Simulation of lake ice and its effect on the late-Pleistocene evaporation rate of Lake Lahontan

A model of lake ice was coupled with a model of lake temperature and evaporation to assess the possible effect of ice cover on the late-Pleistocene evaporation rate of Lake Lahontan. The simulations were done using a data set based on proxy temperature indicators and features of the simulated late-Pleistocene atmospheric circulation over western North America. When a data set based on a mean-annual air temperature of 3° C (7° C colder than present) and reduced solar radiation from jet-stream induced cloud cover was used as input to the model, ice cover lasting 4 months was simulated. Simulated evaporation rates (490–527 mm a^–1) were 60% lower than the present-day evaporation rate (1300 mm a^–1) of Pyramid Lake. With this reduced rate of evaporation, water inputs similar to the 1983 historical maxima that occurred in the Lahontan basin would have been sufficient to maintain the 13.5 ka BP high stand of Lake Lahontan.     

A high stand of the Dead Sea at the end of the Neolithic period: Paleoclimatic and archeological implications

A salt deposit, covering land snail shells and rocks, was found in a space under a large boulder at Qumran near the Dead Sea at -280 m elevation and marks the level of the Dead Sea at c. 6700 yr BP. This level is some 120 m above the modern Dead Sea level and thus indicates substantially higher rainfall than at present. Archeological evidence indicates a falling sea level immediately following this time. Despite the favorable climate at the time of the high stand, the presently more arid areas of the southern Levant were nearly deserted. Only during the subsequent period of aridification did these areas become extensively settled by people of the Chalcolithic culture.     

Fuzzy logic model of lake water level fluctuations in Lake Van, Turkey

Summary Lake Van is one of the largest terminal lakes in the world. In recent years, significant lake level fluctuations have occurred and can be related to global climatic change. This fluctuation sometimes exhibits abrupt shifts. Floods originating from the lake can cause considerable damage and loss in agriculture and urban areas. Therefore, water level forecasting plays a significant role in planning and design. This study is aimed at predicting future lake levels from past rainfall amounts and water level records. A dynamical change of the lake level is evaluated by the fuzzy approach. The fuzzy inference system has the ability to use fuzzy membership functions that include the uncertainties of the concerned event. This method is applied for Lake Van, in east Turkey. Furthermore, model capabilities are compared with ARMAX model. It is shown that lower absolute errors are obtained with the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy approach than with the ARMAX model.     

Improving a subgrid runoff parameterization scheme for climate models by the use of high resolution data derived from satellite observations

In this study it is shown that the availability of a very high resolution dataset of land surface characteristics leads to the improvement of a surface runoff parameterization scheme. The improved parameterization scheme was developed for application in global and regional climate models and is a further development of the Arno scheme that is widely used in climate models. Here, surface runoff is computed as infiltration excess from a "bucket" type reservoir which takes the subgrid variability of soil saturation within a model gridbox into account. Instead of prescribing a distribution of subgrid scale soil water capacities as in the original Arno scheme, the array of high resolution soil water capacities taken from a global 1 km dataset of land surface parameters is used to obtain individual fractional saturation curves for each model gridbox. From each saturation curve, the three parameters (a shape parameter describing the shape of the subgrid distribution of soil water capacities, subgrid minimum and maximum soil water capacity) required in the modified formulation of the scheme are derived via optimization. As in the original Arno scheme applied in the ECHAM general circulation model and the REMO regional climate model, topography variations will influence the distribution of saturated subgrid areas within a model gridbox. At most gridboxes the net effect of these changes is such that more runoff is produced for high soil water contents and less runoff for low soil water contents. A validation of simulated discharge computed with a simplified land surface scheme applied to reanalysis data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and a hydrological discharge model has shown that these changes lead to a more realistic simulation of the annual cycle of discharge for several catchments. In particular this could be shown for the Yangtze Kiang and Amur catchments where adequate input data are available.     

