风垂直切变对中尺度地形对流降水影响的研究

针对长江中下游中尺度地形特点以及暴雨过程发生发展期间风垂直切变的主要观测特征,设计了一系列中尺度地形的三维理想数值试验,分析了干大气地形流和重力波特征,探讨了条件不稳定湿大气地形对流降水的模态分布,在此基础上研究了圆形、直线风垂直切变和切变厚度对中尺度地形对流降水强度和模态分布的影响.结果发现:在 F_r≈1的干大气条件下,气流遇到地形后分支、绕流和爬升现象同时存在,地形激发的重力波在水平和垂直方向上传播,其在迎风坡、背风坡、地形上游和下游的振幅不同,并组织出不同强度的垂直上升运动.在F_r > 1的条件不稳定湿大气下,地形对流降水主要存在三种模态,即迎风坡和背风坡准静止对流降水以及地形下游移动性对流降水,地形对流降水的形成与重力波在低层组织的上升运动密切相关.风垂直切变对地形对流降水的强度和模态分布有重要作用,其中圆形风垂直切变(风随高度旋转)不仅影响地形下游对流降水系统的移动方向,而且影响迎风坡和背风坡山脚处对流降水中心的分布和强度;直线风垂直切变(风随高度无旋转)主要影响地形对流降水的移动速度和强度.风随高度自下而上顺(逆)时针旋转,地形对流系统向下游传播时向右(左)偏移.风垂直切变主要通过影响地形重力波的结构和传播以及对流系统的形成、移动方向和速度,来影响地形对流降水的模态分布,其中对流层中低层的风垂直切变对地形对流降水强度和模态分布有重要影响.     

Internal airflow of a convective storm from dual-Doppler radar measurements

The dual-Doppler radar coplane method of scanning and data reduction has been used to determine the internal airflow and radar reflectivity structure of a convective storm. Cumulus convection growing in a moderately sheared wind environment resulted in a nonsteady, moderate intensity thunderstorm. Precipitation fallout and downward moving air are found downshear of an updraft inclined in the downshear direction. Rapid storm translation, vertical shear of the ambient wind, and slow subcloud ascent of inflow air act to establish this observed draft configuration. The absence of significant cold air outflow and its attendant gust front at the surface is attributed to (i) appreciable inflow of slow moving air into the downdraft at the middle layers and (ii) the fact that the potentially coldest air was located too low to contribute significantly to a deep downdraft circulation.     

变网格大气模式对1998年东亚夏季风异常的模拟研究

本文利用法国国家科研中心(CNRS)动力气象实验室(LMD)发展的可变网格的格点大气环流模式LMDZ4,对1998年东亚夏季降水进行了模拟,考查了变网格模式对东亚夏季降水的模拟性能.结果表明,模式在一定程度上能模拟出东亚夏季降水的极大值中心、夏季风雨带以及降水由东南向西北递减的空间分布特征.模式基本再现了1998年夏季两次雨带的进退特征,包括降水强度、雨带范围等,从而合理再现了1998年夏季江淮地区的"二度梅"现象.与观测相比,模拟的不足在于:在陡峭地形区附近存在虚假降水;江淮和华北地区以及四川盆地存在水汽输送的气旋式辐合偏差,同时高层环流辐散偏强,使得下层暖湿空气辐合上升、降水偏多;在东南地区存在反气旋式的水汽输送偏差,30°N以南地区降水偏少.对于1998年的"二度梅"现象,模拟偏差主要表现为长江中下游地区两次(特别是第二次)较强降水持续时间偏短,强降水范围偏小,而黄淮和华南地区却降水偏多.分析表明,模式对两次梅雨期降水的模拟偏差直接受环流形势模拟偏差的影响.LMDZ4区域模式版本的特点一是区域加密,二是加密区内预报场每10天向再分析资料恢复一次.敏感试验结果表明,LMDZ4加密区向强迫场的10天尺度恢复总体上有利于提高模式对华北降水的模拟能力,而对长江流域和华南降水的模拟具有不利影响.较之均匀网格模拟试验,加密试验由于在东亚的分辨率大大提高,对东亚夏季降水模拟效果更好.     

