A solar super‐flare as cause for the 14C variation in AD 774/5?

We present further considerations regarding the strong ¹⁴C variation in AD 774/5. For its cause, either a solar super‐flare or a short gamma‐ray burst were suggested. We show that all kinds of stellar or neutron star flares would be too weak for the observed energy input at Earth in AD 774/5. Even though Maehara et al. (2012) present two super‐flares with ∼10³⁵ erg of presumably solar‐type stars, we would like to caution: These two stars are poorly studied and may well be close binaries, and/or having a M‐type dwarf companion, and/or may be much younger and/or much more magnetic than the Sun – in any such case, they might not be true solar analog stars. From the frequency of large stellar flares averaged over all stellar activity phases (maybe obtained only during grand activity maxima), one can derive (a limit of) the probability for a large solar flare at a random time of normal activity: We find the probability for one flare within 3000 years to be possibly as low as 0.3 to 0.008 considering the full 1σ error range. Given the energy estimate in Miyake et al. (2012) for the AD 774/5 event, it would need to be ∼2000 stronger than the Carrington event as solar super‐flare. If the AD 774/5 event as solar flare would be beamed (to an angle of only ∼24°), 100 times lower energy would be needed. A new AD 774/5 energy estimate by Usoskin et al. (2013) with a different carbon cycle model, yielding 4 ot 6 time lower ¹⁴C production, predicts 4–6 times less energy. If both reductions are applied, the AD 774/5 event would need to be only ∼4 times stronger than the Carrington event in 1859 (if both had similar spectra). However, neither ¹⁴C nor ¹⁰Be peaks were found around AD 1859. Hence, the AD 774/5 event (as solar flare) either was not beamed that strongly, and/or it would have been much more than 4‐6 times stronger than Carrington, and/or the lower energy estimate (Usoskin et al. 2013) is not correct, and/or such solar flares cannot form (enough) ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be. The 1956 solar energetic particle event was followed by a small decrease in directly observed cosmic rays. We conclude that large solar super‐flares remain very unlikely as the cause for the ¹⁴C increase in AD 774/5. (© 2014 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Modeling a Maunder minimum

We introduce on/off intermittency into a mean field dynamo model by imposing stochastic fluctuations in either the alpha effect or through the inclusion of a fluctuating electromotive force. Sufficiently strong small scale fluctuations with time scales of the order of 0.3–3 years can produce long term variations in the system on time scales of the order of hundreds of years. However, global suppression of magnetic activity in both hemispheres at once was not observed. The variation of the magnetic field does not resemble that of the sunspot number, but is more reminiscent of the ¹⁰Be record. The interpretation of our results focuses attention on the connection between the level of magnetic activity and the sunspot number, an issue that must be elucidated if long term solar effects are to be well understood. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

A Phenomenological Study of the Cosmic Ray Variations over the Past 9400 Years, and Their Implications Regarding Solar Activity and the Solar Dynamo

Two 9400-year long ¹⁰Be data records from the Arctic and Antarctic and a ¹⁴C record of equal length were used to investigate the periodicities in the cosmic radiation incident on Earth throughout the past 9400 years. Fifteen significant periodicities between 40 and 2320 years are observed in the ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C records, there being close agreement between the periodicities in each record. We found that the periodic variations in the galactic cosmic radiation are the primary cause for periods <?250 years, with minor contributions of terrestrial origin possible >?250 years. The spectral line for the Gleissberg (87-year) periodicity is narrow, indicating a stability of ≈?0.5 %. The 9400-year record contains 26 Grand Minima (GM) similar to the Maunder Minimum, most of which occurred as sequences of 2?–?7 GM with intervals of 800?–?1200 years in between, in which there were no GM. The intervals between the GM sequences are characterised by high values of the modulation function. Periodicities <?150 years are observed in both the GM intervals and the intervals in between. The longer-period variations such as the de Vries (208-year) cycle have high amplitudes during the GM sequences and are undetectable in between. There are three harmonically related pairs of periodicities (65 and 130 years), (75 and 150 years), and (104 and 208 years). The long periodicities at 350, 510, and 708 years closely approximate 4, 6, and 8 times the Gleissberg period (87 years). The well-established properties of cosmic-ray modulation theory and the known dependence of the heliospheric magnetic field on the solar magnetic fields lead us to speculate that the periodicities evident in the paleo-cosmic-ray record are also present in the solar magnetic fields and in the solar dynamo. The stable, narrow natures of the Gleissberg and other periodicities suggest that there is a strong “frequency control” in the solar dynamo, in strong contrast to the variable nature (8?–?15 years) of the Schwabe (11-year) solar cycle.     

