中国海外投资项目的凑组模式研究——以中老铁路为例

“一带一路”倡议提出以来,中国海外项目投资的广度、深度及力度都在不断拓展。凑组理论将所有事物视为复杂关系的动态演变,因而从发展过程及成员关系的角度探究不同海外投资项目的凑组模式,能解构项目凑组中的复杂性并减少不确定性,对于提高项目的风险规避能力、运营能力和盈利能力具有十分重要的意义。基于凑组理论,本文构建中国海外投资项目凑组的理论框架,并以中老铁路为例解析凑组模式。研究表明：① 海外投资项目可以通过技术、产业和市场等价值关联进行凑组,因而中国企业的海外投资可以采用“以一带多,核心集聚”的方式。② 海外投资项目的类型和领域越多样越广泛,项目凑组越完整越稳定。③ 凑组所形成的空间形态取决于项目的空间分布与项目间的价值关系,中老铁路表现为“走廊”式空间形态。④ 中老铁路具备形成项目凑组的条件,但后期技术需求的不确定及相关产业下游项目投资的缺乏,使中老铁路建设带来的延伸市场缺乏项目支撑。     

轨道交通对其沿线商品住宅价格的影响分析——以北京地铁5号线为例

以北京地铁5 号线为例,研究了地铁沿线两侧2 km范围内,轨道交通对其沿线商品住宅价格的影响程度。① 通过分析商品住宅价格特性和影响因素,建立了轨道交通沿线商品住宅价格的影响因素体系,包括商品住宅项目距最近地铁站的最短路径距离、距市级商服中心距离、周边1 km内公交站点数、中小学及项目容积率、物业类型等10 个因素;② 通过显著性检验,重点中小学、普通中小学、公园3 个变量对商品住宅的价格影响很小,予以剔除后,构建了影响商品住宅价格的多元回归分析模型;③ 将采集到的193 个项目的有效样本进行运算分析,研究结果表明轨道交通对沿线商品住宅价格的影响最大,并随距轨道交通距离的增加,住宅价格呈指数衰减,至2 km以后,对住宅价格影响不显著。针对研究结果,建议地铁沿线土地利用强度和住宅价格确定时,要充分考虑轨道交通的影响。     

使用跳跃扩散模型的咖啡价格期权定价（英文）

这篇文章旨在构建一个期权定价模型以减少与埃塞俄比亚咖啡价格波动相关的风险。我们使用从埃塞俄比亚商品交易所(ECX)获得的2011年5月31日至2018年3月30日期间记录的埃塞俄比亚每日(WSDA3)咖啡价格来分析其咖啡价格的波动。本文使用跳跃扩散模型对咖啡价格进行建模和期权定价,应用最大似然法估计模型参数,使用均方根误差(RMSE)来对模型进行验证。结果表明Merton和双指数跳跃扩散模型的RMSE值分别为0.1093和0.0783,模型模拟结果与实际数据非常吻合,说明采用蒙特卡罗技术得到的WSDA3价格来对期权定价时,双指数跳跃扩散模型比Merton模型更为有效。     

Mapping the Bonanza: Geographies of Mining Investment in an Era of Neoliberal Reform*

Geographic analyses of how national policies of economic liberalization influence global patterns of economic activity often draw their conclusions from studies of the paradigmatic sectors of manufacturing and, to a lesser extent, services. There is, by contrast, relatively little work examining how neoliberal policy reforms in the developing world may be driving changes in the geography of primary sector (i.e., extractive) activities at the global scale. This article presents and analyzes new data on direct investment in the international mining industry. It reports methods and results from a research project to systematically map and evaluate changes in the commodity mix and geographical spread of mining‐related investment in the world economy since 1990. It confirms and quantifies what was hitherto anecdotal evidence of a geographic shift in investment during the 1990s away from mature targets toward a small number of “rising stars” in the developing world, following the adoption in many countries of neoliberal economic policies from the mid‐1980s onward. However, the findings challenge conventional interpretations of this shift as an investment “bonanza” in the periphery and highlight how recent investment trends are highly specific in geographical scope, concentrated within a few commodities, and how the allocation of investment between established and emerging targets is variable over both time and space.     