On the link between potential evaporation and regional evaporation from a CBL perspective

The relationship between potential evaporation and actual evaporation was first examined by Bouchet (Proc Berkeley Calif Symp IAHS Publ, 62:134–142, 1963) who considered potential evaporation as the consequence of regional evaporation due to atmospheric feedbacks. Using a heuristic approach, he derived a complementary relationship which, despite no real theoretical background, has proven to be very useful in interpreting many experimental data under various climatic conditions. Here, the relationship between actual and potential evaporation is reinterpreted in the context of the development of the convective boundary layer (CBL): first, with a closed-box approach, where the CBL has an impermeable lid; and then with an open system, where air is exchanged between the CBL and its external environment. By applying steady forcing to these systems, it is shown that an equilibrium state is reached, where potential evaporation has a specific equilibrium formulation as a function of two parameters: one representing large-scale advection and the other the feedback effect of regional evaporation on potential evaporation, i.e. a kind of “medium-scale advection”. It is also shown that the original form of Bouchet’s complementary relationship is not verified in the equilibrium state. This analysis leads us to propose a new and more rational approach of the relationship between potential and actual evaporation through the effective surface resistance of the region.     

Spatial and temporal aspects of the lake effect on the southern shore of Lake Superior

A climate-monitoring network was implemented in a large private preserve along the southern shore of Lake Superior. The network uses a dense sampling design to assess the spatial and temporal influence of a large, cold body of water on adjacent terrestrial surfaces. Based on a 3-year record, near-shore sites are 1–2°C cooler than sites 5?km inland in spring and summer, and 1°C warmer in winter. Near the shore, winds are from the NNW most of the year, and are much stronger in winter. Inland, southwesterly flow is typical and overall wind velocity is lower and more consistent. This decoupling is attributable to the influence of the Huron Mountains, a topographic barrier that restricts the lake effect to a narrow coastal zone. A 2-year record of hourly air temperature measurements from 26–30 sites across the study area demonstrates that the mean daily temperature can differ by as much as 11°C, but the average difference is 2.5–3.0°C.     

Insolation estimates for the LITFASS area derived from high resolution satellite data

Summary ?For the LITFASS-98 experiment, from June 1 until June 30, 1998, the spatially resolved insolation at surface could be computed from NOAA-14 AVHRR data applying the modular analysis scheme SESAT (Strahlungs- und Energiebilanzen aus Satellitendaten). The satellite inferred insolation for this period shows for clear-sky regions a good agreement with surface based observations with a rms error of 76 Wm⁻². For cloudy conditions the insolation is overestimated with respect to ground based observations, with a rms error between 83 and 118 Wm⁻², depending on the cloud optical thickness. This overestimation can be explained by the surface heterogeneity, leading to underestimated cloud optical thickness, and also by a fixed relative humidity below clouds (55%, dry atmosphere) and a fixed horizontal visibility (50 km, clear atmosphere). A detailed study of comparable scales in space and time, considering the different observation geometries and sampling intervals, shows that a 30 min ground based observation can be compared with a 8 × 8 km² mean by the satellite data. Received July 12, 2001; revised April 29, 2002; accepted June 7, 2002     

太湖蒸发量对未来气候变化响应的初步模拟分析

与深水湖泊相比,太湖等浅水湖泊更容易发生富营养化和水资源危机,且对气候变化的响应更为敏锐。本文利用气候模式产品数据驱动CLM4-LISSS湖泊陆面过程模型,模拟分析未来(2010—2100年)RCP2.6、RCP4.5、以及RCP8.5不同温室气体排放情景下太湖蒸发量的变化特征及其影响因子。结果表明:(1)CLM4-LISSS模型湖表温度的观测值与模拟值的相关系数为0.94,均方根误差为0.85℃,准确的湖表气温模拟使得通量的结果也比较准确,潜热模拟与观测的相关系数在0.78,均方根误差为55.32 W·m~(-2);(2)2010—2100年,三种不同温室气体排放情景下太湖蒸发都呈现增加的趋势,但增量比例不同,RCP2.6,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,蒸发量每10 a增加量分别为23.7 mm,29.2 mm和34.5 mm。蒸发量的增加速率随着辐射强迫的增加而增大,其变化主要受风速与水汽压差的乘积的影响。     

Snow interception evaporation. Review of measurementtechniques, processes, and models

