Integrating Fire Behavior and Pedestrian Mobility Models to Assess Potential Risk to Humans from Wildfires Within the U.S.–Mexico Border Zone∗

Wildfires create a risk to pedestrians traveling through rural areas, because they might not be aware of the presence of a wildfire or its direction and rate of spread until is too late to successfully evacuate. In wildland areas of southern San Diego County, immigrants crossing the U.S.–Mexico border and border security agents are particularly at risk to wildfires. The objective of this study is to develop a framework of analysis and associated tools for examining the combined behavior of wildfires and pedestrian mobility to assess the potential threat of fire to pedestrians in wildland areas. Outputs from a geographic information system (GIS) overlay model for determining potentially dangerous fire zones, the Wildland–Urban Interface Evacuation (WUIVAC) model, and a model of pedestrian mobility in wildland areas were combined to generate wildfire risk to pedestrian maps. The key technical contributions of the study are the development and testing of the pedestrian mobility model and the framework and logic for integrating the results of three GIS-based models. The applied geography contribution is the testing of two scenarios of high risk from wildfires to pedestrians within the U.S.–Mexico border zone of San Diego County, California.

The study results show that the travel times calculated by the pedestrian mobility model appear to be realistic and are affected by the terrain and vegetation characteristics of a study site, whereas the evacuation trigger buffers (ETBs) from WUIVAC are mostly influenced by the wind speed and direction parameters of the FlamMap fire spread model. A moderate fire danger to pedestrians in the most remote wildland locations of the study area is determined. The scenario test results suggest that if a wildfire occurs within 2 km (extreme southwesterly winds) or 6 km (extreme northeasterly wind) of pedestrians in the worst case location within the San Diego border region they would likely not have a sufficient amount of time to reach a nearby safety zone.     

甘宁蒙陕农牧交错区不宜大规模开垦

通过对甘宁蒙陕农牧交错区的自然特征和生态功能、人类活动对该区环境的影响、水资源状况、国内外开垦草原的教训等方面的分析、论证,说明该区不宜大规模开垦,并提出该区生态保护与建设的对策。     

地域分异规律与北方农牧交错带的退耕还林还草

简要论述了北方农牧交错带的自然地理特征,评述了农牧交错带历史时期以来北移西进造成与自然地带的错位,过度垦殖不仅导致交错带本身的生态破坏,还对黄河流域下游及华北平原带来严重的负面影响。依据自然界的地域分异规律对交错带及毗邻地区还林还草进行了分区,并在退耕还林还草背景下,对"三北"防护林工程做了评价,指出东北西部、华北北部山地造林完全正确,而内蒙古和西北广大地域不宜造林,当务之急应该是制止植被破坏,保护沙生植被、荒漠草原和典型草原植被。并建议有关决策部门对"三北"防护林工程进行重新审视。     

新疆博尔塔拉河表土孢粉组合与植被关系研究

博尔塔拉河流域位于中哈边境,其植被和土壤具有十分明显的垂直分布和区域性差异,根据该流域一条自西向东沿着海拔高度从210 m 到3 235 m 长约200多km的样带上所采集的人为干扰较少的49 个表土花粉样品的孢粉组合图式和现代植被样方调查资料,探讨了博尔塔拉河流域植被与表土花粉之间的关系。该区孢粉谱从上至下可划分为6个带,分别对应高山草甸带、亚高山草甸草原带、森林灌丛带、灌丛草原带、荒漠草原带、荒漠植被带。值得注意的是第6个孢粉带因含有具湿地特征的隐域性植被类型花粉组分,故又分成2个亚带,即荒漠植被亚带Ⅵ₁和荒漠植被亚带Ⅵ₂。森林灌丛植被带上限的云杉花粉含量明显比该带下限的含量高,表明云杉花粉的传播在沟谷地区受山谷风的影响较大。与此同时,将孢粉数据与气象数据相结合,分析结果得出比较有代表性的云杉属(Picea)、桦属(Betula)、藜科(Chenopodiaceae)、麻黄属(Ephedra)等花粉,与降水量和温度的关系较为密切。     

