气候变化和物候变动对东北黑土区农业生产的协同作用及未来粮食生产风险

东北黑土区是中国重要的粮食生产基地,也是中国气候变化最敏感的地区之一。然而,气候变化背景下东北黑土区气候及物候变化对农业生产力的综合影响并不清晰,未来农业生产风险评估的定量化程度不够,风险等级制定缺乏依据。本文借助遥感产品、气候资料和模拟数据等资料,综合运用多元线性回归、相关分析及干旱危险性指数等方法,探究东北黑土区作物物候动态及其气候响应特征,辨识气候与物候变化对农业生产的复合效应及未来可能风险。结果表明：① 2000—2017年东北黑土区29.76%的区域作物生长季开始期呈显著延后趋势,16.71%的区域作物生长季结束期呈提前态势,生长季开始期受气温的影响范围广,且滞后时间长;生长季结束期与前期气候变化关系更加密切,且带状差异性响应格局尤其明显。② 气候变化和物候期改变对作物生产的解释能力较生长季同期气候变化的解释能力增加了70.23%,解释面积扩大了85.04%。③ RCP8.5情景下东北黑土区粮食总产量呈现上升趋势,粮食生产风险表现出“南增北减”的演变特征,风险区面积不断扩大,全球温升2.0 ℃时,松嫩黑土亚区南部粮食减产量可能达到10%。研究有助于深入认识气候—物候—作物生产的关联机理及未来粮食生产风险,对制定气候变化应对策略,保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。     

东北黑土区土壤剖面地温和水分变化规律

东北黑土区土壤侵蚀的结果使土壤在坡面上发生再分配,土壤腐殖质层厚度的空间变异增大。腐殖质层厚度的变化又引起地温和土壤水分等土壤物理性质的变化,地温和水分是影响和反映冻融侵蚀作用的重要因子,也是影响地表和土壤剖面物质运移的重要因素。本文通过实测不同厚度腐殖质层剖面的地温和土壤水分,分析了地温和水分随时间和土壤剖面深度的变化规律。结果显示腐殖质层厚度对土壤温度和含水量有显著影响,腐殖质层较厚的剖面解冻速度比薄层黑土区要慢,不同深度土层温度到达0℃的日期也不相同,腐殖质层较厚的剖面冻结时间要滞后1周左右。同时,腐殖质层较厚的黑土区土壤含水量明显大于薄层黑土区,土壤水分运移的深度范围也大。     

东北黑土区容许土壤流失量研究(英文)

Soil loss tolerance(T) is the maximum rate of annual soil erosion that is tolerated and still allows a high level of crop productivity to be sustained economically and indefinitely.In the black soil region of Northeast China,an empirically determined,default T value of 200(t/km2?a) is used for designing land restoration strategies for different types of soils.The ob-jective of this study was to provide a methodology to calculate a quantitative T for different black soil species.A field investigation was conducted to determine the typical soil profiles of 21 black soil species in the study area and a quantitative methodology based on a modified soil productivity index model was established to calculate the T values.These values,which varied from 68 t/km2?a to 358 t/km2?a,yielded an average T value of 141 t/km2?a for the 21 soil species.This is 29.5% lower than the current national standard T value.Two significant factors that influenced the T value were soil thickness and vulnerability to erosion.An ac-ceptable reduction rate of soil productivity over a planned time period of 1% is recommended as necessary for maintaining long-term sustainable soil productivity.Compared with the cur-rently used of regional unified standard T value,the proposed method,which determines T using specific soil profile indices,has more practical implications for effective,sustainable management of soil and water conservation.     

东北典型黑土区气候、地貌演化与黑土发育关系

通过野外实地调查,利用地层学方法结合孢粉分析结果,研究了黑土区地层地貌的发育历史、地层序列以及古气候变化,重建黑土、黑钙土的发育历史及发育所需的地貌、气候条件。结果表明,黑土从温暖湿润的晚更新世早期便开始在嫩江的二、三级阶地上发育,而黑钙土则从全新世初开始在嫩江的一级阶地上发育,这时气候处于暖干期,且一级阶地地势较低,水位相对较高,容易接受上方高地淋洗下来的钙,从而在土壤中形成比较典型的淀积层。可见,地貌条件及气候因素对黑土、黑钙土的形成发育起到至关重要的作用。研究结果为黑土区的水土保持及土壤改良研究提供理论基础,同时为正确评估黑土层的侵蚀速率及制订合理的改良措施提供科学的参考。     

