Glacier Retreat, Mass-Balance and Thinning: Sermilik Glacier, South Greenland

This study documents thinning and retreat of the South Greenland ice margin and discusses possible reasons in the light of mass‐balance and change of dynamic conditions. Analyses of satellite images have shown that the glacier tongue of Sermilik glacier disintegrated within the past 15 years. Furthermore, the observed thinning close to the Sermilik glacier front was as much as 120 m water equivalent during this period. This figure was derived by comparing surface elevation data from a digital elevation model (1985) and laser altimeter measurements from the year 2000, showing surface elevation changes along a flow line of Sermilik glacier. Mass‐balance data from in situ measurements performed at a centre flow line of the glacier are presented. These data are compared to results from remote sensing analyses of the study area. Net ablation reconstruction over the last 41 years from positive‐degree‐day modelling, at various locations along the Sermilik glacier massbalance transect, shows an increase during the past decades. These analyses indicate that only 55% of the total thinning in this area can be explained by mass‐balance changes. The remaining 45% of the thinning is attributed to changes in the dynamic behaviour of the glacier, such as an increase of creep towards the end of the twentieth century. The significant thinning along the Qagssimiut lobe can also be explained as a combination of mass‐balance changes and changes in ice dynamic behaviour.     

Remnants of the Waikato: Native forest survival in a production landscape

Abstract: This paper addresses the issue of conservation of native biodiversity on privately owned farmland in New Zealand. Based on surveys of Waikato dairy farmers as exemplars of intensive agricultural practice, it examines factors that influence the survival of native forest on land with potential for commercial production. Results suggest that a significant proportion of Waikato dairy farmers regard native forest favourably, although the proportion of farmers who actively conserve their forest is small. Factors that assist the persistence of native forest on dairy farms include personal characteristics of the farmer, past accidents of history which have left forest remnants in place, and physical characteristics of the farm such as topography. While the conservation of native biodiversity within this intensively farmed landscape is strongly influenced by political economy pressures that encourage production, non‐utilitarian motives such as aesthetic enjoyment and family heritage can serve to counter the production ethic.     

Event sedimentation in low‐latitude deep‐water carbonate basins,Anegada passage,northeast Caribbean

The Virgin Islands and Whiting basins in the Northeast Caribbean are deep, structurally controlled depocentres partially bound by shallow‐water carbonate platforms. Closed basins such as these are thought to document earthquake and hurricane events through the accumulation of event layers such as debris flow and turbidity current deposits and the internal deformation of deposited material. Event layers in the Virgin Islands and Whiting basins are predominantly thin and discontinuous, containing varying amounts of reef‐ and slope‐derived material. Three turbidites/sandy intervals in the upper 2 m of sediment in the eastern Virgin Islands Basin were deposited between ca. 2000 and 13 600 years ago, but do not extend across the basin. In the central and western Virgin Islands Basin, a structureless clay‐rich interval is interpreted to be a unifite. Within the Whiting Basin, several discontinuous turbidites and other sand‐rich intervals are primarily deposited in base of slope fans. The youngest of these turbidites is ca. 2600 years old. Sediment accumulation in these basins is low (<0.1 mm year^?1) for basin adjacent to carbonate platform, possibly due to limited sediment input during highstand sea‐level conditions, sediment trapping and/or cohesive basin walls. We find no evidence of recent sediment transport (turbidites or debris flows) or sediment deformation that can be attributed to the ca. M7.2 1867 Virgin Islands earthquake whose epicentre was located on the north wall of the Virgin Islands Basin or to recent hurricanes that have impacted the region. The lack of significant appreciable pebble or greater size carbonate material in any of the available cores suggests that submarine landslide and basin‐wide blocky debris flows have not been a significant mechanism of basin margin modification in the last several thousand years. Thus, basins such as those described here may be poor recorders of past natural hazards, but may provide a long‐term record of past oceanographic conditions in ocean passages.     

