最低,在寒潮最强日夜间都很低。而向下净短波辐射通量预报下午以后预报误差显著增大,尤其在寒潮爆发日误差最大。4）在寒潮过程中,预报技巧随着预报时效的延长而降低,其中24 h预报TS评分较高,误差较小。72 h评分较低,误差较大。     

Signatures of Air–Wave Interactions Over a Large Lake

The air–water exchange of momentum and scalars (temperature and water vapour) is investigated using the Lake-Atmosphere Turbulent EXchange (LATEX) dataset. The wind waves and swell are found to affect the coupling between the water surface and the air differently. The surface-stress vector aligns with the wind velocity in the presence of wind waves, but a wide range of stress–wind misalignment angles is observed during swell. The momentum transport efficiency decreases when significant stress–wind misalignment is present, suggesting a strong influence of surface wave properties on surface drag. Based on this improved understanding of the role of wave–wind misalignment, a new relative wind speed for surface-layer similarity formulations is proposed and tested using the data. The new expression yields a value of the von Kármán constant (\(\kappa \)) of 0.38, compared to 0.36 when using the absolute wind speed, as well as reduced data fitting errors. Finally, the ratios of aerodynamic to scalar roughness lengths are computed and various existing models in the literature are tested using least-square fitting to the observed ratios. The tests are able to discriminate between the performance of various models; however, they also indicate that more investigations are required to understand the physics of scalar exchanges over waves.     

Wave Climate in the Caspian Sea Based on Wave Hindcast

The results of wind wave hindcast for the Caspian Sea for the period of 1979–2017 are presented. The WAVEWATCHIII wave model and wind forcing from the NCEP/CFSR reanalysis are used. The modeling is performed on the unstructured grid with the spacing to 1 km in the coastal zone. Mean and extreme values of wave height, length, and period are provided. It is shown that the maximum height of waves of 3% probability of exceedance is 11.7 m. The interannual variability of wave parameters is analyzed. No unambiguous trend towards increase or decrease in the storm activity was revealed over the hindcasting period.     

Turbulent Airflow and Wave-Induced Stress Over the Ocean

We examine the structure of turbulent airflow over ocean waves. Based on an analysis of wind and wave observations derived from a moored and floating Air–Sea Interaction Spar buoy during the Shoaling Waves Experiment field campaign, we show that the cospectra of momentum flux for wind–sea conditions follow established universal scaling laws. Under swell-dominant conditions, the wave boundary layer is extended and the universal cospectral scaling breaks down, as demonstrated previously. On the other hand, the use of peak wave frequency to reproduce the universal cospectra successfully explains the structure of the turbulent flow field. We quantify the wave-coherent component of the airflow and this clarifies how ocean waves affect momentum transfer through the wave boundary layer. In fact, the estimated wave-induced stresses for swell-dominant conditions explain the anomalous cospectral shapes observed near the peak wave frequency.     

风浪要素数值实景监测的设计与实现

运用现代数码技术,设计了风浪要素数值化实景监测,对近距离局域风浪进行非入侵式自动图像监测与风浪数值信息提取.在设计中采取不同于常规风浪遥感散射回波反演的方式,通过人机互动,应用相似性搜索判别原理,实现了风浪场中波峰线的自动识别与绘制,并以此为基础进行实况分析与运算,获得波长、周期、波速、波向、波龄以及波高、波陡等各项要素的统计值.针对波高与其他波浪参数无直接解析关系式问题,依据风浪非线性动力统计特性的谱模型,建立了波高逆运算函数方法,通过实验调试参数由实景监测的波长推导出波高等风浪结构要素.经实验室及室外自然条件测试,该监测系统能给出合理的观测时段的风浪要素统计特征值.     

Wind Waves in the Northwestern Black Sea

The study presents the results of long-term monitoring of wind waves was carried out on the offshore fixed gas production platform in the northwestern part of the Black Sea in 1995–2011. The analysis of more than 31000 wave records provided reliable statistical characteristics of wind waves in the analyzed region. It was found that the maximum wave height reached 4.8 m in summer and 8.76 m in winter. The maximum hourly wave height exceeds significant wave height by 1.9 times in the vast majority of cases. The method of annual maxima revealed that in the Karkinit Bay the maximum wave height with the return period of 50 years is equal to 9.2 m.     

Simulation and Analysis of Sea Floods in the Don River Delta

Storm surges and wind waves in the Taganrog Bay (the Sea of Azov) are simulated with the ADCIRC+SWAN numerical model, and the mechanisms of the Don River delta flooding are analyzed. It is demonstrated that the most intensive flooding of the Don River delta occurs in case of southwestern wind with the speed of not less than 15 m/s. A storm surge leads to the intensification of wind waves in the whole Taganrog Bay due to the general sea level rise. As a result, the significant wave height near the Don River delta increases by 0.5–0.6 m.     

