Metallic Mineral Resources in the Twenty-First Century: II. Constraints on Future Supply

Supplying worldwide demand of metallic raw materials throughout the rest of this century may require 5–10 times the amount of metals contained in known ore deposits. This demand can be met only if mineral deposits containing the required masses of metals, in excess of present day ore reserves, exist in the Earth’s crust. It is, by definition, not known whether or not such mineral deposits exist. On the basis of the statistical distribution of metal tonnages contained in known ore deposits, however, it is possible to place constraints on the size distribution of the deposits that must be discovered in order to meet the expected demand. A nondimensional analysis of the distribution of metal tonnages in deposits of 20 metals shows that most of them follow distributions that, although not strictly lognormal, share important characteristics with a lognormal distribution. Chief among these is the observation that frequency falls off symmetrically and geometrically with deposit size, relative to a median deposit size that is approximately equal to the geometric mean deposit size. An immediate consequence of this behavior is that most of the metal endowment is concentrated in deposits that are several orders of magnitude larger than the median deposit size, and that are much rarer than the most common deposits that cluster around the median deposit size. The analysis reveals remarkable similarities among the statistical distributions of most of the metals included in this study, in particular, the fact that distribution of most metals can be fully described with essentially the same value (about 2–3) of the scale parameter, σ, which is the only parameter needed to describe the behavior of a normalized lognormal variable. This observation makes it possible to derive the following general conclusions, which are applicable to most metals—both scarce and abundant. First, it is unlikely that undiscovered mineral deposits of sizes comparable to those that contain most of the known metal endowment exist in sufficient quantities to supply the expected worldwide demand throughout the rest of this century. Second, if the expected demand is to be met, one must hope that very large deposits, perhaps up to one order of magnitude larger than the largest known deposits, exist in accessible portions of the Earth’s crust, and that these deposits are discovered.     

Lithodiversity and Its Spatial Association with Metallic Mineral Sites,Great Basin of Nevada

Geographical information system (GIS) techniques were used to investigate the spatial association between metallic mineral sites and lithodiversity in Nevada. Mineral site data sets include various size and type subsets of about 5,500 metal-bearing occurrences and deposits. Lithodiversity was calculated by counting the number of unique geological map units within four sizes of square-shaped sample neighborhoods (2.5-by-2.5, 5-by-5, 10-by-10, and 20-by-20 km) on three different scales of geological maps (national, 1:2,500,000; state, 1:500,000; county, 1:250,000). The spatial association between mineral sites and lithodiversity was observed to increase with increasing lithodiversity. This relationship is consistent for (1) both basin-range and range-only regions, (2) four sizes of sample neighborhoods, (3) various mineral site subsets, (4) the three scales of geological maps, and (5) areas not covered by large-scale maps. A map scale of 1:500,000 and lithodiversity sampling neighborhood of 5-by-5 km was determined to best describe the association. Positive associations occurred for areas having >3 geological map units per neighborhood, with the strongest observed at approximately >7 units. Areas in Nevada with more than three geological map units per 5-by-5 km neighborhood contain more mineral sites than would be expected resulting from chance. High lithodiversity likely reflects the occurrence of complex structural, stratigraphic, and intrusive relationships that are thought to control, focus, localize, or expose mineralization. The application of lithodiversity measurements to areas that are not well explored may help delineate regional-scale exploration targets and provide GIS-supported mineral resource assessment and exploration activity another method that makes use of widely available geological map data.     

贵州海相沉积汞矿特征及汞的迁移转化规律研究

采用X射线衍射(XRD)和电子探针显微分析技术(EPMA)对海相沉积汞矿特征进行了研究,分析了汞的迁移转化规律。表征结果表明,矿石类型包括白云石、方解石、钼钨钙矿、朱砂矿、钙钼矿和少量的钋矿;矿石结构致密,呈包裹和裂隙状态;汞主要以氧化矿为主,还有微量的单质汞,含量约为0.15%(以Hg计)。水和土壤环境中的汞易被各种配位体、有机质、无机颗粒物以及粘土矿等吸附形成有机汞(如甲基汞),一部分汞以气态形式进入大气。     

世界遗产空间分布的统计分析

通过计算比例和密度,分析各大洲及全球世界遗产的分布特征。除欧洲和美洲外,各洲世界遗产的数量与面积呈正相关,欧洲、亚洲、非洲、美洲到大洋洲,总的遗产密度依次递减。与人口占全球人口比例相比,欧洲、大洋洲各类遗产较多,亚洲较少,美洲和非洲自然遗产较多。每千万人口总的世界遗产数量从大洋洲、欧洲、美洲、非洲到亚洲依次递减,欧洲、亚洲文化遗产最多,美洲、非洲文化与自然遗产相近,大洋洲自然遗产占优势。统计各纬度带遗产密度,除自然遗产密度低纬最高外,其他遗产密度中纬最高,低纬和高纬次之;各纬度带文化遗产最多,自然遗产居中,双重遗产最少。比较同一大洲同一纬线不同国家的遗产比例,沿海地区自然遗产密度高于内陆,文化遗产密度低于内陆。这些特征与近年世界遗产委员会评选世界遗产侧重某些类型和所在区域的原因相符。     

