Arctic sea ice cover in connection with climate change

Recently published studies on key issues in the evolution of Arctic sea ice cover are reviewed and attempts to answer disputable questions are made in the research part of the work. It is shown that climate warming, manifested in an increase in the surface air temperature, and reduction in the ice cover develop with a high degree of agreement in summer. Based on this fact, anomalies of the September ice-cover area have been retrieved from 1900. They show a significant decrease in the 1930–1940s, which is almost twice as low as in 2007–2012. The influence of fluctuations in the flow of warm and salty Atlantic water is noted in variations in the winter maximum of the ice-cover area in the Barents Sea. An accelerated positive trend has been ascertained for the air temperature in late autumn–early winter in 1993–2012 due to an increase in the open water area in late summer. Inherent regularities of the ice-cover-area variability made it possible to develop a prediction of the monthly values of sea-ice extent with a head time from 6 months to 2 years. Their strong correlation with summer air temperature is used to estimate the onset of summer ice clearance in the Arctic.     

极区海洋对全球气候变化的快速响应和反馈作用

分析了全球气候变化与极区海洋的相互作用;集成极区快速变暖促使极区海洋出现快速变化的各种现象,如海冰快速变薄和退缩,格陵兰冰盖严重融化,北冰洋和南大洋碳池的固碳能力下降以及极地海洋酸化等.研究提出:北冰洋夏季海冰覆盖面积快速退缩,海冰覆盖面积在2012年8月26日呈现了记录以来的最低值,有模型预测到2035年北冰洋夏季将会见不到海冰.格陵兰冰盖的消融对全球海平面的上升和大洋环流均会产生影响,格陵兰冰盖全部融化将会使全球海平面上升7 m.通过近10 a的观测发现极地海域对大气二氧化碳的吸收能力不升反降,海水对大气二氧化碳的吸收趋向饱和,南大洋和西北冰洋碳吸收能力变弱.有模式预测,到21世纪末,北冰洋表层海水pH值将会降低0.23～0.45,成为全球海洋酸化最严重的海区,而南大洋的表层海水二氧化碳浓度在21世纪下半叶或将超过600μatm的水平,极地海洋酸化对海洋食物链和生态系统的影响可能成为不可逆转的损害.这些极区海洋的快速变化将对全球气候变化产生反馈作用.     

Arctic sea-ice motion and its relation to pressure field

Daily Arctic sea-ice motion maps during the winter seasons (December–March) from December 1988 to March 2003 derived from NSCAT, QuikSCAT, SSM/I, and AMSRE data by a wavelet analysis method have been merged with those derived from buoy data. These merged sea-ice motion data have been used to study the circulation regimes and winter-to-winter variability of Arctic sea-ice motion. The relation between sea-ice motion and the pressure field in the Arctic Ocean was also studied by applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to the monthly merged sea-ice motion data and the monthly pressure field data from IABP. The mean Arctic sea-ice motion map of the 15 winter seasons has two distinct features: the Beaufort Gyre and a cyclonic circulation system in the Eurasian Basin, which moves ice from the Laptev Sea to Fram Strait. The strengths and sizes of the two features change from one winter season to another. Seasons with a strong or normal Beaufort Gyre alternate with seasons with a weak or no Beaufort Gyre every one to three seasons. The principal components of the first two modes of PCA of the monthly sea-ice motion are closely correlated with their counterparts of the monthly pressure field in the Arctic Ocean. The mode-one components of these two anomalies alternate between anticyclonic and cyclonic circulation systems. The correlation between Arctic Oscillation indexes and the principal components of the first mode of PCA of the monthly Arctic sea-ice motion is low but statistically significant.     