三层模式中风场对背风波的影响

为了研究风场对背风波的影响,针对边界层附近为弱稳定层结的背风波,建立了一个三维三层的理论模型和线性计算模式,分析了各层中风速和风向的变化对背风波特征的影响,揭示了气流过孤立山脉产生背风波的有利风场条件。结果表明：背风波的波长、振幅等特征对各层风速和风向的变化具有相当的敏感性,波长随着低、高层风速的增大而增大,随着中层风速的增大先减小后增大;振幅随着低、中层风速的增大先增大后减小,随着高层风速的增大而增大。此外,风速和上下层风向切变的增大均使背风波的形态逐渐由横波型转为辐散型,但是上下层风向的切变对背风波形态的影响比风速更为显著。     

基于WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ模式的近10年南海波候统计分析

基于国际上较为先进的第三代海浪数值模式WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ,以QuikSCAT/NCEP混合风场为驱动场,得到南海1999年8月-2009年7月的海浪场,并据此对近10 a南海的波候特征进行分析.结果表明:(1)南海受季风影响显著,风场和浪场的对应关系在季风盛行季节明显好于季风过渡季节.(2)南海南部海域的浪场对海表...     

利用浮标站观测资料分析台风“贝碧嘉”过境时风浪变化特征

利用北部湾海域一个大型气象浮标站获取的台风"贝碧嘉"过程实测数据,分析了该台风过境时风浪变化特征。分析结果表明:台风的风速时程变化曲线呈"M"形双峰分布,台风眼壁区风速最大,前眼壁区风速大于后眼壁区,前眼壁区和后眼壁区最大风速分别为22.6m/s和20.8m/s;台风眼区气压和风速最小,波高和波周期最大,其中眼区最大风速为2.7m/s,最大波高为5.4m,最大波周期为5.5s;波高最大值出现时间滞后风速最大值40min;台风眼区以外的波高与风速正相关;在台风从浮标站南侧经过期间,风向和波向均沿着顺时针方向旋转,其中风向和波向10min最大旋转角度分别为50°和150°;风向与波向不在同一个方向,两者之间的夹角平均为171°。     

Comparing Numerical and Satellite Data on Wind Wave Fields in the Indian Ocean

The results of computation of wind wave fields for two versions of the WAM model (the original version of the European wind wave model WAM4 and its modified version WAM4-M) are compared with satellite measurements. The mapped data on the daily averaged wave height obtained from the data of combined measurements of several satellite altimeters are used. Significant correlation between wind wave series for both models and satellite data is demonstrated as well as the advantage of the WAM4-M model over its original version in accuracy and some statistical parameters of comparison with the altimeter. Advantages and shortcomings of numerical and remote sensing methods of wind wave investigation at the ocean scales are noted.     

30—50 天振荡动能特性及其与平均气流正压不稳定能的转换

该文利用冬季500 hPa的欧洲中心（ECMWF）网格点逐日资料，分析了30—50天振荡的E矢量分布、动能特性及平均气流的正压不稳定能转换特征，从而得到:30—50天振荡的能量传播与西风急流的位置有密切的关系，在西风大风速区作纬向能量传播，在小风速区作指向赤道的经向传播；在急流的出口区有较强的正压能转换，低频振荡从基本流中获得能量，使这里的低频动能最大，并表现出较强的正压特性，与低纬度的斜压特性形成鲜明对照。     

Numerical Simulations of Laminar Air–Water Flow of a Non-linear Progressive Wave at Low Wind Speed

A numerical simulation for two-dimensional laminar air–water flow of a non-linear progressive water wave with large steepness is performed when the background wind speed varies from zero to the wave phase speed. It is revealed that in the water the difference between the analytical solution of potential flow and numerical solution of viscous flow is very small, indicating that both solutions of the potential flow and viscous flow describe the water wave very accurately. In the air the solutions of potential and viscous flows are very different due to the effects of viscosity. The velocity distribution in the airflow is strongly influenced by the background wind speed and it is found that three wind speeds, $U=0$ , $U=u_m$ (the maximum orbital velocity of a water wave), and $U=c$ (the wave phase speed), are important in distinguishing different features of the flow patterns.     