Beryllium‐boron and aluminum‐magnesium chronology of calcium‐aluminum‐rich inclusions in CV chondrites

Abstract— We have made Be‐B measurements in six calcium‐aluminum‐rich inclusions (CAIs) (mostly type B inclusions) from CV chondrites and compared them to Al‐Mg measurements. All CAIs show ¹⁰B excesses in melilite that are correlated with Be/B ratios. The initial ¹⁰Be/⁹Be ratio inferred from the correlation line is 6.2 times 10^?4. In contrast to the Be‐B system in melilite, the Al‐Mg system in anorthite is disturbed. This is probably due to B diffusion in melilite being slow compared with Mg diffusion in anorthite. This suggests that Be‐B chronology may be useful for measuring time differences of high‐temperature (melting, condensation, etc.) events in the early solar system.     

Reconstruction of Subdecadal Changes in Sunspot Numbers Based on the NGRIP 10Be Record

Sunspot observations since 1610 A.D. show that the solar magnetic activity displays long-term changes, from Maunder Minimum-like low-activity states to Modern Maximum-like high-activity episodes, as well as short-term variations, such as the pronounced 11-year periodicity. Information on changes in solar activity levels before 1610 relies on proxy records of solar activity stored in natural archives, such as ¹⁰Be in ice cores and ¹⁴C in tree rings. These cosmogenic radionuclides are produced by the interaction between Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and atoms in the Earth’s atmosphere; their production rates are anti-correlated with the solar magnetic activity. The GCR intensity displays a distinct 11-year periodicity due to solar modulation of the GCRs in the heliosphere, which is inversely proportional to, but out of phase with, the 11-year solar cycle. This implies a time lag between the actual solar cycles and the GCR intensity, which is known as the hysteresis effect. In this study, we use the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) records of the ¹⁰Be flux to reconstruct the solar modulation strength (Φ), which describes the modulation of GCRs throughout the heliosphere, to reconstruct both long-term and subdecadal changes in sunspot numbers (SSNs). We compare three different approaches for reconstructing subdecadal-scale changes in SSNs, including a linear approach and two approaches based on the hysteresis effect, i.e. models with ellipse–linear and ellipse relationships between Φ and SSNs. We find that the ellipse approach provides an amplitude-sensitive reconstruction and the highest cross-correlation coefficients in comparison with the ellipse–linear and linear approaches. The long-term trend in the reconstructed SSNs is computed using a physics-based model and agrees well with the other group SSN reconstructions. The new empirical approach, combining a physics-based model with ellipse-modeling of the 11-year cycle, therefore provides a method for reconstructing SSNs during individual solar cycles based on ¹⁰Be in ice cores. This, in turn, represents a new window for studying short-term changes in solar activity on unprecedented timescales, which may help improve our understanding of the solar dynamo.     

Influence of solar activity on the state of the wheat market in medieval England

The database of professor Rogers (1887), which includes wheat prices in England in the Middle Ages, was used to search for a possible influence of solar activity on the wheat market. Our approach was based on the following: (1) Existence of the correlation between cosmic ray flux entering the terrestrial atmosphere and cloudiness of the atmosphere. (2) Cosmic ray intensity in the solar system changes with solar activity, (3) Wheat production depends on weather conditions as a nonlinear function with threshold transitions. (4) A wheat market with a limited supply (as it was in medieval England) has a highly nonlinear sensitivity to variations in wheat production with boundary states, where small changes in wheat supply could lead to bursts of prices or to prices falling. We present a conceptual model of possible modes for sensitivity of wheat prices to weather conditions, caused by solar cycle variations, and compare expected price fluctuations with price variations recorded in medieval England. We compared statistical properties of the intervals between wheat price bursts during the years 1249-1703 with statistical properties of the intervals between the minima of solar cycles during the years 1700-2000. We show that statistical properties of these two samples are similar, both for characteristics of the distributions and for histograms of the distributions. We analyze a direct link between wheat prices and solar activity in the 17^th century, for which wheat prices and solar activity data (derived from ¹⁰Be isotope) are available. We show that for all 10 time moments of the solar activity minima the observed prices were higher than prices for the corresponding time moments of maximal solar activity (100% sign correlation, on a significance level < 0.2%). We consider these results a direct evidence of the causal connection between wheat prices bursts and solar activity.     