Regional differentiation of ecological conservation and its zonal suitability at the county level in China

China’s investments, financial incentives and deductions in terms of ecological conservation are based at the county level. Therefore, the monitoring and assessment of the effects of ecological conservation at the county level is important to provide a scientific basis for the assessment of the ecological and environmental quality at the county scale. This paper quantitatively estimated the dynamics of high-quality ecosystems and vegetation coverage over the past 15 years, and their relationships with the number of ecological conservation programs at the county level were analyzed. Then, the effects of ecological conservation measures on ecological changes at the county level and their regional suitability were assessed and discussed. The results showed that counties with a percentage of high-quality ecosystems greater than 50% were primarily distributed in northeastern China, southern subtropical China and the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and those with a percentage lower than 20% were mostly distributed in northwestern China, the southwestern karst region and the North China Plain. In recent decades, ecological conservation has focused on ecologically fragile regions; more than five ecological conservation programs have been implemented in most counties of the Three River Source Region in Qinghai Province, southeastern Tibet, western Sichuan, the Qilian Mountains, southern Xinjiang and other western regions, while only one or zero have been implemented in the eastern coastal area of China. Over the past 15 years, the proportional area of high-quality ecosystems has increased in approximately 53% of counties. The vegetation coverage of counties in the Loess Plateau, Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji), Sichuan-Guizhou-Chongqing, and Guangdong-Guangxi provincial-level areas has increased significantly. However, it decreased in northern Xinjiang, central Tibet, central and eastern Inner Mongolia, the Yangtze River Delta and other regions. The relationships between the numbers of ecological conservation programs and the indicators of ecosystem restoration response, such as high-quality ecosystem and vegetation coverage, do not show positive correlations. These results suggest that ecological conservation programs should be planned and implemented according to the distribution patterns of high-quality ecosystems and that restoration measures such as afforestation should follow natural principles and regional differentiation under the background of climate change.     

中国县域尺度生态保护的地域分异及其适宜性（英文）

China's investments, financial incentives and deductions in terms of ecological conservation are based at the county level. Therefore, the monitoring and assessment of the effects of ecological conservation at the county level is important to provide a scientific basis for the assessment of the ecological and environmental quality at the county scale. This paper quantitatively estimated the dynamics of high-quality ecosystems and vegetation coverage over the past 15 years, and their relationships with the number of ecological conservation programs at the county level were analyzed. Then, the effects of ecological conservation measures on ecological changes at the county level and their regional suitability were assessed and discussed. The results showed that counties with a percentage of high-quality ecosystems greater than 50% were primarily distributed in northeastern China, southern subtropical China and the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and those with a percentage lower than 20% were mostly distributed in northwestern China, the southwestern karst region and the North China Plain. In recent decades, ecological conservation has focused on ecologically fragile regions; more than five ecological conservation programs have been implemented in most counties of the Three River Source Region in Qinghai Province, southeastern Tibet, western Sichuan, the Qilian Mountains, southern Xinjiang and other western regions, while only one or zero have been implemented in the eastern coastal area of China. Over the past 15 years, the proportional area of high-quality ecosystems has increased in approximately 53% of counties. The vegetation coverage of counties in the Loess Plateau, Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(Jing-Jin-Ji), Sichuan-Guizhou-Chongqing, and Guangdong-Guangxi provincial-level areas has increased significantly. However, it decreased in northern Xinjiang, central Tibet, central and eastern Inner Mongolia, the Yangtze River Delta and other regions. The relationships between the numbers of ecological conservation programs and the indicators of ecosystem restoration response, such as high-quality ecosystem and vegetation coverage, do not show positive correlations. These results suggest that ecological conservation programs should be planned and implemented according to the distribution patterns of high-quality ecosystems and that restoration measures such as afforestation should follow natural principles and regional differentiation under the background of climate change.     

