The importance of moisture distribution for the growth and energetics of mid-latitude systems

A primitive equation model is used to study the sensitivity of baroclinic wave life cycles to the initial latitude-height distribution of humidity. Diabatic heating is parametrized only as a consequence of condensation in regions of large-scale ascent. Experiments are performed in which the initial relative humidity is a simple function of model level, and in some cases latitude bands are specified which are initially relatively dry. It is found that the presence of moisture can either increase or decrease the peak eddy kinetic energy of the developing wave, depending on the initial moisture distribution. A relative abundance of moisture at mid-latitudes tends to weaken the wave, while a relative abundance at low latitudes tends to strengthen it. This sensitivity exists because competing processes are at work. These processes are described in terms of energy box diagnostics. The most realistic case lies on the cusp of this sensitivity. Further physical parametrizations are then added, including surface fluxes and upright moist convection. These have the effect of increasing wave amplitude, but the sensitivity to initial conditions of relative humidity remains. Finally, control and doubled CO₂ life cycles are performed, with initial conditions taken from the time-mean zonal-mean output of equilibrium GCM experiments. The attenuation of the wave resulting from reduced baroclinicity is more pronounced than any effect due to changes in initial moisture.     

Two-dimensional simulations of katabatic layers observed during the GIMEX experiment

The hydrostatic model SALSA is used to simulate a particular event observed during the Greenland Ice Margin EXperiment “GIMEX” (on July 12th, 1991). The time evolution of the large-scale flow was incorporated in the model through time dependent boundary conditions which were updated using the closest upwind sounding. A turbulent scheme for the stable boundary layer and an appropriate parametrization of the surface fluxes implemented in the same model, are used for this study. The simulation results are discussed and compared to the available observations. The computed turbulent fluxes are correctly estimated. The model predicts a mixing zone of about 1500 m high which is in good agreement with tundra site observations. Over the ice cap, the katabatic layer is correctly simulated by the model. Its height of 80–300 m is well estimated. The comparison between the simulation and observations taken at ice cap sites is reasonably valid. The ablation computed along the ice cap corresponds well to the values reconstructed of observations at sites 4 and 9. Finally, a sensibility study to a specified westward geostrophic wind (2 ms⁻¹) shows that the consideration of this latter improves the simulated tundra wind evolution.     

Very low zonally asymmetric ozone values in March 1997 above the North Atlantic-European region, induced by dynamic processes

The total ozone distribution in March 1997 showed very low values in the North Atlantic-European region, even lower than in the years before. A spatial pattern correlation between the zonally asymmetric part of total ozone and that of the 300 hPa surface geopotential of the Northern Hemisphere was applied to examine the spatial structure of the low ozone values and its dynamic dependence. A trend analysis in the North Atlantic-European region was carried out to determine to what extent the low March 1997 ozone values are related to the decadal change of meteorological parameters in the lower stratosphere, observed since the 1980s, in comparison to the interannual variability. The conclusion is that the very low ozone values above the North Atlantic-European region in March 1997 were mainly induced by dynamic processes, namely their decadal change as well as their interannual variability.     

Statistical distributions of water content and sizes for clouds above Europe

The statistics of quantities involved in the synthesis of cloud scenes have been investigated from an original data base. Frequency distributions of ice and water content (IWC), horizontal and vertical sizes (L and H), and top temperatures (T) of clouds above Europe have been derived for nine types of clouds (As, Cb, Ci, Cg, LwCg, OrCg, Cs, Ns, Sc). It appears that the cumulated frequency plots can be well fitted with log-normal or Weibull profiles, and that for IWC and T cloud types can be split into two or three classes according to slopes in logarithmic coordinates. Cross-correlation coefficients between IWC, L, H and T have been also derived. Implications for the physics of the cloud build-up processes are briefly outlined. Critical analysis and comparison of other published results are proposed.     

