Paraglacial gullying of sediment‐mantled slopes: a case study of Colletthøgda,Kongsfjorden area,West Spitsbergen (Svalbard)

This paper evaluates the paraglacial evolution of a sediment‐mantled slope in a polar maritime environment. The intensity of paraglacial processes is estimated through quantification of erosion and dating of field sectors with the help of photographic archives. Gully erosion has been estimated using morphometric parameters and by surveys of vegetation cover. The rapid melting of dead‐ice cores controls gully formation. This leads to slope form modification: gully profile gradients are reduced from a mean of 35° to a mean ranging between 10° and 15°. Profile evolution results from the collapse of glacier lateral moraine. All data (mean slope angle of individual gullies, frequency distribution of slope angles, fractional distance to the apex, gullying index, volume of debris mobilized, vertical erosion rate) tend to increase with increasing deglaciation age and the duration of paraglacial activity. Vegetation colonization is a response to stabilization of the ground surface and the drying up of the ground surface due to dead‐ice melting. The full sequence of paraglacial slope adjustment (gully incision‐stabilization) may occur rapidly at the study site, i.e. within two decades. Finally, a lateral morphogenic sequence is proposed showing the importance of paraglacial processes at the onset of the deglaciation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of ‘species weighting’ on conservation status evaluation: a case study with light-traped adult caddisflies (Insecta: Trichoptera)

Wildlife conservation requires methods to express the conservation status of assemblages in order to identify those of importance. Expressions of diversity and a number of different conservation status indices are widely used techniques for assessing assemblages. Some of these indices are based on species lists, while others use abundances. In this study, the conservation statuses of 21 light-traped adult caddisfly assemblages were compared using species lists and abundance data. The results showed that the assessment based on species list provided a higher conservation status than that based on species abundances. Consequently, indices incorporating species abundances were not comparable with indices using only species lists. The difference between the two measures might be derived from the unequal weighting of species categories. In conclusion, incorporating species abundance reduces sampling method bias and increases the precision of the conservation status evaluation.     

River temperature forecasting: case study for Little Southwest Miramichi River (New Brunswick,Canada)

River temperature models play an increasingly important role in the management of fisheries and aquatic resources. Among river temperature models, forecasting models remain relatively unused compared to water temperature simulation models. However, water temperature forecasting is extremely important for in-season management of fisheries, especially when short-term forecasts (a few days) are required. In this study, forecast and simulation models were applied to the Little Southwest Miramichi River (New Brunswick, Canada), where water temperatures can regularly exceed 25–29°C during summer, necessitating associated fisheries closures. Second- and third-order autoregressive models (AR2, AR3) were calibrated and validated using air temperature as the exogenous variable to predict minimum, mean and maximum daily water temperatures. These models were then used to predict river temperatures in forecast mode (1-, 2- and 3-day forecasts using real-time data) and in simulation mode (using only air temperature as input). The results showed that the models performed better when used to forecast rather than simulate water temperatures. The AR3 model slightly outperformed the AR2 in the forecasting mode, with root mean square errors (RMSE) generally between 0.87°C and 1.58°C. However, in the simulation mode, the AR2 slightly outperformed the AR3 model (1.25°C < RMSE < 1.90°C). One-day forecast models performed the best (RMSE ~ 1°C) and model performance decreased as time lag increased (RMSE close to 1.5°C after 3 days). The study showed that marked improvement in the modelling can be accomplished using forecasting models compared to water temperature simulations, especially for short-term forecasts.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Huang     

Evaluation of lindane diffusion along the southeastern Adriatic coastal strip (Mediterranean Sea): a case study in an Albanian industrial area

This study aimed to analyze the impact at sea of a pesticide factory located 7 km north of Durres (Albania) by investigating a lowland area under the sea situated 0.7 km from the shoreline. The main product of this factory was lindane. Production ceased in 1991 during the Albanian civil war, and a large amount of industrial waste was dispersed over the ground surrounding the factory, resulting in a high level of lindane pollution. A water-scoop channels the ground water accumulated around the disused factory directly into the sea. The concentrations of lindane in sediments collected along the coasts of the region ranged from 0.60 to 22.55 ng g(-1). The average concentration in the muscles of fish did not exceed the limits specified by European Commission legislation, whereas the concentration in the liver did exceed these limits; consequently, liver is not recommended for consumption.     

