Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes: a case study in four catchments of the Haihe River basin,China

Quantitative evaluation of the effect of climate variability and human activities on runoff is of great importance for water resources planning and management in terms of maintaining the ecosystem integrity and sustaining the society development. In this paper, hydro‐climatic data from four catchments (i.e. Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment, Hutuo River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment) in the Haihe River basin from 1957 to 2000 were used to quantitatively attribute the hydrological response (i.e. runoff) to climate change and human activities separately. To separate the attributes, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and runoff during 1957–2000 were first explored by the Mann–Kendall test. Despite that only Hutuo River catchment was dominated by a significant negative trend in annual precipitation, all four catchments presented significant negative trend in annual runoff varying from ?0.859 (Chaohe River) to ?1.996 mm a^?1 (Zhanghe River). Change points in 1977 and 1979 are detected by precipitation–runoff double cumulative curves method and Pettitt's test for Zhanghe River and the other three rivers, respectively, and are adopted to divide data set into two study periods as the pre‐change period and post‐change period. Three methods including hydrological model method, hydrological sensitivity analysis method and climate elasticity method were calibrated with the hydro‐climatic data during the pre‐change period. Then, hydrological runoff response to climate variability and human activities was quantitatively evaluated with the help of the three methods and based on the assumption that climate and human activities are the only drivers for streamflow and are independent of each other. Similar estimates of anthropogenic and climatic effects on runoff for catchments considered can be obtained from the three methods. We found that human activities were the main driving factors for the decline in annual runoff in Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment, accounting for over 50% of runoff reduction. However, climate variability should be responsible for the decrease in annual runoff in the Hutuo River catchment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow decrease in a sediment concentrated region in the Middle Yellow River

The Kuye River is the primary tributary located in the sediment concentrated regions in the Middle Yellow River in China. Significant decrease in streamflow has been observed in the Kuye River. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test was applied to detect the change in annual streamflow for the period of 1960 to 2006. Mean annual streamflow in the Kuye River was 84.9 mm from 1960 to 1979 (period I), while it decreased to 58.2 mm from 1980 to 1998 (period II) and 20.5 mm from 1999 to 2006 (period III), respectively. The climate elasticity method and the hydrological modeling method were individually employed to assess the impact of climate variability and human activities on the decrease in streamflow. The results showed that climate variability was responsible for 29.6 and 27.1 % of the streamflow decrease from the climate elasticity method and the hydrological modeling method, respectively; while human activities accounted for 70.4 and 72.9 % of the streamflow decrease in period II. In period III, climate variability contributed 40.9 and 39.3 % of the streamflow decrease from the climate elasticity method and the hydrological modeling method, respectively; while human activities accounted for 59.1 and 60.7 % of the streamflow decrease. Therefore, human activities were the main reason of the streamflow decrease. Soil conservation measures (planting trees, improving pastures, building terraces and sediment-trapping dams) and coal mining led to the streamflow reduction in the Kuye River.     

Parameterizing a hydrological model using a short-term observational dataset to study runoff generation processes and reproduce recent trends in streamflow at a remote mountainous permafrost basin

Recent decades have seen a change in the runoff characteristics of the Suntar River basin in the mountainous, permafrost, hard-to-reach region of Eastern Siberia. This study aims to investigate and simulate runoff formation processes, including the factors driving recent changes in hydrological response of the Suntar River, based on short-term historical observations of a range of hydrological, climatological and landscape measurements conducted in 1957–1959. The hydrograph model is applied as it has the advantage of using observed physical properties of landscapes as its parameters. The developed parametrization of the goltsy landscape (rocky-talus) is verified by comparison of the results of simulations of variable states of snow and frozen ground with observations carried out in 1957–1959. Continuous simulations of streamflow on a daily time step are conducted for the period 1957–2012 in the Suntar River (area 7680 km², altitude 828–2794 m) with mean and median values of Nash–Sutcliff criteria reaching 0.58 and 0.67, respectively. The results of simulations have shown that the largest component of runoff (about 70%) is produced in the high-altitude area which comprises only 44% of the Suntar River basin area. The simulated streamflow reproduces the patterns of recently observed changes, including the increase in low flows, suggesting that the increase in the proportion of liquid precipitation in autumn due to air temperature rise is an important factor in driving streamflow changes in the region. The data presented are unique for the vast mountainous parts of North-Eastern Eurasia which play an important role in the global climate system. The results indicate that parameterizing a hydrological model based on observations allows the model to be used in studying the response of river basins to climate change with greater confidence.     