Inertia-gravity waves in the troposphere and lower stratosphere associated with a jet stream exit region

Radar measurements at Aberystwyth (52.4°N, 4.1°W) of winds at tropospheric and lower stratospheric heights are shown for 12–13 March 1994 in a region of highly curved flow, downstream of the jet maximum. The perturbations of horizontal velocity have comparable amplitudes in the troposphere and lower stratosphere with downward and upward phase propagation, respectively, in these two height regions. The sense of rotation with increasing height in hodographs of horizontal perturbation velocity derived for hourly intervals show downwards propagation of energy in the troposphere and upward propagation in the lower stratosphere with vertical wavelengths of 1.7 to 2.3 km. The results indicate inertia-gravity waves propagating in a direction similar to that of the jet stream but at smaller velocities. Some of the features observed contrast with those of previous observations of inertia-gravity waves propagating transverse to the jet stream. The interpretation of the hodographs to derive wave parameters has taken account of the vertical shear of the background wind transverse to the direction of wave propagation.     

Stratosphere-troposphere exchange in an extratropical cyclone, calculated with a Lagrangian method

A Lagrangian technique is developed and applied to calculate stratosphere-troposphere exchange in an extratropical cyclone. This exchange is computed from the potential vorticity or PV along trajectories, calculated from ECMWF circulation data. Special emphasis is put on the statistical significance of the results. The computed field of the cross-tropopause flux is dominated by elongated patterns of statistically significant large downward and small upward fluxes. The downward fluxes mainly occur in the lower part of the considered tropopause folds. The upward fluxes are found near the entrance of the folds, in the tropopause ridges. The ratio between the area averaged downward and upward cross-tropopause fluxes increases with increasing strength of the cyclone. Since the largest fluxes are shown to occur in the regions with the largest wind shear, where PV-mixing is thought to cause large cross-tropopause fluxes, the results are expected to be reliable, at least in a qualitative sense. The position of a tropopause fold along the northwest coast of Africa is confirmed by total ozone observations. The results indicate that the applied Lagrangian technique is an appropriate tool for diagnosing stratosphere-troposphere exchange.     

The effect of coastal upwelling on the sea-breeze circulation at Cabo Frio, Brazil: a numerical experiment

The effect of coastal upwelling on sea-breeze circulation in Cabo Frio (Brazil) and the feedback of sea-breeze on the upwelling signal in this region are investigated. In order to study the effect of coastal upwelling on sea-breeze a non-linear, three-dimensional, primitive equation atmospheric model is employed. The model considers only dry air and employs boundary layer formulation. The surface temperature is determined by a forcing function applied to the Earths surface. In order to investigate the seasonal variations of the circulation, numerical experiments considering three-month means are conducted: January-February-March (JFM), April-May-June (AMJ), July-August-September (JAS) and October-November-December (OND). The model results show that the sea-breeze is most intense near the coast at all the seasons. The sea-breeze is stronger in OND and JFM, when the upwelling occurs, and weaker in AMJ and JAS, when there is no upwelling. Numerical simulations also show that when the upwelling occurs the sea-breeze develops and attains maximum intensity earlier than when it does not occur. Observations show a similar behavior. In order to verify the effect of the sea-breeze surface wind on the upwelling, a two-layer finite element ocean model is also implemented. The results of simulations using this model, forced by the wind generated in the sea-breeze model, show that the sea-breeze effectively enhances the upwelling signal.     

Letter to the editor Are the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Southern Oscillation related in any time-scale?

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Southern Oscillation (SO) are compared from the standpoint of a possible common temporal scale of oscillation. To do this a cross-spectrum of the temporal series of NAO and SO indices was determined, finding a significant common oscillation of 6/8 years. To assure this finding, both series were decomposed in their main oscillations using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Resulting reconstructed series of 6/8 years oscillation were then cross-correlated without and with pre-whitened, the latter being significant. The main conclusion is a possible relationship between a common oscillation of 6/8 years that represents about 20% of the SO variance and about 25% of the NAO variance.     