GIS based ecotourism potential assessment in Munessa Shashemene Concession Forest and its surrounding area,Ethiopia

This study aims to understand GIS based ecotourism potential of Munessa Shashemene Concession Forest and its surrounding area in Ethiopia. Landsat images from 2009/2010 and 2013 were used to drive baseline data including land cover, land use, stream and road. Elevation based agro-ecology and slope map were derived from SRTM DEM. Rapid wild animals survey, identifying the location of known historical, cultural and unique features were carried out in the filed with the help of key-informants. A suitability model was designed in GIS environment to assess the suitability of an area for tourism considering suitability factors such as land cover types, wild animal zone, unique features, topography and distance to a road. The result showed areas which are highly suitable, moderately suitable, marginally suitable, or unsuitable for tourism. The old giant, Podocarpus (Podocarpus falcatus) trees that serve as habitat of the endangered and endemic mountain nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni), were identified as very high suitable areas for tourists. The highly suitable areas include forest area along the lake which is seasonally visited by mountain nyala and areas of plantation forest that are found adjacent to natural forest. These areas follow remnants of the natural forest and found along boundary between the mid-highland and the highland agro-ecologies. The agricultural land use types consisting of maize/haricot-bean and wheat/barley were evaluated as marginally suitable, nevertheless these could be considered as potential for agri-tourism. The study revealed that the concession area is found to be a suitable area with its huge potential for ecotourism development.     

Research on the Suitability Evaluation of the Development and Utilization of Regional Selenium-rich Soil Resources and Spatial Zoning based on Niche Theory

Relying on the advantages of selenium-rich soil resources, the development of special selenium-rich agricultural industry is an effective measure to implement the rural revitalization strategy. This paper took Yuanzhou district as the research area, based on ecological niche theory, creatively determines the dominant and limiting factors of selenium-rich soil resources development and utilization from three aspects of natural resources endowment, land use conditions and ecological protection, constructed the evaluation index system of selenium-rich soil resources development and utilization and ecological niche suitability index measurement model, and explored the suitability of regional selenium-rich soil resources development and utilization and zoning. The research results show that: (1) The area suitable for exploitation of selenium-rich soil resources in the study area is 174658.4 ha, accounting for 68.83% of the total area, mainly distributed around Yuan River and in the central, northern, northwestern and northeastern areas of the study area. (2) Based on the evaluation results of the suitability of selenium-rich soil resources development and utilization and the development of related agricultural industries, the study area was divided into four functional zones of selenium-rich industrial development: core zone, key zone, development zone and radiation zone. The core zone and key zone are suitable for building selenium-rich agricultural industry demonstration area and selenium-rich products breeding production base, and the development zone and radiation zone can vigorously develop selenium-rich modern agriculture and selenium-rich recreation tourism, which will accelerate the development trend of multi-level and diversified selenium-rich industry in study area.This study can provide scientific, reasonable and feasible ideas and methods for the development and utilization of selenium-rich soil resources and the planning and development of selenium-rich industries in similar areas.     

风电场对草地植被生长影响分析——以内蒙古灰腾梁风电场为例

利用2000~2014年的MOD13Q1-NDVI数据,对内蒙古灰腾梁风电场及该电厂50 km缓冲区内的植被生长情况进行了分析。结合气象数据,重点探讨了风向对植被生长的影响。与2000~2008年风电场建设完成前植被生长相比,2008年后风电场运行对植被的生长产生了明显的影响,但影响范围和强度是不均匀的,结果表明：① 风电场运行对风电场区域内/外植被的影响机制是不同的,风电场区域内不利于植被的生长,而上/下风区域却有利于植被的生长;② 相对于风电场建成前,风电场建成后的2008 ~2014年缓冲区和风电场区域植被恢复比例分别上升了26.66%和13.14%,但上风区域却上升了51.83%,下风区域上升了41.07%。可见风电场上/下风区植被恢复比例,尤其是上风区植被的恢复比例要远高于其它区域;③ 距离风电场中心30~40 km的上风区很可能是受风电场影响最为明显的区域。     

