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1.
Abstract

This study contributes to the comprehensive assessment of flood hazard and risk for the Phrae flood plain of the Yom River basin in northern Thailand. The study was carried out using a hydrologic–hydrodynamic model in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS). The model was calibrated and verified using the observed rainfall and river flood data during flood seasons in 1994 and 2001, respectively. Flooding scenarios were evaluated in terms of flooding depth for events of 25-, 50-, 100- and 200-year return periods. An impact-based hazard estimation technique was applied to assess the degree of hazard across the flood plain. The results showed that 78% of the Phrae flood-plain area of 476 km2 in the upper Yom River basin lies in the hazard zone of the 100-year return-period flood. Risk analyses were performed by incorporating flood hazard and the vulnerability of elements at risk. Based on relative magnitude of risk, flood-prone areas were divided into low-, moderate-, high- and severe-risk zones. For the 100-year return-period flood, the risk-free area was found to be 22% of the total flood plain, while areas under low, medium, high and severe risk were 33, 11, 28 and 6%, respectively. The outcomes are consistent with overall property damage recorded in the past. The study identifies risk areas for priority-based flood management, which is crucial when there is a limited budget to protect the entire risk zone simultaneously.

Citation Tingsanchali, T. & Karim, F. (2010) Flood-hazard assessment and risk-based zoning of a tropical flood plain: case study of the Yom River, Thailand. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(2), 145–161.  相似文献   

2.
ABSTRACT

In this study, a GIS-based integration of multi-criteria analysis and the Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) terrain model was adopted to delineate potential flood hazard zones and vulnerability of the Ogun River Basin, Nigeria. Flood causative factors were used as input for multi-criteria analysis using an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and weighted overlay in ArcGIS 10.5 to generate potential flood hazard zones. The flood hazard map was overlaid with demographic population data to identify areas where vulnerable people and assets are located. The results show the varying degree of people’s susceptibility to flood hazards. Flood hazard zones were classified into Very High, High, Moderate, Low and Very Low, with area coverage of 1269.40, 14139.50, 7188.40, 17.41 and 0.85 km2, respectively (occupied by 466 290, 355 542, 69 554, 231 and 54 people, respectively). This study serves as a preliminary guide for early warning and policy decision-making for flood disaster risk reduction.  相似文献   

3.
ABSTRACT

The impact of climate change on hydrology and water salinity of a valuable coastal wetland (Anzali) in northern Iran is assessed using daily precipitation and temperature data from 19 models of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The daily data are transiently downscaled using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator to three climatic stations. The temperature is projected to increase by +1.6, +1.9 and +2.7°C and precipitation to decrease by 10.4%, 12.8% and 12.2% under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The wetland hydrology and water salinity are assessed using the water balance approach and mixing equation, respectively. The upstream river flow modelled by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool is projected to reduce by up to 18%, leading to reductions in wetland volume (154 × 106 m3), area (57.47 km2) and depth (2.77 m) by 34%, 21.1% and 20.2%, respectively, under climate change, while the mean annual total dissolved solids (1675 mg/L) would increase by 49%. The reduced volume and raised salinity may affect the wetland ecology.  相似文献   

4.
Flood modelling inputs used to create flood hazard maps are normally based on the assumption of data stationarity for flood frequency analysis. However, changes in the behaviour of climate systems can lead to nonstationarity in flood series. Here, we develop flood hazard maps for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, under nonstationary conditions using extreme value analysis, a coupled 1D–2D model and high-resolution topographical data derived from LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data. Our findings indicate that ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) influence the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall, while global sea-level rise causes nonstationarity in local sea levels, having an impact on flood risk. The detailed flood hazard maps show that areas of high flood potential are located along river banks, with 0.60 km2 of the study area being unsafe for people, vehicles and buildings (H5 zone) under a 100-year return period scenario.  相似文献   