中国县域尺度生态保护的地域分异及其适宜性

鉴于中国对生态保护的投入与奖惩皆以县域为基本单元,需要开展县域尺度生态保护效果的监测评估,以期为县域生态环境质量考核提供科学依据。本文定量分析了近15年县域尺度优良生态系统面积及植被覆盖度变化,及其与生态保护项目数量的关系,进而评估生态保护措施在县域生态变化中的效果,并评价工程措施的地域适宜性。结果表明：① 中国东北地区、南方亚热带区、青藏高原东南部的县域优良生态系统面积占比多高于50%,西北地区、西南喀斯特区、华北平原等县域优良生态系统占比多低于20%。② 近几十年,生态保护重点是生态脆弱区,青海三江源、藏东南、川西、祁连山、新疆南部等西部地区的县域生态保护项目数量多大于5个,东部沿海地区则少于或等于1个。③ 2000-2015年,中国53%县域的优良生态系统面积占比提高,黄土高原、黄淮海平原、京津冀、川黔渝、两广等地区的县域植被覆盖度明显上升,而新疆北部、西藏中部、内蒙古中东部等干旱半干旱区、长三角等区域植被覆盖度下降。④ 生态保护项目数量与优良生态系统、植被覆盖度变化等反映生态状况改善的指标并未呈现正相关关系,生态保护应遵循优良生态系统分布格局,气候变化背景下造林等工程措施应遵循自然规律与地带性差异。     

Temporal change in the landscape erosion pattern in the Yellow River Basin,China

Using Landsat TM data from 1995 and 2000, changes in the landscape erosion pattern of the Yellow River Basin, China were analysed. The aim was to improve our understanding of soil‐erosion change so that sustainable land use could be established. First, a soil‐erosion intensity index model was developed to study soil‐erosion intensity change in the study area. Over the 5 years, the areas of weak erosion, moderate erosion, severe erosion, and very severe erosion all increased. The area of weak erosion increased dramatically by 7.94×10⁵ ha, and areas of slight erosion and acute erosion decreased by 1.93×10⁶ ha and 4.50×10⁴ ha, respectively. The results show that while the intensity of soil erosion has gradually been decreasing as a whole, in some regions the soil erosion is becoming more severe. Based on landscape indices, the pattern of changes in soil erosion over the past 5 years was analysed. The changes in landscape pattern of soil erosion resulted from human activities. Analysis showed that human impact increases fragmentation, having three major effects on landscape pattern, reduction in patch area, variations in patch shape, and changes in spatial pattern. In the study area, population growth, farming, governmental policy and forest degradation are the major factors causing soil erosion change over a 5‐year period.     

Temporal change and suitability assessment of cropland in the Yellow River Basin during 1990–2005

Rapid landscape pattern change has taken place in many arid and semi-arid regions of China such as Yellow River Basin over the past decade. In this article, the physical suitability of cropland and its change were evaluated and analyzed by the combined use of satellite remote sensing, geographical information system, and landscape modeling technologies. The aim was to improve our understanding of cropland change so that sustainable cropland utilization could be established. First, the spatial pattern change of cropland was analyzed using the 1-km² area percentage model; second, the numerical model for cropland suitability assessment was explored and developed using analytical hierarchy process analysis method. Using this model, cropland suitability index was computed for the whole of the basin from 1990 to 2005. The cropland suitability index was classified into five levels: better, good, middle, bad, and worse, following the natural breaks classification. The spatial distribution of cropland suitability level and its changes over the 15 years from 1990 to 2005 were analyzed and the driving factors of cropland change were investigated. The results showed that the cropland suitability in the study area was at good level, and the cropland quality had been gradually improved on the whole. However, the cropland quality had become worse over the 15 years in some regions. In the study area, governmental policies for eco-environmental protection and population growth were found to be the major factors that caused the cropland change over the past 15 years.     

