From A to B,randomly: a point-to-point random trajectory generator for animal movement

For applications in animal movement, we propose a random trajectory generator (RTG) algorithm that combines the concepts of random walks, space-time prisms, and the Brownian bridge movement model and is capable of efficiently generating random trajectories between a given origin and a destination point, with the least directional bias possible. Since we provide both a planar and a spherical version of the algorithm, it is suitable for simulating trajectories ranging from the local scale up to the (inter-)continental scale, as exemplified by the movement of migrating birds. The algorithm accounts for physical limitations, including maximum speed and maximum movement time, and provides the user with either single or multiple trajectories as a result. Single trajectories generated by the RTG algorithm can be used as a null model to test hypotheses about movement stimuli, while the multiple trajectories can be used to create a probability density surface akin to Brownian bridges.     

Incorporating behavior into animal movement modeling: a constrained agent-based model for estimating visit probabilities in space-time prisms

ABSTRACT

Animal movement is a dynamic spatio-temporal process. While trajectory data reflect the instantaneous animal position in space and time, other factors influence movement decisions between these observed positions. While some methods incorporate environmental (habitat) context into their understanding of the animal movement process, it is often captured in terms of simple parameters or weights influencing model results; primary behavioral data are not used directly to inform these models. Here, a new space-time constrained agent-based model is introduced, capable of producing ordered, behaviorally informed animal potential paths between observed space-time anchors. Potential paths generated by this approach incorporate both observed animal behavior and classical space-time constraints, and are used to construct associated visit probability distributions. Additionally, the notion of a behavioral space-time path is introduced, a variant of the space-time path based on the results of behaviorally aware animal movement simulation. The results of this approach demonstrate a means to better understand the varied movement opportunities within space-time prisms from an animal behavior perspective. From a spatial ecology perspective, not only is the environmental context considered, but the animal’s choice of transition and movement magnitude between contexts is modeled. This approach provides insight into the complex sequence of behaviorally informed actions driving animal movement decision-making.     

An individual cognitive evacuation behaviour model for agent-based simulation: a case study of a large outdoor event

Route selection is a complex issue in simulating the pedestrian’s walking behaviour during the evacuation. In many current studies, the agent-based model has been widely used to simulate the individualized behaviour, and growing concern is given to the cognitive aspects in route selection. However, the influence of incomplete spatial knowledge and the preferences for different routing strategies has not been fully considered. To represent more reliable route choice by different pedestrians, this study presents an individual cognitive evacuation behaviour model which is mainly focusing on the individual differences in routing strategy and spatial knowledge. The model consists of two major components, namely the multiple routing strategies and personalized spatial cognitive road network. Based on a review of the previous studies, the potential factors that may affect the evacuation behaviour were discussed. The quantitative relationships between these potential factors and the pedestrian’s routing preference, as well as the possibilities of recognizing different roads, were explored using the regression method. As a case study, the proposed model was implemented using the data collected from a field survey of a real outdoor event. When applied in an agent-based simulation, the implemented model will support more reliable simulation of route choices corresponding to the pedestrians’ behaviour in the real event.     

ASSURE: a model for the simulation of urban expansion and intra-urban social segregation

Numerous cities in developing regions worldwide are expanding at a tremendous rate. This requires adequate strategies to address the needs of these growing cities with diverse populations. Nonetheless, the development of urban policies is often hampered by the lack of reliable data or insight in the socio-spatial dynamics of this urban expansion. This paper therefore presents ASSURE, a spatially and temporally explicit model that can simulate urban growth and intra-urban social segregation, taking into account alternative policy strategies and expected social dynamics. The model has a flexible structure that allows incorporating specific city conditions that influence residential decision-making and adapting the simulation to the data available. This, in combination with the transparent model structure, makes ASSURE a potentially valuable decision support tool for urban planning. The potential is demonstrated with an example where the urban growth of and social segregation in Kampala (Uganda) is simulated based on (semi-)quantitative and qualitative data for ca. 800 households collected through interviews. The results of the simulations show that depending on the scenario, the spatial segregation and accessibility problems will evolve highly differently.     

