Are Cosmic Rays Influencing Oceanic Cloud Coverage – Or Is It Only El Niño?

The monthly average (C2) cloudcoverage data produced by the International SatelliteCloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) for the period ofJuly 1986–June 1991 show strong global and regionalcloud coverage variations associated with the ElNiño of 1986–1987. The Pacific Ocean, inparticular, shows strong regional variations in cloudcoverage. These agree well with contemporaneoussatellite observations of broadband shortwave infraredcloud forcing measured by the Earth Radiation BudgetExperiment. Svensmark and Friis-Christensen (1997)noted a similarity between the shape of the timeseries curve of average cloud coverage fraction formid- to low-latitude ocean-areas and the time seriescurve of cosmic ray flux intensity. They proposed acausal relationship – a `missing link' for solarcycle influence on Earth climate. Further spatial andtemporal analysis of the same ISCCP C2 data in thispaper indicates that the cloud coverage variationpatterns are those to be expected for the atmosphericcirculation changes characteristic of El Niño,weakening the case for cosmic rays as a climaticforcing factor.     

Cosmic ray flux impact on clouds? An analysis of radiosonde, cloud cover, and surface temperature records from the United States

Summary ¶Many scientists have suggested that variations in cosmic ray flux may impact cloudiness at regional, hemispheric, or global scales. However, considerable debate surrounds (a) whether high or low clouds are most strongly impacted by cosmic rays, (b) the degree of seasonality in cloud responses to cosmic rays, and (c) the determination of physical processes involved in cosmic ray/cloud interactions. Some scientists find strong correlation coefficients between cloud measurements and cosmic ray flux, while others find no relationship whatsoever; virtually all scientists working on this issue are hampered by the relatively short time period with accurate cloud and cosmic ray flux records. In an attempt to extend the period of record, we assembled surface and radiosonde data for the United States over the period 1957–1996 along with sunspot records which are known to be strongly, but inversely, related to cosmic ray flux. We also assembled cloud cover data and cosmic ray measurements over a reduced time period. We found that periods with low sunspot number (times with high cosmic ray flux) are associated with significantly higher dew point depressions, a higher diurnal temperature range, and less cloud cover. Our results do not support suggestions of increased cloud cover during periods of high cosmic ray flux.Received May 14, 2002; accepted February 17, 2003 Published online May 26, 2003     

A conceptual template for integrative human–environment research

Knowledge integration, the blending of concepts from two or more disciplines to create innovative new worldviews, is a key process in attempts to increase the sustainability of human activities on Earth. In this paper, we describe a ‘conceptual template’ that can be used to catalyse this process. The template comprises (a) a list of high-level concepts that capture the essential aspects of any significant human–environment problem, plus (b) broad lists of low-level basic concepts drawn from a range of disciplines. Our high-level concepts, which we call ‘conceptual clusters’, are labelled Dynamics & System, Organisation & Scale, Controlling Models, Management & Policy, Adaptation & Learning, and History. Many of the clustered, lower-level concepts are synonyms and thus provide possible connections between disciplines—for this reason we call them ‘nexus concepts’. We suggest that a conceptual template like that presented here can provide strong support to the initial phases of integrative research programs.     

New studies on the radioactivity of the atmosphere

1. I.
   The effect of the gamma rays from the various radioactive substances floating in the atmosphere—previously only estimated theoretically—was determined directly by measuring the total ionization with and without a 1,2 cm. iron plate on top of the ionization chamber which was shielded on the bottom and on all sides by 10 cm. iron. The absorption of the soft component of cosmic radiation in 1,2 cm. iron was taken into account. It was found that the gamma radiation from the radioactive substances in the atmosphere (“air radiation”) amounts, on the average to 0,15I (ion pairs per cm.³·sec) near the ground. It varies considerably from day to day. These variations can exaggerate or mask actual fluctuations which may occur in the soft component of cosmic rays.     
   
