Estimates of gross and net fluxes of carbon between the biosphere and the atmosphere from biomass burning

In order to estimate the production of charcoal and the atmospheric emissions of trace gases volatilized by burning we have estimated the global amounts of biomass which are affected by fires. We have roughly calculated annual gross burning rates ranging between about 5 Pg and 9 Pg (1 Pg = 10¹⁵ g) of dry matter (2–4 Pg C). In comparison, about 9–17 Pg of above-ground dry matter (4–8 Pg C) is exposed to fires, indicating a worldwide average burning efficiency of about 50%. The production of dead below-ground dry matter varies between 6–9 Pg per year. We have tentatively indicated the possibility of a large production of elemental carbon (0.5–1.7 Pg C/yr) due to the incomplete combustion of biomass to charcoal. This provides a sink for atmospheric CO₂, which would have been particularly important during the past centuries. From meager statistical information and often ill-documented statements in the literature, it is extremely difficult to calculate the net carbon release rates to the atmosphere from the biomass changes which take place, especially in the tropics. All together, we calculate an overall effect lof the biosphere on the atmospheric carbon dioxide budget which may range between the possibilities of a net uptake or a net release of about 2 Pg C/yr. The release of CO₂ to the atmosphere by deforestation projects may well be balanced by reforestation and by the production of charcoal. Better information is needed, however, to make these estimates more reliable.Now at the Max-Planck-Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, FRG.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Dynamic responses of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to global temperature changes between 1850 and 2010

Changes in Earth's temperature have significant impacts on the global carbon cycle that vary at different time scales, yet to quantify such impacts with a simple scheme is traditionally deemed difficult. Here, we show that, by incorporating a temperature sensitivity parameter(1.64 ppm yr~(-1) ?C~(-1)) into a simple linear carbon-cycle model, we can accurately characterize the dynamic responses of atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_2) concentration to anthropogenic carbon emissions and global temperature changes between 1850 and 2010(r~2 0.96 and the root-mean-square error 1 ppm for the period from 1960onward). Analytical analysis also indicates that the multiplication of the parameter with the response time of the atmospheric carbon reservoir(～12 year) approximates the long-term temperature sensitivity of global atmospheric CO_2concentration(～15 ppm?C~(-1)), generally consistent with previous estimates based on reconstructed CO_2 and climate records over the Little Ice Age. Our results suggest that recent increases in global surface temperatures, which accelerate the release of carbon from the surface reservoirs into the atmosphere, have partially offset surface carbon uptakes enhanced by the elevated atmospheric CO_2 concentration and slowed the net rate of atmospheric CO_2 sequestration by global land and oceans by ～30%since the 1960 s. The linear modeling framework outlined in this paper thus provides a useful tool to diagnose the observed atmospheric CO_2 dynamics and monitor their future changes.     

Computing the flux of moisture from net radiation and soil wetness

A study has been made of the time evolution of the flux of moisture E over grassland. The parameterization of E has been examined in order to formulate an equation depending on the net radiation flux and on bulk parameters which depend on the daily average meteorological situation and soil conditions. In particular the gradient of soil moisture has been recognized as playing a fundamental role in the time evolution of E(t). A time-dependent equation is proposed to compute in a statistical sense the irrigation needs or to forecast the hourly values of E(t), the maximum value E ₀ and the time at which this maximum happens.     

Sensitivity of carbon cycling in the European Alps to changes of climate and land cover