Impact of Doppler Radar Wind in Simulating the Intensity and Propagation of Rainbands Associated with Mesoscale Convective Complexes Using MM5-3DVAR System

Pre-monsoon rainfall around Kolkata (northeastern part of India) is mostly of convective origin as 80% of the seasonal rainfall is produced by Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). Accurate prediction of the intensity and structure of these convective cloud clusters becomes challenging, mostly because the convective clouds within these clusters are short lived and the inaccuracy in the models initial state to represent the mesoscale details of the true atmospheric state. Besides the role in observing the internal structure of the precipitating systems, Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) provides an important data source for mesoscale and microscale weather analysis and forecasting. An attempt has been made to initialize the storm-scale numerical model using retrieved wind fields from single Doppler radar. In the present study, Doppler wind velocities from the Kolkata Doppler weather radar are assimilated into a mesoscale model, MM5 model using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system for the prediction of intense convective events that occurred during 0600 UTC on 5 May and 0000 UTC on 7 May, 2005. In order to evaluate the impact of the DWR wind data in simulating these severe storms, three experiments were carried out. The results show that assimilation of Doppler radar wind data has a positive impact on the prediction of intensity, organization and propagation of rain bands associated with these mesoscale convective systems. The assimilation system has to be modified further to incorporate the radar reflectivity data so that simulation of the microphysical and thermodynamic structure of these convective storms can be improved.     

斜压对流边界层中风廓线和湍流特征的研究

在美国Ｋａｎｓａｓ和Ｎｅｂｒａｓｋａ交界处于１９９２年进行的ＳＴＯＲＭ－ＦＥＳＴ（ＳＴｏｒｍ－ｓｃａｌｅ Ｏｐｅｒａｔｉｏｎａｌ　ａｎｄ　Ｒｅｓｅａｒｃｈ　Ｍｅｔｅｏｒｏｌｏｇｙ－Ｆｒｏｎｔｓ　Ｅｘｐｅｒｉｍｅｎｔ Ｓｙｓｔｅｍ　Ｔｅｓｔ）资料基础上,分析了 斜压对流边界层中温度、湿度和风速的垂直分布．分析表明,在对流边界层中温度和湿度常 显示很好的混合;但风速分量有时混合很好,有时则存在切变．计算了存在和不存在风切变 两种情况下的湍流动能收支．最后,讨论了对流边界层中风切变形成的可能原因．     

An overview of a heavy rain event in southeastern Iberia: the role of large-scale meteorological conditions

The heavy rain event of 30 January to 4 February 1993 in the Segura Basin in SE Iberia is investigated. The study emphasizes the atmospheric processes that led to thunderstorm development. The meteorological scenario has been separated into preconvective and convective periods and into large-scale and subsynoptic settings. The warm, moist air now from the Mediterranean Sea, channelled by a high-over-low blocking pattern with a cold front over southeastern Iberia appears to be the main reason that helped trigger a severe weather occurrence. The study of the mesoscale environment parameters showed an enhanced conditional unstability through a deep troposphere layer with a moderate to strong vertical wind shear that promoted conditions to allow organization of long-lived convective structures.     