Impacts of climate variability and change on fishery-based livelihoods

There is increasing concern over the consequences of global warming for the food security and livelihoods of the world's 36 million fisherfolk and the nearly 1.5 billion consumers who rely on fish for more than 20% of their dietary animal protein. With mounting evidence of the impacts of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, the resulting impacts on fisheries livelihoods are likely to be significant, but remain a neglected area in climate adaptation policy. Drawing upon our research and the available literature, and using a livelihoods framework, this paper synthesizes the pathways through which climate variability and change impact fisherfolk livelihoods at the household and community level. We identify current and potential adaptation strategies and explore the wider implications for local livelihoods, fisheries management and climate policies. Responses to climate change can be anticipatory or reactive and should include: (1) management approaches and policies that build the livelihood asset base, reducing vulnerability to multiple stressors, including climate change; (2) an understanding of current response mechanisms to climate variability and other shocks in order to inform planned adaptation; (3) a recognition of the opportunities that climate change could bring to the sector; (4) adaptive strategies designed with a multi-sector perspective; and (5) a recognition of fisheries potential contribution to mitigation efforts.     

CMIP5气候模式模拟的北极海冰特征及其季节变化

This paper is focused on the seasonality change of Arctic sea ice extent(SIE) from 1979 to 2100 using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5).A new approach to compare the simulation metric of Arctic SIE between observation and 31 CMIP5 models was established.The approach is based on four factors including the climatological average,linear trend of SIE,span of melting season and annual range of SIE.It is more objective and can be popularized to other comparison of models.Six good models(GFDL-CM3,CESM1-BGC,MPI-ESM-LR,ACCESS-1.0,Had GEM2-CC,and Had GEM2-AO in turn) are found which meet the criterion closely based on above approach.Based on ensemble mean of the six models,we found that the Arctic sea ice will continue declining in each season and firstly drop below 1 million km~2(defined as the ice-free state) in September 2065 under RCP4.5 scenario and in September 2053 under RCP8.5 scenario.We also study the seasonal cycle of the Arctic SIE and find out the duration of Arctic summer(melting season) will increase by about 100 days under RCP4.5 scenario and about 200 days under RCP8.5 scenario relative to current circumstance by the end of the 21 st century.Asymmetry of the Arctic SIE seasonal cycle with later freezing in fall and early melting in spring,would be more apparent in the future when the Arctic climate approaches to "tipping point",or when the ice-free Arctic Ocean appears.Annual range of SIE(seasonal melting ice extent) will increase almost linearly in the near future 30–40 years before the Arctic appears ice-free ocean,indicating the more ice melting in summer,the more ice freezing in winter,which may cause more extreme weather events in both winter and summer in the future years.     

Spatial variability of factors influencing coastal change in the Western Canadian Arctic

Coastal change in the western Canadian Arctic is influenced by coastal morphology, relative sea-level trend and sea-ice and storm climates. The spatial variability of these factors tends to follow general east–west trends suggesting similar trends in coastal erosion hazard, processes and rates of coastal change. The spatial variability in the causes of coastal change is examined in the communities of Tuktoyaktuk, Sachs Harbour, Holman and Kugluktuk.     

Coastal oceanic climate change and variability from 1982 to 2009 around South Africa

Changes and fluctuations in sea surface temperature (SST) around the South African coast are analysed at a monthly scale from 1982 to 2009. There is a statistically significant negative trend of up to 0.5 °C per decade in the southern Benguela from January to August, and a cooling trend of lesser magnitude along the South Coast and in the Port Elizabeth/Port Alfred region from May to August. The cooling is due to an increase in upwelling-favourable south-easterly and easterly winds. There is a positive trend in SST of up to 0.55 °C per decade in most parts of the Agulhas Current system during all months of the year, except for KwaZulu-Natal where warming is in summer. The warming was attributed to an intensification of the Agulhas Current in response to a poleward shift of westerly winds and an increase in trade winds in the South Indian Ocean at relevant latitudes. This intensification of the Agulhas Current could also have contributed to the coastal cooling in the Port Alfred dynamic upwelling region. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is significantly positively correlated at a 95% level with the southern Benguela and South Coast from February to May, and negatively correlated with the Agulhas Current system south of 36° S. The correlation with the Antarctic Annular Oscillation is weaker and less coherent. El Niño suppresses upwelling along the coast, whereas La Niña increases it. Although there does not seem to be a linear relationship between the strength of the ENSO and the magnitude of coastal SST perturbation, El Niño and La Niña appear to be linked to major warm and cool events, respectively, at a seasonal scale in summer in the southern Benguela and along the South Coast. However, care must be taken in interpreting low-resolution reanalysed climate data (ERA40 and NCEP) and optimally interpolated Reynolds SST, such as used here.     

