中国地级及以上城市GDP含金量时空分异格局

利用ESDA-GIS、空间变异函数、重心迁移与趋势面分析等方法,对2001年和2011年全国343个地级及以上城市GDP含金量的空间分异格局、总体趋势、空间异质性和相关性进行研究。结果表明：中国地级单元GDP含金量空间分异显著,呈现出西部>东部>中部、北方>南方>中部的趋势,具有全局正相关关系。10 a间,GDP含金量的重心向东南方向迁移;黄河以北和长江以南区域的含金量显著减小,而东部沿海和西部沿边地带的含金量显著扩大;GDP含金量的冷点区大幅扩张而热点区大幅收缩。产业结构、居民收入来源、城镇化水平、人力资本存量和初次分配结构是影响GDP含金量的主要因素。     

中国城市群经济增长质量与数量协调关系的时空演化与机理

以中国“十三五”规划纲要提及的19个城市群为研究对象,分别从经济效率、经济结构、经济稳定性、经济发展潜力、成果分配、资源环境、民生福利7个维度刻画城市群经济增长质量,从GDP增长率和人均GDP两个维度刻画经济增长数量以构建综合指标体系,运用熵值法、耦合协调模型、地理探测器等方法,剖析2006—2018年中国城市群经济增长质量与数量的耦合协调关系及其相互作用机理,研究结果表明：① 总体协调水平上,中国城市群经济增长质量与数量的协调度较低,且呈下降趋势;② 协调度空间格局上,经济增长质量与增长数量、增长速度的空间格局呈现“东高西低”的趋势,且保持相对稳定,但经济增长质量与增长规模的协调度空间格局差异较大;③ 协调类型上,“数量滞后”型呈零星分布,“规模滞后”型向中西部集聚,“速度滞后”型向东北拓展,“质量滞后”型表现出多样性特征;④ 经济增长质量与规模、速度的协调关系表现出不一致的特征;⑤ 相互协调机理分析发现,民生福利、经济发展潜力、人均GDP对中国城市群经济增长质量与数量协调水平的提升具有显著影响。⑥ 针对不同协调类型的城市群应分别采取相应举措以助力中国城市群经济高质量发展。     

Natural capital accounting in Xi’an City of western China during 1995–2011

As one of the most important metropolitan areas in China, Xi＇an City plays a leading role in the development of the western regions. To impede the decision and policy prefer- ences for environmental and ecological factors, this paper took account of the natural capital depletion of Xi＇an City during 1995-2011, considered in terms of constant 1990 price levels. The results are as follows. （1） Natural capital depletion in Xi＇an City consistently increased from1995 to 2011, increasing from 14.31x108 yuan to 42.28x108 yuan, with an average an- nual growth rate of 12.22%. The primary component of natural capital depletion in Xi＇an City was the cost associated with fossil fuel resource depletion, while the cost associated with ecological services contributed the least to the total cost. （2） During 1995-2011, the proportion of natural capital depletion to Xi＇an City in Yanta and Lianhu districts dropped, whereas in counties such as Gaoling County, Chang＇an District and Lintong District, it increased. In 2011, the proportion of natural capital depletion varied between the different counties： Yanta District （15.75%）, Weiyang District and Lianhu District （10%-15%）, Huxian County, Xincheng District, Beiling District, Chang＇an District, Baqiao District, and Gaoling County （5%-10%）, and in Lintong District, Lantian County, Zhouzhi County and Yanliang District, it was 〈5%. （3） The spatial pattern of natural capital depletion varied with different perspectives, for example, from a total value perspective, a nuclear pattern around the administrative center of Xi＇an City was evident, whereas from a density per capita of natural capital depletion perspective, a bi-nuclear spatial distribution visible in 1995 had become a poly-nuclear distribution by 2011. Conversely, from a density per hectare perspective, a ＂core-edge＂ pattern characterized by three circles was observed. （4） The natural capital depletion relative to GDP curve was in accordance with the environmental Kuznets curve, while the proportion of natural capital de- pletion to GDP was the highest in circle III and the lowest in circle I.     