Three-Dimensional Mineral Potential Mapping for Reducing Multiplicity and Uncertainty: Kaerqueka Polymetallic Deposit,QingHai Province,China

Natural Resources Research - This study focuses on the selection of a method combining simulations of mineralizing processes with three-dimensional (3D) mapping to quantitatively predict locations...     

Metallic Mineral Resources in the Twenty-First Century. I. Historical Extraction Trends and Expected Demand

Industrial, technological, and economic developments depend on the availability of metallic raw materials. As a greater fraction of the Earth’s population has become part of developed economies and as developed societies have become more affluent, the demand on metallic mineral resources has increased. Yet metallic minerals are non-renewable natural resources, the supply of which, even if unknown and potentially large, is finite. An analysis of historical extraction trends for eighteen metals, going back to the year 1900, demonstrates that demand of metallic raw materials has increased as a result of both increase in world population and increase in per-capita consumption. These eighteen metals can be arranged into four distinct groups, for each of which it is possible to identify a consistent pattern of per-capita demand as a function of time. These patterns can, in turn, be explained in terms of the industrial and technological applications, and in some cases conventional uses as well, of the metals in each group. Under the assumption that these patterns will continue into the future, and that world population will grow by no more than about 50% by the year 2100, one can estimate the amount of metallic raw materials that will be required to sustain the world’s economy throughout the twenty-first century. From the present until the year 2100, the world can be expected to require about one order of magnitude more metal than the total amount of metal that fueled technological and economic growth between the age of steam and the present day. For most of the metals considered here, this corresponds to 5–10 times the amount of metal contained in proven ore reserves. The two chief driving factors of this expected demand are growth in per-capita consumption and present-day absolute population numbers. World population is already so large that additional population growth makes only a small contribution to the expected future demand of metallic raw materials. It is not known whether or not the amount of metal required to sustain the world’s economy throughout this century exists in exploitable mineral resources. In the accompanying paper, I show that it is nevertheless possible to make statistical inferences about the size distribution of the mineral deposits that will need to be discovered and developed in order to satisfy the expected demand. Those results neither prove nor disprove that the needed resources exist but can be used to improve our understanding of the challenges facing future supply of metallic raw materials.     

国际河流水资源分配与国际水法

国际河流水资源在各水道国之间如何公平合理的分配，已经日益成为国际关系中的一个重要议题。本文指出，根据联合国宪章等国际基本法，每个主权国家对其领土上的全部水资源享有充分永久主权，这应该作为各国协商解决水争端的法律基础，同时对现行国际水法的适用性及若干国际河流水资源分配案例作出评价。     

An Analysis of the Published Mineral Resource Estimates of the Haji-Gak Iron Deposit,Afghanistan

The Haji-Gak iron deposit of eastern Bamyan Province, eastern Afghanistan, was studied extensively and resource calculations were made in the 1960s by Afghan and Russian geologists. Recalculation of the resource estimates verifies the original estimates for categories A (in-place resources known in detail), B (in-place resources known in moderate detail), and C₁ (in-place resources estimated on sparse data), totaling 110.8 Mt, or about 6% of the resources as being supportable for the methods used in the 1960s. C₂ (based on a loose exploration grid with little data) resources are based on one ore grade from one drill hole, and P₂ (prognosis) resources are based on field observations, field measurements, and an ore grade derived from averaging grades from three better sampled ore bodies. C₂ and P₂ resources are 1,659.1 Mt or about 94% of the total resources in the deposit. The vast P₂ resources have not been drilled or sampled to confirm their extent or quality. The purpose of this article is to independently evaluate the resources of the Haji-Gak iron deposit by using the available geologic and mineral resource information including geologic maps and cross sections, sampling data, and the analog-estimating techniques of the 1960s to determine the size and tenor of the deposit.     

青藏高原矿产资源的分布、形成及开发

通过分析青藏高原矿产资源的分布及储量,探讨青藏高原的成矿作用,指出青藏高原矿产资源极为丰富,能够作为我国"东部经济带"的战略资源接替基地,这对于保证我国矿产资源的可持续供应具有举足轻重的地位.但青藏高原生态环境脆弱、开发成本高、难度大,应坚持科学发展观,加速青藏高原优势矿产资源的勘查和开发,处理好资源开发与环境保护的关系.     