5.
针对当前城市化所引起水系衰减、河流连通受阻以及由此所引起洪涝与水环境的问题,以秦淮河中、下游为例,选取1979和2006年两期流域遥感影像,分析了城市化影响下的下垫面变化特征;选取1980s和2009年的地形图对河流水系进行提取,借鉴景观生态学中河流廊道空间结构分析方法,通过不同时期水系分级,探讨了城市化对水系结构及其连通性的影响.结果表明:(1)城市化使得2006年城镇用地面积相比1979年增加84.54 km2,增加了9倍多,大量林草地、耕地以及水域转变成城镇用地;(2)河流长度在过去的30年里减少了41%,河道主干化趋势明显;河流发育呈现由多元到单一、由复杂到简单的趋势;(3)连通性参数连接率、实际结合度分别由原来的1.28、0.43下降到0.79、0.26,河流的连通性呈下降趋势.该研究将为城市化地区河流水系保护提供支持与参考.  相似文献   

6.
Radar rainfall estimation for flash flood forecasting in small, urban catchments is examined through analyses of radar, rain gage and discharge observations from the 14.3 km2 Dead Run drainage basin in Baltimore County, Maryland. The flash flood forecasting problem pushes the envelope of rainfall estimation to time and space scales that are commensurate with the scales at which the fundamental governing laws of land surface processes are derived. Analyses of radar rainfall estimates are based on volume scan WSR-88D reflectivity observations for 36 storms during the period 2003–2005. Gage-radar analyses show large spatial variability of storm total rainfall over the 14.3 km2 basin for flash flood producing storms. The ability to capture the detailed spatial variation of rainfall for flash flood producing storms by WSR-88D rainfall estimates varies markedly from event to event. As spatial scale decreases from the 14.3 km2 scale of the Dead Run watershed to 1 km2 (and the characteristic time scale of flash flood producing rainfall decreases from 1 h to 15 min) the predictability of flash flood response from WSR-88D rainfall estimates decreases sharply. Storm to storm variability of multiplicative bias in storm total rainfall estimates is a dominant element of the error structure of radar rainfall estimates, and it varies systematically over the warm season and with flood magnitude. Analyses of the 7 July 2004 and 28 June 2005 storms illustrate microphysical and dynamical controls on radar estimation error for extreme flash flood producing storms.  相似文献   

7.
黄暄伟 《湖泊科学》1989,1(1):21-27
太湖流域是中国最重要的经济区.流域面积36500km~2,六分之五为平原,有上海、无锡、苏州、杭州等重要城市.以太湖为中心和其周围的河网构成了流域水系的特点.治理和开发的目标是防洪、供水、水资源保护和航运.治理的方案充分发挥太湖的调蓄作用,规划了十项骨干工程,可使流域内收到十分显著的综合效益.其中以望虞河和太浦河最为重要,可以解决80%上游洪水的出路和从长江引水2.8km~3,缓解防洪和水污染的压力,建议及早兴建.  相似文献   

8.
ABSTRACT

Multisource rainfall products can be used to overcome the absence of gauged precipitation data for hydrological applications. This study aims to evaluate rainfall estimates from the Chinese S-band weather radar (CINRAD-SA), operational raingauges, multiple satellites (CMORPH, ERA-Interim, GPM, TRMM-3B42RT) and the merged satellite–gauge rainfall products, CMORPH-GC, as inputs to a calibrated probability distribution model (PDM) on the Qinhuai River Basin in Nanjing, China. The Qinhuai is a middle-sized catchment with an area of 799 km2. All sources used in this study are capable of recording rainfall at high spatial and temporal resolution (3 h). The discrepancies between satellite and radar data are analysed by statistical comparison with raingauge data. The streamflow simulation results from three flood events suggest that rainfall estimates using CMORPH-GC, TRMM-3B42RT and S-band radar are more accurate than those using the other rainfall sources. These findings indicate the potential to use satellite and radar data as alternatives to raingauge data in hydrological applications for ungauged or poorly gauged basins.  相似文献   