新疆绿色GDP的核算与分析

根据新疆现有的统计和环境监测数据,针对新疆重要的资源环境问题,提出了新疆的绿色GDP(GGDP)核算模式,并对1996-2004年期间新疆的GGDP进行了核算与分析,结果是：GGDP各年度分别在558．38～1636．74亿元之间,GGDP/GDP(%)各年度分别在61．22%～84．05%亿元之间；在1996年和2000年,新疆的耕地、林地、草地面积的很大变化,致使GGDP/ GDP产生了较大的变化,分别是61．22%和84．05%,其他年度影响不大；能源矿成本/GDP(%)处于17．73%～26．13%之间,新疆GGDP核算的其他指标占GDP比重较小；新疆的经济是资源主导型经济,新疆国民经济在快速增长的同时给资源环境带来了较大的消耗。     

上海的GDP一般增长核算与绿色GDP核算

本文引用Barro的增长核算模型和Asheim的绿色GDP核算模型,对上海的经济增长开展了核算研究。研究发现:1)在改革开放之前,上海的经济增长基本上由资本投入、人力资源的有效投入和劳动力投入支持。改革开放以后经济增长得益于技术进步,但是税收政策干扰了这种增长。2)上海市绿色NNP值低于GDP值,GDP值是绿色NNP值的2⁴倍,在20世纪60、70、80年代一直都维持在3倍以上。目前,上海市的GDP与绿色NNP之间的差距缩小到了2倍左右,说明人们对环境污染和资源耗损问题的关注,已体现到上海市的经济发展中。3)在目前阶段,绿色GDP不适合单独作为经济发展的度量指标,但是可以作为衡量经济发展对环境的影响及对资源的损耗和对GDP指标不足的重要补充。     

尼日利亚经济增长机制和问题研究——基于荷兰病理论的分析

尼日利亚经济增长速度与石油市场盛衰息息相关,70年代石油产业繁荣时期和1999年以来初级产品超级周期中增长迅速,而80和90年代石油产业萧条时期则增长缓慢甚至出现负增长。2014年4月尼日利亚宣布调整统计基准年,GDP达5099亿美元,超越南非成为非洲最大经济体,两国经济实力的此消彼长正在改变非洲经济格局和投资版图。本文基于1970-2013年尼日利亚经济数据,分析了尼日利亚“荷兰病”主要症状,包括过度依赖石油产业,严重去工业化和去农业化,储蓄不足,投资效率低下,滋生财富集中、腐败、寻租、贫困化增长、基础设施不足、极端组织猖獗等多重严重社会问题。尼日利亚破解“荷兰病”的对策在于推动经济多元化,发展农业、劳动密集型制造业、炼油等石油行业下游产业,加大基础设施和人力资源投资,提升制度质量和执行效率。     

Nonprofit Foundations and Grassroots Organizing: Reshaping Urban Governance

Collaborative urban governance has increased the role of community organizations in local decision-making processes. These organizations need financial resources in order to participate in urban governance. In this article, I examine the impact of foundation grants on the relationships and agendas of four community organizations in one neighborhood in St. Paul, Minnesota. Drawing on interviews, observations of organizations, and archival research, I demonstrate that in the 1990s, nonprofit foundations had a significant impact on the formation of new organizations and on their agendas in the neighborhood. Foundations are, therefore, an important player in urban governance, shaping a “neighborhood policy regime.”     

北方半干旱地区水资源利用“零增长”研究——以内蒙古自治区通辽市为例

水资源是制约区域发展特别是半干旱地区发展的决定性资源因素,合理配置有限水资源、实现水资源需求的"零增长"是促进半干旱地区可持续发展的关键。选取典型半干旱地区——内蒙古通辽市为案例地,利用系统动力学方法,研究其水资源的配置方式,找寻区域经济发展水资源需求"零增长"的时间节点,确定与之相对应的产业结构特点和发展趋势,为政府制定合理的经济社会发展政策提供理论参考。研究表明:通辽市社会经济发展将在2018年前后达到约束型的水资源"零增长";"三产引领发展模式"是有利于实现区域可持续发展的最优模式;"一产现代化发展模式"是符合通辽市社会经济基础的最可能模式。     