Advance first order second moment (AFOSM) method for single reservoir operation reliability analysis: a case study

Reservoir system reliability is the ability of reservoir to perform its required functions under stated conditions for a specified period of time. In classical method of reservoir system reliability analysis, the operation policy is used in a simple simulation model, considering the historical/synthetic inflow series and a number of physical bounds on a reservoir system. This type of reliability analysis assumes a reservoir system as fully failed or functioning, called binary state assumption. A number of researchers from various research backgrounds have shown that the binary state assumption in the traditional reliability theory is not extensively acceptable. Our approach to tackle the present problem space is to implement the algorithm of advance first order second moment (AFOSM) method. In this new method, the inflow and reservoir storage are considered as uncertain variables. The mean, variance and covariance of uncertain variables are determined using moment values of reservoir state variables. For this purpose, a stochastic optimization model developed based on the constraint state formulation is applied. The proposed model of reliability analysis is used to a real case study in Iran. As a result, monthly probabilities of water allocation were computed from AFOSM method, and the outputs were compared with those from Monte Carlo method. The comparison shows that the outputs from AFOSM method are similar to those from the Monte Carlo method. In term of practical use of this study, the proposed method is appropriate to determine the monthly probability of failure in water allocation without the aid of simulation.     

Quantitative reconstruction of Late Cenozoic landscapes: a case study in the Sierra de Atapuerca (Burgos,Spain)

We have developed a method to reconstruct palaeorelief by means of detailed geomorphological and geological studies, geostatistical tools, GIS and a DEM. This method has been applied to the Sierra de Atapuerca (NE Duero Basin, Burgos, Spain), allowing us to model a three‐dimensional reconstruction of the relief evolution from the Middle Miocene to the present. The modelling procedure is based on geostatistical recovery of the palaeosurfaces characteristic of each geomorphological evolution stage, using polynomial regressions, trend surfaces and kriging. The modelling of morphology trends has been useful in establishing new geological and geomorphological relationships in the geodynamic evolution of this basin, such as uplift quantification, correlation of erosion surfaces and sedimentary units, and the evolution of fluvial base levels. The palaeosurface reconstruction together with an analysis of the slope retreat have allowed us to reconstruct the palaeoreliefs that define the Late Cenozoic landscape evolution of this area, where the Lower and Middle Pleistocene archaeopalaeontological sites of the Sierra de Atapuerca are located. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Altitude-dependent distribution of ~(137)Cs in the environment:a case study of Aragats massif,Armenia

This paper considers the distribution of technogenic 137Cs and naturally occurring radionuclides:238 U,232 Th and40 R concentrations in soils and 137Cs in atmospheric dry depositions by altitudinal belts of the Aragats mountain massif,Republic of Armenia.Undisturbed soil samples were collected at altitudes from 1000 to 3200 m.For the determination of geochemical variability,two soil sampling campaigns were undertaken.Atmospheric dry depositions were sampled from five stations at1100-3200 m collected onto organic fiber filters between June and December 2016.137Cs activity was measured using a high-purity Germanium detector coupled to a multichannel analyzer(Canberra).Results indicated that specific activity of 137Cs in soils at 1000 m is495-528 Bq m^-2,andat3200 mis10,500-11,470 Bq m^-2.No correlation observed for 137Cs versus naturally occurring radionuclides,which varies in distribution by altitude.Specific activities of 137Cs in dry atmospheric depositions varies from 1.06 at 846 m to2.37 Bq m^-2 per quarter at 3200 m and increases as the altitude increases.Activities of 137Cs in soil and dry atmospheric deposition correlated significantly,and 137Cs activity in soils and atmospheric dry depositions decrease as the absolute altitude decreases.The 50-year effective dose from exposure to 137Cs fallout varies with altitude from 0.007 to 1.42 m Sv.     