9.
In much of western United States destructive floods after wildfire are frequently caused by localized, short‐duration convective thunderstorms; however, little is known about post‐fire flooding from longer‐duration, low‐intensity mesoscale storms. In this study we estimate and compare peak flows from convective and mesoscale floods following the 2012 High Park Fire in the ungaged 15.5 km2 Skin Gulch basin in the northcentral Colorado Front Range. The convective storm on 6 July 2012 came just days after the wildfire was contained. Radar data indicated that the total rainfall was 20–47 mm, and the maximum rainfall intensities (upwards of 50 mm h?1) were concentrated over portions of the watershed that burned at high severity. The mesoscale storm on 9–15 September 2013 produced 220–240 mm of rain but had maximum 15‐min intensities of only 25–32 mm h?1. Peak flows for each flood were estimated using three independent techniques. Our best estimate using a 2D hydraulic model was 28 m3 s?1 km?2 for the flood following the convective storm, placing it among the largest rainfall‐runoff floods per unit area in the United States. In contrast, the flood associated with the mesoscale flood was only 6 m3 s?1 km?2, but the long‐duration flood caused extensive channel incision and widening, indicating that this storm was much more geomorphically effective. The peak flow estimates for the 2013 flood had a higher relative uncertainty and this stemmed from whether we used pre‐ or post‐flood channel topography. The results document the extent to which a high and moderate severity forest fire can greatly increase peak flows and alter channel morphology, illustrate how indirect peak flow estimates have larger errors than is generally assumed, and indicate that the magnitude of post‐fire floods and geomorphic change can be affected by the timing, magnitude, duration, and sequence of rainstorms. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Raise Beck is a mountain torrent located in the central Lake District fells, northern England (drainage area of 1·27 km2). The torrent shows evidence of several major flood events, the most recent of which was in January 1995. This event caused a major channel avulsion at the fan apex diverting the main flood flow to the south, blocking the A591 trunk road and causing local flooding. The meteorological conditions associated with this event are described using local rainfall records and climatic data. Records show 164 mm of rainfall in the 24 hours preceding the flood. The peak flood discharge is reconstructed using palaeohydrological and rainfall–runoff methods, which provide discharge values of 27–74 m3 s?1, and 4–6 m3 s?1, respectively. The flood transported boulders with b‐axes up to 1400 mm. These results raise some important general questions about flood estimation in steep mountain catchments. The geomorphological impact of the event is evaluated by comparing aerial photographs from before and after the flood, along with direct field observations. Over the historical timescale the impact and occurrence of flooding is investigated using lichenometry, long‐term rainfall data, and documentary records. Two major historical floods events are identified in the middle of the nineteenth century. The deposits of the recent and historical flood events dominate the sedimentological evidence of flooding at Raise Beck, therefore the catchment is sensitive to high magnitude, low frequency events. Following the 1995 flood much of the lower catchment was channelized using rip‐rap bank protection, re‐establishing flow north towards Thirlmere. The likely success of this management strategy in containing future floods is considered, based on an analysis of channel capacities. It is concluded that the channelization scheme is only a short‐term solution, which would fail to contain the discharge of an event equivalent to the January 1995 flood. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
1991年太湖地区洪涝灾害评估与人类活动的影响   总被引:4,自引:3,他引:1  
孙顺才  赵锐  毛锐  赵宏 《湖泊科学》1993,5(2):108-117
1991年6、7月间,太湖地区遭受特大洪涝灾害,受灾面积达3309km~2,直接经济损失达106亿元。梅雨暴雨是造成这次洪灾的直接原因,短时间内,降雨量达899mm,为100—200年一遇,超过该地区的承受能力。人类活动对加重灾情亦有着重要影响,包括:围垦与泥沙淤积,使河湖调蓄功能下降;太湖出口河道74.6%被封淤堵死,致使太湖水位达4.79m,超过历史最高记录;圩外面积减少及城市化发展等。治理对策包括充分发挥河湖调蓄功能;合理安排圩外调蓄流量,打通骨干排水河道及城市防洪系统建设等。  相似文献   