50年来东北黑土区土地利用变化对沟蚀的影响——以克东地区为例

以位于东北典型黑土区的克东地区作为研究区,以1965年的Corona、2005年的SPOT5和2015年高分一号影像作为数据源,通过目视解译获取研究区对应年份的侵蚀沟分布状况;以1954年地形图和1975年的Landsat/MSS、2005年和2015年的Landsat/TM影像为数据源分别获取1965年、2005年和2015年土地利用数据;以侵蚀沟裂度为指标从土地利用变化角度分析研究区近50年来沟蚀变化状况。结果表明：黑土区沟壑侵蚀状况日益严重,耕地中侵蚀沟面积最大、侵蚀沟裂度增长速度最快;耕地、草地和建设用地上沟蚀状况的加剧伴随着林地和未利用地的开垦;耕地和草地相互转换裂度变化最大,退耕还林还草短期内侵蚀沟裂度仍然很高,但随着近10年来“退耕还林”的推行和用地状况的改善,沟蚀虽仍在发展但速度趋于缓慢。     

基于TETIS模型的黑土区乌裕尔河流域径流与侵蚀产沙模拟研究

为科学地认识中国东北黑土区流域土壤侵蚀特征,探讨TETIS模型在该区的适用性,本文以乌裕尔河流域为例,利用1971-1987年日径流与泥沙实测数据对TETIS模型进行了校正与验证,进而分析了流域土壤侵蚀强度特征及其与坡度、土地利用方式的关系。研究结果表明：TETIS模型在乌裕尔河流域适用性好,日径流与日输沙量的纳什效率系数在0.52~0.70之间,决定系数在0.60~0.71之间,体积误差均不超过15%。流域平均侵蚀模数为397.2 t/(km²·a),流域以微度和轻度侵蚀为主,约90%的产沙来自于坡面。平均土壤侵蚀模数随坡度的增大而增大,流域侵蚀量主要来自于0°~5°坡面。不同土地利用方式具不同的土壤侵蚀模数,耕地土壤侵蚀模数最大,达556.3 t/(km²·a)。坡度较大的耕地和植被覆盖度较低的区域是水土流失治理的重点。研究表明,TETIS模型在黑土区模拟土壤侵蚀产沙应用前景好,可为研究区制定水土保持措施提供科学依据。     

黑土耕作区侵蚀沟治理紧迫度空间分布特征

综合把握侵蚀沟发育状态及其治理紧迫程度可为有效判断区域侵蚀沟防控方向与治理重点提供重要参考.论文结合侵蚀沟形态数据,构建区域侵蚀沟治理紧迫度评价指标体系,从乡镇与网格尺度揭示区域侵蚀沟侵蚀程度及其空间分布规律.结果表明:①从数量特征看,海伦黑土耕作区侵蚀沟分布呈非均衡状态,沟道长度以微/小型(≤500 m)为主,沟道面...     

Development of gullies and sediment production in the black soil region of northeastern China

Gully erosion is an important environmental hazard in the black soil region of northeastern China. It is a primary sediment source in the region which needs appropriate soil conservation practices. Gully incision in rolling hills typical of this region was monitored using real-time kinematic GPS to assess the rates of gully development and the resultant sediment production. From 2002 to 2005, gully heads in the study area retreated between 15.4 and 33.5 m, giving an average retreat rate of 8.4 m yr^− 1. Field measurements showed that total sediment production due to gully erosion during the three years ranged between 257 and 1854 m³ yr^− 1, which is equivalent to 326 to 2355 t yr^− 1, with gully-head retreat accounting for 0 to 21.7% (4.4% in average). The sediment delivery ratio was especially high during the summer rainy season (56% in average). Sediment production by ephemeral gullies and permanent gullies was 1.5 times greater than that from surface erosion. Gully heads retreated faster in the spring freeze–thaw period than in the summer. The stage of gully development could be identified based on short-term changes in the gully erosion rate.     

