珠海凤凰山林地下垫面观测通量的贡献区分析

根据安装在珠海凤凰山亚热带常绿阔叶林区内的陆―气相互作用与碳通量观测塔观测数据,利用K-M模型计算了对应时刻的通量贡献区,分析得到不同大气稳定度、不同季节、不同时刻下通量贡献区分布的变化规律。提出一种切实可行的评价地表均一性的标准,即计算每个子区域表面积与其地表投影区域表面积的比值,以此确定K-M 模型对该站点的适用性。结果表明：通量贡献区范围的分布,在大气稳定度＞0.1 的情况下与主风向分布范围相近,而在大气稳定度＜-0.1 的情况下与主风向分布范围不完全一致。在冬季,通量贡献区主要分布在北部和东部方向;在季风爆发前的春季,通量贡献区分布和冬季大体相近;在季风爆发后的春季和夏季,通量贡献区在西南方向和东南方向较为集中,这一规律和风速风向的分布规律一致。对于日变化来说,在夜间通量贡献区范围大于白天,其中贡献区最大范围多出现在夜间,但随着季风的爆发,贡献区最大范围出现的时间从T 02:00左右推迟到T 04:00 左右,这可能是由不同季节大气达到最稳定的时段不同所致。贡献区范围最小的情况出现在T 07:00―09:00 之间,这段时间往往也是湍流活动性最强的时段。     

西北地区5—9月极端干期长度异常的气候特征

利用西北地区107个测站1960—2004年逐日降水资料,统计5—9月连续无雨日数 (日降水量小于0.1 mm),得到西北地区5—9月的逐年极端干期长度,在此基础上分析了极端干期长度的基本时空分布特征;对资料标准化后进行经验正交展开（EOF）和旋转经验正交展开（REOF）,研究其异常的空间结构及时间演变规律;并利用小波分析方法,分析了极端干期的周期性及突变的时间。结果表明：西北地区极端干期长度的气候平均分布与海拔高度及地理位置有较大的关系。西北地区极端干期长度异常在空间上主要表现为整体一致型,其次表现为东西相反的变化趋势。旋转载荷向量场（RLV）反映出极端干期长度的5个异常气候区：高原东北区,南疆区,青海区,北疆区和西北东南区。5个异常区极端干期长度均存在较明显的2~3 a高频振荡;其次西北东南区存在明显的16 a低频变化周期,而其他各区存在明显的8~11 a低频变化周期。新疆及青藏高原20世纪80年代后极端干期有缩短之趋势。高原东北区,青海区,北疆区的极端干期长度的分布有两个突变点;南疆区、西北东南区则各有一突变点。     

Avalanche prediction in Scotland: II. Development of a predictive model

The paper presents a method for predicting avalanche activity from meteorological data which is suitable for Scottish snow conditions. Two main types of avalanche are distinguished. Direct-action avalanches are the result of fresh snow accumulation and may release after approximately 200 mm of fresh snow has fallen over a period of a few days. They become extremely likely if a further 100 mm falls in a single day. Climax avalanches are the result of strength loss in the snow cover, due either to thawing or persistent cold. Thaws may produce an avalanche after only three or four days with maximum temperatures around 2°C. Alternatively, if maximum temperatures remain below ?4°C for over a week, and especially if cold weather persists for two weeks, slab avalanches of dry snow are likely to occur. Between these two types are several possible avalanche situations in which fresh snow accumulation is combined with high or low temperatures. Topography plays a passive role, and determines where avalanche activity is most likely. Free faces, smooth surfaces and slopes in the lee of major storms respond most rapidly to the onset of avalanche conditions.     