   

Ethics and public perception of climate change: Exploring the Christian voices in the US public debate

Climate change raises many questions with strong moral and ethical dimensions that are important to address in climate-policy formation and international negotiations. Particularly in the United States, the public discussion of these dimensions is strongly influenced by religious groups and leaders. Over the past few years, many religious groups have taken positions on climate change, highlighting its ethical dimensions. This paper aims to explore these ethical dimensions in the US public debate in relation to public support for climate policies. It analyzes in particular the Christian voices in the US public debate on climate change by typifying the various discourses. Three narratives emerge from this analysis: ‘conservational stewardship’ (conserving the ‘garden of God’ as it was created), ‘developmental stewardship’ (turning the wilderness into a garden as it should become) and ‘developmental preservation’ (God's creation is good and changing; progress and preservation should be combined). The different narratives address fundamental ethical questions, dealing with stewardship and social justice, and they provide proxies for public perception of climate change in the US. Policy strategies that pay careful attention to the effects of climate change and climate policy on the poor – in developing nations and the US itself – may find support among the US population. Religious framings of climate change resonate with the electorates of both progressive and conservative politicians and could serve as bridging devices for bipartisan climate-policy initiatives.     

Electrical current along balloon rigging line inside thunderstorms

We have designed a new instrument to measure the current flowing along balloon rigging line during flights through thunderstorms. This instrument was tested in a high voltage facility and used to collect line current data during one balloon flight into a thunderstorm. Using these data, worst-case calculations are made; as such, we claim that they are the upper limits of any alteration (to the measured electric field or particle charge) that may occur, and the real number is likely much less. It is postulated the rigging-line current could have two separate effects on the measured electric field: (1) reduction of the field due to emission of corona ions, and (2) enhancement of the field due to the insertion of a long thin ‘conductor.' Even with current as high as 1 μA (the largest measured was around 50–100 nA), these two effects were found to be about −1% and +1%, respectively. Also, the calculated worst-case alteration to charged precipitation measurements is about 0.1 pC. Thus, with proper efforts to make the rigging line as poor a conductor as possible, it seems that we are justified in stating that these effects are negligible.     

Interactions between thermal advection in frontal zones and the urban heat island of Wrocław, Poland

Summary This paper deals with variability in the air temperature field of an urban area during thermal advection, associated with frontal zones, and its interaction with an urban heat island (UHI). Thermal changes experienced in Wrocław, Poland form the basis of this case study analysis. The discussion also contributes to questions concerning the definition of the UHI and ways to select UHI episodes from existing data sets. It is shown that changes in temperature generated during periods of advection are of short duration, only a few hours at most, but thermal contrasts between various parts of a city at such times are sometimes large, reaching an intensity of 5–6 K, even as large as 9 K. Thus, their intensity is comparable with that of the UHI occurring on cloudless and windless nights. The thermal influence of advection is often greater than that due to urban factors; it is only on occasions with less dynamic advection, that a concentric temperature field is formed due to the modified physical properties of the city. In the majority of cases, the thermal field is non-concentric and this is linked with the location of a frontal zone at any given time. The thermal effects of advection recorded in a data set might easily be viewed as episodes of UHI existence, especially if analysis is conducted based on the data derived from just two stations – one urban the other rural. On occasions when such ‘quasi-UHI’ occur the role of the location of the rural, reference station is also evaluated. Precise definition of the urban heat island can be of significance when conducting comparative studies of the UHI in cities located in different geographical zones and when making an urban climate synthesis.     

‘Earth system governance’ as a crosscutting theme of global change research

In 2001, the four global change research programmes ‘urgently’ called for ‘an ethical framework for global stewardship and strategies for Earth System management’. Yet this notion of ‘earth system management’ remains vaguely defined: It is too elusive for natural scientists, and too ambitious or too normative for social scientists. In this article, I develop an alternative concept that is better grounded in social science theory: ‘earth system governance’. I introduce, first, the concept of earth system governance as a new social phenomenon, a political programme and a crosscutting theme of research in the field of global environmental change. I then sketch the five key problem structures that complicate earth system governance, and derive from these four overarching principles for earth system governance as political practice, namely credibility, stability, adaptiveness, and inclusiveness. In the last part of the article, I identify five research and governance challenges that lie at the core of earth system governance as a crosscutting theme in global change research. These are the problems of the overall architecture of earth system governance, of agency beyond the state, of the adaptiveness of governance mechanisms and of their accountability and legitimacy, and of the modes of allocation in earth system governance—in short, the five A's of earth system governance research.     

The new climate discourse: Alarmist or alarming?