Influence of solar activity on the state of the wheat market in medieval England

The database of professor Rogers (1887), which includes wheat prices in England in the Middle Ages, was used to search for a possible influence of solar activity on the wheat market. Our approach was based on the following: (1) Existence of the correlation between cosmic ray flux entering the terrestrial atmosphere and cloudiness of the atmosphere. (2) Cosmic ray intensity in the solar system changes with solar activity, (3) Wheat production depends on weather conditions as a nonlinear function with threshold transitions. (4) A wheat market with a limited supply (as it was in medieval England) has a highly nonlinear sensitivity to variations in wheat production with boundary states, where small changes in wheat supply could lead to bursts of prices or to prices falling. We present a conceptual model of possible modes for sensitivity of wheat prices to weather conditions, caused by solar cycle variations, and compare expected price fluctuations with price variations recorded in medieval England. We compared statistical properties of the intervals between wheat price bursts during the years 1249-1703 with statistical properties of the intervals between the minima of solar cycles during the years 1700-2000. We show that statistical properties of these two samples are similar, both for characteristics of the distributions and for histograms of the distributions. We analyze a direct link between wheat prices and solar activity in the 17^th century, for which wheat prices and solar activity data (derived from ¹⁰Be isotope) are available. We show that for all 10 time moments of the solar activity minima the observed prices were higher than prices for the corresponding time moments of maximal solar activity (100% sign correlation, on a significance level < 0.2%). We consider these results a direct evidence of the causal connection between wheat prices bursts and solar activity.     

Irradiation phenomena in young solar-type stars and the early solar system: X-ray observations and γ-ray constraints

The high levels of X-ray flaring activity observed in young stars and protostars suggest correspondingly high levels of low-energy particle irradiation of their circumstellar disks, and hence of early solar system material like meteorites. We first briefly review the latest X-ray observational results obtained by Chandra and XMM-Newton on two ‘typical’ star-forming regions, Orion and ρ Ophiuchi. We then discuss a new ‘accretion–ejection–irradiation–transport’ model for young stars which, when scaled to the X-ray fluxes, accounts simultaneously for four extinct radioactivity ratios, in particular the purely spallogenic ¹⁰Be/⁹Be ratio, and the ²⁶Al/²⁷Al ratio. We point out the importance of the environment in which nearby star formation is taking place today, namely the Gould Belt, and the possible connection between Comptel detections of ²⁶Al γ-ray line emission from these regions, and new constraints on the origin of the solar system.     

Solar Activity in the Past: From Different Proxies to Combined Reconstruction

Using proxy series that includes ancient observations of sunspots and auroras, concentrations of cosmogenic isotopes ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be, we reconstruct sunspot activity level since 850 AD to the present. As a main reference index of solar activity we use the Wolf sunspot numbers, which, as we demonstrate, reflect true levels of the activity in the 18th and 19th centuries better than the Group sunspot numbers. We construct a set of linear and nonlinear inductive models, which are in a good agreement with each other and reproduce the known global solar activity extrema. According to our results, amplitudes of the global maxima are in intermediate positions in respect to estimations of other authors. It follows from our reconstructions that the global maximum of the 20th century is not much higher, if at all, than others.     