Mountain wave motions determined by the Esrange MST radar

A European campaign of ground-based radar, lidar and optical measurements was carried out during the winter of 1996/1997 (28 December–2 February) to study lee waves in the northern part of Scandinavia. The participants operated ozone lidars, backscatter lidars and MST radars at ALOMAR/Andoya and Esrange/Kiruna, and an ALIS imaging system in Kiruna. The Andoya site was generally windward of the Scandinavian mountains, the Kiruna site on the leeward side. The goal of the experiment was to examine the influence of lee waves on the formation of Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs). This paper studies the radar data from MST-radar ESRAD located at Esrange [68.°N, 21.°E], i.e. in the lee of the mountains. We present three cases where strong lee waves were observed: in one case they propagated upwards to the lower stratosphere and in the other two cases they were trapped or absorbed in the troposphere. We examine the local waves and the direction and strength of the local wind using the radar, the synoptic meteorological situation using weather maps (European Meteorological Bulletin) and the synoptic stratospheric temperatures using ECMWF data. We observed that waves propagate up to the stratosphere during frontal passages. When anticyclonic ridges are present, the propagation to the stratosphere is very weak. This is due to trapping of the waves at or below the tropopause. We also show that the radar data alone can be used to characterise the different weather conditions for the three cases studied (through the variation of the height of the tropopause). The synoptic stratospheric temperatures in the three cases were similar, and were above the expected threshold for PSC formation. Lidar and visual observation of PSCs and nacreous clouds, respectively, showed that these were present only in the case when the lee waves propagated up to the lower stratosphere.     

The storm tracks and the energy cycle of the Southern Hemisphere: sensitivity to sea-ice boundary conditions

The effect of sea-ice on various aspects of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical climate is examined. Two simulations using the LMD GCM are performed: a control run with the observed sea-ice distribution and an anomaly run in which all SH sea-ice is replaced by open ocean. When sea-ice is removed, the mean sea level pressure displays anomalies predominantly negatives near the Antarctic coast. In general, the meridional temperature gradient is reduced over most of the Southern Ocean, the polar jet is weaker and the sea level pressure rises equatorward of the control ice edge. The high frequency filtered standard deviation of both the sea level pressure and the 300-hPa geopotential height decreases over the southern Pacific and southwestern Atlantic oceans, especially to the north of the ice edge (as prescribed in the control). In contrast, over the Indian Ocean the perturbed simulation exhibits less variability equatorward of about 50°S and increased variability to the south. The zonal averages of the zonal and eddy potential and kinetic energies were evaluated. The effect of removing sea-ice is to diminish the available potential energy of the mean zonal flow, the available potential energy of the perturbations, the kinetic energy of the growing disturbances and the kinetic energy of the mean zonal flow over most of the Southern Ocean. The zonally averaged intensity of the subpolar trough and the rate of the baroclinic energy conversions are also weaker.     

Analysis of gravity waves in the tropical middle atmosphere over La Reunion Island (21°S, 55°E) with lidar using wavelet techniques

The capabilities of the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and the multiresolution analysis (MRA) are presented in this work to measure vertical gravity wave characteristics. Wave properties are extracted from the first data set of Rayleigh lidar obtained between heights of 30 km and 60 km over La Reunion Island (21°S, 55°E) during the Austral winter in 1994 under subtropical conditions. The altitude-wavelength representations deduced from these methods provide information on the time and spatial evolution of the wave parameters of the observed dominant modes in vertical profiles such as the vertical wavelengths, the vertical phase speeds, the amplitudes of temperature perturbations and the distribution of wave energy. The spectra derived from measurements show the presence of localized quasi-monochromatic structures with vertical wavelengths <10 km. Three methods based on the wavelet techniques show evidence of a downward phase progression. A first climatology of the dominant modes observed during the Austral winter period reveals a dominant night activity of 2 or 3 quasi-monochromatic structures with vertical wavelengths between 1/2 km from the stratopause, 3/4 km and 6/10 km observed between heights of 30 km and 60 km. In addition, it reveals a dominant activity of modes with a vertical phase speed of –0.3 m/s and observed periods peaking at 3/4 h and 9 h. The characteristics of averaged vertical wavelengths appear to be similar to those observed during winter in the southern equatorial region and in the Northern Hemisphere at mid-latitudes.     

Occurrence of polar stratospheric clouds at Kiruna

Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) are often observed in the Kiruna region in northern Sweden, east of the Scandinavian mountain range, during wintertime. PSC occurrence can be detected by ground-based optical instruments. Most of these require clear tropospheric weather. By applying the zenith-sky colour index technique, which works under most weather conditions, the data availability can be extended. The observations suggest that PSC events, especially of type II (water PSCs) may indeed more common than predicted by synoptic models, which is expected because of the frequent presence of mountain-induced leewaves. However, it will be of importance to increase the density of independent observations.     