Climate changes and their impacts on water resources in semiarid regions: a case study of the Wei River basin,China

Understanding the impacts of climate change and human activity on the hydrological processes in river basins is important for maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining local economic development. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate variability and human activity on mean annual flow in the Wei River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and wavelet transform were applied to detect the variations of hydrometeorological variables in the semiarid Wei River basin in the northwestern China. The identifications were based on streamflow records from 1958 to 2008 at four hydrological stations as well as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data from 21 climate stations. A simple method based on Budyko curve was used to evaluate potential impacts of climate change and human activities on mean annual flow. The results show that annual streamflow decreased because of the reduced precipitation and increased PET at most stations. Both annual and seasonal precipitation and PET demonstrated mixed trends of decreasing and increasing, although significant trends (P < 0.05) were consistently detected in spring and autumn at most stations. Significant periodicities of 0.5 and 1 year (P < 0.05) were examined in all the time series. The spectrum of streamflow at the Huaxian station shows insignificant annual cycle during 1971–1975, 1986–1993 and 1996–2008, which is probably resulted from human activities. Climate variability greatly affected water resources in the Beiluo River, whereas human activities (including soil and water conservation, irrigation, reservoirs construction, etc.) accounted more for the changes of streamflow in the area near the Huaxian station during different periods. The results from this article can be used as a reference for water resources planning and management in the semiarid Wei River basin. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatio-temporal patterns of hydrological processes and their responses to human activities in the Poyang Lake basin,China

Abstract

Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China, and plays a major role in flood mitigation, restoration and conservation of the ecological environment in the middle Yangtze River basin. Sediment load and streamflow variations in Poyang Lake basin are important for the scouring and deposition changes of this lake. However, these hydrological processes are heavily influenced by human activities, such as construction of water reservoirs, and land-use/land cover changes. By thorough analysis of long series of sediment and streamflow obtained from five major hydrological stations, we systematically investigated the spatial and temporal patterns of these hydrological processes and the hydrological responses to human activities using the Mann-Kendall trend test, the double cumulative mass curve and the linear regression method. The results show: (1) no significant change in streamflow followed by an increasing tendency after the 1990s that turns to be decreasing about 2000; and (2) a sharp increase of sediment load during the late 1960s and 1970s triggered by extensive deforestation (during the “Cultural Revolution” in China) followed by a tendency to decrease after the early 1980s. Construction of water reservoirs has greatly reduced the sediment load of the Poyang Lake basin, and this is particularly the case in the Ganjiang River, where the sediment load changes may be attributed to the trapping effects of the Wan'an Reservoir, the largest water reservoir within the Poyang Lake basin. There is no evidence to corroborate the influence of water reservoirs on the streamflow variations. It seems that the streamflow variations are subject mainly to precipitation changes, but this requires further analysis. The current study may be of scientific and practical benefit in the conservation and restoration of Poyang Lake, as a kind of wetland, and also in flood mitigation in the middle Yangtze River basin that is under the influence of human activities.

Citation Zhang, Q., Sun, P., Jiang, T. & Chen, X.-H. (2011) Spatio-temporal patterns of hydrological processes and their hydrological responses to human activities in the Poyang Lake basin, China. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(2), 305–318.     