Late Holocene paleoceanography and climate variability over the Mackenzie Slope (Beaufort Sea,Canadian Arctic)

Late Holocene paleoceanography and climate variability of the Southeastern Beaufort Sea (Canadian Arctic) have been investigated on the basis of sedimentary cores collected over the Mackenzie Slope. Piston, trigger and box cores were sampled at station 803 in 2004 aboard the CCGS Amundsen at 218 m water depth. The chronology of the piston core is constrained by 4 AMS-¹⁴C dates, as the sedimentation rate in the box core is assessed from ²¹⁰Pb data. We obtain a continuous composite sequence covering the last 4600 years, with a sedimentation rate of ~ 140 cm.kyr^? 1. Transfer functions (modern analogue technique) based on dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblages were used to reconstruct the evolution of sea-surface conditions over the time period covered by the cores.Palynological data reveal that dinocyst assemblages are dominated by Operculodinium centrocarpum sensu lato (mean of 43.3%) throughout the core, with the accompanying taxa Brigantedinium spp. (19.6%), Islandinium minutum (15.6%) and cysts of Pentapharsodinium dalei (13.7%). Four zones have been established on the basis of dinocyst relative abundances. Dinocyst assemblage zone 1 (D1), from 4600 to 2700 cal years BP, is dominated by O. centrocarpum (mean of 49.0%). In zone D2 (2700–1500 cal years BP), the relative abundances of O. centrocarpum decrease (34.4%) in favour of the opportunistic, heterotrophic taxa Brigantedinium spp. (28.8%) and cysts of Polykrikos sp. var. arctic/quadratus (2.8%). Dinocyst zone D3 (1500–30 cal years BP or 450–1920 AD) is characterised by the high relative abundance of the peridinioid taxa I. minutum (19.9%). The last zone (D4), spanning from 1920 to 2004 AD, is again dominated by O. centrocarpum (44.5%), and shows low relative abundances of Brigantedinium spp. and cf. Echinidinium karaense.Quantitative reconstructions of past sea-surface parameters (August sea-surface temperature: SST, August sea-surface salinity: SSS, and duration of sea-ice cover) indicate relatively stable conditions over the last 4.6 kyr, with episodic cooling events (SST of ~ 1.5 °C below the modern value of 6 °C) that took place between 700 and 1820 AD. We associate the last and the longest of these cooling events (1560–1820 AD) with the Little Ice Age. Reconstructed SSS shows decadal oscillations since 1920 AD that we tentatively associate with the accumulation of freshwater by the Beaufort Gyre and the subsequent Great Salinity Anomalies. Our data suggest that similar salinity anomalies could have occurred ca. 1860 and 1790 AD.Stable isotopic data show a slight increase in δ¹³C values (from ~?27.1‰ at the base to ~?25.8‰ at the top) over the last 4.6 kyr that we associate with the gradual increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration as recorded by Antarctic ice cores. Variations in the δ¹⁵N profile suggest variations in Pacific water influence from 4600 to ~ 1300 cal years BP, associated with centennial scale shifts of the Arctic Oscillation phases.     

