“20世纪气候“及“季节与年际气候预测“联合专题研讨会在布拉格召开

2005年7月4-6日在捷克共和国首都布拉格召开了世界气象组织的科学研究项目“世界气候研究项目”(WCRP)下设的两个课题“20世纪气候”(C20C)和“季节与年际气候预测”(WGSIP)联合专题研讨会。会议由两个课题的负责单位英国哈得莱中心(HADL)和美国海洋-陆地-大气研究中心(COLA)的有关领导和科学家主持,包括来     

“干旱气候变化与可持续发展国际学术研讨会“在兰州召开

“干旱气候变化与可持续发展国际学术研讨会(ISACS)”于2005年5月23-24日在甘肃兰州隆重召开,这次会议是由中国气象局、国家自然科学基金委员会、甘肃省人民政府共同主办的一次大型国际学术会议,来自中国、美国、澳大利亚、加拿大、英国、瑞典、荷兰、德国、俄罗斯、日本、印度、乌兹别克斯坦等12个国家的210多位中外气象专家和相关领导参加了本次会议。     

会讯

CRCES年代际气候变率会议将于2005年10月17-20日在美国维吉尼亚召开PAGES第二届开放科学大会将于2005年8月10-12日在中国北京召开中英气候变化学术研讨会已于2005年7月18-20日在中国北京召开。会议主题:利用气候模式综合预报在不同排放情景下,平均和极端气候事件的变化趋势与分布及其影响范围;气候变化对社会经济影响的评估及中英有关适应与减缓技术。主办单位:中国国家自然科学基金委员会、英国自然环境理事会、英国驻华大使馆。承办单位:中国气象局国家气候中心。     

三江源区气候变化及其影响与适应对策学术研讨会在北京召开

由中国气象局、世界自然基金会(WWF)、中国青藏高原研究会、国家林业局、青海省科技厅等七个部门联合举办的三江源区气候变化及其影响与适应对策学术研讨会于2005年6月21-22日在北京召开。     

中英合作“通过激励机制促进低碳发展“项目启动

2005年7月19日中国社会科学院可持续发展研究中心在北京召开研讨会,正式启动“通过激励机制促进低碳发展”研究项目。英国驻华使馆的官员、国家发展和改革委员会国家气候变化对策协调小组办公室的官员参加了会议。     

2005年全国气象软科学目标管理专题学术研讨会在宜昌举行

2005年9月6-7日，2005年全国气象软科学目标管理专题研讨会在湖北宜昌举行。这次会议由中国气象学会气象软科学委员会和中国气象局办公室联合举办，湖北省气象局和宜昌市气象局承办。来自中国气象局机关、各内设机构和各省、市自治区气象局，以及解放军总参谋部气象局、空军司令部气象局、新疆生产建设兵团气象局和南京信息工程大学的近50位代表参加了这次会议。     

"中美STSI大气科学合作研究学术研讨会"在京召开

应中国气象科学研究院与中国科学院大气物理研究所关于青藏高原地区边界层-对流层-平流层相互作用(Surface-Troposphere-Stratosphere Interaction(STSI))合作研究联合专家组的邀请,以佐治亚理工大学Robert Dickinson院士和加利福尼亚大学K.N.Liou院士为首的美方专家组于2005年8月5日访问中国气象科学研究院。中美双方专家组就青藏高原STSI研究问题举行了学术研讨会。出席这次研讨会的有国家自然科学基金委员会地球科学部负责人陆则慰与罗云峰,中国气象科学研究院张人禾院长、周秀骥院士,中国气象局国际合作司韩菲、科技发展司高云处…     

“IPCC主席团第34次届会“情况介绍

“IPCC主席团第34次届会”于2005年8月30- 31日在日内瓦召开。经国务院批准,IPCC第一工作组联合主席、中国气象局局长秦大河院士出席了会议。会议讨论的主要议题包括: 1 IPCC第四次评估报告(AR4)综合报告管理会议IPCC主席于2005年7月7-8日在荷兰主持召     

中美干旱监测评估研讨会总结

1基本情况 2005年11月15～17日中美干旱监测评估研讨会在中国气象科学研究院召开。会议由中国气象局科技发展司和国际合作司主办，中国气象科学研究院和国家气候中心承办。中国气象局郑国光副局长为参加研讨会的中美双方全体代表举行了欢迎招待会。     

国际会议报道

2005年5月22～23日，中国气象局、国家自然科学基金委员会和甘肃省人民政府在甘肃兰州联合召开了名为“干旱气候变化与可持续发展(ISACS)”的国际学术研讨会。     

气候变化国家评估报告（II）：气候变化的影响与适应

已经观测到的气候变化影响是显著的、多方面的。各个领域和地区都存在有利和不利影响,但以不利影响为主,未来的气候变暖将会对中国的生态系统、农业以及水资源等部门和沿海地区产生重大的不利影响。采取适应措施可以减轻气候变化的不利影响,应将适应气候变化的行动逐步纳入国民经济和社会发展的中长期规划中。由于我国科学研究的相对不足和科学认识能力的局限,目前的气候变化影响评估方法和结果还存在很大的不确定性。应当加强区域适应气候变化的案例研究、扩大研究领域、加强极端天气、气候事件影响的研究,以降低影响评估的不确定性,并提出切实可行的适应对策。     

Temperature Extremes from Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) Climate Change Projections

Future climate projections of extreme events can help forewarn society of high-impact events and allow the development of better adaptation strategies. In this study a non-stationary model for Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions is used to analyze the trend in extreme temperatures in the context of a changing climate and compare it with the trend in average temperatures.