Evaluation of impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow in the Poyang Lake basin,China

Variations in streamflows of five tributaries of the Poyang Lake basin, China, because of the influence of human activities and climate change were evaluated using the Australia Water Balance Model and multivariate regression. Results indicated that multiple regression models were appropriate with precipitation, potential evapotranspiration of the current month, and precipitation of the last month as explanatory variables. The NASH coefficient for the Australia Water Balance Model was larger than 0.842, indicating satisfactory simulation of streamflow of the Poyang Lake basin. Comparison indicated that the sensitivity method could not exclude the benchmark‐period human influence, and the human influence on streamflow changes was overestimated. Generally, contributions of human activities and climate change to streamflow changes were 73.2% and 26.8% respectively. However, human‐induced and climate‐induced influences on streamflow were different in different river basins. Specifically, climate change was found to be the major driving factor for the increase of streamflow within the Rao, Xin, and Gan River basins; however, human activity was the principal driving factor for the increase of streamflow of the Xiu River basin and also for the decrease of streamflow of the Fu River basin. Meanwhile, impacts of human activities and climate change on streamflow variations were distinctly different at different temporal scales. At the annual time scale, the increase of streamflow was largely because of climate change and human activities during the 1970s–1990s and the decrease of streamflow during the 2000s. At the seasonal scale, climate change was the main factor behind the increase of streamflow in the spring and summer season. Human activities increase the streamflow in autumn and winter, but decrease the streamflow in spring. At the monthly scale, different influences of climate change and human activities were detected. Climate change was the main factor behind the decrease of streamflow during May to June and human activities behind the decrease of streamflow during February to May. Results of this study can provide a theoretical basis for basin‐scale water resources management under the influence of climate change and human activities. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域径流过程影响的定量分析

量化气候变化和人类活动对流域水文影响及其对流域水资源规划和管理具有重要的理论与现实意义.采用水文模型和多元回归法定量分析气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖"五河"径流的影响,并通过与灵敏度分析法对比来进一步验证分析结果 .研究表明,1970-2009年,气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域径流增加的贡献率分别为73%和27%.气候变化是饶河、信江和赣江径流增加的主导因素,而人类活动是修水径流增加的主要因素,是抚河径流减少的主要原因.另外,不同季节影响径流变化的主导因素又有不同,人类活动为干季(11月到次年2月)径流增加和湿季(4-6月)径流减小的主导因素,其贡献率分别为78.9%和82.7%.本研究可为鄱阳湖流域防洪抗旱及水资源优化配置提供重要科学依据.     

Analysis of dam-induced cyclic patterns on river flow dynamics

This paper investigates the impact of the Hungry Horse Dam on streamflow dynamics in the South Fork of the Flathead River, Montana, USA. To this end, pre- and post-dam periods of raw and naturalized streamflow data were analysed. Pettitt’s change point analysis indicated a significant change point in streamflow dynamics due to dam construction. Complexities in the pre- and post-dam periods were evaluated by sample and multi-scale entropy analyses, and the entropies of the post-dam period were found to be higher than those of the pre-dam period. Possible reasons for this, unrelated to the natural hydrological cycle caused by the dam, were analysed using wavelet analyses. The wavelet analyses showed a clear change in the phase relationship between precipitation and streamflow. Finally, weak positive trends found in the hydrological variables indicated the effects of human activities (e.g. dam construction). The results also revealed distorted lead times, which can improve the streamflow forecasts for different lead times.     

Changes in the long-term hydrological regimes and the impacts of human activities in the main Wei River,China

ABSTRACT

Under the combined influence of climate changes and human activities, the hydrological regime of the Wei River shows remarkable variations which have caused many issues in the Wei River in recent decades, such as a lack of freshwater, water pollution, disastrous flooding and channel sedimentation. Hence, hydrological regime changes and potential human-induced impacts have been drawing increasing attention from local government and hydrologists. This study investigates hydrological regime changes in the natural and measured runoff series at four hydrological stations on the main Wei River and quantifies features of their long-term change by analysing their historical annual and seasonal runoff data using several approaches, i.e., continuous wavelet transform, cross-wavelet, wavelet coherence, trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall test and detrended fluctuation analysis. By contrasting two different analysis results between natural and measured river runoff series, the impacts of human activities on the long-term hydrological regime were investigated via the changes of spatio-temporal distribution in dominant periods, the trends and long-range memory of river runoff. The results show : (a) that periodic properties of the streamflow changes are the result of climate, referring to precipitation changes in particular, while human activities play a minor role; (b) a significant decreasing trend can be observed in the natural streamflow series along the entire main stream of the Wei River and the more serious decrease emerging in measured flow should result from human-induced influences in recent decades; and (c) continuous decreasing streamflow in the Wei River will trigger serious shortages of freshwater in the future, which may challenge the sustainability and safety of water resources development in the river basin, and should be paid great attention before 2020.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Hamed     