Vertical double silicate maxima in the sea-ice reduction region of the western Arctic Ocean: Implications for an enhanced biological pump due to sea-ice reduction

The R/V Mirai conducted hydrographic surveys in the western Arctic Ocean during summer 2004 (Mirai04) over wide east-west ranges from Alaska to eastern Siberia, where sea-ice cover has been greatly reduced in recent summers. The obtained data reveal differences in silicate profiles between shelf slope areas east and west of the Chukchi Plateau, the ridge that divides the Canada Basin into the Alaskan and east Siberian sides. East of the plateau, a single silicate maximum was found in a layer of Pacific-origin winter water, as examined in many previous studies. In contrast, west of the plateau, we found vertical double silicate maxima, which are reported for the first time in this study. The shallower silicate maximum corresponded to an N** minimum, signaling denitrification at the shelf bottom. This suggests that the shallower silicate maximum was caused by the spreading of shelf water. In contrast, the deeper silicate maximum corresponded to an oxygen minimum and a maximum silicate/phosphate ratio (Si/P), suggesting that this deeper maximum resulted from the decomposition of opal-shelled organisms. We also compared a silicate profile from Mirai04 to aprofile from the Arctic Ocean Section 94 (AOS94) expedition of 1994, a heavy ice year. The results suggest that sea-ice loss has enhanced biological activities, likely resulting in the appearance of the deeper silicate maximum.     

2007和2012年北极最小海冰范围空间分布不同的原因分析

Satellite records show the minimum Arctic sea ice extents(SIEs) were observed in the Septembers of 2007 and2012, but the spatial distributions of sea ice concentration reduction in these two years were quite different.Atmospheric circulation pattern and the upper-ocean state in summer were investigated to explain the difference.By employing the ice-temperature and ice-specific humidity(SH) positive feedbacks in the Arctic Ocean, this paper shows that in 2007 and 2012 the higher surface air temperature(SAT) and sea level pressure(SLP)accompanied by more surface SH and higher sea surface temperature(SST), as a consequence, the strengthened poleward wind was favorable for melting summer Arctic sea ice in different regions in these two years. SAT was the dominant factor influencing the distribution of Arctic sea ice melting. The correlation coefficient is –0.84 between SAT anomalies in summer and the Arctic SIE anomalies in autumn. The increase SAT in different regions in the summers of 2007 and 2012 corresponded to a quicker melting of sea ice in the Arctic. The SLP and related wind were promoting factors connected with SAT. Strengthening poleward winds brought warm moist air to the Arctic and accelerated the melting of sea ice in different regions in the summers of 2007 and 2012. Associated with the rising air temperature, the higher surface SH and SST also played a positive role in reducing summer Arctic sea ice in different regions in these two years, which form two positive feedbacks mechanism.     

Limits and barriers to adaptation to climate variability and change in Bangladeshi coastal fishing communities

Limits and barriers to adaptation restrict people’s ability to address the negative impacts of climate change or manage risks in a way that maximises their wellbeing. There is a lack of evidence of this on small-scale fishing communities in developing countries. This study identifies and characterises limits and barriers to adaptation of fishing activities to cyclones and examines interactions between them in two fishing communities in Bangladesh, using household questionnaires, oral history interviews, vulnerability matrices and focus group discussions. The limits include physical characteristics of climate and sea like higher frequency and duration of cyclones, and hidden sandbars. Barriers include technologically poor boats, inaccurate weather forecast, poor radio signal, lack of access to credit, low incomes, underestimation of cyclone occurrence, coercion of fishermen by the boat owners and captains, lack of education, skills and livelihood alternatives, unfavourable credit schemes, lack of enforcement of fishing regulations and maritime laws, and lack of access to fish markets. These local and wider scale factors interact in complex ways and constrain completion of fishing trips, coping with cyclones at sea, safe return of boats from sea, timely responses to cyclones and livelihood diversification. The findings indicate a need for further detailed research into the determinants and implications of such limits and barriers, in order to move towards an improved characterisation of adaptation and to identify most suitable means to overcome the limits and barriers.     