乌兰布和沙漠人工绿洲沙害综合控制技术体系

将乌兰布和沙漠绿洲分为绿洲生态经济核心区、绿洲-荒漠生态缓冲区和自然荒漠生态恢复区3个功能区,基于各功能区的地貌、植被、土壤及沙害特征与沙源,立足因地制宜规划、因害设防整治的设计思想,提出“流沙固阻带、封沙育草带、防风阻沙带、绿洲防护林网”四带一体的综合防治体系防御流沙入侵,采用工程、农艺等应急措施体系控制绿洲内土壤风蚀和零星流沙的危害,为人工绿洲沙害的综合控制提供了科学依据。     

基于MODIS时序数据的中国西南地区主要植被生态系统干扰动态监测及分析

在自然或人为活动的干扰下,生态系统的正常功能或多或少受到影响.生态系统干扰信息可为跟踪气候变化响应、探寻全球碳循环路径和维系生态系统功能提供重要参考.飞速发展的遥感技术为生态系统干扰信息的获取提供了新的思路,高时空分辨率的遥感影像能及时有效地监测干扰事件发生的时间和位置.本文以中国西南地区为例,选用2005-2016年...     

兰新高铁大风区风况特征及防风工程设计分区

兰新高铁是世界上穿越最长风区、防风工程规模最大的铁路。大风严重威胁高铁的运营安全,查明兰新高铁沿线大风分布特征及危害特性极为重要和迫切。利用气候分析、天气诊断及实测校验等方法,结合兰新高铁沿线大风观测资料,找出了微地貌、特定气候导致的局部特大风速区段,确定了沿线大风风速、风向在平面、剖面方向的时空变化规律。基于地形、风力、大风频率及危害程度,将兰新高铁线路划分为五大风区的防风工程设计分区,即：大风极少区、大风低发区、大风一般区、大风易发区和大风频繁区。大风区线路应以降高度、小夹角、大半径为主要选线原则。防风工程的设计,应以大风工程分区为基础,评估不同工程风区环境下的列车安全特性,建立以大风工程分区匹配为主导,适合不同风区,结合设置条件的系统工程对策。     

Mapping fire regimes in China using MODIS active fire and burned area data

Relatively little is known about vegetation fire regimes in China. In this study, we investigated fire regime characteristics and their potential drivers, utilizing information extracted from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite. Twelve fire regime variables were selected and computed on a regular grid over all of China, using MODIS burned area and active fire data during the period 2001 to 2016, to identify fire incidence and its inter-annual variability, seasonality, intensity, fire size distribution and vegetation types affected by fire. The variables were normalized and clustered to define six fire regimes with distinctive fire attributes. Results show that 78.6% of the land in China was affected by fire during the study period. The barren or sparsely vegetated lands of western China are nearly fire-free. Active fires were observed in Central China, but area burned was not detectable from MODIS. Forest fires in northeastern China are relatively large, infrequent, with a short fire season that peaks in non-winter seasons and higher inter-annual variability, implying a high likelihood of accidental causes. In contrast, forest fires in southern China are relatively small, frequent, with a long fire season that peaks in non-summer seasons, and lower inter-annual variability, suggesting regular use as a land management tool. Low inter-annual variability and low fire intensity were associated with cropland fires, whereas grassland fires generally exhibit the opposite traits. We have also discussed the potential drivers of each fire regime characteristics.     

Vegetative succession and controlled fire in a glades ecosystem A geographical information system approach

Abstract

A geographical information system (GIS) approach was used successfully on a federal wilderness area in southwestern Missouri to examine vegetative succession relative to fire management in a glades ecosystem. Maps of vegetation were obtained by interpreting aerial photographs taken in 1938, 1958, 1966, 1975 and 1986. Maps of topography, streams, soils and the location of fires which burned during the period 1938 to 1986 were also procured from a variety of public agencies. All maps were digitized and incorporated into a raster-based GIS with 25 m pixels. It was concluded that (1) both glades and oak-hickory forest have an affinity for distinct physiographic areas and (2) fire can help decrease the rate of processes of natural succession which cause glades to convert to forest. The probable effects of controlled fire on three areas proposed by the Forest Service were evaluated and summarized.     