夏季风期间长江流域的水汽输送状态及其年际变化

本文利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了长江流域夏季风期间的水汽收支和循环,着重研究了不同月份与水汽收支的年际变化显著相关的大尺度水汽输送和环流异常.流域范围的西南夏季风水汽输送以6、7月最为强烈,经向输送在5～8月造成流域水汽辐合,9月造成辐散;纬向输送在5～7月造成流域水汽辐散,8、9月造成辐合.研究表明,在不同月份,流域的南北边界处的水汽输送在流域水汽收支的年际变化中起着不同的作用.这种变化与大气环流的异常密切相关.在夏季风相对较弱月份（5、8、9月）,流域水汽收支的年际变化极大地受到流域南边界南风水汽输入通道的影响,对应于水汽收入偏丰年,该3个月500 hPa高空在青藏高原东部都存在显著异常低压区,而且,8、9月在中南半岛及其以东洋面存在显著异常反气旋环流,与8月西太副高的向西向南异常伸展,以及9月副高的西伸较弱和南北范围较宽有关,这些异常环流均造成南边界的大量异常水汽输入.而在夏季风十分强盛的6、7月,流域北边界南风水汽输出极大增加,成为流域水汽收入年际变化的关键敏感通道,对应于水汽收入偏丰年,6月500 hPa高空主要受中纬度以黄海和东海为中心的异常低压系统和气旋性异常环流影响,与该区域副高偏南、偏弱有关,而7月则主要受中高纬以外兴安岭为中心的异常高压和反气旋性异常环流影响,应该是由于该区域大陆高压的频繁生成造成的,它们均造成流域北边界水汽输出的异常减少.     

1840年以来长江大洪水演变与气候变化关系初探

长江洪水灾害是我国频率高、为患严重的自然灾害之一.本文依据可靠资料,选择1840年至2000年间32次大洪水记录,探讨其演变与气候变化的关系.认知1910s前的19世纪冷期出现大洪水13次(包括1870年的极值大洪水事件)频率为1.9次／10a.1921-2000年间出现了大洪水19次,频率为2.4次／10a.20世纪暖期又分出两个变暖时段,前一变暖时段的峰值期1920s-1940s出现大洪水9次,包含1931年全流域大洪水.后一变暖时段,即1980s与1990s出现大洪水8次.实测记录到的最大洪水1954年位于前一变暖时段结束阶段.1990s是全球,也是我国近百年中最暖年代,受东南季风影响大的中下游地区夏季降水量是近百年最多的,大暴雨频率也是有较多记录的40年来最高的.以此出现了10年5次大洪水高频率现象,包含1998年全流域型大洪水,表明了全球变暖的显著影响.也指示30-40年问周期性振荡中多雨年代.如此可预期21世纪初期降水会有小幅度下降与大洪水频率在短期内降低的可能性.长江上游受西南季风影响较大,19世纪下半期与20世纪上半期为多降水期,大洪水频率较高.20世纪下半期为少降水期,大洪水频率较低.关于气候变化研究有待深入,前景不易预估.     

A statistical study of underestimates of wind speeds by VHF radar

Comparisons are made between horizontal wind measurements carried out using a VHF-radar system at Aberystwyth (52.4°N, 4.1°W) and radiosondes launched from Aberporth, some 50 km to the southwest. The radar wind results are derived from Doppler wind measurements at zenith angles of 6° in two orthogonal planes and in the vertical direction. Measurements on a total of 398 days over a 2-year period are considered, but the major part of the study involves a statistical analysis of data collected during 75 radiosonde flights selected to minimise the spatial separation of the two sets of measurements. Whereas good agreement is found between the two sets of wind direction, radar-derived wind speeds show underestimates of 4–6% compared with radiosonde values over the height range 4–14 km. Studies of the characteristics of this discrepancy in wind speeds have concentrated on its directional dependence, the effects of the spatial separation of the two sets of measurements, and the influence of any uncertainty in the radar measurements of vertical velocities. The aspect sensitivity of radar echoes has previously been suggested as a cause of underestimates of wind speeds by VHF radar. The present statistical treatment and case-studies show that an appropriate correction can be applied using estimates of the effective radar beam angle derived from a comparison of echo powers at zenith angles of 4.2° and 8.5°.     