The Permeable City: Toronto's Spatial Shift at the Turn of the Millennium

This article presents an analysis of the relationship between urban governance restructuring, and global, national, and local action through a case study of the Toronto city‐region. The Toronto city‐region recently underwent a massive reorganization of its governance structures, functions, and jurisdictional boundaries. This restructuring raises questions about why these changes occurred at this particular juncture in the region's history. Why did the city that had always been known in the academic and political discourse as the “city that works” stop “working”? What global and national forces might have accounted for such a radical restructuring? And what did local action contribute? These questions are explored in both historical and contemporary contexts by drawing on insights from regulation theory, urban regime theory, and an analysis of Canada's changing fiscal federalism. This approach informs the role that institutions — regardless of their origin or territorial scope — play in sustaining a local accumulation system, and how this “local” accumulation grounds a national regulatory mode and regime of accumulation. The approach also explores the relationship between regime and regulation theories in the context of policy formation and institution building. The study concludes that the current policy set is incapable of resolving the region's crisis tendencies. Notwithstanding external forces, the current policy set is not inevitable. Globalization does not predetermine all spatial‐economic outcomes.     

Nonprofit Foundations and Grassroots Organizing: Reshaping Urban Governance*

Collaborative urban governance has increased the role of community organizations in local decision‐making processes. These organizations need financial resources in order to participate in urban governance. In this article, I examine the impact of foundation grants on the relationships and agendas of four community organizations in one neighborhood in St. Paul, Minnesota. Drawing on interviews, observations of organizations, and archival research, I demonstrate that in the 1990s, nonprofit foundations had a significant impact on the formation of new organizations and on their agendas in the neighborhood. Foundations are, therefore, an important player in urban governance, shaping a “neighborhood policy regime.”     

福建省城市扩张与经济增长的互动关系研究

基于2000~2015年福建省9个设区市的城市建成区面积与非农GDP的历史数据,根据生态位理论将9个设区市分为4个等级,结合库兹涅兹曲线分析、协整检验及Granger因果关系分析、脱钩分析3种方法对不同等级城市之间的城市扩张和经济发展的互动关系进行了研究。研究表明:福建省城市生态位呈现东高西低,南高北低的空间格局;9个设区市均符合广义的库兹涅兹曲线关系,但只有高生态位城市全部符合倒“U”型曲线关系;福建省多数城市用地扩张与经济增长之间的Granger因果关系受区位、政策和决策等因素影响并不明显;福建省9个设区市的脱钩关系主要呈现为增长负脱钩、弱脱钩、强脱钩和增长连接4类,绝大多数城市多数时期以弱脱钩状态为主。     

全面二孩背景下中国省际人口迁移格局预测及城镇化效应

采用第六次中国人口普查数据,基于全面二孩实施背景,预测未来中国与省际城乡人口规模以及省际人口迁移规模;采用2010年人口数据和2020年预测人口数据,从对比视角分析了中国省际人口迁移格局变化及其对城镇化发展的影响。研究发现：① 城乡全面放开二孩政策不会带来区域人口数量的剧烈反弹;② 综合考虑省际人口迁移方向与强度,将中国31个省份划分为4种类型;③ 省际人口迁移促进了城镇化率的提高及省际差异的缩小,对2010~2020年中国城镇化率的增加的贡献占到了30.77%。     

中国工业生态效率时空分异特征及其影响因素解析

基于2000-2016年中国工业数据,构建工业生态效率投入产出指标体系,测度不同区域的工业生态效率,构建不同空间权重矩阵,对空间分异特征进行解析,最后研究了工业生态效率影响因素的空间效应。结果如下：① 中国工业生态效率均值呈现出波动趋势,在2016年达到最大值; ② 区域之间差距明显,绝对差异和相对差异也在2016年最大,空间分布上逐渐集中,逐渐形成了从东南向西北递减的阶梯状空间分布特征; ③ 工业生态效率存在着明显的空间集聚性,并有高高集聚和低低集聚的空间俱乐部现象; ④ 财政分权的直接效应值最高,对外开放和固定资产是抑制本地区工业生态效率提升的主要因素,科技创新、财政分权能够促进邻近区域工业生态效率的提升,产业集聚、对外开放不利于邻近地区工业生态效率的改善。     

水资源经济政策CGE 模型及在北京市的应用

水资源经济政策的研究对于解决突出的水问题具有重要意义,本文采用2002 年北京市投入产出表和有关 的水资源公报等数据,通过单列水行业和废污水行业建立了基于一般均衡理论的水资源经济CGE(Computable General Equilibrium)模型和相应的42×53 多部门水资源投入产出表,利用GEMPACK 软件包,对北京市水资源经济 政策进行了模拟和分析。模拟显示,当水价增加10%时,行业产出和销售量变化呈现不同的特点和变动趋势;当水 量增加10%时,造成行业产出的变化和销售量的变动也值得深虑。该成果可为制定和实施水资源政策提供决策参 考及模拟平台。     

