Model-based clustering of Baltic sea-level

Long (>30 years) monthly records of relative sea-level heights from tide gauges in the Baltic sea are analyzed. Time series clustering based on forecast densities is applied in order to describe regional sea-level variability in the Baltic Sea in terms of future relative heights. The tide gauge records are clustered on the basis of forecasts at 3-month and 6-month horizons. For the 3-month horizon, the results of the cluster analysis show a fairly spatial coherency in terms of grouping together locations from the same sub-basin, with the northern records in the Bothnian Sea and Gulf of Finland clustering together, followed by the tide gauges in the Baltic Proper and lastly the southernmost stations in the western Baltic. For the 6-month horizon, the results show a higher degree of homogeneity between different locations, but a clear separation between the stations at the Baltic entrance and the tide gauges inside the Baltic basin. Moreover, when considering detrended records, reflecting mainly the seasonal cycle, the clustering results are more homogeneous and suggest a distinct response of coastal sea-level in spring and in summer.     

Geoid Validation on the Baltic Sea Using Ship-borne GNSS Data

Abstract

We studied geoid validation using ship-borne global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) on the Baltic Sea. We obtained geoid heights by combining GNSS–inertial measurement unit observations, tide gauge data, and a physical sea model. We used two different geoid models available for the area. The ship route was divided into lines and the lines were processed separately. The GNSS results were reduced to the sea surface using attitude and draft parameters available from the vessel during the campaign. For these lines, the residual errors between ellipsoidal height versus geoid height and absolute dynamic topography varied between 0 and 15?cm, grand mean being 2?cm. The mean standard deviations of the original time series were approximately 11?cm and reduced to below 5?cm for the time series filtered with 10?min moving average. We showed that it is possible to recover geoid heights from the GNSS observations at sea and validate existing geoid models in a well-controlled area.     

Genotoxic impacts in Klaip da Marine port and B ting oil terminal areas (Baltic Sea)

Genotoxic effects were evaluated in the somatic and gonadal cells of bivalve and gastropod molluscs inhabiting different sites of Klaip da port area in Lithuania. The occurrence of aneuploidy and polyploidy of cells, meiotic injures, centromere dissociation and fragmented polyploid nuclei as cytogenetic indicators of environmental stressors was assessed in snails Lymnaea ovata . The highest level of environmental genotoxicity (in 43.2 and 46.2% of studied cells) was observed in the tissues of snails inhabiting Malk Bay in 1995 and 1996. Dredging and thus removal of contaminated sediments from Malk Bay resulted in significant decrease (up to 27.2% in 1999) of cytogenetic injures in molluscs studied over the period from 1997 to 1999. However, the frequency of cytogenetic disturbances in molluscs from Vilhelmo Channel was increasing (1.8 times) from 1995 to 1999. Therefore, the ecological safety of the biggest drinking water supply for Klaip da population became questionable. Assessment of cytogenetic damage in Mytilus edulis (MN test) and the crustacean, Balanus improvisus, (aneugenic effects) inhabiting the Baltic Sea at B ting oil terminal has shown the highest genotoxicity level in the zone of sewage effluents from Palanga town and Ma eikiai oil refinery plant. Extensive cytogenetic injuries in gonadal cells indicated the potential long-term hazards of pollutants to ecological health and integrity of aquatic species.     

Marine ferromanganese concretions from the polish exclusive economic zone: Influence of major inflows of north sea water

Ferromanganese concretions within the Polish Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) are found mainly in the depth range 60–70 m on the thresholds between the Bomholm Basin and Slupsk Furrow and between the Gotland and Gdansk Basins. They also occur on elevations of the seafloor within the Bomholm Basin, on the southern slopes of Slupsk Furrow, and on the lower southwestern slopes of the Gotland Basin. They occur mainly as surface deposits on very thin (<0.2 m), poorly sorted lag deposits. The concretions are predominantly discoidal and are formed around a single nucleus of sandstone or erratic rock of variable size. The ferromanganese oxides display internal layering with alternate layers of almost black manganese oxides and buff iron axyhydroxides. The concretions consist mainly of todorokite and quartz, with lesser amounts of feldspar, kaolinite, and montmorillonite. They are characterized by relatively high Fe/Mn ratios (0.9–3.5) and high contents of detrital elements (Ti, Na, K, Ca, and Mg) but low contents of the transition elements (Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr, Co, and Ni). The deposits are associated with the very dynamic environment near the halocline, where internal waves erode the sediment and create conditions of sediment nondeposition favorable for the formation of the concretions. A number of factors contribute to the high abundance of ferromanganese concretions in the Baltic Sea. One is the high input of iron and manganese by the rivers draining into it This is a consequence of the widespread occurrence of bogs and swamps in the catchment area of the Baltic Sea, which results in the river waters having high humic acid contents and low pH. Another major factor is the buildup of dissolved iron and manganese in the anoxic basins of the Baltic Sea during periods of stagnation. These waters are flushed during major inflow events, when oxygenated water from the North Sea displaces the stagnant waters of the anoxic basins. Iron and manganese in these waters are then transported laterally and deposited in the surface of ferromanganese concretions on topographic highs. We believe that the iron is deposited rapidly after such events but that the manganese is deposited over a much longer time period, thus accounting for the layering in the concretions. The rate of deposition of these elements is essentially controlled by the input of oxygen in the waters of the North Sea. These periods of major inflows are grouped but significant events, for concretions occur on average about 11 times per century. We therefore estimate that the concretions have grown much more slowly than previously thought (about 0.013–0.018 mm/yr), and that a concretion 20 mm in diameter would have an age of about 500–800 years. Higher concentrations of heavy metals have been recorded in the outer layers of the concretions, and it is possible that these can serve as indicators of heavy‐metal pollution in the Baltic Sea. The concretions range from sporadic to intermediate abundance. As such, they have no economic potential.     