Assessments of the impacts of global change on carbon stocks in mountain regions have received little attention to date, in spite of the considerable role of these areas for the global carbon cycle. We used the regional hydro-ecological simulation system RHESSys in five case study catchments from different climatic zones in the European Alps to investigate the behavior of the carbon cycle under changing climatic and land cover conditions derived from the SRES scenarios of the IPCC. The focus of this study was on analyzing the differences in carbon cycling across various climatic zones of the Alps, and to explore the differences between the impacts of various SRES scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1, B2), and between several global circulation models (GCMs, i.e., HadCM3, CGCM2, CSIRO2, PCM). The simulation results indicate that the warming trend generally enhances carbon sequestration in these catchments over the first half of the twenty-first century, particularly in forests just below treeline. Thereafter, forests at low elevations increasingly release carbon as a consequence of the changed balance between growth and respiration processes, resulting in a net carbon source at the catchment scale. Land cover changes have a strong modifying effect on these climate-induced patterns. While the simulated temporal pattern of carbon cycling is qualitatively similar across the five catchments, quantitative differences exist due to the regional differences of the climate and land cover scenarios, with land cover exerting a stronger influence. The differences in the simulations with scenarios derived from several GCMs under one SRES scenario are of the same magnitude as the differences between various SRES scenarios derived from one single GCM, suggesting that the uncertainty in climate model projections needs to be narrowed before accurate impact assessments under the various SRES scenarios can be made at the local to regional scale. We conclude that the carbon balance of the European Alps is likely to shift strongly in the future, driven mainly by land cover changes, but also by changes of the climate. We recommend that assessments of carbon cycling at regional to continental scales should make sure to adequately include sub-regional differences of changes in climate and land cover, particularly in areas with a complex topography.     

Evaluating the impacts of land use and land cover changes on surface air temperature using the WRF-mosaic approach

如何量化土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)对区域气候的影响,是人类活动影响气候变化研究中的一个难点。本文利用卫星遥感反映过去三十年东亚区域土地利用变化数据,基于Mosaic近似考虑土地利用及其变化次网格尺度过程,量化了LUCC对地表辐射收支及气温的影响。过去三十年土地利用/覆盖变化对东亚区域总体呈降温效应(中国东部地区增温效应),LUCC导致的地表反照率变化影响地表辐射收支,中国和东亚区域的辐射强迫分别为-0.56 W m~(-2)和-0.50 W m~(-2)。     

Anthropogenic Direct Radiative Forcing of Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols from 1850 to 2000 Estimated with IPCC AR5 Emissions Inventories

This study estimates direct radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone and all aerosols between the years 1850 and 2000, using the new IPCC AR5 （the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report） emissions inventories and a fully coupled chemistry-aerosol general circulation model. As compared to the previous Global Emissions Inventory Activity （GEIA） data, that have been commonly used for forcing estimates since 1990, the IPCC AR5 emissions inventories report lower anthropogenic emissions of organic carbon and black carbon aerosols and higher sulfur and NOx emissions. The simulated global and annual mean burdens of sulfate, nitrate, black carbon （BC）, primary organic aerosol （POA）, secondary organic aerosol （SOA）, and ozone were 0.79, 0.35, 0.05, 0.49, 0.34, and 269 Tg, respectively, in the year 1850, and 1.90, 0.90, 0.11, 0.71, 0.32, and 377 Tg, respectively, in the year 2000. The estimated annual mean top of the atmosphere （TOA） direct radiative forcing of all anthropogenic aerosols based on the AR5 emissions inventories is -0.60 W m^-2 on a global mean basis from 1850 to 2000. However, this is -2.40 W m-2 when forcing values are averaged over eastern China （18-45°N and 95-125°E）. The value for tropospheric ozone is 0.17 W m^-1 on a global mean basis and 0.24 W m^-2 over eastern China. Forcing values indicate that the climatic effect of aerosols over eastern China is much more significant than the globally averaged effect.     

Aircraft observation of carbon dioxide at 8–13 km altitude over the western Pacific from 1993 to 1999

Abstract The spatial and temporal variations of atmospheric CO₂ at 8–13 km from April 1993 to April 1999 were observed by measuring CO₂ mixing ratios in samples collected biweekly from a commercial airliner between Australia and Japan. The CO₂ growth rate showed a considerable interannual variation, with a maximum of about 3 ppm yr⁻¹ during late 1997. This variation is related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. A year-to-year change related to the ENSO events was also found in the latitudinal distribution pattern of the CO₂ annual mean between 30°N and 30°S. The averaged CO₂ seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere gradually decayed toward the equator, and a relatively complicated variation with a double seasonal maximum appeared in the Southern Hemisphere. A significant yearly change of the seasonal cycle pattern was observed in the Southern Hemisphere. The impact of a tropical biomass-burning injection on the upper tropospheric CO₂ was estimated on the basis of the CO data from the same airliner observation.     