Determination of earthquake early warning parameters, τc and Pd, for southern California

We explore a practical approach to earthquake early warning in southern California by determining a ground-motion period parameter  τ _c   and a high-pass filtered displacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 s of the P waveforms recorded at the Southern California Seismic Network stations for earthquakes with M > 4.0. At a given site, we estimate the magnitude of an event from  τ _c   and the peak ground-motion velocity ( PGV ) from Pd . The incoming three-component signals are recursively converted to ground acceleration, velocity and displacement. The displacements are recursively filtered with a one-way Butterworth high-pass filter with a cut-off frequency of 0.075 Hz, and a P -wave trigger is constantly monitored. When a trigger occurs,  τ _c   and Pd are computed. We found the relationship between  τ _c   and magnitude ( M ) for southern California, and between Pd and PGV for both southern California and Taiwan. These two relationships can be used to detect the occurrence of a major earthquake and provide onsite warning in the area around the station where onset of strong ground motion is expected within seconds after the arrival of the P wave. When the station density is high, the methods can be applied to multistation data to increase the robustness of onsite early warning and to add the regional warning approach. In an ideal situation, such warnings would be available within 10 s of the origin time of a large earthquake whose subsequent ground motion may last for tens of seconds.     

Rift kinematics preserved in deep-time erosional landscape below the northern North Sea

Our understanding of continental rifting is, in large parts, derived from the stratigraphic record. This record is, however, incomplete as it does not often capture the geomorphic and erosional signal of rifting. New 3D seismic reflection data reveal a Late Permian-Early Triassic landscape incised into the pre-rift basement of the northern North Sea. This landscape, which covers at least 542 km², preserves a drainage system bound by two major tectonic faults. A quantitative geomorphic analysis of the drainage system reveals 68 catchments, with channel steepness and knickpoint analysis of catchment-hosted palaeo-rivers showing that the landscape preserved a >2 Myr long period of transient tectonics. We interpret that this landscape records a punctuated uplift of the footwall of a major rift-related normal fault (Vette Fault) at the onset of rifting. The landscape was preserved by a combination of relatively rapid subsidence in the hangingwall of a younger fault (Øygarden Fault) and burial by post-incision sediments. As such, we show how and why erosional landscapes are preserved in the stratigraphic record, and how they can help us understand the tectono-stratigraphic evolution of ancient continental rifts.     

Post-eruptive sedimentary processes in volcanic crater lakes: implications for deciphering the Samoan sedimentary record

The two largest islands of the Samoan chain, Savai’i and Upolu, possess almost 400 volcanic cones. Their craters form enclosed, internally drained basins that potentially retain long, detailed and uninterrupted sedimentary sequences. Because of the sparsity, fragmentary nature and low temporal resolution of records of environmental change from the tropical Pacific, these deposits have the potential to fill an important gap in our knowledge of global climatic and environmental change. To interpret such records we must understand the depositional processes that operate in these basins. Unfortunately, although the post-eruptive sedimentology of volcanic calderas and maars is relatively well-established, that of crater lakes remains poorly understood. The volcanic edifice of Mount Lanotō in southeast Upolu was selected for investigation. The form of the volcano and its crater are typical of those observed across the island. The sediments retained in the crater are composed largely of plant-organic-rich muds that display little visible evidence of stratigraphic variation. Mineral magnetic and chemical methods were therefore employed to document the types and distribution of sedimentary facies represented in the post-eruptive crater fill and, by inference, the processes of sedimentation that had operated in the crater. The earliest post-eruptive deposits are the result of the failure of the crater’s oversteepened internal slopes. The crater floor subsequently collapsed to form a pit crater. The basal deposits in the pit crater are likely to be the product of the collapse of its walls and roof. However, the bulk of the material in the feature was laid down under lacustrine conditions. These deposits accumulated in a relatively deep-water environment. Across the rest of the accumulation zone, by contrast, water levels appear to have been shallow. Sedimentation during this phase was dominated by autochthonous plant-organic-rich deposits, with minor fine-grained clastic input. Deposition was intermittently interrupted by localised episodes of mass movement that reworked the regolith mantling the steep internal slopes of the crater into the accumulation zone in the form of low-angle fans. At the broad scale, the sedimentology of Lake Lanotō displays similarities with that of volcanic calderas and maar lakes. However, the morphological simplicity of the basin, the general absence of contemporaneous volcanic activity, the timing of the onset of lacustrine conditions, the derivation of the clastic deposits in the volcanic crater almost solely from the by-products of the volcanic eruption, and the high biological activity in the lake waters mean that there are important differences between the types and distribution of sedimentary facies identified in Lake Lanotō and those represented in models of deposition in maars and volcanic calderas.     