The Baltic Sea environment and the European Union: Analysis of governance barriers

The EU enlargement brought the Baltic Sea into the sphere of EU environmental policymaking, making the sea, with the exception of Russia, an EU inland sea. Yet, the state of the Baltic Sea environment is deteriorating at an alarming pace. This paper describes the evolution of the EU governance of the Baltic Sea environment, focussing on governance barriers. The findings demonstrate how the choice of analytical lens influences the construction of governance barriers and the respective intervention strategies. Such understanding can help policy practitioners in their search for successful measures to improve the governance situation in the Baltic Sea region.     

Forecast of storm surge by means of artificial neural network

This study describes the construction and verification of a model of sea level changes during a storm surge, applying artificial neural network (ANN) methodology in hydrological forecasting in a tideless sea where the variation of water level is only wind generated. Some neural networks were tested to create the forecast model. The results of ANN were compared with observed sea-level values, and with the forecasts calculated by different routine methods. The results of verification show that the neural network methodology could be successfully applied in the routine, operational forecast service.     

Atmospheric Pb and Cd input into the Baltic Sea: a new estimate based on measurements

Bulk deposition samples were collected during a summer (1997) and a winter (1998) measurement campaign at four coastal stations along the southern Baltic Sea coast and on the Island of Gotland. The data were used to construct Pb and Cd deposition fields over the Baltic Sea. A weak gradient with decreasing deposition rates from the southwest towards the east and north was obtained for Pb. In the case of Cd, the spatial distribution pattern was characterized by an extreme deposition maximum at the Polish station on the Hel Peninsula. The total atmospheric input of Pb and Cd into the Baltic Sea was 550 and 33 t/year, respectively, and exceeds the riverine input by approximately about 50%. Previous measurement-based estimates were higher by a factor 2–3 and indicate a decrease of the atmospheric deposition during the past 10–15 years. The comparison with modelled deposition data yielded partly large differences and was impaired by the fact that 1990 emission inventories were used whereas our measurements were performed in 1997/1998.Relating our deposition estimate and the Pb/Cd input by rivers to the mean concentrations in Baltic Sea water, residence times of 0.29 and 3.6 years were obtained for Pb and Cd, respectively.     

A note on the economics of Swedish Baltic Sea fisheries

The cod stocks in the Baltic Sea are important not only for fisheries but for the entire ecosystem utilized by numerous stakeholders around the coast. All such activities have economic values. In this note the economics of the Swedish Baltic Sea cod fishery is estimated in relation to the sector's interaction with other users of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. The results show a negative resource rent for the fishery, € −5 million without public expenses (subsidies and administrative costs), and € −13 million including public expenses. The interactions between the fisheries and tourism, seal population, carbon dioxide emissions, recreational fishing, and discards are discussed, and when monetary estimates are available these are related to the estimated resource rent.     

RNA:DNA ratios of Baltic Sea herring larvae and copepods in embayment and open sea habitats

Elucidation of important nursery habitats for young fish can aid in the management and assessment of fish stocks. Herring (Clupea harengus) in the Baltic Sea primarily spawn in coastal areas, but larvae are also present in off-shore, open sea areas. To investigate if sheltered coastal habitats provide a better growth environment for larval herring, we compared short-term growth (as indexed by whole body RNA:DNA ratios) of larval herring from three habitat types of the northwest Baltic proper (sheltered inner bay, exposed outer bay, and open sea). In addition, we compared individual RNA content of adult female Eurytemora affinis (a common Baltic copepod) among these different habitats. High RNA levels in these copepods indicate high production of nauplii, which are important food for larval herring. Both RNA:DNA ratios of larval herring and RNA content of E. affinis were significantly greater in embayment habitats, suggesting that the sheltered coastal areas are high quality nursery habitats for young Baltic herring.     