Radiative heat flux divergence and heat regime in the lowest layer of the atmosphere

Summary The problem of the influence of radiative flux divergence and turbulent heat exchange on temperature of the near-ground layer of the atmosphere is considered. Different methods of calculating long-wave radiative flux divergence are discussed. The importance of different factors for the thermal regime of the near-ground layer is established by means of the theory of non-stationary heat exchange. The primary conclusions are: 1) temperature changes influenced by radiation and turbulence are not additive; this means that, strictly speaking, separate calculations of either radiative or turbulent temperature changes have no meaning, 2) the theory developed in this paper is sufficiently exact to show that there is a great influence of radiative flux divergence on the thermal regime of the near-ground layer of the atmosphere.

---

Zusammenfassung Es wird das Problem des Einflusses der Strahlungsstrom-Divergenz und des turbulenten W?rmeaustausches auf die Temperatur der bodennahen Luftschicht behandelt. Verschiedene Methoden zur Berechnung der Divergenz der langwelligen Strahlungsstr?me werden diskutiert. Die Bedeutung der verschiedenen Faktoren für das Temperaturregime der bodennahen Luftschicht wird auf Grund der Theorie des nichtstation?ren W?rmeaustausches festgestellt. Die wichtigsten Schlu?folgerungen sind: 1. Die Temperatur?nderungen, die durch Strahlung und Turbulenz hervorgerufen werden, k?nnen nicht addiert werden; dies bedeutet, da? eine gesonderte Berechnung der Temperatur?nderungen durch Strahlungsvorg?nge bzw. durch den Turbulenzw?rmestrom streng genommen nicht zul?ssig ist. 2. Die in der vorliegenden Arbeit entwickelte Theorie erfa?t die tats?chlichen Vorg?nge mit genügender Genauigkeit, um zu beweisen, da? die Divergenz des langwelligen Strahlungsstromes für das Temperaturregime der bodennahen Luftschicht von gro?er Bedeutung ist.

---

Résumé Les auteurs traitent ici le problème de l'influence de la divergence du flux de rayonnement ainsi que des échanges turbulents de chaleur sur la température des couches d'air voisines du sol. Ils discutent diverses méthodes permettant de calculer la divergence des flux de rayonnement de grande longueur d'onde. Ils constatent l'importance des divers facteurs sur le régime de température de ces couches d'air voisines du sol et cela sur la base de la théorie des échanges de chaleur non stationnaires. Les conclusions principales sont: 1) les variations de température dues au rayonnement d'une part et à la turbulence d'autre part ne peuvent être additionnées; cela signifie que, si l'on veut être exact, il n'est pas possible de calculer séparément les variations de température dues aux phénomènes de rayonnement, respectivement aux courants thermiques turbulents, 2) la théorie développée dans ce travail embrasse avec suffisamment de précision les effets réels pour démontrer que la divergence du flux de rayonnement à grande longueur d'ondes est d'une importance capitale pour le régime des températures des couches d'air voisines du sol.

---

---

With 1 Figure

---

Dedicated to Dr.W. M?rikofer on the occasion of his 70 th birthday.     

Detection of changes in streamflow and floods resulting from climate fluctuations and land use-drainage changes

Detection of effects of changing climate on the hydrologic responses of rivers can be further complicated by changes in land use, drainage, and water use. To discern effects of human-caused changes in a basin and those due to precipitation over time, a comparison was made of annual mean flows and peakflows in Midwestern basins that experienced increases in annual precipitation and heavy rain events during 1940–1990. Two pairs of basins, one pair in a rural area and one pair in an urbanized area, were selected for in-pair comparisons, with one basin in each pair experiencing more land use and drainage changes during 1940–1990 than the other basin. All basins experienced significant upward trends in annual precipitation and annual mean flows. Human-produced changes affecting runoff in both rural basins accounted for about two-thirds of the fluctuations in the mean flows, and precipitation changes accounted for the other third. However, much of the change in peakflows in the rural basin undergoing sizable changes in drainage was due to these changes (85%) versus 75% in the rural basin without comparable shifts in drainage. The mean and peak flows of the two urban basins showed considerably more response to precipitation shifts than those of the two rural basins. The urbanized area doubled within one urban basin during 1940–1990, and these land use changes explained much more of the increase in mean flows and peakflows there than in the urban basin with less change in land use. By 1990 precipitation accounted for 69% of the upward trend in mean flows since 1941 in the heavily developed urban basin, as compared to 37% of the trend in the less settled urban basin. For purposes of assessing climate change, the precipitation changes over fifty years in all basins produced marked uptrends in basin streamflow, but the magnitude of the precipitation effect was masked by the land use and drainage changes. The results illustrate the need for careful analysis of natural basin characteristics (soils and basin shape), land use and drainage changes, and of various precipitation conditions if the influence of shifting precipitation on hydrologic conditions is to be detected, accurately measured, and correctly interpreted. For such studies the paired basin comparison techniques appears to be a valuable approach.     

