基于CMIP5预估21世纪中国近海海洋环境变化

过去百年来人类活动排放的温室气体已经改变了全球海洋的物理和化学属性,并且,这种变化在未来很可能持续下去.基于IPCC第五次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)中IPSL-CM5A-MR地球系统模式的模拟结果,评估了未来百年(~2100年)中国近海区域的海洋环境要素(温度、盐度、溶解氧、pH值和叶绿素a浓度)的变化趋势及空间分布特征.结果表明,未来不同的温室气体排放情景下中国近海区域海温升高、溶解氧(DO)含量减少、海水pH值降低和叶绿素a浓度减少,并且温室气体排放越多上述变化越显著.东中国海区(包括渤海、黄海和东海)盐度可能会增加,而南海盐度会降低.在相同的温室气体排放情景下,东中国海区海温增加、溶解氧减少、海水pH值降低和叶绿素a浓度减少的幅度均显著高于南海区域.在中等浓度和高浓度排放情景(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)情景下,到21世纪末期(2090~2100年间)东中国海相对于历史时期(1980~2005年)的升温幅度可能将分别会超过2、4℃,海水pH值降低幅度将可能分别超过0.15和0.30,并且海洋变暖和酸化还将很可能引起DO含量和叶绿素a浓度的进一步降低,最终影响整个海区的环境与生态.因此,未来东中国海生态系统和生物多样性将面临严重风险,这也使得应对气候变化的适应性措施成为当前的紧迫议题.     

基于IPCC-CMIP5的中国东部近海表层水温未来预估分析

近海海表温度（sea surface temperature,SST）的变化对我国沿岸海洋生态环境和渔业资源具有重要影响,研究其变化规律尤其是预估其未来变化一直是物理海洋学的重要研究课题。政府间气候变化专门委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC）第五次评估报告（The fifth Assessment Report,AR5）对全球及部分典型区域的未来气候变化进行了预估,已成为全球公认的研究气候变化的科学依据。本文利用IPCC第五次评估报告的模式比较计划（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5,CMIP5）中五个具有代表性的模式（ACCESS1.3、BCC-CSM1.1、CCSM4、GFDL-ESM2G、MPI-ESM-MR）,对未来80年（2030、2060、2090年）相对于2010年中国东部近海（渤海、黄海、东海）表层水温的年代际及季节性变化规律在RCP4.5气候情景下进行了预估分析。通过分析发现中国东部近海表层水温在未来80年内有明显升温趋势：从年代际上看,到2090年表层水温升温幅度达1.18—1.71℃,其中2030—2060年升温最快,2060—2090年升温速度减缓;从季节上看,不同海域不同季节表层水温升温幅度达1.16—2.04℃,中国东部近海各海区在夏季升温幅度较大,冬季较小。     

未来中国近海海冰变化特征的预估研究

基于耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的全球气候预估数据,分析了黄、渤海区域内海表面2m气温的增量,并将该增量叠加在1978—2008年的再分析气象场上,驱动海冰-海洋耦合模式,对2015—2045年黄、渤海的海冰变化特征进行了预估。结果显示:在RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5 4种排放情景下,辽东湾、渤海湾、莱州湾和黄海北部4个海湾的海冰均呈现显著减少的趋势。但随着排放增多,4个海湾的海冰并非单调的减少,而在RCP4.5下减少最多,RCP6.0和RCP8.5次之,RCP2.6最少。对4种情景下的海冰冰情进行平均,可以发现4个海湾结冰面积依次减少438、121、23和84 km2;结冰范围依次减少9、7、2和7 nmi(海里,1 nmi=1.852 km)。就整个黄、渤海而言,未来31a内结冰面积减少24%,结冰范围减少19%,持续天数缩短10%。     

CMIP5模式对中国近海海表温度的模拟及预估

基于观测和再分析资料;利用多种指标和方法评估了国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中21个模式对中国近海海温的月、季节和年际变化模拟能力。多模式集合能够再现气候平均意义下近海海温的空间分布特征;但量值上存在一定的低估。在渤海和黄海;集合平均与观测差别比较明显。在年际尺度上;与观测数据对比;模式模拟海温与Niño3指数相关性较小。中国近海海表面温度在1960-2002年有明显的升高趋势;从2003年开始增温趋缓。评估结果表明;ACCESS1.0、BCC-CSM1.1、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM、FGOALS-g2、CNRM-CM5-2、INMCM4八个模式对中国近海海温的变化有较好的模拟能力。利用ACCESS1.0、INMCM4、BCC-CSM1.1、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM这5个模式结果对中国近海海温未来的变化进行了预估。在RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下;未来近100年中国近海海温有明显升高趋势;最优模式多模式集合平均增温分别可达到1.5℃、3.3℃;净热通量变化和平流变化共同促进了东海升温。     