Wavelet-based characterization of water level behaviors in the Pearl River estuary, China

In this paper, we analyzed the high/low water levels of eight stations along the Pearl River estuary and the high/low tidal levels of Sanzao station, and streamflow series of Sanshui and Makou stations using wavelet transform technique and correlation analysis method. The behaviors of high/low water levels of the Pearl River estuary, possible impacts of hydrological processes of the upper Pearl River Delta and astronomical tidal fluctuations were investigated. The results indicate that: (1) the streamflow variability of Sanshui and Makou stations is characterized by 1-year period; 1-, 0.5- and 0.25-year periods can be detected in the high tidal level series of Sanzao station, which reflect the fluctuations of astronomical tidal levels. The low tidal level series of Sanzao station has two periodicity elements, i.e. 0.5- and 0.25-year periods; (2) different periodicity properties have been revealed: the periods of high water levels of the Pearl River estuary are characterized by 1-, 0.5- and 0.25-year periods; and 1-year period is the major period in the low water levels of the Pearl River estuary; (3) periodicity properties indicate that behaviors of low water levels are mainly influenced by hydrological processes of the upper Pearl River Delta. High water levels of the Pearl River estuary seem to be affected by both hydrological processes and fluctuations of astronomical tidal levels represented by tidal level changes of Sanzao station. Correlation analysis results further corroborate this conclusion; (4) slight differences can be observed in wavelet transform patterns and properties of relationships between high/low water levels and streamflow changes. This can be formulated by altered hydrodynamic and morphodynamic processes due to intensifying human activities such as construction of engineering infrastructures and land reclamation.     

Assessment of hydrological extremes in the Kamo River Basin,Japan

A suite of extreme indices derived from daily precipitation and streamflow was analysed to assess changes in the hydrological extremes from 1951 to 2012 in the Kamo River Basin. The evaluated indices included annual maximum 1-day and 5-day precipitation (RX1day, RX5day), consecutive dry days (CDD), annual maximum 1-day and 5-day streamflow (SX1day, SX5day), and consecutive low-flow days (CDS). Sen’s slope estimator and two versions of the Mann-Kendall test were used to detect trends in the indices. Also, frequency distributions of the indices were analysed separately for two periods: 1951–1981 and 1982–2012. The results indicate that quantiles of the rainfall indices corresponding to the 100-year return period have decreased in recent years, and the streamflow indices had similar patterns. Although consecutive no rainfall days represented by 100-year CDD decreased, continuous low-flow days represented by 100-year CDS increased. This pattern change is likely associated with the increase in temperature during this period.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR E. Gargouri     

Multiscale variability of streamflow changes in the Pearl River basin,China

The Pearl River basin bears the heavy responsibility for the water supply for the neighboring cities such as Macau, Hong Kong and others. Therefore, effective water resource management is crucial for sustainable use of water resource. However, good knowledge of changing properties of streamflow changes is the first step into the effective water resource management. With this in mind, stability and variability of streamflow changes in the Pearl River basin is thoroughly analyzed based on monthly streamflow data covering last half century using Mann–Kendall trend test and scanning t- and F-test techniques. The results indicate: (1) significant increasing monthly streamflow is observed mainly in January–April, June and October–December. Monthly streamflow during May–September is in not significant changes. Besides, stations characterized by significant monthly streamflow changes are located in the middle and the lower Pearl River basin; (2) changing points of monthly streamflow series are detected mainly during mid-1960s, early 1970s, mid-1970s, early 1980s and early 1990s and these periods are roughly in good agreement with those of annual, winter and summer precipitation across the Pearl River basin, implying tremendous influences of precipitation changes on streamflow variations; (3) abrupt behaviors tend to be ambiguous from the upper to the lower Pearl River basin, which should be due to enhancing combined effects of abrupt changes of precipitation. The streamflow comes to be lower stability in recent decades. However, high stability of streamflow changes are observed at hydrological stations in the lower Pearl River basin. The results of this study will be of great scientific and practical merits in terms of effective water resource management in the Pearl River basin under the influences of climate changes and human activities.     