Projecting land use changes in the Neotropics: The geography of pasture expansion into forest

In tropical Latin America, pasture land for extensive grazing continues to expand, mostly at the expense of forest cover. Until now, scientists and policy makers tackling this issue had no geographically exhaustive information at the continental level about the spatial dynamics of this process. On the basis of a land use change-modeling framework we made a projection of potential land use changes for the year 2010.The chosen modeling framework incorporates a number of essential aspects of the complexity of land use change, such as the interrelation of spatial and temporal dynamics, land use history and scale dependence. The model was provided with up-to-date, continent wide, detailed information on present land use and its location factors, selected on the basis of literature. Model inputs were established in collaboration with experts from the region.Significant statistical relations were obtained that describe land use patterns in sub-regions, giving insights into the deforestation process and its location factors. Combined with decision rules and quantitative estimates of land use change, “hot spots” of forest to pasture and crop land conversion were projected. The results envisage a predominant replacement of forest by pasture. Substantially different trends among countries are predicted, both concerning the spatial patterns of deforestation and the substitution trends between land uses. The hot spot maps also show sensitive biological areas that may be at risk.The resulting continent wide map of projected change shall help to target policy attention and measures. It also provides a context to the numerous undergoing deforestation case studies. Finally, it is proposed that the study's results be considered in the priority setting of future research on the causes of deforestation.     

The surface heat flux feedback. Part I: estimates from observations in the Atlantic and the North Pacific

The surface heat flux feedback is estimated in the Atlantic and the North Pacific, using monthly heat flux and sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly data from COADS and the NCEP reanalysis. In the Atlantic, the heat flux feedback is dominated by the turbulent flux. It is negative, mostly ranging between 10 and 35 W m^-2 K^-1, but larger in the western subtropical gyre and part of the subpolar gyre, and weaker in the tropics. The radiative feedback is generally weak. In the North Pacific, the heat flux feedback is also dominated by the turbulent flux and is negative nearly everywhere, peaking in the subtropics. In both oceans, the turbulent heat flux feedback remains primarily negative in each season, and is stronger in fall and winter; patches of positive feedback can be seen, but often with limited correspondence between COADS and NCEP. The radiative feedback remains weak, and is positive in spring and summer at mid-latitudes. It is also shown that the turbulent heat flux feedback is weaker over large-scale areas, that no positive heat flux feedback sustains the SST anomaly "dipole" in the tropical Atlantic, and that the main SST anomaly mode in the North Pacific is damped by a negative heat flux feedback. The energy exchange with the atmosphere that results from the heat flux feedback can be substantial at mid-latitudes, but does not exceed 7 W m^-2 at basin scale.     

Sensitivity to climate change of land use and management patterns optimized for efficient mitigation of nutrient pollution

Beginning in the mid-1990s, re-eutrophication has reemerged as severe problems in Lake Erie. Controlling non-point source (NPS) nutrient pollution from cropland, especially dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), is the key to restore water quality in Lake Erie. To address NPS pollution, previous studies have analyzed the effectiveness of alternative spatially optimal land use and management strategies (represented as agricultural conservation practices (CPs)). However, few studies considered both strategies and have analyzed and compared their sensitivity to expected changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change and increased greenhouse gas concentrations. In this study, we evaluated impacts of climatic change on the economic efficiency of these strategies for DRP abatement, using an integrated modeling approach that includes a watershed model, an economic valuation component, and a spatial optimization model. A series of climate projections representing relatively high greenhouse gas emission scenarios was developed for the western Lake Erie basin to drive the watershed model. We found that performance of solutions optimized for current climate was degraded significantly under projected future climate conditions. In terms of robustness of individual strategies, CPs alone were more robust to climate change than land use change alone or together with CPs, but relying on CPs alone fails to achieve a high (>?71%) DRP reduction target. A combination of CPs and land use changes was required to achieve policy goals for DRP reductions (targeted at ~?78%). Our results point to the need for future spatial optimization studies and planning to consider adaptive capacity of conservation actions under a changing climate.     