Wind and Wave Data Analysis for the Aegean Sea - Preliminary Results

In this paper, a statistical analysis on wind and wave buoy measurements and wind and wave model forecasts obtained during a two-year period (1999-2001) is presented with reference to four characteristic near-shore sites of the Aegean Sea. The measurements are a main product of the "POSEIDON" system aiming at the monitoring and forecasting of the state of the Greek seas, operated by the National Centre for Marine Research (NCMR). Although the two-year period is rather short for a thorough analysis of the local wind and wave climate, yet the obtained results, presented herein for the first time, reveal some interesting features of the corresponding wave and wind characteristics. Comparisons between the measurements and the forecast results are also performed at the locations under consideration. It is found that (i) wind speeds obtained from the POSEIDON weather forecasting system are, in general, in agreement with the measurements, except for high wind speeds which are systematically underestimated, (ii) the WAM model can successfully follow the monthly and over year trend of the evolution of wind and wave characteristics, but face significant problems for efficient sea-state forecasting. Finally, the overall pattern of the wind/wave climate for the entire Aegean Sea as obtained from the models is presented by means of the spatial distribution of the mean annual wind and sea-state intensity.     

Observation of wind shear during evening transition and an estimation of submicron aerosol concentrations in Beijing using a Doppler wind lidar

The wind speed and direction measured over six months by a Doppler wind lidar (Windcube-8) were compared with wind cup anemometers mounted on the 325-m Beijing meteorological tower (BMT). Five mountain–plain wind cases characterized by wind direction shear were selected based on the high-frequency (1.1 s) wind profile of the Windcube-8 and analyzed with 1-h mesoscale surface weather charts. Also analyzed was the relationship between in-situ PM₁ (aerodynamic diameter ≤ 1 μm) concentrations measured at 260 m on BMT and the carrier-to-noise ratio (CNR) of the co-located Windcube-8. The results showed that the 10-min averaged wind speed and direction were highly correlated (R = 0.96–0.99) at three matched levels (80, 140, and 200 m). The evening transition duration was 1–3 h, with an average wind speed of 1 m s^–1 at 80 m above the ground. In addition, there was a zero horizontal-wind-speed zone along the wind direction shear line, and in one case, the wind speed was characterized by a Kelvin–Helmholtz gravity wave. The variability of the PM₁ concentrations was captured by the CNR of the Windcube-8 in a fair weather period without the long-range transport of dust.     

Sea-Spray-Generation Dependence on Wind and Wave Combinations: A Laboratory Study

Boundary-Layer Meteorology - We investigate the effects of wind–wave interactions on the surface sea-spray-generation flux. To this end, the Marine Aerosol Tunnel Experiment (MATE2019) was...     

南海北部风浪特征的计算

探讨南海北部海域风浪成长时有效波高与风速、风时、风区之间的关系,同时分析了5种风浪要素的推算方法,探讨其在南海北部海域的适用性。结果表明：1）在南海北部,风速和风时呈现线性增长的关系,风速越大,风浪从过度状态成长到充分成长状态所需风时就越长;风速大小和风区长度之间满足平方关系,风速越大,风浪充分成长所需风区长度就越长。2）在南海北部,有效波高的大小与风速的大小、风时的长短、风区的长度3者密切相关。3）SMB方法、W ilson IV方法和青岛方法,在计算南海北部的风浪关系中体现出了一定的稳定性和适应性。     

Surface film effect on short wind waves

The results are presented of experiments with artificial slicks carried out at different wind velocities and with different films in natural conditions. In particular, variations of the wave number and frequency spectra of the short wind waves at wavelengths of 4 cm-1 m and frequencies of 2–20 Hz in slicks are analysed. It is shown that ripple flattening at gentle (up to 1–1.5 m s⁻¹) and moderate (>5–6 s⁻¹) winds can be described in the framework of the theoretical model of the variability of centimetre-waves taking into account their anomalous attenuation due to the elastic film. The measurements of the natural film elasticity are taken and its considerable growth in natural slicks is registered; the estimate of the elasticity sufficient for the formation of film slicks is given. The influence of ripple flattening on the transformation of the wind velocity field above the film slicks and the amplification of decimeter-waves caused by this are discussed; correct estimates of the effects observed are made.     

The westerly anomalies over the tropical pacific and their dynamical effect on the enso cycles during 1980–1994

In this paper, the zonal wind anomalies in the lower troposphere over the tropical Pacific during 1980–1994 are analyzed by using the observed data. The results show that during the formation of the 1982/83, 1986/87 and 1991 / 92 ENSO events, there were the larger westerly anomalies in the lower troposphere over the equatorial Pacific. Moreover, it is explained by using the correlation analyses that the westerly anomalies over the equatorial Pacific could cause the warm episodes of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. A simple air-sea coupled model is used to discuss theoretically the dynamical effect of the observed westerly anomalies of wind stress near the sea surface of the equatorial Pacific on the ENSO cycle occurred in the period of 1981–1983. It is shown by using the theoretical calculations of the equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave and Rossby waves responding to the forcing of the observed anomalies of zonal wind stress near the sea surface of the equatorial Pacific that the westerly anomalies of wind stress near the sea surface of the equatorial Pacific make significant dynamical effect on the ENSO cycles occurred in the period of 1982–1983.