A Royalty Revenue Forecast Model for Louisiana

Louisiana receives royalty revenue when minerals are produced on state-owned lands and water bottoms, federal properties within the state, and offshore fields underlying federal and state jurisdiction within 3–6 nautical miles from the coastline. Royalty revenue on oil and gas production has averaged $465 million per year and has contributed 3–7% of the state general revenue over the past decade. The purpose of this article is to develop a royalty revenue forecast model to assist in state budgeting and planning purposes. Producing fields are evaluated within a probabilistic framework to capture the uncertainty associated with future capital outlays and operational changes, and a discovery model is used to generate production from fields expected to be discovered in the future. The forecasts are combined with commodity price scenarios and royalty rate assumptions to generate a royalty revenue outlook for the state. We estimate that cumulative royalty revenue during 2012–2017 will range from $704 million to $1,408 million for oil production and from $286 million to $1,145 million for gas production for commodity prices of 60–120 $/bbl and 2–8 $/Mcf. At $80/bbl and $4/Mcf, cumulative royalty receipts from 2012 to 2017 are estimated at $1,510 million.     

Mining for change? Youth livelihoods and extractive industry investment in Sierra Leone

Over the past two decades, neoliberal reforms, soaring commodity prices and heightened global resource demands have led to significant growth in extractive industry investment across sub-Saharan Africa. A surge of investment has triggered a variety of responses in mineral-rich communities – from outright rejection, to protest over labour conditions, to acceptance in anticipation of gainful employment. Drawing on recent research carried out in Kono District in Sierra Leone, this article critically explores these contrasting responses to mining activities, by focussing on how youth perceive and respond to extractive industry expansion. In doing so, the paper broadens understanding of why youth perceptions of mining investment differ, and illuminates the various factors underlying a diverse range of responses to the expansion of extractive industries. The focus on youth and its heterogeneity as a social category has important policy implications and the paper makes a contribution to understanding the dynamics and diversity of youth livelihood strategies in resource rich developing countries. In making a distinction between autonomous spaces of community-led development 'from below' and corporate controlled spaces of development 'from above', the article reflects on how youth perceptions of extractive industry expansion may also be influencing the ways in which mining companies understand and fashion their business and social responsibility strategies.     

黄河下游引黄灌区水价与水资源调控*

40多年来,我国水利建设取得了巨大成就,但是,在以往的计划经济条件下,水利事业普遍存在着“重建轻管”的问题,延续至今,尚未妥善解决,从而导致一些地区水资源的极度浪费及出现不良的环境后效。水资源管理是水资源合理开发利用的基本保证,它涉及到政策、法律、体制、经济及现代科学技术,是一个跨部门、跨学科的系统工程。目前,我国在水资源管理中最突出的问题是尚未完全纳入市场经济的轨道,水价远低于供水成本,不能发挥水费征收的经济杠杆作用,遏制水资源的浪费及合理地调控地表水与地下水资源,同时,偏低的水价也使供水部门缺乏足够的资金进行工程运营与维修,造成工程老化,降低供水效率^[1].黄河下游灌区,位于豫鲁两省境内,灌溉面积约2800万亩(186.6×10⁴hm²),多年平均引水量在100×10⁸m³左右,该灌区自50年代末引黄灌溉以来,上述问题表现尤为突出。随着黄河上、中游地区的发展,用水量增加,使黄河下游灌区的用水矛盾越来越突出。此文试图以此为典型,分析供水成本的构成、现行水价确定中存在的问题及其对水资源调控的影响,供水价问题的深入研究及水价政策的制定参考。     

中国企业投资东南亚国家的影响因素分析——基于企业所有权差异的视角

以中国企业2005~2015年对东南亚直接投资的项目作为研究样本,分析国有企业和民营企业在东南亚直接投资的国家选择和影响因素。研究表明,国有企业不回避政治风险较高的国家,倾向于开拓新的国家市场;相反,民营企业倾向投资政治风险低的国家,投资与中国贸易联系紧密、相对市场规模较大以及劳动力成本较低的国家。基于国有企业和民营企业对东南亚直接投资影响因素的差异,为中国对东南亚直接投资提出政策建议。     

GIS应用项目可行性研究初探

总结GIS应用项目可行性研究的基本理念、主要内容和工作步骤,认为全面的GIS项目可行性研究是在战略层次上分析组织环境,在战术层次上全面评估技术、财务、组织与实施方面的可行性,并撰写研究报告、论证报告建议。技术可行性分析包括产品的成熟程度评估、系统集成方案复杂程度评估和招聘技术人员的难易程度评估;财务可行性分析是识别项目成本和收益的类别和细目、估算成本并预期收益、计算财务指标;组织与实施可行性分析是组织对组织变革的适应性、接受程度做出判断。建议采用案例研究的方法,总结国内可行性研究的经验与教训,编制更实用的研究指南。     