20世纪80年代以来西南喀斯特地区植被变化对气候变化的响应

气候变化与植被变化的关系已经在全球和区域尺度上得到了研究证明。在前人研究的基础上,基于AVHRR GIMMS NDVI和AVHRR GloPEM NPP数据集,通过对逐个像元信息的提取和分析,研究了20世纪80年代以来,我国西南喀斯特地区植被变化对气候变化的响应。研究结果显示:(1)20世纪80年代以来,西南喀斯特地区植被覆盖度和净初级生产量总体均呈增加的趋势,但不显著。植被指数的年际变化存在着明显的区域差异;(2)植被指数年际变化与气候因子年际变化的相关系数区域分异比较明显;(3)不同的植被类型对气候变化有着不同的响应特征;在该研究区气温变化对植被变化的影响要高于降水量变化对其影响;(4)植被指数年际变化与气候因子年际变化的相关系数在不同气候条件下分布的规律性比较明显。本研究将会增进对影响喀斯特生态系统稳定性的自然过程的认识,同时也会为喀斯特生态系统的管理提供科学依据。     

NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation of China to climate change in the past and future

Using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator, a dynamic vegetation model, this study initially simulated the net primary productivity (NPP) dynamics of China’s potential vegetation in the past 55 years (1961–2015) and in the future 35 years (2016–2050). Then, taking the NPP of the potential vegetation in average climate conditions during 1986–2005 as the basis for evaluation, this study examined whether the potential vegetation adapts to climate change or not. Meanwhile, the degree of inadaptability was evaluated. Finally, the NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation was evaluated by synthesizing the frequency and degrees of inadaptability to climate change. In the past 55 years, the NPP of desert ecosystems in the south of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the north of China and in western Tibetan Plateau was prone to the effect of climate change. The NPP of most forest ecosystems was not prone to the influence of climate change. The low NPP vulnerability to climate change of the evergreen broad-leaved and coniferous forests was observed. Furthermore, the NPP of the desert ecosystems in the north of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau also had low vulnerability to climate change. In the next 35 years, the NPP vulnerability to climate change would reduce the forest–steppe in the Songliao Plain, the deciduous broad-leaved forests in the warm temperate zone, and the alpine steppe in the central and western Tibetan Plateau. The NPP vulnerability would significantly increase of the temperate desert in the Junggar Basin and the alpine desert in the Kunlun Mountains. The NPP vulnerability of the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests would also increase. The area of the regions with increased vulnerability would account for 27.5% of China.     

近15a新疆不同类型植被NDVI时空动态变化及对气候变化的响应

为了研究新疆不同类型植被对气候变化的响应,以地带性划分的植被类型作为研究对象,1998-2012年为时间尺度,利用GIS的空间分析方法结合数学统计方法,分析了新疆各地带植被覆盖变化的时空分布特征;并采用"多元回归+残差插值"的方法,模拟了气温和降水量的空间分布;利用SPOT VGT/NDVI数据以及气候数据(气温和降水量数据),分析了5个不同地带植被的动态变化、年际变化和生长季内各月变化及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:(1)新疆各地带植被覆盖度存在着显著差异,其中,温带北部草原地带高植被区和浓密植被区的范围较广,植被覆盖度较高,而高寒荒漠地带的极低植被区占该地带面积的一半以上,且植被覆盖度最低。(2)新疆各地带植被覆盖在近15 a间呈波动增加的趋势,5个地带的植被覆盖均有所改善,其中,高寒荒漠地带和暖温带半灌木、灌木地带的植被覆盖改善较为明显,其余3个地带均有少部分地区出现轻微改善现象。(3)温带半灌木、矮乔木荒漠地带,暖温带半灌木、灌木荒漠地带和温带半灌木、灌木荒漠地带4~10月的平均气温呈上升趋势,而温带北部草原地带、高寒荒漠地带对应的平均气温则出现下降趋势。5个地带的降水量在该时段内均表现为下降趋势。(4)基于年际尺度,新疆各地带植被NDVI与气温、降水量的相关性均不显著;基于月尺度,各地带植被NDVI受降水量的影响比气温大。同时,仅有暖温带半灌木、灌木荒漠地带植被NDVI与气温存在1个月的滞后性,其余4个地带对气温和降水均不存在滞后性。     