Summary  A global warming, primarily affecting wintertime conditions at high latitudes will influence the functioning of the boreal forest. The least known term of the winter water-balance equation is evaporation of snow intercepted in forest canopies. Several investigations stress the importance of snow-interception evaporation in coniferous forests and evaporation fractions of gross precipitation as large as 0.2–0.5 have been observed by investigators in Scotland, Canada, and Japan. Evaporation rates as high as 0.56 mm h⁻¹ are reported. The largest differences between the rain and snow interception evaporation processes are the differences in storage. Snow storage (both mass and duration) is often an order of magnitude larger than that for rain. Snow interception changes the canopy albedo although some studies indicate the opposite. Process knowledge is limited because of measurement difficulties but it is known that canopy closure, aerodynamic resistance (r _a ), and vapour-pressure deficit are important factors. Existing formulations of r _a as function of storage location and age cannot fully explain observed differences in evaporation rates. Operationalhydrology and weather models, and GCMs describe snow interception in a very simplified way and might benefit from incorporation of more realistic schemes. Received June 28, 1999     

Simulation of the sensitivity of Lake Victoria basin climate to lake surface temperatures

Summary The response of Lake Victoria basin climate to changes in the lake surface temperatures (LST) has been examined using NCAR-Regional climate model (RegCM2). In the control run uniform lake surface temperature of 24°C was prescribed and the model integrated for four months, starting at the beginning of September, 1988. In the anomaly experiments the LST was perturbed by ±1.5°C, and kept constant during the entire period of the integrations.Simulation results show significant relationship between basin-wide spatial distribution of rainfall and changes in LST. In general during the short rains at warmer/cooler LSTs, significant increase/decrease in the simulated rainfall occurs over the lake surface and surrounding areas. Rainfall exceeding the amount in the control run by more than 50%, particularly over the western, south/southwestern and central parts of the lake is simulated in the run in which the LST is 1.5°C warmer than the control. It is also evident from our results that different parts of the lake basin respond differently to LST changes which is in contrast to the common characterization of the lake basin as a single homogeneous climate regime in many previous studies.In general the results show that regions with largest response to LST anomalies during the short rains are collocated with the ITCZ. In October when the ITCZ is directly located over the lake, the largest response (maximum rainfall) is also located over the same region. As the season progresses and the ITCZ shifts out of the lake into northern Tanzania, the regions of rainfall maxima also shift with it. This appears to explain the unexpected reduction in over-lake rainfall in December in spite of the LST being warmer than control by 1.5°C. We believe this is a direct consequence of the enhanced convection to the south of the lake (over ITCZ) and the tendency of the system to conserve local moisture budget over the lake.     

论陆面蒸发的计算

本文从蒸发E随降水的改变率E/r是剩余蒸发力E_0—E和降水r的函数,即E/r=f(E_0-E,r),而蒸发随蒸发力的改变率E/E_0是剩余水量,r—E和蒸发力E_0的函数,即E/E_0=φ(r-E,E_0)的考虑出发,利用量纲分析和微分方程理论确定了函数f和Φ的表述式,并由此得到根据蒸发力和降水计算陆面蒸发的公式。计算结果非常令人满意。     

Thermal and dynamic characteristics of alpine lake breezes,Lake Tekapo,New Zealand

Thermodynamic characteristics and temporal variation of alpine lake breezes in the eastern Southern Alps are examined. Research was conducted in a large glacially excavated basin dominated by an 87 square kilometre melt-water lake as part of a study of windblown dust dispersion. The surrounding mountain ranges were found to shelter the lake basin from most synoptic winds, thereby allowing local and regional thermally generated circulations to develop to ridge height, approximately 1300m above the surrounding landscape. During favourable synoptic conditions the local lake breeze becomes embedded within the regional valley wind forming an extended lake breeze. Tethersonde flights during these conditions made using a kite based sounding system identified both stable internal (SIBL) and thermal internal boundary layer (TIBL) conditions over the down wind shoreline. Two equations for estimating the height of both boundary-layer types were tested against observations and found to provide good first order predictive estimates of boundary-layer height.     