Pyroclastic density currents at Stromboli volcano (Aeolian Islands,Italy): a case study of the 1930 eruption

Pyroclastic density currents (PDC) related to paroxysmal eruptions have caused a large number of casualties in the recent history of Stromboli. We combine here a critical review of historical chronicles with detailed stratigraphic, textural, and petrographic analyses of PDC deposits emplaced at Stromboli over the last century to unravel the origin of currents, their flow mechanism and the depositional dynamics. We focus on the 1930 PDC as they are well described in historical accounts and because the 1930 eruption stands as the most voluminous and destructive paroxysm of the last 13 centuries. Stromboli PDC deposits are recognizable from their architecture and the great abundance of fresh, well-preserved juvenile material. General deposit features indicate that Stromboli PDC formed due to the syn-eruptive gravitational collapse of hot pyroclasts rapidly accumulated over steep slopes. Flow channelization within the several small valleys cut on the flanks of the volcano can enhance the mobility of PDC, as well as the production of fine particles by abrasion and comminution of hot juvenile fragments, thereby increasing the degree of fluidization. Textural analyses and historical accounts also indicate that PDC can be fast (15–20 m/s) and relatively hot (360–700 °C). PDC can thus flow right down the slopes of the volcano, representing a major hazard. For this reason, they must be adequately taken into account when compiling risk maps and evaluating volcanic hazard on the Island of Stromboli.     

Three-dimensional distributed DC/IP method for altered tectonite-type gold ore deposits exploration: a case study of the Jiaojia gold metallogenic belt,Eastern China

To develop an effective method to identify ore-controlling faults, we studied the Jiaojia gold metallogenic belt, a most typical altered tectonite-type gold metallogenic belt in the Jiaodong Peninsula, China, and conducted experiments using the 3D distributed direct current-induced polarization (DC/IP) method. Firstly, we tested the ability of using 3D distributed DC/IP method to identify altered tectonite-type gold ore deposits by 3D synthetic modelling. We then collected real data of the Sizhuang gold deposit using the 3D distributed DC/IP method. The resistivity model obtained of this region is generally consistent with the known geological setting. Moreover, to obtain the information about the southern extension of the Jiaojia gold metallogenic belt, we conducted a 3D distributed DC/IP experiment in the Shijia area in the southern segment of the Jiaojia fault. The southern extension of the Jiaojia fault and tectonic evolution of shallow magma in this region were inferred from the 3D resistivity and chargeability models. Based on all the information above, we concluded that the 3D distributed DC/IP method has the advantages of 3D observations, high spatial resolution and great detection depth and will be one of the most effective methods for detecting altered tectonite-type gold ore deposits.     

The 20th September 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake (Taiwan): a case of study for its aftershock seismic sequence

The purpose of this work is to highlight some methodological aspects related to the observation of possible anomalies in the temporal decay of aftershocks temporal series following a mainshock with magnitude M ≥ 7.0. In this paper we present the results for the Taiwan seismic sequence started on 20 September 1999 (M = 7.7) by tuning some seismic parameters that show considerable variations during the aftershock decay process. In here we also present the results obtained using a fractal approach for the seismic sequence. Earthquakes belong to a class of phenomena known as multifractals. In general it is important to define the fractal dimension D, but sometimes is not useful if we are describing a natural phenomenon; so it is necessary to define D ₀ called box-counting dimension and D ₂ called correlation dimension, usually D ₀ ≥ D ₂. In the elaborations of the fractal dimensions, for this sequence, we have obtained values lesser than 1, with a greater tendency of aftershocks to clusterize in time before a large aftershock. This is coherent with the possible existence of seismic anomalies, that could occur before the large aftershock. We also report the results obtained by using the delta/sigma method described firstly in [Caccamo et al., 2005] and later applied to different seismic sequence. The observed temporal series of the aftershocks per day can be considered as a sum of a deterministic and a stochastic contribution. If the decay can be modeled as a non-stationary Poissonian process, the number of aftershocks in a small time interval Δt is the mean value n(t) Δt, with a standard deviation (δ = √n(t)Δt. Investigating both aftershock behavior and a wide spectrum of parameters may find the key to explain better the mechanism of seismicity as a whole.     