Tectono‐sedimentary evolution of the western Corinth rift (Central Greece)

The Corinth rift (Greece) is one of the world's most active rifts. The early Plio‐Pleistocene rift is preserved in the northern Peloponnese peninsula, south of the active Corinth rift. Although chronostratigraphic resolution is limited, new structural, stratigraphic and sedimentological data for an area >400 km² record early rift evolution in three phases separated by distinct episodes of extension rate acceleration and northward fault migration associated with major erosion. Minimum total N–S extension is estimated at 6.4–7.7 km. The earliest asymmetrical, broad rift accommodated slow extension (0.6–1 mm a^?1) over >3 Myrs and closed to the west. North‐dipping faults with throws of 1000–2200 m defined narrow blocks (4–7 km) with little footwall relief. A N‐NE flowing antecedent river system infilled significant inherited relief (Lower group). In the earliest Pleistocene, significant fluvial incision coincided with a 15 km northward rift margin migration. Extension rates increased to 2–2.5 mm a^?1. The antecedent rivers then built giant Gilbert‐type fan deltas (Middle group) north into a deepening lacustrine/marine basin. N‐dipping, basin margin faults accommodated throws <1500 m. Delta architecture records initiation, growth and death of this fault system over ca. 800 ka. In the Middle Pleistocene, the rift margin again migrated 5 km north. Extension rate increased to 3.4–4.8 mm a^?1. This transition may correspond to an unconformity in offshore lithostratigraphy. Middle group deltas were uplifted and incised as new hangingwall deltas built into the Gulf (Upper group). A final increase to present‐day extension rates (11–16 mm a^?1) probably occurred in the Holocene. Fault and fault block dimensions did not change significantly with time suggesting control by crustal rheological layering. Extension rate acceleration may be due to strain softening or to regional tectonic factors.     

Provenance and tectonic implications of Orán Group foreland basin sediments,Río Iruya canyon,NW Argentina (23° S)

Foreland basins are important recorders of tectonic and climatic processes in evolving mountain ranges. The Río Iruya canyon of NW Argentina (23° S) exposes ca. 7500 m of Orán Group foreland basin sediments, spanning over 8 Myr of near continuous deposition in the Central Andes. This study presents a record of sedimentary provenance for the Iruya Section in the context of a revised stratigraphic chronology. We use U‐Pb zircon ages from six interbedded ash layers and new magnetostratigraphy to constrain depositional ages in the section between 1.94 and 6.49 Ma, giving an average sedimentation rate of 0.93 ± 0.02 (2σ) km Myr^?1. We then pair U‐Pb detrital zircon dating with quartz trace‐element analysis to track changes in sedimentary provenance from ca. 7.6 to 1.8 Ma. Results suggest that from ca. 7.6 to ca. 6.3 Ma, the Iruya watershed did not tap the Salta Group or Neogene volcanics that are currently exposed in the eastern Cordillera and Puna margin. One explanation is that a long‐lived topographic barrier separated the eastern Puna from the foreland for much of the mid‐late Miocene, and that the arrival of Jurassic‐Neogene zircons records regional tectonic reactivation at ca. 6.3 Ma. A second major provenance shift at ca. 4 Ma is marked by changes in the zircon and quartz populations, which appear to be derived from a restricted source region in Proterozoic‐Ordovician meta‐sediments. Considered in conjunction with the onset of coarse conglomerate deposition, we attribute this shift to accelerated uplift of the Santa Victoria range, which currently defines the catchment's western limit. A third shift at ca. 2.3 Ma records an apparent disconnection of the Iruya with the eastern Puna, perhaps due to defeat of the proto Rio‐Iruya by the rising Santa Victoria range. This study is one of the first applications of quartz trace‐element provenance analysis, which we show to be an effective complement to U‐Pb detrital zircon dating when appropriate statistical methods are applied.     