Radiative forcing by contrails

A parametric study of the instantaneous radiative impact of contrails is presented using three different radiative transfer models for a series of model atmospheres and cloud parameters. Contrails are treated as geometrically and optically thin plane parallel homogeneous cirrus layers in a static atmosphere. The ice water content is varied as a function of ambient temperature. The model atmospheres include tropical, mid-latitude, and subarctic summer and winter atmospheres. Optically thin contrails cause a positive net forcing at top of the atmosphere. At the surface the radiative forcing is negative during daytime. The forcing increases with the optical depth and the amount of contrail cover. At the top of the atmosphere, a mean contrail cover of 0.1% with average optical depth of 0.2 to 0.5 causes about 0.01 to 0.03 Wm⁻² daily mean instantaneous radiative forcing. Contrails cool the surface during the day and heat the surface during the night, and hence reduce the daily temperature amplitude. The net effect depends strongly on the daily variation of contrail cloud cover. The indirect radiative forcing due to particle changes in natural cirrus clouds may be of the same magnitude as the direct one due to additional cover.     

Parametrization of the precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and its verification in Mexico

To improve results in monthly rainfall prediction, a parametrization of precipitation has been developed. The thermodynamic energy equation used in the Adem thermodynamic model (ATM) and the Clausius and Clapeyron equation, were used to obtain a linear parametrization of the precipitation anomalies as a function of the surface temperature and the 700 mb temperature anomalies. The observed rainfall in Mexico over 36 months, from January 1981 to December 1983, was compared with the results obtained of the heat released by condensation, which is proportional to precipitation, using our theoretical formula, and those obtained using a statistical formula, which was derived for the ATM using 12 years of hemispheric real data. The verification using our formula in Mexico, showed better results than the one using the statistical formula.     

Application of nonlinear forecasting techniques for meteorological modeling

A nonlinear forecasting method was used to predict the behavior of a cloud coverage time series several hours in advance. The method is based on the reconstruction of a chaotic strange attractor using four years of cloud absorption data obtained from half-hourly Meteosat infrared images from Northwestern Spain. An exhaustive nonlinear analysis of the time series was carried out to reconstruct the phase space of the underlying chaotic attractor. The forecast values are used by a non-hydrostatic meteorological model ARPS for daily weather prediction and their results compared with surface temperature measurements from a meteorological station and a vertical sounding. The effect of noise in the time series is analyzed in terms of the prediction results.     

Climatic characteristics of the tropopause over the Arctic Basin

On the basis of stationary aerological observations and measurements at Russian –North Pole drifting stations taken during 1954–1991, tropopause climate parameters (height and temperature at its upper and lower bounds) are determined. Long-term trends of these parameters over the Arctic Ocean are revealed.     

Analysis of the effect of the coastal discontinuity on near-surface flow

Conditional sampling is used herein to examine the effect of fetch, stability, and surface roughness changes on wind speeds in the coastal zone. Using data from an offshore wind farm it is shown that at a distance of 1.2–1.7 km from the coast, up to a height of 20 m above the surface, differences in wind speed distributions from onshore and offshore masts are statistically significant for flow moving offshore under all stability conditions. In contrast, differences between the distribution of wind speeds at 38 and 48 m at masts located at the coast and in the coastal zone are not significant for flow moving offshore, indicating that flow at these heights is not fully adjusted to the change in surface roughness (land to sea). These findings are in accordance with calculations of the internal boundary layer (IBL) height which indicate that the IBL would frequently be below the two upper measurement heights at 1.2–1.6 km from the coast. The analyses presented here indicate that the wind speed distribution at a potential offshore wind farm site is not solely dependent on fetch (distance from the coast) but also depends on the stability climate.     