“6·23”江苏阜宁EF4级龙卷超级单体风暴中尺度结构研究

2016年6月23日14—15时,江苏省阜宁县突遭"增强藤田"4级龙卷、强风、短时强降水和冰雹等强对流天气,致使99人罹难,800多人受伤,属极其罕见的极端天气事件.本文利用加密自动站数据、探空数据、单部雷达观测数据以及双多普勒雷达三维风场反演数据,研究了此次龙卷发生的天气背景、龙卷超级单体的三维结构及其演变特征.研究表明：（1）龙卷发生期间,阜宁处于地面暖湿舌内、地面有γ中尺度气旋和辐合线;环境大气抬升凝结高度很低、中低层有很强的水平风的垂直切变;这有利于龙卷的生成.（2）此次龙卷超级单体左移风暴的低层有钩状回波和入流缺口,有界弱回波区位于垂直剖面中低层、悬垂回波位于风暴前部高层.（3）龙卷发生前,风暴质心高度、最大反射率因子高度和风暴回波顶高度均持续增加,风暴垂直累积液态含水量激增;龙卷发生在上述参数的数值首次同时减小时.（4）双多普勒雷达反演的三维风场揭示,超级单体形成之前的对流风暴内部中低层已经有中尺度气旋形成,中尺度气旋伴随着超级单体的生成、发展和强化的各个阶段.中尺度气旋位于钩状回波顶端、其南端有反气旋,此涡旋偶对于中层动量下传、龙卷生成、发展、加强和触地具有重要作用.     

Three-dimensional Simulations of the Mean Air Transport During the 1997 Forest Fires in Kalimantan, Indonesia Using a Mesoscale Numerical Model

— This paper describes the meteorological processes responsible for the mean transport of air pollutants during the ENSO-related forest fires in Kalimantan, Indonesia from 00 UTC 21 September to 00 UTC 25 September, 1997. The Fifth Generation of the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to simulate three-dimensional winds at 6-hourly intervals. A nonhydrostatic version of the model is run using two nested grids with horizontal resolutions of 45 km and 15 km. From the simulated wind fields, the backward and forward trajectories of the air parcel are investigated using the Vis5D model.¶The results indicate that the large-scale subsidence over Indonesia, the southwest monsoon low-level flows (2–8 m s^?1), and the shallow planetary boundary layer height (400–800 m) play a key role in the transport of air pollutants from Kalimantan to Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei.     

The influence of rainfall on PR radar measurement of ocean surface wind speed and its calibration

Rain can significantly degrade the wind vector retrieval from Precipitation Radar(PR) by three mechanisms, namely, two-way rain attenuation, rain volume-backscattering, and ocean surface roughening from the rain splash effect. Here we first derive the radar equation for PR in rainy conditions. Then we use the rain attenuation model for Ku band, volume backscatter model for spherical raindrops and PR–TMI(TRMM Microwave Imager, TMI) matchup datasets from June to August in 2010 to solve the radar equation, and quantitatively analyze the influence of rainfall on PR radar measurement of ocean surface wind speed. Our results show that the significant effect of rain on radar signal is dominated by two-way rain attenuation and rain splash effect, and the effect of rain volume-backscattering is relatively the weakest, which can even be neglected in rain-weak conditions. Moreover, both the two-way rain attenuation and rain splash effect increase with the increasing of integration rain rate and incident angle. Last, we combine volume-backscattering effect and splash effect into a simple phenomenological model for rain calibration and select three typhoon cases from June to August in 2012 to verify the accuracy of this model. Before calibration, the mean difference and mean square error(MSE) between PR-observed ? 0 and wind-induced ? 0 are about 2.95 dB and 3.10 dB respectively. However, after calibration, the mean difference and MSE are reduced to 0.64 dB and 1.61 dB respectively. The model yields an accurate calibration for PR near-nadir normalized radar cross section(NRCS) in rainy conditions.     