Flood frequency under the influence of trends in the Pearl River basin,China: changing patterns,causes and implications

Using a nonstationary flood frequency model, this study investigates the impact of trends on the estimation of flood frequencies and flood magnification factors. Analysis of annual peak streamflow data from 28 hydrological stations across the Pearl River basin, China, shows that: (1) northeast parts of the West and the North River basins are dominated by increasing annual peak streamflow, whereas decreasing trends of annual peak streamflow are prevailing in other regions of the Pearl River basin; (2) trends significantly impact the estimation of flood frequencies. The changing frequency of the same flood magnitude is related to the changing magnitude or significance/insignificance of trends, larger increasing frequency can be detected for stations with significant increasing trends of annual peak streamflow and vice versa, and smaller increasing magnitude for stations with not significant increasing annual peak streamflow, pointing to the critical impact of trends on estimation of flood frequencies; (3) larger‐than‐1 flood magnification factors are observed mainly in the northeast parts of the West River basin and in the North River basin, implying magnifying flood processes in these regions and a higher flood risk in comparison with design flood‐control standards; and (4) changes in hydrological extremes result from the integrated influence of human activities and climate change. Generally, magnifying flood regimes in the northeast Pearl River basin and in the North River basin are mainly the result of intensifying precipitation regime; smaller‐than‐1 flood magnification factors along the mainstream of the West River basin and also in the East River basin are the result of hydrological regulations of water reservoirs. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of streamflow series of the Yangtze River basin,China

Scaling and multifractal properties of the hydrological processes of the Yangtze River basin were explored by using a multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF‐DFA) technique. Long daily mean streamflow series from Cuntan, Yichang, Hankou and Datong stations were analyzed. Using shuffled streamflow series, the types of multifractality of streamflow series was also studied. The results indicate that the discharge series of the Yangtze River basin are non‐stationary. Different correlation properties were identified within streamflow series of the upper, the middle and the lower Yangtze River basin. The discharge series of the upper Yangtze River basin are characterized by short memory or anti‐persistence; while the streamflow series of the lower Yangtze River basin is characterized by long memory or persistence. h(q) vs q curves indicate multifractality of the hydrological processes of the Yangtze River basin. h(q) curves of shuffled streamflow series suggest that the multifractality of the streamflow series is mainly due to the correlation properties within the hydrological series. This study may be of practical and scientific importance in regional flood frequency analysis and water resource management in different parts of the Yangtze River basin. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trend,periodicity and abrupt change in streamflow of the East River,the Pearl River basin

The East River in the Pearl River basin, China, plays a vital role in the water supply for mega‐cities within and in the vicinity of the Pearl River Delta. Knowledge of statistical variability of streamflow is therefore important for water resources management in the basin. This study analyzed streamflow from four hydrological stations on the East River for a period of 1951–2009, using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), continuous wavelet transform (CWT) technique, scanning t and F tests. Results indicated increasing/decreasing streamflow in the East River basin before/after the 1980s. After the early 1970s, the high/low flow components were decreasing/increasing. CWT‐based analysis demonstrates a significant impact of water reservoirs on the periodicity of streamflow. Scanning t and F test indicates that significantly abrupt changes in streamflow are largely influenced by both water reservoirs construction and precipitation changes. Thus, changes of streamflow, which are reflected by variations of trend, periodicity and abrupt change, are due to both water reservoir construction and precipitation changes. Further, the changes of volume of streamflow in the East River are in good agreement with precipitation changes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Physically based simulation of the streamflow decrease caused by sediment‐trapping dams in the middle Yellow River