长江口及邻近海域浮游植物生态系统气候变化综合风险评估

近几十年来,在气候变化和人类活动的影响下,我国近岸河口海域尤其是长江口及邻近海域生态灾害频繁发生,严重影响了海洋生态系统的健康及其服务功能。本研究基于政府间气候变化专门委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC）气候变化风险理论框架,构建了河口浮游植物生态系统的气候变化综合风险评估指标体系,并利用IPCC 第五次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）地球系统模式数据,分别计算分析了在温室气体低（RCP 2.6）、中等（RCP 4.5）和高（RCP 8.5）浓度排放情景下未来不同时期（2030—2039、2050—2059、2090—2099年）长江口及邻近海域浮游植物生态的致灾因子危害性、承灾体暴露度和脆弱性及其综合风险。结果表明： RCP 2.6、4.5和8.5情景下,到21世纪中期,致灾因子危害性均有明显上升,其中RCP 4.5和8.5情景下,到21世纪末,还将大幅度增加,且以RCP 8.5情景最为显著,而RCP 2.6情景下则相反,有所下降;RCP 2.6情景下,高暴露度区域主要位于长江口附近,不同年代的变化差异较小;RCP 4.5和8.5情景下高暴露度区域明显大于RCP 2.6情景,尤其是后者到21世纪末期扩大至长江口邻近海域;脆弱性总体呈现近岸高远岸低的分布特征,且变化均较小;RCP 2.6、4.5和8.5情景下,综合风险均呈现近岸高远岸低,且有增加的趋势,但以RCP 8.5情景最为明显,并在21世纪末达到最大。     

CMIP6模式对中国近海气象要素模拟评估与预测

为了研究第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中新提出的“情景模式比较计划”(ScenarioMIP)下中国近海气象要素的变化情况,本文选取了其中6个海气耦合模型,对其模拟的风速、气温、降水进行评估与预测。评估结果表明选取的模式对中国近海模拟效果整体都不错,但在菲律宾群岛附近模拟结果相对欠佳。模型平均预估结果表明未来21世纪中叶4个情景下渤黄海风速夏季增加、冬季减弱;至21世纪末,研究海域夏季15°N以北(南)风速主要呈增加(减小)的趋势,冬季25°N以北(南)风速主要呈减小(增加)的趋势。4个未来情景下的中国近海气温都将持续升高,高纬区域增幅大于低纬。可持续发展情景(SSP1-2.6)能有效减缓升温,其他放任温室气体大量排放的情景(如SSP5-8.5),则会加剧升温。未来中国近海降水变化总体上呈增加趋势,渤黄海与东海降水增幅在SSP5-8.5情景下最大,世纪末分别增加约15.87%与5.61%;南海降水增幅在SSP2-4.5情景下最大,世纪末增加约4.84%。     

二氧化碳的海洋处理

世界野生动物基金会和世界海洋生态保护研究所的报告指出,由于CO_2和其它废气的大量排放,使地球周围大气层变厚,阻碍了地表热量的散发,从而导致地球气候变暖,海水温度也随之升高。据统计,在过去的60年中,某些海区水温升高达3华氏度。如不加以控制,下个世纪海水温度将升高5.5华氏度。海水的升温,不仅导致了类似厄尔尼诺现象等海洋灾害     

CMIP5模式对南海SST的模拟和预估

分析了32个CMIP5模式对南海历史海表温度(SST)的模拟能力和不同排放情景下未来SST变化的预估。通过检验各气候模式对南海历史SST增温趋势和均方差的模拟,发现大部分模式都能较好地模拟出南海20世纪历史SST的基本特征和变化规律,但也有部分模式的模拟存在较大偏差。尽管这些模拟偏差较大的模式对SST多模式集合平均的影响不大,但会增加未来情景预估的不确定性。剔除15个模式后,分析了南海SST在RCP26、RCP45和RCP85三种排放情景下的变化趋势,发现在未来百年呈明显的增温趋势,多模式集合平均的增温趋势分别为0.42、1.50和3.30℃/(100a)。这些增温趋势在空间上变化不大,但随时间并不是均匀变化的。在前两种排放情景下,21世纪前期的增温趋势明显强于后期,而在RCP85情景下,21世纪后期的增温趋势强于前期。     

CMIP5模式对登陆中国热带气旋活动的模拟和预估

基于中国气象局热带气旋最佳路径数据集,结合7个全球耦合模式在4个气候情景(Historical、RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5)下的模拟场,对比分析了模式模拟1986—2005年登陆我国热带气旋(LTC)活动的气候特征,并评估了未来(2026—2045年)不同气候情景下LTC活动的频数和强度变化特征。结果表明:在Historical情景下虽然各模式模拟的1986—2005年LTC均少于观测值,但仍然较好的再现LTC的季节分布、地理位置分布和强度分布特征。未来气候情景下不同强度LTC的频数预估则显示,相对于Historical情景,RCP2.6和RCP8.5情景下较弱的LTC有减少的趋势,而较强的LTC则表现为略微的增加。另外,对比不同模式的结果可以发现,模式中若中国大陆近海区域平均垂直风切变和海平面气压较大,则其对应的LTC活动较少;若模式中海表温度较高,则LTC的平均登陆强度较大。     