FUTURES:一种新型区域城市增长模型

如何更好地进行城市发展模拟是发展中国家快速城市化过程中面临的一个科学问题。传统研究往往基于单体或组合模型,不能为决策方案提供直接支持。本文介绍了国外一个新的城市发展模型FUTURES(FUTure Ur-ban-Regional Environment Simulation)。该模型不仅考虑了城市发展区动态适宜性梯度计算、人均土地消耗的趋势分析以及基于空间位置的斑块变化可视化模拟,而且注重模块间的动态交互反馈过程,形成了独有的深度耦合机制,模型结构紧密又不失灵活性。基于高性能计算环境支持,该模型已经在美国北卡罗来纳州的多个区域进行实验并取得成功。本文主要介绍该模型设计思想、模型组成、关键建模方法,并总结了模型的主要优势,以期为我国城市发展模拟研究提供借鉴。     

Cliff retreat and talus development at the caldera wall of Mount St. Helens: Computer simulation using a mathematical model

To simulate the landform evolution at the caldera wall of Mount St. Helens, USA, a mathematical model for talus development was applied to model the topographic change during the 11years from the volcanic eruption, i.e., from formation of the cliff. Simulated results show that the topographic change is predicted to be large for about 10years after the eruption and to decline thereafter. If snow accumulation in the talus slope deposits is negligible, the talus top will not reach the cliff top within 300years after the eruption. Talus growth in Mount St. Helens was much faster than that in the Chichibu Basin, Japan. This may indicate the low strength and/or high weathering rate of the rockwall of Mount St. Helens, resulting in rapid production of debris and rapid retreat of the cliff.     

Long-term dynamics of a semiarid grass steppe under stochastic climate and different grazing regimes: A simulation analysis

We built a grid-based spatial explicit stochastic model that simulates grazing events and basic processes like seedling establishment, growth or mortality of the dominant species in the grass steppes of Patagonia. After evaluating the model with field data, we performed simulation experiments aimed to explore the interaction of precipitation and grazing regimes on vegetation dynamics. Grazing generated a reduction in tussock density which results in a decline in aboveground net primary production (ANPP). Both response variables presented a non-linear behavior including high temporal variability and delay effects, which may prolong for decades. There was a clear threshold in the response of the variables to stock density, though changes become evident only when a highly selective grazing scenario was used. Under high stock density conditions, precipitation use efficiency (PUE) was 82% lower than the values for non-grazed runs. The inter-annual variability of precipitation was more important than the grazing regime in explaining differences in tussock density. Simulation results highlight important issues regarding rangeland management: grazing regime might be as important as stocking density as a degradation agent, temporal lags might obscure degradation processes for decades, the definition of monitoring variables need to consider their response time constants.     

CLUE-S模型的改进与土地利用变化动态模拟——以张家界市永定区为例

区域土地利用变化模拟是LUCC研究的核心内容之一。以地处湘西北岩溶山区的张家界市永定区为研究对象,针对目前国际上广泛使用的CLUE-S土地利用变化模型,通过在传统Logistic回归模型中引入空间自相关变量,对CLUE-S模型的空间分析模块进行了改进。实验与分析结果表明,改进的空间分析模块拟合优度、拟合精度都有较大的提高。耕地、林地及居民点工矿用地的拟合优度(ROC值)分别从0.784、0.821和0.741提高到0.827、0.875和0.838。在此基础之上,采用改进的CLUE-S模型,模拟和预测了研究地区2005~2020年的土地利用时空变化。研究结果说明对CLUE-S模型空间分析模块的改进在一定意义上是合理的,同时也可以为永定区及其相似地区的土地利用规划决策提供更为科学的依据。     

Evaluating the suitability of TRMM satellite rainfall data for hydrological simulation using a distributed hydrological model in the Weihe River catchment in China