12.
Levees, channels and water storages built on the world's floodplain wetlands control flows for irrigation, flood mitigation and erosion management. Assessing their distribution and hydrological impacts through time and across broad extents is limited by significant costs and technical challenges. We tested the effectiveness of three new semi‐automated geographic information systems and traditional visual interpretation techniques for detecting earthworks. We used commercially or freely available two‐dimensional and three‐dimensional spatial imagery within 19 quadrats in an agricultural floodplain of the Murray–Darling Basin, southeastern Australia. Semi‐automated digital elevation model (DEM) analysis performed best for spatial accuracy (78% of earthworks correctly predicted within 25 m), overall classification accuracy (97.7%) and kappa (0.64), compared with traditional visual interpretation techniques using Landsat TM (52%, 96.3%, 0.39), SPOT (53%, 95.8%, 0.27) and aerial photography (72%, 97.2%, 0.31). DEM analysis also outperformed semi‐automated image segmentation (16%, 93%, 0.29) and integrated analysis (75%, 96.0%, 0.43) that used spectral information. Semi‐automated techniques were slow (DEM analysis: 27 418 s/km2; integrated analysis: 27 737 s/km2; and image segmentation: 1439 s/km2) compared with visual interpretation (Landsat TM: 109 s/km2; SPOT: 166 s/km2; and aerial photography: 276 s/km2); however, processing speed of semi‐automated techniques can be further increased without compromising accuracy. Semi‐automated techniques also offered operational autonomy following model calibration. High quality, cost‐effective earthwork mapping techniques, particularly the semi‐automated techniques in this study, are critical for understanding and managing ecosystem health, flood risk and water security in developed floodplains worldwide and should be implemented by governing institutions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1007-1012
Abstract

The effects of human activities on flood propagation, during the period 1878–2005, in a 190-km reach of the middle—lower portion of the River Po (Northern Italy) are investigated. A series of topographical, hydrological and inundation data were collected for the 1878 River Po geometry and the June 1879 flood event, characterised by an inundated area of 432 km2. The aim of the study is two-fold: (1) to show the applicability of flood inundation models in reconstructing historical inundation events, and (2) to assess the effects of human activities during the last century on flood propagation in the middle—lower portion of the River Po. Numerical simulations were performed by coupling a two-dimensional finite element code, TELEMAC-2D, with a one-dimensional finite difference code, HEC-RAS.  相似文献   