Nitrate in Polar Ice: A New Tracer of Solar Variability

Knowledge of the long-term variability of solar activity is of both astrophysical and geoscientific interest. Reconstructions of solar activity over multiple millennia are traditionally based on cosmogenic isotopes ¹⁴C or ¹⁰Be measured in natural terrestrial archives, but the two isotopes exhibit significant differences on millennial time scales, so that our knowledge of solar activity at this time scale remains somewhat uncertain. Here we present a new potential proxy of solar activity on the centennial-millennial time scale, based on a chemical tracer, viz. nitrate content in an ice core drilled at Talos Dome (Antarctica). We argue that this location is optimal for preserving the solar signal in the nitrate content during the Holocene. By using the firn core from the same location we show that the 11-year and Gleissberg cycles are present with the variability of 10??C?25?% in nitrate content in the pre-industrial epoch. This is consistent with the results of independent efforts of modeling HNO₃ and NO _y in Antarctic near surface air. However, meteorological noise on the interannual scale makes it impossible to resolve individual solar cycles. Based on different processes of formation and transport compared to cosmogenic isotopes, it provides new, independent insight into long-term solar activity and helps resolve the uncertainties related to cosmogenic isotopes as diagnostics of solar activity.     

Boron in chondrules

Abstract— Isotopic compositions and abundances of boron were measured in sixteen chondrules from seven chondrites by ion microprobe mass spectrometry. The chondrules are of the porphyritic, barred, and radial type and host meteorites include carbonaceous, ordinary, and enstatite chondrites. Boron abundances are generally low with average boron concentrations of between 80 and 500 ppb. These abundances are lower than those of bulk chondrites (0.35 to 1.2 ppm; Zhai et al., 1996), confirming earlier suggestions that boron is mostly contained in the matrix. No significant variation in the ¹¹B/¹⁰B ratio is observed among these chondrules, outside our experimental error limits of several permil, and B‐isotopic compositions agree with those reported for bulk chondrites. The lack of a significant isotope fractionation between chondrules and matrix implies that the low boron abundances are not the result of a Rayleigh fractionation during chondrule formation. Isotopic heterogeneities within individual chondrules are constrained to be < ±20%0 at > 95% confidence level at a spatial scale of 20–30 μm, significantly lower than the value of about ±40%0 previously reported for chondrules from carbonaceous and ordinary chondrites (Chaussidon and Robert, 1995, 1998). The observed B‐isotopic homogeneity does not conflict with the presence of decay products from extinct ¹⁰Be, with (¹⁰Be/⁹Be)₀ ? 10^?3, as was inferred for calcium‐aluminum‐rich inclusions. Extinct ¹⁰Be in chondrules would shift the abundance ratio ¹¹B/¹⁰B at best by several permil because of their commonly observed low Be/B ratios (<2). The results show that potential B‐isotopic heterogeneities in the solar nebula due to the presence of components with different B‐isotopic signatures, such as boron produced by high‐energy galactic cosmic rays (¹¹B/¹⁰B ? 2.5), or by the hypothetical low‐energy particle irradiation (¹¹B/¹⁰B ? 3.5–11) or boron from type II supernovae (¹¹B/¹⁰B >> 1), did not survive the chondrule formation processes to a measurable extent.     

Solar Activity during the Maunder Minimum: Comparison with the Dalton Minimum

The solar modulation potential has been reconstructed from data on the ¹⁰Be concentration in south and central Greenland ice over more than 500 last years. These two reconstructions, along with fourteen others obtained by various authors from data on the cosmogenic isotopes ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be, have been investigated in the time interval 1630–1840 encompassing the Maunder and Dalton minima. The information contained in these sixteen paleoreconstructions has been generalized. The available data on the concentration of cosmogenic isotopes in terrestrial archives suggest that the solar activity in the first part of theMaunder minimum (1645–1680) was lower than that at the Dalton minimum (1792–1827), while in the second part (1680–1715) it was considerably lower. At the same time, at the beginning of theMaunder minimum (1645–1660) the solar activity could reach levels exceeding noticeably the estimates based on telescopic observations. Possible causes of these discrepancies and the directions of further research are discussed.     

Long-Term Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere by Curvature of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field

Long-term changes of the GCR intensity in the heliosphere were analysed making use of records of cosmogenic isotopes abundances (¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C) in natural archives and neutron monitor data. These data contain information about short-term, 11-year, 22-year, centennial and two-centennial cycles of solar activity. A mechanism to explain the long-term modulation of GCR due to changes in the curvature of the interplanetary magnetic field, resulting from changes in solar activity, is suggested.     

The Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM): Science Results

The solar observations from the Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) are discussed since the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) launch in January 2003. The TIM measurements clearly show the background disk-integrated solar oscillations of generally less than 50 parts per million (ppm) amplitude over the ∼2 ppm instrument noise level. The total solar irradiance (TSI) from the TIM is about 1361 W/m², or 4–5 W/m² lower than that measured by other current TSI instruments. This difference is not considered an instrument or calibration error. Comparisons with other instruments show excellent agreement of solar variability on a relative scale. The TIM observed the Sun during the extreme activity period extending from late October to early November 2003. During this period, the instrument recorded both the largest short-term decrease in the 25-year TSI record and also the first definitive detection of a solar flare in TSI, from which an integrated energy of roughly (6± 3)×10³² ergs from the 28 October 2003 X17 flare is estimated. The TIM has also recorded two planets transiting the Sun, although only the Venus transit on 8 June 2004 was definitive.     

Beryllium-10 and aluminum-26 in individual cosmic spherules from Antarctica

Abstract— We present data for the cosmogenic nuclides ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al in a suite of 24 extraterrestrial spherules, collected from Antarctic moraines and deep sea sediments. All of the 10 large spherules collected in glacial till at Lewis Cliff are extraterrestrial. As in earlier work, the great majority of particles show prominent solar cosmic-ray (SCR) production of ²⁶Al, indicating bombardment ages on the order of 10⁶ years or even longer. These long ages are in direct contradiction to model ages for small particles in the inner Solar System and may require reconsideration of models of small particle lifetimes. A small fraction of the particles so far measured (6/42) possess cosmogenic radionuclide patterns consistent with predictions for meteoroid spall droplets. We believe that most of the spherules were bombarded in space primarily as bodies not much larger than their present size. The content of in situ produced ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al in quartz pebbles in the same moraine suggests that these spherules may have on average a significant terrestrial age.     

Sunspot and Auroral Activity During Maunder Minimum

The extremely low sunspot activity during the period of the Maunder minimum 1645–1715 was confirmed by group sunspot numbers, a new sunspot index constructed by Hoyt and Schatten (1998a,b). Neither sunspots nor auroral data time behavior indicate the presence of 11-year solar cycles as stated by Eddy (1976). The evidence for solar cycles was found in the butterfly diagram, constructed from observations made at Observatoire de Paris. After Clivier, Boriakoff, and Bounar (1998) the solar cycles were reflected also in geomagnetic activity. Results are supported by the variation of cosmogenic isotopes ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C. The majority of the observed 14 naked-eye sunspots occurred on days when telescopic observations were not available. A part of them appeared in the years when no spot was allegedly observed. Two-ribbon flares appear in plages with only very small or no sunspots. Some of these flares are geoactive. Most aurorae (90%), which were observed during the Maunder minimum, appeared in years when no spot was observed. Auroral events as a consequence of proton flares indicate that regions with enhanced magnetic field can occur on the Sun when these regions do not produce any sunspots.     

The L3–6 chondritic regolith breccia Northwest Africa (NWA) 869: (II) Noble gases and cosmogenic radionuclides

Abstract– We measured cosmogenic radionuclides and noble gases in the L3–6 chondrite breccia Northwest Africa (NWA) 869, one of the largest meteorite finds from the Sahara. Concentrations of ¹⁰Be, ²⁶Al, and ³⁶Cl in stone and metal fractions of six fragments of NWA 869 indicate a preatmospheric radius of 2.0–2.5 m. The ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be concentrations in three fragments yield a terrestrial age of 4.4 ± 0.7 kyr, whereas two fragments show evidence for a recent change in shielding, most likely due to a recent impact on the NWA meteoroid, approximately 10⁵ yr ago, that excavated material up to approximately 80 cm deep and exposed previously shielded material to higher cosmic‐ray fluxes. This scenario is supported by the low cosmogenic ³He/²¹Ne ratios in these two samples, indicating recent loss of cosmogenic ³He. Most NWA samples, except for clasts of petrologic type 4–6, contain significant amounts of solar Ne and Ar, but are virtually free of solar helium, judging from the trapped ⁴He/²⁰Ne ratio of approximately 7. Trapped planetary‐type Kr and Xe are most clearly present in the bulk and matrix samples, where abundances of ¹²⁹Xe from decay of now extinct ¹²⁹I are highest. Cosmogenic ²¹Ne varies between 0.55 and 1.92 × 10^?8 cm³ STP g^?1, with no apparent relationship between cosmogenic and solar Ne contents. Low cosmogenic (²²Ne/²¹Ne)_c ratios in solar gas free specimens are consistent with irradiation in a large body. Combined ¹⁰Be and ²¹Ne concentrations indicate that NWA 869 had a 4π cosmic‐ray exposure (CRE) age of 5 ± 1 Myr, whereas elevated ²¹Ne concentrations in several clasts and bulk samples indicate a previous CRE of 10–30 Myr on the parent body, most probably as individual components in a regolith. Unlike many other large chondrites, NWA 869 does not show clear evidence of CRE as a large boulder near the surface of its parent body. Radiogenic ⁴He concentrations in most NWA 869 samples indicate a major outgassing event approximately 2.8 Gyr ago that may have also resulted in loss of solar helium.     