The objective of this study is to quantitatively evaluate Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data with rain gauge data and further to use this TRMM data to drive a Distributed Time-Variant Gain Model (DTVGM) to perform hydrological simulations in the semi-humid Weihe River catchment in China. Before the simulations, a comparison with a 10-year (2001-2010) daily rain gauge data set reveals that, at daily time step, TRMM rainfall data are better at capturing rain occurrence and mean values than rainfall extremes. On a monthly time scale, good linear relationships between TRMM and rain gauge rainfall data are found, with determination coefficients R² varying between 0.78 and 0.89 for the individual stations. Subsequent simulation results of seven years (2001-2007) of data on daily hydrological processes confirm that the DTVGM when calibrated by rain gauge data performs better than when calibrated by TRMM data, but the performance of the simulation driven by TRMM data is better than that driven by gauge data on a monthly time scale. The results thus suggest that TRMM rainfall data are more suitable for monthly streamflow simulation in the study area, and that, when the effects of recalibration and the results for water balance components are also taken into account, the TRMM 3B42-V7 product has the potential to perform well in similar basins.     

基于FloodArea模型新疆山洪淹没模拟及致灾临界雨量阈值的研究——以皮里青河流域为例

以皮里青河流域为研究区,运用小时降水、土地利用类型、数字高程（DEM）、实测淹没深度等数据,基于FloodArea模型对研究区2010年5月2日、2012年6月3日、2016年5月9日、2016年6月17日洪水过程进行再现模拟,通过精度验证并建立了降水－淹没深度的关系,在此基础上确定了4个淹没等级对应的致灾临界雨量。相关分析得出喀拉亚尕奇乡累计8 h降雨量与模拟洪水淹没深度的相关性最好,达到了0.96,潘津乡降雨累计5 h的相关性最好,为0.99;通过实测数据对模拟淹没深度进行精度检验得出,喀拉亚尕奇乡和潘津乡两个考察点相对误差分别为0.47 m和0.1 m,误差率分别为31.33%和7.69%,FloodArea模型对研究区洪水过程模拟的效果较好,可以反映出该区域的洪水淹没情况,能为无水文资料的山区流域的山洪过程进行较为精准的模拟;按照山洪灾害等级划分标准和降水-淹没深度的关系得出,预警点累计5 h降水得到对应4个等级的致灾临界雨量阈值分别为：四级17.84 mm、三级32.39 mm、二级54.21 mm、一级76.04 mm。     

CFSR气象数据在流域水文模拟中的适用性评价——以灞河流域为例

近年来,全球再分析气象数据已经越来越多地被运用到世界各地的水文建模中,但是其模拟的效果有很大差异。为探讨CFSR再分析数据在流域水文模拟中的适用性问题,本文以灞河流域为研究区,使用两种气象数据（传统气象数据和CFSR气象数据）构建SWAT水文模型,并从年和月尺度分别进行灞河流域2001-2012年的径流模拟,利用回归分析、纳什效率系数NSE和百分比偏差PBIAS等评价方法对两种数据的模拟效果进行对比。最后,提出了CFSR气象数据订正的方法。结果表明：① CFSR气象数据在灞河流域水文模拟中有一定的适用性,模拟结果的拟合优度R²>0.50,NSE>0.33,|PBIAS|<14.8,纳什效率系数NSE偏低。尽管CFSR气象数据质量存在一定问题,但是经过降雨数据订正后能够取得比较满意的模拟效果。② CFSR气象数据模拟流量比实测流量偏高,这主要是由于CFSR逐日降水数据估算的降雨天数较多、雨强较大,一般会导致该数据在水量平衡方面能够模拟出较高的基流和洪峰流量（个别年份除外）。③ 灞河流域CFSR降水数据（x）与实测降水数据（y）之间的关系大致可用幂指数方程表达：y = 1.4789x^0.8875（R² = 0.98,P<0.001）,每个CFSR站点的拟合方程略微不同,此方程为CFSR降水数据的订正提供了理论基础。     

Mesostructural and microstructural evidences for a two stage tectono-metallogenetic model for the uranium deposit at Mika, Northeastern Nigeria: A research note