全球变化背景下暖水珊瑚礁生态系统的适应性与修复研究

暖水珊瑚礁生态系统是热带海域最具生物多样性和代表性的生态系统之一。本研究分析了全球变化背景下暖水珊瑚礁生态系统的变化和风险,开展了受损暖水珊瑚礁生态系统退化和消失的致灾因子归因分析,综述了暖水珊瑚礁生态系统的适应性与修复技术研究。分析表明:①过去几十年来,暖水珊瑚礁生态系统快速退化,包括大面积白化和死亡、多样性明显减少和生态功能显著衰退,主要归因于海洋升温与人类活动等致灾因子的影响;②在温室气体高排放浓度情景下(RCP 8.5),相比工业革命前,到本世纪中叶,南海升温将可能远超过2℃,这表明南海暖水珊瑚礁生态系统正在逼近其气候临界点,即全球升温高于2℃时,90%~99%以上的暖水珊瑚将消失;③1980年代以来,海洋升温、海洋热浪和强热带气旋等海洋气候变化致灾因子对南海暖水珊瑚的危害性(影响的强度、范围和时间)明显增加,对暖水珊瑚礁生态系统产生了严重的影响;与此同时,近岸海域的过度或破坏性捕捞、采挖和潜水等人类活动,对暖水珊瑚造成了严重损害,增加了暖水珊瑚的气候脆弱性,而这种人类活动既是局部的,也是全球性的现象,使得暖水珊瑚更难以适应全球变暖的影响。分析还表明,为了增强暖水珊瑚适应气候与环境变化的恢复力(韧性),人们开展了诸多受损珊瑚礁生态系统的适应性与修复研究,但主要是采用无性繁殖或结合人工基质的修复方式,而应用有性繁殖技术恢复受损珊瑚礁的方式仍较少;最近,暖水珊瑚耐热的基因适应性研究取得了重要进展,为暖水珊瑚适应全球变暖提供了一种新的途径。本研究最后探讨了中国受损珊瑚礁生态系统的修复问题与对策。     

Microbial Biomass and Organic Nutrients in the Deep-Sea Sediments of the Central Indian Ocean Basin

In order to assess the impact of deep-sea mining on the in situ benthic life, we measured the microbial standing stock and concentration of organic nutrients in the deep-sea sediments of the Central Indian Ocean Basin in the Indian pioneer area. Sediments were collected using box core and grab samples during September 1996. The total bacterial numbers ranged from 10 10 -10 11 cells per g -1 dry weight sediment. There was a marginal decrease in the number of bacteria from surface to 30 cm depth, though the subsurface section registered a higher number than did the surface. The highest numbers were encountered at depths of 4-8 cm. The retrievable number of bacteria were two orders less in comparison with the direct total counts of bacteria. An almost homogeneous distribution of bacteria, total organic carbon, living biomass, and lipids throughout the depth of cores indicates active microbial and benthic processes in the deep sea sediments. On the other hand, a uniform distribution of total counts of bacteria, carbohydrates, and total organic carbon in all the cores indicates their stable nature and suggests that they can serve as useful parameters for long-term monitoring of the area after the benthic disturbance. Further studies on temporal variability in this region would not only verify the observed norms of distribution of these variables but would also help to understand restabilization processes after the simulated benthic disturbance.     

海上大直径钢管桩打桩过程中桩周土强度弱化研究

海上大直径钢管桩打桩过程中,桩周土体受到强烈扰动而发生强度弱化,掌握桩周土体强度弱化规律对于准确预测打桩过程、保证工程安全具有重要意义。为研究土体强度弱化规律,开展了环剪试验模拟打桩对桩周土体的扰动,测试土体强度随剪切速率的变化规律,建立了描述土体强度弱化规律的拟合公式,引入到打桩分析软件中。研究结果表明：土体的强度折减程度不仅与土体本身的性质有关还受到土体的埋深和剪切速率的影响,埋深越深土体强度折减程度越低,剪切速率越高土体强度折减越高,在打桩分析中可采用这里推荐的线性折减方法来模拟不同深度处土体强度的折减规律。     

Geoacoustic Inversion via Genetic Algorithm and Its Application to Manganese Sediment Identification

An acoustic inversion method using a wide-band signal and two near field receivers is proposed and applied to multiple layered seabed models including a manganese sediment. The inversion problem can be formulated into a probabilistic model comprised of signals, a forward model, and additive noise. The forward model simulates wide-band signals, such as chirp signals, and is chosen to be the source-waveletconvolution plane wave modeling method. The wavelet matching technique, using weighted least-squares fitting, estimates the sediment sound-speed and thickness on which determination of the possible numerical ranges for a priori uniform distribution is based. The genetic algorithm is applied to a global optimization problem to find a maximum a posteriori solution for determined a priori search space. Here the object function is defined by an L 2 norm of the difference between measured and modeled signals. Not only the marginal pdf but also its statistics are calculated by numerical evaluation of integrals using the samples selected during importance sampling process of the genetic algorithm.     