The Burrum River estuary: identifying reference sites for Australian sub-tropical estuarine systems using paleolimnological methods

There is a pressing need to obtain historical information on estuaries so that levels of natural variability and ecosystem thresholds can be identified. Once these factors are known, estuaries that exhibit high conservation value and minimal impact from anthropogenic activity can be acknowledged and protected. In order to understand and quantify the level of change that may have occurred due to human impact, near pristine estuaries that have the potential to act as reference sites need to be identified. However, this is often difficult due to a lack of documented knowledge of estuary variability. This paper retrospectively assesses environmental conditions in the Burrum River, a sub-tropical east Australian estuary on the coast of Queensland, using diatom and stable isotope analyses. These techniques were combined with AMS ¹⁴C dating methods to determine if this system has undergone any natural or anthropogenically induced change. Diatom assemblages have shown very little variation over the past 5,000 years, indicating minimal changes to water quality. Upper and lower limits for δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N stable isotope results also infer that the sources of carbon and nitrogen to the Burrum River estuary have remained constant over this time period. Carbon inputs have been dominated by marine autotrophic production, whilst nitrogen inputs are indicative of terrestrial sources. Hence, the Burrum River has not been altered by anthropogenic activities and is a suitable reference site for benchmarking impacted sub-tropical estuaries. This paper demonstrates that paleolimnological techniques can be applied successfully to identify estuaries that are suitable as reference sites.     

Sedimentary evidence for late Messinian uplift of the SE margin of the Central Anatolian Plateau: Adana Basin,southern Turkey

The Adana Basin of southern Turkey, located at the SE margin of the Central Anatolian Plateau in the vicinity of the Arabia‐Eurasia collision zone, is ideally suited to record Neogene and Quaternary topographic and tectonic changes in the easternmost Mediterranean realm. On the basis of our correlation of 34 seismic reflection profiles with corresponding exposed units along the margins of the Adana Basin, we identify and characterize the seismic facies that corresponds to the upper part of the Messinian Handere Formation (ca. 5.45 to 5.33 Ma), which consists mainly of fluvial conglomerates and marls. The seismic reflection profiles indicate that ca. 1100 km³ of the Handere Formation upper sub‐unit is distributed over ca. 3000 km², reflecting local sedimentation rates of up to 12.5 mm year^?1. This indicates a major increase in both sediment supply and subsidence rates at ca. 5.45 Ma. Our provenance analysis of the Handere Formation upper sub‐unit based on clast counting and palaeocurrent measurements reveals that most of the sediment is derived from the Taurus Mountains at the SE margin of the Central Anatolian Plateau and regions farther north. A comparison of these results with the composition of recent fluvial conglomerates and the present‐day drainage basins indicates major changes between late Messinian and present‐day source areas. We suggest that these changes in drainage patterns and lithological characteristics result from uplift and ensuing erosion of the SE margin of the plateau. We interpret the tectonic evolution of the southern flank of the Anatolian Plateau and the coeval subsidence and sedimentation in the Adana Basin to be related to deep lithospheric processes, particularly lithospheric delamination and slab break‐off.     

Challenges Of Elephant Conservation: Insights From Oral Histories Of Colonialism And Landscape In Tsavo,Kenya

Understanding the reasons for conflict between elephants and people who live adjacent to conservation areas remains key to recruiting them as allies in preserving elephant populations. The Tsavo region of Kenya has become a notable battleground for elephant conservation in East Africa, characterized by ivory poachers, crop damages by elephants in communities adjacent to parks, and electric fencing to control human and wildlife mobility. Oral histories of six ethnic groups reveal how such human‐elephant conflict emerged during colonial times through a landscape transformation process involving elephants, livestock, people, and vegetation. The general trend over the past two centuries involves a transition from a precolonial modality characterized by human and elephant mobility to their increasing immobility, spatial separation, and conflict. Understanding of the historical emergence of that conflict forces recommendation of a change in policy direction, from further reducing mobility to restoration of mobility and spatial reintegration of people in parks. Keywords: colonialism and landscape, East Africa, elephant conservation, historical political ecology.     