The Mika uranium deposit is of the Central Massif vein-type. The deposit consists of a series of subparallel veins, similar to Lilljuthatten deposit (Sweden), with variable ore grade. Two main structural trends occur within the vicinity of Mika namely: (1) vertical N160E-N180E or N-S normal fault trend in which the brecciated granite has been permeated and cemented by silica ribbons; (2) N130E trend associated with reddish brown hematitized siliceous breccias filling open fractures. The N130E trend is younger, and it is a local, passive shear trend developed at the bends of the N-S faults. On a microscopic scale, samples from the N-S trend are rich in crude cubic-tetragonal prismatic crystals of uraninite and/or pitchblende ores occurring in association with a low-temperature greenschist mineral assemblage of chlorite, epidote, and mica. Conversely, samples from the N130E trend show widespread kaolinitisation, goethite formation and layering reminiscent of groundwater activity at shallow depths near the earth’s surface. The main uranium mineral in this zone is yellowish autunite. The model proposed here envisages that the mineralization was related to two separate processes. A first mineralization episode developed simultaneous with the greenschist mineral assemblage, and a second episode was related to remobilization and subsequent mineral concentration in the passive N130E open fractures by groundwater to form autunite. Such a model has far reaching implications for exploration. Although the secondary minerals along the N130E fractures are more obvious in the field, the potentially economic primary mineral concentrations may be concealed at greater depth in the N-S structures.     

Evaluation of the applicability of climate forecast system reanalysis weather data for hydrologic simulation: A case study in the Bahe River Basin of the Qinling Mountains,China

In recent years, global reanalysis weather data has been widely used in hydrological modeling around the world, but the results of simulations vary greatly. To consider the applicability of Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data in the hydrologic simulation of watersheds, the Bahe River Basin was used as a case study. Two types of weather data (conventional weather data and CFSR weather data) were considered to establish a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, which was used to simulate runoff from 2001 to 2012 in the basin at annual and monthly scales. The effect of both datasets on the simulation was assessed using regression analysis, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Percent Bias (PBIAS). A CFSR weather data correction method was proposed. The main results were as follows. (1) The CFSR climate data was applicable for hydrologic simulation in the Bahe River Basin (R ² of the simulated results above 0.50, NSE above 0.33, and |PBIAS| below 14.8. Although the quality of the CFSR weather data is not perfect, it achieved a satisfactory hydrological simulation after rainfall data correction. (2) The simulated streamflow using the CFSR data was higher than the observed streamflow, which was likely because the estimation of daily rainfall data by CFSR weather data resulted in more rainy days and stronger rainfall intensity than was actually observed. Therefore, the data simulated a higher base flow and flood peak discharge in terms of the water balance, except for some individual years. (3) The relation between the CFSR rainfall data (x) and the observed rainfall data (y) could be represented by a power exponent equation: y=1.4789x ^0.8875 (R ²=0.98, P<0.001). There was a slight variation between the fitted equations for each station. The equation provides a theoretical basis for the correction of CFSR rainfall data.     

A weighted-averaging regression and calibration model for inferring lakewater salinity from fossil diatom assemblages in saline lakes of the Vestfold Hills: a new tool for interpreting Holocene lake histories in Antarctica

The relationship between surface sediment diatom assemblages and measured limnological variables in thirty-three coastal Antarctic lakes from the Vestfold Hills was examined by constructing a diatom-water chemistry dataset. Previous analysis of this dataset by canonical correspondence analysis revealed that salinity accounted for a significant amount of the variation in the distribution of the diatom assemblages. Weighted-averaging regression and calibration of this diatom-salinity relationship was used to establish a transfer function for the reconstruction of past lakewater salinity from fossil diatom assemblages. Weighted-averaging regression and calibration with classical deshrinking provided the best model for salinity reconstructions and this was applied to the fossil diatom assemblages from one of the saline lakes in the Vestfold Hills in order to assess its potential for palaeosalinity and palaeoclimate reconstruction.