Phylogenetic diversity and phenotypic characterization of cultivable bacterioplankton isolated from polar oceans

A set of 27 marine planktonic bacteria isolated from the polar regions was characterized by 16S rDNA sequencing and physiological and biochemical testing. More than half of these bacteria were positive for caseinase, gelatinase and 13-glucosidase, and could utilize glucose, maltose or malic acid as carbon source for cell growth. Twelve isolates expressed nitrate reduction activities. Except for one antarctic isolate BSwlO175 belonging to Actinobacteria phylum, these isolates were classified as γ-Proteobacteria, suggesting that γ-Proteobacteria dominated in cultivable marine bacterioplankton at both poles. Genus Pseudoalteromonas was the predominant group in the Chukchi Sea and the Bering Sea, and genus ShewaneUa dominated in cultivable bacterioplankton in the Prydz Bay. With sequence similarities above 97%, genus Psychrobacter was found at both poles. These 27 isolates were psychrotolerant, and significant 16S rDNA sequence similarities were found not only between arctic and antarctic marine bacteria （ 〉 99% ）, but also between polar marine bacteria and bacteria from other aquatic environments （ ≥ 98.8% ）, including temperate ocean, deep sea, pond and lake, suggesting that in the polar oceans less temperature-sensitive bacteria may be cosmopolitan and have a bipolar, even global, distribution at the species level.     

Deep-Sea Sediment Compression Curves: Some Controlling Factors, Spurious Overconsolidation, Predictions, and Geophysical Reproduction

Oedometer tests have been carried out on 70 undisturbed surficial clays (at approximately 250 mm below the mudline), mostly collected by free-fall corers from sites widely scattered throughout the deep-sea North Atlantic. Acoustic measurements were also made, initially on contiguous samples and ultimately on the same sample using a geophysically instrumented oedometer which also collected electrical resistivity data. Apart from those quiescent areas below the carbonate compensation depth, such as north of the West Indies where very fine clays exist, most of the samples are silty clays whose geotechnical-geophysical properties are dependent on the type of clay minerals present (and their ability to take in moisture), the sand-size fraction, and the quantity of carbonate present. Thus the pure clays have high compressibilities which decrease on the addition of coarse particles, while the converse is true for the acoustic parameters, these increasing with the sand fraction. Using the notion of the intrinsic compression line for all samples, and comparison to it of the measured compression curves, it is clear that, contrary to some previously held ideas, most deep-sea clays are normally consolidated; the addition of carbonate has the effect of creating an open, stronger sediment skeleton. Interestingly, where information is available, the variation with depth of a sample's acoustic velocity follows the void ratio pressure relationship of the compression curve. This allows the construction of an in-situ sediment compression curve using the in-situ geophysical observations.     

INFORMATION FOR AUTHORS

<正>Acta Oceanologica Sinica(AOS)is a comprehensive academic journal edited by the Editorial Committee of Acta Oceanologica Sinica and is designed to provide a forum for important research papers of the marine scientific community which reflect the information on a worldwide basis.The journal publishes scholarly papers on marine science and technology,including physics,chemistry,biology,     

Estimation of Sediment Properties during Benthic Impact Experiments

Sediment properties, such as water content and density, have been used to estimate the dry and wet weights, as well as the volume of sediment recovered and discharged, during benthic impact experiments conducted in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The estimates show that the weights of dry (355-1332 t) and wet sediment (1651-4888 t) recovered during the experiments, are not only a function of the total duration and distance covered during the experiment, but also depend on water content and density of the sediment. Estimation of dry sediment and its volumetric ratio in the discharge, are key parameters for calculating the discharged volume. The estimated volume of wet sediment recovered (1427-4049 m 3 ) as well as discharged (2693-6951 m 3 ) during the experiments, provide important inputs to evaluate the sediment resettlement and migration. Using these estimates, the average depth of excavation on the seafloor, can also been calculated. However, the stages of sediment recovery and discharge are expressed differently in some of the experiments. In order to standardize these, different stages have been identified, and definitions of certain terms have been suggested, for use in the future. The methods of calculating different properties, as well as weight and volume of discharged sediment are described in the paper for use in other applications concerning deep-sea discharges.