Modelling of stormwater biofilters under random hydrologic variability: a case study of a car park at Monash University,Victoria (Australia)

Biofiltration systems represent an effective technology for the management of urban stormwater runoff volumes and quality. The performance of these systems, although largely dependent on their physical characteristics, is also strongly affected by the natural variability of runoff occurrence and volumes. This article presents a model that describes the statistical behaviour of the main variables involved in the water balance of a biofiltration system, given its main physical properties (filter media and vegetation types) and accounting for the natural inflow variability in terms of occurrence and water volumes. The model permits the analytical derivation of the long‐term (e.g. annual) probability density function of the soil water content in the filter media and the estimation of the main statistics of water fluxes, that is, outflow, evapotranspiration and overflow. By relating the soil water content in the filter media before inflow events to the outflow total nitrogen concentrations, the model also gives estimates of the statistics of nitrogen removal performance as a function of inflow variability. The model was tested against field data collected at a stormwater biofiltration system in Melbourne, Australia. The model could be used to rapidly assess the hydrologic and nitrogen treatment performance of alternative applications of biofiltration for stormwater management across a range of climates. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Kinematic significance of mingling-rolling structures in lava flows: a case study from Porri Volcano (Salina, Southern Tyrrhenian Sea)

 A basaltic andesite lava flow from Porri Volcano (Salina, Southern Tyrrhenian Sea) is composed of two different magmas. Magma A (51 vol.% of crystals) has a dacitic glass composition, and magma B (18 vol.% of crystals), a basaltic glass composition. Magma B is hosted in A and consists of sub-spherical enclaves and boudin-like, banding and rolling structures (RS). Four types of RS have been recognized: σ–type;δ–type; complex σ-δ–types and transitional structures between sub-spherical enclaves and rolling structures. An analysis of the RS has been performed in order to reconstruct the flow kinematics and the mechanism of flow emplacement. Rolling structures have been selected in three sites located at different distances from the vent. In all sites most RS show the same sense of shear. Kinematic analysis of RS allows the degree of flow non-coaxiality to be determined. The non-coaxiality is expressed by the kinematic vorticity number Wk, a measure of the ratio Sr between pure shear strain rate and simple shear strain rate. The values of Wk calculated from the measured shapes of microscopic RS increase with increasing distance from the vent, from approximately 0.5 to 0.9. Results of the structural analysis reveal that the RS formed during the early–intermediate stage of flow emplacement. They represent originally sub-spherical enclaves deformed at low shear strain. At higher strain, RS deformed to give boudin-like and stretched banding structures. Results of the kinematic analysis suggest that high viscosity lava flows are heterogeneous non-ideal shear flows in which the degree of non-coaxiality increases with the distance from the vent. In the vent area, deformation is intermediate between simple shear and pure shear. Farther from the vent, deformation approaches ideal simple shear. Lateral extension processes occur only in the near-vent zone, where they develop in response to the lateral push of magma extruded from the vent. Lateral shortening processes develop in the distal zone and record the gravity-driven movement of the lava. The lava flow advanced by two main mechanisms, lateral translation and rolling motion. Lateral translation equals rolling near the vent, while rolling motion prevailed in the distal zones. Received: 6 November 1997 / Accepted: 29 November 1997     