伏牛山地森林植被物候及其对气候变化的响应

研究植被物候是理解植被与气候关系的重要途径。在植被对气候变化响应的敏感地区,开展植被物候研究有助于揭示气候变化对植被的影响机制。基于2000-2015年MODIS EVI时间序列影像数据,利用Savitzky-Golay （S-G）滤波方法和动态阈值法提取伏牛山地2000-2015年森林植被物候参数,结合气温、降水数据,运用Man-Kendall趋势检验、Sen斜率、ANUSPLIN插值和相关性分析等方法,研究伏牛山地森林植被物候对气候要素（气温、降水）变化的响应。结果表明：① 伏牛山地森林植被生长季始期主要集中在第105~120 d,生长季末期主要集中在第285~315 d,生长季长度主要集中在165~195 d。从海拔梯度看,随海拔升高,生长季始期、末期和长度整体上分别呈显著推迟、提前及缩短趋势。② 生长季始期和生长季末期整体上呈推迟趋势,推迟的像元分别占森林植被的76.57%和83.81%。生长季长度整体呈延长趋势,延长的像元占比为61.21%。生长季始期变化特征主要是由该地区的春季气温降低所导致的。③ 研究区森林植被生长季始期与3月平均气温呈显著偏相关,且呈负相关的区域最多,即3月平均气温降低,导致生长季始期推迟;生长季末期与9月降水呈显著偏相关区域最多,且两者主要呈正相关,即9月降水增加,使生长季末期推迟。植被生长季长度由整个生长期的气温和降水来共同作用,对大多数的区域而言,8月的平均气温和降水与生长季长度的关系最为密切。     

东北黑土漫岗区长坡面坡耕地侵蚀产沙沿程变化

Characteristics of soil erosion change along a long slope in the gentle hilly areas in black soil region in Northeast China are discussed. A simplified slope model based on seg-ments was used to analyze the runoff data and soil erosion data observed between 2003 and 2004 over 10 field plots with different slope length in Heshan Farm,Heilongjiang Province. We found that soil erosion rate over long slopes in the black soil region changed alternatively along the slope and creates alternative zones of intensive erosion and week erosion.The exact place of each zone is different for different rainfall conditions. In a year with less and mild precipitation,rill cannot happen within the top 50 m,while in a year with large and inten-sive precipitation,rill can be formed starting even at 15 m from the top of the slope.     

Soil erosion along a long slope in the gentle hilly areas of black soil region in Northeast China

Characteristics of soil erosion change along a long slope in the gentle hilly areas in black soil region in Northeast China are discussed. A simplified slope model based on seg-ments was used to analyze the runoff data and soil erosion data observed between 2003 and 2004 over 10 field plots with different slope length in Heshan Farm, Heilongjiang Province. We found that soil erosion rate over long slopes in the black soil region changed alternatively along the slope and creates alternative zones of intensive erosion and week erosion.The exact place of each zone is different for different rainfall conditions. In a year with less and mild precipitation, rill cannot happen within the top 50 m, while in a year with large and inten-sive precipitation, rill can be formed starting even at 15 m from the top of the slope.     

黑土侵蚀速率及其对土壤质量的影响

利用¹³⁷Cs示踪法,研究了东北黑土耕作土壤的流失厚度和速率,探讨了水土流失对土壤机械组成、有机质、土壤水分、容重及其N、P含量的影响。结果表明:研究区侵蚀坡面¹³⁷Cs的分布深度在0～25cm,¹³⁷Cs的活度在1246.05±85.90～1499.45±101.73Bq/m²,侵蚀厚度可达0.316～0.433mm/a,侵蚀强度3033.6～3940.3t/km²·a,已属于中度侵蚀水平。水土流失造成土壤质地粗化,从坡顶向坡底,耕层土壤有机质增加、容重变化不大,含水量增加,土壤养分的“贫化”现象明显。     