Transient eastward-propagating long-period waves observed over the South Pole

Observations of the horizontal wind field over the South Pole were made during 1995 using a meteor radar. These data have revealed the presence of a rich spectrum of waves over the South Pole with a distinct annual occurrence. Included in this spectrum are long-period waves, whose periods are greater than one solar day, which are propagating eastward. These waves exhibit a distinct seasonal occurrence where the envelope of wave periods decreases from a period of 10 days near the fall equinox to a minimum of 2 days near the winter solstice and then progresses towards a period near 10 days at the spring equinox. Computation of the meridional gradient of quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity has revealed a region in the high-latitude upper mesosphere which could support an instability and serve as a source for these waves. Estimation of the wave periods which would be generated from an instability in this region closely resembles the observed seasonal variation in wave periods over the South Pole. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the observed eastward propagating long-period waves over the South Pole are generated by an instability in the polar upper mesosphere. However, given our limited data set we cannot rule out a stratospheric source. Embedded in this spectrum of eastward propagating waves during the austral winter are a number of distinct wave events. Eight such wave events have been identified and localized using a constant-Q filter bank. The periods of these wave events ranges from 1.7 to 9.8 days and all exist for at least 3 wave periods. Least squares analysis has revealed that a number of these events are inconsistent with a wave propagating zonally around the geographic pole and could be related to waves propagating around a dynamical pole which is offset from the geographic pole. Additionally, one event which was observed appears to be a standing oscillation.     

Intercomparison of oceanic and atmospheric forced and coupled mesoscale simulations. Part I: Surface fluxes

A mesoscale non-hydrostatic atmospheric model has been coupled with a mesoscale oceanic model. The case study is a four-day simulation of a strong storm event observed during the SEMAPHORE experiment over a 500 × 500 km² domain. This domain encompasses a thermohaline front associated with the Azores current. In order to analyze the effect of mesoscale coupling, three simulations are compared: the first one with the atmospheric model forced by realistic sea surface temperature analyses; the second one with the ocean model forced by atmospheric fields, derived from weather forecast re-analyses; the third one with the models being coupled. For these three simulations the surface fluxes were computed with the same bulk parametrization. All three simulations succeed well in representing the main oceanic or atmospheric features observed during the storm. Comparison of surface fields with in situ observations reveals that the winds of the fine mesh atmospheric model are more realistic than those of the weather forecast re-analyses. The low-level winds simulated with the atmospheric model in the forced and coupled simulations are appreciably stronger than the re-analyzed winds. They also generate stronger fluxes. The coupled simulation has the strongest surface heat fluxes: the difference in the net heat budget with the oceanic forced simulation reaches on average 50 Wm⁻² over the simulation period. Sea surface-temperature cooling is too weak in both simulations, but is improved in the coupled run and matches better the cooling observed with drifters. The spatial distributions of sea surface-temperature cooling and surface fluxes are strongly inhomogeneous over the simulation domain. The amplitude of the flux variation is maximum in the coupled run. Moreover the weak correlation between the cooling and heat flux patterns indicates that the surface fluxes are not responsible for the whole cooling and suggests that the response of the ocean mixed layer to the atmosphere is highly non-local and enhanced in the coupled simulation.     

A comparative study of winds and tidal variability in the mesosphere/lower-thermosphere region over Bulgaria and the UK

Meteor radars located in Bulgaria and the UK have been used to simultaneously measure winds in the mesosphere/lower-thermosphere region near 42.5°N, 26.6°E and 54.5°N, 3.9°W, respectively, over the period January 1991 to June 1992. The data have been used to investigate planetary waves and diurnal and semidiurnal tidal variability over the two sites. The tidal amplitudes at each site exhibit fluctuations as large as 300% on time scales from a few days to the intra-seasonal, with most of the variability being at intra-seasonal scales. Spectral and cross-wavelet analysis reveals closely related tidal variability over the two sites, indicating that the variability occurs on spatial scales large compared to the spacing between the two radars. In some, but not all, cases, periodic variability of tidal amplitudes is associated with simultaneously present planetary waves of similar period, suggesting the variability is a consequence of non-linear interaction. Calculation of the zonal wave number of a number of large amplitude planetary waves suggests that during summer 1991 the 2-day wave had a zonal wave number of 3, but that during January/February 1991 it had a zonal wave number of 4.