14.
Rainfall and flood data are relatively sparse in semi‐arid areas; hence there have been relatively few investigations into the relationships between rainfall inputs and flood generation in these environments. Previous work has shown that flood properties are influenced by a combination of precipitation characteristics including amount, intensity, duration and spatial distribution. Therefore floods may be produced by high intensity, short duration storms, or longer duration, low intensity rainfall. Most of this research has been undertaken in small catchments in either hyper‐arid or relatively high rainfall Mediterranean climates. This paper presents results from a 6 year data record in south‐east Spain from research conducted in two basins, the Rambla Nogalte (171 km2) and the Rambla de Torrealvilla (200 km2). Data cover an area of approximately 500 km2 and an annual average rainfall of 300 mm. At coarse temporal resolutions gauges spread over large areas record similar patterns of rainfall, although spells of rain show much more complexity; pulses of rain within storms can vary considerably in total rainfall, intensity and duration over the same area. The analysis for south‐east Spain shows that most storms occur over a period of less than 24 h, but that the number of rainfall events declines as the duration exceeds 8 h. This is at odds with data on floods for the study area suggesting that they are produced by storms lasting longer than 18 h. However, one flood event was produced by a very short (15 min) storm with high intensity rainfall. Most floods tended to occur in May/June or September, which coincides with wetter months of the year (September, October, December and May). Floods are also more highly related to the total rainfall occurring in a spell of rain, than to intensity. The complexity of storm rainfall increases with the storm total, which makes it difficult to generalize on the importance of rainfall intensity for flood generation. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
针对目前尚缺乏客观的流域梅雨划分指标的现状,本文依据最新的梅雨监测国家标准与NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,利用19862016年太湖流域水文年鉴逐日雨量整编资料,重新划分了太湖流域入/出梅日期,计算了梅雨特征量,构建了梅雨洪水指数(RFI),并对梅雨期超设计、超警戒洪水年的环流异常成因进行分析.研究表明:(1)新标准下太湖流域多年平均在6月17日入梅,7月11日出梅,梅雨期长度24 d,梅雨量266.8 mm;与历史序列相比,新标准确定的梅雨量一致率较高,其次是入梅时间和出梅时间.(2)雨日数和副高脊线北跳时间是影响入/出梅确定的两个重要因素,新标准将1992、2013年定为空梅,1986、1987、1989、1996、2005年历史入/出梅日期向后调整,1988、2007年出梅日期向前调整,更为合理地反映了梅雨的高温高湿气候特征,客观性较强.(3)梅雨量越大,雨强越大,太湖水位越高,流域越易涝;以梅雨洪水指数作为参考因子,考虑到影响太湖洪水形成的两个关键因子(梅雨期起涨水位、最大7 d降水量占梅雨量的比例),对入梅起涨水位异常偏高、因集中强降雨引起太湖洪水的指示意义较强.(4)高低纬环流配置关系密切,来自西太平洋经南海的偏南气流、印度洋经孟加拉湾的西南暖湿气流汇合后与来自北方的冷空气在太湖流域交汇,太湖流域垂直上升运动异常强烈,触发降雨层结不稳定能量释放,导致暴雨持续形成洪水.  相似文献   

16.
The 1994 Northridge earthquake occurred underneath a densely populated metropolitan area, and was recorded by over 200 strong motion stations in the metropolitan area and vicinity. This rare coincidence made it an ideal case to study, in statistical sense, the correlation of damage to structures with the level of strong shaking, in particular with respect to (1) instrumental characteristics of shaking and (2) the reported site intensity scale. In this paper, statistics for the incidence of red-tagged building in 1 × 1 km2 blocks in San Fernando Valley and Los Angeles is presented and analyzed, as function of the observed peak ground velocity or the local intensity of shaking. The ‘observed’ peak velocity is estimated from contour maps based on the recorded strong motion. The intensity of shaking is estimated from the published intensity map and from our modification of this map to make it more consistent with observed high damage to buildings in some localized areas. Finally, empirical scaling equations are derived which predict the average density of red-tagged buildings (per km2) as a function of peak ground velocity or site intensity of shaking. These scaling equations are specific to the region studied, and apply to Wooden Frame Construction, typical of post World War II period, which is the prevailing building type in the sample studied. These can be used to predict the density of red-tagged buildings per km2 in San Fernando Valley and in Los Angeles for a scenario earthquake or for an ensemble of earthquakes during specified exposure, within the framework of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Such predictions will be useful to government officials for emergency planning, to the insurance industry for realistic assessment of insured losses, and to structural engineers for assessment of the overall performance of this type of buildings.  相似文献   

17.
A semi-distributed hydrological model of the Upper Niger and the Inner Niger Delta is used to investigate the RCP 4.5 scenario for 41 CMIP5 GCMs in the 2050s and 2080s. In percentage terms, the range of change in precipitation is around four times as large as for potential evapotranspiration, which increases for most GCMs over most sub-catchments. Almost equal numbers of sub-catchment–GCM combinations experience positive and negative precipitation change. River discharge changes are equally uncertain. Inter-GCM range in mean discharge exceeds that of precipitation by three times in percentage terms. Declining seasonal flooding within the Inner Delta is dominant; 78 and 68% of GCMs project declines in October and November for the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. The 10- and 90-percentile changes in mean annual peak inundation range from ?6136 km2 (?43%) to +987 km2 (+7%) for the 2050s and ?6176 km2 (?43%) to +1165 km2 (+8.2%) for the 2080s.  相似文献   