China’s different spatial patterns of population growth based on the “Hu Line”

The “Hu Line” has been regarded as one of the greatest geographical discoveries in China because it reveals the significant spatial relationship between human activity and natural environment. The spatial evolution of population on both sides of the “Hu Line” has had important implications for both urbanization and regional development and has attracted widespread attention during the dramatic economic and social changes since the implementation of reform and opening-up policy in China in 1978. Using Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques, this paper studied the stability of the “Hu Line” and the spatial patterns of population growth on each side by constructing a spatial database of China’s census data from 1982 to 2010. The findings are as follows: (1) In the last 30 years, the “Hu Line” has remained relatively stable, but a new tendency of population change has begun to emerge. The population ratio either side, namely, the southeast half (SEH) and the northwest half (NWH), of the “Hu Line” remains at roughly 94:6 (SHE: NWH). Noteworthy, the proportion of population in the SEH of the “Hu Line” has been decreasing slightly, while that in the NWH has been increasing slightly, as the latter has benefited from its higher rate of natural population growth. (2) The spatial patterns of population growth on both sides of the “Hu Line” were quite different. The degree of population concentration in the SEH increased faster than the NWH. Regions with a negative population growth rate have rapidly expanded; these were mainly located in the south of the “Qinling Mountains-Huaihe River belt” and northeastern China. Meanwhile, regions with a fast population growth rate were mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin metropolitan area. Thus, the spatial pattern of population growth in the SEH presented a concentration pattern that could be called “Matthew effect pattern”. (3) The spatial pattern of population growth in the NWH could be regarded as the “Relative Balance pattern.” In the NWH, the population growth rate was positive and the degree of population concentration was very low. There were many minority populations located in the NWH that usually lived in a dispersed pattern but had a higher rate of natural population growth due to the preferential population policy. There were also some regions with a negative rate of population growth in the NWH, which were mainly located close to the “Hu Line” and the Ancient Silk Road. (4) In the future, the spatial patterns of population growth on both sides of the “Hu Line” may continue to evolve. For the SEH, the capacity to attract more people to small and medium-sized cities and towns should be enhanced. For the NWH, the emphasis should be placed on promoting urbanization and enhancing population agglomeration in its major cities.     

近20年来我国区域发展政策及其效果的对比研究

在对近 2 0年来我国区域发展政策进行简要回顾的基础上 ,文中利用计量经济学模型方法和有关统计数据 ,对我国对外开放这一区域发展政策对东部沿海地区和中西部地区的经济发展作用进行了定量研究 ,首次从量的方面探讨了对外开放政策对东部和中西部地区经济发展的作用效果及其差异。通过计量经济模型模拟计算 ,2 0世纪 80年代初至 1 999年对外开放政策对我国东部沿海地区GDP的直接作用率达到 2 1 39% ,使其相应的GDP年增长速度由9 1 %提高到 1 0 2 4 % ,提高了 1 1 4个百分点。而对于我国中西部地区 ,由于对外开放较晚 ,对外开放政策的力度远不如东部沿海地区的大 ,从 90年代初期开始的沿江、沿边对外开放政策对我国中西部地区GDP的直接作用率为 4 2 4 % ,仅为前者的 2 0 %左右 ,使其相应的GDP年增长速度也仅由 8 96 %提高到 9 2 7% ,仅提高 0 31个百分点 ,两者的差距非常明显。     

创新资源协同空间联系与区域经济增长——基于中国省域数据的实证分析

以中国31个省域为空间样本,运用趋势面、引力模型和探索性空间数据分析法研究中国创新资源协同空间联系的动态变化特征,通过构建创新资源协同势能与区域经济增长空间面板计量模型,实证探讨创新资源协同空间联系与区域经济增长关系。研究结果表明：2003~2014年中国各省域创新资源协同状况整体呈现“东南高,西北低”的空间分布特征;创新资源协同空间联系呈现显著的区域不平衡性,空间网络结构分布格局变化显著：从简单雏形逐渐发育为“鸡爪型”、多核心复杂化的“网络型”空间结构;创新资源协同势能呈现显著的空间正相关,主要向东部沿海地区集聚;实证结果显示中国区域经济增长存在显著的空间溢出效应,创新资源协同空间联系对区域经济增长表现出显著的促进效应,可以通过直接效应、间接效应和总效应空间溢出促进区域经济增长。     