The discourse on climate change is in part divided between a sense of alarm and a sense of alarmism in assessments of the magnitude and urgency of the problem. The divide in the discourse among climatologists relates to tensions in the use of key phrases to describe climate change. This article reviews evidence to support claims that climate change can be viewed as ‘catastrophic’, ‘rapid’, ‘urgent’, ‘irreversible’, ‘chaotic’, and ‘worse than previously thought’. Each of these terms are imprecise and may convey a range of meaning. The method used here is to assess whether the conventional understandings of these terms are broadly consistent or inconsistent with the science, or else ambiguous. On balance, these terms are judged to be consistent with the science. Factors which divide climatologists on this discourse are also reviewed. The divide over a sense of urgency relates to disagreement on the manner and rate at which ice sheets breakdown in response to sustained warming. Whether this rate is fast or slow, the amount of time available to reduce emissions sufficient to prevent ice sheet breakdown is relatively short, given the moderate levels of warming required and the inertia of the climate and energy systems. A new discourse is emerging which underscores the scope of the problem and the scope and feasibility of solutions. This discourse differentiates itself from existing discourses which view the magnitudes of the problem or of solutions as prohibitive.     

Solar Forcing of Global Temperature Change Since AD 1400

It is well known that the magnetic field imbedded in the solar wind modulates the production of cosmogenic isotopes by galactic cosmic rays. Power spectral analysis yields evidence for fundamental periods relevant to this study including the Suess, Gleissberg, Hale and Schwabe cycles of ca. 210, 88, 22 and 11 years lengths. There is increasing evidence for an irradiance component accompanying each of these cycles. Assuming this is valid, we model the magnitude of irradiance change associated with these cycles that is compatible with the paleoclimate record. We conclude that the resultant model fit requires less than ±0.8 change in solar irradiance for each of these cycles even if we assume low climate sensitivity (0.5 °C(Wm^–2)). Our solar irradiance model accounts for about 18% of 20th century global warming to 1997 and also predicts that the next maximum would occur in ad 2040 and contribute 0.2 °C to 21st century Northern Hemisphere warming.     

Climate change or nuclear power—No thanks! A quantitative study of public perceptions and risk framing in Britain

The UK is witnessing a new line in political debate around new nuclear energy generation as one potential feature of future energy policy, specifically for contributing to climate change mitigation alongside energy security. Little is known about how ordinary citizens might be responding to this reframing. This paper reports the results from a major British survey (n=1491) undertaken in the autumn of 2005. The consistent message is that while higher proportions of the British public are prepared to accept nuclear power if they believe it contributes to climate change mitigation, this is a highly conditional view, with very few actively preferring this over renewable sources given the choice. People see both climate change and nuclear power as problematic in terms of risks and express only a ‘reluctant acceptance’ of nuclear power as a ‘solution’ to climate change. The combined data from this survey can also be interpreted as an indication of the complexity surrounding beliefs about energy futures and the difficulty of undertaking simplistic risk–risk tradeoffs within any single framing of the issues; such as nuclear energy versus climate change. The results also indicate that it would be unwise, in the UK as elsewhere, to simplistically assume that there exists any single or stable public ‘opinion’ on such complex matters. We conclude with a discussion of the role and implications of the survey evidence for the policy process.     

The political ecology of Chilean salmon aquaculture, 1982–2010: A trajectory from economic development to global sustainability

Through the case of the salmon aquaculture sector in Chile, the risks involved in the development of a non-traditional export sector are reviewed, in order to point to failings (lessons not learned) and opportunities (lessons learned, new plans), and the changing scales of stakeholder interactions. In particular the paper highlights the ways in which sustainability considerations have gained ground in terms of evaluating sectoral development and what is expected from this development. These considerations have emerged as a result of the increasing globalisation of the sector, through investment, exports and international ‘attention’ from an increasingly diverse set of stakeholders. These sustainability considerations have generated a range of conflicts linked to these diverse actors. The actors are local, national and global, operating through alliances to bring pressure on others. The conflicts relate to environmental quality, foreign direct investment (FDI), local socio-economic development, regional development, national economic strategies, and new globalised issues relating to the production and consumption of foodstuffs. The contemporary panorama in the sector is significantly different from the early origins in the 1980s under the dictatorship – the period of ‘the socio-ecological silence’ – also different from the 1990s period of economic expansion – ‘the economic imperative’. Over the past twenty-five years, the Chilean aquaculture sector has evolved from experimental production to a major global industry. Regulatory frameworks and civil society awareness and mobilisation have struggled to ‘catch up’ with the dynamism of the sector, however the gap has reduced and the future of the sector within the contemporary context of ‘glocal’ sustainability is now under the microscope: the ‘sustainable globalisation perspective’. The collapse of the sector during the period 2008–2010 as a consequence of the ISA virus is a key moment with production severely diminished. The way out of the crisis, via new legislation and inspection regimes, will create a new structure of aquaculture governance. Nevertheless, the crisis marks a turning point in the industry, revealing the weaknesses built into the former productive system.     