Community cooperation with natural flood management: a case study in the Scottish Borders

The cooperation of communities and landowners in the upper catchment is vital for the successful implementation of natural flood management (NFM) projects as few incentives are in place to reward them to host such projects. The aim of this paper is to initiate an exploration of the issues that affect a community's decision to cooperate. The results of a case study in Scotland show that willingness to cooperate is affected by concern about alternative flood management techniques, a sense of responsibility to help connected communities at risk of flooding and the expectation of beneficial impacts from the project. Indeed, these issues appeared to over-ride the hostility generated towards the project as a result of poor communication and engagement with the community from organisations associated with the proposed project. The results of the research suggest that if NFM projects are to proliferate, close attention must be paid to community attitudes towards flood management and related communities at risk, and that NFM projects must be developed and implemented according to well-established principles of public participation.     

基于模糊故障树法的深基坑支护工程项目风险评估

深基坑工程施工中安全事故的发生给社会及施工企业带来了不良影响和巨大的经济损失,如何减少深基坑工程安全事故发生率,降低工程风险是一个值得研究的问题。本文通过将模糊理论与故障树分析方法相结合,建立了基于模糊故障树法的深基坑支护工程项目风险评估模型,克服了传统故障树方法忽略底事件发生概率的不确定性这一缺陷。通过对某深基坑工程实例的计算分析,说明了本文所建立的模型在深基坑工程风险评估中具有较好的理论价值与实际应用价值。     

时空压缩下的中国乡村空间生产——以广州市域乡村投资为例

党的十九大报告提出“乡村振兴”战略,人文地理学者的角色是从空间和区域的角度参与各类乡村振兴实践和思考。马克思主义地理学代表人物大卫·哈维指出,“时空压缩”现象加剧了资本积累的危机,要消除危机,必须从生产方式和生产关系的革命入手。本文以2015-2017年广州市企业投资中的乡村项目为例,分析哪些项目是消除区域发展两级分化、抵制资本纯粹追逐利润的,从而为政府重点鼓励何类项目提供依据。本文采用经验主义的数据统计分析方法,主要研究结论为：①从空间分布上看,2015-2017年企业投资在广州乡村的项目大部分是按照“纯粹”市场原则分布的,即投资项目以近郊为主,高投资额的投资项目也集中在近郊,这种分布是“时空压缩”的结果。②2015-2017年少部分投资在广州乡村的项目并非“纯粹”追求利润,它们主要是为改变乡村生活的环境质量,而非生产经营性的、“空间修复”型的项目,更能体现人们对幸福生活本质理解的积极性项目。     

Forecasting Copper Prices Using Hybrid Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System and Genetic Algorithms

Natural Resources Research - An accurate forecasting model for the price volatility of minerals plays a vital role in future investments and decisions for mining projects and related companies. In...     

Contribution of REDD+ payments to the economy of rural households in Nepal

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) is a global climate change mitigation strategy. Under the proposed REDD+ framework, financial incentives are provided, primarily to developing countries, for forest conservation to reduce carbon emissions. Projects labelled as REDD are being implemented in a wide variety of settings in different countries. Developing an effective benefit-distribution mechanism between implementing agencies and local communities is a key challenge for the implementation of REDD+. We examined whether the REDD+ payment mechanism adopted in a REDD+ pilot project in Nepal is beneficial to the local forest users. We estimated economic contribution of the REDD+ payments to the total household income, calculated the role of payment in reducing income inequality at the household level and examined socio-economic heterogeneity represented by wealth and ethnicity among the payment recipient households. REDD+ payment provided economic benefits to the poorest households but the economic contribution of the payment to the household economy is very nominal and is insufficient to invest in livelihood enhancement activities. REDD+ payment to some extent helps to reduce income inequality among the households. Social heterogeneity of a household overshadowed household wealth status during the payment distribution among the sampled households creating social tension. Therefore, either alternative payment models or investment in community projects might yield better outcomes.     

