中国城镇居民人均可支配收入与消费支出的关系研究——基于变系数模型的分析

利用我国城镇居民人均可支配收入与消费支出的面板数据(1991-2009),采用变系数模型、协整理论等时间序列分析方法对其消费行为进行实证检验,并建立了城镇居民的消费模型,分析了边际消费倾向和自发性消费。结果表明:可支配收入与其消费支出之间存在着长期均衡的关系;当期收入是影响居民消费的最直接、最重要的因素,并据此提出相应的一些政策建议。     

基于ECM模型的成都市城镇居民收入与消费问题的实证研究

利用成都市1978—2007年度的城镇居民可支配收入和人均消费支出数据,构建误差修正模型进行了实证研究,结果显示：成都市城镇居民人均消费支出和可支配收入两变量存在协整关系;人均可支配收入是影响消费支出最根本的原因;由于误差修正系数为负数,符合反向修正机制,使得短期的消费政策无效。因此,长期来看,政府必须采取有效措施提高居民的可支配收入,优化供给和消费结构,才能实现扩大内需的政策目标。     

我国居民消费支出结构与收入水平关系的研究

在对消费结构和收入水平进行现状分析的基础上，运用灰色关联原理对城乡居民各类消费支出与可支配收入水平的关系进行了量化分析，以期对随着可支配收入的增加，消费支出结构的变动情况有一个全面的了解，为有关部门进行产品结构调整和科学预测、国家制定相关政策提供依据与建议。     

广东省城镇居民消费结构变动的定量分析

利用扩展的线性支出系统(ELES)，依据1997年及2003年广东省城镇居民年人均可支配收入和消费支出的截面数据，对广东城镇居民消费结构的变动情况进行定量分析。分析结果表明，广东城镇居民在“衣”和“食”得到满足之余，越来越重视对“住”与“行”的消费，同时，对精神文化、教育、交往联络、自身健康和保健也越来越关注，并提出了促进广东城镇居民消费结构优化和升级的几点建议。     

广东省城镇居民消费结构变动的定量分析

利用扩展的线性支出系统(ELES),依据1997年及2003年广东省城镇居民年人均可支配收入和消费支出的截面数据,对广东城镇居民消费结构的变动情况进行定量分析。分析结果表明,广东城镇居民在“衣”和“食”得到满足之余,越来越重视对“住”与“行”的消费,同时,对精神文化、教育、交往联络、自身健康和保健也越来越关注,并提出了促进广东城镇居民消费结构优化和升级的几点建议。     

四川省农村居民收入与消费的协整研究

通过对1978-2007年四川省农村居民收入与消费的协整分析,发现农村居民的收入与消费之间存在着长期均衡的关系,在协整检验的基础上,建立了误差修正模型,说明了误差修正系数对偏离长期均衡的调整力度.     

运用BP网络预测地下水位

人工神经网络是一门新兴的交叉学科，是处理非线性问题的有效方法。本文把影响地下水位的因素集作为网络的输入向量，地下水位本身作为网络的输出向量，构成了预测地下水位的ＢＰ网络模型。一个实例的应用实践表明，用ＢＰ网络预测地下水位较准确地反映了客观实际，比其它方法如回归模型具有较高的拟合精度和预测精度。     

并行网络机群的网络通信时间分析

LogP模型作为一种并行算法设计模型，它的性能参数较好地反映了并行计算的实际问题。讨论了它的特点，分析了轻载条件下的网络延迟、额外开销时间，并对相应参数进行试验测试。提出在网络机群并行计算环境中，依据LogP模型设计并行算法，以粗粒度发送长消息是减少通信开销，提高并行效率的有效方法。     

基于CLUE-S模型的长沙市望城区土地利用变化预测

针对长沙市望城区未来土地利用在类型数量和空间分布上的变化预测问题,在该区2009～2012年期间土地利用/覆盖现状图的基础上,提出了通过Markov链模型预测类型数量、利用CLUE-S模型预测空间分布的土地利用变化预测方法。在综合影响该区土地利用变化的地形、距离驱动因子的基础上,利用CLUE-S模型预测了研究区2012年和2020年的土地利用空间分布状况。实验表明,2012年土地利用预测结果得到了较高的Kappa系数和ROC值,间接证明了2020年的预测结果具有一定的可信度,对该区土地资源优化配置具有一定的参考价值和借鉴意义。     