Modelling spatial distribution of critically endangered Asian elephant and Hoolock gibbon in Bangladesh forest ecosystems under a changing climate

The Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) and Hoolock gibbon (Hoolock hoolock) are two globally endangered wildlife species limited to only tropical Asian forests. In Bangladesh both species are critically endangered and distributed mainly in the northeast and southeast hilly regions bordering neighboring India and Myanmar. Using existing distribution data, land-use/land cover, elevation and bio-climatic variables, we modeled the likely distribution of Asian elephant and Hoolock gibbon in Bangladesh for 2050 and 2070. We used the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 and Maximum Entropy algorithm for our modelling. Our study indicated that the Asian elephant will be more resilient to climate change compared with the Hoolock gibbon. Habitat loss for the Asian elephant is also expected to remain constant (i.e. 38%) throughout the period, whilst Hoolock gibbon habitat will be more sensitive to climatic variations, with the species predicted to be extirpated from the country by 2070. Being highly exposed to climate change with ever increasing land use pressures, we believe our study in Bangladesh can be used to enhance our understanding of future vulnerabilities of wildlife in a rapidly changing climate. A trans-boundary conservation program with greater attention to the species that are less resilient to climate change is also essential.     

青藏高原人口地域分异规律及“胡焕庸线”思想应用

青藏高原是中国乃至全球典型的人口稀疏区之一,但内部人口地域分异明显。通过构建青藏高原乡镇街道尺度的人口空间数据集,系统核算青藏高原人口数量及其空间密度,从经度、纬度、极向和垂直4个维度解析青藏高原人口地域分异规律,并基于“胡焕庸线”思想,提出青藏高原的“祁吉线”人口地理划分方案。结论包括：① 青藏高原人口空间分布不均衡,具有“东南密、西北疏”的总体空间分布特征,距离“寒旱核心区”近疏远密的极向地域分异明显;② 青藏高原人口地域分异与海拔、土壤、水资源、气候、植被等自然环境本底具有高度耦合关系,自然因素间交互作用加强了人口地域分异;③ 青藏高原人口地域分异可以通过连接祁连县与吉隆县的“祁吉线”体现,两侧地域面积大致相同,但是东南半壁与西北半壁人口比例达到93∶7的悬殊;④ “祁吉线”长期稳定,但是东南半壁人口持续微降,西北半壁人口持续微增,未来时期,东南半壁依然是青藏高原城镇化及人类活动的主要区域,而西北半壁应当重视人口增长与生态环境压力的矛盾。     

陇东南地区短历时降水特征及其分布规律

本文使用1971-2000年的自动站逐日降水资料和2009-2010年的区域站逐时降水资料,研究了陇东南地区短历时降水的特征及其分布。研究发现4-9月是一年降水的主要时段,占到了80%以上,空间分布上从西北向东南迅速增大,离高原近的地区高低值中心较多,可能是因为高原季风和高原地形的影响更大;随持续时间的增加,峰值呈现出了反位相分布,并且振幅逐渐减弱;短历时降水无论是频数还是对降水的贡献都占了很大比例,有40.3%的降水事件属于短历时降水,甚至有部分测站短历时降水的贡献超过了90%,表明短历时降水是研究地区的一种重要降水形式;在短历时降水量构成中有19.4%的降水由短历时强降水产生,表明短历时强降水是短历时降水的重要组成部分;短历时强降水傍晚达到最大,此外还有一个次峰值是在午夜时分;用新定义的概念计算了研究地区的集中期和集中度分布,发现集中度普遍较大,基本在0.6以上,主要集中在7-8月,进一步印证了“七下八上”的主汛期。     