A review of the relevance of the ‘CLOUD’ results and other recent observations to the possible effect of cosmic rays on the terrestrial climate

The problem of the contribution of cosmic rays to climate change is a continuing one and one of importance. In principle, at least, the recent results from the CLOUD project at CERN provide information about the role of ionizing particles in ’sensitizing’ atmospheric aerosols which might, later, give rise to cloud droplets. Our analysis shows that, although important in cloud physics the results do not lead to the conclusion that cosmic rays affect atmospheric clouds significantly, at least if H₂SO₄ is the dominant source of aerosols in the atmosphere. An analysis of the very recent studies of stratospheric aerosol changes following a giant solar energetic particles event shows a similar negligible effect. Recent measurements of the cosmic ray intensity show that a former decrease with time has been reversed. Thus, even if cosmic rays enhanced cloud production, there would be a small global cooling, not warming.     

Barriers perceived to engaging with climate change among the UK public and their policy implications

This paper reports on the barriers that members of the UK public perceive to engaging with climate change. It draws upon three mixed-method studies, with an emphasis on the qualitative data which offer an in-depth insight into how people make sense of climate change. The paper defines engagement as an individual's state, comprising three elements: cognitive, affective and behavioural. A number of common barriers emerge from the three studies, which operate broadly at ‘individual’ and ‘social’ levels. These major constraints to individual engagement with climate change have implications for achieving significant reductions in greenhouse gases in the UK. We argue that targeted and tailored information provision should be supported by wider structural change to enable citizens and communities to reduce their carbon dependency. Policy implications for effective engagement are discussed.     

Compounds, creativity and complexity in climate change communication: The case of ‘carbon indulgences’

This article deals with climate change from a linguistic perspective. Climate change is an extremely complex issue that has exercised the minds of experts and policy makers with renewed urgency in recent years. It has prompted an explosion of writing in the media, on the internet and in the domain of popular science and literature, as well as a proliferation of new compounds around the word ‘carbon’ as a hub, such as ‘carbon indulgence’, a new compound that will be studied in this article. Through a linguistic analysis of lexical and discourse formations around such ‘carbon compounds’ we aim to contribute to a broader understanding of the meaning of climate change. Lexical carbon compounds are used here as indicators for observing how human symbolic cultures change and adapt in response to environmental threats and how symbolic innovation and transmission occurs.     

基于小波技术的地面大气电场数据处理

使用安装在南京信息工程大学实验场的法国电场仪AMEO340于2009年观测试验期间的观测资料,将大气电场仪采样序列数据经快速傅里叶变换,得到序列的功率谱。对晴天和伴有闪电天气的地面大气电场数据进行了小波函数为sym5的7层分解,大大降低了地面大气电场数据波形的重叠度。通过对伴有闪电天气的地面大气电场数据进行小波7层分解,地面大气电场信号的低频部分不仅突出显示了地面大气电场值的主要变化趋势,而且能清晰的分辨出闪电过程中较强的正负地闪次数。为利用地面大气电场强度值的变化特征进行闪电预警提供了更有效的信息。     

EnKF循环同化相控阵雷达数据与变分雷达反演方法的对比研究:对一次台风外围龙卷个例的分析北大核心

针对2018年9月17日发生在广东省佛山市的一次台风龙卷过程,对比分析了EnKF和变分方法同化X波段相控阵雷达得到的风场结构。结果表明,EnKF方法和变分方法在同化了X波段相控阵雷达资料之后,都可以得到龙卷母体风暴的涡旋特征。相比之下,EnKF同化分析的涡旋强度更强,台风龙卷母体风暴及其周边三维风场的结构更加完整,与回波结构匹配更好。变分方法同化得到的流场不够连续,台风龙卷母体风暴的涡旋强度偏弱,弱回波区入流也明显偏弱,并不符合概念模型。而两种方法在没有同化相控阵雷达数据时,都无法产生龙卷母体风暴的流场特征。总体而言,相对于变分方法,EnKF同化系统在同化X波段相控阵雷达数据后可以产生更为合理的涡旋结构,台风龙卷母体风暴及其周边动力场结构更合理,这为以后X波段相控阵雷达的业务应用提供了思路。     