Relationships between deformation and mixing processes in lava flows: a case study from Salina (Aeolian Islands,Tyrrhenian Sea)

 The massive unit of a lava flow from Porri volcano (Salina, Aeolian Islands) displays many unusual structures related to the physical interaction between two different magmas. The magma A represents approximately 80% of the exposed lava surface; it has a crystal content of 51 vol.% and a dacitic glass composition (SiO₂=63–64 wt.%). The magma B has a basaltic-andesite glass composition (SiO₂=54–55 wt.%) and a crystal content of approximately 18 vol.%. It occurs as pillow-like enclaves, banding, boudin-like and rolling structures which are hosted in magma A. Structural analysis suggests that banding and boudin-like structures are the result of the deformation of enclaves at different shear strain. The linear correlation between strain and stratigraphic height of the measured elements indicates a single mode of deformation. We deduce that the component B deformed according to a simple shear model. Glass analyses of the A–B boundary indicate that A and B liquids mix together at high shear strain, whereas only mingling occurs at low shear strain. This suggests that the amount of deformation (i.e. forced convection) plays an important role in the formation of hybrid magmas. High shear strain may induce stretching, shearing and rolling of fluids which promote both forced convection and dynamical diffusion processes. These processes allow mixing of magmas with large differences in their physical properties. Received: 15 July 1995 / Accepted: 30 May 1996     

Archaeoseismic evidence for a Late Roman earthquake in the Crotone area (Ionian Calabria, Southern Italy): Seismotectonic implications

The earthquakes of Calabria are among the strongest in the whole Mediterranean, and they all occurred between the disruptive sequences of 1638 and 1908 (6.7 ≤ M ≤ 7.2). Recent paleoseismological studies show that the return time of these events on their causative fault are larger than 1 ky, thus making ancient earthquakes not recognizable through ‘conventional’ historical research. On the other hand, in those areas characterized by highly erodible deposits, the identification and paleoseismic trenching of active seismogenetic faults has remained a challenge. In order to overcome these issues, we took an archaeoseismological approach for casting light on earthquake occurrence in one of these regions, i.e., the SE area of central Ionian Calabria (Marchesato region). The extensive traces of simultaneous and abrupt collapses in the Roman settlement of Capo Colonna (in the area of the sixth and fifth b.c. sanctuary of Hera Lacinia, near the town of Crotone) are evidence of a disruptive earthquake, which occurred possibly in the third century a.d. To the same event we ascribe the definitive collapse of the Hera Lacinia temple. Considering the seismotectonic framework of the region, this event could be tentatively associated with the active fault system which cuts from NW to SE the whole Sila massif and its Ionian slope, and which should be responsible for all the others known M > 6 earthquakes in the area.     

Sulfur dioxide emissions from Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): case study of a high-emission rate, passively degassing erupting volcano

Popocatépetl volcano in central Mexico has been erupting explosively and effusively for almost 4 years. SO₂ emission rates from this volcano have been the largest ever measured using a COSPEC. Pre-eruptive average SO₂ emission rates (2–3 kt/d) were similar to the emission rates measured during the first part of the eruption (up to August 1995) in contrast with the effusive–explosive periods (March 1996–January 1998) during which SO₂ emission rates were higher by a factor of four (9–13 kt/d). Based on a chronology of the eruption and the average SO₂ emission rates per period, the total SO₂ emissions (up to 1 January 1998) are estimated to be about 9 Mt, roughly half as much as the SO₂ emissions from Mount Pinatubo in a shorter period. Popocatépetl volcano is thus considered as a high-emission rate, passively degassing eruptive volcano. SO₂ emission rates and SO₂ emissions are used here to make a mass balance of the erupted magma and related gases. Identified excess SO₂ is explained in terms of continuous degassing of unerupted magma and magma mixing. Fluctuations in SO₂ emission rate may be a result of convection and crystallization in the chamber or the conduits, cleaning and sealing of the plumbing system, and/or SO₂ scrubbing by the hydrothermal system.     