2000-2013年西藏纳木错湖冰变化及其影响因素

湖冰物候事件是气候变化的敏感指示器。本文以西藏纳木错湖为研究对象,基于MODIS多光谱反射率产品数据监测了2000-2013年纳木错湖冰冻融日期,并结合多个气象站点的气象数据和实测湖面温度、湖面辐射亮温分析验证了湖冰变化的原因。纳木错湖冰变化较好地响应了区域气候变暖：开始冻结日期延迟和完全消融日期提前使湖冰存在期显著缩短(2.8 d/a)、湖冰冻结期增长、湖冰消融期缩短,其中消融期变化最为明显,平均每年缩短3.1 d。湖冰冻融日期的变化表明：2000年后纳木错湖冰冻结困难,消融加速,稳定性减弱。纳木错湖冰变化主要受湖面温度、湖面辐射亮温和气温变化的影响,它们可以作为气象因子来解释区域气候变化。     

The Role of Mid-Latitude Pacific Cyclones in the Winter Precipitation of California*

The characteristics of the mid-latitude Pacific cyclones that produce precipitation over California are investigated statistically to determine their role in governing precipitation receipt. From all cyclones occurring over the Pacific Ocean from December through March and between 1965–1990 inclusive, we identify a subset of cyclones likely to produce precipitation over California. The characteristics analyzed are track, frequency, duration, speed, central pressure, and proximity. These are related to monthly precipitation for the entire period and are also used to explain the difference in precipitation received during the earlier (wet) and latter (dry) halves of the 1980s. Results indicate that the winter cyclones responsible for precipitation over California originate in the southeast quadrant of the region influenced by the Aleutian Low and decay south of the Gulf of Alaska. The extent of cyclonic activity over the east Pacific Ocean near California diminished during the dry period. There were fewer cyclones, they were significantly weaker, and they traveled along a more meridional track during the dry period.     

黄土高原陆地表层作物生长季最大可能蒸散量的变化特征

基于黄土高原1961~2008年气候资料,应用修订的Penman-Monteith(P-M)模型计算作物生长季最大可能蒸散量,分析其时空分布、异常分布特征和次区域时间演变特征。结果表明:一致性异常分布是黄土高原作物生长季最大可能蒸散量的最主要空间模态。高原西北部区域作物生长季最大可能蒸散量呈显著增加趋势,且发生突变现象;高原东北部区域和高原东南部区域作物生长季最大可能蒸散量呈显著下降的趋势,也发生突变;黄土高原作物生长季最大可能蒸散量的3个空间分区中,3~4a的周期振荡表现得比较显著。     

近50年来东北地区降水的时空分异研究

以ARCGIS8.3为关键数据处理平台,通过编制相关AML程序,对东北地区近50年来(1951-2000年)降水的时空分异特征进行了分析。东北区多年平均降水量为489mm,从东南向西北递减,多年平均东部区、中部区和西部区的降水分别为635mm,481mm,355mm。整体上看,东北区降水还有显著的周期性,东部区和西部区的降水周期均为11年,中部为32年。东北区降水整体上呈现下降趋势,但下降趋势不明显。     

Temporary seismic quiescence: SE Turkey

Summary. The Border Zone that is the contact of the Arabian plate with the three plates of Turkey, Eurasia and Iran to the north has been remarkably aseismic during this century. By extending the period of observation backwards in time by a few centuries it is shown that this seismicity is atypical of the long-term behaviour of the zone and due to a quiescent period in the activity of the area during the 20th Century. In turn, this implies that short-term data alone do not provide a reliable assessment of earthquake hazard.     