18.
Sediment fingerprinting appears to offer a valuable alternative to direct monitoring for elucidating the provenance of suspended sediment and the relative importance of spatial zones or subcatchments comprising larger (>500 km2) drainage basins. Against this background, a quantitative composite fingerprinting technique, incorporating both statistically verified multicomponent signatures and a multivariate sediment-mixing model, has been employed to determine the spatial origin of contemporary suspended sediment transported from the upper and middle reaches of the River Exe (601 km2) and River Severn (4325 km2) basins, UK. Spatial origin is addressed in terms of the relative contribution from three distinct geological subareas constituting each study basin. The consistency of the composite fingerprinting approach is examined using the estimates for mean and seasonal variations in source area contributions and also a comparison between the results obtained for individual flood events and alternative lines of evidence provided by flood travel times and the spatial distribution of precipitation. It is argued that fingerprinting estimates for sediment provenance are consistent with existing information on suspended sediment yields from different subcatchments within the study basins, although in the Severn, the role of storage and remobilization in producing signature ‘averaging’ may complicate comparison of the fingerprinting data with typical floodwater routing times. Validation represents the greatest problem for the cost–benefit of fingerprinting and scope still exists for further refinement of the procedures involved. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):619-635
Abstract

The drawdown of Crombie Reservoir in November 2001 afforded the opportunity to examine the exposed sediments trapped since impoundment in 1868. Direct measurements of infill depth enabled an isopachyte map to be produced. Gravimetric conversion using measured bulk densities and a trap efficiency term indicated a long-term catchment sediment yield of 59.1 t km?2 year?1. Core stratigraphy analysis indicated that sediments were dark brown/black cohesive silty-muds with multiple sandy sub-units, representing a combination of discrete flood events and previous drawdown surfaces. Dating, constrained by mineral magnetic and 137Cs analysis, indicated that sedimentation rates have varied from 0.2 to 0.8 g cm?2 year?1, corresponding to a four-fold variation in catchment sediment yield (approximately 20–93 t km?2 year?1), most likely controlled by extensive conversion of moorland to woodland, and post-World War II agricultural expansion. The Crombie investigation is combined with other reservoir sedimentation surveys within the Midland Valley of Scotland. Area-specific sediment yields (t km?2 year?1) evidence a weak, though statistically significant (p > 0.05), positive correlation with catchment area (km2). The increase in area-specific yield with catchment area contradicts the decline, which is generally expected, and is taken to reflect the significance of channel erosion within water supply basins featuring mainly natural and semi-natural vegetation cover and low-intensity land management practices. With stable slopes channel erosion dominates and area-specific sediment yield increases downstream due to greater entrainment and transport potential. The high degree of scatter in the Midland Valley database reflects significant variations in the extent of land-use change and the local importance of agricultural improvements and afforestation practices.  相似文献   

20.
The study simulated the effect of using reservoir storage for reducing flood peaks and volumes in urban areas with the Dzorwulu basin in Accra, Ghana as case study. A triangulated irregular network surface of the floodplain was created using ArcGIS from ESRI by integrating digital elevation model and the map of the study area. The weighted curve number for the basin was obtained from the land use and soil type shape files using ArcGIS. The Soil Conservation Service curve number unit hydrograph procedure was used to obtain an inflow hydrograph based on the highest rainfall recorded in recent history (3–4 June 1995) in the study area and then routed through an existing reservoir to assess the impact of the reservoir on potential flood peak attenuation. The results from the analysis indicate that a total of 13.09 × 106 m3 of flood water was generated during this 10‐h rainstorm, inundating a total area of 6.89 km2 with a depth of 4.95 m at the deepest section of the basin stream. The routing results showed that the reservoir has capacity to store 34.52% of the flood hydrograph leading to 45% reduction in flood peak and subsequently 38.5% reduction in flood inundation depth downstream of the reservoir. From results of the study, the reservoir storage concept looks promising for urban flood management in Ghana, especially in communities that are over‐urbanized downstream but have some space upstream for creating the storage. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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