Problems of modeling climate and climate change

The properties of the climate system as a physical object are considered. Major concepts of the mathematical theory of climate are stated, and the problems of constructing mathematical climate models are discussed. The results of reproducing the present-day climate are analyzed, and the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in the content of greenhouse gases is considered. Major directions are formulated in which the development of the mathematical theory of climate and of modeling climate and climate change is possible.     

基于中国北极考察布放浮标观测和数值模拟的海冰和积雪厚度变化分析

Sea ice and the snow pack on top of it were investigated using Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition(CHINARE) buoy data.Two polar hydrometeorological drifters,known as Zeno? ice stations,were deployed during CHINARE 2003.A new type of high-resolution Snow and Ice Mass Balance Arrays,known as SIMBA buoys,were deployed during CHINARE 2014.Data from those buoys were applied to investigate the thickness of sea ice and snow in the CHINARE domain.A simple approach was applied to estimate the average snow thickness on the basis of Zeno~ temperature data.Snow and ice thicknesses were also derived from vertical temperature profile data based on the SIMBA buoys.A one-dimensional snow and ice thermodynamic model(HIGHTSI) was applied to calculate the snow and ice thickness along the buoy drift trajectories.The model forcing was based on forecasts and analyses of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF).The Zeno~ buoys drifted in a confined area during 2003–2004.The snow thickness modelled applying HIGHTSI was consistent with results based on Zeno~ buoy data.The SIMBA buoys drifted from 81.1°N,157.4°W to 73.5°N,134.9°W in 15 months during2014–2015.The total ice thickness increased from an initial August 2014 value of 1.97 m to a maximum value of2.45 m before the onset of snow melt in May 2015;the last observation was approximately 1 m in late November2015.The ice thickness based on HIGHTSI agreed with SIMBA measurements,in particular when the seasonal variation of oceanic heat flux was taken into account,but the modelled snow thickness differed from the observed one.Sea ice thickness derived from SIMBA data was reasonably good in cold conditions,but challenges remain in both snow and ice thickness in summer.     

北冰洋与邻近海区海洋-海冰模式的试算与校验

本文将目前先进的大尺度海洋、海冰模式(NEMO3.6和LIM3)应用于北大西洋–北冰洋–北太平洋(简称NAPA),并进行了试验后报模拟。所建立的模式NAPA1/4和NAPA1/12的水平分辨率分别为(1/4)°和(1/12)°经、纬度,计算范围覆盖太平洋45°N以北海区、整个北冰洋及北大西洋;其中,NAPA1/4和NAPA1/12在北大西洋的边界分别为26°N和7°N。目前,已利用NAPA1/4完成了1993–2015年的后报模拟。本文基于观测数据和已发表文献对模拟结果中的北冰洋海冰变化、环流结构以及水文特征进行了校验。结果表明,NAPA1/4能够再现北冰洋的主要热力与动力过程,可以用来分析海冰、水团、大西洋/太平洋入/出流等的季节与年际变化规律。利用NAPA1/12进行了1993–1996年的模拟计算。初步结果分析表明,提高分辨率可更为精细地刻画北冰洋的海冰、水团和环流的结构。     

Arctic climate changes and possible conditions of Arctic navigation in the 21st century

Assessments of current and expected climatic changes in the Arctic Basin are obtained, including ice-cover characteristics influencing the duration of the navigation season on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) along Eurasia and the Northwest Passage (NWP) along North America. The ability of modern climate models to simulate the average duration of the navigation season and its changes over recent decades is estimated. The duration of the navigation season for the NSR and NWP in the 21st century is estimated using an ensemble of climate models. The assessments differ significantly for the NSR and NWP. Unlike the NSR, the NWP reveals no large changes in the navigation season in the first 30 years of the 21st century. From the multimodel simulations, the expected duration of the navigation period by the late 21st century will be approximately 3 to 6 months for the NSR and 2 to 4 months for the NWP under the moderate anthropogenic SRES-A1B scenario.