Cross sections from 5 to 35 MeV for the reactions natMg(3He,x)26Al, 27Al(3He,x)26Al,natCa(3He,x)41Ca,and natCa(3He,x)36Cl: Implications for early irradiation in the solar system

Abstract– Cross sections were measured for the nuclear reactions ^natMg(³He,x)²⁶Al, ²⁷Al(³He,x)²⁶Al, ^natCa(³He,x)⁴¹Ca, and ^natCa(³He,x)³⁶Cl in the energy region from approximately 5–35 MeV. The rates of these reactions are important for studies of early solar system irradiation scenarios. The ²⁶Al, ³⁶Cl, and ⁴¹Ca were separated chemically, and the numbers of atoms produced in each reaction channel were measured using accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). From these results, 26 cross sections were determined and compared with predictions of the TALYS code. Agreement is within 40% for most cross sections. Our measurements were used to model the production of ⁷Be, ¹⁰Be, ²⁶Al, and ⁴¹Ca in the early solar system. For projectiles ¹H, ³He, and ⁴He, we assumed energy spectra of the general form E^?α. For a wide range of parameterizations, the modeled ratios of ⁷Be/Be and ¹⁰Be/Be on the one hand and of ²⁶Al/²⁷Al and ⁴¹Ca/Ca on the other are coupled because the excitation functions for the relevant nuclear reactions have similar shapes. Modeling of a closed system with the constraint that ¹⁰Be/⁹Be = 0.001 fails to reproduce simultaneously the range of ⁷Be/⁹Be, ²⁶Al/²⁷Al, and ⁴¹Ca/Ca ratios inferred for the early solar system from studies of meteorites.     

Solar Magnetic Activity and Total Irradiance Since the Maunder Minimum

We develop a model for estimating solar total irradiance since 1600 AD using the sunspot number record as input, since this is the only intrinsic record of solar activity extending back far enough in time. Sunspot number is strongly correlated, albeit nonlinearly with the 10.7-cm radio flux (F _10.7), which forms a continuous record back to 1947. This enables the nonlinear relationship to be estimated with usable accuracy and shows that relationship to be consistent over multiple solar activity cycles. From the sunspot number record we estimate F _10.7 values back to 1600 AD. F _10.7 is linearly correlated with the total amount of magnetic flux in active regions, and we use it as input to a simple cascade model for the other magnetic flux components. The irradiance record is estimated by using these magnetic flux components plus a very rudimentary model for the modulation of energy flow to the photosphere by the subphotospheric magnetic flux reservoir feeding the photospheric magnetic structures. Including a Monte Carlo analysis of the consequences of measurement and fitting errors, the model indicates the mean irradiance during the Maunder Minimum was about 1 ± 0.4 W m⁻² lower than the mean irradiance over the last solar activity cycle.     

Solar Activity Record from Archeomagnetic Data

Each of the available solar activity (SA) proxy data (historical notes, radio nuclides ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be production) are contaminated by their specific noise factors. So, any additional proxy with its independent noise factors will essentially increase the accuracy of composite SA restorations. It is proposed here that archaeomagnetic measurements 95% confidence interval (α₉₅) may serve as new proxy for the SA estimation in the past. This proxy is compared with other available proxies during the years 1500–2000.