Use of GIS in Optimizing Timber Thinning Strategies in the Eastern Sierra Nevada*

This paper demonstrates the use of a Geographic Information System (GIS) to develop timber thinning strategies on the Kyburz Planning Area of the Tahoe National Forest in northeastern California. The primary criteria used in an assessment of selective thinning potential were forest health and fire hazard ratings. By eliminating environmentally sensitive, economically unfeasible, or low fire hazard areas from consideration, the use of GIS reduced the area that was considered appropriate for thinning by approximately 58%. GIS offers considerable potential for improving resource management strategies.     

Spatial patterns and drivers of fire occurrence in a Mediterranean environment: a case study of southern Croatia

Wildfires are an important factor of landscape dynamics in fire-prone environments of the world. In the Mediterranean, one of the most fire-susceptible environments globally, between 45,000 and 50,000 wildfires are recorded every year, causing disturbances in forest and grassland ecosystems. As a Mediterranean country, Croatia faces these problems, averaging over 1000 registered wildfires annually, with the coastal areas dominated by forest fires and continental Croatia by fires on agricultural lands. This research combines various landscape and socio-economic factors in the analysis of fire occurrence in Croatia’s southernmost region of Dalmatia. Around 275 of the largest fires (encompassing 98% of the total burnt area) registered in 2013 were investigated using OLS, and different spatial indices were employed to analyse regional variability in fire distribution. The results revealed that areas more prone to fires are the northern inland areas of Dalmatia and its entire coastal zone. Altitude and vegetation type demonstrated a correlation with fire occurrence, but an increase in population in the study area was also correlated with wildfire occurrence. Regarding vegetation, the grasslands and Mediterranean shrubland (maquis) were found to be the most fire-prone vegetation types in the study region, the distribution of which can be linked to different socio-economic and demographic processes occurring in the Eastern Adriatic.     

宁夏植被覆盖动态变化及与气候因子的关系

利用1999-2009年的SPOT-VGT NDVI数据,计算出宁夏近11 a来的植被覆盖度,对其变化特征进行了研究,结合同期气象观测资料,从空间上分析了植被覆盖度与区域气候因子之间的关系。结果表明,南部六盘山区和北部引黄灌区植被覆盖度高,而中部干旱带等地区的植被覆盖度较低,但中部干旱带却有较高的绝对变化率;从时间变化来看,近11 a来宁夏大部分地区的植被覆盖度在逐年增加。植被覆盖度的变化与气候因子有关,除引黄灌区和六盘山林区外,中部干旱带等地的植被覆盖度与降水呈正相关,区域气候的干湿波动,影响了植被覆盖度的高低;在有灌溉保障条件的农业垦殖区,植被覆盖度还与气温呈正相关,即有效积温的增加,会促进农作物生长,从而导致区域植被的覆盖度提高。     

Porting of a wildfire risk and fire spread application into a cloud computing environment

Effective wildfire management is an essential part of forest firefighting strategies to minimize damage to land resources and loss of human lives. Wildfire management tools often require a large number of computing resources at a specific time. Such computing resources are not affordable to local fire agencies because of the extreme upfront costs on hardware and software. The emerging cloud computing technology can be a cost- and result-effective alternative. The purpose of this paper is to present the development and the implementation of a state-of-the-art application running in cloud computing, composed of a wildfire risk and a wildfire spread simulation service. The two above applications are delivered within a web-based interactive platform to the fire management agencies as Software as a Service (SaaS). The wildfire risk service calculates and provides daily to the end-user maps of the hourly forecasted fire risk for the next 112 hours in high spatiotemporal resolution, based on forecasted meteorological data. In addition, actual fire risk is calculated hourly, based on meteorological conditions provided by remote automatic weather stations. Regarding the wildfire behavior simulation service, end users can simulate the fire spread by simply providing the ignition point and the projected duration of the fire, based on the HFire algorithm. The efficiency of the proposed solution is based on the flexibility to scale up or down the number of computing nodes needed for the requested processing. In this context, end users will be charged only for their consumed processing time and only during the actual wildfire confrontation period. The system utilizes both commercial and open source cloud resources. The current prototype is applied in the study area of Lesvos Island, Greece, but its flexibility enables expansion in different geographical areas.     