贵州历史自然灾害的时空分布规律及综合区划

依据文献[1]，选取地震、水灾、雹灾和旱灾四种主要灾害为研究对象，采用集中度、集中期和功率谱分析方法对1450－1949年500年间贵州自然灾害进行详细地分析和研究，揭示了贵州历史自然灾害的年际、年内变化规律和空间分布特征，并在此基础上结合人口、工农业的分布情况进行了贵州自然灾害的综合区划工作，旨在为合理布局工农业生产和防灾减灾工作提供灾害环境背景值。     

Modulating the Impacts of Stochastic Uncertainties Linked to Deposit Locations in Data-Driven Predictive Mapping of Mineral Prospectivity

Natural Resources Research - The operation of large-scale ore-forming processes triggers the development of neighboring mineral deposits of the same or related types in a metallogenic province....     

海岸沙丘表面不同部位风沙流中不同粒径沙粒垂向分布的变化

河北昌黎黄金海岸典型沙丘的实地观测表明,风沙流中中沙与细沙输沙量的垂向分布在沙丘表面不同部位的变化并无本质性差别但有一定变化幅度的差异,如绝对输沙量均在迎风坡至丘顶增加、丘顶至背风坡坡脚减小,但中沙输沙量在迎风坡增加的幅度小于细沙、在背风坡减少的幅度大于细沙;相对输沙量在沙丘不同部位的变化趋向类似,但细沙的变化幅度要小于中沙;中沙的垂向分布模式均为幂函数,细沙则表现为指数分布(0~10cm高度内)和幂函数分布(10~30cm高度内)。     

Glacier Distribution in the Alps: Statistical Modelling of Altitude and Aspect

Mass balance of glaciers in mountain areas varies not only with altitude and regional position but also with aspect, gradient, glacier size, glacier type and detailed topographic position. These factors are combined here in models of how glacier altitude varies, tested with data for the Alps edited from the World Glacier Inventory. An overall northward tendency in glacier numbers (toward 005 ± 4°) and lower altitudes (013 ± 5°) is maintained across a range of glacier sizes, types, altitudes and the major divisions of the Alps. Variation with aspect of glacier altitude (and, by implication, of glacier balance) in the Alps is essentially unimodal, and north‐facing glaciers average 220 m lower in middle altitude than south‐facing: 148 m in the Western Alps, 232 m in the West‐central, 252 m in the East‐central, and 268 m in the Eastern Alps. For smaller subdivisions, confidence intervals on estimates are broader and many differences lack statistical significance. Contrasts are greater in the higher massifs, with greater relief, and lower in cloudy, windward areas. There are small windrelated tendencies east of north along the northern and western fringes, but trends across space are weak: position is thus treated by subdivision into districts and groups. Mid‐altitude averages 2891 m overall and varies from 2552 to 3127 m for 27 glacier districts, and from 2124 to 3209 m for 103 glacier groups. Glacier mid‐altitude varies also with glacier form, nourishment, height range and area, which account for over two‐thirds of variance in combined models.     

海岸横向沙脊表面风沙流结构粒度响应的野外观测研究

 风沙流中沙粒粒度组成的垂向变化及不同粒径沙粒的垂向分布特征等是风沙流结构粒度响应的基本研究内容,但一直较缺少野外观测实证证据。在我国海岸沙丘集中分布的河北昌黎黄金海岸,选择规模高大、形态典型的横向沙脊,采用野外梯度风速仪和平口式积沙仪对其顶部风沙流结构的粒度响应进行了野外实地观测。结果表明,海岸沙丘表面风力的分选作用明显,与横向沙脊表面相比风沙流所含沙物质中细沙组分比例增多、粗沙组分比例降低;粒度构成的垂向变化是,在风沙流0—10 cm、10—40 cm和40—60 cm三个高程段内,分别是以中沙为主、中沙与细沙并重和以中沙为主,其中中沙含量在三个高程段内分别呈现出自地表向上逐渐降低、含量比较稳定、向上逐渐升高的垂向变化,细沙则呈现相应的反向变化,随之平均粒径也呈现为自下而上逐步变细、比较稳定到逐渐变粗的变化,但分选系数、偏度和峰态无明显差异;横向沙脊顶部的风沙流结构整体符合指数分布,但不同粒径沙粒的垂向分布特征并不相同,其中粗沙为幂函数分布,细沙遵循指数函数递减,中沙的指数函数和幂函数拟合均有较高相关系数,但在0—40 cm高度内更符合指数函数分布。     

Geostatistical Modeling of Ore Grade Distribution from Geomorphic Characterization in a Laterite Nickel Deposit