利用MaxEnt研究印度中部秃鹫栖息地适宜性及气候变化的影响

秃鹫提供了宝贵的生态系统服务,在生态系统平衡中发挥着重要作用,但印度本土秃鹫数量在过去几年有所下降。掌握秃鹫栖息地的分布现状对于管理和防止秃鹫数量继续下降至关重要。可以预见,目前的气候危机可能会进一步导致秃鹫生境适宜性的变化,并影响现存的秃鹫种群。因此,本研究利用物种分布模型,对印度中部一个秃鹫栖息地的短期和长期变化进行预测,并以统计和图形的方式呈现数据。选择MaxEnt软件进行预测,是因为它与其他模型相比具有一定的优势,如只使用现有数据,在数据不完整、样本量小、样本间隙小等情况下表现良好。采用全球气候模式集成学习算法(CCSM4、Had GEM2AO和MIROC5)以获得更好的预测结果。14个稳健模型(AUC 0.864–0.892)是利用7个秃鹫种群(长喙、白臀、红头、银灰色、埃及秃鹫、喜马拉雅和欧亚狮鹫)在两个季节共1000多个地点的数据建立的。选定的气候(温度和降水)和环境变量(NDVI、海拔和土地利用/土地覆盖)被用于预测当前栖息地,未来的预测只基于气候变量。影响秃鹫栖息地分布的最重要变量是降水量(bio 15,bio 18,bio19)和温度(bio 3,bio 5)。在目前的预测中,森林和水体是影响土地利用的主要因素。在较小尺度上,随着时间的推移,极端适宜的栖息地面积减少,高度适宜的栖息地面积增加,总适宜栖息地面积在2050年略有增加,但到2070年有所减少。在更大的尺度上考虑,2050年适宜栖息地的净损失为5%,2070年为7.17%(RCP4.5)。相似的,在RCP8.5下,2050年适宜栖息地的净损失为6%,2070年为7.3%。研究结果可用于制定秃鹫的保护规划和管理,从而保护其免受未来的气候变化等威胁。     

Many a little makes a mickle: Cumulative land cover changes and traditional land use in the Kyrö reindeer herding district,northern Finland

Traditional land use systems are threatened by land use intensification and resulting land cover transitions in northern areas. This article examines cumulative land cover changes and their impacts on reindeer grazing grounds in the Kyrö reindeer herding district in northern Finland. Land cover transitions were studied using Landsat TM and OLI images and topographic maps. The results showed that the herding district has experienced notable land cover changes during the past decades, and most of these changes were directly related to forestry. The proportion of continuous coniferous forests of the total forest cover declined from 92% to 78% between 1987 and 2013. Approximately one third of the forests outside current conservation areas were disturbed by forest management by 2013, and remaining forests were notably more fragmented than forests within conservation areas. The extent of the road and path networks expanded considerably between 1960s and 2010 as a result of increasing logging and tourism. Accumulation of disturbances gradually results in loss of key resources and declined quality of the landscape mosaic from the reindeer herding perspective, which can pose a serious threat to long-term sustainability of the livelihood. Rapid land cover changes in non-protected areas highlight an increasingly important role of conservation areas in maintaining resources for reindeer husbandry in the face of intensifying land use. Sustainable management of resources outside conservation areas requires careful participatory planning and efficient cumulative impact assessment of different land use activities.     

Planning Melbourne's water supply system

The Australian water industry has now entered what has been called a ‘mature’ phase of its evolution. This is characterised by a greater emphasis on water conservation, recycling, realistic pricing and demand management, rather than on the construction of large‐scale, capital‐intensive, supply projects, as in the past. A review is presented of some recent Australian and overseas writings on this changed policy direction and specific attention is paid to the way in which the Melbourne and Metropolitan Board of Works has, in recent years, responded to the uncertain economic and political environment of the 1980s. The concepts of ‘linear’ and ‘circular’ water systems are introduced and it is argued that the planning trend towards the latter is inevitable.     