我国中东部地区夏季中尺度对流系统形成前物理量诊断分析

利用2008—2010年夏季(6—8月)FY-2地球静止卫星红外云图资料识别出我国中东部地区(110°E—124°E,27°N—40°N)共208个中尺度对流系统(mesoscale convective system,MCS)和174个不能增长发展成为MCS的普通雷暴群(widespread convections,WCS).提取MCS形成前约6h和WCS成熟时(个数最多)的NCEP再分析资料(时间间隔6h,空间分辨率1°×1°),通过对表征水汽、动力和热力等条件的基本物理量和一些常用衍生物理量采用平均值、标准差等常用统计方法、动态合成和评估方法逐步筛选和分析诊断两种系统环境物理量场,最终从众多物理量中挑选出了能显著区别两种系统的物理量(即MCS形成的关键物理量),分别为强天气威胁指数、修正的K指数、地面抬升指数、2m比湿和0~3km垂直风切变,希望对预报我国中东部地区MCS发生与否提供一定的科学依据.     

Noctilucent cloud in the western Arctic in 2005: Simultaneous lidar and camera observations and analysis

We report observations of a noctilucent cloud (NLC) over central Alaska by a ground-based lidar and camera on the night of 9–10 August 2005. The lidar at Poker Flat Research Range (PFRR), Chatanika (65°N, 147°W) measured a maximum integrated backscatter coefficient of 2.4×10^?6 sr^?1 with a peak backscatter coefficient of 2.6×10^?9 m^?1 sr^?1 corresponding to an aerosol backscatter ratio of 120 at an altitude of 82.1 km. The camera at Donnelly Dome, 168 km southeast of PFRR, recorded an extensive NLC display across the sky with distinct filamentary features corresponding to wave structures measured by the lidar. The occurrence of the maximum integrated backscatter coefficient corresponded to the passage of a bright cloud band to the southwest over PFRR. The camera observations indicate that the cloud band had a horizontal width of 50 km and a length of 150 km. The horizontal scale of the cloud band was confirmed by medium-frequency radar wind measurements that reported mesopause region winds of 30 m/s to the southwest during the period when the cloud band passed over PFRR. Comparison of these measurements with current NLC microphysical models suggests a lower bound on the water vapor mixing ratio at 83 km of 7–9 ppmv and a cloud ice mass of 1.5–1.8×10³ kg. Satellite measurements show that this NLC display occurred during a burst of cloud activity that began on 5 August and lasted for 10 days. This cloud appeared 10 days after a launch of the space shuttle. We discuss the appearance of NLCs in August over several years at this lower polar latitude site in terms of planetary wave activity and space shuttle launches.     

Estimation of rainfall from infrared‐microwave satellite data for basin‐scale hydrologic modelling

The infrared‐microwave rainfall algorithm (IMRA) was developed for retrieving spatial rainfall from infrared (IR) brightness temperatures (TBs) of satellite sensors to provide supplementary information to the rainfall field, and to decrease the traditional dependency on limited rain gauge data that are point measurements. In IMRA, a SLOPE technique (ST) was developed for discriminating rain/no‐rain pixels through IR image cloud‐top temperature gradient, and 243K as the IR threshold temperature for minimum detectable rainfall rate. IMRA also allows for the adjustment of rainfall derived from IR‐TB using microwave (MW) TBs. In this study, IMRA rainfall estimates were assessed on hourly and daily basis for different spatial scales (4, 12, 20, and 100 km) using NCEP stage IV gauge‐adjusted radar rainfall data, and daily rain gauge data. IMRA was assessed in terms of the accuracy of the rainfall estimates and the basin streamflow simulated by the hydrologic model, Sacramento soil moisture accounting (SAC‐SMA), driven by the rainfall data. The results show that the ST option of IMRA gave accurate satellite rainfall estimates for both light and heavy rainfall systems while the Hessian technique only gave accurate estimates for the convective systems. At daily time step, there was no improvement in IR‐satellite rainfall estimates adjusted with MW TBs. The basin‐scale streamflow simulated by SAC‐SMA driven by satellite rainfall data was marginally better than when SAC‐SMA was driven by rain gauge data, and was similar to the case using radar data, reflecting the potential applications of satellite rainfall in basin‐scale hydrologic modelling. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中尺度模式积云参数化方案的改进及其在暴雨模拟中的应用