Due to growing consumption of nickel (Ni) in a range of industries, the demand for Ni has increased rapidly around the world. This trend requires a more precise estimation of available Ni grade deposits and an identification of factors controlling the grade distribution. To achieve these requirements, this study applies geostatistical techniques to spatial modeling of the Ni grade in a laterite Ni deposit, with reference to geomorphic features such as slope gradient and the thickness of limonite and saprolite zones. The Sorowako area in Sulawesi Island, Indonesia, was chosen as a case study area because it has a representative laterite Ni deposit with large reserves. Chemical content data from drillhole cores at 294 points were used for the analysis. The slope gradient was found to have a remarkable correlation with the thickness of the limonite zone, but there was no correlation between the thickness of the limonite and the saprolite zones above the bedrock. One important feature was a general correlation between the thickness of the saprolite zone and the maximum Ni grade in this zone: the grade increases with the thickness of the zone. Co-kriging was adopted to incorporate this correlation into estimating the maximum Ni grade in the saprolite zone. As a result, the maximum Ni grade in the saprolite zone tends to be high mainly in areas of slight slope. The Ni accumulation at this topographic feature probably originates from deep weathering by groundwater infiltrating through well-developed rock fractures.     

金属锂提取工艺比较分析

简述了金属锂的应用以及熔盐电解法和真空热还原法提取金属锂的技术特点,评述了两种方法的优缺点并提出了改进方法,对金属锂冶炼的未来发展进行了展望。     

Categorization of Mineral Resources Based on Different Geostatistical Simulation Algorithms: A Case Study from an Iron Ore Deposit

Mineral resource classification plays an important role in the downstream activities of a mining project. Spatial modeling of the grade variability in a deposit directly impacts the evaluation of recovery functions, such as the tonnage, metal quantity and mean grade above cutoffs. The use of geostatistical simulations for this purpose is becoming popular among practitioners because they produce statistical parameters of the sample dataset in cases of global distribution (e.g., histograms) and local distribution (e.g., variograms). Conditional simulations can also be assessed to quantify the uncertainty within the blocks. In this sense, mineral resource classification based on obtained realizations leads to the likely computation of reliable recovery functions, showing the worst and best scenarios. However, applying the proper geostatistical (co)-simulation algorithms is critical in the case of modeling variables with strong cross-correlation structures. In this context, enhanced approaches such as projection pursuit multivariate transforms (PPMTs) are highly desirable. In this paper, the mineral resources in an iron ore deposit are computed and categorized employing the PPMT method, and then, the outputs are compared with conventional (co)-simulation methods for the reproduction of statistical parameters and for the calculation of tonnage at different levels of cutoff grades. The results show that the PPMT outperforms conventional (co)-simulation approaches not only in terms of local and global cross-correlation reproductions between two underlying grades (Fe and Al₂O₃) in this iron deposit but also in terms of mineral resource categories according to the Joint Ore Reserves Committee standard.

     

上海春季沙尘与非沙尘天气大气颗粒物粒度组成与矿物成分

上海春季典型沙尘天气的湿降尘和非沙尘天气总悬浮颗粒物、自然降尘的粒度分析结果表明,沙尘天气湿降尘几乎全部由<63 μm的颗粒组成（99.45%）,其中10~50 μm、5~10 μm和<5μm的含量分别占49.02%、21.75%和27.14%,平均粒径为13.57 μm,分选差。这一粒度特征与马兰黄土和下蜀黄土很相似。非沙尘天气总悬浮颗粒物的粒度分布范围和均值与湿降尘很接近,自然降尘颗粒则明显较粗。矿物X—衍射物相及半定量分析结果表明,上述三种大气颗粒物都由粘土矿物、石英、钾长石、斜长石、方解石、白云石、石膏、角闪石等组成,所不同的是湿降尘中含有较多来自西北干旱半干旱区远源输入的矿物颗粒;而非沙尘天气总悬浮颗粒物中石膏含量较高（达14.59%）,推测为溶解在大气中的气态污染物 SO2与方解石作用形成的二次污染颗粒。     

Ownership and Spatial Distribution of Eagle Ford Mineral Wealth in Live Oak County,Texas

U.S. unconventional hydrocarbon production is a driver of economic growth, but mineral wealth ownership is poorly understood and shrouded in “local wealth” mythology that claims royalties from hydrocarbons mostly benefit people who live near sites of production. Mineral property tax appraisals, as proxies for mineral wealth from Live Oak County, a representative Eagle Ford Shale county in Texas, show that 96 percent of assessed mineral wealth concentrates among energy firms and individuals in Texas metropolitan regions; 1.95 percent of mineral wealth remains “local” to the production county, challenging local wealth myths. Deviating from nation-state scalar approaches, local and regional spatial studies of other energy regions might reveal similar wealth distributions, enabling generalizations about hydrocarbon production economic outcomes.