Influencing mechanism of energy-related carbon emissions in Xinjiang based on the input-output and structural decomposition analysis

Analysis of carbon emission mechanism based on regional perspectives is an important research method capable of achieving energy savings and emission reductions. Xinjiang, an important Chinese energy production base, is currently going through a period of strategic opportunities for rapid development. Ensuring stable socio-economic development while achieving energy savings and meeting emission reductions targets, is the key issue currently facing the region. This paper is based on the input-output theory, and conducts a structural decomposition analysis on the factors affecting energy-related carbon emissions in Xinjiang from 1997 to 2007; this analysis employs a hybrid input-output analysis framework of “energy - economy - carbon emissions”. (1) Xinjiang’s carbon emissions from energy consumption increased from 20.70 million tons in 1997 to 40.34 million tons in 2007; carbon emissions growth was mainly concentrated in the production and processing of energy resources, the mining of mineral resources, and the processing industry. (2) The analysis of the direct effects of the influencing factors on carbon emissions showed that the change in per capita GDP, the final demand structure, the population scale, and the production structure were the important factors causing an increase in carbon emissions, while the decrease in carbon emission intensity during this period was the important influencing factor in stopping the growth of carbon emissions. This showed that while the sizes of Xinjiang’s economy and population were growing, the economic structure had not been effectively optimized and the production technology had not been efficiently improved, resulting in a rapid growth of carbon emissions from energy consumption. (3) The analysis of the indirect effects of the influencing factors of carbon emission showed that the inter-provincial export, fixed capital formation, and the consumption by urban residents had significant influence on the changes in carbon emissions from energy consumption in Xinjiang. (4) The growth of investments in fixed assets of carbon intensive industry sectors, in addition to the growth of inter-provincial exports of energy resource products, makes the transfer effect of inter-provincial “embodied carbon” very significant.     

人口政策变动下曲靖市人口发展趋势分析

人口生育政策变化会对区域未来人口发展产生直接影响,“全面二孩”政策是继“单独二孩”政策之后逐步放宽生育政策的又一重大举措。结合政策变动,筛选政策受众人群进行精准化预测:未来15年,曲靖市20~39岁育龄妇女将净减少3.7万人,其中符合“全面二孩”生育政策且在20~39岁育龄妇女人口规模将缩减近0.7万;结合“全面二孩”政策最终兑现人口的测算,从2016年至2020年间会产生一个“二孩”生育高峰期,过了高峰期之后将渐落并减少至2.23万,较高峰期缩减0.82万人。“全面二孩”政策进一步调整和完善了生育政策,但后期效果不明显,面对“后人口转变”时代的到来,低生育率、老龄化的人口发展新格局,要实现人口与社会经济的协调发展,仍需与时俱进做出入口政策相应调整。     

东北三省对外直接投资空间格局及影响因素

对外直接投资不仅是东北三省建立全方位开放型经济体制的必经阶段,也是实现全面经济振兴的重要契机。在中国进入对外投资加速发展阶段的背景下,“一带一路”战略、东北亚经济圈建设等为东北三省对外直接投资发展提供了机遇。利用2003~2014年的省际对外直接投资规模、境外投资机构等数据,全面分析了东北三省对外直接投资的发展路径、空间特征及其在国内地位,并采用地理加权回归（GWR）模型深入地分析了东北三省对外直接投资的关键影响因素及其时空差异,最后提出相应的空间发展战略及政策建议。研究表明：① 东北三省对外直接投资主要集中在农、林、矿等资源型行业,具有显著的贸易服务、市场服务特征,并且对政府和国有经济的依赖较大;② 技术水平和金融环境对东北三省对外直接投资的推动力仍有较大的提升空间;③ 未来东北三省应推进企业联合投资和空间差异化投资战略,发挥国有企业的投资带动作用,加强对科技型企业和技术追寻型对外直接投资的鼓励和支持。