The analysis is performed using the climate projections of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), under an IPCC SRES A2 greenhouse gas emissions scenario, over North America. Annual extremes in daily minimum and maximum temperatures are analyzed. Significant positive trends for the location parameter of the GEV distribution are found, indicating an expected increase in extreme temperature values. The scale parameter of the GEV distribution, on the other hand, reveals a decrease in the variability of temperature extremes in some continental regions. Trends in the annual minimum and maximum temperatures are compared with trends in average winter and summer temperatures, respectively. In some regions, extreme temperatures exhibit a significantly larger increase than the seasonal average temperatures.

The CRCM projections are compared with those of its driving model and framed in the context of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3) Global Climate Model projections. This enables us to establish the CRCM position within the CMIP3 climate projection uncertainty range. The CRCM is validated against the HadEX2 dataset in order to assess the CRCM representation of temperature extremes in the present climate. The validation is also framed in the context of CMIP3 validation results. The CRCM cold extremes validate better and are closer to the driving model and CMIP3 projections than the hot extremes.     

气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅱ):气候变化的影响与适应

Significant and various impacts of climate change have been observed in China, showing both positive and adverse effects, dominantly the latter, in different sectors and regions. It is very likely that future climate change would cause significant adverse impacts on the ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, and coastal zones in China. Adoption of adaptive measures to climate change can alleviate the adverse impact, therefore such measures should be incorporated into the medium-and long-term national economic and social development plans. Because China has done relatively limited research on impact assessment and our understanding of climate change is incomplete, the current impact assessment methodologies used and results obtained contain many uncertainties. To reduce the uncertainties and develop effective and practical climate change adaptive measures in China, it is necessary to emphasize regional case studies on adaptive measures, enlarge the scope of climate change research, and strengthen the assessment of the impacts resulted from extreme weather/climate events.     

Climate change projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)

We investigate major results of the NARCCAP multiple regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by multiple global climate models (GCMs) regarding climate change for seasonal temperature and precipitation over North America. We focus on two major questions: How do the RCM simulated climate changes differ from those of the parent GCMs and thus affect our perception of climate change over North America, and how important are the relative contributions of RCMs and GCMs to the uncertainty (variance explained) for different seasons and variables? The RCMs tend to produce stronger climate changes for precipitation: larger increases in the northern part of the domain in winter and greater decreases across a swath of the central part in summer, compared to the four GCMs driving the regional models as well as to the full set of CMIP3 GCM results. We pose some possible process-level mechanisms for the difference in intensity of change, particularly for summer. Detailed process-level studies will be necessary to establish mechanisms and credibility of these results. The GCMs explain more variance for winter temperature and the RCMs for summer temperature. The same is true for precipitation patterns. Thus, we recommend that future RCM-GCM experiments over this region include a balanced number of GCMs and RCMs.     

Climate sensitivity of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM2) to horizontal resolution

The dependence on horizontal resolution of the climate simulated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2) is explored. Simulations employing R15, T21, T31, T42, T63, and T106 horizontal spectral truncations are compared. Parameters associated with the diagnostic cloud scheme are modified for each resolution to provide similar global average cloud radiative forcing at each resolution. Overall, as with earlier studies, there are large differences between the low resolution R15 and T21 simulations and the medium resolution T42 simulation. Many climate statistics show a monotonic signal with increasing resolution, with the largest variation occurring from low to medium resolution. Although the monotonic signal is often from the low resolution simulations toward atmospheric analyses, in some cases it continues beyond the analyses at the highest resolution. Where convergence occurs, it is not always to the atmospheric analyses, and the highest resolution simulations are not the best by all measures. Although many climate statistics converge, the processes that maintain the climate do not, especially when considered on a regional basis. The implication is that the finer scales are required to capture the nonlinear processes that force the medium scales. Overall, it appears that, at a minimum, T42 resolution is required, but higher resolution would be better. Applications at T42 should take into consideration how model errors indicated by these resolution signals might affect any findings.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

“韩国气候变化专门委员会“成立

2005年5月30日和6月8日,韩国环境部和气象厅分别举行了“韩国气候变化专门委员会”(Korean Panel on Climate Change, KPCC)成立大会,韩国环境部长官郭决镐和气象厅厅长申庆燮参加了成立仪式。     

气候变化国家评估报告（Ⅰ）：中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势

 中国的气候变化与全球变化有相当的一致性，但也存在明显差别。在全球变暖背景下，近100 a来中国年平均地表气温明显增加，升温幅度比同期全球平均值略高。近100 a和近50 a的降水量变化趋势不明显，但1956年以来出现了微弱增加的趋势。近50 a来中国主要极端天气气候事件的频率和强度也出现了明显的变化。研究表明，中国的CO2年排放量呈不断增加趋势，温室气体正辐射强迫的总和是造成气候变暖的主要原因。对21世纪气候变化趋势做出的预测表明：未来20～100 a，中国地表气温增加明显，降水量也呈增加趋势。     

气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅰ):中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势

The climate change in China shows a considerable similarity to the global change, though there still exist some significant differences between them. In the context of the global warming, the annual mean surface air temperature in the country as a whole has significantly increased for the past 50 years and 100 years, with the range of temperature increase slightly greater than that in the globe. The change in precipitation trends for the last 50 and 100 years was not significant, but since 1956 it has assumed a weak increasing trend. The frequency and intensity of main extreme weather and climate events have also undergone a significant change. The researches show that the atmospheric CO2 concentration in China has continuously increased and the sum of positive radiative forcings produced by greenhouse gases is probably responsible for the country-wide climate warming for the past 100 years, especially for the past 50 years. The projections of climate change for the 21st century using global and regional climate models indicate that, in the future 20-100 years, the surface air temperature will continue to increase and the annual precipitation also has an increasing trend for most parts of the country.