As a result of climate change/variation and its aggravation by human activities over the past several decades, the hydrological conditions in the middle Yellow River in China have dramatically changed, which has led to a sharp decrease of streamflow and the drying up of certain tributaries. This paper simulated and analysed the impact of sediment‐trapping dams (STDs, a type of large‐sized check dam used to prevent sediment from entering the Yellow River main stem) on hydrological processes, and the study area was located in the 3246 km² Huangfuchuan River basin. Changes in the hydrological processes were analysed, and periods of natural and disturbed states were defined. Subsequently, the number and distribution of the STDs were determined based on data collected from statistical reports and identified from remote sensing images, and the topological relationships between the STDs and high‐resolution river reaches were established. A hydrological model, the digital Yellow River integrated model, was used to simulate the STD impact on the hydrological processes, and the maximum STD impact was evaluated through a comparison between the simulation results with and without the STDs, which revealed that the interception effect of the STDs contributed to the decrease of the streamflow by approximately 39%. This paper also analysed the relationship between the spatial distribution of the STDs and rainfall in the Huangfuchuan River basin and revealed that future soil and water conservation measures should focus on areas with a higher average annual rainfall and higher number of rainstorm hours. © 2015 The Authors Hydrological Processes Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

The impact of climate change and human activities on streamflow and sediment load in the Pearl River basin

This paper uses monthly streamflow, suspended sediment concentration, and meteorological data to examine the impact of human activity and climate change on streamflow and sediment load in the Pearl River basin from the 1950s to the 2000s. The influences of climate change and human activities on hydrological processes were quantitatively evaluated using the Mann–Kendall abrupt change test and power rating curves. The results showed that:(1) abrupt changes and turning points in streamflow occurred in 1963, 1983, and 1991 which were found to be consistent with global ENSO events and volcanic eruptions. However, abrupt changes in sediment load showed significant spatial differences across the Pearl River basin. For the Xijiang River, an abrupt change in sediment load occurred in 2002, and after 2007 the change becomes significant at the 95% confidence level. At Beijiang and Dongjiang, abrupt changes in sediment load occurred in 1998 and 1988, respectively.(2) The time series of sediment load data was divided into four periods according to abrupt changes. The contribution of climate change and human activities is different in the different rivers. For the Xijiang River, compared with the first period, climate change and human activities contributed 83% and 17%, respectively, to the increasing sediment load during the second period. In the third period, the variation of sediment load followed a decreasing trend. The contribution from climate change and human activities also changed to t236% and -136%, respectively. In the fourth period, climate change and human activities contributed -32% and t132%, respectively. Meanwhile, For the Beijiang River, climate change and human activities contributed 90% and 10% in the second period, the contribution of climate change increased to t115% and human activities decreased to -15% in the third period. In the fourth period, the value for climate change decreased to t36% and human activities increased to t64%. For the Dongjiang River, the contribution of human activities was from 74.5% to 90%, and the values for climate change were from 11% to 25%. Therefore, the effect of human activity showed both spatial and temporal differences, and it seems likely that the decreased sediment load will continue to be controlled mainly by human activities in the future.     