本文针对中国暴雨发生发展天气特征,改进和发展了一种适合于描述东亚暴雨的中尺度积云参数化方案.首先基于近年来(1990—2010)江淮流域汛期降水合成分析的基础上,诊断出组织化对流降水环境的动力参数;其次利用该动力参数作为动力控制条件,改进了Kain-Fritsch Eta中尺度积云对流参数化方案;最后利用改进的中尺度积云参数化方案对梅雨期暴雨、华南前汛期暴雨过程进行了数值模拟,结果表明:改进后的中尺度积云参数化方案对上述两次暴雨过程的落区及强度的模拟,均有明显改进.     

中国异常增暖来年江淮流域易发生大洪水

在1987年以来全球气温明显增高的同时,中国气温也显著增高,1997年达到了峰值,2006年又出现了次峰值.为搞清异常增暖对中国旱涝等灾害的发生可能带来的影响,本文重点统计分析了中国年平均气温对全球年平均气温的响应关系,并分析研究了1951～2006年期间中国月年平均气温的年际变化特征和汛期主要多雨带类型及发生严重洪涝区域之间的对应关系.结果发现：（1）3个中国年平均气温异常偏高但8月气温不高的来年汛期主要多雨带和严重洪涝区域都发生在淮河流域（3/3）;（2）5个年平均气温偏高且8月气温也明显偏高的来年汛期长江流域发生了大洪水和严重洪涝（5/5）,特别是其中2个8月气温特高的来年（1954、1998年）汛期长江流域发生了特大洪水和严重洪涝（2/2）.对这个前兆强信号的发现和揭示,不但证明了全球和中国异常增暖对来年中国汛期水旱灾害的重大影响,也对准确预测中国汛期主要多雨带分布类型和江淮流域的大洪水和特大洪水有特别重要的应用价值.     

2011年5月26日北京上空TeSL与Es、大气风场的同时观测

本文报道了北京延庆（116.0°E,40.5°N）钠荧光激光雷达在2011年5月26日夜间观测到的一例低热层钠层（lower thermospheric-enhanced sodium layer,TeSL）事例,从数据采集开始到观测结束,该低热层钠层持续存在且不断增强,峰值密度从250 cm^-3增加至1500 cm^-3,峰值高度却从111 km逐渐下降到100 km.同一时间相距28 km的测高仪也观测到了出现在106~117 km的Es层,平均强度4.5 MHz;对流星雷达设备观测到的75~100 km的纬向风风速进行拟合,得到100~125 km的风速,风剪切节点从122 km下降到108 km.Es层和纬向风剪切节点的演化趋势与TeSL事件呈现出极好的相关性.我们计算了离子垂直速度及辐射复合反应的生成率,对钠原子的出现高度和密度做出解释,推测风剪切汇聚的Na⁺与Es层中的电子中和,是形成当日TeSL的主要机制.     

海南岛海风雷暴结构的数值模拟

本文利用高分辨率WRF模式对2012年7月20日发生在海南地区的一次海风雷暴过程进行模拟,探讨了海南岛复杂地形下海风雷暴的结构、发展演变过程及其触发机制.结果表明,海南岛北部向内陆传播的海风与南部受地形阻挡的海风相遇后会形成海风辐合带,辐合带能影响当地的散度和涡旋特征,为雷暴的发生发展提供有利的动力和热力学条件.海南岛受热带海洋的影响较大,当地的水汽条件和对流潜势长期保持着有利于对流发展的状态,自由对流高度始终处于较低的位置,一旦海风辐合带来的抬升运动克服对流抑制到达自由对流高度后,对流就能自主地发展起来,所以单纯的海风辐合也常常能触发当地的强雷暴.雷暴发生发展过程中对流参数存在明显的变化,其演变曲线的突变位置对雷暴的发生有一定的指示作用.海南岛的海风雷暴过程与当地的复杂地形密切相关,地形的动力阻挡作用影响着低层海风的辐合以及对流的发展.