西北干旱区气候变化对水文水资源影响研究进展

西北干旱区是对全球变化响应最敏感地区之一,研究分析全球变暖背景下的西北干旱区水资源问题,对应对和适应未来气候变化带来的影响具有重要意义。本文通过对西北干旱区气候变暖影响下的水资源形成、转化与水循环等关键问题最新研究成果的总结分析,得出如下结论：(1) 西北干旱区温度、降水在过去的50年出现过“突变型”升高,但进入21世纪,温度和降水均处于高位震荡,升高趋势减弱;(2) 西北干旱区冬季温度的大幅升高是拉动年均温度抬升的重要原因,而西伯利亚高压活动和二氧化碳排放是引起冬季升温的重要影响因素;(3) 西北干旱区蒸发潜力在1993年出现了一个明显的转折变化,由显著下降逆转为显著上升的趋势。气候变暖、蒸发水平增大对西北干旱区生态效应的负作用已经凸显;(4) 西北干旱区冰川变化对水资源量及年内分配产生了重要影响,部分河流已经出现冰川消融拐点。在塔里木河流域,冰川融水份额较大 (50%),可能在未来一段时期,河川径流还将处在高位状态波动。全球气候变暖在加大极端气候水文事件发生频率和强度的同时,加剧了西北干旱区内陆河流域的水文波动和水资源的不确定性。     

气候变化和生态建设对秦岭—淮河南北植被动态的影响

论文基于2000-2019年秦岭—淮河南北MODIS-NDVI植被覆盖数据,对中国南北过渡带植被时空变化进行分析,并探讨植被动态变化驱动因素.结果 表明:①在趋势变化上,2000-2019年秦岭—淮河南北植被显著恢复.其中,秦巴山区植被恢复面积占比最高,其次是巫山山区和关中平原;植被退化区面积占比仅为6.4％,主要分布...     

The dynamic monitoring of corn planting area distribution in response to climate change from 2001 to 2010: a case study of Northeast China

Climate change has effects on crop distribution and production due to altering precipitation and temperature patterns. Northeast China is one of the most sensitive areas affected by climate change. In this study, MODIS09A1 data from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer incorporated with phenology data from 21 agro-meteorological stations were used to monitor the dynamic change of corn distribution in response to climate change in the Northeast China for the decade of 2001 and 2010. Corn area estimates and statistics had the same change trend from 2001 to 2010 showing an annual increase. Furthermore, in order to analyse the gravity centre variations of the corn distribution, regions were chosen with corn planting areas of more than 500 km². Results showed that the main corn planting area had a trend to move towards high latitude and high longitude in response to climate change. It moved towards north about .58 degrees and east about .21 degrees between 2001 and 2010. The analysis of temperature and precipitation patterns revealed the same trend as the corn planting area. However, the corn area change was more sensitive to temperature than precipitation in Northeast China.     

气候变化背景下中国风暴潮灾害风险及适应对策研究进展

风暴潮是沿海地区在强烈的大气扰动条件下产生的异常增水现象,并受海平面上升等因素的影响。中国风暴潮灾害频繁,其中尤以东南沿海地区发生频率较高,灾害损失严重。本文从风暴潮灾害的危险性、承灾体的易损性、综合风险区划3个方面系统总结风暴潮灾害的研究进展及存在的主要问题;并以风暴潮灾情特征及风险评估为基础,探讨气候变化对风暴潮灾害风险的影响及其适应对策。气候变化引起的海平面上升将影响风暴潮的趋势、周期及风险区域,因而亟待开展结合海平面上升等因素的综合风险评估。充分考虑气候变化背景下沿海地区自然条件变化及社会经济发展状况,注重短期与长期相结合,完善风险评估体系。为适度、有序的适应气候变化下风暴潮灾害风险,中国在应急预警机制、工程防御及政策法规等适应能力建设方面不断完善,以提高风暴潮灾害的防灾减灾能力。     

东北地区玉米低温冷害气候和经济损失风险分区

分析了东北地区玉米低温冷害发生的热量条件、发生频率、风险指数和风险概率,用冷害气候风险评价指标将东北地区划分成高、偏高、中等、较低和低风险5个玉米低温冷害气候风险区域。考虑到冷害气候风险和玉米产量和面积比例等农业生产结构因素,建立了玉米低温冷害的气候—灾损综合风险评估模式,并将东北地区划分成高风险、较高风险、中风险、较低风险和低风险5个玉米低温冷害灾损综合风险区域,并指出各区域减缓玉米冷害风险的技术和战略措施。结果表明,东北地区的北部、东部和中部低温冷害灾损风险较大,吉林省西南部和辽宁省大部风险较小。