长白山全新世以来的火山喷发活动与森林火灾研究

采用同位素年代测定等方法,探讨了长白山一万年以来火山活动的期次、规模及森林火灾。     

Local spatiotemporal dynamics of a simple aridity index in a region susceptible to desertification

Increased aridity is a robust proximate cause of desertification, both indirectly through greater rainfall variability and directly through prolonged droughts. The south of continental Portugal has large areas with high susceptibility to desertification. This study evaluates local dynamics in dryness in the south of Portugal based on the Aridity Intensity Index (AII), which is a numerical indicator of the degree of dryness of the climate and an indirect indicator of soil moisture availability. The AII was computed using daily precipitation data from stations with records within the 1940–1999 period in the south of Portugal. Annual scenarios of the AII were generated from 1940 to 1999 using direct sequential simulation (DSS). Those scenarios were then used to produce an additional set of maps that summarize their underlying space–time patterns. Two desertification indicators accounting for local dryness dynamics are proposed, namely the Dryness Susceptibility Indicator and the Dryness Trend Indicator. The results show that the southeast region is the most threatened by droughts and extreme dryness. Moreover, there is a tendency towards drier climatic conditions in coastal areas and in the centre of the study region. These findings are likely to have profound implications in agricultural planning and water supply management.     

Internal structure and eruptive history of a kilometre-scale mud volcano system, South Caspian Sea

We describe the internal structure of a multi‐kilometre scale mud volcano edifice from the South Caspian Sea using three‐dimensional (3D) seismic reflection data leading to a reconstruction of the volcano system's eruptive history. By adapting elements of classic seismic stratigraphy to the study of this volcano, we have found its edifice to consist of a series of stacked mud cones. This internal architecture is most likely to have formed as a result of repeated episodes of expulsion of a fluid‐mud mix. Underlying the stack of cones is an asymmetric fault‐bounded caldera measuring approximately 2 km in diameter. This caldera shows close structural similarity to the trapdoor type of magmatic caldera. Based on the geometrical relationships of individual mud cones to this caldera, we conclude that caldera‐like collapse of the edifice floor initiated following the deposition of the first mud cone (the pioneer cone). Growth of the caldera continued until the later stages of edifice evolution when it eventually abated. This eruptive history shows strong similarities to recent models for magmatic caldera eruption cycles. The study therefore highlights the potential analogue value of mud volcano systems to the study of igneous volcanism. Furthermore, it identifies 3D seismic data as a potentially useful tool in reconstructing the history of mud volcanic eruption and fluid and sediment expulsion from sedimentary basins.     

Seismic attenuation values obtained from instantaneous-frequency matching and spectral ratios

In this paper, attenuation values are obtained from seismic data using instantaneous-frequency matching and spectral ratios. to obtain differential t * values using instantaneous-frequency matching, a near offset reference pulse is attenuated until the resulting instantaneous frequency matches the observed value at the receiver. Prior to matching, filtering can be applied to each trace in order to reduce the effects of noise on the calculated instantaneous frequencies. In the second method, the spectral ratio between a receiver pulse and a reference pulse is used to obtain differential t * values. to obtain an unbiased estimate, a variable spectral bandwidth is used depending on the noise level of the data. the two methods are tested using synthetic traces and then applied to crustal refraction data from the 1986 PASSCAL Ouachita experiment. Results show that the differential t * values obtained using filtered, instantaneous-frequency matching are consistent with and have less scatter than those obtained from spectral ratios with a variable bandwidth.     

Controls on Rayleigh wave amplitudes: attenuation and focusing

A large data set of amplitude measurements of minor and major arc Rayleigh waves in the period range 73–171 s is collected. By comparing these amplitudes with the amplitudes of synthetic waveforms calculated by mode summation, maps of lateral variations in the apparent attenuation structure of the Earth are constructed. An existing formalism for predicting the effects of focusing is employed to calculate amplitude perturbations for the same data set. These perturbations are used to construct 'pseudo‐attenuation' maps and these results are compared with the apparent attenuation maps calculated from the data. It is shown that variations in Rayleigh wave amplitude perturbations in the Earth are dominated by attenuation at long wavelengths (below about degree 8) and by elastic structure at shorter wavelengths. It is also shown that the linear approximation for focusing is successful at predicting Rayleigh wave amplitudes using existing phase velocity maps. These results indicate that future attempts to model the velocity structure of the Earth would be assisted by incorporating amplitude data and by jointly inverting for Q structure.