Size matters: Short term loss and long term gain in a size-selective fishery

The maximum sustainable yield concept (MSY) and the ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM) have been recently adopted by the European Commission with the objective to achieve, over the long term, the highest possible sustainable yield from a given exploited stock. In this context, a fishing mortality MSY reference level (i.e., F_MSY) should be defined, taking into account recruitment, growth and natural mortality under current or recent ecosystem conditions. Thus, F_MSY is used as a generic term for a robust estimate of a fishing mortality level that is associated with high sustainable yield in the long term, assuming the current harvesting regime in terms of size selectivity. In this study, using the Eastern Baltic cod as an example, we challenge this rather simplified view showing that by using a different harvest selectivity and thus changing the size range of harvested cod, it is possible to largely increase the yield and revenue from the fishery compared to the fishing mortality stipulated in the management plan (i.e., F_MSY), while assuring sustainable high yield in the long term. Thus, implementing the MSY concept in terms of fishing mortality but neglecting selective harvesting effects will not achieve high long term sustainable yield for Eastern Baltic cod. The combination of size selective harvesting and economic reasoning may offer an important tool for the management of marine resources by potentially providing a common currency for the different stakeholders and offer guidance to achieve long term sustainability and human well-being. This would represent the natural step forward in the implementation of EAFM and MSY concepts.     

Effects of water exchange and vegetation on the macroinvertebrate fauna composition of shallow land-uplift bays in the Baltic Sea

Shallow bays with soft sediment bottoms are common habitats along the Swedish and Finnish Baltic Sea coastline. These bays undergo a process of geomorphometric evolution with the natural isostatic land-uplift process, whereby open bays and sounds decrease in depth and are gradually isolated from the sea, forming bays with narrow openings. This study tested the relationship between the morphometric isolation of the bays from the sea and the macroinvertebrate fauna community of these bays. Additionally, we tested the specific role of the submerged vegetation as an indicator of the macroinvertebrate fauna community. We chose two environmental factors for the analyses, water exchange of the bays and the taxon richness of the macroflora in the bays. We found a hierarchical relationship between water exchange, flora taxon richness, and fauna biomass and taxon richness using structural equation modelling: decreased biomass and taxon richness of fauna were related to decreased flora taxon richness, which in turn was related to decreased water exchange. Using multivariate redundancy analysis, the two environmental factors included in the model were found to explain 47.7% of the variation in the fauna taxon composition and 57.5% of the variation in the functional feeding groups of the fauna. Along the morphometric isolation gradient of the bays, the fauna assemblages changed from a community dominated by gastropods, bivalves, and crustaceans, to a community mainly consisting of a few insect taxa. Moreover, the proportion of predators, gathering collectors, and shredders increased while that of filtering collectors and scrapers decreased. Our results indicate that the density and taxon richness of macroinvertebrate fauna are higher in less morphometrically isolated bays than in more isolated bays in the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, we suggest that the taxon richness of macroflora can serve as an indicator of the fauna community.     

Effects of different types of mechanical disturbances on a charophyte dominated macrophyte community

Charophytes are unique and endangered macroalgae. Mechanical stress is known to damage charophyte communities, however, virtually nothing is known how such disturbance affect seasonal succession and recovery of charophyte communities. We examined the response of a shallow water charophyte community to different types and timing of disturbances by conducting seasonal in situ field experiment in a brackish water ecosystem. The disturbances associated with mechanical removal of vegetation or sediment had the largest impact on the charophyte community. Disturbances that only partly damaged the plants had minor effects and communities were characterized by fast recovery. The timing of disturbance had significant effects on the charophyte community with stronger effects when disturbed at the early stage compared to mid-stage of seasonal succession.     

Using Mean Sea Surface Topography for Determination of Height System Differences across the Baltic Sea

The mean sea surface topography in the Baltic Sea and adjacent waters is reliably known in the Nordic height system NH 60. Using this knowledge we estimate differences between NH 60, based on the Amsterdam zero point, and Russian, Polish, and German height systems along the southeastern coast of the Baltic Sea, based on the Kronstadt zero point. The differences agree within a few centimeters. We also make a simple study of the mean sea level difference between Kronstadt and Amsterdam (which is found to have been approximately 25 cm when sea level was still to be seen there).     

Organizational responsiveness: The case of unfolding crises and problem detection within HELCOM

How and to what extent do international organizations detect, process and react to different types of change within their policy domains? This study addresses this question by combining a unique data set consisting of policy documents from the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM) with data measuring ecosystem change in the Baltic Sea during the period 1980–2013. Here HELCOM's responses to two types of ecosystem changes are investigated: fast and visible (summer algae blooms) and slow and opaque (anoxic areas). Finally, this study assesses if the organizational reform of 2007, which introduced the ecosystem approach, has had any effects on HELCOM responsiveness. It is found that HELCOM, contrary to expectations, is only responding systematically to slow-moving and opaque processes but that this response confirms the anticipated organizational bottom-up pattern. The ecosystem approach reform seems to have had a negative effect on the responsiveness of HELCOM; however, a general trend is that HELCOM over time has become more responsive in the lower levels of the organization. The lack of an immediate effect regarding the ecosystem approach reform can serve as a reminder of the absence of panaceas in policy making in general, and in environmental governance in particular.