Trends and shifts in streamflow in Hawai‘i, 1913–2008

This study addresses a need to document changes in streamflow and base flow (groundwater discharge to streams) in Hawai‘i during the past century. Statistically significant long‐term (1913–2008) downward trends were detected (using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test) in low‐streamflow and base‐flow records. These long‐term downward trends are likely related to a statistically significant downward shift around 1943 detected (using the nonparametric Pettitt test) in index records of streamflow and base flow. The downward shift corresponds to a decrease of 22% in median streamflow and a decrease of 23% in median base flow between the periods 1913–1943 and 1943–2008. The shift coincides with other local and regional factors, including a change from a positive to a negative phase in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, shifts in the direction of the trade winds over Hawai‘i, and a reforestation programme. The detected shift and long‐term trends reflect region‐wide changes in climatic and land‐cover factors. A weak pattern of downward trends in base flows during the period 1943–2008 may indicate a continued decrease in base flows after the 1943 shift. Downward trends were detected more commonly in base‐flow records than in high‐streamflow, peak‐flow, and rainfall records. The decrease in base flow is likely related to a decrease in groundwater storage and recharge and therefore is a valuable indicator of decreasing water availability and watershed vulnerability to hydrologic changes. Whether the downward trends will continue is largely uncertain given the uncertainty in climate‐change projections and watershed responses to changes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of antecedent conditions on simulations of a flood in a mountain headwater basin

A devastating flood struck Southern Alberta in late June 2013, with much of its streamflow generation in the Front Ranges of the Rocky Mountains, west of Calgary. To better understand streamflow generation processes and their sensitivity to initial conditions, a physically based hydrological model was developed using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) to simulate the flood for the Marmot Creek Research Basin (~9.4 km²). The modular model includes major cold and warm season hydrological processes including snow redistribution, sublimation, melt, runoff over frozen and unfrozen soils, evapotranspiration, subsurface runoff on hillslopes, groundwater recharge and discharge and streamflow routing. Uncalibrated simulations were conducted for eight hydrological years and generally matched streamflow observations well, with a NRMSD of 52%, small model bias (?3%) and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.71. The model was then used to diagnose the responses of hydrological processes in 2013 flood from different ecozones in Marmot Creek: alpine, treeline, montane forest and large and small forest clearings to better understand spatial variations in the flood runoff generation mechanisms. To examine the sensitivity to antecedent conditions, ‘virtual’ flood simulations were conducted using a week (17 to 24 June 2013) of flood meteorology imposed on the meteorology of the same period in other years (2005 to 2012), or switched with the meteorology of one week in different months (May to July) of 2013. Sensitivity to changing precipitation and land cover was assessed by varying the precipitation amount during the flood and forest cover and soil storage capacity in forest ecozone. The results show that runoff efficiency increases rapidly with antecedent snowpack and soil moisture storage with the highest runoff response to rainfall from locations in the basin where there are recently melted or actively melting snowpacks and resulting high soil moisture or frozen soils. The impact of forest canopy on flooding is negligible, but flood peak doubles if forest canopy removal is accompanied by 50% reduction in water storage capacity in the basin. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling hydrological processes influenced by soil,rock and vegetation in a small karst basin of southwest China

Hydrological processes in karst basins are controlled by permeable multimedia, consisting of soil pores, epikarst fractures, and underground conduits. Distributed modelling of hydrological dynamics in such heterogeneous hydrogeological conditions is a challenging task. Basing on the multilayer structure of the distributed hydrology‐soil‐vegetation model (DHSVM), a distributed hydrological model for a karst basin was developed by integrating mathematical routings of porous Darcy flow, fissure flow and underground channel flow. Specifically, infiltration and saturated flow movement within epikarst fractures are expressed by the ‘cubic law’ equation which is associated with fractural width, direction, and spacing. A small karst basin located in Guizhou province of southwest China was selected for this hydrological simulation. The model parameters were determined on the basis of field measurement and calibrated against the observed soil moisture contents, vegetation interception, surface runoff, and underground flow discharges from the basin outlet. The results show that due to high permeability of the epikarst zone, a significant amount of surface runoff is only generated after heavy rainfall events during the wet season. Rock exposure and the epikarst zone significantly increase flood discharge and decrease evapotranspiration (ET) loss; the peak flood discharge is directly proportional to the size of the aperture. Distribution of soil moisture content (SMC) primarily depends on topographic variations just after a heavy rainfall, while SMC and actual ET are dominated by land cover after a period of consecutive non‐rainfall days. The new model was able to capture the sharp increase and decrease of the underground streamflow hydrograph, and as such can be used to investigate hydrological effects in such rock features and land covers. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.