Variations in the atmospheric electric field and Meteorological parameters at a Tropical coastal urban station during 1936–40 and 1962–66

Summary The seasonal and diurnal variations in the vertical component of the atmospheric electric field, air temperature, relative humidity and horizontal wind speed were studied using the surface data for the two periods (1936–40) and (1962–66) recorded at the tropical urban station, Colaba, Bombay (18°51N, 72°49E, 11 m ASL), located on the west coast of India.The atmospheric electric field during the latter period (1962–66) is significantly higher (up to 42.3%) than the earlier period (1936–40). This has been attributed to the enhanced particulate concentrations in the atmosphere. The increase noticed in the atmospheric electric field is a maximum during winter and minimum during the monsoon. The atmospheric electric field exhibited a marked semi-diurnal oscillation with peaks at 0900 LST and 2200 LST during winter, premonsoon and post-monsoon seasons of both the periods. During the monsoon season the double oscillation is not marked.The variations noticed in the surface air temperature and the relative humidity are in agreement with those observed in the atmospheric electric field. The horizontal wind speed showed a decrease which has been attributed to the surface roughness resulting from urbanization.With 7 Figures     

‘Strange changes’: Indigenous perspectives of climate change and adaptation in NE Arnhem Land (Australia)

Despite growing global attention to the development of strategies and policy for climate change adaptation, there has been little allowance for input from Indigenous people. In this study we aimed to improve understanding of factors important in integration of Yolngu perspectives in planning adaptation policy in North East Arnhem Land (Australia). We conducted workshops and in-depth interviews in two ‘communities’ to develop insight into Yolngu peoples’ observations and perspectives on climate change, and their ideas and preferences for adaptation. All participants reported observing changes in their ecological landscape, which they attributed to mining, tourism ‘development’, and climate change. ‘Strange changes’ noticed particularly in the last five years, had caused concern and anxiety among many participants. Despite their concern about ecological changes, participants were primarily worried about other issues affecting their community's general welfare. The results suggest that strategies and policies are needed to strengthen adaptive capacity of communities to mitigate over-arching poverty and well-being issues, as well as respond to changes in climate. Participants believed that major constraints to strengthening adaptive capacity had external origins, at regional, state and federal levels. Examples are poor communication and engagement, top-down institutional processes that allow little Indigenous voice, and lack of recognition of Indigenous culture and practices. Participants’ preferences for strategies to strengthen community adaptive capacity tended to be those that lead towards greater self-sufficiency, independence, empowerment, resilience and close contact with the natural environment. Based on the results, we developed a simple model to highlight main determinants of community vulnerability. A second model highlights components important in facilitating discourse on enhancing community capacity to adapt to climatic and other stressors.     

Description and first results of an explicit electrical scheme in a 3D cloud resolving model

The three-dimensional non-hydrostatic mesoscale model MésoNH of the French community offers the numerical environment to develop a cloud electrification scheme in a consistent way with the original mixed phase microphysical scheme. The charge separation mechanisms are entirely due to non-inductive processes and result from elastic ice–snow, ice–graupel and snow–graupel collisions. The electric charges carried by each of the five hydrometeor categories are transported along the airflow and are exchanged according to the various microphysical mass transfer rates but assuming a power law distribution of the individual charges as a function of the particle size. The electric field is diagnosed at each time step after integrating the electric potential induced by a net charge density in the Poisson equation. Finally, a lightning ash is triggered when the electric field locally steps over a given threshold. It propagates in two opposite directions until the magnitude of the electric field falls below a prescribed value. A fractal branching algorithm is then activated to extend lightning streamers away from the main channel and toward cloudy regions where substantial charge densities are present. Charges are neutralized along the tortuous lightning path with a simple procedure that preserves total charge conservation.The complete electrification scheme tested for an ideal case of vigorous supercellular storm shows an intense electrical activity all along its lifecycle. We show that the model is able to produce a direct tripolar structure of the charges as the result of a temperature charge reversal of − 10 °C and of the different sedimentation rates of the hydrometeors.