Northward flux of zonal velocity due to quasi-stationary and nonstationary waves in the atmosphere during northern hemisphere winter

The zonal wind velocity flux induced by wave motions in the central month of winter (January) is studied from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the general circulation model (GCM) of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS). It is shown that the model describes stationary wave processes with a sufficient accuracy and captures their synoptic period.     

共享社会经济路径在土地利用、能源与碳排放研究的应用

情景是气候变化研究的重要工具。为了科学支撑气候变化科学评估和研究,2010年政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)提出了共享社会经济路径(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs)。作为从社会经济变化视角构建的气候情景,SSPs促进了气候变化科学基础、影响、脆弱性、风险、适应和减缓等学科的综合研究。本文介绍了SSPs情景研发与应用过程;阐述了全球和中国的人口经济、土地利用、能源和碳排放的模拟和预估主要成果;探讨了全球和中国碳排放路径及其与“双碳”目标的关系;并展望了SSPs应用前景。     

改进BP神经网络在城市环境大气污染分季节预报中的应用

用泛化改进后的BP神经网络模型，选用2001、2002、2003年的气象因子和环境监测浓度资料按年度、季节分别建立预报模型，对贵阳市城市大气污染浓度进行预报。该方法除弥补了统计方法的预报精度不高和数值预报模式的方法复杂难实现的不足之处外，还很好地解决了未改进的BP网络训练误差很小时，一个新的输入与对应的目标输出具有较大误差的问题。     

Airflow above changes in surface heat flux,temperature and roughness; an extension to include the stable case

A numerical model of airflow above changes in surface roughness and thermal conditions is extended to include cases with stable thermal stratification within the internal boundary-layer. The model uses a mixing-length approach with empirical forms for M and H.Results are presented for some basic cases and an attempt is then made to compare results given by the model with the experimental results of Rider, Philip and Bradley. Tolerable agreement is achieved. The importance of roughness change and thermal stability effects in the diffusion of heat and moisture near a leading edge is emphasised.Notation A Refers to Taylor (1970) - B Businger-Dyer constant (= 16.0) in forms for _M and _H - C Constant in form for in stable case - c _p Specific heat at constant pressure - E Scaled absolute humidity - g Acceleration due to gravity - H Upward vertical heat flux - H ₀, H ₁ Surface heat fluxes for x <0, x0 - H _E Upward latent heat flux - k Von Kármán's constant (= 0.4) - K _H K _W Eddy transfer coefficients for heat and water vapour - L Monin-Obukhov length - L _H Latent heat of evaporation for water - m Ratio of roughness lengths ( = z ₁/z ₀) - RPB Refers to Rider et al. (1964) - RL* Non-dimensional parameter (see Equations (9), (20a), (22a), (24a)) - R* Net radiation less ground heat flux (see Equations (15), (16)) - T Scaled temperature - T ₁ Downstream scaled surface temperature - u ₀ u ₁(x) Surface friction velocities for x <0, x0 - U, W Horizontal and vertical mean velocities - x, z Horizontal and vertical co-ordinates - Z _i Local roughness length - z ₀, z _i Roughness lengths for x < 0, x 0 - Temperature - ₀, ₁ Surface temperatures for x<0, x0 - _E Non-dimensional absolute humidity gradient - _H Non-dimensional temperature gradient of heat flux - _M Non-dimensional wind shear - = _M = _H = _E an assumption used in stable conditions - Air density - Absolute humidity - _w Density of water - Kinematic shear stress - Logarithmic height scale (= ln(z+z ₁)/z ₁)     

Modeling and assessing the effects of land use changes on runoff generation with the CLUE-s and WetSpa models

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Land use change is an important determinant of hydrological processes and is known to affect hydrological parameters such as runoff volume, flood frequency,...