太湖及与湖岸城市间大气颗粒物分布特征分析

利用冬季连续2 d在两种气象条件下分别环绕太湖对湖泊近无锡区域、湖心区域、近西山岛区域和近苏州区域近湖层的PM0.5、PM2.5和PM10进行质量浓度观测,并通过分析同期相应气象资料(包括高空和地面风场、流场以及湖面站点的水平垂直风向风速等气象数据),探讨湖泊区域内外颗粒物浓度变化的时空特征以及受气象条件变化的影响。研究表明:第1天当天气为晴转阴且无雾时,由于湖面本身缺乏密集强排放源,以及因湖面大气上升运动较强使颗粒物容易被扩散稀释,且受偏东转东南气流所带来的气团较干净影响,湖面湖心区域和离岛区域颗粒物浓度明显低于上游城市;而在第2天当天气为雾时情况则相反,由于湖面大气较弱的上升运动使得大气颗粒物不容易被扩散稀释,且湖泊强大的水汽源影响有助于气溶胶和颗粒物的生成进而使得湖面颗粒物浓度大于周围城市。此外还发现在两种天气下,颗粒物浓度都存在无锡区域最高,湖心区域次之,苏州区域较低的特征。并且,在雾天不同粒径颗粒物间变化的相关系数更高。     

夏季西太平洋副高特征及对湖泊水量变化的影响

采用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、热带气旋频数和洪泽湖自然入湖水量等资料,借助EOF展开、相关分析等技术手段,对西太平洋副热带高压(WPSH,West Paeific Subtropical high)月、季、年变化特征以及对水文过程的影响等进行分析.结果表明:WPSH形态的显著特征表现为在暖季的北进和冷季的南退;随着WPSH脊线指数在暖季明显地呈现北进趋势,热带气旋源地发生频数也存在明显的增加趋势,并同步地在8月达到最大值;洪泽湖自然入湖水量也同步地伴随着WP-SH脊线指数的北进(南退)而增(减),并在7-8月间达到最大值;夏季西伸脊点与夏季距平高度场第一个特征向量的时间系数之间呈较好的反位相关系;夏季WPSH脊线与第二特征向量的时间系数之间呈较好的同位相关系;副高的面积和强度变化与西伸脊点位置之间呈较好的反位相关系.     

On the validity of vertical dispersion coefficients derived from a Markov-chain scheme for use in gaussian diffusion models

This paper addresses the following question: how do the σ _z values derived from vertical concentration distributions computed by a Markov-chain diffusion model compare with the Σ values which must be used in a gaussian diffusion model to give the same ground level concentration distribution as the one computed by the sophisticated model?     

Comparisons of xylem sap flow and water vapour flux at the stand level and derivation of canopy conductance for Scots pine

Summary Simultaneous measurements of xylem sap flow and water vapour flux over a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) forest (Hartheim, Germany), were carried out during the Hartheim Experiment (HartX), an intensive observation campaign of the international programme REKLIP. Sap flow was measured every 30 min using both radial constant heating (Granier, 1985) and two types of Cermak sap flowmeters installed on 24 trees selected to cover a wide range of the diameter classes of the stand (min 8 cm; max 17.5 cm). Available energy was high during the observation period (5.5 to 6.9 mm.day^–1), and daily cumulated sap flow on a ground area basis varied between 2.0 and 2.7 mm day^–1 depending on climate conditions. Maximum hourly values of sap flow reached 0.33 mm h^–1, i.e., 230 W m^–2.Comparisons of sap flow with water vapour flux as measured with two OPEC (One Propeller Eddy Correlation, University of Arizona) systems showed a time lag between the two methods, sap flow lagging about 90 min behind vapour flux. After taking into account this time lag in the sap flow data set, a good agreement was found between both methods: sap flow = 0.745^* vapour flux,r ² = 0.86. The difference between the two estimates was due to understory transpiration.Canopy conductance (g _c ) was calculated from sap flow measurements using the reverse form of Penman-Monteith equation and climatic data measured 4 m above the canopy. Variations ofg _c were well correlated (r ² = 0.85) with global radiation (R) and vapour pressure deficit (vpd). The quantitative expression forg _c =f (R, vpd) was very similar to that previously found with maritime pine (Pinus pinaster) in the forest of Les Landes, South Western France.With 6 Figures