WQS网络通信系统应急备用系统的设计思路

从气象通信实时业务角度出发，根据目前业务环境状况，充分利用现有微机设备，提出了一种投入少、见效快、便于维护管理的ＷＱＳ网络通信系统的应急备用系统设计思路。从技术路线建设的可行性及方法上，对该设计思路作了比较详细、具体的阐述。     

Foreword

正Rapid changes of Arctic sea ice cover have been in the focus of the international climate research community in recent years.Quite a few of nations have completed a large number of related surveys and research projects in the Arctic Ocean.Up to now,China has performed six research cruises to the Arctic Ocean resulting in a significant volume of research output.Improved knowledge on the atmospheree-sea ice-ocean interactions in the Arctic is a     

Thermohaline structure inhomogeneity associated with polynia at the northern margin of Emery Ice-shelf

Based on the hydrographic data in austral summer during the 22nd Antarctic Expedition of China(2005/2006),some features can be found about the northern margin of Emery ice shelf as follows.The heat content in the surface layer(0-50 m) at the eastern end and the western end of the ice-shelf margin is much higher than that at the middle.The upper mixing-layer depth and the seasonal thermocline depth at the middle of the ice-shelf northern margin are much shallower than those at the both ends.However there is much less difference between the middle and the ends in the bottom layer.The remote sensing photos show that the inhomogeneity in the surface-layer water is closely related to the spatial distribution of the floes and polynia in the area.     

Exposure ages and radiogenic ages of ureilite(GRV 024516) and ordinary chondrite(GRV 024517) from Antarctica

The GRV 024516 and GRV 024517 meteorite samples collected from Grove Montains,Antactica are ureilite and H5 ordinary chondrite,respectively.Based on the study of mineralogy-petrology,the cosmic-ray exposure ages and gas retention ages of these two meteorites were determinated and calculated.Their cosmic-ray exposure ages are 33.3 Ma,51.7 Ma,and gas retention ages are 1936.8 Ma and 3720 Ma,respectively.The ureilite contains diamond,graphite and amorphous C,which are mainly carrier of noble gases indicating obviously shock metamorphism effects,which induced 40Ar partial loss.The H5 chondrite indicates thermal metamorphism of parent body,its gas retention age fall the range between 3220 Ma and 4510 Ma of the least shocked H5 chondrites     

Phylogenetic analysis of cultivable bacteria isolated from Arctic sea-ice

Phylogenetic analysis based on 16S rDNA of 8 strains of cultivable bacteria isolated from Arctic sea-ice was studied.The results showed that strain BJ1 belonged to genus Planococcus,which was a genus of low mole percent G C gram-positive bacteria;strain BJ6 belonged to genus Burkholderia of β-proteobacteria and the rest 6 strain all belonged to γ-proteobacteria,of which strain BJ8 was a species of Pseudoalteromonas,strain BJ2-BJ5 and BJ7 were members of genus Psychrobacter.Phylogenetic analysis also indicated that bacteria of genus Psychrobacter of the isolates formed a relatively independent phylogenetic cluster in comparison with other bacteria belonged to genus Psychrobacter.     

Information for authors

正1 Aims and Scope Advances in Polar Science(APS)is an international,peer-reviewed journal jointly sponsored by the Polar Research Institute of China and the Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration.APS is a comprchensive academic journal dedicated to presentation of multi-disciplinary achievements in Arctic and Antarctic expeditions and research.Its primary purpose is to publish achievements in fundamental research,applied     

Advances in Polar Science CONTENTS(Volume 25,2014)

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Guide to Authors： Journal of Mountain Science

<正>AIMS AND SCOPE(Editorial Policy)The Journal of Mountain Science(JMS)is devoted to mountains and their surrounding lowlands-ecoregions of particular global importance,with a particular emphasis on the important highlands/mountains in the world,such as the Tibetan Plateau,the Himalayas,the Alps,the Andes,the Rockies and many other mountain ranges of our planet.     

Journal of Mountain Science(JMS)

<正>The Journal of Mountain Science(JMS),founded in2004,is an international English-language journal on mountain sciences.JMS is supervised by the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS),sponsored by the Chengdu Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,CAS,published by Science Press China,and distributed by Springer exclusively throughout the world(excluding Mainland China).The JMS is published bimonthly,fulltexted in SpringerLink and CNKI,indexed/abstracted by