当代发达国家对发展中国家的新掠夺—东南亚金融危机的再思考

二战以来,随着殖地民的纷纷独立,商品贸易成为国际经济联系的主要形,发达国家主要通过不平等的价格体系来剥削发展中国家,随着“后工业化”的到来,布雷顿森林体系的解体,国际垄断资本的跨国直接投资和投机成为剥削发展中国家的重要形式。     

采煤沉陷湖人工湿地对周边土地价格的溢出效应研究——以徐州市九里湖湿地为例

采煤沉陷湖由采煤地表沉陷经常年积水而形成,把采煤沉陷湖改造为人工湿地是近年来中国尝试的一种生态修复途径。由于采煤沉陷湖人工湿地对区域微观环境改良作用明显,从而对周边土地价格产生溢出效应。以平原高潜水位地区采煤沉陷湖人工湿地——九里湖湿地为研究案例,以商业和住宅用地为研究对象,分别采集九里湖湿地生态修复前后相同评估基准日的区域地价样点数据,通过Kriging空间插值生成价格曲面,以地统计和GIS栅格计算的方法测度了九里湖湿地对周边土地价格的溢出效应。研究表明,越接近九里湖湿地,土地价格涨幅越高,且明显高于九里湖湿地所在区域土地价格的平均涨幅,显示出九里湖湿地对周边土地价格产生了明显的溢出效应。经进一步测算得出,九里湖湿地对周边商业、住宅用地价格的溢出效应影响范围分别为21.07 km²和20.76 km²,影响强度分别为135.76元/m²、182.39元/m²。把溢出效应影响范围和城市规划用地进行套合,通过栅格计算得出,研究期间九里湖湿地对周边商业、住宅用地价格的溢出效应价值分别为20 225.64万元、20 507.09万元,其溢出效应的价值总量（ΔSE）为40 732.73万元。     

Analysis of Environmental Bonding System for Oil and Gas Projects

This paper is concerned with potential financial impacts of different bonding instruments on oil and gas projects. An algorithm was prepared in order to assist decision makers, both regulators and industry, evaluate potential Net Present Value (NPV) impacts of financial instruments used to satisfy bonding requirements. Instrument option is the main variable for the proposed model. The user will be able to select between four instruments (Letters of Credit, Prepaid Collateral Closure Accounts, Leasing Specific Closure Accounts, and Ex-post Insurance Policies). This study includes simulations for three producing fields of different economically recoverable reserves (9 MMbbl, 53 MMbbl, and 148 MMbbl⁵), where four financial instruments, in addition to a no instrument scenario, are tested under a proposed bonding regime. Sensitivity analysis of NPV and Government Take (GT) value indicate ex-post insurance policies and letters of credit cause fewer impacts yielding significantly better payoffs. Preliminary simulations also confirm that small projects, around 9 MMbbl, can be severely affected when collateral account instruments are used.     

A New Semi-greedy Approach to Enhance Drillhole Planning

In advanced exploration projects or operating mines, the process of allocating capital for infill drilling programs is a significant and recurrent challenge. Within a large company, the different mine sites and projects compete for the available funds for drilling. To maximize a project’s value to its company, a drillhole location optimizer can be used as an objective tool to compare drilling campaigns. The fast semi-greedy optimizer presented here can allow for the obtention of close to optimal solutions to the coverage problem with up to three orders of magnitude less computing time needed than with integer programming. The heuristic approach is flexible as it allows dynamic updating of block values once new drillholes are selected in the solution, as opposed to existing methods based on static block values. The block values used for optimization incorporate kriging estimate and variance, estimate of indicator at cutoff grade and distances to existing or newly selected drillholes. The heuristic approach tends to locate new drillholes within the maximum risk areas, i.e., within less informed zones predicted as being ore zones. Applied to different deposits, it enables, after suitable normalization, comparison of different drilling campaigns and allocation of budgets accordingly.

     

制度与文化对嵌入式技术海外转移的影响——以蒙内铁路为例

中国与东道国之间制度与文化上的差异,已经成为中国企业“走出去”关注的重点,也是推动“一带一路”建设向高质量发展转变必须考虑的重要因素。现代化铁路项目具有“自然垄断”、投资大、涉及地域广的特点,其建设对运营制度与文化的依赖性强,属于一种典型的变革性项目和嵌入式技术转移。“一带一路”沿线国家制度建设相对薄弱,与中国文化差异较大,且往往不具备铁路运营技术与能力,因此中国铁路在“走出去”的过程中,必须从设计—建设—运营乃至投融资进行全链条考虑,并将铁路项目作为“技术—制度—文化”复合体进行培育,即通过制度保障、文化相互适应以及技术标准、管理模式、产业链条的属地化管理,来保障项目的成功运营。蒙内铁路是中国铁路“走出去”较为成功的案例,本文通过实地调研,总结了“技术—制度—文化”复合体海外发展模式,从而为推动海外项目建设与运营成功、“一带一路”建设向高质量发展提供借鉴意义。