Application of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to volcano mapping in the humid tropics: a case study in East Java, Indonesia

 Volcanoes in humid tropical environments are frequently cloud covered, typically densely vegetated and rapidly eroded. These factors complicate field and laboratory studies and even the basic identification of potentially active volcanoes. Numerous previous studies have highlighted the potential value of radar remote sensing for volcanology in equatorial regions. Here, cloud- and vegetation-penetrating L_HH-band (λ≈24 cm) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data from the Japanese Earth Resources Satellite (JERS-1) are used to investigate persistently active volcanoes and prehistoric calderas in East Java, Indonesia. The L_HH-band JERS-1 SAR produces high-spatial-resolution (18 m) imagery with relatively high incidence angle that highlights structures and topographic variations at or greater than the wavelength scale while minimising geometrical distortions such as layover and foreshortening. These images, along with Internet browse data derived from the Canadian RADARSAT mission, provide new evidence relating regional tectonics to volcanism throughout East Java. Volcanic events, such as caldera collapse at the Tengger caldera, appear to have been partly controlled by northwest-aligned faults related to intra-arc sedimentary basins. Similar regional controls appear important at historically active Lamongan volcano, which is encircled by numerous flank maars and cinder cones. A previously undocumented pyroclastic sheet and debris avalanche deposit from the Jambangan caldera complex is also manifested in the synoptic radar images. At the currently active Semeru volcano these data permit identification of recent pyroclastic flow and lahar deposits. Radar data therefore offer a valuable tool for mapping and hazard assessment at late Quaternary volcanoes. The criteria developed in the analysis here could be applied to other regions in the humid tropics. Received: 25 June 1998 / Accepted: 20 January 1999     

InSAR analysis of a blind thrust rupture and related active folding: the 1999 Ain Temouchent earthquake (M w 5.7, Algeria) case study

We study the surface deformation associated with the 22 December 1999 earthquake, a moderate sized but damaging event at Ain Temouchent (northwestern Algeria) using Interferometric Satellite Aperture Radar images (InSAR). The mainshock focal mechanism solution indicates reverse faulting with a NE–SW trending rupture comparable to other major seismic events of this section of the Africa–Eurasia plate boundary. Previously, the earthquake fault parameters were, however, poorly known because no aftershocks were precisely determined and no coseismic surface ruptures were observed in the field. Using a pair of ERS data with small baseline and short temporal separation in the ascending orbit we obtained an interferogram that shows the coseismic surface displacement field despite poor coherence. The interferogram measures four fringes and displays an ellipse-shaped lobe with ∼11 cm peak line-of-sight displacement. The elastic modeling using a boundary element method (Poly3Dinv) indicate coseismic slip reaching up to 1 m at 5 km depth on the N 57° E trending, dipping 32° NW Tafna thrust fault. The geodetic estimate of seismic moment is 4.7 × 10¹⁷ N m. (Mw 5.7) in is good agreement with seismological results. The elliptical shape of the surface displacement field coincides with the NE–SW trending Berdani fault-related fold. The consistency between the geological observations and InSAR solution shed light on the precise earthquake location and related Tafna fault parameters.     

A 3-d model of quaternary terrace development,simulations of terrace stratigraphy and valley asymmetry: A case study for the allier terraces (limagne,France)

The combined effects of climate and tectonism on general terrace stratigraphy and valley asymmetry during the last half million years in the Allier system (France) are simulated by a 3-D conceptual model (LIMTER). This model allows the formulation and evaluation of long term terrace formation scenarios for the Allier system. Simulation results suggest that terrace stratigraphy in the study area is mainly the result of internal dynamics and climatic change. Local tectonism contributed to the development of unpaired terraces while the general regional uplift played a dominant role in determining terrace formation and preservation in general.