荒漠草原区风力发电场建设前后的植被变化

调查了甘肃景泰荒漠草原区一处风电场基础设施建设和运行对植被的影响。结果表明:荒漠草原区百兆瓦级风力发电场建设造成直接植被生产力损失量为6.79 g·m^-2·a^-1,间接植被生产力损失量为91.43 g·m^-2·a^-1。随着扰动程度增加,物种丰富度降低,均匀度减小。在工程运行后,经历近10 a的自然恢复,核心扰动区虽然物种单一,但植被生产力是次级扰动区的两倍以上,为间接扰动区和未扰动区的50%和33%左右;而间接扰动区植被生产力仅为未扰动区的50%。总体上,风电工程扰动对区域植被的影响,不仅在于建设期对局地群落植被生产力的完全丧失,更重要的是在运行期间对周边大面积间接影响区群落植被生产力的大幅度降低,而且这种影响是长期和持续性的。     

东北地区植被分布全球气候变化区域响应

根据东北地区生态气候环境和生物地理规律对Holdridge生命地带分类系统进行修正,将东北地区植被分为寒温带湿润森林、寒温带潮湿森林、温带湿润森林、暖温带湿润森林、温带半湿润森林草甸草原、温带半湿润草甸草原、温带半干旱典型草原、暖温带半湿润草甸草原和暖温带半干旱典型草原等9 个生命地带并分析了其空间分布特征。运用大气环流模式分析东北地区由于温室气体增加导致的气候变化趋势。以此为基础评价东北地区植被分布的区域响应。全球气候变暖情景下,东北地区暖温带和温带范围明显扩大,而寒温带范围缩小甚至退出东北地区,植被分布界限显著北移;同时湿润区面积减少半湿润区和半干旱区扩大,导致森林面积缩小草原面积扩大。     

基于POI数据的巨型城市消防站空间优化——以北京市五环内区域为例

消防站的空间布局事关城市发展与城市安全。本文以北京市五环内中心城区为研究区,使用44.34万条POI数据和道路网等相关数据,考虑易燃易爆、人群脆弱等不同特征的火灾风险因子,采用核密度分析、SAVEE模型等方法,识别出研究区内的火灾风险空间分布,进一步借助“位置—分配”模型和网络分析,并结合优化目标对研究区内消防站进行空间优化。主要研究结论为：①按照火灾风险从高到低排序,前10%的火灾风险区域主要集中在CBD—三里屯、北京古玩城—双井、王府井、南锣鼓巷—雍和宫等区域。②现有消防站对全部44.34万个POI请求点5分钟响应时间内的覆盖率为96.46%,总体覆盖效果较好,但在研究区西北和西南部的世纪城—闵庄一带覆盖不足。③综合考虑高火灾风险区、重要火灾风险因子、POI总体覆盖率和个体消防站覆盖面积相关标准等因素,经多次迭加运算分析得到最终需新增15个消防站点。优化后的各指标均有较大提升,可满足研究区的消防需求。     

基于植被分区的秦岭年降水分区验证及其年际变化

通过旋转经验正交分解方法对秦岭年降水量进行分区,比较秦岭降水量客观分区与植被南北分界线的一致性,运用滑动t检验、累积距平和小波方法分析了各分区的气候变化特征。主要结论为：秦岭区域可以按年降水量分为4个区域,其中秦岭中段南北分区与植被分区界线相近,走向相同;秦岭各分区多年降水量一致表现为减少趋势,近57年来,各区大约减少了一成左右的降水量;秦岭区域年降水量在近57年里发生了多次转折,最明显的转折期发生在20世纪80年代,2001年前后秦岭区域降水出现了波动增加的趋势,但增加的趋势强度还比较弱,难以达到20世纪80年代的丰水顶峰时期;秦岭各分区最显著震荡周期2~4年。建议在开展气候区划和气候变化研究时,应该考虑年降水量分区与植被自然分区的一致性。