Mechanisms of late Quaternary fault throw‐rate variability along the north central Gulf of Mexico coast: implications for coastal subsidence

Quaternary sea‐level cycles have caused dramatic depocentre shifts near the mouths of major rivers. The effects of these shifts on fault activity in passive margin settings is poorly known, as no studies have constrained passive margin fault throw‐rate variability over 10³ to 10⁵ year time scales. Here we present 11 mean throw rates for the Tepetate–Baton Rouge fault zone along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast in southern Louisiana. These data were obtained by optically stimulated luminescence dating over time scales spanning the last interglacial to the late Holocene. The mean throw rate is ca. 0.22 mm year^?1 during the late Holocene, ca. 0.03 mm year^?1 during the last glacial and at least 0.07 mm year^?1 during the last interglacial. Throw rates averaged over the late Pleistocene to present are spatially uniform within our study area. The temporal variability in throw rates suggests that shifts of the Mississippi River depocentre relative to this fault zone, driven by Quaternary sea‐level cycles, may have imposed a significant control on fault activity. The late Holocene throw rate is at least in the order of magnitude smaller than the rates of land‐surface subsidence in the Mississippi Delta, indicating that this fault zone is not a dominant contributor to subsidence in this region.     

Sedimentary macrofossil records reveal ecological change in English lakes: implications for conservation

Aquatic macrophytes play a key role in providing habitat, refuge and food for a range of biota in shallow lakes. However, many shallow lakes have experienced declines in macrophyte vegetation in recent decades, principally due to eutrophication. As changes in macrophyte composition and abundance can affect overall ecological structure and function of a lake, an assessment of the timing and nature of such changes is crucial to our understanding of the wider lake ecosystem. In the typical absence of historical plant records, the macro-remains of macrophytes preserved in lake sediments can be used to assess long-term changes in aquatic vegetation. We generated recent (150–200 years) plant macrofossil records for six English lakes subject to conservation protection to define past macrophyte communities, assess trajectories of ecological change and consider the implications of our findings for conservation targets and strategies. The data for all six lakes reveal a diverse submerged macrophyte community, with charophytes as a key component, in the early part of the sedimentary records. The stratigraphies indicate considerable change to the aquatic vegetation over the last two centuries with a general shift towards species more typically associated with eutrophic conditions. A common feature is the decline in abundance of low-growing charophytes and an increase in tall canopy-forming angiosperms such as fine-leaved Potamogeton species, Zannichellia palustris and Callitriche species. We hypothesise, based on findings from long-term datasets and palaeoecological records from enriched shallow lakes where plants are now absent, that the observed shifts provide a warning to managers that the lakes are on a pathway to complete macrophyte loss such that nutrient load reduction is urgently needed. It is the sound understanding of present-day plant ecology that affords such reliable interpretation of the fossil data which, in turn, provide valuable context for current conservation decisions.     

土地利用和气候变化对区域净初级生产力的影响

应用以遥感观测数据驱动的GLO-PEM模式模拟估计的中国北方20年的NPP数据同其20年气候数据结合,同时利用通过遥感宏观调查所得的两期土地利用数据,分析20年气候和土地利用变化对区域净初级生产力 (Net Primary Productivity,NPP) 的影响的时空特征。分析结果表明,20年来研究区域年均温度显著增加 (年均增温0.064 ^oC),年降水量明显减少 (年降水减少率为1.49 mm/年),NPP以减少趋势为主 (年减少率6.9 TgC)。研究区域NPP的变化受旬 (月) 均温和旬 (月) 降水量和季节温度和季节降水的变化影响显著。季节NPP同季节降水和温度的相关性在空间上同植被覆盖表现出高度的一致性,其相关系数大小随着不同植被覆盖类型变化而变化。通过分析可见,就整个研究区来说,发生土地利用变化的区域仅占整个研究区域的5.45%, 气候对整个研究区域NPP的影响占主导地位 (占了总影响量的90%);土地利用发生区域土地利用的作用占了绝对地位,土地利用的影响占了约97%。整个研究区域近20年来因为降水明显减少,温度显著升高,导致NPP明显下降,在两期土地利用间隔时间段内 (约10年) 因气候影响NPP减少了78 (±0.6) TgC。因为土地利用的变化导致NPP减少9 (±0.2) TgC。气候和土地利用共同作用是研究区域的NPP减少87 (±0.8) TgC。